Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Dave Dombrowski
- How much has Kyle Schwarber raised his salary now? Does 4/140 keep him in Philly and away from FA? Does the uncertainty regarding Wheeler push me to make a strong offer to Ranger Suarez? And will there be enough left to resign JTR, the real rock of the pitching staff? Do you think that John Middleton will back a payroll approaching $400M?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I have to imagine 4/140 would get it done before he hits the market. Still don't see Philly going to 35M annually especially at their luxury tax status, but I do think he's got a shot at five years that could approach that guarantee
- DH who is soon to be 33 is a profile the market hates but Schwarber's pretty clearly in a different tier from the Santander/Teoscar group. You could point to Alonso's quiet market last year as a counterargument, but Schwarber's walk year is so much better than Alonso's 2024
- I don't think the Wheeler injury dramatically changes things on Ranger. Never seemed all that likely to me that they'd re-sign him for nine figures, even after trading Abel. I think they're just more likely to be in on an Adrian Houser type who can serve as a fifth starter or long man once Painter is in the rotation
Slick
- Are the Nationals looking at another five years of rebuilding? From top to bottom this team appears to be in disarray.
Anthony Franco
- I'm not as pessimistic on a core with Wood, Abrams, Gore, etc. but based on Steve's forthcoming Front Office post this week, I think he's more in your camp
- He's about to drop like 2000 words on this topic
Mariners
- What are your thoughts on the Robles suspension? Fair? Too long? Too short?
Anthony Franco
- Start at 10, drop to seven seems fine. I feel like Contreras should have been at that level as well though, so I guess you could argue it's inconsistent
Chris
- More likely to rebound in 2026: Braves or Orioles?
Anthony Franco
- Tough one. I think I'd take Baltimore. Atlanta's got more high-end talent coming back, especially on the pitching staff, but they're probably going to put a lot on Sale, Schwellenbach and López to stay healthy in a way that concerns me
- The O's have a lot of heavy lifting to do this offseason, especially in the bullpen, but I think they're a little more well equipped to navigate 162 with in-house depth
JeffyM82
- Bo Bichette 2025 total hits over/under Bo Bichette total free agent contract (millions). Where are you putting your money? Bo Currently has 169 hits with 28 games remaining.
Anthony Franco
- Ha yeah I'll take the hits. I like this one though, reasonable argument either way
-
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Red Sox To Promote Payton Tolle
The Red Sox will call up pitching prospect Payton Tolle to make his big league debut tomorrow, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’ll be a fantastic pitching matchup, as he goes against Paul Skenes in a series opener at Fenway Park. Skenes will coincidentally be matched against a pitcher making his MLB debut for the second straight outing, as the Rockies tabbed McCade Brown as his opponent last weekend.
It’s the latest step in a breakout season for Tolle. Boston signed the 6’6″ southpaw to a $2MM bonus after drafting him in the second round out of TCU last summer. They kept him at their complex in his draft year rather than assigning him to a minor league affiliate. That allowed them to manage his innings going into this year.
The Sox certainly didn’t expect Tolle would be in the big leagues a year later. He began this season in High-A, striking out 38% of opponents over 11 appearances. That earned him a move to Double-A in June. Tolle pitched his way past that level within six weeks, recording a 1.67 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 27 innings. He has been at Triple-A Worcester for all of three weeks.
Tolle hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down at the top minor league level. He has fanned 17 hitters with a pair of walks in his first 15 Triple-A frames. Opponents have swung through 14% of his offerings in his three starts. Tolle’s fastball has sat in the 95-96 MPH range. He also uses a low-90s cutter, a slider, curveball and changeup among a deep arsenal.
Along the way, Tolle has vaulted towards the top of the organization’s prospect rankings. He’s second in the system at Baseball America behind Marcelo Mayer. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him third among Sox prospects and 71st overall when he updated his Top 100 list shortly before the trade deadline. (Mayer had graduated from the FanGraphs list, where Tolle was behind Franklin Arias and Kyson Witherspoon.) Last week, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked Tolle as a top 35 overall prospect and had him second after Arias in the system.
