Free Agent Stock Watch: Takashi Saito
Reliever Takashi Saito told reporters today he's uncertain about his future, but still believes he can pitch, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Free agent stock watch time!
The Pros
- Back in the National League, Saito's numbers this year were reminiscent of his Dodgers days: 2.83 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and four home runs allowed in 54 innings. Unlike last year with the Red Sox, Saito was particularly tough on right-handed hitters.
- Saito is likely to sign a one-year deal.
- He could handle a closing job, and that strict usage would effectively limit his workload.
The Cons
- Saito turns 41 in February. Back in 2008 he became the first pitcher known to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection into his elbow, which allowed for a quick recovery from a torn ulnar collateral ligament. With the Braves this year he dealt with hamstring and shoulder ailments. At this point in his career Saito cannot be counted on for 50 innings. I'm no doctor, but you'd have to worry about that ligament fully tearing.
- 2009 may have been a fluke, but Saito's periperhals suffered in the American League.
The Verdict
Saito signed with the Braves for a $3.2MM base salary and another $2.3MM in incentives. If his shoulder and elbow check out, there's no reason he should sign for less this time around. In fact, he'd have a case for a raise. He'll be appealing to most teams looking for a tough late-game reliever, but clubs will attempt to keep the base salary low and sign him to an incentive-laden deal given his age and recent injury history.
Odds & Ends: Nakajima, Butler, Managers
On this date six years ago, the Dodgers released a 20-year-old righty named Joakim Soria, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Soria was later signed by the Padres out of the Mexican League and then snagged by the Royals in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. He's now one of the game's best closers. On to today's links…
- The Astros signed Dominican righty Luis Abad for a low six figures bonus, tweets SI's Melissa Segura. Back in May, Blake Bentley ranked the new Dominican prospects for MLBTR, placing Abad in a tenth-place tie and calling him "one of the most projectable pitchers you'll see."
- I took a look at Neil Walker's fantasy baseball prospects for 2011 over at RotoAuthority.
- The Mariners are interested in Japanese middle infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima, says U.S.S. Mariner's Dave Cameron. Nakajima may be posted by the Seibu Lions and could be a bargain this winter. Patrick Newman of FanGraphs has more on Nakajima.
- Royals first baseman Billy Butler changed agents, going from Doug Rogalski to Greg Genske of Legacy Sports, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Rogalski has to feel burned, as Butler is heading to arbitration for the first time this winter.
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts interviewed Eric Wedge for the team's managerial opening yesterday, reports ESPN's Bruce Levine. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times reports that the Mariners interviewed Bobby Valentine yesterday and have Lloyd McClendon on the docket this week.
- Billy Wagner talked to MLB.com's Mark Bowman about his retirement.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Ankiel
The Royals signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25MM deal in January. I liked the contract, thinking the Royals could extract some value out of him at the trade deadline. GM Dayton Moore succeeded on that front, pairing Ankiel with Kyle Farnsworth and cash to acquire Jesse Chavez, Gregor Blanco, and Tim Collins from the Braves. Ankiel has a $6MM mutual option for 2011. The Braves are likely to choose the $500K buyout, making Ankiel a free agent. Let's examine his situation.
The Pros
- Ankiel's power returned in his 101 plate appearance stint with Kansas City. He slugged .467 with 11 extra-base hits.
- He hit a respectable .256/.339/.462 in 177 plate appearances against righties this year.
- The sample was small, but Ankiel's 10.8% walk rate this year was a career best.
- He's capable of playing all three outfield positions.
- Ankiel is likely to sign another one-year deal at a lower base salary.
The Cons
- Ankiel was terrible with the Braves and has never been good at getting on base.
- Ankiel fares poorly against lefties.
- He can't stay healthy. This year a quad strain limited him to 74 games.
- Ankiel is not much of a defensive center fielder, based on UZR.
- He's represented by Scott Boras, so his price could be inflated despite the poor season.
The Verdict
When healthy, Ankiel provides some pop against righties. It'd be difficult to guarantee him more than a million bucks, and you could argue that the deals signed by Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Corey Patterson are the best comparables. Ankiel will have to earn his playing time in 2011.
Chipper Jones Plans To Return Next Season
Nearly eight weeks after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his left knee, third baseman Chipper Jones told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com that his recovery is going well. While the veteran's knee won't heal in time for him to play in the National League Championship Series or the World Series, Jones sounds confident that he'll make it back at some point in 2011.
"I don't want the last memory of me to be laying out behind third base. On top of that, I was playing really well and I was swinging the bat really well. I was healthy and I was running the bases good. My frame of mind was really focused. I just want to keep going," said the 38-year-old.
