Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, Angels Among Teams To Meet With Shohei Ohtani
11:40pm: The Angels are indeed one of the finalists, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
10:39pm: The Angels are thought by “multiple sources” to be one of the finalists, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets. The Tigers are out of the running, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.
8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process. The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.
7:22pm: The Nationals won’t be receiving a meeting, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).
6:58pm: The Braves are out, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter).
6:50pm: The Padres will receive a meeting with Ohtani, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). The Dodgers are also thought to still be active in the Ohtani sweepstakes though Heyman doesn’t have confirmation; regardless, the Dodgers aren’t thought to be favorites to land Ohtani.
6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).
6:15pm: The Diamondbacks won’t receive a meeting, Ken Rosenthal tweets.
6:12pm: The Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers are all out, as respectively reported by Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (all Twitter links).
5:48pm: The Mets are also out, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
5:38pm: Ohtani’s list is “heavy” on West Coast teams, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, though the Cubs may still be involved. Not every west-based team is included, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the A’s aren’t involved.
5:28pm: The Red Sox are also out of the running, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The Twins also won’t be getting a meeting with Ohtani, Heyman tweets.
5:16pm: The Giants and Mariners are among the teams that will receive meetings with Shohei Ohtani and his representatives next week, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). It isn’t known who the other finalists are in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though the Yankees are one of the teams that didn’t make the cut, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).
According to Cashman, Ohtani seems to be leaning towards West Coast teams in smaller markets. This ties to a report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman saying that Ohtani’s reps are informing teams that the two-way star would prefer to play in a smaller market.
The news adds another fascinating layer to the Ohtani sweepstakes, which was already one of the more intriguing free agent pursuits in recent memory. Given the seeming lack of immediate financial motive that inspired Ohtani’s move to Major League Baseball, it opened the door for every team in baseball (regardless of market or payroll size) to make a push for the 23-year-old. There had been speculation that Ohtani might look to avoid playing in a larger market, so this apparent confirmation creates a realistic possibility that he will land with a team that wouldn’t normally be considered a favorite to land such a coveted free agent.
Of course, San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market, though Ohtani wouldn’t necessarily be the center of attention on a club with such established stars as Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton in the near future). Playing for an NL team, however, would force Ohtani into a pinch-hitting or even a part-time outfield role for the at-bats he seeks in his attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues. The Mariners do have such a DH spot available (in a timeshare with Nelson Cruz), and were considered to be a contender for Ohtani given their long history of Japanese players.
The Yankees also have had several significant Japanese players on their past and current rosters, and were widely seen as one of the major favorites for Ohtani’s services from a financial (in terms of available international bonus money) and positional (openings at DH and in the rotation) standpoint, not to mention their international fame and their young core of talent ready to make a World Series push. With Ohtani now out of the picture, the Yankees could move to signing more pitching depth — a reunion with C.C. Sabathia has been widely speculated as a possibility — or a veteran bat to serve as designated hitter, if the club doesn’t just rotate its DH days to find plate appearances for everyone on the current roster.
Taijuan Walker Switches Agencies
Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker has changed agencies and is now a client of Excel Sports Management, Robert Murray of FanRag reports (on Twitter).
Still just 25, Walker debuted in the majors in 2011 as a highly touted prospect with the Mariners, who used a first-round pick on him the previous year. Walker didn’t quite live up to expectations during his time in Seattle, which dealt him to Arizona a year ago in a blockbuster that also featured Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Ketel Marte.
In his first season in Arizona, Walker rode a highly effective fastball to a 3.49 ERA over 157 1/3 innings, thereby aiding in the playoff-bound Diamondbacks’ unexpected resurgence. Walker also notched 8.35 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9 and recorded a 48.9 percent groundball rate, which helped him tamp down home runs. After giving up homers on 17.6 percent of fly balls in his Seattle swan song, he cut the number to a much more palatable 11.3 in 2017.