While the 22-year-old has certainly impressed evaluators, the aggressive promotion is also related to Boston’s rotation woes. Walker Buehler pitched his way out of the starting five and is locked into a bullpen role for the rest of the season. Richard Fitts appeared to get the first opportunity to replace Buehler, but he came out of Monday’s game with arm discomfort. He’s on the 15-day injured list with arm neuritis. Swingman Cooper Criswell landed on the minor league injured list last week.
The Sox needed to promote a fifth starter. The decision came down to Tolle versus Kyle Harrison. The latter is already on the 40-man roster and seemed to be the favorite for the job. Harrison has still yet to get a look from the Sox since they acquired him as the headliner of the Rafael Devers return. He has a solid 3.65 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts, but he’s walked nearly 12% of opposing hitters with a league average 21.5% strikeout rate. Boston evidently feels Tolle gives them a better shot to win.
Dustin May had been lined up for Friday’s turn through the rotation. He’ll move back a day and take the ball against Johan Oviedo on Saturday. Lucas Giolito will pitch the series finale with Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet on turn for the first two games of next week’s series against the Guardians. Tolle would be lined up for the final game of that set if he gets a second start.
Boston will select his contract tomorrow. They can open a 40-man roster spot by moving Mayer to the 60-day injured list. He underwent season-ending wrist surgery earlier this month. They will need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher. Assuming they don’t want to designate Buehler for assignment, they’ll probably option southpaw Brennan Bernardino back to Triple-A. Teams will be able to carry a 14th pitcher beginning on September 1.
The Red Sox are now committed to carrying Tolle on the 40-man throughout the offseason. That’s the biggest roster consideration, as he would not have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Tolle will not reach 45 days on an MLB roster this year. He’ll remain a rookie going into next season, keeping open the possibility of earning the Sox a future draft pick if they carry him for a full service year in 2026. Tolle will certainly meet the prospect criteria to be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.
Spencer Turnbull Opts Out Of Cubs Deal
Spencer Turnbull was released from his minor league contract with the Cubs, as first reflected on the MiLB.com transaction log. Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register reports that the righty triggered an opt-out clause.
Turnbull sets out for a new opportunity a few days before the postseason roster cutoff. He’ll need to sign with a new team, at least on a minor league contract, by September 1 in order to be eligible for the playoffs. Turnbull will be a free agent again at the beginning of the offseason. He’ll presumably look to catch on with a contender seeking pitching depth.
Chicago signed Turnbull shortly after the All-Star Break. He took the ball six times with Triple-A Iowa but was tattooed for 26 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. He gave up at least five runs in each of his last three times out, including an eight-run appearance in 2 1/3 innings against the A’s affiliate on Wednesday. That obviously wasn’t going to get him on the radar for an MLB call, even for a Cubs team that placed Jameson Taillon back on the injured list yesterday.
Turnbull is making a prorated $1.265MM salary from the Blue Jays. He didn’t sign until early May after not finding a deal to his liking all winter. Toronto only gave him three big league appearances before cutting him loose. His terrible month in Iowa certainly hasn’t raised his stock. Still, Turnbull is only a year removed from pitching to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings for the Phillies. He shouldn’t have an issue finding another minor league job — either to finish this season or going into next spring.
Cardinals To Select Cesar Prieto
The Cardinals are calling up César Prieto, reports Francys Romero. They’ll select his contract onto the 40-man roster tomorrow. St. Louis has a pair of openings on the 40-man, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.
Prieto, a left-handed hitting infielder, gets his first big league opportunity at age 26. He didn’t begin his affiliated career until he was 22 years old. He’s a Cuba native who played four seasons in that nation’s top league before defecting while on an Olympic trip in 2021. He signed a $650K bonus with the Orioles and began his U.S. career with their High-A affiliate a year later.
The O’s traded Prieto to St. Louis as part of a three-player return for Jack Flaherty at the 2023 trade deadline. His prospect stock dropped between 2023-24 as he posted unspectacular numbers at Triple-A. Prieto has performed well in his third season at the top minor league level. He’s batting .295/.359/.448 with nine homers and 11 steals across 449 plate appearances.