Jones has two years remaining on his deal and is guaranteed to make $13MM for each of those seasons. The Braves hold a $7MM club option for 2013 but that option will automatically vest if the veteran plays in 123 games in 2012 or averages 127 games over the next two years. The six-time All-Star played in 143 games in 2009 but appeared in just 95 this past season.
Manager & Coaching Rumors: Heyman’s Picks, Nats, Mets
Not a lot of player news happening right now in the midst of the playoffs, but there's plenty of speculation going on about the guys who call the shots. We already heard about Ron Gardenhire's inevitable extension today, but let's take a look at some more links from the baseball universe:
- In these two tweets, Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman makes his picks for some open managerial positions: Eric Wedge in Pittsburgh, Bob Melvin in Milwaukee, Bobby Valentine in Seattle, Mike Quade in Chicago, and Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta.
- We heard earlier this year that Jim Riggleman will manage the Nationals again next season. MLB.com's Bill Ladson tells us that the Nats' entire coaching staff will be returning for the 2011 season as well. The Nationals recorded 10 more wins in 2010 than in 2009 under the current regime.
- Adam Rubin from ESPN New York gives us some insight into the Mets' managerial situation; potential general manager Sandy Alderson has believed it's misusing your resources to hire an expensive manager, while Mets owner Fred Wilpon would prefer a manager with previous ties to the Mets.
Cafardo’s Latest: Matsuzaka, Managers, Konerko
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spoke to nearly a dozen scouts and executives and found that there would be substantial interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka if the Red Sox made the righthander available in a trade this offseason. Most of those polled believe Boston would have to kick in some money to offset the two-years and $20MM left on his deal, but it's unclear what they would want in return. As Cafardo reminds us, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, so the Sox could simply hold onto him.
As far as teams that could have potential interest in Dice-K, Cafardo names the Mariners, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers. Here are the rest of his rumors…
- There's talk that the Red Sox might go after Yu Darvish if he's posted this winter, and there is a little bit of a New England connection there: Darvish's father attended school in the area.
- Doug Melvin said he will go outside the organization to replace departed manager Ken Macha, which rules out Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph.
- Jim Hendry and Cubs ownership likes what interim manager Mike Quade got out of his players down the stretch, so the sentiment to retain him is growing.
- Fredi Gonzalez turned down a chance to interview with the Cubbies, and it's looking more and more likely that he will take over for the retiring Bobby Cox in Atlanta.
- Alex Anthopoulos is looking at third base/bench coaches for his next manager, while Neal Huntington might dip into his Indians' roots to fill the Pirates' managerial vacancy.
- Paul Konerko indicated that contract length won't be much of a factor when he hits free agency this winter because he isn't sure how much longer he wants to play. Kenny Williams indicated that there might not be enough room in the budget for the White Sox to bring back their captain, especially if they seeks out a lefty bat as expected.
- Jason Varitek wants to return to the Red Sox but the team is thinking bigger picture with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on board. Cafardo suggests the Marlins as a potential landing spot for Varitek, where he would work with the team's young pitchers.
- Meanwhile, the Sox could sign John Buck as a stopgap while they wait for Salty to establish himself.
- Teams in need of a second baseman are very interested in Jed Lowrie, though at least one scout thinks he can stick at shortstop. The 26-year-old hit .287/.381/.526 in 197 plate appearances this year.
- Despite a strong finish (1.41 ERA in his last ten starts), the Cubs would still like to move Carlos Zambrano. Of course, they're going to have to eat some of the $55MM left of his contract to do so.
- Cafardo thinks that Carl Pavano could command a three-year deal worth $30MM as a free agent this winter, but he'd have to give a bit of a discount to return to Minnesota. The Twins have shown a willingness to spend in the last year, so this will be an interesting negotiation for them.
Odds & Ends: Blake, Kemp, Hendrickson, Matias, Hill
If there were any doubts about how much trade deadline acquisitions can affect the postseason, last night's Giants/Braves contest silenced them. A pair of former Royals, Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth, helped lead Atlanta to victory, while ex-Red Sox Ramon Ramirez gave up Ankiel's game-winning blast. As we prepare for another round of playoff baseball tonight, let's check out a few links….
- Casey Blake hit just .248/.320/.407 this season, but MLB.com's Sarah Morris thinks Ned Colletti has more pressing needs than finding a new third baseman.
- Meanwhile, Steve Dilbeck of The Los Angeles Times says that today's Matt Kemp-Nationals rumor won't be the last time the centerfielder's name comes up on the rumor circuit this winter.
- The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec expects the Orioles to buy out Mark Hendrickson's $1.2MM option for $200K. Hendrickson could return to the team at a lower price, according to Zrebiec.