Walker’s output last season was worth $20MM, according to FanGraphs, making his $2.25MM salary a serious bargain. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Walker to earn more than double last year’s amount ($5MM) in 2018, his second of four potential arbitration-eligible seasons.
2017 Non-Tenders
The deadline to tender 2018 contracts to players is tonight at 8pm EST. We’ll keep track of the day’s non-tenders in this post (all referenced arbitration projections courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) …
- The Giants non-tendered righty Albert Suarez, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. Suarez, 28, was not yet eligible for arbitration.
- Righty Tom Koehler and infielder Ryan Goins are heading to the open market after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays, per a team announcement.
- The Rays announced that lefty Xavier Cedeno has been non-tendered, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cubs non-tendered catcher Taylor Davis, per a team announcement. He was not yet eligible for arbitration.
- Four Rangers players have not been tendered contracts, per a club announcement. Righties Chi Chi Gonzalez, A.J. Griffin, and Nick Martinez have been cut loose along with infielder Hanser Alberto. Griffin ($3.0MM projection) and Martinez ($2.0MM) were both noted as non-tender candidates by MLBTR. The other two players were not yet eligible for arbitration. Gonzalez was a former first-round pick who had struggled of late and underwent Tommy John surgery in July.
- The Diamondbacks have also non-tendered lefty T.J. McFarland, who had projected at a $1.0MM salary.
- The Reds non-tendered lefty Kyle Crockett, a pre-arb lefty who was only recently claimed on waivers, per a club announcement.
- Per a club announcement, the Brewers have non-tendered veteran righty Jared Hughes. He will end up being the only 40-man player not to receive a contract from Milwaukee. Hughes had projected at a $2.2MM arbitration value. The 32-year-old is a master at inducing grounders and has turned in repeatedly excellent results. He also averaged a career-best 93.9 mph on his sinker in 2017.
- The Mariners have non-tendered lefty Drew Smyly and righty Shae Simmons, per a club announcement. While the former was expected, due to Smyly’s Tommy John surgery, the latter rates as something of a surprise given his cheap $700K projection. Of course, it’s possible the club is not optimistic of his chances of bouncing back from arm troubles.
- The White Sox will not tender a contract to reliever Jake Petricka, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). He had projected to take home $1.1MM in his second trip through the arb process. Also non-tendered, per a club announcement, were righties Zach Putnam and Al Alburquerque as well as infielder Alan Hanson.
- It seems that righty Bruce Rondon will wind up his tenure with the Tigers, as the organization is set to non-tender him, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press (via Twitter). Rondon was long viewed as a potential late-inning arm for the Tigers, but had some notable run-ins with the organization, struggled with control, and never consistently produced at the MLB level. Though he projected to earn just $1.2MM, Rondon will be allowed to find a new organization. He will turn 26 later this month.
- The Diamondbacks will non-tender righty J.J. Hoover, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Hoover projected at just $1.6MM, but Arizona is watching every penny as it seeks to return to the postseason with a tight payroll situation. The 30-year-old turned in 41 1/3 innings of 3.92 ERA ball in 2017 with 11.8 K/9 but also 5.7 BB/9 on the year.
- The Royals announced that they have non-tendered outfielder Terrance Gore. Though Gore was not eligible for arbitration, teams occasionally utilize today’s deadline to prune their 40-man rosters. Gore had quite an interesting run with Kansas City, scarcely playing at all during the regular season and then appearing as a speed-and-defense asset in the team’s two storied postseason runs. Now, though the fleet-footed 26-year-old is out of options. With an upper minors OPS that hovers just over .600, Gore just was not going to break camp with the club. It seems reasonable to think there’s a chance he’ll return to the organization on a minors deal, though Gore will also have a shot at exploring the broader market.
Diamondbacks Acquire Brad Boxberger
The D-backs announced today that they’ve acquired right-handed reliever Brad Boxberger from the Rays in exchange for minor league right-hander Curtis Taylor.
