Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
2007 Atlanta Braves
Next up in the 2007 Team Outlooks we have the Atlanta Braves.
John Schuerholz’s contract obligations:
C – Brian McCann – $0.3335MM
C – Brayan Pena – $0.33MM
1B – Adam LaRoche – $0.42MM
2B – Marcus Giles – $3.85MM
SS – Edgar Renteria – $6.333MM
3B – Chipper Jones – $11MM
IF – Pete Orr – $0.34MM
IF – Willy Aybar – $0.33MM
IF – Martin Prado – $0.33MM
LF – Matt Diaz – $0.33MM, Ryan Langerhans – $0.345MM
CF – Andruw Jones – $13.5MM
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $0.3845MM
1B/OF – Scott Thorman – $0.33MM
SP – John Smoltz – $8MM
SP – Chuck James – $0.327MM
SP – Mike Hampton – $14.5MM
SP – Tim Hudson – $6MM
SP – Horacio Ramirez – $2.2MM
SP – Kyle Davies – $0.3335MM
SP – Anthony Lerew – $0.33MM
RP – Bob Wickman – $6.5MM
RP – Chris Reitsma – $2.75MM
RP – Oscar Villarreal – $0.4625MM
RP – Lance Cormier – $0.345MM
RP – Macay McBride – $0.332MM
RP – Kevin Barry – $0.33MM
RP – Blaine Boyer – $0.336MM
RP – Joey Devine – $0.33MM
RP – Wayne Franklin – $0.33MM
RP – Chad Paronto – $0.33MM
RP – Ken Ray – $0.33MM
RP – Tyler Yates – $0.33MM
Injured:
RP – John Foster – $0.35MM (TJ June ’06)
RP – Kelly Johnson – $0.336MM (TJ June ’06)
With some raises, my ballpark estimate for the payroll is $85MM. The Braves were at $90MM on Opening Day 2006.
The Braves intend to trim $4MM by trading Giles this winter. They’ll go with Prado and Aybar at second base. A more sensible plan would’ve been to keep Wilson Betemit instead of trading him for Danys Baez, but what’s done is done. By the way, an analysis of Giles led to this conclusion by Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus:
"If the Braves do indeed move Giles this winter, as has been whispered, then some new team might have themselves a second baseman who is still within his peak productivity, and may even get him at bargain-basement pricing, considering his "off" year. Considering this winter’s weak free agent class, adding a player of Giles’ caliber would be a serious upgrade in a market that doesn’t offer very many of those."
Moving along – the idea of trading Chipper has come up, but the Braves probably can’t find anything that makes sense. Jones is shooting for 150 games in 2007 after playing only 110 in 2005 and again this year. Most likely, Braves fans will be seeing plenty of Aybar at third and the team won’t have an alternative to Prado at second while Jones is out.
At .282/.352/.433 this year, the Braves’ left field platoon has been affordable but below average in slugging for the position. Schuerholz needs to bring someone in. The team hasn’t had a power hitter in left since Chipper played there in ’03. The norm has been names like Diaz, Langerhans, B.J. Surhoff, Bobby Bonilla, Reggie Sanders – veteran retreads or overexposed fourth outfielders. Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Lee are the difference makers available. The Braves aren’t going to make a huge free agent signing, but a trade for Crawford is possible. Chuck James would enjoy that outfield defense.
Smoltz and James are locked into the first two slots in the ’07 rotation. Smoltz will be 40 and James is due for a regression, but it’s a good start. Hampton recently threw batting practice after returning from Tommy John surgery. Yes, the Braves are paying the full $14.5MM for him in ’07. The thought that Tim Hudson will bounce back is probably wishful thinking. His peripherals have been steadily unimpressive for two seasons now, and that spells an ERA at 4.50 or worse.
The fifth starter will probably be Davies or Ramirez. Davies, at least, has the potential to pitch better than a fifth starter. He’ll be 23 and healthy, and I think he’ll rightfully be the favorite.
