Yainer Diaz won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Francys Romero. The catcher, a PRIME client, will be paid a $4.5MM salary instead of the team’s $3MM filing figure.
Diaz earns a strong payday in his first trip through the arbitration process. The benefit of the win goes beyond the extra $1.5MM he’ll make than if he’d lost the hearing. It also sets a higher baseline for his final two years. The process is designed for players’ salaries to climb as they get closer to free agency, so there’ll be compounding benefits to today’s result.
The 27-year-old Diaz is one of the better catchers in the sport. He’s a career .279/.305/.454 hitter in nearly 1600 plate appearances. Baseball Reference has valued him around three wins above replacement in each of his first three seasons. He has topped 20 doubles in each and is coming off his second 20-homer campaign. Diaz hit .256/.284/.417 with 20 longballs and 70 runs driven in across 143 games a year ago.
That included a career-high 111 starts behind the plate, plus 24 as a designated hitter. Diaz caught the seventh-most innings in MLB. They’ll need him to take a similarly heavy workload now that high-end backup Victor Caratini departed to sign a two-year deal with Minnesota. César Salazar is expected to step into the backup role.
A $1.5MM isn’t a huge difference for a team in isolation, though it takes on a little more importance for the Astros than it would for most clubs. RosterResource estimated their luxury tax payroll within the $238-240MM range depending on the hearing result. Ownership reportedly wants to remain below the $244MM base tax threshold, so this could have a modest impact on the front office’s midseason flexibility on the trade front.
Today was a strong start for the players in arbitration. Orioles righty Kyle Bradish also won his case, pushing players to 2-0 thus far. The Diaz and Bradish hearings took place yesterday. Dylan Lee and Edwin Uceta had hearings last week, though their results are being held until other comparable cases are decided. According to The Associated Press, the Blue Jays had their hearing with left-hander Eric Lauer this afternoon, though that ruling is also expected to be held for a later date. Tomorrow is the biggest date of the arbitration class, as the Tigers and Tarik Skubal are set to present their cases with a record $13MM gap between their respective filing figures.
Now we’re all “getting along”. He’s going to hold this against them. Astros don’t make playoffs even if this guy goes nuclear. 3rd place at best.
A very nice bump in pay.
Cool. Hope he rakes.
Boo. Diaz does not deserve this money after taking a step back. However, if Diaz hits 30 homers and 100+ RBI, I’ll be happy. Show me you deserve this Diaz!
If he was a free agent, right now, what kind of deal do you think he’d get? Surely much more than 4.5MM.
Danny Jansen just got 2/14.5MM lol.
Right. If Tarik Skubal was a free agent right now, how much would he get? Or rather, what about Jeremy Pena? When you are in arbitration, especially in your first time going through, you don’t earn your market value. Do you know how arb works?
I completely understand how arbitration works. However, the poster I replied to said “show me you deserve this Diaz!”
That’s different than “show me you deserve this salary as your first arbitration salary!”
And regardless, I find the arbitration process dumb and it’s just a way to suppress young player salaries. Why should service time matter for the salary? He could put up identical seasons the next two years and receive significant salary boosts. Why. It’s crazy.
So thanks for your hate on arbitration salaries.
Brown got 5.7 million. If he was a free agent right now, how much would he get? 30 million+. Why did he only get 5.7 million?
A-He was in arbitration.
Free agency worth has nothing to do with it. There are comparables and his past production (including negative defensive value) and service time are what is to be compared. Under the current CBA, players have to wait six years. As for Skubal, the argument is as a two time consecutive Cy Young winner, there are no comparisons. The issue for the arbitrator is will he/she narrowly look at that or understand as great as he is, there are others nearly on the same level. Looking at what the top pitchers got in the past along with what Crochet will ultimately get in his sixth year might be Detroit’s argument. I’m not saying I agree with that logic because there was risk for Boston when that deal was done. It will interesting to see how this plays out, especially with the new CBA just around the corner.
This is generally true, except for players who have 5 years or more of MLB service time.
From the CBA: The arbitration panel shall,
except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group
—
That line is going to allow Boras to hopefully get Skubal to win his arbitration hearing.
Seriously? Dude put up 2.7 WAR and you don’t think he’s worth the extra 1.5MM? He easily would have found an AAV of 10MM on the open market. What a weird take.
Again, players going through arbitration, especially your first time, you tend to earn less. In addition, it also gives a higher base. Framber Valdez’s market value was sure to be more than 18 million. How come he didn’t earn that much?
