Olney On Potential Non-Tenders And Bradley
In today's blog post at ESPN.com, Buster Olney indicates that there is belief among general managers that the "financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave." He mentions underperforming, but well paid players like Garrett Atkins and Kelly Johnson are prime non-tender bait, especially since their clubs have replacements ready and it's unlikely they'll be able to trade them. Make sure you check out MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates.
Olney also talks about some bad contracts the Cubs could acquire in exchange for Milton Bradley, adding that this morning's Vernon Wells rumor "would be a stunner" if it happened. Some of the players he mentions as possible fits include Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr. (who said he wants out of Anaheim), Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis, among others. Any other ideas?
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Braves. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Brian McCann – $5.5MM
C – Dave Ross – $1.6MM
1B –
2B – Martin Prado – $415K
SS – Yunel Escobar – $425K
3B – Chipper Jones – $13MM
IF – Kelly Johnson – $2.825MM+
IF – Diory Hernandez – $400K
IF/OF – Omar Infante – $2.225MM
LF – Matt Diaz – $1.2375MM+
CF – Nate McLouth – $4.5MM
RF – Ryan Church – $2.8MM+
OF – Jordan Schafer – $400K
SP – Javier Vazquez – $11.5MM
SP – Jair Jurrjens – $450K
SP – Tommy Hanson – $400K
SP – Tim Hudson – $9MM (est.)
SP – Derek Lowe – $15MM
RP – Peter Moylan – $410K+
RP – Kenshin Kawakami – $6.667MM
RP – Kris Medlen – $400K
RP – Eric O'Flaherty – $400K
RP – Boone Logan – $428K+
RP – Manny Acosta – $413K
RP – James Parr – $400K
The Braves have about $81MM committed before arbitration raises to Johnson, Diaz, Church, Moylan, and Logan. Johnson and Logan are potential trade/non-tender candidates. Regardless, the Braves should fall under $90MM (and that includes an estimated $9MM for Hudson). According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Braves began 2009 with a $96.7MM payroll. Ultimately I can see Braves GM Frank Wren having close to $15MM to spend without raising payroll.
First base and left field are two positions Wren must address this winter. The Braves intend to add a right-handed power bat; we ran through options here. At the time, I didn't realize Jason Bay and Matt Holliday might be considerations. The plan for first base might be to re-sign Adam LaRoche, though there are respectable free agent alternatives.
Wren will probably sign a reliever, as closers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are up for free agency. Both project as Type A free agents; will the Braves offer arbitration? If either player accepts, the Braves can offer any salary they want and have that figure pitted against the submission from the player's agent. Still, Soriano earning $6.1MM this year against $3.45MM for Gonzalez might lead to an arbitration offer only for the latter. The argument against Moylan closing is that lefties handle him well. Pairing him with O'Flaherty in the ninth has potential if the Braves want to save money in the bullpen. And don't forget that Medlen had 53 strikeouts in 49.3 relief innings this year.
So the Braves have needs at first base, left field, and possibly the bullpen. Considering the inflated price of free agent power hitters, how can Wren fill all these holes on a $12-15MM budget? The Braves' pitching surplus could be the answer. Kawakami's contract isn't unreasonable. Lowe's is, given his declining peripherals. Lowe is still useful, though, so the Braves could still trade him and shed 2010 payroll even if they can't find a taker for all $15MM.
My suggestion: retain the starting pitching depth. In all likelihood Kawakami will still be needed for 20+ starts next year. The Braves could instead bump payroll to $100MM, dump Johnson and Logan, go cheap on the bullpen, perhaps backload Hudson's deal, and spend $9-10MM each for the first base and left field spots. Perhaps Johnson could even be used to acquire a decent late-inning reliever.
Odds & Ends: Nationals, Braves, Blue Jays
Some late-afternoon snacks for you…
- The incomparable Thomas Boswell answers questions on a variety of subjects, including his belief that Jim Riggleman will return as manager of the Nationals next year. As Boswell puts it, "Has any manager in history ever not been retained after he improved a team's winning percentage by .125 and ended the season 7-0? Especially when the team likes him and he's born-raised in that town? I doubt it very much."
- Rob Neyer discusses Atlanta's options, now that it appears they will bring Tim Hudson back.
- And former Brave Mike Mordecai will be Toronto's roving minor league instructor, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
Odds & Ends: Kikuchi, Astros, Smoltz, Hermida
Some links to read for Thursday morning…
- The AP reports (via the Miami Herald) that the Seibu Lions won the rights to negotiate with top Japanese amateur Yusei Kikuchi.
- Another top young pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, hit 100 mph repeatedly in his third AFL start, according to ESPN.com's Jason Grey.
- Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle says fans and media members need to hold Astros owner Drayton McLane accountable, and says it wasn't GM Ed Wade's fault that managerial candidate Manny Acta signed with the Indians.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Cardinals still have interest in bringing John Smoltz back next year, perhaps as the team's fourth starter. The club seems likely to find a fifth starter within the organization.
- The Pirates and Reds will swap A ball affiliates next year, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer offered contracts to all of the organization's scouts and player development personnel, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
- R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs expects Tim Hudson to be worth the extension he's expected to sign.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro lists the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays and Mets as possible destinations for Jeremy Hermida. The Marlins may trade the outfielder, who should hit free agency after 2011.
Hudson To Ink Three-Year Extension
9:14pm: David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution has also heard that the deal will be worth approximately $9MM per season, or around $27MM over three seasons.
