The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.
In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.
It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.
In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.
The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.
This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.
There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.
Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.
Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.
Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.
It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.
They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.
Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.
For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.
They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.
Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.
RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.
It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.
Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images
Ah yes, the age old test. Take the money and almost certainly not win anything or take less and potentially contend. Let’s see where he lands.
The question is more about the years in this case. Mets offering a high AAV 3 year deal, other teams will likely offer a 5 year deal. At this stage does Tucker prefer stability or money upfront?
It is what we are seeing this offseason with the looming lockout in 2027 due to a salary cap. A lot of players are taking short term deals with higher AAV because they are uncertain what will happen after the season. Which for Tucker I would be concerned, signing this with the Mets for 3 years… There are a lot of holes IMO on the Mets with pitching, that might be harder to address with a hard cap. It will be hard to say having, Soto, Tucker and Skubal all on the same team and then trying to build around whatever the league will consider the max after that to spend on. I mean, $120M on three players leaves a lot of finagling to do to figure out how to pay the other 37 guys.
Mets have a lot of rookies that should help contribute in the next year or two. McLean, Sproat, Tong on rookie deals, prospects Benge, Williams, AJ Ewing, Jacob
Reimer, Ryan Clifford, Will Watson. They could have a nice mix of veteran all stars and cheap rookies. Also a lot of money is coming off the books with Senga, Peterson, Holmes, Minter, Polanco, within the next year or 2
first to get a cap both sides will have to give in.I would think a cap will be either grandfathered because you can’t make teams trade players under contract or it will be like basketball with the bird rights. You can sign your own players after you reach your max.
You can include baty and alvarez, possibly vientos too. There are a lot of affordable players on their roster and w the prospects coming to balance out the bloated contracts.
It’s fun to pick on the Mets, but their owner is willing to spend. They have some solid young pitchers and will certainly sign or trade for another starter before the season starts. Getting Tucker won’t impede this.
@XX
Not really. Pete, Schwaby, and Alex signed 5 year deals after age 30. Dylan Cease, who isn’t am elite level pitcher, signed for 7 years. Other than Mike King, who’s offers I think we’re me due to health concerns and the two Japanese guys, Murakami and Okamato who I think had suitors somewhat concerned about how their abilities might transfer over, who was expected to get longer deals (5+ years) that hasn’t and settled for less? As for the Mets alleged offer, I think is just talk to appease their fanbase. Do they really think Tucker would accept a 4/$140 deal? Why, so he can hit the market 4 years older and hope to sign in a post new CBA market where their might be a more muted market conditions like a salary cap for teams? I don’t think he will get the 11/$400 this site suggested but I think someone will give him 7/$250 mil or maybe 8/$280 mil as the big dawg in this year’s class.
Hoping Polanco is done already?
@xXTheFETTXx Much more likely there is no baseball in 2027 than there is a salary cap. Players aren’t going to agree to it, and there’s no reason they should. Baseball doesn’t need on.
The Mets are fun to pick on not because they spend…but because they spend and still can’t win!
Which of the following deals would you take as Tucker:
1. Mets three years $45 million per year with an out after years one and two
2. Dodgers two years $45 million per year with an opt out after year one
3. Blue Jays or Yankees seven years $40 million per year, no trade clause and no opt outs.
4. Blue Jays or Yankees eight years $40 million per year, without a no trade clause and no opt outs.
I would take a seven or eight year deal.
You should take a look at projected WAR for 2026 for teams. Adding Tucker would put the Mets into the top 5. Not sure where “almost certainly not win anything” is coming from, unless you flat out don’t understand baseball.
Dude, it’s the Mets. Who are we kidding here? They’ll be in first place in May and 3rd place in September, at best.
bhd360:
“Dude, it’s the Mets. Who are we kidding here? They’ll be in first place in May and 3rd place in September, at best.”
This is pretty moronic. Two years ago they were in the NLCS. They also have one of the best farm systems in baseball. So do you want to revise your statement or do you want to stick with the stupidity?
This is the ballclub that canceled their fan festival because they didn’t want a horde descending on Citi Field chanting “LOLmets! LOLmets! LOLmets!”
