Diamondbacks Don’t Expect Merrill Kelly To Return In 2020
Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly landed on the injured list with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder Monday. Now, according to general manager Mike Hazen, Kelly probably won’t return this season after undergoing surgery to address a blood clot, per reports from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
The loss of Kelly seems like bad news on multiple fronts for the Diamondbacks. As owners of a 13-18 record, the D-backs could have sold a healthy Kelly off before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained shortly before he went on the IL. On the other hand, if Arizona wanted to continue pushing for a playoff spot, Kelly could have helped its cause. The 31-year-old has been one of its top starters this season, having recorded a 2.59 ERA/3.95 FIP with 8.33 K/9, 1.44 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate in five appearances and 31 1/3 innings.
Aside from Kelly and Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ rotation has gotten little production from anyone who has received multiple starts this year. Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver have all endured disastrous seasons, while Alex Young has provided middle-of-the-road numbers over three starts. But Bumgarner, who has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, figures to return soon. He should slot in along with Gallen, Ray, Weaver and either Young or Taylor Clarke when he does come back.
Kelly, meanwhile, will remain under Diamondbacks control in 2021 if they want to keep him. They’ll have to decide on a $4.25MM option or a $500K buyout in the offseason.
Pitching Notes: Hader, Bumgarner, Pearson, Dodgers, Beeks, Wright
On a night in which White Sox ace Lucas Giolito fired the first no-hitter of 2020, let’s check in on several other notable pitchers…
- The Brewers are “listening” to offers for star reliever Josh Hader, but it’s not likely the club will trade the 26-year-old left-hander before the Aug. 31 deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Milwaukee was also willing to entertain proposals for Hader last winter, but it elected to retain him heading into this year – his first of four potential arbitration seasons. For a bargain price this season (a prorated $4.1MM), Hader has given the Brewers 9 1/3 scoreless, hitless innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He’s obviously not someone the Brewers are going to give up for anything less than a massive offer.
- After throwing a 70-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner could be closing in on a return from the injured list, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Bumgarner has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, but he came out of his bullpen session unscathed, which manager Torey Lovullo called “very encouraging news.” The former Giant’s first season as a Diamondback has been anything but encouraging, though. After inking a five-year, $85MM contract in the offseason, Bumgarner has logged a 9.35 ERA/8.79 FIP with 6.75 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 23.7 percent groundball rate in 17 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph on his fastball during that four-start stretch, but Lovullo revealed Bumgarner’s “velo ticked up a little bit” during sim games.
- Right-hander Nate Pearson, whom the Blue Jays placed on the IL on Aug. 19, has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN. He’s hoping to play catch this weekend, Mitchell reports, though it remains unclear if the rookie will return in 2020. Pearson struggled to a 6.61 ERA/7.60 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 over four starts and 16 1/3 frames before going on the shelf.
- Dodgers righty Joe Kelly has been on the IL since Aug. 10 with shoulder inflammation, and a return isn’t imminent for the reliever. Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com) that Kelly remains “a ways away” from rejoining the Dodgers. When Kelly does come back, he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a July 28 dustup with the Astros. Meanwhile, Dodgers lefty Alex Wood won’t come off the IL before the end of the month, Gurnick tweets. Wood, who’s also dealing with shoulder inflammation, has only made one appearance this year (on July 25).
- The Rays’ injury-laden pitching staff may have lost yet another hurler Tuesday, when southpaw Jalen Beeks left their game with an elbow/forearm issue. Manager Kevin Cash didn’t come off as optimistic afterward, saying (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), “It sounded similar to Kitt, but we don’t know anything yet.” Cash was referring to righty Andrew Kittredge, who went on the 45-day IL on Aug. 12 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. A similar fate would be a season-ender for Beeks, who has been terrific in 2020. The 27-year-old has notched a 3.26 ERA and a much more impressive 1.74 FIP with 12.1 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9 across 19 1/3 innings.
- Veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 13, 2019, but the former Red Sox righty informed Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s not ready to call it a career. “I just don’t want to sit back in a few years and wish I had tried it,” said the soon-to-be 36-year-old Wright, who threw 35 pitches from a mound last week and told Abraham, “I’m throwing two bullpens a week and I’m feeling healthy for the first time since 2016.” Wright was an All-Star that year, but he then faced knee problems, Tommy John surgery, a performance-enhancing drugs suspension and an arrest on domestic violence charges (which led to a 15-game ban) during the ensuing seasons.
