With the 2026 season set to begin today, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. Yesterday, MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted (66%) to predict the Dodgers would win the NL West. Today, we’ll be moving on to the NL Central. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Milwaukee Brewers (97-65)
The Brewers were the best team in baseball by regular season record last year. While their close NLDS matchup against their division rivals from Chicago and a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS did little to answer questions about the club’s viability in October, they’ve won three straight division titles and haven’t finished a 162-game season with fewer than 86 wins since 2016. At some point, it becomes hard not to reward that consistency, and even after a winter where the club traded away Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, and Caleb Durbin without making any obviously impactful additions to the roster, it’s easy to imagine Milwaukee’s run of success continuing in 2026. Jackson Chourio is certainly capable of a breakout, and Jacob Misiorowski could make Brewers fans forget Peralta in a hurry if the flamethrowing righty takes a step forward.
Chicago Cubs (92-70)
The Cubs failed to win the division last season, lost to their division rivals in the ALDS, and watched superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker walk in free agency over the offseason. Despite all of that, however, Chicago is viewed by some around the game as the heavy favorite in the NL Central. That’s thanks to a busy offseason where they brought Alex Bregman into the organization and landed right-hander Edward Cabrera in trade. Those external additions, larger contributions from up-and-coming youngsters Moises Ballesteros and Cade Horton, and the healthy return of Justin Steele to the top of the club’s rotation should all help the Cubs make up for the loss of Tucker. The true x-factor for Chicago’s hopes in the division this year, however, will surely be the recently-extended Pete Crow-Armstrong. If he looks anything like he did in the first half of 2025, he should be in the MVP conversation and help lead the Cubs to new heights. If he’s more like his second half, however, the Cubs could find themselves on the outside looking in for what should be a competitive NL Central race this year.
Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
The Reds shocked many fans and analysts when they managed to squeak into the postseason last year, and this offseason saw them bring old friend Eugenio Suarez back into the fold to add some thump to a lineup that was lackluster for most of 2026. It was a strong addition to be sure, but the loss of both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo for the start of the 2026 season will put a lot of pressure on young arms like Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, and Brandon Williamson to carry the team in the early parts of the season. If the team’s youngsters can do that until Greene returns to his spot at the top of the rotation, perhaps Suarez and Elly De La Cruz can create enough offense to get the Reds to the postseason in more convincing fashion this year.
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
The Cardinals finally executed their long-teased rebuild this offseason, dealing away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado in the span of three months. The resulting team has plenty of reasons for hope in the future, including star prospect JJ Wetherholt, but for the time being, it’s hard to see this club as anything other than the obvious weak link in the NL Central. A banner rookie season from Wetherholt would need to be combined with big steps forward for players like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Matthew Liberatore alongside a rebound for Dustin May if there’s going to be any hope of playoff baseball in St. Louis this year. That’s a tall order to say the least, but players like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera at least look like solid building blocks for the future.
Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)
The Pirates may have finished fifth in the NL Central last year, but it would be a shock to see them do so again in 2026. They’re a popular darkhorse pick to even take the division this year, and it’s not hard to see why. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes might be the best pitcher on the planet, and he’s backed up by a strong rotation that also includes Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller headed into 2026. Those pitchers will be supported by a completely rebuilt offense this year, as Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn, and Jake Mangum are all in place to help boost a lineup that relied on Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds as its middle of the order bats last year. A bullpen that lost David Bednar at last year’s trade deadline but added Gregory Soto over the winter comes with some questions, and the team’s defense seems likely to leave something to be desired, but this is easily the most competitive the Pirates have been in a decade.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL Central will shake out this year? Will Milwaukee’s dominance continue despite dealing away Peralta and others? Will the Cubs take that extra step even after losing Kyle Tucker? Have the Pirates or Reds done enough to bridge the gap and push themselves into the conversation? Or will the Cardinals’ expected rebuilding phase end before it even begins? Have your say in the poll below:
Every year the Brewers look worse on paper and yet they continue to win. They do some dark magic witchcraft in Milwaukee I’m sure of it. I’d say they’re a mortal lock at this point to win the division
LLLL
Can we find a new narrative please? I’ve only heard this about five thousand times already this month.
