With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central. Yesterday, MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted (66%) to predict the Mariners would win the AL West. Today, we’ll be moving on to the National League, starting with the NL West. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
The Dodgers may have not even qualified for a playoff bye last year, but their dominant performance during the postseason quelled any doubt about the club being the class of the National League. Los Angeles did not rest on its laurels this offseason, adding two more superstars: outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Edwin Diaz. That duo levels up a roster that already sports Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Mookie Betts among many other high-end players. As has become the norm, the Dodgers enter 2026 as the overwhelming favorite to win the division, although their aging and injury-prone core will surely start showing cracks at some point. Will this year be that year?
San Diego Padres (90-72)
On paper, the Padres might look to some as if they’re more likely to miss the playoffs entirely than overtake the Dodgers in the NL West. The silver living for San Diego, then, is that this was also true headed into the 2025 season. Despite that narrative, the Padres managed to spend much of the summer in a virtual tie with Los Angeles, and they were in sole possession of first place as late as August 23. This year, they’ll look to defy the odds once again with a patchwork rotation that offers little certainty outside of Nick Pivetta and a lineup that wasn’t substantially improved over the offseason. The biggest additions to San Diego relative to last year, in all likelihood, will be full seasons from star closer Mason Miller and veteran outfielder Ramon Laureano.
San Francisco Giants (81-81)
After a splashy trade for Rafael Devers last June, the Giants ended up selling at last year’s trade deadline. Their efforts to get back in the playoff hunt for 2026 this winter were more complementary than impactful. Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser join a rotation that lost Justin Verlander. The lineup added a glove-first outfielder in Harrison Bader and a bat-first infielder in Luis Arraez. Still, the team looks solid on paper. Those additions leave the San Francisco offense without many obvious holes, and the rotation sports one of the game’s best starters in Logan Webb plus a former Cy Young winner in Robbie Ray. Perhaps the biggest question facing the Giants this year is in the bullpen. San Francisco traded Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval last July and lost Randy Rodriguez to Tommy John surgery in September. None have been replaced. That could leave the club bleeding runs in the late innings without big steps forward from players like Erik Miller and Jose Butto.
Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)
Just about everything that could go wrong on the pitching side did so for the Diamondbacks last year. Zac Gallen had the worst season of his career. Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, and A.J. Puk all underwent elbow surgery. Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez had seasons to forget. Their team is weaker on paper headed into 2026 than it was in 2025, as their big offseason additions were reunions with Gallen and Merrill Kelly, plus additions at the infield corners (Carlos Santana and Nolan Arenado) won’t match the offensive output of those positions’ previous occupants (Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez). Even so, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are legitimate superstars. Geraldo Perdomo might be one as well. If the team’s veteran pitchers can turn things around, perhaps the Diamondbacks could ride their strong offensive nucleus back into the postseason.
Colorado Rockies (43-119)
Following a 119-loss season in 2025, Colorado made some small moves under new front office boss Paul DePodesta but nothing that would truly move the needle. Jake McCarthy, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzen, and Jose Quintana have certainly all had their fair share of success in the past, but each profiles as a complementary player at the best of times. Perhaps those moves working out plus steps forward from key pieces like Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar could help the Rockies avoid another 100-loss season, but a division title or Wild Card berth are both pipe dreams.
Who do MLBTR readers think will win the NL West? Have your say in the poll:
Who will win the NL West in 2026?
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Los Angeles Dodgers 66% (2,924)
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San Diego Padres 12% (523)
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Colorado Rockies 10% (449)
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San Francisco Giants 9% (403)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 3% (138)
Total votes: 4,437
Dodgers by a country mile
66% of people who voted are sane.
we are just goofing off. we’ll need to find ways to entertain ourselves next year without baseball.
“we’ll need to find ways to entertain ourselves next year without baseball.”
You ‘lockout fans’ are getting really really annoying.
There will be baseball next year.
I imagine the 11% voting Rockies were not serious, hard to take this particular poll seriously to be honest.
I sm serious. And dont call me Shirley
“hard to take this particular poll seriously to be honest.”
Im joking too, I dont think there’s a bunch of insane people here.
Dodgers don’t care about the regular season. They’ll load-manage per usual and use their depth on the bench and in the minors. It’ll definitely be closer than it really should….
I believe they care plenty about the regular season. You can’t turn the caring switch on and off, and it will need to be on come October.
Will they try to pace the roster, especially the pitchers? Sure. But that doesn’t translate into not caring.
Of course they care. It’s semantics. They won’t be trying to break the wins record….
Semantics is all about what words mean. And who said they were trying to break any records? I believe they have their sights set on the bye this year, and the main risk in them not getting it is easing up on the gas pedal.
