Rangers Sign Danny Jansen
December 15: Texas officially announced the signing, also revealing the presence of a mutual option for the 2028 season. The Rangers have confirmed the Jansen and Alexander deals and are up to 37 players on the roster, pending the finalization of Díaz’s contract.
December 12: The Rangers are reportedly in agreement with free agent catcher Danny Jansen on a two-year, $14.5MM deal. The contract includes another $1MM in bonuses for the ISE Baseball client. Texas entered the night with 35 players on their roster and will not need to make any corresponding moves to accommodate this evening’s flurry of free agent activity.
It’s the second straight offseason in which the Rangers added a free agent catcher on a two-year contract. They signed Kyle Higashioka to a $13.5MM deal last winter. Jansen gets a nearly identical contract to split the playing time in 2026. Texas needed a catcher after non-tendering Jonah Heim on the heels of a second straight down year.
Jansen and Higashioka won’t match up in a strict platoon. They both hit from the right side. Neither player has huge platoon splits over the course of their careers. That’ll allow Skip Schumaker to divide the playing time based on comfort with each day’s starting pitcher. Higashioka and Jansen are similar players overall, though the latter is the more patient hitter. That provides a slightly higher floor from an on-base perspective even if neither player is likely to hit for a high average.
The 30-year-old Jansen (31 in April) was an underrated all-around catcher early in his career with the Blue Jays. He generally performed well in limited playing time but struggled to stay healthy for a full season. Jansen has avoided injuries over the past two years except for a small wrist fracture that cost him the first couple weeks of the 2024 campaign. His production on both sides of the ball dropped that year, though, leaving him to take an $8.5MM pillow contract with the Rays.
Jansen’s numbers rebounded to an extent in Tampa Bay. He hit .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs across 259 plate appearances. It was at least a jump from a power perspective, as he connected on two more homers in that half-season than he had over 94 games in 2024. His defensive performance was mixed. Jansen is among the league’s best at blocking balls in the dirt, but his pitch framing numbers have declined over the past couple years. He doesn’t have great pure arm strength yet managed to throw out a solid 24% of baserunners after struggling in that regard in 2024.
Tampa Bay dealt him to the Brewers at the deadline. While it was surely a nice return home for the Appleton, Wisconsin native, that wasn’t an ideal landing spot a couple months before free agency. William Contreras plays as much as any catcher. Jansen only got 16 starts and tallied 78 plate appearances with the Brew Crew. He made the most of the sporadic playing time, adding another three homers and doubles apiece. He hit .254/.346/.433 in that limited look. While Jansen isn’t a high-end #1 option, he’s overqualified for a backup role behind one of the five best catchers in the game.
It was always going to be a brief stint in Milwaukee. They made the easy call to decline a $12MM option and look for a much cheaper backup catcher. Jansen finds a better landing spot in Arlington. He benefitted from a weak free agent class. The Rangers weren’t willing to spend what it’d take to add J.T. Realmuto. That left Jansen and Victor Caratini as the only real possibilities if they were going to sign a catcher. Everyone else in the class is a backup or organizational depth type.
RosterResource estimated the Rangers’ payroll around $167MM heading into the evening. Evenly distributing Jansen’s salaries would push that close to $174MM. Texas also agreed to one-year deals with Alexis Díaz and Tyler Alexander. Contract terms for the two pitchers are unreported, though it’s unlikely they cost more than a couple million dollars between the two of them.
The Rangers opened the 2025 season with a player payroll around $218MM. They’ve been clear that number is coming down, though it’s not known to what extent ownership is willing to go. It appears the front office will do its heavy lifting either in the lower rungs of free agency or via trade. They could use a mid-rotation starter and still need to add multiple relievers. Upgrading at least one of first or third base would also be ideal, though that’s a lot to accomplish on what appears to be a tight budget.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the agreement on a two-year, $14.5MM deal. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.
Blue Jays Sign Tyler Rogers To Three-Year Deal
The Blue Jays announced the signing of free agent reliever Tyler Rogers to a three-year contract. It’s reportedly a $37MM guarantee for the Frontline Athlete Management client. Rogers receives a $5MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for the 2026 season. He’ll make $12MM annually between 2027-28 and is guaranteed a $1MM buyout on a $9MM club option for 2029. The option vests at a $12MM salary if Rogers makes 60 appearances in ’28 or combines for 110 games between 2027-28 (assuming he passes a postseason physical). Lefty Justin Bruihl has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.
