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Austin Cox Opts Out Of Royals Deal

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Left-hander Austin Cox opted out of a minor league contract with the Royals, as first reported by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (X link). He returns to free agency after K.C. decided not to select him onto the 40-man roster.

Cox was a fifth-round pick by the Royals out of Mercer in 2018. He had spent all but one day of his professional career in the organization. The 27-year-old southpaw reached the majors last season and pitched in 24 games. He turned in a 4.54 ERA across 35 2/3 innings, striking out 22.1% of opponents against an elevated 11.4% walk percentage. His debut season came to an unfortunate end in September. Cox tore the ACL in his left knee as he tried to cover first base on a ground-ball. He underwent surgery not long thereafter.

That perhaps contributed to the Royals’ decision to take Cox off the 40-man roster. K.C. non-tendered him on November 17. That briefly sent him to free agency, though he returned to the organization on a minor league deal the following day. Cox wasn’t able to participate in Spring Training as he finished his injury rehab, but he made it back to the mound with Triple-A Omaha a couple weeks into the season.

Cox made 19 appearances with the Storm Chasers, working mostly in long relief. He worked to a 3.90 ERA with a decent 23.3% strikeout rate. Yet he also walked almost 14% of opponents, an issue he’s battled throughout his career. Cox is likely looking at another minor league deal on a team seeking multi-inning relief depth.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Braves Outright J.P. Martinez

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The Braves announced that outfielder J.P. Martínez went unclaimed on outright waivers. Atlanta had designated him for assignment on Monday when they promoted Eddie Rosario. Atlanta also optioned AJ Smith-Shawver, placed Ramón Laureano on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain, recalled Dylan Lee and reinstated Brian Anderson from the IL.

Martínez has appeared in seven games this year, picking up a lone start in right field. He has two hits in 10 at-bats. Acquired from the Rangers in an offseason DFA trade, Martínez has spent the majority of the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett. Over 60 games with the Stripers, he’s hitting .244/.335/.360 with three home runs. Martínez has drawn a fair number of walks (10.9%) but gone down on strikes at an alarming 27.6% rate.

While he hasn’t had a great ’24 season, Martínez was a productive Triple-A player a year ago. He raked at a .298/.418/.543 clip with 14 homers and 38 stolen bases over 77 games with the Rangers’ top affiliate. That earned the Cuban-born outfielder 17 MLB appearances with Texas.

Martínez has never previously been outrighted and isn’t close to three years of major league service. As a result, he doesn’t have the ability to test free agency. He’ll stick in Gwinnett as non-roster outfield depth. Atlanta is likely to bring in outfield help before the July 30 deadline. With Laureano joining Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II on the injured list, their current outfield group consists of Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, Rosario, Anderson and Eli White.

MLB Finalizes 2024 Home Run Derby Participants

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Major League Baseball has finalized the eight-person field for next Monday’s Home Run Derby. The full list of participants:

Alonso and García return from last year’s event. The New York first baseman is in the event for the fifth consecutive time. Alonso won back-to-back times in 2019-21 (there was no Derby in 2020 because of the pandemic) but has successively been knocked out by Julio Rodríguez in the last two events. García was dropped by Randy Arozarena in the first round last year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the event but decided not to try to defend his title.

This year’s festivities are taking place at Arlington’s Globe Life Field. Under the collective bargaining agreement, the Derby winner will receive $1MM. The runner-up takes home $500K, while every other participant receives $150K. The player who hits the longest home run wins $100K.

This year’s event involves a few rule changes, as Buster Olney of ESPN recently wrote. The first round no longer features head-to-head matchups. The top four home run hitters will move to the second round, with the longest homer serving as a tiebreaker. MLB is also limiting hitters to 40 swings per round and is changing the bonus round from a clock to a limit of three outs (four if a player hit a 425-foot homer in the bonus round).

Dodgers Option Bobby Miller

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The Dodgers optioned Bobby Miller to Triple-A Oklahoma City this afternoon. Los Angeles recalled reliever Ricky Vanasco to step into the bullpen for the time being.

Miller was the Dodgers’ most reliable starting pitcher by the end of his rookie season. The former first-round pick and top prospect turned in a 3.76 ERA over 23 starts in his debut campaign. He entered this year as the arguable #3 arm behind offseason pickups Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Miller’s year could hardly have started any better, as he tossed six scoreless innings with a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Cardinals in his debut.