Also, you are literally regurgitating Joemo’s comment so I’m regurgitating what I wrote in the previous comment.
Yeah but arbitration is not free agency. If Diaz puts up a negative WAR next season he still going to earn more the next year than he did this year. His base will be 4.5 million, that’s why teams go to arbitration to set themselves up for the next arbitration years that follow after. Most smart teams non tender those players if they become to expensive and aren’t productive.
Good catchers are expensive man
Id take Diaz for 4.5 million
Thats a steal comparatively speaking
And he hits pretty well above league average for the position. Catchers take a beating
Did you see the step that Diaz stepped back. Many compare him joining as a 30 year old. Without Caratini, he’s going to play a lot more, doubt he can handle that.
Yeah I see the step back he took. He could have been playing through any number of things. He did better than Realmuto offensively and Realmuto just signed for 3 years 45 million with performance bonuses? Diaz is like 10 years younger than Realamuto. Its a pretty good deal. Salazar is still on the team? Hes not gonna pick up Caratinis slack? With Diaz the main catcher. Most teams carry two catchers these days. Some even have 3. Caratini has never been much of a hitter himself
Caratini performed league average.
Ridiculous take. How many catchers in the past 20 years have hit 30/100? Cal Raleigh (twice) and Salvador Perez.
Seems illogical that we are supposed to ignore his previous 2 years when determining his salary yet then you bring up that raises in the first arbitration year may lead to teams having to cut players later on. Why should that effect what they get paid? Why are you projecting forward but we are not supposed to take his full body of work into account? The FA contracts have risen. Have these salaries kept up proportionately? So basically anything they do before the arbitration years should be irrelevant and if they keep performing at high levels they may have a chance their last year of getting around what they actually are worth (but we need to guard against that because some guys aren’t gonna be worth what arbitration would be giving them in year 6.) Sounds fair.
The rest goes without saying. If you can’t tell arbitration is a rip off for the players idk what to tell you.
Yeah but he isn’t a free agent right now even hypothetically speaking. He’s going to arbitration and at his first go at it. I was surprised he won. He definitely deserves it but that type of pay raise seems substantial but nonetheless he won his case so all credit to him. He’s going to need to put up a good year or else risk being a non tender candidate at the end of the year.
If they non tender him there should be a pretty long line of suitors.
I put the odds of him being nontendered < 0.01%
I am surprised he won as well. He is at no risk of being non-tendered, unless Walker Janek is the rookie of the year or something and one of our catching prospects is very good and Diaz actually STINKS. He doesn’t stink on that level.
Yeah I mean it’s extreme if he’s to get non tender especially at catcher since it’s such a hard position to fill even at replacement level player. But if he complete falters this season or gets injured than that’s a different story, that’s when he becomes a non tender candidate.
Reese McGuire was the only non-tendered catcher I believe.
I am not impressed with Diaz by any means. I know everyone was going bonkers because he was not used in Dusty’s last season as skipper.
Myself Dusty was a great manager over Espada and more. Espada has NO CLUE. But Diaz had some moments yes but he has NO defensive skills like throwing runners out trying to steal. Neither did Caratini. What will Salazar have as back up. I had heard talk of bringing Vasquez back but myself a big no on that.
Maldy was not much better in both fields. He was worse.
Dusty had one good season managing the Astros. His last season was probably his worst season in Houston. Diaz was the much better player. It wasn’t even close.
Over his 3 years he has caught 22% of base stealers, league average is 21% over that time. Doesn’t seem like he has NO defense
He was good in his first year. That must’ve brought his value up. He has an arm, but doesn’t have a defense. Field:40
Astros kind of blew this one by offering far too low. The MLBTR projections aren’t the be all – end all but serve as a decent guide. That projection was the $4.5 he got.
Big fantasy season coming from this fella
For the club 1.5M is a rounding error. For a guy going from 3.0M to 4.5M, its a huge payday. He’d demand at least twice that on the open market and a few years guaranteed also.
Causal: I mean from a business and team standpoint 1.5 ain’t that big of a deal. For the astros it kinda is, they are that much closer to the luxury tax threshold. That’s just less moves they can make over the offseason and especially in season at the deadline. It’s the difference between signing another relief pitcher or even utility guy.
Just a decent catcher is hard to find these days, so no surprise he won.
For 4.5m and the production he put up, it’s a pretty good price for him.