Rogers, who’ll celebrate his 35th birthday next week, secures a sizable payday to pitch at the back of the Toronto bullpen. One of the sport’s most distinctive pitchers, Rogers is a soft-tossing submariner who bided his time awaiting an MLB opportunity. He was a 10th-round pick by the Giants in 2013 who signed for $7,500 after his senior season at Austin Peay State University. Rogers spent the next six years in the minor leagues, performing well all the way up through Triple-A but without the raw stuff to get the attention of the big league club.
It wasn’t until the end of Rogers’ third full season in Triple-A that he received an MLB look. He was nearing his 29th birthday and close to calling it quits to pursue a career as a firefighter (as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area covered in 2020). The Giants finally gave him an opportunity at the end of the ’19 season. Rogers tossed 17 2/3 innings of three-run ball to hold his roster spot. He broke camp the following year and has never gone back down to the minors — not even on a rehab stint.
Rogers has played six-plus seasons in the big leagues without going on the injured list. While there’s obviously some luck involved in avoiding any fluke injuries, it’s clear that his underhand delivery puts less stress on his arm. Rogers has made 403 appearances since the start of the 2020 season. That’s 30 more than any other pitcher. Most of those outings have come in high-leverage situations, as his arm angle continues to flummox hitters.
After posting a 4.50 earned run average as a rookie, Rogers has turned in a 3.04 mark or better in four of the past five seasons. He ranks near the bottom of the league in whiffs and has never posted a league average strikeout rate. That’s to be expected for a pitcher who throws an 82-83 MPH sinker and a sweeping breaking ball that clocks in around 74 MPH. It’s a profile designed for weak, ground-ball contact. Rogers gets that year after year, and he almost never puts batters on via base on balls.
While some pitchers with extremely low arm slots can struggle with opposite-handed batters, that hasn’t been an issue for Rogers. He has held lefties to a .235/.289/.336 line in 776 career plate appearances. Right-handed hitters haven’t fared much better, turning in .246/.282/.350 mark in nearly 1000 trips to the plate.
Rogers has spent the bulk of his career in San Francisco, including a two-year stretch where he overlapped with twin brother Taylor Rogers. The Giants fell out of contention shortly before the trade deadline and flipped the impending free agent to the Mets for middle reliever José Buttó and prospects Blade Tidwell and Drew Gilbert. Rogers continued churning out results in his new home, pitching 27 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. He finished the season with a career-best 1.98 earned run average behind a 62.1% grounder rate while leading MLB with 81 appearances.
The Mets unsurprisingly wanted Rogers back, but they balked at what turned out to be a surprisingly lucrative contract. He more than doubled MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM deal. New York has also seen Edwin Díaz, Gregory Soto and Ryan Helsley sign elsewhere. They’ve added Devin Williams to close but will need to find multiple setup arms from the right side.
That’s the role Rogers should continue to fill with the Jays. Toronto was open to supplanting Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning, but they didn’t come away with any of Díaz, Raisel Iglesias or Robert Suarez. Rogers had a brief run as San Francisco’s closer in 2021 but has otherwise been a setup man. He was fourth in MLB with 32 holds this past season and handily leads the majors in that category over the last six years. Rogers joins Louis Varland as the top leverage arms in front of Hoffman.
The Jays could still look to add a better left-hander than Brendon Little, but Rogers becomes the fifth member of their projected bullpen who cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. Hoffman, Yimi García and Eric Lauer all have the five-plus years of service time to refuse any minor league assignment. Tommy Nance is out of options. Varland can be optioned but certainly isn’t in jeopardy of being sent down. If the Jays have all six starters healthy going into the season, that’d leave only one spot for Little or another left-handed acquisition. That’s to say nothing of Rule 5 picks Angel Bastardo and Spencer Miles — both of whom have an uphill battle to stick on the roster.
Those are secondary considerations for an all-in Toronto team. The $12.333MM average annual value pushes their estimated luxury tax number to $294MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s already easily a franchise high before considering the possibility that they add Kyle Tucker or bring back Bo Bichette.
That’ll be their second straight season paying the competitive balance tax. They’re hit with a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM and taxed at a 75% rate from $284MM to $304MM. Any spending above the final threshold comes with a 90% penalty. The Rogers deal will come with an approximate $8-9MM tax bill. It also firmly pushes them beyond the $284MM mark at which their top pick in the 2027 draft is moved back by 10 spots (though that was basically inevitable after the Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce signings).
It’s a significant investment in a 35-year-old reliever. The Braves also went to three years, at $15MM annually, to sign Suarez on Thursday. That was the first three-year contract for a reliever that age since 2020. There hadn’t been a three-year term at more than $10MM per season for a 35-year-old bullpen arm since Mariano Rivera almost two decades ago. A closer who sits around 99 MPH, Suarez breaking that precedent wasn’t as surprising. The Jays are betting on Rogers’ unconventional style to age equally well.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the three-year, $37MM deal and the vesting option specifics. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the salary breakdown and the $9MM club option.