Ah yes, the age old test. Whiny “fans” complaining about athletes getting top dollar or complaining that they didn’t take lowball deals with their favorite team
Genuinely don’t think he’s going to sign with my team, I just laugh watching guys sign places that are a mess and then do the “I came here to win” thing in the media after
bhd360:
“Genuinely don’t think he’s going to sign with my team, I just laugh watching guys sign places that are a mess and then do the “I came here to win” thing in the media after”
First, who is your team? Second people have already tried to educate you here that the Mets are still projected to have a good season. So if you want to keep spewing nonsense, I guess go ahead.
That’s a fact.
bhd360:
What team is interested in fits in the category of “take the money and almost certainly not win?”
Well, that offer certainly is within the Mets’ salary range
Obviously the take more money and not win lol. If he wanted to contend he would have signed an extension with the Astros and taken less money to play there and win.
How did the Astros do in the playoffs last year?
They didn’t lose a game.
The era of athletes caring about winning above money is over
What did the Astros win last year?
Tucker on the team probably would have added at least 1 more win and put the 87 Win Tigers out of the post.
Rocker49: The Astros aren’t that strong anymore.
Rocker49:
Except the Mets are still projected to have a good season. And Astros are nothing special in comparison, so what do you mean?
3 yrs/$120M works for me. Hopefully it does for Tucker too.
So, Tucker started the off season looking for $40 million for ten plus years, and he is settling for just three years at that AAV?
Not sure that works for Tucker.
You may have missed a zero there my friend.
$40M for 10 years = $400M
The media tossed around those early off season numbers. Not Tucker’s camp.
For him to be tempted it would prob have to be 3/140
angt222: You can fit that into your budget?
Brian, wake up … Mr. Cashman Casey Close is on the phone…he wants to talk! I repeat, Brian Cashman are you awake?
I know his wife has a lot of courage even though nicole kidman was too tall to play her.
He’s still on the phone with Boras.
Lindor
Soto
Tucker
Looks nice to me.
Too many lefties.
Lindor bats from both sides.
We love I bi king
He hits lefties well
Try that again.
My only concern is Tucker gets hurt a lot. He’s better than Pete, but at least Alonso posted in all 162. I think we’d need Tucker and another veteran bat to step in when he gets hurt, preferably a righty,
Don’t be concerned. Tucker’s not coming to Flushing.
yeah, this is where LA hops in and makes it an easy decision
Are you his mom?
“Tucker gets hurt a lot” feels like an inaccurate representation.
He had 2 hairline fractures sustained from trauma, not exactly “injury prone” like with strains and sprains just from moving like Ketel Marte.
And not too much behind them, can’t win with 3 good bats lol, they need a right handed power bat and that’s not really Vientos or Alvarez, I’d rather have Bellinger, offensively they’re similar but Bellinger is better defensively plus can play all 3 OF spots and 1b
It can def be alvarez and vientos… and polanco as well
But are they including a suite for his family?
That’s still one of the most ridiculous contract holdups I’ve heard of
@Oppo — I hope Juan had a close friend that told him as much.
“Wait, they were going to give three-quarters of a billi and you balked because of a space for your family to eat Totino’s at the stadium…?”
I mean it was dumb for both sides
Judge and soto both play right field. I think this was an important factor.
Soto doesn’t really “play” right field; he just kind of hangs out there between at-bats. His bat is good enough that he could “hang out” in LF too. It simply came down to Cohen offering more money.
and don’t forget the Mets also chipped in a monthly clothing allowance for Juan’s Mom…
If that is as long of a term they are willing to go then how can he not be a Blue Jay. He can with the lower annual salary it’s way more guaranteed money assuming they are getting close to beyond $300M.
This probably helps Cashman negotiate a contract with Boras for Bellinger.
That’s inevitable.
Don’t think Boras hasn’t considered that too.
Only way Tucker takes that deal is with an opt-out every year.
That’s a guarantee
Opt out at All-Star Break
46M a year is pretty dang good. He could hit the market again at 31 with a chance to double up and end up with a 300M 6 year contract,
Kermit that’s hilarious
Dodgers are licking their chops if this is the highest offer
Dodgers are at three years $140 million….
$25 million dollar signing bonus up front. .
$25 million salary in 2026
$40 million salary in 2027
Opt out option after 2027
$50 million in 2028 if he sticks around and opts in.
With the luxury tax, they’re going to pay him 80M in ’27 and 100M for one year in ’28 when they don’t even have a real need for him?
Are they going to pay Tucker close to 50M a year?
I think he is not getting the 10 yr deal he wanted. He needed to have a better platform season and not disappear in the playoffs.