- Carlos Matias (now known as Carlos Martinez) has received Visa approval and completed his $1.5MM deal with the Cardinals, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes (Twitter link). The Dominican right-hander agreed to terms with St. Louis in June, and has been outstanding in the Dominican Summer League (0.76 ERA, 11.9 K/9).
- The Red Sox have outrighted Rich Hill to the minors, reports Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The lefty will become a free agent five days after the World Series.
- In his latest appearance on WEEI, Peter Gammons discussed Cliff Lee, Boston's bullpen, and how the purchase of Liverpool FC affects the Red Sox.
- As David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Billy Wagner's strained oblique will keep him out of the NLDS and, if the Braves advance, the NLCS. With the left-hander still planning to retire, Wagner may have made his final big league appearance last night.
Multiple Teams Preparing Push For Rasmus
Despite John Mozeliak's insistence that Colby Rasmus will not be traded, multiple teams could make a push for the outfielder this winter, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. In a chat with fans, Strauss indicated that the Braves, Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks are among the teams interested in prying Rasmus away from the Cardinals.
A report earlier this season suggested that a rift between Rasmus and manager Tony La Russa led to the 24-year-old requesting a trade. With La Russa mulling a return to St. Louis for 2011, rival teams are presumably hoping the Cardinals will reconsider their stance on keeping Rasmus. Even if they don't intend to move their former first-round pick, the Cards "will have ample opportunity to turn down trade offers on Rasmus in upcoming weeks and months," according to Strauss.
A month ago, when MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at possible trade partners for the Cardinals and Rasmus, his list included the Braves and Jays, among other clubs.
Odds & Ends: Darvish, Feliciano, D’Backs, Blue Jays
As the Padres face a big uphill battle in San Francisco this weekend, we look at some news items….
- Yu Darvish's likely posting fee could be around $25MM and the right-hander might look for a five-year deal from an MLB club, suggest sources of Matt Cerrone of Metsblog.com. The Mets, Yankees, Rangers and Braves are listed as four of the eight teams who have shown an interest in Darvish, and we know the Rays have watched him pitch as well.
- Pedro Feliciano's struggles against right-handed hitters will prevent the reliever from earning a big contract this winter, writes David Brown of Yahoo Sports. The fact that Feliciano is a Type A free agent will also hurt his cause, since teams will shy away from losing a draft pick to sign a limited relief pitcher.
- Rafael Soriano, Cody Ross, David DeJesus and Francisco Rodriguez are among several free agents or trade candidates that Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the D'Backs might consider acquiring.
- Bob Gebhard, the Diamondbacks' vice-president and special assistant to the GM, will survive the expected front office changes in Arizona this winter, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Nightengale also tweets that Tim Wallach is "picking up plenty of steam" in regards to the Toronto manager's job. The Rockies have granted hitting coach Don Baylor permission to interview for that same position, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
- The Everett Daily Herald's Kirby Arnold lists several Mariners who might not be with the team next season, including Jose Lopez, David Aardsma and Casey Kotchman.
- Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Baseball America's Jim Callis that he hasn't been fired by L.A., and is "working for the team until…told otherwise" (both Twitter links). Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweeted about "rumors starting to swirl" that White and the Dodgers were parting ways earlier in the day. White was one of several candidates interviewed for the Arizona general manager's job that eventually went to Kevin Towers.
- The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore lists five possible replacements for Adam Dunn if the Nationals don't re-sign the slugger.
- In a chat with fans on Thursday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News predicted that the Rangers would announce contract extensions for manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels within a week of Texas' final playoff game.
- Trevor Hoffman hasn't decided if he will play next year yet, but if he does, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy predicts Hoffman will look for "a situation in which he at least has a chance to be the closer."
Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are next in our arbitration-eligibles series.
- First time: Jair Jurrjens, Eric O'Flaherty, Martin Prado
- Second time: Peter Moylan
- Third time: Melky Cabrera, Scott Proctor
- Fourth time: Matt Diaz
A hamstring injury cut into Jurrjens' season, and that gets part of the blame for his worst season. The Scott Boras client still heads to arbitration with 37 wins and a 3.52 ERA, putting Jered Weaver's $4.265MM reward in sight at the least. Prado is coming off his best year and owns a .307 career average, so he'll top a million bucks. Relievers O'Flaherty and Moylan also figure to be tendered contracts.
Outfielders Cabrera and Diaz were unexpectedly bad this year. The Braves could save $6MM by non-tendering both, and that money could go toward a new left fielder. Proctor spent most of his season at Triple A after May 2009 Tommy John surgery; he didn't fare well and will probably be cut.