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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL East

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MLBTR wraps our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL East. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central, AL Central, NL East

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the winter. He’s making $9MM this season and has a matching club option or a $1MM buyout for 2026. Kittredge was supposed to be a key setup man in front of Félix Bautista, but he suffered a left knee injury early in camp and required a debridement surgery. He began a rehab stint at High-A Aberdeen on Sunday. While there’s plenty of time for Kittredge to turn things around, it hasn’t been the start to his O’s tenure that he envisioned.

Laureano, who was non-tendered by the Braves, signed a $4MM contract with Baltimore in February. That came with a $6.5MM team option without a buyout, giving the Orioles an extra season of club control. Injuries to Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser have pressed him into everyday work, mostly in left field. He hasn’t provided much through his first 24 games. Laureano is hitting .185 with a .237 on-base percentage through 59 plate appearances. He has hit a trio of home runs but struck out 18 times while drawing only four walks. Laureano has generally been a below-average hitter since being suspended following a positive PED test in 2021. He’ll need much better production over the next few months for the Orioles to exercise the option.

Boston Red Sox

Buehler signed a one-year, $21.05MM free agent deal to match the price of the qualifying offer — which the Dodgers had declined to issue when he hit the market. It’s a relatively expensive pillow contract. Buehler was coming off a dismal regular season, in which he’d posted a 5.38 ERA with a career-worst 18.6% strikeout rate over 16 starts. He finished his Dodger tenure on a high note, though, closing out the World Series while pitching to a 3.60 earned run average in 15 playoff innings.

An ace-caliber pitcher early in his career, Buehler hasn’t looked the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in August 2022. His stint in Boston has gotten out to a shaky start. While his 4.28 ERA through 33 2/3 innings is serviceable, he’s striking out just 20.7% of opponents while averaging a personal-low 93.5 MPH on his fastball. Shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list last week. The mutual option was always an accounting measure designed to push the $3MM buyout to the end of the year rather than disbursing it throughout the season as salary. The team seems likelier to decline its end than the pitcher does.

Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He negotiated an opt-out clause after the first season and hoped to retest the market after one strong year. Instead, Giolito’s elbow gave out during Spring Training and he required UCL surgery that cost him the entire season. The veteran righty made the easy decision to stick around for year two.

By exercising his player option, Giolito unlocked a 2026 option for the team. It’s valued at $14MM and comes with a $1.5MM buyout. If Giolito pitches 140 innings this year, it’d convert to a $19MM mutual option (still with the $1.5MM buyout). That’d give him a chance to test free agency if he wants. Giolito has an uphill battle to 140 frames. A hamstring strain cost him the first month of the season. He finally made his team debut last week, working six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against Toronto. The Rangers tagged him for six runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 frames tonight.

The Red Sox added Hendriks on a two-year, $10MM deal over the 2023-24 offseason. They knew they wouldn’t get much in year one, as Hendriks had undergone Tommy John surgery the prior August. He attempted to make a late-season return last year but was shut down after a minor flare-up of elbow discomfort. Elbow inflammation shelved him for a couple weeks to begin this season, though he made his team debut in mid-April.

Hendriks allowed two runs on three hits in one inning during his first appearance. He has rattled off five straight scoreless outings since then, albeit with four walks in five frames. His 95 MPH average fastball is solid but below the 97-98 range at which he sat during his elite seasons with the White Sox.

Note: Jarren Duran’s arbitration deal contains a ’26 club option with an $8MM base salary. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the Sox decline the option.

New York Yankees

  • Tim Hill, LHP ($3MM club option, $350K buyout)

Hill finished last season with the Yankees after being released by the White Sox in June. He’d allowed nearly six earned runs per nine with Chicago but managed a tidy 2.05 ERA over 44 frames for New York. He’s out to a similarly productive start to the ’25 season. Hill has surrendered five runs through 17 1/3 innings (2.60 ERA).