The rotation has a chance to be solid if not spectacular. The Braves will be fortunate to get league average work from Hampton, Hudson, and Davies, but there are no huge holes.
Schuerholz gave Wickman the big bucks to finally end the team’s closer problems. It seemed like a necessary evil. One would expect the usual cast of no-names, kids, and retreads rounding out the pen behind Wickman and Villarreal. I can’t say I disagree.
The Braves are saddled by some large salaries on guys who won’t earn them – Chipper, Hampton, Hudson. Chipper has already restructured his contract to free some dollars for the club. If the Braves only have $5-10MM to spend this winter, they should use it on a power-hitting left fielder. The time is now for the Braves, who may be without Smoltz and Andruw Jones in 2008.
Bob Wickman Stays With Braves
Finding a return to the NL to his liking, 37 year-old closer Bob Wickman has re-upped with the Braves for one year and $6.5MM. It seems a little pricey for a guy valued at about a million bucks for 2007 by Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system. Still, he was the best option in a thin market.
Some teams are already thinking outside the box when looking for closers. The Red Sox are considering trying hard-thrower Matt Clement in the role. His stuff is nasty, so maybe a move to the ‘pen would do him good. Other possible converts include Adam Eaton, Randy Wolf, and Kerry Wood. Wood is the most likely to make the switch, and he could find some interested parties despite pitching only 85 innings over the past two seasons.
Chuck James and Rich Hill Examined
A couple of interesting rookie southpaws have burst onto the scene in recent months. RotoAuthority has an in-depth look at Rich Hill and Chuck James.
Smoltz Chats With Schuerholz
One thing I forgot to mention when quoting John Smoltz a couple of days ago was his reference to Schuerholz as "the homeboy upstairs." Didn’t seem newsworthy. However, there has been some minor debate within the Braves community. Was it offensive, was it part of an agenda, stuff like that. To see Smoltz and Schuerholz’s take on that, check out David O’Brien’s blog for the AJC.
More importantly, O’Brien mentions that "the Braves are surely going to pick up the option." As I mentioned before, it’s a no-brainer. The more interesting question is whether the two parties will hammer out a contract extension to allow Smoltz to finish his career as a Brave. He’s stated his desire to do so publicly.
Smoltz Could Leave Braves
It seems like every couple of years, the Braves go through contract negotations with John Smoltz. He’s been a Brave for all these years, it just seems inevitable that they’ll work something out. However, a recent quote from Smoltz makes this offseason sound a little different:
All I know is, after these last two years and with my desire to work out, I’ve got two or three more years, easy. I used to always be of the mind-set that if it’s not here, it won’t be anywhere else. But that’s not the case any more. I’ll pitch somewhere else.
Smoltz, 39, is having a Cy Young caliber season. He’s got a 3.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 in 190 innings. Shortly after the World Series, the Braves need to decide if he’s worth $8MM for 2007.
Smoltz received a four-year deal worth $31MM in November of 1996 following his Cy Young season. He became baseball’s highest-paid pitcher at the time. The results of the contract were 90 starts, one Tommy John surgery, and one season as closer. His next multiyear deal was three years and $30 mil, with a club option as well. He signed his current extension in December of 2004; it included a $6MM signing bonus to bring the average annual value to $9.3MM assuming the option is exercised.
That option, by the way, is a no-brainer. Smoltz is worth $7.4MM next year according to Baseball Prospectus. They project his value at just $11.5MM over the 2008-10 seasons, however. The smart business move may be to just exercise the option and leave it at that. That could result in a midsummer deal. Smoltz’s former team, the Tigers, could have interest if he’s ever available. Smoltz hails from Warren, Michigan and grew up in the Tigers’ system.
One thing that could maybe turn a few teams off: some comments Smoltz made a couple of years ago. I haven’t been able to find out if he’s amended or clarified since. And honestly most teams would probably ignore it the way they ignore DUIs and stuff like that.