Image courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images.
Rangers Sign Tyler Alexander
December 15th: The Rangers officially announced the signing. Alexander’s deal will pay him a $1.125MM base salary and he can unlock another $1.125MM via performance bonuses, rep Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
December 12th: The Rangers are signing left-hander Tyler Alexander to a one-year contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Salary figures for the SSG Baseball client haven’t been reported. Texas entered the night with 35 players on their roster. That’ll jump to 38 once they finalize their contracts with Alexander, Danny Jansen (covered here) and Alexis Díaz (covered here).
Alexander will provide a multi-inning arm out of Skip Schumaker’s bullpen. The 31-year-old logged 97 2/3 innings across 52 appearances between the Brewers and White Sox this year. He started five games, all but one coming with Milwaukee in the beginning of the season, but spent the bulk of the year pitching 3-4 inning stints in relief. While the Rangers could theoretically give him a look in the rotation, it’s more likely they’d view Jacob Latz as a true swing option while pitching Alexander in low-leverage relief.
The southpaw was hit hard over his few months in Milwaukee. He carried a 6.19 ERA in 36 1/3 frames when they designated him for assignment in June. Alexander cleared waivers but found an immediate MLB opportunity in Chicago once he hit free agency. He pitched well enough as a veteran bullpen piece to stick on the roster for the reminder of the season. Alexander worked to a 4.26 earned run average over 61 1/3 innings in a White Sox uniform. He had a modest 20.1% strikeout rate but limited the walks and hard contact reasonably well.
That was enough to earn another big league contract. It comes with the added bonus of being with his hometown club. Alexander is a Southlake, Texas native who played collegiately at TCU. He was a second-round pick by the Tigers in 2015 and has spent the majority of his career in Detroit. Alexander owns a 4.63 ERA over parts of seven seasons. He sits in the 90-91 MPH range but mixes five pitches and did a decent job staying off barrels this year.
The Rangers constructed their 2025 bullpen mostly with a series of cheap one-year free agent pickups. It worked as well as they could’ve hoped, as the relief corps turned in a 3.62 ERA despite ranking 20th in strikeout rate and finishing third from the bottom in average fastball velocity. It’s not going to be easy to replicate. They’re likely in for a similar effort this offseason.
RosterResource estimated the Rangers’ payroll around $167MM heading into the evening. Evenly distributing Jansen’s salaries would push that close to $174MM. Contract terms for the two pitchers are unreported, though it’s unlikely they cost more than a couple million dollars between the two of them. Texas opened the 2025 season with a player payroll around $218MM. They’ve been clear that number is coming down.
Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images.
Royals Continuing To Explore Outfield Market
The Royals entered the offseason in pursuit of two outfielders — ideally adding one apiece via free agency and trade. They accomplished that last week, signing Lane Thomas to a $5.25MM deal and bringing in Isaac Collins in a trade with Milwaukee.
Collins played mostly left field for the Brewers. He’s loosely penciled in there for now, while Thomas provides a right-handed hitting complement to Kyle Isbel and Jac Caglianone in center and right field, respectively. It’s better than it was at season’s end but still not a great group on paper. Thomas is coming off an injury-riddled season. Caglianone struggled mightily in his first 62 MLB games and could benefit from more time at Triple-A. Isbel is a glove-only center fielder, while Collins’ breakout season came as a 27-year-old rookie.
Unsurprisingly, the Royals haven’t closed the door on the possibility of adding another outfielder. Collins has plenty of minor league infield experience — mostly at second with a handful of starts at third base as well. President of baseball operations J.J. Picollo indicated that while the Royals expect him to play mostly outfield, he has enough defensive versatility for the front office to keep their options open (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
The switch-hitting Collins has a very patient approach. Kansas City ranked 22nd in on-base percentage (.309), and only the Rockies had a lower walk rate than their 7.2% clip. Collins provides a different skillet and generally raises the lineup’s floor, but his limited power means he doesn’t have a huge ceiling as an everyday left fielder. The Royals aren’t going to be in the market for a star outfielder in free agency, yet they’re kicking the tires on a more impactful trade possibility.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Royals could still be a factor for Jarren Duran. Rosenthal suggests that Kansas City has balked at putting star southpaw Cole Ragans in a Duran trade. Whether the Red Sox would insist on Ragans’ inclusion isn’t known, as The Athletic report indicates that Boston executives view the teams’ talks to date as preliminary.
