With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, while our readers overwhelmingly (58%) voted for the Tigers in our poll on the AL Central. Today, we’ll be moving on to the AL West. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Seattle Mariners (90-72)
Powered by an MVP-caliber season from star catcher Cal Raleigh, the Mariners surged ahead of the pack in the AL West last year and fell just one game short of reaching the World Series. Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco departed via free agency, but the rest of that team is more or less intact. A rotation led by Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo figures to once again be among the very best in baseball, and they’ll be backed up by a bullpen that added lefty Jose A. Ferrer to pair with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in high-leverage situations. The big addition to the offense is utilityman Brendan Donovan, who’ll primarily play third base and help lengthen a lineup featuring Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena and breakout slugger Dominic Canzone. The offense could improve even more if young second baseman Cole Young and/or top prospect Colt Emerson prove they can be impact players in 2026, but it’s easy to make the argument that Seattle remains the most well-rounded team in the division even without those improvements.
Houston Astros (87-75)
The Astros missed the postseason for the first time since 2016 last year, and the team was not as aggressive as one might have expected this winter. That’s not to say the Astros were inactive. They replaced Framber Valdez at the top of the rotation with Tatsuya Imai and brought in Mike Burrows from the Pirates to add further depth to a rotation that was often held together by duct tape and bubblegum last year. Houston will bring back a nearly identical offense, only swapping Mauricio Dubon for Nick Allen and Jesus Sanchez for Joey Loperfido while going to internal backup Cesar Salazar as a replacement for Victor Caratini. The Astros explored trades of infielder Isaac Paredes and tried to get another left-handed bat, but they’ve come up empty to date. The uncertain health of closer Josh Hader only adds to the question marks facing Houston as they look to return to the top of this division.
Texas Rangers (81-81)
After a second consecutive disappointing season, the Rangers moved on from second baseman Marcus Semien, outfielder Adolis Garcia, and catcher Jonah Heim. Semien was traded to the Mets for outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who will take over right field following Garcia’s non-tender. Heim, also non-tendered, will be replaced by catcher Danny Jansen. Nimmo and Jansen should be upgrades over Heim and Garcia, though the team lost some positional depth by forcing Josh Smith into the everyday role at second base. The addition of MacKenzie Gore to an already talented rotation should allow the Rangers’ starters to once again be among the best in baseball, but they’ll need better health from Corey Seager and more production from Joc Pederson and Josh Jung if they’re going to compete for the division title this year.
The Athletics (76-86)
While it’s been a busy and exciting offseason for fans of the A’s, that excitement has mostly been focused on extensions. Long-term deals for Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson are encouraging for the long-term health of the franchise but don’t move the needle in 2026. The A’s added Jeff McNeil to help the offense at second base, and a full season of Nick Kurtz in the majors won’t hurt. Strong as the offense looks, the club’s lack of pitching additions for a roster that struggled to prevent runs even before losing Mason Miller at the trade deadline creates plenty of concern. They’ll need a lot to break right, particularly in the bullpen.
Los Angeles Angels (72-90)
As is often the case with the Angels, it’s not impossible to squint and see the bones of a solid team. Mike Trout was healthier last season than he’s been in a very long time. Jo Adell slugged 40 homers in 2025. Jorge Soler remains a potential middle-of-the-order force when healthy. Josh Lowe was a high-upside addition, and it’s not impossible to imagine any of Nolan Schanuel, Reid Detmers, and Christian Moore following in the footsteps of Zach Neto to become high quality regulars. Unfortunately, fans in Anaheim know that the club has been in this situation virtually every year for the past decade. They’ve seen far too many potential-laden teams undercut by a lack of depth before finishing the season underwater and failing to reach the playoffs. Perhaps this year will be different, but Angels fans have earned their skepticism, especially following an offseason where Lowe, Kirby Yates, and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is already injured) were the club’s biggest additions.
How do MLBTR readers think the AL West will shake out this year? Will the Mariners continue to reign supreme? Will the Astros find a way to reestablish themselves as the class of the AL? Was the Rangers’ roster shakeup enough to get them back to the playoffs? Or could the A’s or Angels surprise with a big season? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the AL West in 2026?
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Seattle Mariners 66% (3,469)
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Houston Astros 11% (553)
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Texas Rangers 8% (444)
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The Athletics 8% (441)
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Los Angeles Angels 6% (329)
Total votes: 5,236
I want the Astros to win the division but the Mariners are a true powerhouse. I think we’ll be pretty good and win at least 90 games but the Mariners seem like a team that wins almost 100.