If that dude had even the tiniest amount of competitive fire in him he would’ve gone down as an all timer and this offer wouldn’t be worthy of a post. It’s really hard to be a big fan of his because he’s just so apathetic all the time. Maybe I’m just biased and sad the Astros didn’t want to pay him.
No athlete is as competitive as fans want them to be. One of the great myths of professional sports.
No athlete is as old, fugly and out of shape as the fans.
I don’t think your generic comment does the Tucker Experience justice but you’re not wrong categorically. Tucker truly takes apathy to a rarified level however. It’s just his personality and there’s no thing inherently wrong with that. If he had that fire though 300M wouldn’t be a question and this post wouldn’t make sense. Both can be true.
People used to say Manny didn’t care either. He certainly didn’t care about that and just kept on being one of the best hitters of his generation.
I’ll take a guy’s production over his demeanor any day.
So hes giving you rendon vibes. I could see that. For me, he feels like jason heyward- 5 tool player that stat geeks loved but wilted under the pressure of being the man.
His postseason numbers support your theory as that was the only time the Astros really NEEDED him to play to his talent. I don’t expect him to just homer into the bushes like Rendon but similar vibes for sure.
No problem Mets fans. All you have to do is contend with the offers from the Jays and Dodgers.
Neither team is giving him close to 50M a year
Not the point. All things being equal he goes to Toronto or LA before Flushing.
LA for sure, but Toronto I’m not so sure. They made the WS last year and earned it, but they’re not some juggernaut or anything. Not everyone is motivated to play in another country. The Mets’ future looks promising .
Regarding the Jays: It’s not whether they are a juggernaut, it’s the potential for a longer term deal from them.
That’s not going to get it done. If it’s a short term deal than he’s a Dodger
Jays are just waiting for final offer range to become transparent and they’ll top whatever it is. Makes no sense for them to jump on it now because they would be bidding against themselves. I predicted seven years from the Jays for Tucker, but I might have to amend that to five. I still don’t think anyone’s getting him for three no matter what the money.
It’s part $$$ and part ego/ respect for Tucker & Co and I don’t think three years does it.
This might be a PR offer to calm down an already angry Mets fan base/ media knowing he’ll turn it down. The “ at least we tried” move will always buy you a little goodwill.
That was the Wilpon’s go to message
That’s HUGE money, but we all know how that goes.
How about you show up and play and you get your daily pay. Otherwise, you get nothing!
I feel like this bodes well for the Blue Jays’ chances of signing him if their main competitors are only offering 3-year deals.
I mean, would you rather have $140m (~45m AAV) over 3 years or $175m over 5 (35m AAV)
For the Blue Jays, who are at the 110% tax window means they will be paying out 94.5M (45M to Tucker and 49.5M in tax) for the first year and depending on the contract length and the payroll each year it could be the same.
$175m/5 is what Bregman got, Tucker is getting way more than that. I can see the Jays offering something like $240m/6 or $300m/8.
140 over three bc he could hit the market again at 31 and get another lucrative deal, where that’s less likely at 33.
I do not understand why Giants, Yankees and Cubs are not on this list of suitors; particularly on these terms being reported here. There is no question Blue Jays and Dodgers would match this 3 year Mets proposal cited by Sammon.
That’s a LOT of money. I’m shocked he hasn’t already signed if that’s on the table.
Phillies better jump into his if they are 3 for 150
Expect that number to go up among the suitors. Wild times
Unlikely a 3 year deal will get it done
In other words, the Mets are not in the running. A 3 year deal is a nonstarter.
The Jays are not paying 40 million plus a year for Tucker. I’ve never believed they were in the market for him. Lots of reports which is all they are. The Jays have had a great off season a lot better than past ones. Good for the Mets if they can get Tucker for that kind of deal.
$40M-$50M annually? Are we sure he’s that good? My god.
He’s not, but next year’s FA class is far worse.
True. Gotta think ahead sometimes.
All 3 teams mentioned are in the payroll range where they will be paying 110% tax on whatever they would pay Tucker…plus with a new CBA coming and who knows what further penalties…is he worth $80mm+ per year???? Teams seem a bit more hesitant on longer term deals with labor uncertainty.
To be fair, it’s the teams total payroll not just Tuckers salary that constitutes the tax penalty. Yeah he’d push them way over but it’s a shared burden.
