Here are three things around the baseball world to keep an eye on headed into the weekend:
1. Will Skubal go to a hearing?
The Tigers and reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal made waves yesterday when they failed to reach an agreement to avoid arbitration prior to the filing deadline. The sides filed at a record-breaking $13MM apart, with the Tigers putting forward a $19MM filing figure while Skubal’s camp countered at $32MM. If the sides end up going to a trial, it would be one of the most impactful decisions ever made at the league’s arbitration hearings. The current record for a pitcher’s salary in arbitration is held by David Price and sits at just $19.75MM. A victory in this case for Skubal would utterly shatter that record, and it’s not hard to see why he might deserve that sort of price tag given his incredible back-to-back Cy Young award winning seasons the past two years. Of course, arbitration hearings don’t begin until the end of the month. That means it’s entirely possible the sides could reach an agreement to avoid arbitration before the hearing, although the “file-and-trial” approach most teams have taken to arbitration in recent years suggests that could be unlikely.
2. What’s next for Bellinger, Yankees?
A reunion between Cody Bellinger and the Yankees has long appeared to be the most likely outcome for the two sides this offseason. That might still be the case, but the two camps appear to be at an impasse for the time being. Reporting has indicated that New York put forward an offer to Bellinger with an average annual value in excess of $30MM, but that the sides remain apart in terms of contract length. That’s an extremely hefty annual salary, and beats the $28MM AAV (on a five year deal guaranteeing $140MM) MLBTR predicted for Bellinger at the outset of the offseason by a healthy margin. With that being said, the length of that contract offer is not yet known and could significant alter the overall value of that contract. A four-year deal with an AAV in the range of even $32MM would fall short of the total guarantee MLBTR projected, after all.
In any case, Bellinger seems to be prioritizing length with his next contract after signing short-term deals in his last two forays through free agency. The outfielder is reportedly seeking a seven-year contract, and that’s seemingly led both sides to evaluate other options. The Cubs are a surprising recent entrant into the Bellinger sweepstakes, while the Yankees could realistically pivot to another big bat on the market like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. Will the sides split up over this gap in negotiations, or will they find a way to bridge it in the coming days and weeks?
3. Red Sox to host Fenway Fest:
January marks the start of Fan Fest season around the league, where teams hold fan conventions and celebrations in advance of the coming season. The first team to do so this year is the Red Sox, who will host their annual Fenway Fest tomorrow. The event runs from 9am to 6pm local time at Fenway Park, and tickets include access to autograph and photo sessions with players and alumni, a handful of panel discussions, and giveaways. Players and alumni in attendance will include Pedro Martinez, Wade Boggs, Carlton Fisk, Roman Anthony, Aroldis Chapman, Marcelo Mayer, and Ceddanne Rafaela. A full list of players, alumni, and coaches in attendance can be found here alongside further details about the day’s festivities.
Fenway Fest, hot stove news
If Boggs doesn’t wear a shirt or Jersey with R I P on it, someone isn’t doing their job.
Long – I disagree. It’s is there arent at least 107 cans of beer waiting for Boggs at the event, somebody isnt doing their job
Mac – No Abreu or Duran, the two guys most often linked to trade rumors.
BTW – They are giving away regular season game tickets with every paid admission to FSG Fest. Gotta pump the attendance numbers.
Abreu is in Venezuela, probably a bit harder to travel at the moment.
Pen – Could be, but Narvaez also lives there and he’s scheduled to appear at the FSG Fest.
Each player’s situation is different though, so who knows ….
Horrible set up for the fan fest. This is set up by people who have no idea what fans want
Autographs, Pics, Free Tickets.
What do fans want thats not included? I’d say price is high for an event that used have free entry, but you didnt get free stuff back then.
white – And they keep shortening it, from 3 days to 2 days to 9 hours. It was much better at Foxwoods.
….,…….and the 2027 work stoppage looms.
This Bellinger situation is turning into non-sense. If Boras wants the 7 years then go to the Dodgers, Blue Jays or Mutts then. Smh
I don’t expect the Blue Jays or Dodgers will be interested in Bellinger at 7 years either. 4 or 5? Sure.
Lookout Boras and Bellinger. The Yankees are pivoting to Bo Bichette.
Scotty oos overplaying his hand again, or if Bellinger ia calling the shots, then he didn’t learn anyrhing from the last time his protracted free agency cost himself.