I wasn’t being literal with them not caring. The priority is October, obviously. That’s why it’ll go down to the wire. Again….
But it’s just semantics to say that semantics are about what words mean BSLA.
Hey best of luck to you guys on the injury front. I understand that the rest of us in the NL West are playing for 2nd place
Kinda been that way for the last dozen or so seasons….
If you break the record for highest payroll, shouldn’t fans expect you to break the record for wins?
No. Because that isn’t the name of the game.
Mmmm, I’m think by a city block, but that’s me. 🤣
This should be a riveting poll
May I defer in participating?
I just put $1,000 on the Padres. I juat returned from the future, and things are going to go well for them.
First question: Since you’ve returned from the future, are we all still alive by then? Second, why only a grand?
I wonder if the votes for the Giants are real or troll votes. I feel like they’re so overrated. Terrible outfield depth, terrible starting depth, and no bullpen. Sounds like the same 81-81 team they’ve had since 2017 (2021 notwithstanding)
definitely troll votes. this is mlbtr after all.
Break the record for what, bragging rights? The Dodgers have been there, done that, and have painful starting and relief injuries and postseason losses to show for it.
There’s no preconception about what spending should get you other than a chance to do well, get into the postseason, and hopefully go deeper. There’s no preconception-scripted outcomes in baseball, that’s why the games are played. Yankees and Mets are testaments to how spending didn’t buy them anything.
Most non-LA votes are trolling. Barring a slow start and then a catastrophic event that ends the season, the Dodgers will win the division.
I’m voting for The Padres because I am not a dodgers fan
Poor logic
I second this. The last decade is just one year after another of the Giants getting included in the quality team conversation for no good reason at all. The one freak year when they won the division in like 2021 doesn’t help. It’s slowed the fanbase from accepting that they are just not that good.
But better this season.
You sure the Giants have been included in the quality team conversations over the last decade ? I follow pretty closely and they have pretty much been pegged as a 50/50 team which is what they have done outside of 21.
In short, Ive either missed the quality team conversations or those conversations haven’t existed.
I mainly meant the last two seasons
The Giants votes are trolls. The Rockies votes on the other hand…
Rockies in 2nd at the moment lol
I am LOVING that the Rockies are in second here. I don’t care if it is a pity vote or not, this is best position the Rockies have been in for years.
The state of Colorado and surrounding area deserves a competitive baseball team, especially with that stadium of theirs.
Every fanbase in the country (even the Marlins) deserves a team at least trying to be competitive each and every year. It just amazes me how many fans are content for teams to purposely tank for years in the hope that the seeds with eventually blossom into a beautiful garden. The problem that it doesn’t work that way every time. The one thing I am most proud of with my Rockies is that they hav always tried to win each and every year. They might not do it well very often, but they do try. They have never gone into a year trading away everyone with any kind of experience just to field a minor league team. I’d rather have that than a three year tank job.
Everyone is going to vote for the Rockies, I can feel it haha.
The least we can do is give the Rockies this poll win
I picked the Padres. I believe playing all these playoff games the 3 years or so will finally catch up to the Dodgers..
There is a strong possibility for regression here. The Dodgers field the oldest roster in Baseball and that can only last so long
Are you predicting a series of on-field coronaries? And what are they regressing to, pray tell?
Ha ha. Very good. It’s like the Padres got a year younger.
They are regressing from, not to.
On average:
For position players
0.5 bWAR per season from age 31-35
1.2 bWAR per season from age 36-40
For pitchers that regression is delayed by one year in the first grouping to age 32-35, but the numbers are the same. The 2nd grouping is the same ages and numbers.
If you know the actual definition of regression, it’s impossible to regress from, because regression is always to a mean. As made, your statement is (pun intended) meaningless.
1 – a return to a former or less developed state
2 – A measure of the relation between the mean value of one variable (e.g. output) and corresponding values of other variables (e.g. time and cost).
The mean in this case is not their individual performance, its the mean of all performance in MLB. It is also not TO, its toward, if you want to get into the semantics of statistical analysis.
They are regressing from their level of performance last season by 0.5 WAR or 1.2 WAR depending on their age.
That you are arguing semantics instead of the actual stats shows how high your level of fear is about the regression the Dodgers are expected to experience due to advancing age.
Yes, a return to a prior state in general terms, and a reversion to a mean in statistical terms. If you are talking about decline, just say decline. So yes, I am arguing “semantics,” which itself is defined as the meaning of words. This shows no level of “fear” of anything, just annoyance at the misuse of language. Try again.