The trade of Boxberger to Arizona sheds one arbitration-eligible player for the Rays, who have a sizable arb class and many decisions to face as they look to trim payroll for the 2018 season. While Boxberger won’t be paid at an exorbitant rate — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.9MM salary in 2018 — Tampa Bay was facing arb decisions on 12 players, suggesting that further non-tenders or trades of second-tier players could be on the horizon for the Rays.
Boxberger, 30 in May, was an All-Star closer for the Rays back in 2015 when he saved 41 games and pitched to a 3.71 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate. Arizona’s ninth-inning situation is currently murky after 2017 closer Fernando Rodney hit free agency at season’s end, and while Boxberger could compete for a high-leverage spot depending on the D-backs’ other offseason moves, he won’t simply be handed the job. For one thing, Archie Bradley could well be the in-house favorite to fill that role at present. Furthermore, the bullpen looks like one area for the D-backs to address this offseason, though they’ll face payroll challenges in doing so.
Beyond that, Boxberger hasn’t been closing in Tampa Bay in recent seasons anyhow, as he’s been plagued by groin and oblique injuries as well as a flexor strain in 2017. When healthy, however, he was quite effective this past season, as evidenced by a 3.38 ERA, 12.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 29 1/3 frames. Boxberger has totaled just 53 1/3 innings over his past two injury-plagued seasons, though he’ll be a nice addition that the team can control through the 2019 season, via arbitration, if he can remain healthy next year. Boxberger adds to a massive D-backs arbitration class that now includes an astounding 15 players — though the Snakes have several non-tender/trade candidates in that mix themselves (e.g. Chris Herrmann, J.J. Hoover, T.J. McFarland).
[Related: Updated Diamondbacks Depth Chart & Rays Depth Chart]
As for the Rays, they’ll pick up a prospect that ranked 14th in a poorly regarded Diamondbacks farm system, per MLB.com. The 22-year-old Taylor (23 next July) spent the 2017 season with Class-A Kane County, where he pitched to a solid 3.32 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 43.6 percent ground-ball rate in 13 starts (62 1/3 innings).
Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com note in their scouting report that the 6’6″ fourth-rounder (2016) has the potential for two plus offerings thanks to a 94-95 mph sinker and an upper-80s slider. Callis and Mayo note that there’s a belief that Taylor could end up in the bullpen ultimately, and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen tweets the same. Per Longenhagen, Taylor has better control than most pitchers of his height and a potential plus slider, but his delivery is better suited for relief work.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Blue Jays, Bradley, Closers
Some items to conclude Thanksgiving Day…
- The Blue Jays are conducting an internal investigation after six minor league prospects all tested positive for PEDs within the last week, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports. Thirteen Jays prospects have now been hit with PED test-related violations within the last two years, a stunning increase for an organization that saw just 18 players fail tests from 2005-15. “This situation is very disappointing and disturbing to the organization; disappointing that the players made these choices, but more so disturbing that some failure of our environment allowed this to happen,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said. “It is our responsibility to create an environment and culture where our players know that PED use is not condoned, and to give them resources and education to ensure that they do not make these decisions.”
- Archie Bradley will be stretched out as a starter in Spring Training and could start in case of a rotation jury, though Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that the team is still planning to use Bradley as a reliever. Once one of the game’s top starting prospects, Bradley struggled over 34 career starts before posting dominating numbers (1.73 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.76 BB/K rate) in 73 relief innings last season. Bradley showed the capability of being a multi-inning force out of the pen, though Hazen also said the D’Backs could deploy Bradley as a closer next year. Bradley’s versatility gives the team flexibility in pursuing bullpen help this winter, Hazen said.
- Bradley is a good example of how ESPN.com’s Sam Miller notes that closers are still hard to identify, and it is consistently hard for teams to tell which closers can consistently produce on a year-to-year basis, or which pitchers may suddenly emerge from nowhere as ninth-inning options. Citing a similar Baseball Prospectus piece from Christina Kahrl in 2000 about the closer volatility, Miller notes that one big difference between now and then is that teams are increasingly willing to groom pitchers into relief roles earlier in their careers, or even as soon as they’re drafted, in order to develop bullpen specialists.