“Momma always says, “Stupid is……”
The Yankees must be tired of bidding against themselves, and Bo Bichette ( to replace Volpe at shortstop, moving Anthony over to second base ) is a more productive and possibly a less expensive move.
and it absolutely weakens the reigning AL champion Jays.
Heyman is reporting the Yankees are pivoting to Bichette.
Dodgers and Mets made it clear they are not entertaining 5-7+ yr deals especially for Bellinger who has significant home vs road splits especially if ballpark does not suit his lefty swing. I see Bellinger ultimately caving in unless he agrees to a 3yr high avv deal that pays him $35-37 million
Nonsense is one word. And why you calling your wife a Mutt
Will Bob Burda be there? No? Not interested.
“The Tigers are reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal…”
Fascinating.
Are the Tigers trying to get a “decent” salary attached to him for 2026 so they can trade him easier?
I think this is all about setting precedent for the future. The most a pitcher ever made through arb is David Price ($19.75M) as the article indicates and player: Juan Soto at $31M. He filed for 32M. No coincidence.
DET is just using history knowing that he’ll break Price’s sum, but shouldn’t break Soto’s — though there’s an interesting case that can be made. DET can make a good claim and save a couple of million.
A lot of pressure on both sides to set precedent. Given the time elapsed between Price and today, I’m shocked at Detroit’s offer. While they may have a lot of stats supporting their number, Price did not win back to back Cy’s and it now seems like the players association will force the arbitrator to decide. I just don’t see how he gets less than Price so many years forward if there is not a compromise. Someone please tell me what I’m missing.
Run – It’s Boras wanting to brag about his client setting another new record.
Could come back to bite him though, if Skubal sought $25M he’d have a much better chance of winning.
FPG — I have it the other way; the previous record was 19 million in the last year of ARB…for David Price.
The Tigers made an identical offer as a decade ago president. Woops.
If they had offered say 21 million, I think they’d have a better chance at winning. As it stands, I think Skubal wins.
To me, the Tigers number is more vexing than Skubal’s.
a decade ago president is Obama. You’re looking for ‘precedent’.
Sea — The first letter of a sentence is supposed to be capitalized.
(In an era of smart phones and auto correct, editors/teachers need to take a breath. If it didn’t obstruct your comprehension, your just being a Karen).
O’s – I was just going by Soto’s record for anyone who has gone to arbitration.
As for which number is closer, it does seem like most of the experts projected closer to the Tigers offer.
O’s, I believe Price was a super two player. Meaning his record setting arb salary was his 4th time through the system. Skubal having only three arb years to match or beat his price was a tall ask. Even with his outstanding performance
FPG — Yes, most thought the number would be closer to Tigers number, and I do too.
Just saying, that since the Arbitrator chooses either A or B, and not a number in-between, choosing an identical number as a decade ago seems too stingy.
The last year of ARB is supposed to be equal to fair market value, and it’s hard to see how Skubal as a free agent would get less than 25mill per year. I dunno.
Oh yeah — Super two does make a difference, but only in the 3 previous years ARB cases though. The last year of ARB is supposed to be equal to free market value. A decade ago a TOR SP like Price would get a deal for 20 mill, but in today’s market place, that number is closer to double that.
That’s as I understand how a players last year of ARB works, getting full market value.
I was actually trying to be helpful, while you’re just being a dick.
Sea — That’s exactly what a Karen would say.~
Maybe you’re new to the Internet, but correcting folks spelling/grammer is seldom received as ‘helpful’.
I would suggest you consider how such comments would be received by you. Would you call the person a dirty word, or try to see the value in their comment, or block them so your anger slams the door on the way out and you don’t have to hear the laughing…
Skubal will lose his arbitration case of $32 million as he was stupid to go so high. If he went say $23-25 million he had a much better chance and both team would have settled in between to around $21-22 million breaking Price’s record.
Price also made a $14MM salary compared to Skubal’s $10Mm last year.
Soto made $23MM before making $31MM in his final year.
You’re calling me a Karen like that’s not derogatory? I was offering a little help to somebody who’s autocorrect failed them.
Should a person have to go through life looking like a dork saying ‘should of’ their whole life, or don’t you think maybe somebody oughta let em know it’s should’ve? Autocorrect will not help. I should’ve included the 🙂 that I thought about including.
