Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Astros still looking for outfield help:
The Astros have been looking for left-handed outfield help throughout the offseason in an effort to balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. One might think that the team’s recent acquisition of Joey Loperfido helped to solve that issue, but it was more of a net-neutral move given that Loperfido was brought in as the return for lefty-swinging outfielder Jesus Sanchez. Yesterday’s report that Houston has some interest in veteran outfielder Michael Conforto suggests they’re still open to a lower end move in free agency, and a trade of Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker could still theoretically yield the left-handed hitter the team has sought. Other lefties still available in free agency include Jesse Winker and Alex Verdugo.
2. Will the Rays be able to extend another young star?
The Rays have long been known to get aggressive with extensions for their players, dating back to early-career deals for Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. In more recent years, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Pete Fairbanks, and Tyler Glasnow are among the players they’ve extended prior to or early in arbitration, even if many of those players were ultimately traded before those extensions ran their course.
Budding superstar Junior Caminero has voiced an openness to an extension this week. The question is whether or not the Rays have interest in putting together the sort of offer it would take to lock up a 22-year-old who just hit 45 homers in his first full MLB season. It would surely require the Rays leaving their typical comfort zone, though Tampa Bay did give Wander Franco a $182MM deal before his career came to an abrupt halt over off-the-field improprieties and legal issues. That was under Stu Sternberg’s ownership, and it’s unclear what appetite the team’s new ownership group would have for a big-time extension of that sort.
3. Will the Twins add to their rotation?
Yesterday’s news that Twins ace Pablo López suffered a UCL tear that will likely end his season was a gut punch for a Minnesota club that opted not to follow up on last summer’s deadline sell-off and instead make some modest additions to the roster. The rotation, led by López and Joe Ryan, had the makings of a solid group. Bailey Ober is looking to bounce back from a hip injury, while Simeon Woods Richardson pitched well down the stretch. Young arms like Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp give the Twins plenty of options to round out the staff.
However, the Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez, with new executive chair Tom Pohlad publicly confirming the team’s interest. That was before López suffered his elbow injury. There’s no one akin to Valdez left in free agency, but the Twins clearly have at least some room for additional spending, and free agency offers names like Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell.
I’d be willing to help them in the outfield.
Me too! I carry a career ~.001 WRc+, but I have a great clubhouse presence! (I’d be willing to loose half my league minimum in all club-house/plane flight/hotel poker games😊)
I’ll just let you be an entertainment director for the Astros that plays poker with our players.
Get that glove ready.
Clearly Giolito is overvaluing himself.
Littell is a one year and 5 million guy.
Dude was worth about $24M last year and almost that the year before. Giolito was worth about $16M.
If 1 bWAR is worth $8M.
Littell may be an extremely good deal for some teams. I would want to get signed so I get a full Spring training in.
Giolito is injury prone. Your numbers work, but only on a non guaranteed contract.
Not saying either gets near what they were worth last year at this point.
Is there such a thing as a non guaranteed one year contract? Doesn’t the contract become guaranteed the moment they make the team out of ST, even split contracts?
Generally if they make the roster they get paid.
I would love to hear a good answer to your question though. I would just be guessing.
A minor-league deal is non-guaranteed. All MLB deals are guaranteed, for players with 6.000 years of experience.
Just put bonuses for appearances or innings pitched on top of a low base contract.
Littell maybe 7 to 10mil range + tiered incentives for IP? Younger than Quintana who got 6mil. Whatever it is, even as injuries happen in ST, clubs have seen that pitchers are often bad at least early on when they hold out into March (or have wasted value appearances in minors to get in rhythm).
Teams can take advantage of his desperation. Savvy teams can get him for 5 mil.
I think he should be able to get $10M but we’ll see. He doesn’t seem to have the skill set teams pay up for. The perennial decent, underpaid starter. A’s should offer him $15M.
Come on Astros and Twins.
Astros get Larnach and Bart
Twins get Harrington and Arraghetti
Pirates get Paredes
That trade makes zero sense for the Astros. Great trade for the other teams, but still, no way the Astros make that deal.