Pitching Notes: D-backs, Cubs, Verlander
Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray is drawing interest from “a few teams” as a bullpen possibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. The 28-year-old left-hander has only made three relief appearances in his career (none since his first season in 2014); however, after several respectable seasons as a starter, the soon-to-be free agent has tanked in 2020. He owns an awful 8.33 ERA/7.77 FIP with 8.33 BB/9 across 27 innings this year, though some clubs may have hope that Ray’s high-strikeout ways will lead to success in the bullpen during the stretch run of the season. That said, there’s no guarantee the Diamondbacks will move Ray before the Aug. 31 deadline, as they entered Monday a manageable two games back of a wild-card spot.
- More on the Diamondbacks, who made righty Merrill Kelly a late scratch before his start Monday. It was easy to speculate on a potential trade when that happened, but it turns out Kelly is dealing with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. The club has placed Kelly on the 10-day injured list as a result and recalled righty Riley Smith. Kelly has been quite effective this season, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained Monday, so losing him is a blow to the D-backs’ playoff hopes and perhaps a less-than-ideal development heading into the deadline.
- Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana and righty Tyler Chatwood will come off the injured list Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Quintana, who has been out all season after undergoing left thumb surgery, will work from the bullpen upon his return. That’s relatively new territory for Quintana, who has totaled just four relief appearances out of 250 in his career. As Wittenmyer notes, though, Quintana could find himself back in a starting role soon if Chatwood or Alec Mills falters (Mills didn’t in a win over Detroit on Monday). Chatwood, who will start Tuesday, turned in a pair of great outings to open the season, but he went on the IL with a back issue after the Royals shellacked him for eight earned runs on 11 hits in 2 1/3 innings on Aug. 6. He’s now set to rejoin Mills, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester in the Cubs’ rotation.
- It has been nearly a month since the Astros shut down ace Justin Verlander because of a right forearm strain, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner continues to make progress in his recovery. Manager Dusty Baker issued an update on Verlander on Monday, saying to Mark Berman of Fox 26 and other reporters: “I think he threw 20 pitches yesterday. He said he felt pretty good. That’s a positive sign.” It’s still unknown whether Verlander will make it back this year, especially with only about a month remaining in the regular season. Houston has started 15-13 despite only one appearance from Verlander (and several other notable injuries), putting the team two games back of a wild-card spot.
Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip
Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.
Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.
But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.
It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.
Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.
Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.
“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.
Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.
None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.
Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.
Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.
That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.
There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.
D-backs Eyeing Bullpen Upgrades
The Diamondbacks have shaken off an early slump to get themselves back to .500 and keep themselves in the playoff picture in a bizarre 2020 season. At the moment, the team hopes to add pieces with the trade deadline looming, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. General manager Mike Hazen spoke to Piecoro about his club’s potential deadline approach, noting that the bullpen could be an area of focus.
“I think going down the stretch and looking at how playoff runs and games transpire, I think the more firepower you have out there the better,” Hazen said of the bullpen. The D-backs could also look for an upgrade at designated hitter in the hopes of getting some more home run power in the lineup, but they’ll take a look at recently recalled Kevin Cron in that role for now.
To this point, Arizona relievers have combined for a 4.62 ERA that ranks 18th in the Majors. (Their 5.01 FIP lands 22nd, and their 4.70 xFIP is 20th.) It’s been a roughly middle-of-the-pack unit, with closer Archie Bradley and righty Stefan Crichton looking particularly sharp in this year’s small sample of innings. Fellow righties Taylor Widener and Taylor Clarke have given strong bottom-line results, but their poor command calls into question just how sustainable those low ERAs are. Offseason pickup Hector Rondon, meanwhile, has been hit hard. Lefty stalwart Andrew Chafin landed on the injured list due to a finger sprain this week, which removes him from the equation at least temporarily.