Calling people Karen. Should be BANNED
Soto had MVP votes in 4 out of 6 seasons before reaching his final arbitration season, mind you 1 out of the 2 he won rc of the year. Ohtani pitched and hit at elite levels before reaching his final arbitration season. He does not deserve to break the 30 mill.
Price had thrown 4 / 6 season 200 plus innings, 3 cy young voting plus 1 mvp voting seasons. With all due respect Skubal has been pitching elite for the past 2 and a half seasons without throwing a single season of 200 innings but 2 just over 190 which were his last 2 seasons. Granted he did win cy young for both of them so breaking the 19 set by price wouldn’t be outrageous cause it was 10 years ago but trying to break the 30 is a little bit out of reach.
Metz, the game has changed but the salaries keep increasing. I hate to say it but given the choices, Skubal deserves his number.
Jme:
Your point centers mainly on 200 innings pitched. Pitchers are pitching less and less every year. Factoring that in, 190 innings is the new 200.
Jmetz — We still using IP to make comparisons from different era’s? Feels more and more like Apples and Oranges.
Redsox and dewey:
You’re definitely right, it’s completely different ballgame. I mention innings because it all leads back to it regardless whether it be SO, wins, etc but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that Price had more successful years in the first 6 with more value yearly. Not even Degrom was set to make that much, pitching way more dominant for more years than Skubal. Mind you Degrom holds the record for largest raise in arbitration which was around 9 mill. And Skubal wants a 20 million raise lol come on man prove me wrong with stats not just feelings
“SO, wins, etc”
Wins? If youre not pitching as many innings, youre getting less SOs and Wins. How about averages like ERA+, FIP, Whip? Then, Skubal wins the stat war hands down.
Personally, I wouldnt use either. Comparing two players from different eras strictly using stats doesnt work. More likely, where the player ranks among his peers is what the arbitration board will use.
O’s :
If i would’ve used SO, etc you would argue he has more innings but let’s use 2 recent pitchers and recent stats of WAR i guess , highest recorded arbitration raise was Degrom at 9.6 million while having already pitched 2 amazing seasons with a WAR of 5.3 and 9.4, 3 great seasons with a WAR of 3.1, 3.4, 4.2. Skubal wants a 22 million raise for just pitching 2 amazing seasons with a WAR of 6.4, 6.5 and 3 other seasons of WAR of 2, 1.8, 1.4. lol you can use old stats or new ones. They all still don’t add up to him getting 22 million raise in arbitration. As a free agent he can definitely get that raise but arbitration.. i just don’t see it happening but good for him if he gets it.
It’s nice to see some generally intelligent comments here about the Skubal situation. Last night was a different story.
Redsox, while the stats you mention are popular amongst fans, media and possibly front offices they don’t mean squat to the arbitration process
ohyea: Did you read my full comment?
—–
Let me repost my 2nd paragraph:
“Personally, I wouldnt use either. Comparing two players from different eras strictly using stats doesnt work. More likely, where the player ranks among his peers is what the arbitration board will use.”
—–
It’s either or – in arb the award cannot be “somewhere in between.”
Skubal’s trying to get his value locked down, too. $32M for a two-time reigning Cy winner probably still provides the same in excess value to the team; and perhaps more so with the way he put an otherwise extremely average team on his back to even make the playoffs.
No. Pitchers who miss a season get completely screwed in the arbitration process. It’s ridiculous and players union does nothing about it. Skubal is thou ! Detroit is offering a typical increased salary based on his performance minus the time he lost during tj recovery. Skubal wants Soto money and he deserves it ! Pay the man
It is interesting that the Tigers’ number was less than the record. They should have at least come in at $20M to give him the record. At Arb hearings they have to pick between the numbers submitted right? $32M is a little silly when the record is $19.75M.
Nevermind it was the record for a pitcher. Ohtani and Soto each made $30M+.
I also thought it strange that they didn’t just offer the round number of $20 million.
Odd that the Yankees are going short term for Bellinger. Their usual MO is long term to lower the AAV.
Maybe they wised up
Obviously a big difference between 4/$130M or 7/$225M, say, especially when the bidding on Tucker does not seem to be going terribly well.
Bellinger has barely started being productive again and there’s probably no way he carries that into his middle-to-late 30’s. A 4 year deal at most would be the smartest decision for any team that signs him
By the 4h year his legs will cauae him a move to 1B, and who needs a fiest baseman whose declining bat speed ans hard hit rate produce little power.