Things fell off after that. The Cubs tagged Miller for five runs without allowing him to escape the second inning during his next start. Miller came out of his third appearance with shoulder inflammation. He spent the next two months on the injured list.

The Dodgers activated Miller from the IL on June 19. He has taken the ball four times since that point with dismal results. Miller allowed five runs over 6 1/3 frames at Coors Field. He surrendered three runs over two innings to the White Sox before tossing five frames of two-run ball against the Diamondbacks. Working on a full week of rest, he hit a low point in last night’s start against the Phillies.

Philadelphia tagged Miller for nine runs on 10 hits through four innings. He gave up two home runs and has surrendered at least one longball in each of his last four outings. Miller has issued three walks in every appearance since returning and hasn’t recorded more than four strikeouts in a start. Since his reinstatement, he has allowed 19 runs across 17 1/3 innings. Miller has walked 12 while striking out nine. Opponents are hitting .338/.434/.620 with five homers in 83 plate appearances.

That’s obviously nowhere near the level the Dodgers were expecting. Miller and skipper Dave Roberts each told reporters that the pitcher is not working through any shoulder discomfort (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Miller has lost a bit of velocity, though, sitting in the 96-97 MPH range with his fastball after averaging around 99 MPH during his season debut. It’s possible there’s something amiss mechanically, although a 96-97 MPH heater should still have plenty of life.

Pitchers must spend at least 15 days in the minors after being optioned unless they’re recalled to replace an injured player. The Dodgers can bring Miller back up on July 25. That could amount to skipping just one turn through the rotation because of next week’s All-Star festivities, but Roberts said the team doesn’t have a specific target for Miller’s return. It’s not out of the question he remains in Triple-A past the July 30 trade deadline.

Miller’s demotion is another hit to what has become a rotation in flux. The Dodgers have placed Yamamoto, Glasnow and Walker Buehler on the injured list over the past few weeks. Glasnow is dealing with what seems to be minor back tightness and should be back in short order. The timeline on Buehler (hip inflammation) and Yamamoto (rotator cuff strain) is less clear. Los Angeles could welcome Clayton Kershaw around the end of this month, but he’s coming back from offseason shoulder surgery.

Gavin Stone, James Paxton and Landon Knack now stand as the top three arms in the L.A. rotation. Lefty Justin Wrobleski made his big league debut over the weekend and will probably get another start. They’re essentially out of other healthy starters. Ardaya reported last night that righty Kyle Hurt, who might’ve been a depth option, is being shut down after experiencing elbow soreness in Triple-A. The Dodgers will probably need to deploy a bullpen game at some point this week to get to the All-Star Break.

With a 7.5 game cushion in the NL West, the Dodgers have some leeway to weather a tough few weeks on the rotation front. They still have plenty of upside for a playoff rotation that could include Glasnow, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Stone, and potentially a resurgent Buehler or Miller. There’s growing uncertainty with the group, though, which raises questions for the front office before the deadline.

The Dodgers have already reportedly made an offer for White Sox breakout lefty Garrett Crochet. Chicago turned it down, but L.A. will surely remain one of a number of teams in that mix. Crochet’s teammate Erick Fedde is also likely to be traded, as are rentals Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Under-The-Radar Bullpen Trade Candidates

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A number of relievers move every deadline season. Almost every contender could at least upgrade upon the seventh or eighth man in their bullpen. Others urgently need to bring in one or more high-leverage pieces. Teams outside the playoff picture are usually willing to field offers on their relievers, particularly on middle innings arms.

This summer's market will feature a few obvious names. Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott are good impending free agent closers on bad teams. They're going to move. Yimi García, John Brebbia, Luis García, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, T.J. McFarland, Derek Law and Jalen Beeks are affordable rental middle relievers on clubs that are at best fringe contenders. They could each go for a mid-tier prospect. Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan and Michael Kopech -- each of whom are controllable through 2025 -- have already been the subject of trade rumors. So has A's breakout closer Mason Miller, although Oakland would need to be blown away to move him with another five years of team control.

Those are some of the more obvious options. Most teams will cast an even wider net, though, identifying a few players of interest who aren't prototypical trade candidates. There are typically a couple controllable relievers who find themselves on the move even if they weren't the subject of many pre-deadline rumors. Scott Effross and Colin Holderman fit that bill a couple years ago. Jose Cuas, Peter Strzelecki and Manuel Rodríguez were dealt at last summer's deadline.