I mean they are still planning on Max Muncy at 3rd base…
They haven’t developed anything of significance from their system since Will Smith (he turns 31 in 4 days).
Yamamoto is awesome for sure, but beyond that the Dodgers pitching staff seems just as likely to ruin a pitcher these days than build him up. They’ve done nothing to improve Glasnow or Snell in terms of performance or reliability, this is entirely leaving out the mess they have made of Tanner Scott and Sasaki.
They have the best roster in baseball on paper sure, but anyone who thinks they don’t have holes is probably one of a gazillion Dodger fans the last two years have bred.
Every team has holes. Depth does its best to cover em up….
Andy Pages was the #11 OF by fWAR last year and he was definitely developed by LA. Michael Busch was developed in LA (zero games in minors for CHC) but shipped off to CHC because there was no room for him.
Saying they haven’t developed anyone since Will Smith is definitely not true. This also ignores young pitchers that are real contributors: Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, Dreyer, etc.
oh and Max Muncy is good btw.
@99socalfrc
What have the Dodgers developed? Back to back trophies. The rest is all noise.
However, if one takes a more complete view of Dodger prospects, we see that they are no better—and possibly worse—than some other clubs in developing talent. What the Dodgers do best is (1) Buying the top talent and (2) trading over-hyped prospects for quality players. That’s a talent in itself. But woe, if you believed in Ruiz, or Verdugo, Lux, Rios, Cartaya, LaRoche, (Bobby) Miller, Gonsolin, Outman, McKinstry, T. Thompson . . .
LaRoche? cmon thats over 20 years ago. If you go back that far you would be including guys like Kershaw and Seager.
I don’t like Verdugo but he’s had a career better than probably 80% of prospects ever will.
Trayce Thompson wasn’t developed by LA and McKinstry was not a prospect of note, never even a top 10 guy in the LA system.
They were just able to hand over $57m per annum for Kyle Tucker to be their 5th best hitter. Im thinking they don’t really need prospects.
“5th best hitter” remains to be seen, but I take your point.
LOL This thread is a prime example of how jaded Dodger fan is. Noone can even point out that they have very little homegrown talent on the field without them getting defensive. It’s not enough for Dodger fan to be happy his team is winning, you need to be happy about it too.
Reasonable baseball fans are simply saying the Dodgers have bought a huge amount of talent, but they are not invincible.
statement made and disputed by facts.
99socalfrc: “LOL so defensive”
No team is invincible. And no one cares if you are happy about the Dodgers winning, or not. All Dodger fans know there are more Dodger haters than Dodger fans.
Oderunt eos quamdiu timeant. Let them hate us so long as they fear us.
Last season Tucker would have been the 5th best by wRC+ or OPS+.
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Muncy
Tucker
All of the guys above him on that list are 31 or older, so some regression should be expected. I don’t think anyone expects Smith to repeat 2025. Tucker could be the Dodger’s 2nd best hitter in 2026 if he stays healthy.
No one really fears the Dodgers.
Quoting a Machiavellian quote that was the favorite saying of the sadistic and psychotic tyrant Caligula is not exactly helping your cause. Do you remember what happened to Caligula?
Well, they lost the 3 games they played in ’23. So, there’s that….
If it does, it will only catch up in the playoffs
Padres are notorious for not being able to stack 4 months of above avg baseball in a row.
Show, how many teams did last season? The Dodgers didn’t.
Love the polls but this ones a waste of time
closer poll would’ve been Dodgers v. the field
The polling percentages don’t add up to 100%. Something wasn’t rounded correctly.
It’s fine, they’re using Steiner Math.
Sorry, but rounding rules in math can lead to the polling percentages not adding to one hundred percent. Simple example would be a poll where there are three choices and each choice gets one- third of the votes or 33%. 3 X 33% = 99%.
Votes for the Dodgers had to be recalculated to today’s value as many were defered, and won’t mean as much in the future.
Kinda wish I voted for the Rox now…
Silly poll gets a silly response from me lol
Padres take the west. doyers are getting old and even the cheating contract of the dh can’t hide the flaws forever. Tucker is a low effort bum. Kershaw jumped ship before it sinks.
Shut up and focus on your Cubs and Iowa.
It will come down to starting pitching for the Padres this year. If guys like Buehler, Marquez, Canning (eventually) and Vasquez can be at least a little better than serviceable then it will probably make up for the top three starters (King, Pivetta, Musgrove) not being as great as they have been in the past due to either long layoff, injury, major surgery or simple regression to the mean.
