Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Astros still looking for outfield help:
The Astros have been looking for left-handed outfield help throughout the offseason in an effort to balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. One might think that the team’s recent acquisition of Joey Loperfido helped to solve that issue, but it was more of a net-neutral move given that Loperfido was brought in as the return for lefty-swinging outfielder Jesus Sanchez. Yesterday’s report that Houston has some interest in veteran outfielder Michael Conforto suggests they’re still open to a lower end move in free agency, and a trade of Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker could still theoretically yield the left-handed hitter the team has sought. Other lefties still available in free agency include Jesse Winker and Alex Verdugo.
2. Will the Rays be able to extend another young star?
The Rays have long been known to get aggressive with extensions for their players, dating back to early-career deals for Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. In more recent years, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Pete Fairbanks, and Tyler Glasnow are among the players they’ve extended prior to or early in arbitration, even if many of those players were ultimately traded before those extensions ran their course.
Budding superstar Junior Caminero has voiced an openness to an extension this week. The question is whether or not the Rays have interest in putting together the sort of offer it would take to lock up a 22-year-old who just hit 45 homers in his first full MLB season. It would surely require the Rays leaving their typical comfort zone, though Tampa Bay did give Wander Franco a $182MM deal before his career came to an abrupt halt over off-the-field improprieties and legal issues. That was under Stu Sternberg’s ownership, and it’s unclear what appetite the team’s new ownership group would have for a big-time extension of that sort.
3. Will the Twins add to their rotation?
Yesterday’s news that Twins ace Pablo López suffered a UCL tear that will likely end his season was a gut punch for a Minnesota club that opted not to follow up on last summer’s deadline sell-off and instead make some modest additions to the roster. The rotation, led by López and Joe Ryan, had the makings of a solid group. Bailey Ober is looking to bounce back from a hip injury, while Simeon Woods Richardson pitched well down the stretch. Young arms like Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp give the Twins plenty of options to round out the staff.
However, the Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez, with new executive chair Tom Pohlad publicly confirming the team’s interest. That was before López suffered his elbow injury. There’s no one akin to Valdez left in free agency, but the Twins clearly have at least some room for additional spending, and free agency offers names like Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell.
Me too! I carry a career ~.001 WRc+, but I have a great clubhouse presence! (I’d be willing to loose half my league minimum in all club-house/plane flight/hotel poker games😊)
I’ll just let you be an entertainment director for the Astros that plays poker with our players.
Make sure you bring some beer into the clubhouse for your teammates lol
A lot of people who post comments on here think that clubhouse presence is more important than actual production anyway. So you’ll do fine.
Hammerin’Hank what did you think of my comment yesterday about karma would you agree with that response or not let me know
Get that glove ready.
Come on Astros and Twins.
Astros get Larnach and Bart
Twins get Harrington and Arraghetti
Pirates get Paredes
That trade makes zero sense for the Astros. Great trade for the other teams, but still, no way the Astros make that deal.
Can you explain why?
Paredes has way more value than Larnach and Bart, and that’s not even counting giving up Arraghetti. You don’t give up a all star 3rd basemen (122 ops+ past 3 years), a starter with multiple years of control for a average outfielder and a back up catcher.
Paredes is better than either one of them in isolation. Put together, they fill two needs the Astros have–an unsexy move, yes, but not a bad baseball move.
The Astros likely will not work out a one for one trade because of the three criteria they’ve been seeking (which is why them missing out on Duran is frustrating because he didn’t check the salary box in the Astros search).
I didn’t know how valuable Arrighetti seems to be to the Astros. He probably is too much to throw in to a trade like this.
It does solve two needs, but because the return is light, I’d reckon the Astros want a prospect to fill in Paredes. You don’t throw something in a “fair” trade or a trade that you have sent more value then your getting back. Also, don’t trust BTV’s trade value for Arrighetti. I think it’s like 4 and it sucks.
If the Astros would take prospects, there is no reason on God’s green earth for the Pirates to not be engaged and the most aggressive suitor then. We have ample prospects to make a good offer and while Paredes doesn’t fit PNC Park as exactly as Pirates fans want, he is a mammoth upgrade to what our current starting lineup is on the left-side of the infield.
And in anticipation of AI GM getting in and saying that Paredes and Triolo have the same bWAR, I’ll say that defense (which bWAR weights more heavily than fWAR) did not get the Pirates very far last year. We need bats.
They won’t take a package made of 100% prospects, but to fill value, they’ll take prospects.
You come on.