While the soft-tossing lefty has managed just 11 strikeouts, his game has always been built around ground-balls. He’s getting grounders at a massive 81.6% clip thus far. Only nine of the 40 batted balls he’s allowed have been hit into the air. It’s easily the highest grounder rate in the majors. The Yankees value this skillset as much as any team, and the $2.65MM option decision is a drop in the bucket for them.

Loáisiga is still working back from last April’s elbow surgery. The righty has generally been a productive reliever when healthy, but he’s only once managed even 50 MLB innings in a season. He’s on a rehab stint with Low-A Tampa and will need another few weeks before he’s built into MLB game shape. Loáisiga is making $5MM this season. The option has a matching base value and could climb by another $500K if the Yankees exercise it. He’d earn $100K each at reaching 50, 55, 60, 65 and 70 innings in 2026.

Tampa Bay Rays

Fairbanks is in the final guaranteed season of the three-year, $12MM extension that he signed before the 2023 campaign. That includes a $1MM buyout on a club option that comes with a $7MM base value. That’s a bargain for a quality high-leverage reliever, but the deal includes various escalators that could push the option price above $12MM.

The option value would climb by $500K if he gets to 125 combined appearances between 2023-25 and another $1MM apiece at 135, 150 and 165 combined outings. Fairbanks made it into 95 games over the first two seasons. He’d trigger the first $500K escalator at just 30 appearances this year and would max it out if he makes it into 70 games. He can boost the option price by another $2MM based on this year’s games finished total: $500K apiece at 25, 30, 35 and 40.

Fairbanks has never reached 50 appearances in a season because of various injuries, but he’s already at 14 games through this season’s first six weeks. Fairbanks has finished 11 of those contests while working as Kevin Cash’s primary closer. He has recorded 13 strikeouts against six walks while allowing three runs over 13 1/3 innings. The option price should remain solid value, though the escalators might eventually push it to an area where Tampa Bay would rather explore deadline or offseason trades rather than having a reliever projecting as one of the highest-paid players on the roster.

Jansen seemed to be pulling away from the rest of a weak free agent catching class early last season. His production tanked from June onwards, leaving him to sign an $8.5MM pillow contract with Tampa Bay. He’s making an $8MM salary and will collect a $500K buyout on a $12MM mutual option at year’s end. Last summer’s offensive drought has carried into 2025. Jansen has only one home run with a .147/.301/.221 batting line through 83 plate appearances. He remains a very patient hitter, but the Rays would have an easy decision to decline their end of the option if he doesn’t find the double-digit home run power he showed during his best seasons in Toronto.

Lowe has had a rare extended run with a Tampa Bay team that is almost always willing to trade any player. He’s in his eighth big league season and in year seven of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. Lowe collected $24MM for what would have been his standard six seasons of team control. The Rays exercised a $10.5MM option for this year and can retain him once more at an $11.5MM price. It’s an $11MM decision after accounting for the $500K buyout.

While injuries have been a recurring issue, Lowe has been one of the better offensive middle infielders in the sport when healthy. His 39-homer season in 2021 is an outlier, but he has tallied 21 longballs in each of the past two seasons. He’s out to a much slower start this year, batting .203/.258/.305 with four homers across 128 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics are still solid, but his career-worst 20.1% swinging strike rate is the fifth-highest among hitters with at least 50 PAs.

This one can still go a few different ways. If Lowe hits like this all season, he’d be bought out. If he finds something like his 2023-24 form (.238/.319/.458), then $11MM is reasonable. It’d keep him as one of Tampa Bay’s highest-paid players, though, so there’s a decent chance he’ll be traded at some point this year. The 16-18 Rays look like fringe Wild Card contenders for a second consecutive year. They could again try to walk the line between buying and selling come deadline season.

The Rays signed Waguespack to a restructured deal early last offseason. He’s making $1.3MM this season and has a $1.5MM club option for next year. That’d escalate to $2MM if he reaches 20 “points” this season. Waguespack would receive one point for each MLB relief appearance and two points per big league start. He has spent the ’25 season to date on optional assignment to Triple-A Durham.