Don’t count out the A’s. Yes, pitching deep is a consideration but nonetheless this is for sure a dark horse team…
I agree they are a dark horse, but not to win the division. A possible fight for a Wild Card down the stretch?? That’s very plausible.
I’m a die hard Ms fan, and the As are who I’m scared of.
Angels Rockies WS incoming
Real
The Angels, easily… wait, this isn’t 2014.
Mariners seem as strong, maybe even stronger than they were last year. I wouldn’t call them a lock but it’s theirs to lose.
I think the A’s could play the spoiler. They play the Mariners 7 times in September and they end the season at home against the Astros. If they’re a team that’s just getting better with time, well as I said, they could make the race to the finish interesting.
Mariners look great on paper but it took them a long time last year to finally decide they wanted to be a playoff team. They had to win 17 out of 25 in September and rely on Houston completely fizzling out in the second half just to win the division. 90 wins probably won’t get them a #2 seed again this year.
You can say that about all of the contenders right now. Last year nobody won 100 games. Not even the Dodgers, and they’re the biggest baddest bullies in the same division as the 43-119 Rockies!
You have to remember the Mariners had health issues within the rotation all season. Starting with Kirby, then Gilbert, Bryce Miller basically incapacitated all year and Bryan Woo at the very end and missing the playoffs. Castillo was the only steady Rock. That’s why M’s had to play catch up there in September.
That’s true to some extent but injuries to starting pitchers are to be expected. Compared to a lot of other teams, the Mariners have been fairly lucky. Only 34 starts outside of the top 5 last year and almost never having two guys out at the same time.
After starting the year 0-30, the Angels will be prompted to make some moves, including Jo Adell for Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, and Anthony Volpe, alongside moving Keibeirt Ruiz for Mookie and Will Smith. They will also trade for Skenes and Skubal in a 3 team trade in which they give up Matthew Lugo and Zach Neto. After these moves, they go on a 143 game winning streak and Mike Trout gets his first ring. Book it now.
LOL
I’d be impressed if they could trade someone else’s player to get players on their team. Maybe you meant they would utilize another 3 team trade involving Ruiz for Mookie and Will Smith. Perhaps sending O’Hoppe to the Nationals?
No, Moreno is going to hold the Lerners at gunpoint if they don’t trade Ruiz for nothing
There’s not a GM incompetent enough to trade for 3/4 of the angels roster. The one incompetent GM that would actually do it unfortunately is our own GM
My AL West hot takes nobody asked for:
– A’s will win more games than they lose
– Astros finish third behind Texas (2) and Seattle (1)
the A’s are such a fun team to follow right now. They have a ton of young talent both at the MLB level and on the way there.
Yeah but wait until they trade all of that young talent away because they get too expensive lol
2021 called and wants your hot takes back…
– Arte Moreno will sit on the toilet and think of additional ways to eff up a once proud franchise.
Have to go with Seattle in this one. That rotation is simply stacked and I love the addition of Gorman to their lineup. That’s a really good club up there and a great ballpark.
Gorman?
My mistake. Donovan. Not sure how I got those two mixed up.
I do get the Cardinals/former Cardinals mixed up sometimes as well. Nobody really stands out on that team anymore.
Gorman Thomas of course, early 1980’s era Mariners hitting sensation.
Do you mean Donovan?
Gorman is still on The Cards.
Yes. I made a mistake.
Mariners, easily. They have the best mix of depth and talent up and down the roster right now. Their weakest positions are SS/2B but that’s only because JP’s lost a step defensively and Young is still relatively unknown. Each are still slated for at least 2 WAR according to the projections, though, which is average regular territory. DH is the hammock for the veterans, as ot should be. If the rotation can stay mostly healthy, and I think they will, then they’re locked into a top 3 seed.
Whoever wins gets the opportunity to be swept out of the wild card round by whatever Al east team finishes 3rd.
Seattle says hold my beer. Houston says not so fast. LAA, A’s, and TEX watch from the stands.
Heck yeah
Seattle wins.
Texas a little surprise to finish 2nd.
Houston is a .500 club again.
Oakland will score runs.
Angels play for a draft pick. Imagine if they would’ve traded Trout and Ohtani to restock their farm system.
“Houston is a .500 club again.”
They were 12 games above .500, is that .500? Or are you thinking of 2016 when they were 84-78 (6 games above .500). They were just terrible from 2011-2014. When was the last time they were about .500?
And we were 12 above in that injury riddled year. Expect a 90 win team for me.
cinredsfan: “Angels play for draft pick.”
The resulting pick will be capped at 11th. Then we’ll squander that on some mid-ceiling college guy who is “ready for the MLB”. The team will stay at the AAAA level, which will make Arte happy because that saves on payroll, and he believes Angels fans don’t care about winning.