Larnach and Bart is not worth Paredes much less Paredes and Arrighetti. Also you spelled Spencer’s name wrong, How dare you!
I keep seeing Astros fans talk about Spencer Spaghetti as a throw in. Maybe he’s more valuable than people are discussing him as? I see he’s an injury risk so that has to be factored in as well. I don’t know. I don’t know that Astros system and frankly based on how you guys talk about Paredes being the most valuable third basemen in the league yet he’s currently scheduled to be on your bench is super confusing. Is he a starter or is he not? Is he worth Larnach or is he more worth Dalton Varsho.
If the Twins would do it for just Larnach and getting Harrington, I’d absolutely do that. But as I’ve said for weeks since they’ve said they’re shopping Paredes, the three criteria the Astros FO are looking for:
–equally valuable player whether WAR, OPS+, or wRC+ wise as Paredes
–left handed outfielder
–that is cheaper than Paredes contract
These criteria will lead you to have Paredes sit the bench for the next two years and wait for injury. That might be a smart strategy but you will likely end up with Conforto which honestly isn’t a bad outcome.
He is way more than people are talking about him. He’s supposed to be a starter, but Jim Crane made a Correa trade.
He very well could be. I’ve not heard Arrighetti talked about so he could be super valuable. I see him listed as your 6th starter as a temporary 6 man rotation, so that doesn’t scream someone who the team desperately wants to protect but you guys know much more than I do.
I didn’t see him as ever being in the top 100 prospects but he was in your top 10 a few years ago. His last full season he was a below average pitcher, with a 1.4 WHIP and a pretty high walk rate. But I believe in Pirates pitchers like Harrington who’ve not had good MLB showings so far (Harrington really has only had a cup of coffee so far, so not super comparable but still).
You’re right though–the Correa trade is really putting your lineup construction in a pickle. I selfishly hope a trade for Paredes works out but I don’t have too much hope that it will.
Paredes can play 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. He will get rotated, and cover for injuries. Easy 450 abs
“I selfishly hope a trade for Paredes works out but I don’t have too much hope that it will.”
What do you mean selfish?
Spencer Arrighetti had a injury riddled season (he was hit by JP Crawford and I reckon he doesn’t feel sorry), then elbow inflammation. I think that’s what is scaring everyone but he’s clearly fine. He was our #3 prospect coming into 2024 before graduating. I think he’s our #5 starter after Burrows #4, Javier #3, and Imai #2. Brown is obviously No.1. People still love Lance McCullers Jr., and starting pitchers have been very expensive this Offseason.
It’s a funny situation to be in though–an all-star third basemen being relegated to a utility man. It’s typically the other way around.
Selfish because I want the Pirates to get Paredes, not stay with the Astros.
Correa has a long injury history, so I might not be trading away my other 3b as quickly as a team with a solid starter might.
The Astros have the Crawford boxes. The rest of the league does not. Tough nut for the Astros to crack in trade talks
Larnach for Paredes is a good trade for Houston.
They are the team with the jam up. The question is, do the Twins want to extend Paredes and at what cost because they are in year one of a rebuild, aren’t built to win this season, pitching is more than a year away, and Paredes is a free agent in ’28.
The trade still makes sense for the Twins in that they have so much depth in the OF. Their farm is stacked with OF talent and they need to open up some playing time as soon as possible.
It is a surprise this trade isn’t a done deal. It says to me that the Astros value Paredes as a key contributor to their offense.
I dont blame them, Paredes is a really good ball player and a Jeremy Pena trade makes more sense.
The Astros should trade Pena.
The Pirates should be all over a Pena trade and Orlando Cruz would be a really good return for the Astros but the Pirates need more than Pena to make it square and the Astros are balking.
Astros should overpay for Cruz, Pena and prospects, stack the trade until Pittsburgh makes the deal.
If Pena was available, no question would I trade Cruz for him, particularly if it meant getting Pena and Zach Cole. A trade of Cruz and Bart for Pena and Cole would be crazy good.
I don’t see that happening though. And I don’t understand why the Astros aren’t viewing him as their starting LF. Myers, Smith, and Cole isn’t a bad outfield by any means.
Wow, what color is the sky in Larnach > Paredes land? MN would like to be there, immediately.
Larnach has been fairly available for quite a while. He’s a slightly below average LF who hits about league average against rh and well below against lh pitching. His contract is $4.7m, which is pretty much what he’s worth in the abstract, but maybe too much when you think that he probably needs a platoon partner.
Paredes is worth more than that. It’s why he’s paid twice as much. About the only thing this gets HOU is luxury tax breathing room.
