Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.
There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.
If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.
Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):
Angels
- Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM
Astros
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM
Blue Jays
- Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)
Braves
- Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM
Brewers
- William Contreras (4.112): Filed at $9.9MM, team filed at $8.75MM
Marlins
- Calvin Faucher (2.156): Filed at $2.05MM, team filed at $1.8MM
Mariners
- Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM
Nationals
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): Filed at $900K, team filed at $825K
Orioles
- Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM
Rays
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM
Reds
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): Filed at $6.8MM, team filed at $6.55MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): Filed at $1.75MM, team filed at $1.25MM
Royals
- Kris Bubic (5.135): Filed at $6.15MM, team filed at $5.15MM
- Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $4MM
Tigers
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): Filed at $32MM, team filed at $19MM
Twins
- Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM
Give Joe Ryan what he wants the poor guy is on the Twins and has been an anchor for us for a few years.
Yeah Twins are losing that hearing if it’s a hearing.
If they have happened to find a brain cell among them, they will sign him long term now.
For those who aren’t Twins fans and haven’t had the chance to watch this Joe, he’s the kinda guy you sign and keep. Student of the game with poise on and off the mound. Checks most of the boxes and seemingly gets better as he goes along.
They have over 500MM debt.
Man, never have I felt 19 Mill was disrespectful but dang the Tigers really weren’t going to push into even the low to mid twenties? Seems like malpractice by the front office. Or a complete lack of confidence they’ll win a World Series with him at least this year.
I struggle to see an arbitrarion increase of more than $20M over last season’s salary. I think Skubal’s agent should have asked for a mid-$20Ms number.
No, they want $25M and will use the risk of the Tigers having to pay $32M to get that ask. I don’t think either wants it to get to a hearing.
No pitcher has even made $20M in arb3. Is it really malpractice by the FO when Boras completely ignored all precedent and now has a huge uphill battle at the hearing?
It’s Skubal. That hill isn’t steep.
You have no clue how salary arbitration works
Really? Splain it to me, Lucy.
The system is actually very complex so I’ll keep it brief
There’s a reason MLBTR projected him for less than $18M when Skubal’s has been so good. The two main considerations are player comparisons and the midpoint between the figures. Just saying “but he’s really good” isn’t gonna work like you think it will since there are quite literally no comps supporting Skubal’s submitted figure. $25.5M midpoint between the figures is also so much higher than any other pitcher has gotten in arb which bodes well for the team since arbitrators tend to be more conservative with salary estimates.
Arb salary is all about what you made last year, counting stats and awards.
I do understand. And on occasion the have been outliers that have won their case in spite of how the process usually plays out.
Ultimately, the number that wins will go a long way in determining how when and where he plays this season.
If it’s the lower figure they’ll likely keep him in house the entire season as long as they’re in the playoff hunt. If it’s the higher number they might be more inclined to trade him before the season starts.
Getting good major league pitching back and avoiding paying $32m might the organizational thought. 2 starters that equal 1.5 Skubal in innings and results, plus whatever else they can get, might be a fair trade-off for them. At $19m they keep him and see how the season goes. Badly and he’s a trade deadline candidate. Excellent and he stays with the team hopefully into the playoffs. And they make him the qualifying offer and get a pick.
The gap in the numbers put forward by both parties are for a reasons that go beyond the actual process.
And all of that in comparison to what others make.
Skubal IS the “outlier”.
The new standard. He’ll win if the Tigers FAFO. Just split the difference and go win the CY again.
Disappointed the Jays and Lauerer don’t figure it out.
What the hell is Detroit thinking.
This screams:
1. Trade this off-season….or
2. Detroits season will be absolutely F’d……. Hopefully Cleveland ownership saw this article and actually does something, because Detroit is living in the bizarro world.
On the other hand….. a $19 million arb win for 2026 opens up the field of trade contenders to the delusional (Mets, Phillies, cubs, giants, Yankees, red Sox’s, astros, braves, mariners, etc)
Lol. Delusional take. Although I agree about the Mets and Yankees,
Its interesting. The largest amount ever awarded was Vlad Jr at 19.9 million. Its going to be tough for them to give him 32, eventhough he’s worth it. I suspect this gets settled around 25-7 before the hearing. But Boras as his agent definitely gives me pause.
Not the case. Soto got $31M, Ohtani $30M, and Vlad Jr$28.5.
I think stealth said awarded to mean given in arbitration. The players you mentioned came to an agreement beforehand
That’s a pretty significant discrepancy between Skubal and the Tigers. Something tells me this just MIGHT be his last season in Detroit.
The fact that they, as a contending team, even entertained the notion of trading him made that pretty clear. I’m wondering if their lowball offer is a tactic: if they win they keep him, if they lose, they trade him and have a better excuse for why they did.