That said, it’s clear the Red Sox are putting a lofty price on their top outfielders. Tim Healey of The Boston Globe writes that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is telling interested teams that the Sox don’t feel any pressure to trade an outfielder. They’ve taken calls on Duran and Wilyer Abreu at least dating back to the summer. Between Abreu, Duran and Roman Anthony, they have three above-average to star caliber left-handed hitting outfielders. (Anthony signed an eight-year extension in August and certainly isn’t getting traded.) Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and has the ability to play the infield, but much of his value comes from his elite center field defense.
Keeping all four players limits the Sox’s flexibility a bit. They can find at-bats for them all by rotating them through the designated hitter role and getting Rafaela occasional infield work. Boston has considered swapping one of Duran or Abreu for controllable starting pitching, though they’re less motivated to do so after acquiring Sonny Gray.
The Royals have been on the opposite end. Picollo said a few weeks ago that they were open to trading a starter for outfield help. He essentially took Ragans out of that mix, though. The 28-year-old lefty finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting two seasons ago. He missed a good chunk of ’25 battling a rotator cuff strain. He’s signed for a combined $12MM over the next two years and will be eligible for arbitration in 2028. He’s a potential ace whom the Royals control for three seasons at what’d likely be no more than $25MM in total.
“We’re in a really good spot (with rotation depth), so if the right trade comes along, and it costs us a starting pitcher, we have to look at it,” Picollo told Rogers at the Winter Meetings. “It’s just not going to be Cole. … We have to ask ourselves: Is this his max value right now? Probably not. If Cole pitches like he did in ‘24, who knows what his value is going to be? We just think right now, three years of control on a really good starting pitcher, it would have to be something crazy, something that’s like, ‘How can we pass this up?'”
Kansas City has gotten hits on controllable arms like Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Lefty Kris Bubic might be their likeliest rotation trade candidate, but he suffered a season-ending rotator cuff injury in July and is headed into his final arbitration year. No one from that group is valuable enough to headline a trade for Duran, who is coming off his third straight well above-average season. Duran is set for a $7.7MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2028.
Even if the sides can’t line up value on Duran, the Royals will evaluate other outfield possibilities. They’re also known to be searching for left-handed relief. That was more of a luxury buy around the Winter Meetings but takes on added importance after they traded Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for Collins and righty reliever Nick Mears.
Kansas City is down to Daniel Lynch IV and swingman Bailey Falter as lefty relievers on the 40-man roster. Lynch managed a 3.06 earned run average over 67 2/3 innings but did so with a well below-average 15.6% strikeout rate. There are a few one-year deal candidates available in free agency (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Caleb Ferguson, Danny Coulombe). They could also explore the trade market, with St. Louis’ JoJo Romero known to be available as he enters his final year of arbitration.
Brewers Open To Trading From Outfield Depth
The Brewers are exploring trades involving their depth outfielders, report Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. The report lists Isaac Collins and Blake Perkins as the two likeliest candidates to move.
Jackson Chourio certainly isn’t going anywhere. Christian Yelich is owed $84.5MM over the next three seasons (including a 2029 option buyout), so they’re unlikely to line up any kind of trade there. There’d be significant interest in Sal Frelick, but Milwaukee is unlikely to move him when he’s under club control for another four seasons. Frelick and Chourio should have two outfield spots secure, while Yelich is ticketed for primary DH work with occasional left field playing time.
That leaves one opening for a handful of players. Collins, Perkins and former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell would battle for playing time if they’re all on the roster. The Brewers have speedster Brandon Lockridge as a fifth outfielder and took a flier on Akil Baddoo on a split contract. They all have minor league options, so it’s not necessary to force a trade. There’s enough depth that they’re willing to move someone for help elsewhere on the roster. Rosenthal and Sammon write that Milwaukee could target a relief pitcher with minor league options who’d provide additional flexibility for a team that leans heavily on its bullpen.
Collins is coming off a breakout season in which he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting. The switch-hitting Collins batted .263/.368/.411 across 441 trips to the plate. He hit 22 doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. Collins stole 16 bases and walked at a 13% clip. He was Milwaukee’s primary left fielder and graded as a solid defender in a little over 800 innings.
That season was worth between two and three wins above replacement. Collins is under club control for five seasons and won’t qualify for arbitration for two more years. It’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to repeat that kind of season. Collins is already 28 and didn’t have particularly strong batted ball metrics. It’s a bit of a tweener profile since he’s not really an option to play center field. Yet the disciplined approach, contact skills, and solid glove in the corner should provide a reasonably high floor.