That is not and they should not trade Pena unless they can’t extend him next year.
Pena is worth more than Cruz.
@No ABS
Trading Pena is a rebuilding move. I can see the Astros doing this if they are out of contention before the deadline.
His defense is certainly more valuable. I still think Cruz will improve his defense this year so that they’re a little more on par but Pena is a more established. Cruz’s ceiling is just super high that he hopefully reaches at some point.
Or if they can’t extend him next offseason and go the Tucker way.
Orlando Cruz? Oneil Cruz. You know nothing about the Astros and stop yapping stupid stuff.
Many articles by this site expected Larnich to be non tendered. That’s not the value you think it is.
FG shows him as the starting LF. MLB has him as their projected starting DH. The Twins should go into full rebuild mode if they’re starting someone who was going to be nontendered.
I’ve not seen him mentioned as a non-tender candidate but more as a trade candidate.
Id make that trade if I were the Astros but Id ask for Endy or Davis.
Id say not by much and its the Astros making the call. The Pirates have Garcia, Reynolds and Mangum, they can afford to part with Cruz.
Pena and Ullola for Cruz and Endy Rodriguez could be good.
The Astros would be getting fleeced here. Larnach amassed all of 0.1 bWar last year. Bart is a middling catcher who had one decent season in 2024. His bWar was 0.5 last season. Paredes is easily worth more than both of them.
@Astros71, Im always calling him Orlando Cruz off the top of my head. I dont know why, my mistake.
@Rolder, Pirates have good depth in the OF. Pena gives them good depth in the infield too. It isnt a “rebuild” move for the Astros if the can add a LHB like Cruz.
I would not because quality shortstops are rare and I’d want a haul. Say if I were trading with the Red Sox, I’d want Duran and Early+ prospects.
Helllllll naaaaaaah. Shut up here.
I dont you’re too far off here, but I think the Stros fans here are right in saying they aren’t giving up Paredes AND Arrighetti for that return. Now, I do think Spencer’s value is diminished for sure and other teams know Astros haven’t got a spot for Paredes so despite his perceived value he’s a bit diminished as well, but still. My adjustment would be that the Astros get Harrington as well here. Lanarch for Arrighetti is more than enough for the Twins end. And, Stros fans, don’t discount Lanarch and Bart, those are both solid players that would make your club better at spots of need.
I think that sounds good but I don’t know what it does to the Astros 40 man by adding one. Maybe that’s not a concern.
Blanco, Walter, and Wesneski can go to 60-day.
But the Astros don’t do that. If it was like that, Paredes would not be on our team.
Arrighetti’s value is diminshed, but the Astros value him more highly than his true value (likely). If we get Harrington too, that works (better). Arrighetti and Paredes for Larnach, Bart, and Harrington sounds somewhat fair, but I’d want an additional prospect along as an Astro fan. I like Larnach and Bart to fill our needs, but the price was just too high, nothing more to say.
That’s way too little of a return, Sal. Those two supposedly solid players combined for 0.6 War last year.
Harrington pitched in 8 MLB innings last year. You can’t go off his WAR numbers. He struggled last year but he can be a solid 5th starter and could work his way up from there.
Bart had 1.3 fWAR compared to Paredes 2.5 fWAR but he also had 100 fewer plate appearances. It’s also not out of the question that he could be closer to his 2024 season where he put up a very similar slash line as Paredes did last year:
Paredes 2025: .254/.352/.458
Bart 2024: .265/.337/.462
I’m not saying Bart is an all star but he’s definitely not a poor offer here. Especially if he got more at bats.
Hank, I don’t completely subscribe to War being the be all end all of stats. Look at what those guys have done day to day, ask their fans. I think both players are well worth it. Surely Lanrach for Arrighetti the Astros would do in a heartbeat now. Harrington and Bart is probably a tad lite, but in terms of the trade offered above I think the Astros overall take the return. then again, when broken down like this, it’s honestly two separate trades and you’re probably right on the Parades part.
Caminero hit into a ton of double plays last year! He hits bombs with 1/3 of his hits though so I guess it isn’t a big deal.
Yeah I think theyll live with it if he can hit 45 bombs regularly.
Wow-he did blow away the field there clearing Alonso (NL leader) by 8 gidp. Good news is there are mostly phenomenal players on that list over the years like Vlad Jr/Correa/Soto/Abreu, etc. Hit the ball hard, but not much sprint speed and it happens.
GDP are like RBI. You’ve got to be on a decent team, one with a ton of baserunners ahead of you.