Minor Trades and Rumors
The Cubs unloaded Neifi Perez on the Tigers today, and it was no surprise Neifi got through waivers. What team would want to be on the hook for $2.5MM for him next year? Ditching Neifi at this point at least partially rights the wrong of signing him to an extension in the first place for Jim Hendry. The Cubs’ "everything man" will be making outs atop of Detroit’s lineup now. Even more impressive is that Hendry snagged a 22 year-old catching prospect, Chris Robinson, in the deal.
The Mets added righty reliever Guillermo Mota today. Along with Oliver Perez, this is another project with plenty of upside. Mota was one of the game’s top setup men a few years ago.
Tom Glavine‘s got a possible blood clot, which could mean season or career-ending surgery. At least his life is not in danger. The news first appeared on an ESPN message board from a man said to be Glavine’s brother-in-law. Back when Glavine appeared healthy, the same source indicated that the southpaw would finish his career with the Braves, at any salary.
Reggie Sanders may have cleared waivers. Who wants a 38 year-old right fielder with a .248/.304/.424 line? Don’t forget the $5MM he’s owed next year.
From Yankees announcer Jim Kaat: the Rangers may be talking to the Orioles about Mark Teixeira. Tex is from Maryland, for what it’s worth.
Plenty of buzz going around in various forms of media that the Red Sox may acquire reliever LaTroy Hawkins. We’ll know soon enough. The 33 year-old has, at least, kept the ball in the yard and exhibited good control with the Orioles this year.
More On Andruw Jones and Waivers
A couple of columns shed light on the Andruw Jones situation recently. As you know, Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back. Andruw called the whole affair "rude."
"The Braves routinely put their entire roster on waivers in August, trying to mask their intentions with the two or three players they might want to trade.
Thus, Jones likely has been on waivers every year of his 10-year career. And even though he reportedly was claimed by an undisclosed club, the Braves still couldn’t have traded him without his permission, according to major-league sources."
And then there’s the matter of which team was awarded the claim. Speculation that it was an NL Central team has proven true, according to Will Carroll. Carroll tells us the Astros were awarded the claim. Well-regarded pitching prospect Troy Patton is not on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros wouldn’t have had to pass him through waivers in a deal.
Braves Scouts Attended Rangers Game Thursday
According to the Dallas Morning News Seamheads blog, two Braves scouts attended Thursday’s Rangers-Angels game.
Evan Grant theorizes that the Rangers may have claimed Andruw Jones to block the Angels. He also described the scouts’ attendance as "unusual."
Said Buster Olney today on Jones:
"If they don’t trade him today without getting his approval then they never will be able to. If Jones is in the lineup against the Reds this afternoon, we’ll know he’s staying, at least until the offseason."
Andruw deemed it "rude" that the Braves are keeping him in the dark about this waiver business. But John Schuerholz did say "He should know that we would talk if a trade was imminent."
I would’ve suggested that the Braves and Rangers were discussing Chris Reitsma or John Thomson, but both look to be out for the season. Still, waiver trades are almost never as interesting as Andruw Jones.
Which Team Was Awarded The Andruw Jones Claim?
The Braves have until Saturday afternoon to either strike a deal with the team that was awarded a claim for Andruw Jones or pull him back. Most likely, the Braves will hang on to Jones. As I learned from Steve Phillips, "all 40-man roster players must go through waivers in order to change teams even if they are in the minor leagues." The old player-to-be-named-later is an option, though that player cannot be an active Major Leaguer.
We know more than one team put in a claim on Jones. Because he’s in the NL, NL teams get first rights to Jones. That’s why I’d guess that the team awarded the claim is not the Angels or Red Sox.
What if it was the Cubs, with an eye towards being competitive in 2007? Would the Brewers, Astros, Reds, or Cardinals get involved?
If a deal were made, I would have to think the team sending away younger player(s) would have a handshake deal with a team like the Cubs to let the kids through.