Working as a pure reliever for the Bulls, Waguespack has reeled off 14 innings of two-run ball. He has fanned 15 hitters against three walks while getting ground-balls at a lofty 60% clip. It hasn’t earned him a major league call yet, but he should be up before too much longer if he keeps performing at that level. Waguespack spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan. He made four MLB appearances with Tampa Bay last year but lost a good portion of the season to a rotator cuff injury.

Note: Taylor Walls’ arbitration deal contains a ’26 club option with a $2.45MM base salary. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the Rays decline the option.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • None

Rays Unlikely To Move Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe

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The Rays entered the offseason likely to shed some payroll via trades of veteran players — a frequent reality for the budget-crunched Tampa Bay club — which prompted many (MLBTR included) to speculate on the possibility of trading infielders Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe. The Rays are teeming with young infield options, and both players are set to earn eight-figure salaries in 2025. However, teams that have spoken to the Rays about Diaz and Lowe have been given the impression that Tampa Bay is likely to hold onto both players for the start of the upcoming season, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic implies that the Rays aren’t keen on subtracting from the offense at all between now and Opening Day.

Tampa Bay has indeed shed some notable salary this winter, but it’s come in the form of trades and non-tenders. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs and his $10.5MM salary in each of the next two seasons went to the A’s in exchange for flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle, a pair of minor leaguers, and the Athletics’ Competitive Balance selection in the upcoming 2025 draft. Jose Siri (projected $2.3MM salary) was traded to the Mets in exchange for reliever Eric Orze. Nearly $10MM of additional projected salary was shed when the team non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson and lefties Colin Poche, Tyler Alexander and Richard Lovelady.

That collection of cost-cutting maneuvers trimmed $22-23MM from next year’s books. The only salary of note the Rays have added in place of those departures is the $8.5MM guaranteed to catcher Danny Jansen, who signed with Tampa Bay in mid-December. RosterResource currently projects the Rays for a $76MM payroll and about $104MM of luxury obligations — down from last year’s respective marks of $89MM and $115MM.

One of the motivations behind freeing up payroll space with trades of veterans would be to afford more at-bats to young players with little left to prove in Triple-A (e.g. Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead) while also creating flexibility to bring in other free agents of note. Circumstances well beyond the Rays’ control have hobbled any such efforts, however. The damage wrought on Tropicana Field by Hurricane Milton both left the Rays facing even more financial uncertainty than usual and also made it harder to lure free agents. The Rays will play their 2025 home games at a minor league facility — Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field, the Class-A home of the Yankees — which is going to reduce interest for plenty of players on the open market.

The Rays scored the second-fewest runs in MLB last year, with their collective 604 mark leading only the White Sox. Tampa Bay ranked 27th in the majors in batting average (.230), 24th in on-base percentage (.302), 29th in slugging percentage (.366) and 28th in home runs (147). Viewed through that lens, subtracting one or both of Diaz (.281/.341/.414, 120 wRC+) and Lowe (.244/.311/.473, 123 wRC+) would feel counterproductive — at least in a vacuum.

However, the Rays habitually trade quality players as their salaries rise and their club control dwindles. Their willingness to engage in such frequent roster churn and their ability to successfully identify quality long-term contributors in the return for such trades has become a hallmark of the organization’s success and led to near-perennial contention in a stacked AL East — despite bottom-of-the-barrel payroll numbers. Diaz is earning $10MM this coming season and has a $12MM club option (no buyout) in 2026. Lowe will be paid $10.5MM this year and has an $11.5MM club option in 2026 ($500K buyout). Both are free agents in the 2026-27 offseason.

The dwindling club control on both players will make them prime trade candidates this summer if things don’t go well for the Rays or if Tampa Bay feels their production can be replaced by turning their respective positions over to younger options. The Rays aren’t the type of club to be shy about dealing solid contributors from the roster even in the midst of contending seasons.