Bellinger needs to go for more in a shorter term than more than 4 years, tops 5.
Rsox it’s hard to figure with Bellinger. He has an old school approach but everyone is trying to gauge it by new metrics.
The arb system evolved to now based on
not giving players what they deserve,
Not giving them market value or even a % thereof
Not giving them what comparable players at theat arb year have received
But instead giving them raises.
Tigers offered a 90% RAISE. Boras asks for a 220% RAISE. The proper question to ask is ‘what % raises have other star arb 3 players received’?
Joe, you are correct in your logic but who says the arbitrator will look at percentages? There has never been a two time Cy Young winner going to arbitration and the only decision if there is no compromise, is to choose between the two. Given Skubal clearly outclasses Price and considering the time value of money, it seems clear to me that Skubsl deserves more than what Price got.
Percentages are meaningless. What matters is the next salary. – Mathematician
Salary is meaningless. What matters is the next percentage. -Dental Assistant
The problem with that equation is pitchers don’t get raises when they are hurt. Skubal missed a good season and Detroit is basing their offer with no pay raise over that time frame. Skubal should definitely get Soto money and he should not be penalized for being hurt
Not sure raise percentages are relevant in a sport and position in which a 15-year career duration is an outlier. The player’s (and agent’s) job is to extract as much $$$ as possible for each year of that career; the team’s job is to extract as much value as possible from that player. There are no guarantees, until the sides sign a guaranteed contract.
It’s not a direct comp, but John Means looked like he was on track to become a recurring all-star, and possibly a future Cy candidate in 2019. Six years later he’s kicking around for a spring training invite.
Bellinger better do something. I just don’t see a bunch of teams clamoring for his services. If that 7 year contract he supposedly wants is for real he needs to come back down to earth.
Seven year deal for Bellinger smells like COL or LAA territory.
Winning vs. Wealth.
I’m sure teams like the LAD understand that players will take a cut in money for a better chance at winning a ring. The ‘concentration of talent’ discount.
That’s possible. I just can’t see a seven year contract for this guy. Way too inconsistent year to year. He’s starting to get a little older and soon the down years are gonna be more and more and I think everybody knows that.
And I can’t see any other team stepping up with a better offer. Have you seen his numbers away from home? They’re awful in comparison to home games. Teams know this.
I like bellinger but I would not sign him. He’s asking for way to much for a player who can get get real cold.
In contract year:
Castellanos > bellinger
Castellanos got 4/100 mil and everyone is bichin bout that contract now. Bellinger could be rendered useless and still be owed 60 mill if buyer give him his asking price
Boston: we’ve done the bare minimum to not get yelled at at fanfest this year. Please be nice to us.
It would have been a lot more helpful for the front office if they had gotten either Bregman or Bichette or whoever signed before this thing happens. It seems likely that they will make one more move like that (at least), but until they do, I’m sure fans might be a little grumpy, even if Boston has actually done some interesting things this offseason.
Tang:
Response:
No you haven’t. We’re fed up with you taking a lot of Red Sox profits to invest elsewhere.
David Price set the MLB record for arbitration. He signed a one-year deal for $19.75 million with the Detroit Tigers in 2015.
A record arbitration set in 2015. It’s now 2026 and a new record will be set. David Price wasn’t coming off back to back CY Young awards. He did have a CY Young award in 2012.
The Tigers didn’t even offer a number larger than Price’s 2015 arbitration number.
The Tigers will lose.
Skubal and his agent will win.
Tigers got a lot of baseball history! Not sure if they have any tigers thou
Skubal and Bellinger both wind up on the Red Sox?
Interesting.
Wait, am I supposed to read the article?
Tigers should lose this one. Also, why don’t any of these articles that mention ‘Highest ever’ contracts and such ever adjust for inflation? Price’s 2015 deal would translate to around $25/26 million in 2026 dollars. That makes the ask on Skubal’s side much more reasonable.
Mid-winter fan events are now a thing in baseball — Fenway Fest, Cubs Convention, etc. There was going to be an Amazin’ Day later this month but now we learn (via Long Island daily paper Newsday) that event was canceled. Who else but LOLmets.
Offer the cash to Bichette. Bellinger not worth any long term investment.