No way on earth Tucker takes that
Bregman-esque pillow contract?
So the Mets are the stalking horse for the other clubs.
“Missed it by that much”
I think only way he takes less then 5 years js w plenty of opt outs
It sounds like Tucker may give the Bregman Sox deal a go and hope for a rebound season and monster contract thereafter.
Good luck to Belli getting 6 or 7 years if the superior FA settles for a show me contract.
Are TV deals really supporting these insane contracts? Or are a few owners happy with shelling out the cash for their own entertainment (which is fine)? There’s got to be a bubble somewhere
Dodgers gross revenue estimate for 2024 was A BILLION BUCKS. 2025’s NET revenue after revenue sharing was 855 million according to Sportico. They grossed over 350 Million in ticket sales alone in 2025.
Forbes had the Dodgers at $752 million in revenue for 2025 with a small operating profit. Seems believable to me but I’m not their accountant.
The Mets took a bath in 2025 by all estimates. A quarter-billion operating loss for the year according to Forbes. Cohen runs that team for fun and publicity despite a slight nod toward fiscal sanity this offseason, as the linked article notes.
sports.yahoo.com/articles/dodgers-became-first-mlb…
Nobody really knows the top-line and bottom-line numbers because, except for the Braves, there’s no public reporting. But a billion in revenue looks high to me even with the Dodgers’ local TV contract and perpetual sell-outs.
Anyway, nobody disputes that the Mets burn money like waste paper. Cohen can afford it.
Granted
For those that are wondering why the Yankees wouldn’t be in on this, it’s because this is essentially paying like $80mm/year for Tucker because of where they are in the LT.
Jays, Dodgers and Mets all high LT payers.
Yes, but those teams aren’t being run by Hal Steinbrenner and his shallow pocketbook.
Yes, but seemingly the Yankees care?
The Bronx Bombers are fiscally responsible compared to the ballclub on the other side of the Triborough Bridge.
Little Stevie Moneybags is really desperate for a playoff team, isn’t he.
So no shot
Let’s go Mets. Get it done.
they’re only off by about 7 years and $300mil 🤣🤣
With Tucker, the Mets instantly jump to being the 2nd best team in baseball. Soto/Lindor/Tucker is insane!
Yeah heard this earlier, interesting if they can land him with this high AAV deal. I’d say it’s definitely possible.
Dream on.
Hey I’m not a Mets fan so not dreaming of anything here, lol but it depends on if he’s got takers otherwise. I’m just saying it’s in the realm of possibility because of the highest AAV.
My point has been regardless of the Mets reported offer, the Jays and Dodgers would stand to have a better chance at signing Tucker. The Jays if they offer a longer term deal, the Dodgers if, well, they’re the Dodgers.
Well sure, but when there’s an actual offer out, which seemingly there is, it’s hard to say that there isn’t a shot or that these other teams have better chance when there’s no reports of offers from those camps.
Now that’s a sentence! lol
Both the Jays and Dodgers tend to keep their mouths shut until a deal is done.
Let’s assume Tucker’s 5 year market is $170Mn Let’s say the Mets offer $130 for 3 years. Including the present value of money (say circa $10Mn), his breakeven for 2 year comp 3 years from now is $30Mn as he enters age 32/33 year old.
Quite attractive, IMO.
#LFGM
NYM has a pretty good RF. Will Tucker change positions when he can get the same $$$ elsewhere? I think not.
In the unlikely event that the Mets land Tucker Soto moves to LF. Not Tucker.
Mets are in talks, but I don’t think the Blue Jays and Dodgers are stopping.
So they basically are saying you can go play for dodgers or jays
Why would he go to the Mets and not LAD for the same terms? 🤔
At least he will wn a title in LA.
Strike looming, i would take the long term deal while its there
Exactly, a $150M deal could end up as only $100M guaranteed
Would be a lockout, not a strike.
If they want to tempt Tucker on a short te deal, my guess is they gotta get to 3 yrs $150 mil
Well yeah Tucker should just take 3 year deal with opt outs and 35-40 AAV.
Take their money dude.
He’s looking for 7-10 years. So offer 3.
This guy is 28, why would you not be willing to go to 5 years?
AAV
He can still get a 7 year deal after this contract
Weekly opt outs!
Next year has to be a consideration. Unknown changes for free agents is a possibility. If he is risk averse, he will want to take the longest deal possible.