With regard to the 2025 roster, however, the hope will ostensibly be for inexperienced players like Aranda and third baseman Junior Caminero to make strides at the plate, while other young players like Josh Lowe and Christopher Morel hopefully rebound at the dish. Both had strong showings in 2023 before wilting in 2024. Adding Jansen should be an upgrade to a catching corps that produced disastrous results at the plate in 2024 — even if the longtime Blue Jays backstop can’t recover from his own 2024 struggles with the bat. Jansen hit just .206/.308/.348 in 328 plate appearances last year, but even that would be an upgrade over the woeful .194/.272/.291 output from Tampa Bay backstops in 2024. And, if Jansen can rediscover the .237/.317/.487 form he displayed from 2021-23, it’d be a massive boon for the Rays.

Time will tell just how the Rays’ offense recovers — or fails to recover — from last year’s doldrums. Trades can never be expressly ruled out for a club like the Rays, but for the time being, it seems they’ll hang onto the veteran bats they have and reassess their trade candidacy this summer. Others on the roster (e.g. Pete Fairbanks, Zack Littell) have also come up in trade rumblings this winter, but there’s been some recent cold water thrown on that pair being available as well.

Trade Candidate: Brandon Lowe

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When Brandon Lowe was healthy in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led primary second basemen in home runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he has missed significant time with various injuries in each of the three years since. When he takes the field, however, Lowe is still a highly productive player. He launched 21 homers in 107 games this past season while producing a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked in the 85th percentile of major league hitters.

Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.

Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.

Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.

Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.

It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.

As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.

So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Exercise Club Option On Brandon Lowe

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The Rays announced that they have exercised their club option on infielder Brandon Lowe. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news on X prior to the official announcement. The club could have given Lowe a $1MM buyout and sent him to free agency but have instead locked in his $10.5MM salary for the upcoming season.

There wasn’t much suspense with this decision. Lowe has hit .245/.330/.482 in his career for a 126 wRC+. That includes a .244/.311/.473 line in 2024 for a 123 wRC+.

He has mostly played second base in his career but has also spent some time at first base and in the outfield corners. He’s not considered especially strong at any of those spots but the versatility is still useful. He has missed plenty of time due to injuries in his career, only once getting into 110 games in a season, but his production has been strong whenever he’s been out there.

Back in March of 2019, when Lowe had just 43 MLB games on his ledger, he and the Rays agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension. The Rays are undoubtedly happy with their return on that investment, given Lowe’s performance.

They have triggered the club option to keep Lowe around for 2025 and his contract has another club option for 2026. He can be retained for that season at a rate of $11.5MM with a $500K buyout.

The question now is if the Rays will hold him or trade him. The franchise often trades players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, which applies to Lowe.

According to RosterResource, the projected 2025 payroll is fairly similar to what they paid in 2024. A few non-tenders of their arbitration-eligible players could give them some breathing space but they are also facing the uncertainty of their stadium situation. With Tropicana Field badly damaged by Hurricane Milton, it’s possible that the club has to spend the upcoming season or seasons as nomads. That could have financial implications in terms of ticket sales, refunds, repairs and so on.

Even if that situation is largely resolved by insurance or other means, the Rays normally keep payroll down by trading players in this situation for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lowe’s name pops up in trade rumors this winter.

AL East Notes: Refsnyder, Bichette, Lowe, Coulombe, Trevino

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Rob Refsnyder turns 34 next March, and the utilityman is considering calling it a career after the 2024 season comes to an end.  Speaking with Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, Refsnyder said he is “undecided” about returning for what would be his tenth MLB season, and was even thinking about retirement even before he joined the Red Sox during the 2021-22 offseason.  Once this year is over, Refsnyder said he’ll “take it step by step from there and decide what I do….You can still make a big impact not being in a uniform and it’s a lot easier for your family and their schedule.”

As per the terms of the contract extension Refsnyder signed in June 2023, the Sox hold a $2MM club option ($150K) on his services for 2025.  This option looks like a lock to be exercised if Refsnyder wishes to keep playing, as he has an excellent .298/.384/.472 slash line over 251 plate appearances in part-time duty for the Red Sox this season.  Still, Refsnyder is eager to spend more time with his family, and is perhaps keen to start working towards his longer-term goal of working in a front office.