Perkins, 29, is a prototypical fourth outfielder. He’s a switch-hitter who has a middling .232/.314/.339 batting line in 773 career plate appearances. Perkins runs well and plays a plus center field. He also takes a lot of pitches and works a decent number of walks, albeit with more swing-and-miss than Collins has to his game. Perkins fell a little shy of the Super Two cutoff and will play next season for around the league minimum. He’ll be eligible for arbitration in 2027 and is under club control for four seasons.
Collins is probably the better all-around player, yet Perkins might hold broader appeal on the trade market. There are plenty of teams in need of center fielders and few options available in free agency. It’s unlikely many clubs would view Perkins as a regular, but teams like the Guardians, Angels and Giants should look for defensive upgrades up the middle.
A lot could depend on how the Brewers feel about Mitchell. He’s going into his age-27 season and still unproven at the MLB level. Mitchell is a fantastic athlete with plus speed, power and arm strength. He has the physical tools to be an impact center fielder. There’s also significant hit tool and health risk. Mitchell has punched out in more than a third of his 443 career plate appearances. He has gone on the 60-day injured list in three consecutive seasons: left shoulder surgery in 2023, a broken hand in ’24, an oblique strain and renewed shoulder pain this year. He underwent a second shoulder surgery in June and missed the rest of the season.
Mitchell is expected to be ready for Spring Training. If the Brewers remain confident that he’s their long-term answer in center field, that’d push Frelick and Chourio into the corners. Collins would make sense as the odd man out in that case because he’s stretched in center (though he has plenty of minor league second/third base experience). If they have more trepidation about Mitchell, they could pencil Frelick in as the center fielder with Collins back in left. That’d leave Mitchell and Perkins competing for playing time as the fourth outfielder with the latter potentially on the trade block.
Rockies Hire Brett Pill As Hitting Coach
The Rockies announced the hiring of former MLB first baseman Brett Pill as their hitting coach. The 41-year-old joins Warren Schaeffer’s staff after six seasons with the Dodgers. Pill had spent three years as a Double-A hitting coach in the L.A. system before getting a promotion to minor league hitting coordinator in 2023.
Pill is best known for his three-year stint playing in MLB for the Giants. He appeared in 111 games between 2011-13. Pill spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A and finished his playing career with a three-year stint for the Kia Tigers between 2014-16. He remained in Korea for three years after that, working for his former KBO team as a scout before taking the Dodgers job.
This is Pill’s first major league coaching role. He’ll hopefully provide some stability in a position that was in flux in 2025. Colorado opened the season with Hensley Meulens as hitting coach. He was fired a couple weeks into the year. Clint Hurdle stepped in from the front office to take over, but he moved to bench coach once Bud Black and Mike Redmond were fired in May. Jordan Pacheco and Nic Wilson divided the hitting coach responsibilities for the rest of the season.
There should be nowhere to go but up after a 43-119 season. Colorado was by far the worst offensive team in MLB. They were ahead of only the Pirates in scoring despite playing half their games at Coors Field. They had an MLB-worst .293 on-base percentage thanks to the league’s lowest walk rate (6.7%). Only the Angels struck out more often. Colorado hitters have their work cut out for them in road games because of the difference in pitch movements at altitude. Even with that caveat, their .203/.259/.330 team batting line outside of Denver was abysmal.
It’s obviously not going to be fixed in one offseason. They’re not going to have a good lineup in 2026, but they can hope for process improvements from the likes of Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck and (if he’s not traded) Brenton Doyle. They’ll hope for a repeat performance from 26-year-old catcher Hunter Goodman, one of the few bright spots from the ’25 team. Goodman popped 31 homers with a .278/.323/.520 batting line, tying Shea Langeliers for second among catchers in home runs.
Royals Sign Kevin Newman, Jose Cuas To Minor League Deals
The Royals announced the signing of infielder Kevin Newman and reliever Jose Cuas to minor league contracts. The team only officially announced a non-roster invite to Spring Training for Newman.
Newman, 32, was a regular shortstop for the Pirates early in his career. He has played on different teams in each of the past four seasons, settling in as a light-hitting utility player. Newman batted .278 over 111 games with the Diamondbacks in 2024. That earned him a major league contract from the Angels last offseason, but he mustered only a .202/.209/.272 showing over 116 trips to the plate. The Halos designated him for assignment when they took a flier on former top prospect Oswald Peraza at the trade deadline.
The right-handed hitting Newman finished the season in Triple-A with the Tigers. He hit .296 with a .377 on-base percentage over 15 games but didn’t get an MLB look with Detroit. Newman puts the ball in play but rarely with any authority. He doesn’t walk very often and grades as a slightly below-average defender around the infield. He’ll try to win a bench spot in Spring Training behind Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and the newly-extended Maikel Garcia.