His contract will most likely be most team friendly out of all top FA when said and done imo
Detroit really should have filed at a slightly higher number, like maybe $22 million, because if it goes to a hearing, Skubal is probably going to win since the arbiters have to choose between the 2 numbers submitted by the involved parties and cannot just make up their own figure somewhere in the middle, and $19 million is clearly ridiculous based on his performance and the existing record, which was set many years ago now by an objectively inferior pitcher.
Both the Tigers and Boras have very knowledgeable people working for them who come up with these numbers.
They know more about how this works than you or I.
The Tigers don’t have to come up with number that makes sense, or is fair. They need to come up with the lowest possible number that they think gives them a 51% chance of winning
I get the strategy, I just think Detroit miscalculated badly.
We’ll have to wait and see how it turns out, but it will be very historic if it goes to a full hearing, regardless of the outcome.
Don’t forget, it may be a prelude to an eventual blockbuster trade…
The compensation for a year of skubal at 19m is better than 26m, and should be much better than 32m.
So while I’m nervous that the whole Bregman thing is a smoke screen… I’ll really be worried if nothing is announced this weekend!!! Please tell me they’re saving it for Fanfest….
Maybe Brasier will show up to hand Boggs beers given I think he’s currently a FA…
Gasox.. just saw the line up for fan fest… if I could be there my first person to meet would be Bob Stanley.. THEE original Brasier only better for longer!!!LOL.. and yes you are correct on RB!!!
Imagine trying to nickel and dime a back to back Cy Young winner and generational talent. Embarrassing by Detroit.
Just 260 million nickels below his asking price.
Skubal is going to get traded eventually or walk away from Detroit anyway, so attempting to cripple their financial flexibility for continuing to spend on free agents or make deals and take on more payroll to give the tigers a chance to win seems counter-productive to do to your team that you currently play for.
It goes to show everyone that everything is always about money. Say Skumbg or Skubal , whichever name works for you, gets his 30 plus million in arbitration, all that does is line Skumbag’s pockets with a little more money while giving Uncle Sam, his manager and agents more money. That’s it.
Oh and it also shows you what kind of a player Skumbag is. He’s an I in teammate kinda guy.
Hope you get your money Fareak Skumbag. Hope you get it and your team takes two steps back from being able to compete and possibly advance in the playoffs.
Selfish players are the cancer of the MLB. But just like selfish players, selfish owners could be even worse.
So I see that side of the coin as well, I am just saying, if I am Fareak Skumbag and I am offered 20 million dollars to play for one year and that means my team can have the other 10 million to continue to bolster my squad, then I know what I’m doing.
I want to win.
If all things were equal and fair in love and war, Fareak Skumbag should be the guy that gets paid every dollar he is worth but ends up pitching on a team or teams that never reach the post season or if they do, they’re out in the first series every time. Because asking for over 30 million dollars for one season in arbitration is the type of thing a guy does that is a selfish Fareak Skumbag.
And a year from now, barring a lockout, the Dodgers or Mets will be paying Skubal $40 million annually.
The Tigers missed their chance to trade him for a haul — what the Marlins did when they traded Cabrera. Instead, like Angels with Ohtani, they’ll watch him walk away and receive at best a 2nd round draft pick. Virtually nothing.
Rays,
Every player wants Skubal to win his arbitration case. Every player would like Skubal on their team, but they understand they have a small window to earn as much as they can, and are rooting for him to get what he’s worth, regardless of what team it’s with.
Fans complain because they are (fan)atics. Money is part of the game. And business is business. For instance, many fans say the Dodgers are ruining baseball by spending so much. Have you ever heard an active player complaining about the Dodgers spending too much? No, because it’s a fan issue more than a player issue.
The Tigers don’t need Skubal to give up $10m to bolster their team. They can reduce their profit by $10m and do it.
Every. Single. Person. Alive. Knows that Skubal won’t get resigned by the Tigers. Why should he give them $10m?
My understanding of how this works regarding Skubal is the arbitrators cannot pick an in between salary. They have to decide if he is worth the midway value between the 2 offers, which is $25,5 million. If they think he is then they have to rule in Skubal’s $32 million favor. If less, then he has to take Detroit’s.
Is Skubal worth more then $25.5 million? If he were a FA now, he most certainly would be. I think that’s why the Tigers offered only $19. They know the Arbitrators were going to think he’s worth >$25. Why offer more and just raise the mid-point price?