Other items from around the AL East…

  • Bue Jays manager John Schneider gave MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters an update on Bo Bichette, noting that the shortstop has started to increase baseball activities while working out at the Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin.  A timeline isn’t yet in place this early in Bichette’s recovery from a right calf strain, as the club will monitor his progress in the coming days or weeks before deciding on a possible rehab assignment.   Bichette suffered the calf strain on July 19 in Toronto’s 5-4 loss to the Tigers, continuing an all-around disastrous season that has seen Bichette bat only .223/.276/.321 over 330 plate appearances.  The former All-Star’s struggles are one of several reasons why the Blue Jays are out of the playoff race, and if Bichette isn’t showing progress in relatively short order, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jays just shut him down for the remainder of the season.
  • 2024 is the last guaranteed season of the six-year, $24MM extension Brandon Lowe signed with the Rays prior to Opening Day 2019, but Tampa still has a pair of club options ($10.5MM with a $1MM buyout for 2025, $11.5MM for 2026 with a $500K buyout) covering Lowe’s immediate future.  “Whether they pick up the option or they don’t, I feel like I’m putting myself in a good position to still be on a team next year,” Lowe told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, but Lowe noted that playing with the Rays “is all I know.  I like it here.  My friends are here.  We have a house here.  It’s comfortable.  I don’t know anything else.  I know this.”  Given how the Rays dealt a number of higher-priced veterans at the deadline, Topkin figures that Lowe’s continued presence on the roster means that the team will exercise the 2025 option and keep Lowe in Tampa Bay for an eighth season.  Lowe is more than doing his part at the plate to sway the Rays’ mind, as he is hitting .248/.330/.488 with 14 homers over 282 PA.
  • Danny Coulombe is “on track” in his rehab process and is aiming to return in late September, the Orioles left-hander told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.  Coulombe is on the 60-day IL after undergoing surgery in June to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.  While he is still a few weeks away from getting onto a mound, Coulombe is up to throwing from 90 feet in games of catch.  The Orioles’ bullpen has struggled badly in August, leaving Baltimore in even greater need for whatever the ace setup man can provide whenever he is able to return to action.
  • The Yankees activated catcher Jose Trevino from the 10-day injured list on Friday, and Carlos Narvaez was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Yesterday’s game marked Trevino’s first action since a left quad strain forced him out of the Yankees’ 4-1 win over the Orioles on July 12.  Trevino figures to resume his catching platoon with Austin Wells, though Wells’ hot bat over the last month might have earned him a larger share of the playing time.

How Will The Rays Approach The Deadline?

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The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.

While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.

With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.

All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.

There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.

Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.

Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.

While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.

The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.

Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.

Rays Place Zach Eflin On Injured List

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The Rays announced a few transactions before this evening’s game against the Red Sox. Zach Eflin landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, with lower back inflammation. Brandon Lowe is back from the 10-day IL to take the vacated roster spot. Tampa Bay also optioned reliever Manuel Rodríguez to Triple-A Durham to open a bullpen spot for Richard Lovelady, who has joined the team after being acquired from the Cubs on Saturday.

Eflin has turned in solid results in 10 turns through the rotation. The right-hander is averaging just under six innings per start and has worked to a 4.12 earned run average. While his 17.9% strikeout rate is on track to be his lowest since 2017, he has compensated by essentially never handing out free passes. Eflin has only walked four batters all season, a 1.6% rate that is the lowest among all pitchers with 50+ innings.

The 30-year-old has been one of Tampa Bay’s more valuable pitchers this year, although his performance is a step down from last year’s work. Eflin had a brilliant first season in St. Petersburg, turning in 177 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball to earn a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. He did lose a couple weeks early in the ’23 campaign to lower back tightness, though.