Milwaukee’s dark magic and witchcraft make them a. mortal lock to win the NL Central. That or they have a unique player development approach that works better than it would seem like it would to outsiders. But it’s probably the magic and witchcraft.
Ouch the reds got fewer votes than the pirates?
Why wouldn’t they?
Probably because the Pirates have an ace in the hole.
stallion…..only goes to show what the fans know…..which ain’t much!
People continue to under-rate Pat Murphy. Give me the Brewers.
Yeah people buy the Cubbie hype every year and Milwaukee wins the division.
Chubbies will poop the bed like they always do
They were great last yr were they not? Sure they lost to the Brewers in the yoffs but I dont see Milwaukee putting up a fight when it matters most
When it matters most, such as in the yoffs??
Ya the divisional round is their world series thats for sure
I mean it would be crazy to pick anyone but the Doyers to win the WS, but the poll is asking who will win the NL Central. Brewers put up a better fight than the Cubs when it mattered most to the Cubs. *shrug*
“Putting up a fight when it matters most”…like 1. winning the division and 2. beating the Cubs in the playoffs.
And you’ll keep trolling..
Until they actually lose, I have to vote for the Brewers. Every year they are discounted and every year it seems like they win.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 National League Central Champions. World Series between Pittsburgh and Detroit.
Put your money down. The odds are really high. A $2000 bet earns you $100k if you win.
That’s an excellent return. I’ve got like three monopoly games in there. Let me go get some cash.
Anyone who doesn’t vote Pirates is a cowardly landlubber who will walk the plank
Could not bring myself to vote for Pitt but will cast my vote for them if the poll is “who do you want to win the NL Central”. It would be a great feel good story for MLB.
Every team going thru a rebuild, including Pittsburgh, has to set a goal of playing .500 ball before reaching higher.
Hmmm, sounds like something a cowardly landlubber might say…
Cubs. Alex Bregman is going to be big for the Cubs and Edward Cabrera shores up the rotation.
Bregman didn’t show up for the WBC although his spring training stats were solid otherwise. Remember, Cubs added Bregman but lost Tucker so it’s not a pure plus.
But every year the Brewers are picked to finish second and overachieve — at least for the past three seasons. Too much focus on “losing Peralta,” not enough on what they got in return, and some serious improvement in offense from Ortiz, full season of Vaughn, etc.
I went bold and picked the Pirates. Why not? They have a pulse, so anything is possible.
I’ll go with the second most obvious answer after “which ever team has the most wins,” between the Brewers and the Cubs it’ll end up being whoever has less go wrong or whoever has more go right. Yes, an obvious answer and when you use enough words you can pretend it sounds like an intelligent and well thought out opinion. But honestly, I got little else.
With everything the Brewers gave up they still look solid. With everything the Cubs added they seem only really marginally better. Reds are going to be tenacious and fight for every inch of ground, probably won’t win the division but I’d be surprised if they’re out of the WC race before September. As for the Pirates, well let me know when Griffin is up and we’ll see if he’s the answer to the prayers of the long suffering Pittsburgh fans. The only really great answer seems to be the Cards are likely going to be hanging out at the bottom of the standings for the year.
Yup, sure… This is totally the Cubs year!
PCA contract is going to age very well!
Palencia is a real closer!
Steele will be fine by ASG!
Cube and their bankroll will be watching the Brewers play playoffs baseball. Again
Freddy Peralta is hard to replace but you could argue in Miz’s second season he could get 14 of Freddies wins back plus a full season of woody. Collins is easily replaceable with Garrett Mitchell if he stays healthy. replacing Durbin is something they did not succeed with but maybe you catch the same fire in a bottle with the if depth and great defense they have. Brewers still win the division by a narrow amount over the improved Cubs. 91 wins for the crew, 90 wins for the Cubs. Reds or Pirates make the playoffs with 85 wins – whoever gets hotter at the end of year.
This should be a great division to watch.
I went with the Cubs but realize somehow Milwaukee will probably take it. They seem to always do so.
How the Cubs don’t win this division every year is embarrassing.
Dang, looks like the Cubs won the off-season again.
Every metric, statistic, or quantifiable measure of performance points to the Cardinals winning 102 games. I’m laying in bed next to 90s Kim Bassinger and I have a Ferrari Dino in the garage, so this is definitely real.
Go Cards!
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