Players Added To The 40-Man Roster
As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…
- Heading onto the Blue Jays‘ roster, per a club announcement, are righty Connor Greene, lefty Tom Pannone, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and catchers Dan Jansen and Reese McGuire.
- The Rays have selected the contracts of righties Brent Honeywell, Diego Castillo, Yonny Chirinos, and Jose Mujica, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, and outfielder Justin Williams, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Diamondbacks placed lefty Jared Miller on the MLB roster, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
- A list of six players is heading onto the Reds‘ 40-man, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter): infielders Alex Blandino and Shed Long, outfielder Jose Siri, and righties Jose Lopez, Jesus Reyes, and Zack Weiss.
- The Padres and Brewers have joined the teams announcing their additions. For San Diego, lefties Jose Castillo and Brad Wieck are heading to the 40-man. Milwaukee has selected shortstop Mauricio Dubon, catcher Jacob Nottingham, and righties Marcos Diplan and Freddy Peralta.
- The Marlins and Yankees just struck a trade relating to their 40-man maneuvering, and each announced their selections shortly thereafter. Miami is placing outfielder Braxton Lee on the MLB roster along with righties Merandy Gonzalez, Pablo Lopez, and James Needy. New York, meanwhile, will select righties Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga to the 40-man along with outfielder Billy McKinney and infielders Thairo Estrada and (last but not least) Gleyber Torres.
Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …
NL West Notes: JDM, Chacin, Stammen, Hosmer, Diamondbacks
Scarcely a day goes by in which the Giants are not linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that San Francisco is also considering the other top right-handed slugger that is available this offseason: J.D. Martinez. It’s not clear if the Giants have sat down with agent Scott Boras, and Shea is careful to note that the Giants are internally discussing a wide number of options to improve their offense. Martinez would represent the most aggressive means of doing so on the free-agent market. He’ll command fewer years and dollars than the remaining decade and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, though Boras is reportedly seeking a sky-high $210MM over seven years early in the offseason. (Martinez will quite likely sign for less than that, as early asking prices are always on the high side for any free agent.)
Working against the Giants is a payroll that is already dangerously close to the luxury tax barrier and that Martinez doesn’t help the Giants’ stated goals of improving the outfield defense or getting better in center field.
More on the from the division…
- The Padres are interested in reunions with right-handers Jhoulys Chacin and Craig Stammen, general manager A.J. Preller told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings (link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). “From our standpoint, it’s about seeing how the next couple weeks play out,” said Preller. “They’re two guys we have interest in bringing back. We’ve got to see if we line up financially.” Cassavell reports that the Friars would consider a multi-year deal for either pitcher, though such a contract would likely need to come with a discounted second year. San Diego has a number of arms rising through the system and may not relish the idea of blocking those arms, though from my vantage point having either Chacin or Stammen around at an affordable rate is a good problem to have if all parties are performing well.
- In a separate pair of Padres columns, Cassavell characterizes their interest in Eric Hosmer as little more than due diligence, while Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears a bit differently and reports that their interest goes “beyond the cursory level.” Cassavell notes that the Padres have kicked the tires on roughly 50 free agents thus far (most of them pitchers) as they look to get a full picture of the free-agent market. Lin, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres may be intrigued both by Hosmer’s intangible leadership qualities and by his 25-homer output despite being an extreme ground-ball hitter. A willingness to amend that approach and put the ball in the air more often could yield untapped power; I’d imagine that the Padres, who call spacious Petco Park their home, are also intrigued by the pop that Hosmer showed in his own cavernous home park (Kauffman Stadium) in spite of an approach that isn’t traditionally conducive to power.