It’d be an interesting scenario… Lose arb, trade him as a 1 year rental, but the team acquiring him could use the QO too.
Although there’s no guarantee that still exists next year.
Boras needs to step aside. He’s losing his touch and owners will hold out all season if a player won’t settle for a fair contract. Boras overplays his hand so much. A bunch of players lost half or even a full season because he overplays every hand he has. He’s using the Pirates as scapegoats to drive up a players value. He’s being doing this for 40 years and MLB ownership and front office will do a standoff with Boras. Unless it’s a talent like Skenes, Cole, Soto, Judge, etc etc., owners will not force their hand anymore. Boras still believed baseball can be had regardless of player. This guy needs to hang it up and sit on some beach in Maui while sipping on a Burban. Guy has earned enough on over priced players, he can retire and live comfortably. It’s time he does that and pass the torch. Good riddance
You know Boras doesn’t decide if a player takes an offer or not, right? That’s all on the player. Boras presents the offers and options to the players, gives the opinion of Boras Corp and the player decides from there. Players also face a lot of pressure from the MLBPA to set new standards, specifically players at the top of the earning spectrum and one would argue that Tarik Skubal is definitely in that spectrum, which is also the player types you mention.
What player lost a full season due to Boras contract demands? He has represented hundreds of players and only a handful have missed half a season and I can only think of a few players that even ever criticized Boras, Jordan Montgomery, Trevor Bauer, Michael Conforto & Pete Alonso (I’m not sure Alonso did, but he did switch agents).
Jason Werth, Jordan Montgomery (2024), Blake Snell (2024), JD Martinez, Juan Soto (reports he wanted to remain in Washington but Boras over played his hand), Justin Wilson, and the list goes on and on. Younger players are dropping Boras for other agents to help with extensions and negotiations. Rather you want to agree or not, Boras is losing faith with rising stars and some current stars.
Juan Soto may not be ideal consideration in this after signing that huge deal with the Mets. I brought him up in this discussion because there has been many reports of his displeasure to not be able to get an extension early on in his career because Boras bulked at that. Boras wanted to maximize his future earnings. Soto made a deal with the devil and Boras lived up to his word on this case. I have to wonder if Boras broke Soto’s spirit because Soto at one point, loved Washington. After that trade to the Yankees, makes you wonder what exactly changed him.
As for players waiting for contracts well into the season, the list is very long. Max Scherzer was drafted by the D’Backs but never signed until midway through the season he was drafted in. Giving him a much later start to his professional career. He says that he decided to play in independent ball after refusing to sign after being drafted but before signing with the D’Backs. It all seems “strange” about the logic there. He lost money by doing so, but whom is to say he was ill advised in the process.
There are plenty more war stories in regards to Boras and players relations and their contract disputes. Some players have been more open about the negatives of Boras and his contractual negotiations. Others keep a tight lip even after changing agents. Believe what you wish about Boras. He does rub people wrong and can only do “miracles” for guys like Paul Skenes, Gerrit Cole, and others. But flop on guys like Luis Garcia or any young prospect/talent looking to get an early extension. Boras has opposed this with all his clients. I don’t see why not since those players will maximize their earnings earlier and avoid the grueling pre-arb years. It gives a team a year or two of extra control, but still doesn’t ruin maximal earnings of the future. Without Boras changing with the Market, his clients are moving onto other agents due to their lack of faith in him. He is losing creditability and needs to retire. He’s made so much off of Pujols, A-Rod, Kershaw, Verlander, Cole, Soto, Strasberg, etc etc, he will be live comfortably.
Jayson Werth? Really? Jayson Werth was washed by 2018 when he made those comments, very clearly he missed no opportunities because none were out there for him. Jayson Werth also signed a contract with the Nationals that was twice the value anyone thought he’d get, with Boras as his agent.
Boras got JD Martinez 110 mil, and in his most recent free agency we don’t know why he didn’t sign, but we do know that Boras is still his agent so I find it unlikely he blames Boras.
Blake Snell defended Boras when Montgomery made his comments, then Snell signed the 5th largest pitching contract in history the next offseason, with Boras as his agent.
There is no truth to what you’re saying about Juan Soto, it was clear his entire career he planned to test the market, which seems to have worked out since he signed the largest contract in MLB history.
What are you talking about with Max Scherzer? Boras has been a career long agent for him, Scherzer missed no time due to signing late, and it was very common for a player to sign late after being drafted, especially pre slot value drafts, it slowed nothing with respect to his career.
Mark Pieper is Justin Verlanders agent and has been his agent for a long time, Scott Boras never rep’d him,
Dan Lozano has been Albert Pujols agent for almost his entire career, Scott Boras never rep’d him.
Casey Close & J.D. Smart have been Clayton Kershaw’s agents for his entire career, Scott Boras never rep’d him.