My guess is he wins the $32 million. That will doom the Tigers signing Bregman or any other 8 figure deal this off season. It almost will make a long term deal with the Tigers even more difficult.
If the Tigers are not right in the middle of the pennant race in July, he gets traded. I see almost no chance the Tigers sign him long term.
No way he gets 32 million. 19 and if the tigers are smart they would get something done with him before the hearing.
Isn’t the Qualifying Offer about 22 million?!
So if they offer 19 this year, they won’t QO him next year??
They should have offered something closer to the QO number, and not the same as a decade ago value.
Obviously prices have changed in the last decade, so for the Tigers to try and argue otherwise seems… difficult…
I’m guessing, but I’m looking at this like it’s business. Just business.
1. Boras has made it very clear that Skubal is going to free agency.
2. Any offer the Tigers make will simply be the floor. He won’t sign an extension. Period.
3. Boras told the Tigers he wants $32 million this year. Period.
4. That’s more than Soto’s record arb win and Soto plays 5 times more games than Skubal. No way an arb pitcher gets more than that. Boras knows it too.
5. Tigers offered more than the previous record that David Price got. Maybe $20-$22 million. Just guessing.
6. Boras stands pat.
7. No need for Tigers to up it. All it does is increase the mid-point cost, so they go low and make the O/U at $25.5 million. The arbitrators may struggle with that, so they could stick with the Tiger’s offer. But if not, so what? The Tigers have Skubal for this one year and he has to pitch for his free agency big bucks.
8. Either way, Skubal will have to be going 100% regardless of his contract.
9. It’s 99% assured Skubal will not be in Detroit in ’27.
10. The Tigers may run that $22 million by him going into the hearing. My guess Boras will roll the dice.
11. All it means is that Skubal will do his best in Detroit this year and Boras has set the floor.
Why pay Skubal the $32 million if he’s leaving anyway? Let the other guys pay him. Make the arbitrators pay him. The Tigers don’t have to say anything at the hearing except say they love Skubal. They know, long term he’s worth more. They tried to extend. He isn’t interested. So we are going low ball and he is going high ball. Both prices are way off. We’ll let you decide.
Warn —
1. Standard Boras practice.
2. Yeap.
3. That’s the number they submitted, yes.
4. Maybe. But since a pitcher hasn’t shattered the record in over a decade…seems like it’s due for a reset…just like Soto did for position players.
5. No. The article above says they offered Less than the previous high of 19.75mill (offered 19 mil).
6. Of course.
7. There is no mid-point in arbitration. Arbitrators choose either the Players or Clubs dollar figure. ((& In what world has he Not pitched for top dollars already??))
8. …lost me.
9. Sure. What’s that got to do with his ’26 salary?
10. It was 19 million, below previous record of a decade ago. No guess needed, it would have been rejected by every Agent.
11. All players do their best. Best-er during contract years for Generational wealth.
Business it is. A lot of money at stake, and people tend to want the most they can get, or spend the least they can. Classic opposing motivations.
Skubal will be great. I wish the Tigers would sign him since they used to play with the big money. Detroit is not a small or mid-tier market, shouldn’t be a problem giving him whatever he wants.
The sports market is like the fine art market; there’s only one Skubal/Mona Lisa. If you want one, you pay the asking price plus a little more. Or you don’t have a Skubal/Mona Lisa. It is what it is.
My reference to #5 was that (I’m guessing) offered more than what they submitted to arbitration. Boras said $32 million. Tigers offered $22 million. When Boras said let’s go to arbitration, the Tigers dropped their offer to $19 million. The mid-point of the two offers is important. The rules state that if the arbs think Skubal is worth more than the mid-point they have to go with his bid. If they think he’s worth less than $25.5 then they have to go with the Tiger’s $19 million offer.
I think the real arb value is between $22-25.5 million. I speculate that the Tigers offered a below market value just to keep that middle value closer to the real arb value of $22 million-ish.. I’ll be very surprised if they think Skubal is worth more than Soto was in arb.
Arbitration is not like free agency. Just because if Skubal would probably get at least $32 million this year in free agency doesn’t mean he should get it in arb.
To me, the Tigers are in win:win. They know he’s not going to be a Tiger in ’27. Whatever contract he pitches under this year, they know he can’t mail it in. He can’t hurt his REAL payday coming next year. I’m a Tiger fan. I’m OK with him leaving in FA. I’d love for the Tigers to extend him, but Boras isn’t going to allow that. He just won’t sign now. So let him sing for his supper as a Tiger one more year.