6:39pm: Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes the new three-year deal "will likely be worth $24-27 million."
5:22pm: According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, veteran right-hander Tim Hudson is expected to sign a three-year extension with the Braves by the end of this week.
"It will be a shocker if something doesn't get finished in the next three or four days," said Rosenthal's major league source.
Hudson spent most of the 2009 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but went 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA and a 30/13 K/BB ratio in seven starts once he rejoined the Braves. The 34-year-old had a $12MM mutual option sitting on 2010, so the new deal is probably structured around that figure as an annual salary. He has 148 career wins and a 3.49 career ERA.
Rosenthal believes the Braves might decide to trade one of their other veteran arms — "most likely right-hander Javier Vazquez or right-hander Derek Lowe" — for a hitter.
Odds & Ends: DeRosa, Mateo, Mets, Cubs
A few links to click through before the Phillies and Yankees do battle in Game 1 of the World Series…
- According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Mark DeRosa underwent surgery Monday to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. He's a free agent this winter and is expected to be fine by the start of spring training.
- Wagner Mateo, a 16-year-old Dominican outfielder, won Bo Jackson's first annual Five-Tool Challenge over the weekend. It's an event open to 18-year-olds. Mateo's contract with the Cardinals was nullified a month ago after the organization discovered he had an eye problem, but he is expected to sign with the Giants soon.
- Marty Noble of MLB.com takes another round of Mets-related questions.
- Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald hopes the Cubs will steer clear of Gary Matthews Jr., who told reporters Tuesday that he wants out of Anaheim.
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution is high on Jair Jurrjens, who has been mentioned as a potential trade chip by commenters on his blog. "I can’t see how the Braves would seriously consider trading Jurrjens this winter," writes O'Brien. "And I don’t believe they have, or will, seriously consider it." The 23-year-old went 14-10 last season with a 2.60 ERA.
Braves Start Extension Talks With Hudson
The Braves have begun negotiating an extension with Tim Hudson and his agent, Paul Cohen, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman. Under Hudson's current deal, the Braves can buy the righty out for $1MM or agree to pick up a $12MM option that the pitcher can void. But Hudson would prefer an extension.
"Truthfully, I've never even thought that the option was an option," Hudson said.
Bowman says "it is believed" the Braves would be comfortable offering Hudson a three-year deal worth $27-29MM. Hudson had excellent seasons back-to-back in 2007 and 2008 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, a procedure which limited him to just seven starts last year.
Yesterday David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution guessed that the Braves would try to work out an extension with Hudson. If the sides do work out a deal, ESPN.com's Buster Olney expects the Braves to consider dealing Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe.
If the Braves extend Hudson, they'll have made long-term commitments to three starters 34 and older (Kawakami and Lowe are the others).
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Gonzalez, Thome, Hinske, Red Sox, D’Backs, Twins
On this date 64 years ago, the Dodgers announced the signing of Jackie Robinson, who would become the first African-American to play major league baseball since the 1880s. Robinson would spend the '46 season with Triple-A Montreal, hitting .349. The next season he would hit .297/.383/.427 and help the Dodgers to the National League pennant. With the Hot Stove season only days away, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…
- Sox and Pinstripes looks at what it would take for the Red Sox to land Adrian Gonzalez.
- Phlavio's Corner attempts to fix the Diamondbacks in three moves or less.
- Around the Majors takes a look at the free agent class of shortstops.
- MLB Notebook breaks down the market for Jim Thome.
- Nick's Twins Blog makes an off-season blueprint for the Twins and projects next season's roster.
- Capitol Avenue Club examines what the Braves can do to reload the bullpen in 2010.
- Talking Chop says the Braves need to add a power-bat this off-season, in part to protect Chipper Jones.
- Marlin Maniac sees Eric Hinske as a good fit for the Marlins.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.
Olney On La Russa, Mulder, Hudson
ESPN.com's Buster Olney breaks down last night's ALCS contest in detail before turning to some rumors. Here they are:
- Olney can see Tony La Russa returning to manage the Cardinals for a final season in 2010.
- Could Mark Mulder end up in Milwaukee? His former pitching coach, Rick Peterson, has joined the Brewers, who are looking for starting pitching. Brewers manager Ken Macha managed the A's when Mulder was in his prime. As Olney points out, Mulder won't be expensive.
- The Braves are determining the trade market for Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe. They're more likely to bring Tim Hudson back if they anticipate a trade market for Kawakami or Lowe.
- Talks with Hudson should accelerate in the next week or so.
Braves Rumors: Soriano, Gonzalez, Hudson
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution talked to Braves GM Frank Wren yesterday. Hot stove highlights:
- Wren considers the Braves' biggest needs to be the bullpen and the offense.
- O'Brien is certain the Braves won't try to re-sign both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. O'Brien explains why it's in the Braves' best interest to stay tight-lipped about possible arbitration offers for any Type A or B free agents (Soriano and Gonzalez both project as Type As).
- O'Brien guesses the Braves will try to work out a multiyear extension with Tim Hudson at less than $10MM per year. Decisions on Hudson's $12MM mutual option within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.
- Wren implied Martin Prado will enter Spring Training as the Braves' starting second baseman. We talked earlier this month about Kelly Johnson as a trade candidate.
- As you learned from Baseball America's Matt Eddy a week ago, righties Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle, and Vladimir Nunez were granted free agency. Wren says the Braves still need to make decisions on whether to attempt to re-sign any of them.