A-Rods contract with the Rangers was signed with Boras as his agent, his contract he signed with the Yankees was signed with Goldman Sachs acting as his agent, not Boras (but Boras MIGHT have gotten an agent percentage).
Very few players have left Boras, I can think of a handful, but for every player that either left Boras or criticised Boras or signed a contract that was under the public projections with Boras as his agent, I can think of 10 that got more then was expected.
Not complete BS, but mostly peaceful BS for certain. Boras doesn’t make the final decision for his clients, the client does. Boras is not a Jedi
Check again on Max Scherzer. He didn’t sign until May of his draft year. He played 2-3 months in the independent ball before signing with the D’Backs (the team that drafted him). He took a cut in pay by waiting and playing in independent ball. Check it out.
I did get Prince Fielder and Pujols mixed up on their agent. You are correct with Pujols in that regard. A-Rod contract with Texas was so bad, Texas had to throw money towards the Yankees in a clear salary dump. Even with that contract with Texas, Boras did get a portion of that payday.
Either way, you can’t deny Boras is losing faith with younger players and current stars for Boras deceivement to jack up a players market. Leading to players wanting until half way into spring training before being signed. Even that isn’t the long term contract players want. Instead larger AVG and opt out years. Some players want stability long term as Bellinger, Bregman, and Tucker seek. Something Boras himself can’t achieve because it doesn’t benefit his pocket.
Like I said already, Scherzer was drafted when there was no slot system and like a lot of players back then the negotiations stretched until the deadline. He was drafted June 6th 2006, signed May 30th 2007 and was in the majors by May 2008. Where exactly was the development delay?
You blame Boras but in fact the delay in Scherzer signing was because he experianced biceps tendinitis & arm fatigue the year prior at Mizzou and the Dbacks were looking to capitilize on that by getting a discount on his signing bonus. Scherzer decided not to sign yet and went to play independent ball to prove his arm was fine, which he proved and got his larger bonus,
Prince Fielder signed what at the time was one of the largest contracts in history and I’ve never heard of him saying a single bad word about Boras, I’m not sure how this helps your argument?
I’m not sure what your real problem is here with Boras but you clearly don’t understand how this works nor do you understand that Boras doesn’t decide if a player signs the offers he’s provided, it’s literally all on the player. Boras gets paid the same percentage on a long term deal that he gets on a short term deal, if anything your arguement is backward, he should be pushing the players to sign the longer term deal because it provide more money to Boras, but he streaches negotiations to ge the player the max he can. It also seems that every player that doesn’t get the long term deal they’re looking for gets something in the middle, high AVV with opt outs so they can take another crack at it the next offseason.
You just sound upset that he drags out negotiations, like an offseason action junkie, but of course he does that, he’s trying to get the highest amount possible for his clients.
Cade Cavelli and the Nationals. A discrepancy of $75,000. Is it really worth going in front of the judge and jury over that?
$75k isn’t a lot in the baseball world but I would definitely stand in front of a judge for my fair shake. Also, his following arb salaries will have a higher starting point, if he wins
Lol, imagine going into an arbitration hearing and having to articulate a case about why Tarik frickin’ Skubal ain’t all that. Nobody’s taking that seriously
Lauer is partly why the Jays made it to the post season, filling in very well for Mad Max posting a 9-2 record WAR 2.2 ERA 3.18. The 4.4 million posted by the Jays doesn’t look up to date. Lauer asking 5.75 but if they settle on 5 or more that would reflect the effort
Most of these filings are close to what the team offered. I can see a majority of these going towards the players.
I’ll take that bet if youre offering it. Teams have historically won 57% of arb cases.
Come on, 75K isn’t that big. Nats are losing that hearing if it goes there.
I imagine they will split difference rather than go to arb. Ill will is not worth $30k or maybe $100k counting impact on future salaries.
Diaz, you were swinging and missing and wasn’t that good. You do not deserve 4.5 million. Paredes, fine.
Think what the article fails to mention is that the players that go to an actual arbitration hearing end up with a contract that lacks a guarantee. Believe the team can cut the player by the end of spring training with a severance check and nothing more. It’s happened before.
Was surprised the Twins made a deal with larnach. Thought for sure they would go through arbitration to keep the release door open
Amazing the Reds couldn’t reach a deal with those two with that small amount between the sides. Obviously the Buffalo on those nickels haven’t defecated twice yet.
AJ Preller has been with San Diego since 2014….he still has not taken a single player to Arbitration.
This Org does not “squabble” with it’s players….has to be a big thing among players to know this.
If Skubal goes to arbitration and wins, Pirates fans better get ready to say goodbye to Skenes when he hits his 3 years of service time at the end of the year and is arbitration eligible.
No shot the Pirates would pay him a $30M salary. Also doesn’t help they tried to do service time manipulation on him in 2023 when he was awarded a full year of service time for his ROY win.