Three things I like about this Padres team are improved hitting, bullpen , and having guys like Castellanos and Laureano available from day one of the season. These two guys will hopefully be at least somewhat protective (verbally and whatever else is required) when teams start throwing at Tatis. And having Mason Miller around from day one will help in that regard too. I personally think having Castellanos around as a “protector” is a huge plus for the Padres this year that is at the moment – mostly – flying under the radar. The Padres are full of “nice guys”. Manny does speak out about this to some degree (regarding Tatis specifically) but I’m worried that he’s become a little soft in his protection lately due to his very vocal full appreciation of how the Dodgers spend money.
We’ll see if the Padres can clear 90 wins in 2026. Their depth isn’t that deep and they too are getting older. Kershaw had an 18 year career punctuated by being a back to back champion. He certainly earned the right to go out on his terms.
As for flaws, every team has them, but the Dodgers have good, predictable depth to cover multiple positions if needed. As for the DH, he seems to be doing pretty well, working under a perfectly legit CBA contract that a number of other players have utilized as well. Of course you call it cheating because your team doesn’t have the smarts or the balls to execute deferred contracts so you resort to badmouthing successful teams.
Regarding Tucker, we’ll just have to see if he flourishes in the LA environment. If he ends up a top 10-15 player, offensively or defensively, or both, would you acknowledge that? Or would you still be mad he just didn’t perform for your Cubbies?
One of the most boring divisions in baseball. Why watch? Dodgers already got in the bag.
I was going to go the meme answer route and pick the Rockies, but decided to play it straight in the end.
So, the Dodgers, obviously.
Well 12% have trolled this poll with the Rockies, probably the easiest pick for last in the MLB, so it’s definitely been meme-trolled enough already.
This is the one of the most useless poll I’ve ever seen. If you voted for anyone other than LA, you’re delusional.
a vote for the padres if you’re already a padres fan is more hopeful than delusional, but a thin line nonetheless.
Oh. Very serious.
Gee, I wonder. The only season they didn’t win the NL West since 2013, they also won 106 games. I would be flabbergasted if the Padres or Giants won that division.
Padres still beating the protest vote!
Ha ha. My favourite poll. Love it.
In saying that, it was way closer than anticipated last year.
Hanging onto the thought of a Tony Vitello inspired fairytale that tops all previous fairytales !
I find it funny 11% voted for the Rockies.
Oderunt eos quamdiu timeant
Perdono lead of marte carroll moreno lawlar let see if he square mistakes then gurriel goes back to 4th with moreno protecting him for a month smith barrosa arrenado thomas.
well said
Giant’s won’t win the division but they will surprise a lot of people, they get in this year as a wild card
Their bullpen is worse than last year, so maybe they play above expectations to hold those leads.
They could also score an extra run or two.
That is a fan’s wish practically every game for them. They have a habit of 1 run leads.
Hoping a full season of devers and arraez can produce more runs.
Yeah. Need a career year out of Raffy.
I absolutely love that as of 4:13 pm Central, 243 people have voted for a team that will come closer to 120 losses than the division lead.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance……
I’m surprised the Rockies are currently getting 12% of the votes
Jake McCarthy mvp
Colorado will be sneaky good? 🤷♂️
At what?
At beer! Have you been to Coors Field?
Coors Field is a good ballpark. Easy access, clean, decent food and a home team my guys can manhandle.
They may have found a way to strongly humidify their visiting team hits
The injured list wins the NL West when Dodger players are put on it for rest and come back for playoff time again.
Dodgers were supposed to be 120-42 last year after signing ohtani. Oh well wild card World Series again
The story is really who can finish second?
Padres – have the players that could put a run, clearly team to beat for the position
Giants – the forever .500 team has chances but they decimated their bullpen last season through trades, so it really comes to can they hold leads and score enough to give BP some insurance runs.
DiamondBacks – They are similar to giants but they did not decimate their BP but they don’t have the pitching staff that elevates them either. It will come down to their bats and scoring.
Rockies – they got last place on lockdown, but it seems they have improved through youth movement that could surprise in making a big jump from last season
How did 300+ people vote for the Rockies?
@Dr Danger
Same people who never met a lame deferral joke they don’t like.
To quote JP from my second favorite baseball movie, ‘hey, it could happen’
Bull Durham and Field of Dreams are 1 and 1-A.
Major League for me. Mostly cuz I’m a comedy guy….
Unless Thanos comes back and wipes out half the Dodger roster, its the dodgers all the way.
Just like the Mariners in the AL West, the Dodgers are automatically winning the NL West.
Dodgers obviously the heavy favorite to win it all. Best team money can buy.
I mean, is it REALLY THAT big of a question!?
Don’t look now, but the Rockies are tied for first at the moment.
Sports as in life, happens. Then we ponder what happened and what will happen next. And the pondering takes up most of our lives.