- The D-backs have added Jason Parks to their front office as their new director of pro scouting, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter). Parks, who many readers may remember from his excellent work at Baseball Prospectus, has been with the Cubs as a scout and a special assistant since 2014. He’ll join an increasingly youthful Arizona front office that is led by GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawadaye. Notably, Parks’ role as director of pro scouting will be the same one that Porter filled with the Cubs when he and Parks were colleagues in Chicago.
Heyman’s Latest: Moore, Cain, Rangers, Vargas/O’s, Rodney/D-Backs
In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks into the Royals front office. Owner David Glass is “considering a possible two-year extension” for GM Dayton Moore, writes Heyman, even though Moore has “no leverage” given that he’s already under contract for three more seasons. This all arises after Glass declined to allow the Braves to speak with Moore about changing squads. While Moore has expressed gratitude to ownership, his recent comments were interesting, if difficult to interpret with any precision. All told, it seems there could still be some unresolved matters in the Kansas City front office.
Let’s look at a few more items from Heyman of particular relevance to the still-developing hot stove season:
- Top free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain has drawn some early interest from the Mets and Giants, according to Heyman. As regards the New York organization, this information seems to conflict with recent statements from Mets GM Sandy Alderson — though as ever it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt and acknowledging fluidity this time of year. As for the Giants, we at MLBTR pegged San Francisco as the likeliest landing spot for Cain, though some doubt whether the organization will go over the luxury tax line and sacrifice draft choices to land him. At a minimum, though, the organization would seem to be wise to do some diligence on the possibility.
- The Rangers have “looked into” free agent righties Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, says Heyman. While it’s not clear just how serious the interest is, the link isn’t surprising. Texas clearly needs arms; indeed, MLBTR guessed they’d land Lynn. While Chatwood doesn’t have nearly the track record of results that Lynn does, he is an intriguing option in his own right and shares some of the characteristics of Andrew Cashner — the former Ranger free agent signee who is himself back on the open market.
- Another team with a desire to add several starters (and with reputed interest in Chatwood) is the Orioles. The Baltimore front office met with agents for lefty Jason Vargas during the GM Meetings, Heyman reports. The 34-year-old veteran seems to be a good match for the O’s, as we predicted, since the team needs to find so many rotation innings and can’t afford to make major long-term commitments to multiple starters.
- The Diamondbacks are “open” to bringing back Fernando Rodney, GM Mike Hazen tells Heyman. Arizona is facing a difficult payroll situation but obviously will be looking to maintain and improve upon a Wild Card-winning roster. Though Rodney didn’t dominate last year, he’s still throwing mid-nineties heat and generating quite a few swings and misses — and obviously met with the approval of the D-Backs’ brass in the closer’s role. Beyond improving the pen, the Arizona priority is to improve in the outfield, per the report. That could mean pursuing under-the-radar additions; though Hazen says he’s not ruling out a return for J.D. Martinez, that’d almost certainly require the kind of payroll increase that does not appear to be under consideration.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After surprising many by earning a wild card slot and advancing to the NLDS last season, the Diamondbacks will juggle a large arbitration class and several key free agent decisions while trying to return to the postseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Zack Greinke, SP: $126.5MM through 2021
- Yasmany Tomas, OF: $42.5MM through 2020 (final two seasons are player options)
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $11MM through 2018 (club option for $14.5MM in 2019, $2MM buyout)
- Jeff Mathis, C: $2MM through 2018
- Daniel Descalso, IF/OF: $2MM through 2018
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
- Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
- A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
- Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
- J.J. Hoover (4.153) – $1.6MM
- Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
- Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
- T.J. McFarland (3.165) – $1.0MM
- Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
- David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
- Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
- Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
- Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
- Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: McFarland, Herrmann, Hoover
Free Agents
- J.D. Martinez, Fernando Rodney, Chris Iannetta, Jorge De La Rosa, David Hernandez, Gregor Blanco, Adam Rosales
[Arizona Diamondbacks Offseason Page | Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information]
It only took one offseason for first-year GM Mike Hazen to get his team back on the winning track, though in fairness to the former Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart-led front office, the 2017 D’Backs were blessed with much better health and far more breakout performances than the unfortunate 2016 squad. Since the team is now perhaps a bit ahead of schedule in terms of returning to contention, however, Hazen now faces an interesting offseason of trying to fill various roster holes while still keeping the payroll in check.