Predicting long shot trade candidates is by definition going to lead to more misses than hits. Most of the following players will still be on their current teams come August. Yet I'll try to identify a few controllable bullpen pieces who have a small but realistic chance to be traded in the next couple weeks.

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Dominican Prosecutors Bring Formal Charges Against Wander Franco

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July 10:  Recio further reports that in a Wednesday press release, Dominican authorities have indicated Franco will also be accused of human trafficking (in addition to prior charges of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation against a minor). The additional charge comes with potential for as much as 20 years in prison. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays on X that Franco is no longer on administrative leave. The Rays requested he be moved to the restricted list and MLB approved their request. Franco won’t be paid nor will he receive service time while on the restricted list.

July 9: Prosecutors in the Dominican Republic have brought formal charges against Wander Franco, tweets Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. Franco is officially facing charges of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation against a minor, according to the report.

Franco has been on administrative leave for the entire 2024 season. He has not played in the majors since social media allegations came to light last August accusing Franco of having sexual relations with a 14-year-old girl. The age of consent in the Dominican Republic is 18.

In January, prosecutors claimed that Franco paid the girl’s mother the equivalent of thousands of dollars to remain silent about the alleged abuse. According to a Spanish-language report from Listín Diario, the girl’s mother is facing charges of trafficking, sexual exploitation and money laundering.

While prosecutors initially indicated they were considering charging Franco with commercial/sexual exploitation and money laundering, a judge lessened the potential charges against him to sexual and psychological abuse. Those charges come with a potential prison term of two to five years. The court gave prosecutors until July to determine whether to officially bring charges, which they have decided to do.

MLB is likely to wait for the legal proceedings to play out before levying any discipline against Franco under the domestic violence/child abuse policy. Administrative leave, which is not considered punitive, is designed to allow the league to conduct an investigation after players are accused of a violation. MLB and the Players Association have already agreed to extend Franco’s leave until the All-Star Break. It is likely they’ll continue to do so until the legal process in the D.R. is resolved.

Latest On Phillies’ Rotation

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The Phillies are making an adjustment to their rotation. Rookie right-hander Tyler Phillips will make his first big league start on Saturday against the A’s, tweets Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Fellow rookie Michael Mercado is set to work from the bullpen.

Mercado, 25, just stepped into the starting five in late June. He threw five innings of one-run ball against the Cubs in his first MLB start. The Braves teed off on Mercado on Saturday, though, tagging him for five runs on a trio of homers before he could escape the second inning. While one poor start won’t change the organization’s view on Mercado, most prospect evaluators suggest his fastball-curveball arsenal is better suited for relief work.

A former second-round pick of the Rays, Mercado joined the Phils in a minor trade at the beginning of last offseason. He has started 10 of 14 appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Mercado has a stellar 1.71 earned run average at the top minor league level. However, he has walked more than 11% of batters faced while averaging fewer than four innings per appearance.

Phillips has had a more conventional starting role with Lehigh Valley. He has started all 15 Triple-A appearances and averaged slightly more than six innings per game. His 4.89 ERA is a lot more pedestrian than Mercado’s mark, although he has shown somewhat better control (9.4% walk rate). Mercado throws a bit harder than Phillips does and has demonstrated a lot more bat-missing ability in the minor leagues. Phillips, whom the team added to the 40-man roster last week, has a modest 19.8% strikeout rate for the IronPigs. To his credit, Phillips punched out seven hitters across four innings of relief behind Mercado against Atlanta in his big league debut.

The Phillies have built enough of a cushion that they shouldn’t be concerned about some short-term uncertainty in their starting five. They’re eight games clear of the Braves for the division lead and 4.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the National League’s top seed. An excellent rotation has been a major reason. Philadelphia’s front four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez is arguably the best in MLB.

The fifth spot is the only question mark. Taijuan Walker allowed a 5.60 ERA over 10 starts before inflammation in his index finger sent him to the injured list a few weeks ago. Spencer Turnbull managed great results as a sixth starter, but he sustained a lat strain that’ll knock him out into August.

Barring injury, the Phils look like the rare contender that doesn’t need to urgently pursue rotation help over the next three weeks. Wheeler’s status is worth monitoring after the Phils lifted him at 76 pitches during tonight’s start. The team announced that the star righty was battling lower back tightness. After the game, skipper Rob Thomson called it a precautionary measure with the Phillies already holding an eight-run lead (X link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson suggested the team would evaluate Wheeler tomorrow but indicated the club expects he’ll be fine to make his next start.