Cuas returns to Kansas City, where he first reached the majors in 2022. The righty turned in a 3.58 ERA across 37 2/3 innings as a rookie. An early-season spike in strikeout rate the following year caught the attention of the Cubs. The Royals dealt him to Chicago in a swap for young outfielder Nelson Velazquez. It didn’t work for either team, as both players struggled in their new environment. The Cubs waived Cuas less than a year after the trade, and he spent the 2025 season in the minors. He divided his time between the Phillies’ top affiliate and Atlanta’s Double-A club, posting a combined 5.20 ERA over 27 2/3 innings.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
Reds
- Four guys under contract (Hayes, Greene, Trevino, Pagan) and less than $80 million in payroll per BR. They can't be serious about not signing anyone, right?
Anthony Franco
- Not sure where you've got the sub-$80M mark but I think they're more like 105 once you factor in arb projections and minimum salary players to build out the roster
- They should've non-tendered Lux and should still shop him and Steer, kick around ideas about swapping Singer for a bat. I don't expect them to do much in free agency, though
- They've never gone beyond $64M on a free agent and Schwarber was a special case from ownership's perspective
Breslow
- There's been rumors that the Dodgers may be looking to unload Teoscar to open up their OF a bit - do you think a swap of Teo for someone like Jordan Hicks would make some sense? Teo could become the RH DH bat the Sox are looking for while dumping Hicks $$ - relatively small net payroll add for Boston and LAD saves some money and gets back a live arm....
Anthony Franco
- Don't think it does a lot for the Dodgers. Teoscar's rough out there but so much of the deal was in a signing bonus so the remaining salary commitments (plus option buyout) is 2/33, a lot of it deferred. Hicks is due a straight 2/24 and isn't good. Teoscar should be a DH but he's still at least an offensive contributor
Robert from SC
- How much did the Braves improve with the Suarez and Yaz signings?
Anthony Franco
- Didn't love either move. Would've stopped at two years on Suarez and one on Yaz. The latter's a weird roster fit anyway unless they're trading Profar or more concerned about Murphy's health than they've really let on
- Suarez is a good, not great reliever who's entering his age-35 season. Obviously the bullpen's better with him than without, but if the velocity drops from 98-99 to like 96-97, eh
- Already doesn't have huge swing-and-miss rates because he doesn't throw a breaking ball
Willson Contreras
- Is there a taker for me if I waive the no trade? Mets? Someone else?
Anthony Franco
- Mets make the most sense, Boston could work there. Arizona, San Diego, Texas all fit positionally but probably require the Cards to eat more than half the money
Hmm
- If a team loves the Rule 5 player they chose, but don't really want to keep him on the MLB roster all season per the MLB rules, can they work out a deal with his previous team to keep him or must they pass him through waivers first, and then if he passed through waivers, must offer him back to his previous team?
Anthony Franco
- Needs to go through waivers and get offered back to the original team first. They can then try to trade for him back, which does happen sometimes -- usually for cash
Who signs first?
- Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, or Bo Bichette - who do you think signs first of this trio?
Anthony Franco
- I'll take Bo, largely on the assumption that he goes back to Toronto
Pete Alonso
- Do you think I crack 183 home runs with the Orioles, which would put 10th on the all-time home run franchise leaderboard?
Anthony Franco
- That's an average of 37 per season unless they extend or re-sign him down the line. I'll take the under, think I'd set it more at like 160
Coldstove season
- Has this been one of the slower starts to an offseason in recent memory or am I falling for some recency bias? The Winter Meetings in particular felt much less active than usual.
Anthony Franco
- Agree that the Meetings were quieter than usual. Offseason as a whole maybe a little slower than normal but not dramatically so. I get some version of this question every year
- I think there's been a decent amount of movement overall but it's not all that exciting because so much of it has been the bullpen market
Curious A's Fan
- Your call: Do you overpay for a FA pitcher like Bassitt or M. Kelly (2+ year contract) OR trade Colby Thomas for a rental SP like Singer or Bubic?
Anthony Franco
- I'd trade Thomas for Bubic (assuming the medical review checks out) but not for Singer. I don't think a two-year deal at $16-18M per for Merrill or Bassitt is much of an overpay, so I'm fine with that direction if they want to give Thomas a chance to play his way into the outfield mix again
- I would be out on either of those guys if it got to three years though
Joe from Milwaukee
- The Brewers have made giant trades before when they had other young, controllable pieces in place (Yelich). Do you think they pull off a Ketel Marte/Corey Seager sized trade since almost all of their position players are controllable for at least a few more seasons? Or maybe James Wood if they prefer to get more out of their CF?