There will only be one Mona Lisa….ever. Can’t be duplicated. There will be other Skubals down the line.
To be sure it is an auction market. In 10 years the Mona Lisa will be worth even more. Skubal won’t.
The arbitrator is going to decide if he is worth more than what the Tigers offered. If he wins the battle, he will get the 32 million. This is the part of the game that is decided by the Bore-asses of the world. The ones that ruin it.
But that’s all because the owners want to keep all of the money for themselves.
I am the type of fan that thinks you should get what you’re worth and I realize that the numbers are ridiculous and it might as well be Monopoly money, but these salaries keep going up and up and up, it’s messing with the economy, ticket prices, concessions and the mlb experience as a fan.
These agents cripple a team’s flexibility to spend evenly throughout their roster to put the best team on the field.
That is why I am an incentive based salary supporter. If you’re worth it, damn right you get paid, and if you’re not, you get a nice base salary, but if you have a down year, it’s motivation to work harder to achieve what you know you’re worth.
Too often than not these players sign huge deals and then screw off or don’t play well for whatever reason and then their team is on the line and has to eat a huge contract and can’t compete with other teams.
The arbitrators are not suppose to decide if Skubal is worth more than the $19 million Tiger offer. Everyone in baseball knows he is. They are suppose to weigh his value against the mid-point value of the 2 offers. That’s $25.5 million. If they think he is then he gets $32 million. If not, then he gets $19 million even if they think he’s worth $23 million.
I don’t think Boras cares. He knows Skubal’s fair arbitration number is closer to Detroit’s than his. He’s telling Tarek, no big deal. I’m setting a very high standard for the real payday that’s coming in 2027. The Tigers know they have 0 chance to sign him. Any offer they make becomes the floor Boras takes to other teams. There’s lots deeper pockets out there than Illich’s. It doesn’t matter what Detroit offers. It won’t be enough.
My understanding of the ARB process is 1/3rd, 2/3rds, full value of market rates.
As for the middle number being part of the Arbitrators decision process, that’s the first I’m hearing of that. That’s something else that’s different in our understanding of the process/rules of ARB. Dunno.
I got it from the Detroit Free Press article today. Evan Petzold wrote it.
Duran not scheduled for Fenway Fanfest. 25 other active players are.
Jazz and Bellinger are great regular season pull happy lefties. Great YSIII fits to help leverage a winning season, but neither contributes much on the road nor in the playoffs.
Essentially, the Yankees inflated each players value with savvy batted profile matching.
Remember, just about any FB heavy lefty can pull a Curtis Granderson or Trent Grisham and sell out for power with 314 down the line and an equally friendly RCF power alley.
I know it’s business but I think the lowball offer to Tarik could not only aggravate him but alienate him to their front office. Pay now or pay later. They are better off making him happy so that they can potentially sign him to a long term deal during the season or after the season. It maybe that this is setting up for a trade situation everyone. We know that they could receive a king’s ransom for him. I’d love to hear what you guys think about this.
The way I see it Tigers are hoping to eventually settle in the 21-23 million range as that would still be a low salary for an ace that most definitely will appeal to many teams trading for him before the deadline. The haul will be insane and imo Dodgers will easily offer the best pkg plus extension that makes sure he remains with them
Agree. The Tigers will offer something in the $22-25 range as they walk into the arb meeting. Skubal should take it. I think Skubal is asking for too much stress he pulls down that $32 million win. He will really have to pitch his butt off. The Tigers are going to get his very, very best again this year. He could win a 3rd consecutive CY Award. He will be unsignable to the Tigers.
I don’t care how much he makes. I just want the Tigers to win this year.
Scott Boras wants seven years for Bellinger. But the refusal of the clubs to go along isn’t collusion, it’s common sense. There is too much up and down variation in his career for a team to be comfortable committing to seven years or even five.
Boras has to read the market. If he holds out too long for his client, Belli could find himself having to go to plan B or C.
Look at Realmuto who misjudged the market. The years and dollars the Phillies allocated for him are about to go to Bichette instead.
They only offered 19 million? That 19.75 from Price was a while ago. Skubal. has been just as good or better than Price was at that point. Tigers are trying to cheap out.