The Diamondbacks project to owe just over $114MM to 19 players next year (the five guaranteed deals and the whopping 14-player arbitration class), and that number rises to the $120MM range if you factor in the key pre-arb players who will certainly be on next year’s team. While some money could be saved via non-tenders, the D’Backs still project to have the largest Opening Day payroll in the franchise history. There isn’t going to be much, if any, of a payroll increase, according to team president Derrick Hall, who also recently stated that the D’Backs will “have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”
With this in mind, it doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a reunion with J.D. Martinez, especially given Martinez’s reported asking price of a staggering $210MM. Team management hasn’t closed the door on the chances of Martinez returning, though even if he and agent Scott Boras settle for “only” the six years and $150MM projected by MLBTR, that will leave the D’Backs committing well over half their payroll to just two players: Martinez and Zack Greinke. And that doesn’t even factor in possible extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, as the star first baseman is only controlled through the 2019 season.
So, how could Hazen and company “get creative” in finding a way to bring Martinez back? The three cited non-tender candidates would account for $4MM, though more money could be saved in that department if Shelby Miller or Randall Delgado were also non-tendered. The D’Backs would have to be pessimistic about Miller’s recovery from Tommy John surgery or Delgado’s flexor strain to consider dumping either pitcher, though as Welington Castillo could tell you, Arizona isn’t shy about making surprising non-tender calls.
Other possibilities include shopping Patrick Corbin or A.J. Pollock, both of whom are free agents after the 2018 season. Pollock missed virtually all of 2016 due to a fractured elbow and was limited to only 112 games in 2017 due to groin and quad injuries, though he was still an above-average run creator and center field defender last season. Several teams looking for center field help would have interest in Pollock if he was made available, though given the superstar ceiling he exhibited in 2015, Arizona probably sees a healthy Pollock as a way to help fill the offensive hole left behind if Martinez departs.
After a bullpen demotion in 2016, Corbin re-established himself as a starter with a solid 3.0 fWAR season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 189 2/3 innings. He’d be a good trade chip to teams looking to add pitching, and the Diamondbacks can potentially afford to part with Corbin given how the rest of their rotation emerged as a strength last year. Even without Corbin, the Snakes would still have a nice core of Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley, with Miller scheduled for a midseason return and prospects Anthony Banda and Taylor Clarke knocking on the door to battle for the fifth starter’s job. A low-cost veteran could also be brought in if the D’Backs prefer Banda and Clarke as Triple-A depth to start the year.
Of course, the boldest move would be to trade Greinke, who just turned 34 in October and is still owed $138.5MM over the next four years. Greinke rebounded from a disappointing 2016 to display his usual excellent form last season. While the D’Backs are certainly more comfortable paying Greinke that much if he pitches like an ace, the fact that he accounts for such a significant portion of the payroll means that the team has to at least keep an eye out for trade possibilities. (Greinke has some control over his destiny in the form of a 15-team no-trade clause.) The D’Backs were reportedly trying to unload all of Greinke’s contract during trade talks in the summer of 2016; this still seems like a long shot now, though Greinke’s strong year will aid in getting more of his salary off Arizona’s books.
Losing Greinke rather than Corbin is obviously a much bigger blow to the rotation, though if a Greinke trade did become a reality, the D’Backs could still shop for more pitching. Consider that MLBTR projects Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to find free agent deals this winter that combined won’t match what Greinke will earn over the next four seasons. Dealing Greinke and then signing Lynn or Cobb would be a downgrade at the front of the rotation but a major dose of payroll relief.
(Obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention: the D’Backs will certainly join every other team in baseball in trying to gain the attention of the Japanese superstar if and when the bidding begins on Ohtani’s services. It’s probably safe to categorize the Diamondbacks as a less-likely candidate to sign Ohtani, though they have been in the mix for high-profile Japanese players in the past.)
Turning to the relief side of the pitching equation, Arizona has some holes to fill with closer Fernando Rodney, Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez all hitting free agency. None of this trio would be particularly expensive to re-sign if the D’Backs simply wanted to get the band back together, though some upgrading will be necessary depending on what happens with the likes of Hoover or McFarland in arbitration. Archie Bradley could potentially take over the closer’s job from the somewhat shaky Rodney, though the team may feel he is more valuable as a multi-inning pitcher who can be deployed at any point in a game. Given their other needs and lack of payroll flexibility, expect the D’Backs to again target low-cost relief signings in the hopes of succeeding as they did with Rodney, De La Rosa, and Hoover last offseason.
Speaking of winning signings, Chris Iannetta more than delivered on his one-year, $1.5MM deal from a winter ago, as he hit .254/.354/.511 with 17 homers over 316 plate appearances. Arizona could try to re-sign Iannetta, or perhaps look to take advantage of what could be a somewhat quiet free agent catching market. The Rockies are the only contender with a clear need behind the plate, with the Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox all speculative candidates to look for catching help. With Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, and Castillo as the big names on the market, a relative lack of suitors could bring one of these catchers into the Diamondbacks’ price range, or at least allow Iannetta to be re-signed on another relatively inexpensive deal. Castillo probably isn’t a candidate given that the D’Backs just parted ways with him last offseason, though Lucroy or Avila could add more pop from the catcher position if the Snakes don’t feel Iannetta can replicate his 2017 numbers.
Looking elsewhere around the diamond, the D’Backs are set at first base (Goldschmidt), third base (Jake Lamb), center field (Pollock), and right field (David Peralta). Yasmany Tomas is still penciled in as the left fielder, though he was plagued by injuries in 2017 and he has yet to show much consistency at the plate over his three-year MLB career. Socrates Brito looks like an interesting fourth outfielder candidate who could earn more playing time as Tomas’ late-game defensive replacement or even platoon partner. A Pollock trade would obviously shake things up considerably in the outfield; depending on the return in that deal, the D’Backs would then be in the market for center field help, perhaps a veteran like Cameron Maybin or Jarrod Dyson.
The D’Backs are also more than set in the middle infield in terms of sheer numbers, though they’ll be hoping for more production at the plate. Ketel Marte and Brandon Drury are the respective favorites at shortstop and second base, with Nick Ahmed also in the mix at short and Chris Owings available at both positions in his multi-position utility role. Veteran Daniel Descalso, whose 2018 option has already been exercised by the D’Backs, will also be back in a utilityman role.
This surplus of infielders capable of playing multiple positions makes the D’Backs a good trade partner for teams looking for infield help, such as the Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Giants. No trade is likely to approach the scope of the Jean Segura deal from a year ago unless an infielder is included as part of a larger trade package, though the Snakes can certainly address at least one need depending on which infielder is traded. Drury and Owings have the most trade value but are also the two the D’Backs would probably most like to keep, particularly since Lamb still needs to be spelled against left-handed pitching.
This is just my speculation, but Lamb could also be a trade chip if Arizona is looking for players that could bring back a decent return. The 27-year-old has delivered a lot of pop over the last two seasons, though he also has some significant flaws — an inability to hit southpaws, below-average third base defense, and a tendency to fade after the All-Star break. Lamb is arb-eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2020, so while the Snakes would miss his power, they could deal Lamb to address another need and then look for a third base alternative (or move Drury to the hot corner). Speculating further, the D’Backs could also try packaging Lamb and Tomas as a way of getting at least some of Tomas’ contract off the books.