Suffice it to say, there’s room for at least another arm or two in the ‘pen, although the intricacies and oddities of this shortened 2020 season make trade values difficult to determine. Hazen explores that concept in his interview with Piecoro, which is well worth a full read-through, calling this a “bizarre” deadline season that will put all 30 clubs outside their comfort zones.
As for the newly created designated hitter spot in the NL, the D-backs haven’t gotten much production there. While their combined .245/.311/.351 output obviously trounces what could’ve been expected from the pitching staff, it still ranks 16th in the game in terms of wRC+ and leaves clear room for an upgrade. David Peralta and Christian Walker have hit well while DH’ing, but they’re better served playing on the defensive side of things — particularly in the case of Walker, as Jake Lamb has struggled to hit at all in 2020.
There’s time yet for Cron, who led the minors in long balls and homered in nearly 10 percent of his plate appearances last year, to change the club’s thinking, but the desire to add some more pop is plenty justifiable. Arizona has hit just 22 home runs as a team, which is tied for 26th among MLB’s 30 clubs. And even that poor standing undersells their lack of pop; two of the four clubs that trail the D-backs are the Marlins and Cardinals, who both missed more than a week of games due to Covid-19 outbreaks on their rosters. Among teams that have played a full slate of games, only the Rangers and Pirates have hit fewer homers than the D-backs.
Any middle-of-the-pack team’s thinking is still somewhat subject to change, of course. We see teams pivot with their deadline approach at the eleventh hour even in standard 162-game seasons, and the short nature of this year’s schedule could lead to even more of that. Were the D-backs to drop six of their next seven games, the front office would surely rethink its approach, for instance. But for the time being, it appears they’re taking an optimistic outlook and eyeing one of the 16 available postseason spots this season has to offer.
60-Man Player Pool Additions: D-backs, Rangers, Brewers
The latest 60-man player pool moves from around the league, all via team announcements…
- Outfielder Kristian Robinson is now in the Diamondbacks’ pool (not the one at Chase Field just yet). The club signed the Bahamian for a $2.5MM bonus in 2017, and he’s now the Diamondbacks’ No. 1-ranked prospect at MLB.com, which also ranks him 47th overall in the sport. MLB.com calls the 19-year-old “a physical specimen” who could develop into a “revered” slugger in the majors. Robinson divided last year between low-A and Single-A, slashing .282/.368/.514 with 14 home runs in 291 plate appearances.
- The Rangers have added second baseman Justin Foscue, their first-round pick this year, to their pool. The 21-year-old Foscue joined the Rangers as the 14th overall choice after an outstanding run at Mississippi State. Texas locked him up for a below-slot bonus ($3.25MM) in late June.
- Catcher Payton Henry is now at the alternate training site of the Brewers, who used a sixth-round pick on him in 2016. The 23-year-old Henry, who hit .242/.315/.395 with 14 home runs in 482 plate appearances at Single-A last season, possesses “considerable raw power” and has made enough progress behind the plate to stick as a catcher, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes.
Diamondbacks Select Matt Grace
The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected left-hander Matt Grace from their alternate training site. In a corresponding move, they placed southpaw Andrew Chafin on the 10-day injured list with a left finger sprain.
Grace saw action with the Nationals in each season from 2015-19, though he didn’t take part in their run to the World Series last season. He made his final appearance with the Nats last Aug. 23, and the team designated him for assignment after that. The Diamondbacks then brought him in on a minor league deal in the offseason.
Grace struggled to a 6.36 ERA in 46 2/3 innings in his final season in Washington, but he did put up OK overall numbers during his time there. In all, he threw 176 1/3 frames of 4.29 ERA/4.04 FIP ball with 6.74 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 53.4 percent groundball rate.
Chafin has been a quality reliever for the D-backs since his debut in 2014, but this season has not gone according to plan for the 30-year-old. He has already surrendered six earned runs on nine hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings, and both lefties and righties have given him trouble so far.
Diamondbacks Release James Sherfy
The Diamondbacks have released reliever James Sherfy, per a team announcement. The right-hander had been part of their 60-man roster.
Sherfy will now have to find another organization for the first time in his career. The Diamondbacks used a 10th-round pick on Sherfy in 2013, and he went on to appear in the majors with the team in each of the previous three seasons. During that span Sherfy actually posted rather impressive overall numbers – a 2.98 ERA/3.82 FIP with 9.53 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 – but he did so over just 45 1/3 innings and ended his D-backs career in poor fashion last season.