Can you explain why?
Paredes has way more value than Larnach and Bart, and that’s not even counting giving up Arraghetti. You don’t give up a all star 3rd basemen (122 ops+ past 3 years), a starter with multiple years of control for a average outfielder and a back up catcher.
Paredes is better than either one of them in isolation. Put together, they fill two needs the Astros have–an unsexy move, yes, but not a bad baseball move.
The Astros likely will not work out a one for one trade because of the three criteria they’ve been seeking (which is why them missing out on Duran is frustrating because he didn’t check the salary box in the Astros search).
I didn’t know how valuable Arrighetti seems to be to the Astros. He probably is too much to throw in to a trade like this.
It does solve two needs, but because the return is light, I’d reckon the Astros want a prospect to fill in Paredes. You don’t throw something in a “fair” trade or a trade that you have sent more value then your getting back. Also, don’t trust BTV’s trade value for Arrighetti. I think it’s like 4 and it sucks.
If the Astros would take prospects, there is no reason on God’s green earth for the Pirates to not be engaged and the most aggressive suitor then. We have ample prospects to make a good offer and while Paredes doesn’t fit PNC Park as exactly as Pirates fans want, he is a mammoth upgrade to what our current starting lineup is on the left-side of the infield.
And in anticipation of AI GM getting in and saying that Paredes and Triolo have the same bWAR, I’ll say that defense (which bWAR weights more heavily than fWAR) did not get the Pirates very far last year. We need bats.
You come on.
Larnach and Bart is not worth Paredes much less Paredes and Arrighetti. Also you spelled Spencer’s name wrong, How dare you!
I keep seeing Astros fans talk about Spencer Spaghetti as a throw in. Maybe he’s more valuable than people are discussing him as? I see he’s an injury risk so that has to be factored in as well. I don’t know. I don’t know that Astros system and frankly based on how you guys talk about Paredes being the most valuable third basemen in the league yet he’s currently scheduled to be on your bench is super confusing. Is he a starter or is he not? Is he worth Larnach or is he more worth Dalton Varsho.
If the Twins would do it for just Larnach and getting Harrington, I’d absolutely do that. But as I’ve said for weeks since they’ve said they’re shopping Paredes, the three criteria the Astros FO are looking for:
–equally valuable player whether WAR, OPS+, or wRC+ wise as Paredes
–left handed outfielder
–that is cheaper than Paredes contract
These criteria will lead you to have Paredes sit the bench for the next two years and wait for injury. That might be a smart strategy but you will likely end up with Conforto which honestly isn’t a bad outcome.
He is way more than people are talking about him. He’s supposed to be a starter, but Jim Crane made a Correa trade.
He very well could be. I’ve not heard Arrighetti talked about so he could be super valuable. I see him listed as your 6th starter as a temporary 6 man rotation, so that doesn’t scream someone who the team desperately wants to protect but you guys know much more than I do.
I didn’t see him as ever being in the top 100 prospects but he was in your top 10 a few years ago. His last full season he was a below average pitcher, with a 1.4 WHIP and a pretty high walk rate. But I believe in Pirates pitchers like Harrington who’ve not had good MLB showings so far (Harrington really has only had a cup of coffee so far, so not super comparable but still).
You’re right though–the Correa trade is really putting your lineup construction in a pickle. I selfishly hope a trade for Paredes works out but I don’t have too much hope that it will.
Paredes can play 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. He will get rotated, and cover for injuries. Easy 450 abs
“I selfishly hope a trade for Paredes works out but I don’t have too much hope that it will.”
What do you mean selfish?
Spencer Arrighetti had a injury riddled season (he was hit by JP Crawford and I reckon he doesn’t feel sorry), then elbow inflammation. I think that’s what is scaring everyone but he’s clearly fine. He was our #3 prospect coming into 2024 before graduating. I think he’s our #5 starter after Burrows #4, Javier #3, and Imai #2. Brown is obviously No.1. People still love Lance McCullers Jr., and starting pitchers have been very expensive this Offseason.