Hazen decided against cleaning house in his first offseason as Arizona’s GM, and his relatively quiet winter was rewarded by a postseason trip. A busier offseason seems to be on the horizon now, however, as while Hazen is still looking to better position the team for the future, there is more pressure to win in the aftermath of 2017’s good results.
J.D. Martinez Reportedly Seeking $210MM Deal
Nov. 14: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Boras and Martinez have set an early asking price of $210MM over the life of a seven-year term.
Nov. 8: Teams that have spoken to agent Scott Boras about new client J.D. Martinez have come away with the impression that Boras and Martinez are seeking a deal in the vicinity of $200MM in total guarantees, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Martinez hired Boras as his new representative just days before the free-agent period began.
It’s a jarring number to see associated with the 30-year-old Martinez, though he certainly helped his case with an otherworldly season at the plate. Though Martinez missed the first five-plus weeks of the season due to a ligament injury in his foot, he nonetheless swatted 45 home runs in a career year at the plate. On the whole, Martinez slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with a career-high 10.8 percent walk rate through 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and D-backs.
In addition to his newfound plate discipline, Martinez’s 49 percent hard-contact rate was the best in the Majors of any player with at least 450 plate appearances. That stat may even undersell the extent to which he impressed in that regard; the next-highest percentage was Joey Gallo‘s mark of 46.4 percent. Statcast data pegged Martinez’s average exit velocity of 90.8 mph 15th among players that put at least 100 balls in play this past season, and he ranked third in the league in barrel percentage and tied for fourth in total number of barreled balls despite the early-season layoff.
There’s little point in doubting Martinez’s status as an elite bat after his impressive four-year run between Detroit and Arizona, but he still comes with plenty of red flags. Martinez has tallied 1973 innings in right field over the past two seasons and turned in an awful mark of -27 Defensive Runs Saved (though 2017’s mark of -5 was a noted improvement over 2016’s ghastly -22). Ultimate Zone Rating is similarly down on his glovework, rating him 25 runs below average. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metricT suggested that Martinez converted five fewer outs than an average defensive outfielder would have in 2017. That he’s missed 85 games over the past two years due to injury and will turn 31 next August both figure to limit his earning capacity to some degree as well.
We ranked Martinez as the No. 2 free agent on the market this winter and pegged him for a six-year, $150MM deal. If Boras’ aim is to secure a $200MM payday for his newest client, though, he’ll need to broker a deal of at least seven years in length — if not eight. While that’s difficult to envision, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landed seven year contracts in their recent trips through free agency, with Choo’s contract beginning in his age-31 campaign. A seven-year contract for Martinez is not outside the realm of possibility, though it also goes without saying that any agent would aim high entering free agency. While Martinez should have no shortage of teams with interest, there are very few clubs that can realistically afford to pay him at that level.
Boras spoke to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic about Martinez’s free-agent case and specifically referenced the free agencies of Ellsbury and Choo — both his clients — as well as fellow Boras clients Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth and Carlos Beltran. Boras indicated that he feels Martinez, who hit 40+ homers this season and has established himself as a .300 hitter, is a cut above that group (and above more recent cases like Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton) while entering free agency at a similar age. “It’s a very rare place. It’s a unique place,” said Boras. “…all of these guys that are at this level, they’re really good players. None of them were in the 45 [homer] and .300 [average] category.”
Asked whether he felt the Diamondbacks could be a realistic landing spot in free agency, Boras unsurprisingly suggested that he firmly believes that to be the case.
“You don’t sign Greinke and not sign this guy,” said Boras in a reference to Zack Greinke‘s six-year, $206.5MM contract with the D-backs. “I mean, once you drop in the pool, you’re in the water. Once you’re in the water, it’s kind of hard to say you’re not wet.” Boras called D-backs owner Ken Kendrick a “competitive owner” and suggested that the onus will fall on Kendrick to increase payroll or find a way to fit the slugger onto the team’s books moving forward. Piecoro’s column is full of quotes from the polarizing Boras and is well worth a full read.