10:15am: Cavalli will make $862.5K in 2026, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club option is worth $4MM and comes with a buyout of $7.5K, guaranteeing Cavalli $870K in total.
9:14am: The Nationals announced this morning that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Cade Cavalli. The sides agreed to a one-year deal today that includes a club option for the 2027 season. Financial details of the deal are not yet clear. Cavalli was one of 18 players to exchange filing figures with his team after failing to reach an agreement prior to the deadline earlier this month. Cavalli filed at $900K, while the Nationals filed at $825K.
That $75K gap between the two sides was the smallest among the 18 players and teams to exchange figures. Even with such a tiny gap in negotiations, however, there was no guarantee that an arbitration hearing would be avoided. Teams overwhelmingly subscribe to the “file and trial” approach towards arbitration at this point, and the Nationals are no exception. Teams tend to hold a firm line in arbitration negotiations and are willing to fight over even small amounts of money. That’s partially because player salaries tend to build off themselves throughout arbitration, and even a small pay bump in an early year of arbitration can snowball into much larger gains for the player three or four years down the road. In addition, arbitration hearings are so focused on precedent that offering one player a salary above the usual range can create an outlier case for players and agents to use as a comparison point in future hearings.
In this case, the Nationals and Cavalli have bridged the gap by using a loophole in the arbitration system. By attaching a club option to the deal, it technically becomes a multi-year arrangement that cannot be used as a reference point in future arbitration negotiations and hearings. Without the cloud of creating a new precedent hanging over the negotiations, the Nationals were surely more comfortable being flexible with Cavalli and were more motivated to avoid what could have been a messy arbitration hearing that runs the risk of damaging the club’s relationship with a former top prospect who could remain a key part of their team for years to come.
Looking ahead to 2026, Cavalli will attempt to build off of a 2025 season where he made it back to the majors for the first time since 2022 and delivered a decent 4.25 ERA across ten starts. He struck out 18.3% of his opponents while walking 6.8%. Solid underlying metrics, including a 4.09 SIERA, suggest that Cavalli could be a solid mid-rotation arm for the Nationals next year even if him reaching the ace-level ceiling fans in D.C. were surely dreaming on when he was selected 22nd overall in the 2020 draft appears unlikely at this point. Cavalli will join MacKenzie Gore (assuming he isn’t traded before the season begins), Foster Griffin, and Brad Lord among the team’s likely starters headed into the years. Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker are among the possible options to fill out that group.
Bully for him.
Anyone know his story? The name sounds so familiar. Looking at his stats. Did he make one start and have TJ?
Good for him. To often guys come back to early.
It sounds like you’re trying to say it isn’t good for him because it wasn’t good for the team, which makes zero sense
Extend him. Strike while his salary is low.
His career ERA is 5+, WHIP is 1.51, has not had 50 K’s. Why extend him?
Agreed. Parker and Irvin were the two worst starters in the National League, last year. The bullpen was even worse, though.
Nick, thanks for the explanation of the penny-ante aspect of arbitration. Even when there’s an economic justification, with payrolls of $150-$200 million it seems cheap for a team to hold out with a player over $50-$100k.
They have Lord and just resigned Gott. Just need to sign Tim Teufel to coach and they’ll be fine
There’s got to be an Angel Somebody they can sign.
They could come up with an arbitration policy that says if you’re a certain small amount apart, you just split the difference. Just a thought.
Good for the Nationals. Only 17 more players to go.
Sadly, disaster is by now the expected outcome for Gray.
Speaking of arbitration, it will be interesting to see if the whole salary cap/floor discussion spawns a qui pro quo demand from the union regarding a reduction of the 6 year service time window (for most players) to go through arbitration for 3 years to get to free agency.
Honestly, I think the owners hate arbitration even more than free agency. Its amazing that college athletics has achieved what professional sports unions could not. Unfettered and unrestricted free agency-every season. If this topples the NCAA, good riddance.
Cade Cavalli sounds like he should be riding dirt bikes over shark tanks.
The worlds’ loss, no doubt.