Sherfy threw a career-high 18 1/3 MLB frames in 2019, but opposing offenses pulverized him for 12 earned runs on 23 hits, including six homers. The 28-year-old did notch a 3.60 ERA with 12.6 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 35 Triple-A frames, though he dealt with an upper body injury along the way. Arizona then outrighted him during the winter.
NL West Notes: Oberg, Rockies, Bumgarner, Cueto
Rockies reliever Scott Oberg is on the 45-day injured list due to blood clots in his throwing arm, marking the third time blood clots have interrupted Oberg’s career. It remains to be seen if Oberg will be able to return during the 2020 season, though the right-hander told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that he fully intends to keep pitching. “If this is what it’s going to have to be, it’s just another hurdle to overcome. I’ve dealt with the adversity road plenty of times,” Oberg said. After already undergoing three different procedures in the past, it isn’t yet certain if a fourth surgery will be required; Oberg has consulted with doctors and specialists about his latest issue, with more consultations planned for the coming week.
More from around the NL West…
- With Oberg and the struggling Wade Davis both on the IL, the Rockies‘ search for a closer is still ongoing. It seemed as if Jairo Diaz was laying claim to the job, though after a rough outing (three walks, one hit, and two unearned runs in two-thirds of an inning) today, manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post and other media that the club has no “designated closer.” It seems likely that Diaz will still get some save chances as part of the Rockies’ closing committee, though Yency Almonte, Carlos Estevez, Daniel Bard, and possibly others could all figure into the ninth inning depending on the situation.
- Madison Bumgarner will throw a 50-pitch simulated game on Monday, a week after the southpaw was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a back strain. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that the simulated game “is a way for us to see how he looks, see how he feels and have him evaluate how his body feels and give us that information and determine what the next step is moving forward.” Piecoro notes that Bumgarner is still expected to miss at least one more start while on the IL, though the left-hander might not miss much beyond the 10-day minimum if he reports a clean bill after the sim game.
- Could Johnny Cueto be turning himself into a trade candidate? With the Giants in last place and looking like deadline sellers, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Cueto could get some attention from teams looking for veteran pitching. Cueto has a 4.62 ERA, 1.73 K/BB rate, and 6.8 K/9 through 25 1/3 innings this season, some fairly middling numbers that ERA indicators (4.72 FIP, 5.55 xFIP, 5.28 SIERA) hint could or should be worse. On the plus side, Statcast metrics show that Cueto is doing a good job of limiting hard contact, and Cueto is averaging 91 mph on his fastball, roughly the same average velocity he was posting in the couple of seasons prior to his August 2018 Tommy John surgery. The Giants would likely have to eat some money to accommodate a trade, given that Cueto is owed $21MM in 2021, there is a $5MM buyout of his $22MM club option for 2022, and he is also owed the prorated remainder of his original $21MM salary for the rest of this season.
D-backs Trade Ildemaro Vargas To Twins
The Twins announced that they have acquired switch-hitting utility infielder Ildemaro Vargas from the Diamondbacks for cash. Minnesota will make a 28-man roster move to accommodate Vargas’ activation at a later date. Arizona designated Vargas for assignment late last week.
Vargas, 29, has a strong Triple-A track record at the plate and plenty of versatility, given that he’s a switch-hitter with more than 1000 innings of experience at each of shortstop, second base and third base. Vargas has also seen time at all three outfield spots and first base, though only a few games’ worth of innings at each slot.
However, despite that versatility, Vargas’ production from Triple-A hasn’t really carried over to the Majors. He’s a career .326/.371/.464 hitter at the top minor league level but has mustered just a .257/.287/.357 slash in the Majors. He hasn’t received much of a look at the big league level with the D-backs, however, so perhaps the Twins feel that he can thrive with a bit more playing time. Then again, the Twins already have plenty of infield options themselves, so playing time could continue to be difficult to come by. Vargas is also out of minor league options, so the Twins can’t send him to their alternate training site in St. Paul unless they designate him for assignment themselves and Vargas subsequently goes unclaimed on waivers.