Prieto’s calling card is his plus contact ability. He hasn’t struck out in more than 15.2% of his plate appearances at any minor league stop. He has fanned just 13.4% of the time this season. Prieto has a very aggressive offensive approach and often expands the strike zone. He’s not going to take many walks or hit for much power, but the bat-to-ball skills should allow him to hit for average. Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs ranked him the #25 prospect in the St. Louis system last month, projecting him as a utility infielder.
The Cardinals have used him at second base, third base and shortstop in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he’s a fringe defender who doesn’t have a huge arm. He probably fits best at the keystone but could see action throughout the infield. He would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason if the Cards didn’t add him to the 40-man roster. It appears they were planning to select his contract during the winter, so they’ll bring him up a bit ahead of time for his first exposure to big league pitching.
St. Louis is using Thomas Saggese, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman from right to left on the infield. Winn has played through a sore left knee for much of the second half. He acknowledged earlier this week that he’d probably benefit from rest but said he wanted to remain in the lineup in hope of a long shot playoff berth (relayed by Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). The Cardinals are 6.5 games back of the Mets with three teams to surpass in the Wild Card race. It’s not yet known if they’ll shut Winn down or simply swap Prieto in for one of Garrett Hampson or José Fermín on the bench.
A’s Release Luis Urias
The Athletics released infielder Luis Urías, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment on Monday. Urías has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment while collecting what remains of his $1.1MM salary, so a release was inevitable. The A’s preferred to give playing time to controllable infielders Zack Gelof, Darell Hernaiz and Brett Harris for the stretch run.
The 28-year-old Urías can now set out in search of a new opportunity. He’d need to sign somewhere by September 1, at least on a minor league deal, to be eligible for a postseason roster. Urías will be a free agent at the beginning of the offseason in either case, so he’ll presumably only draw interest from a contender that wants to strengthen its infield depth.
Urías got out to a decent start to the season. He hit four homers with a .245/.345/.490 showing through the end of April. He has an underwhelming .227/.309/.307 slash in 271 plate appearances since the beginning of May. Urías has sliced his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.6% clip, but he hasn’t been much more productive overall than he was between 2023-24. He rarely makes hard contact and hasn’t hit for much power since combining for 39 homers with the Brewers from 2021-22.
Defensive metrics grade Urías around league average at both second and third base. He’s a righty hitter who has generally been better against left-handed pitching, as one would expect. That hasn’t been the case this season, as he’s hitting .183 with one homer in 68 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. If he catches on with another team before year’s end, his signing club would pay him the prorated $760K league minimum.
Buddy Kennedy Elects Free Agency
Infielder Buddy Kennedy elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week when Kiké Hernández returned from injury.
Los Angeles claimed Kennedy off waivers from Toronto two weeks ago. That coincided with an IL placement for Max Muncy. He joined Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Hernández on the shelf. Kennedy provided an extra infielder alongside Miguel Rojas and rookie Alex Freeland between second and third base. He went 1-17 over seven games.
A former fifth-round pick of the Diamondbacks, Kennedy has played sporadically in parts of four big league seasons. He’s a .178/.271/.274 hitter in 181 career plate appearances. The 26-year-old has split time in Triple-A this year between the Philadelphia and Toronto systems. He has turned in a solid .268/.372/.408 showing in 77 combined games.
Kennedy will look for a minor league deal elsewhere. He’d need to be in another organization by September 1 to be eligible for a postseason roster. He’d be a long shot to get a playoff roster spot either way, of course, but it stands to reason a signing team would prefer that flexibility if they’re adding him as upper minors infield depth.
The Reds’ Newest Infield Question
It wasn’t long ago that the Reds seemed to have an infield surplus. That has changed quickly. The Jeimer Candelario signing was a bust. Jonathan India was traded to Kansas City. Noelvi Marte tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in Spring Training 2024. Matt McLain sustained significant shoulder and rib injuries and missed all of last year. First basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer regressed, with Encarnacion-Strand’s stock completely tanking when he underwent wrist surgery in July ’24.