Yeah rocket shots directly to an infielder tend to be easy double plays. I just saw the bold italics on his baseball reference page and it jumped out. 45 homers out of about 150 hits is pretty potent.
Jim Rice, amble on down.
The Twins have decent #4/5 options, the question is if they want to spend for some certainty. They are experienced down thru Ryan, Ober, SWR and Bradley, so they really aren’t desperate like shallower teams might be. Littell is a #3 on a bad team, not really better than SWR, and Giolito is damaged, only a Break Glass in Emergency guy for a wildcard team on August 10.
There are some pitchers at that level of meh in the Astros system that could be traded for the equally meh Larnach that would marginally improve both teams, but it’s hard to see either team bothering at this point.
Now if Ober isn’t over his hip thing, then yeah, they might need to make a move.
The idea that the Twins offering for Valdez indicates some room for spending is only valid in the event that Lopez could be traded to free $20m of payroll.
If Valdez was somehow landed on a shocker Correa-like deal then Lopez would have been in Boston for an OF in about 2 hours. There’s no way a $120m payroll would have had $50m in two players.
Which is to say that payroll wiggle room is dead now that Lopez is on the shelf.
The Astros should have checked out that Kyle Tucker guy.
They did. Saw the price tag and left laughing.
Christian Yelich may waive his full no trade to go to the Astros if Milwaukee and Houston can work out the dollars and prospect return
There’s no rotation options available better than what the twins have. They need to figure out what they have with Zebby, Bradley, SWR, Abel.
With Lopez going down that means they need help with the bullpen even more so now.
Doubt they’ll bring anyone else in though. Tom Pohlad sucks
There is a good Twins article on Minnesota Sports Fan with some great photos of Tom Kelly who won a pair of World Series championships with the Twins in the ’80’s and 90’s. Kelly not only looked the part, he was a great manager.
In the article, it says the Twins are going back to a focus on fundamental baseball, and new Twins’ manager Derek Shelton, who has been with the organization for over a decade, has been consulting with Kelly on the small details that win games.
Twins were one of the worst defenses in MLB last season. Can Derek Shelton get them on track or is it more of an issue with player personnel?
Twins have some good young players and a good farm system. They made the right moves last season to add some good pitching prospects at the trade deadline. I think they are a few years away in year one of a rebuild but Derek Shelton was a good hire. Promoting the guy from within who has been with the team was the right move. If he can exude some of Tom Kelly’s charisma and apply some his old school wisdom in his leadership, the Twins are on the right track and will be competitive sooner than later.
Meh, not sure how much I trust that, it sounds like something that Tom Pohlad is pushing next to his “serious competitor” stories. He may need them to be serious competitors to stay profitable, just as better defense could solve a lot of pitching problems, but that doesn’t mean they’ve built a team for that.
Dropping a couple gold glove 1B for Josh Bell is not a defense first move. Standing pat on Lee at SS without a solid backup is not a defense first plan. Not signing a good defensive CF to back up Buxton like they have in the past several years is not a defense first move. Larnach and Wallner still penciled in the OF?
I’m not seeing the personnel to make this fundamentals thing happen.
Bell seems more likely to DH than play First Base. Wagaman likely platoons with Clemens. There will also be guys who get cut at the end of camp so you never know, if Ty France doesn’t make the Padres a reunion with the Twins could be a possibility
They are still focusing on offense no matter what Derek thinks he’s emphasizing in spring training. It will come down to the bat of Wagaman/Celmens vs Larnach or Wallner and the outfielders are going to win that against RH pitching every time.
@crise – I imagine you are referring to Jose Miranda at 1B. They must have liked Wagaman more than Miranda.
Id agree, in a rebuild, Bell is an odd choice.
You’d think Wallner or Larnach could play 1B and open up some OF at-bats for one of their young OF’s. Jenkins and Gonzalez both ready for at-bats.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, Alan Roden, Kyler Fedko all could have gotten some starts at 1B too.
Something has to give. A Buxton trade and a Larnach trade seem like the best options to opening up the OF.
I like Marek Houston at SS, could move up quickly.
As far as Bell at 1B, can’t see the logic behind signing him.
I don’t think the Twins are rebuilding.
Lopahfeedo!
Verdugo would be interesting for the Astros but he’s been toast offensively since the second half of the ’24 season. In theory they may be able to get both Verdugo and Conforto on minor league deals, if not Conforto then Winker and let them battle it out in camp
Verdugo would be perfect for the Asstros.
I‘m surprised that they haven’t already sign him.
If it’s a MiLB deal, sure.