It’s a funny situation to be in though–an all-star third basemen being relegated to a utility man. It’s typically the other way around.
Selfish because I want the Pirates to get Paredes, not stay with the Astros.
The Astros have the Crawford boxes. The rest of the league does not. Tough nut for the Astros to crack in trade talks
I dont you’re too far off here, but I think the Stros fans here are right in saying they aren’t giving up Paredes AND Arrighetti for that return. Now, I do think Spencer’s value is diminished for sure and other teams know Astros haven’t got a spot for Paredes so despite his perceived value he’s a bit diminished as well, but still. My adjustment would be that the Astros get Harrington as well here. Lanarch for Arrighetti is more than enough for the Twins end. And, Stros fans, don’t discount Lanarch and Bart, those are both solid players that would make your club better at spots of need.
I think that sounds good but I don’t know what it does to the Astros 40 man by adding one. Maybe that’s not a concern.
Blanco, Walter, and Wesneski can go to 60-day.
But the Astros don’t do that. If it was like that, Paredes would not be on our team.
Caminero hit into a ton of double plays last year! He hits bombs with 1/3 of his hits though so I guess it isn’t a big deal.
Yeah I think theyll live with it if he can hit 45 bombs regularly.
Wow-he did blow away the field there clearing Alonso (NL leader) by 8 gidp. Good news is there are mostly phenomenal players on that list over the years like Vlad Jr/Correa/Soto/Abreu, etc. Hit the ball hard, but not much sprint speed and it happens.
GDP are like RBI. You’ve got to be on a decent team, one with a ton of baserunners ahead of you.
Yeah rocket shots directly to an infielder tend to be easy double plays. I just saw the bold italics on his baseball reference page and it jumped out. 45 homers out of about 150 hits is pretty potent.
Jim Rice, amble on down.
The Twins have decent #4/5 options, the question is if they want to spend for some certainty. They are experienced down thru Ryan, Ober, SWR and Bradley, so they really aren’t desperate like shallower teams might be. Littell is a #3 on a bad team, not really better than SWR, and Giolito is damaged, only a Break Glass in Emergency guy for a wildcard team on August 10.
There are some pitchers at that level of meh in the Astros system that could be traded for the equally meh Larnach that would marginally improve both teams, but it’s hard to see either team bothering at this point.
Now if Ober isn’t over his hip thing, then yeah, they might need to make a move.
The idea that the Twins offering for Valdez indicates some room for spending is only valid in the event that Lopez could be traded to free $20m of payroll.
If Valdez was somehow landed on a shocker Correa-like deal then Lopez would have been in Boston for an OF in about 2 hours. There’s no way a $120m payroll would have had $50m in two players.
Which is to say that payroll wiggle room is dead now that Lopez is on the shelf.
The Astros should have checked out that Kyle Tucker guy.
They did. Saw the price tag and left laughing.
Christian Yelich may waive his full no trade to go to the Astros if Milwaukee and Houston can work out the dollars and prospect return
There’s no rotation options available better than what the twins have. They need to figure out what they have with Zebby, Bradley, SWR, Abel.
With Lopez going down that means they need help with the bullpen even more so now.
Doubt they’ll bring anyone else in though. Tom Pohlad sucks
There is a good Twins article on Minnesota Sports Fan with some great photos of Tom Kelly who won a pair of World Series championships with the Twins in the ’80’s and 90’s. Kelly not only looked the part, he was a great manager.
In the article, it says the Twins are going back to a focus on fundamental baseball, and new Twins’ manager Derek Shelton, who has been with the organization for over a decade, has been consulting with Kelly on the small details that win games.
Twins were one of the worst defenses in MLB last season. Can Derek Shelton get them on track or is it more of an issue with player personnel?
Twins have some good young players and a good farm system. They made the right moves last season to add some good pitching prospects at the trade deadline. I think they are a few years away in year one of a rebuild but Derek Shelton was a good hire. Promoting the guy from within who has been with the team was the right move. If he can exude some of Tom Kelly’s charisma and apply some his old school wisdom in his leadership, the Twins are on the right track and will be competitive sooner than later.