Cincinnati has needed to turn to trade a few times. They acquired glove-first utilityman Santiago Espinal in Spring Training last year. Gavin Lux was brought in as a lefty-hitting utility piece last offseason. Lux has been an average hitter and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $3.325MM salary. Espinal hasn’t hit at all and will probably be non-tendered in his final arbitration season. Cincinnati went back to the trade market this summer, taking on the final four and a half years on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract to land him from the Pirates. He’s now the starting third baseman, moving Marte to what appears to a full-time corner outfield role.
Elly De La Cruz and Hayes should be settled on the left side of the infield. Neither spot on the right side is established. Steer shouldn’t be playing every day on a contender. That might also be true of McLain, whose return from injury has been a major disappointment.
The former first-round pick carries a .221/.299/.329 batting line in 120 games. McLain came out of the gate on fire, homering in three straight games within the season’s first weekend. He has eight home runs in nearly five months since then. He’s hitting .217/.295/.305 in 464 plate appearances since the beginning of April. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the ten least productive hitters in that time (as are Hayes and Espinal).
It hasn’t cost McLain much playing time. That’s in part because of their lack of alternatives. They’d presumably have been more willing to play Espinal if he’d been hitting any better. McLain has dropped to the bottom third of the lineup after hitting second for a good chunk of the season. He looked like a legitimate building block two seasons ago. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting after hitting 16 homers with a .290/.357/.507 slash in 89 games. Then came last year’s injury-ruined season and this year’s dramatic downturn.
Some of the regression was foreseeable. McLain was never going to repeat the .385 average on balls in play that he had as a rookie. The Reds presumably also expected some rust after the year off. His strikeout and walk profile hasn’t changed much, but he’s doing far less damage on contact. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more lazy fly balls.
There’s also no sign that McLain is turning things around as he gets further removed from the injuries. Excluding his four-day tear in March, he’s been a below-average hitter in every month except June. His numbers have bottomed out over the past few weeks. McLain is hitting .217 with one extra-base knock (a double) and 24 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances in August.
Cincinnati doesn’t have many other options for the final month of the season. The only real alternative would be to play Lux more frequently at second base to open DH at-bats for Miguel Andujar. There’s a defensive downgrade from McLain to Lux and questions about whether Andujar would continue to hit as well as he has if he plays every day rather than getting heavy usage against left-handed pitching. The front office will have a tougher decision on whether to look outside the organization in the offseason.
McLain turned 26 earlier this month. He’s under arbitration control for four more seasons. As recently as this spring, the Reds viewed him as a core piece. McLain told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer in April that the team approached with a preliminary extension framework before Opening Day. Talks didn’t get anywhere as both sides waited to see how McLain would perform after losing the ’24 season. It’s fair to say the Reds won’t be eager to revisit extension talks now, but it’s not known to what extent they might’ve soured on his long-term projection.
They have a few upper minors infielders who could push for playing time in 2026. Sal Stewart has hit 20 homers with a combined .309/.385/.528 slash between the top two minor league levels in his age-21 season. He’s a promising offensive player but faces questions from scouts about his position. Stewart has played mostly third base in the minors. He has started 15 games at second base this season after making 36 appearances there a year ago. Prospect evaluators consider him a below-average athlete, runner and defender. Do the Reds think he could be a viable if fringy second baseman, or is he more of an option to push Steer for first base reps?
There’s the opposite question with Edwin Arroyo. He’s a gifted defensive shortstop who may have a limited offensive ceiling. Arroyo lost all of 2024 to his own shoulder surgery. He has returned to put together a solid season in Double-A. He’s hitting .289/.351/.380 with good plate discipline metrics but only has three home runs. The Reds will put him on the 40-man roster this offseason, but he has yet to see any Triple-A action. Arroyo shouldn’t have any issue sliding over to second base defensively. He probably wouldn’t make a huge impact at the plate as a rookie.
Tyler Callihan made his MLB debut earlier this season. He broke his wrist crashing into the outfield wall while playing left field in his fourth MLB game. Callihan required season-ending surgery. He can compete for an Opening Day roster spot next spring and is viewed as a bat-first player who’s probably better suited for left field than second base.