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Marlins Notes: Fairbanks, Mullins, Matz, Marsee
The Marlins entered the offseason targeting late-inning relief help. They haven’t come away with anything thus far, as they’ve evidently balked at the prices in a free agent bullpen market that has moved quickly.
Pete Fairbanks is one player known to be on their radar. He’s a logical fit as a proven closer who has ties to president of baseball operations Peter Bendix from their time in Tampa Bay. However, Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral of Fish On First wrote this week that Fairbanks’ market is likely to push beyond Miami’s comfort zone.
Fairbanks hit free agency when the Rays bought out his $11MM club option. They were unable to find trade interest at that price point within the first few days of the offseason. Fairbanks could command a two-year contract at a slightly lesser annual sum. His strikeout rates have dropped closer to league average over the past couple seasons, but he’s coming off a 2.83 ERA with 27 saves across 60 1/3 innings. Fairbanks still sits above 97 MPH and got swinging strikes on nearly 13% of his offerings this year. He fits alongside the likes of Emilio Pagán and Kyle Finnegan, who commanded two-year contracts in the $19-20MM range.
The Fish have yet to sign a free agent this offseason. They’ve shown interest in a few players who have wound up elsewhere, including a pair who are headed to Bendix’s old team. Azout noted that the Marlins were involved in the market for swingman Steven Matz before he agreed to a two-year, $15MM contract with the Rays. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported last week that the Marlins pursued Cedric Mullins prior to his $7MM deal to become Tampa Bay’s new center fielder.
Mullins would not have gotten everyday center field reps in Miami. Jakob Marsee is locked in there after an excellent half-season debut. The 24-year-old hit .292/.363/.478 with five home runs in his first 234 big league plate appearances. His .357 average on balls in play is due for some amount of regression, but he showed excellent plate discipline and contact skills with solid batted ball metrics. Marsee also graded as a slightly above-average defender in 475 innings.
The Marlins could use a veteran outfielder in a corner. Kyle Stowers can play either corner spot, which gives them some flexibility in that regard. Mullins has a below-average arm and would likely have been ticketed for left field, pushing Stowers to right. Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez and Dane Myers would be in the mix for playing time right now. They’re all in their mid-late 20s and have struck out at such alarming rates in the upper minors that it’s unlikely any of them is a long-term regular.
Miami is reportedly willing to spend more than usual this offseason, though they’ve yet to put that into action. They kicked around extension numbers with Stowers but reportedly faced an approximate $50MM divide. They’re planning to reengage with young starter Eury Pérez on a potential long-term deal after beginning those conversations in Spring Training.
Marsee stands as another logical candidate after his impressive first few months. Fish On First reports that there’s some interest on both sides about a long-term deal, though the team has yet to make an offer. Extension conversations frequently pick up later in the offseason and into Spring Training, so there’s plenty of time.
Hitters who sign extensions within their first year of MLB service are often top-tier prospects. That’s not the case with Marsee. He was a sixth-round pick by San Diego who was generally viewed as the second best of the three prospects traded to Miami for Luis Arraez. (The centerpiece, former first-round pick Dillon Head, is coming off a .223/.334/.318 season in A-ball.) Marsee entered the 2025 season as the #12 prospect in the Miami organization, according to Baseball America. He didn’t appear on any Top 100 lists.
The closest recent comparison point is probably Ceddanne Rafaela, though even he’d been more highly regarded before his MLB debut than Marsee was. The Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $50MM guarantee with a club option for a ninth season. They’re very different players stylistically. Rafaela was an elite defensive outfielder whose extremely aggressive approach led to questions about the hit tool. Marsee isn’t as athletic but is a much more polished hitter who has had more big league success than Rafaela did at the time.
However, Rafaela had garnered some Top 100 fanfare and signed his deal in his age-23 season. Marsee turns 25 in June. The Fish are probably reluctant to put a $50MM offer on the table a couple months into his career. That’s reportedly close to what they offered Stowers, who is two years further along and is coming off an All-Star season. Marsee is under club control through his age-30 campaign.
Rays Have Discussed Pepiot, Baz In Ketel Marte Trade Conversations
The Rays are among a number of teams that have been tied to Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has consistently downplayed the chance of a deal coming together on their MVP-caliber second baseman, but he hasn’t slammed the door shut given the team’s need for starting pitching.
Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that conversations with the Rays have kicked around a framework that would send both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz to the desert. Piecoro writes that nothing is believed to be close on that front and the Rays are not necessarily any kind of frontrunner. Indeed, he adds that the Diamondbacks have had conversations with another team interested in Marte that would be built around a bigger-name starting pitcher.