Astros Notes: McCullers, Bloss, Verlander

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Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from last year’s flexor surgery hit a snag. Manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon the team was pausing the righty’s throwing program after he experienced arm soreness coming out of his recent bullpen sessions (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The team didn’t provide much detail, as Espada noted only that McCullers won’t throw for a few days “until we sit back down and reevaluate how we’re going to move forward.”

It’s possible this is merely a minor setback and McCullers will be able to resume throwing in the coming days. Still, any mention of arm soreness is going to raise alarm with the pitcher’s injury history. McCullers lost the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the previous November. He returned and stayed healthy for most of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he battled forearm discomfort during the ’21 postseason.

McCullers was out into August ’22. He returned to make 11 starts down the stretch and into the playoffs before suffering another arm injury while ramping up during the 2022-23 offseason. That eventually necessitated surgery. McCullers hasn’t pitched in a game since starting Game 3 of the 2022 World Series.

That kind of extended layoff makes it difficult for the Astros to bank too heavily on McCullers contributing down the stretch. Yet the team has pointed to returns from Luis Garcia and McCullers as possible stabilizers for a rotation that is barely hanging on. Garcia is on a rehab stint as he works back from last May’s Tommy John procedure. He could be back around the start of August. Even if all goes well with Garcia, the rotation depth remains perhaps the team’s biggest question.

Houston is operating with four starting pitchers at the moment. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are the only healthy starters on the 40-man roster. They should get a fifth arm back this week. Espada suggested that Jake Bloss is likely to return from the 15-day injured list to start on Thursday against the Marlins (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Bloss suffered a shoulder injury during his MLB debut on June 21 and has been shelved for around three weeks.

Getting Bloss back nominally completes the rotation, but the club can’t feel great about relying on a pair of rookies for the final two spots. Arrighetti has had an inconsistent debut campaign and is sitting on a 5.96 ERA across 16 starts. The Astros just drafted Bloss in the third round last summer. He has made two starts above Double-A. Blanco, who has had a fantastic year after securing the fifth starter job in Spring Training, had never topped 88 innings in any minor league or MLB season before this one. He’s up to 103 frames with a 2.53 ERA after firing seven innings of two-run ball tonight.

Blanco’s emergence and Hunter Brown’s midseason turnaround have helped key the Astros’ recent push back into contention for the AL West. They’ll need more sources of reliable innings down the stretch, which will likely come through some combination of injury returnees and trade. Beyond Garcia and McCullers, Justin Verlander has been out since mid-June with neck discomfort. The future Hall of Famer suggested on Tuesday that he’s still unsure precisely when he’ll be ready for game action (link via Kawahara). Unsurprisingly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote recently that Houston is looking to add at least one starting pitcher from outside the organization before the July 30 deadline.

Pirates Outright Justin Bruihl

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Pirates reliever Justin Bruihl accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis, the team announced. Pittsburgh had designated the left-hander for assignment over the weekend. Pittsburgh also reinstated Quinn Priester from the 15-day injured list and optioned Edward Olivares to Indianapolis.

Bruihl has been a member of the Bucs for around a month. Pittsburgh signed him to a big league contract on June 6 (coincidentally in tandem with Priester’s IL placement). Manager Derek Shelton called upon Bruihl seven times. He surrendered six runs on nine hits and a walk across 5 2/3 frames. That brief stint at PNC Park marked Bruihl’s fourth consecutive season logging MLB action. He split the 2021-23 campaigns between the Dodgers and Rockies, combining for a 4.22 ERA over 72 appearances.

While Bruihl was hit hard in his limited MLB action this season, he has had a solid year in Triple-A. Splitting his time between the top affiliates of the Reds and Pirates, he owns a 2.89 ERA in 28 innings. He has fanned around a quarter of batters faced against a slightly elevated 10.2% walk rate.

Bruihl has been outrighted once before, as he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Rockies last August. That gave him the right to elect free agency, but he bypassed that to remain with Indianapolis. He’ll try to pitch his way back into a bullpen that entered play Tuesday ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.51 earned run average. Bruihl would be eligible for minor league free agency next offseason if Pittsburgh doesn’t add him back to the 40-man roster.

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