The Reds probably don’t want to count on any of Stewart, Arroyo or Callihan out of the gate. They’ll need to decide whether to give McLain another shot or to add someone in free agency or trade. Gleyber Torres is the top free agent at the position. He might be attached to draft pick compensation as a qualifying offer candidate. Signing him would have echoes of the Mike Moustakas/Candelario deals that have flopped on the Reds in the past.
They could take a flier on bat-first utilityman Luis Rengifo. Trade options at the position include Brandon Lowe ($11.5MM club option), Ozzie Albies ($7MM club option), Luis García Jr. (likely $6-7MM arbitration salary), and Lenyn Sosa (pre-arbitration). India will probably be available in free agency with the Royals likely to non-tender him, but that’s only because he’s coming off a replacement level season with Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?
We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.
How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.
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Cubs To Place Jameson Taillon On Injured List
The Cubs are placing Jameson Taillon back on the 15-day injured list, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters (including Maddie Lee of The Chicago Sun-Times). Taillon departed his most recent start with left groin tightness. Javier Assad will be recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take his spot on the active roster.
Taillon just returned from a nearly two-month absence due to a right calf strain. This isn’t expected to be anywhere near as serious. Counsell said the Cubs believe it’ll be close to a minimal stint. They can backdate the placement to August 25, meaning he’ll be eligible to return on September 9. He’ll miss at least two turns through the rotation but should be back in plenty of time to vie for a spot on Chicago’s postseason roster.
The veteran righty has made 19 starts. Taillon carries a 4.15 ERA with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate. He’s throwing plenty of strikes but has allowed home runs at a career-worst clip. This is is the fourth straight season in which Taillon has struggled to miss bats, and his velocity has trended down over the course of his four-year free agent deal.
Taillon looks like a fifth starter at this stage of his career. The Cubs will head into October with questions about their pitching depth. Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd project as their top three arms for the playoff rotation as long as the Cubs don’t collapse in September. Assuming Michael Soroka will be limited to relief work if he’s able to make it back from a shoulder strain, Taillon and Colin Rea are the top options for a potential Game 4 postseason start.
Assad has lost most of the season to an oblique strain. He’s made three MLB starts since returning, allowing six runs across 14 innings. The Cubs have optioned him twice but recalled him shortly after on both occasions. Pitchers typically must spend 15 days on an optional assignment, but an exception is made if they’re replacing someone who goes on the injured list.
The Cubs have Horton and Imanaga to start the next two games. Assad will take the ball on Saturday at Coors Field. He’ll step into Taillon’s rotation spot for the time being. He’s a long shot to get much consideration for Chicago’s playoff roster — either in the rotation or long relief — but he should get at least two starts to try to make his case.
Orioles To Move To Six-Man Rotation
The Orioles will go to a six-man rotation next week, interim manager Tony Mansolino tells reporters (including Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). Tyler Wells made his final rehab start tonight to complete his return from May 2024 elbow surgery. Wells threw 6 1/3 frames of two-run ball on 90 pitches for Triple-A Norfolk.
Baltimore will reinstate Wells from the 60-day injured list next week. Active rosters expand on September 1, so the O’s can stick with an eight-man bullpen while running a six-man rotation. It’ll buy an extra day of rest for each of Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich and Dean Kremer. Bradish just returned from his own elbow procedure last night.
Wells, 31, flashed back-of-the-rotation ability before his injury. He had his best season in 2023. The righty turned in a career-low 3.64 earned run average across 118 2/3 innings. Wells fanned a quarter of opponents with a solid 7.2% walk rate. He surrendered almost two home runs per nine frames, however, and was the beneficiary of a depressed .200 batting average on balls in play.
It was a good enough showing for Wells to open the ’24 season in the rotation. He only made it through three starts before suffering the elbow injury that required UCL surgery. It wound up costing him the better part of two seasons. Wells will probably make four starts to finish the season. That should position him for a normal offseason as he prepares to battle for a rotation spot next spring. Wells is making $2.075MM this season; he’ll be paid a similar amount next year in his second trip through arbitration. He’s controllable through 2027.