Whether or not talks with Tampa Bay progress, the mention of multiple controllable starters hammers home the high asking price which the Diamondbacks have set. Pepiot landed in Tampa Bay as the centerpiece of the Tyler Glasnow return two offseasons ago. He’s the team leader with 297 2/3 innings pitched since the start of 2024.
The former third-round pick owns a 3.75 earned run average while striking out a little more than a quarter of opposing hitters. He’s a decent strike-thrower who sits around 95 MPH with his heater and has a plus changeup. Pepiot’s slider is a distant third offering, and the changeup has made him a reverse splits pitcher. He has held left-handed hitters to a .192/.287/.354 batting line with a near-28% strikeout rate over the past two seasons. Righties have hit .243/.303/.420 while punching out at a 23% clip.
Pepiot is unlikely to develop into an ace, but he’s an established mid-rotation starter who turned 28 in August. He has a little over three years of service time, so he’s under arbitration control through 2028. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.7MM salary. Teams place a premium on an affordable #3-type starter. The Rays presumably aren’t shopping Pepiot, but it’s a testament to Marte’s offensive impact that the righty would be on the table in those conversations.
Baz, 26, has also come up in trade talks with the Astros. The 6’3″ righty is a former top prospect who has yet to reach his upper mid-rotation ceiling. That’s partially due to some early-career injuries, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2023 season. He posted a 3.06 ERA across 14 starts when he returned in ’24. That earned him a spot in Kevin Cash’s rotation this year, but Baz had an up-and-down performance. He concluded with a 4.87 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That’s despite a solid 24.8% strikeout percentage and 11.6% swinging strike rate.
The pure upside might be higher with Baz than it is with Pepiot. He sits 97 MPH and gets above-average movement on an 85 MPH knuckle-curve and 90 MPH cutter. Baz has plus stuff and is a decent enough strike thrower. He has been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. He allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.
Baz also has between three and four service years and is eligible for arbitration through 2028. He’s projected for a $3.1MM salary. Teams are probably divided as to whether they’d prefer Pepiot’s stability or Baz’s raw stuff, but both pitchers have significant trade value. They’re two of the three returning Tampa Bay pitchers (alongside Drew Rasmussen) who topped 100 innings. The Rays are likely to give Steven Matz a starting opportunity, but they’d certainly need to backfill the rotation if they traded two starters. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched since 2023. Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour have limited track records.
The Diamondbacks would require a monster return built around MLB starting pitching to move Marte. He’s coming off a .283/.376/.517 showing with 28 home runs. Marte is the best second baseman in the league and is signed for a bargain $102.5MM over the next six seasons (the final of which is a player option year).
“I think it’s a risky deal when you’re talking about trading really, really good players at all,” Hazen told Piecoro. “It’s something that we have to at least listen to in our job. It’s not something that you really look forward to, necessarily, when you have the players that we do. But it’s also the reality of our team and where we are that I have to consider some things.”
Arizona agreed to terms with Michael Soroka on a one-year deal this week. He’ll be in the rotation alongside Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. (They’re unlikely to get Corbin Burnes back from Tommy John surgery before August.) Nelson was the only one of that trio who found much success this year. The D-Backs need to add another two starters and don’t have a ton of payroll space to address that via free agency. They’re also looking for bullpen help and could upgrade at third base or in the outfield.
While Marte is the best second baseman at least loosely available on the trade market, the Rays ironically have the second-best such option. Brandon Lowe is coming off a 31-homer season in which he hit .256/.307/.477 over 553 plate appearances. Lowe is entering the final season of his contract and is set to make $11.5MM. The Rays have reportedly gotten hits from the Pirates and Reds (surely among others) about his availability.
President of baseball operations Erik Neander touched on Lowe’s trade candidacy from the Winter Meetings (link via Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times). He called the two-time All-Star an “important, impactful player who provides power at a position that is hard to find.” Neander acknowledged the Rays’ history of shopping players whose control windows were closing but praised both Lowe and Yandy Díaz as longtime contributors.
“Our history is our history. We’ve made (trades) with players that are established, that are impactful contributors that as they get their way closer to free agency, we’ve made plenty of those decisions. But we’ve also made decisions the last few years to kind of continue to roll forward with these guys. We greatly appreciate them and are more than happy to ride in the next year and see what this team can do.”
Both clubs could go in a few different directions over the coming weeks. There’s no guarantee either will end up moving their star second baseman, but the trade market has yet to really pick up as most of the top free agent hitters continue weighing their options.