On paper, the Seattle Mariners look like the team nobody wants to admit is sitting in pole position. Deep rotation, athletic lineup, real upside they’re the kind of roster that sneaks up on you until suddenly they’re in first place in late August.
Houston Astros
Still the division’s measuring stick. Still loaded. Still the team everyone has to get through. They’re the link you can’t break until someone actually knocks them off.
Las Vegas A’s
Call them a long shot if you want but they’re young, fast, and explosive. The kind of team that doesn’t know they’re supposed to lose yet. Dangerous in all the ways a rebuilding club shouldn’t be.
They Mariners knocked them off last year. Houston is loaded but I don’t no with what?
Mariners are double triple loaded
Thanks for giving the Astros real credit.
I push back on the Astros still being the team to beat these days. They’re good, I think they’ll win 85 games and maybe they’ll sneak in as a wild card, but the remaining core players that won all those championships are getting old. Altuve had the worst season of his career, and his defense has been trash for a while. Correa gets banged up constantly, and his power has dropped off. Alvarez is glass, the outfield situation is pretty abysmal, and I’m not 100% sold on Imai being as good as or better than Valdez yet. Hader’s contract has been a disappointment at best. Their system has been decimated by being a win-now team for a decade, plus the loss of draft picks as punishment for cheating years ago isn’t helping. They can develop good players with what they have but at some point the talent drops off when you’re not picking in the first round. They really don’t have a ton of ammo to swing good trades to get over the hump if they find themselves in it by the deadline.
Altuve’s defense is worse than trash. I’m be higher on Hader and Imai than you, and I think there’s hidden talent but yeah there’s not really much ammo. I think Cam Smith and Mike Burrows will breakout, Christian Walker and Yaner Diaz will rebound and we’ll be pretty good. Just my opinion.
Not really our golden days though.
It’s the Mariners division to lose at this point. You can’t count out the Astros. The A’s are a dark horse. The Rangers could be in it. The Angels will make it 12 straight seasons without a postseason birth
A’s are going to be super annoying because their lineup is a top5 offense and then you play them in a YMCA ballpark where anything can happen. Their pitching and bullpen will be their downfall tho
Not the Angels!
It will likely be the Mariners. Having said that, the darkhorse pick for me is the Rangers.
Angels are not in consideration due to the owner of the team not putting winning as a top 5 priority.
PECOTA 3/23/26
Mariners 94-68
Astros 85-77
Rangers 85-77
Athletics 76-86
Angels 66-96
Fangraphs 3/23/26
Mariners 88-74
Rangers 81-81
Astros 80-82
Athletics 79-83
Angels 72-90
BetMGM Win Totals
Mariners 89.5
Astros 86.5
Rangers 83.5
Athletics 75.5
Angels 70.5
The Miracle on St College begins In Houston on Thursday.
Astros News MLBTR should report: Arrighetti optioned to Sugar Land and we are starting season on 5 man rotation.
I’m a Mariners fan and am so excited.
The Angels!!!
Because last year the writers at Fangraphs had the Blue Jays picked dead last with no chance of making the playoffs.
Reid Detmers wins 17 games and finishes 3rd in Cy Young balloting.
Jose Soriano leads the AL with a 2.48 ERA
Zach Neto has a 30/30 season.
Mike Trout stays healthy and crushes 44 home runs.
Logan O’Hoppe puts it together and launches 31 home runs.
Jorge Soler and Jo Adell each connect for 37 home runs.
(Johnny sits down and catches his breath)
This has nothing to do with the fact that I just finished drinking my 3rd Old Fashioned this evening.
Love ya Johnny. To bad the only way any of those guys reach those numbers is in MLB the show 26
It will be the Mariners. Sometimes you need to learn how to lose before you can win.
With the amazing playoff that we had last season all round baseball
Unfortunately, that Mariners Blue Jays series will not be talked about as much because of some of the other things that happened
That was a fantastic series and I’m hoping that’s the ALCS again this year
I hope this year that the plants are half as good as they were last year and we’d be in for a huge treat
But enjoy it while it lasts cause there’s gonna be no baseball for quite some time after this season
“But enjoy it while it lasts cause there’s gonna be no baseball for quite some time after this season”
Oh great, a ‘lockout fan’. There will be baseball in 2027.
Stick to soccer.
Five reasons why there will be a long lock out and if there is any type of season it will be under 81 games in 27
Salary cap/floor
Deferred money
Cheap Owners
Scott Boras
Kyle Tucker making 55 million
Adell hit 37 home runs in 2025, not 40.