Eflin told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) that this year’s back issue feels similar to last season’s minor injury. Eflin suggested he could be back in around two weeks, while manager Kevin Cash indicated it was likely to be a 2-4 week absence. Tampa Bay has off days on Thursday and next Monday, so they could function with a four-man starting staff of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Tyler Alexander into next week.

Lowe returns after a nearly six-week absence due to an oblique strain. The second baseman is in the cleanup spot against Tanner Houck tonight. Since Lowe landed on the IL, the Rays have rotated Curtis Mead, Amed Rosario and Richie Palacios through the keystone. Mead struggled enough that he has since been optioned to Triple-A. Palacios and Rosario have each hit well in their first seasons in Tampa Bay. They’re each capable of playing multiple positions and should still see fairly regular playing time around the diamond.

In other injury news, the Rays sent Jeffrey Springs to the Florida Complex League on a rehab assignment. The left-hander threw one inning this afternoon in his first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. Pitchers are typically allotted 30 days on a rehab stint, but returnees from Tommy John are usually allowed more than a month to build back into game shape. Springs could be ready for MLB action by the second half of June.

Rays Notes: Lowe, Pepiot, Poche, Devenski

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The Rays are close to getting a major piece of their lineup back from the injured list, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that club manager Kevin Cash told reporters that Brandon Lowe is restarting his rehab assignment this weekend and could return to the big league roster as soon as Monday if all goes well in his final rehab outings.

Lowe made it into just eight games this season before being sidelined by an oblique injury but has been one of the club’s most reliable hitters since he made his debut back in 2018, as evidenced by the career .245/.334/.484 slash line he carried into the 2024 campaign. That includes two monster seasons in 2020 and 2021 that saw him earn downballot MVP consideration, but he’s remained a valuable hitter in recent years even as he’s not regained that elite peak offensive form; in 2023, the then-28-year-old slashed a solid .231/.328/.443 with 21 homers.

The Rays are surely hoping that Lowe can provide the club with a spark offensively, as the AL’s best offense from 2023 has scuffled a bit in 2024. They’ve posted a collective wRC+ of just 101 this year, down 17 points from last year and good for just 14th in the majors to this point in the year. Those relative struggles have been thanks primarily to down seasons from key contributors like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena to this point in the season. Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have filled in admirably for Lowe in his absence, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays look to work both players into the lineup on a semi-regular basis even upon Lowe’s return.

Also nearing a return from the shelf is right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has been on the shelf since May 8 after being struck by in the leg by a comebacker. Pepiot’s return will be greatly appreciated for the Rays, as he’s pitched to a strong 3.68 ERA and 3.64 FIP through seven starts with the Rays in his first season as a regular in the rotation. Prior to being swapped to the Rays this past winter in the Tyler Glasnow deal, Pepiot had shown flashes of his impressive ability with the Dodgers, for whom he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings split between the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

In Pepiot’s absence, the Rays have relied on Taj Bradley and Tyler Alexander to fill out the club’s rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Zack Littell. Bradley has looked excellent in his two starts since being activated, with a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 11 frames. Alexander, on the other hand, has generally struggled while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen with the Rays but carried a perfect game into the eighth innings of his most recent start against the Blue Jays, ultimately throwing 7 1/3 innings of three-run ball on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Not all the injury news has been positive for the Rays, however. Topkin relays that Cash indicated to reporters today that the Rays still have no clear timeline for return regarding left-hander Colin Poche, who has been on the shelf for nearly a month now due to mid-back tightness. The 30-year-old southpaw was one of Tampa’s most important relievers last year as he pitched to a sterling 2.23 ERA with a 3.34 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 60 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, he struggled badly this season in ten appearances prior to being placed on the injured list, as he allowed seven runs in 9 1/3 frames on 12 hits and three walks while striking out six. Poche’s uncertain return date, according to Cash, contributed to the club’s decision to acquire left-hander Richard Lovelady from the Cubs earlier today in exchange for southpaw Jeff Belge.

While Poche appears to be nowhere near a return, the same isn’t true of veteran right-hander Chris Devenski, who has been on the shelf since late April due to a bout of knee tendinitis. Topkin notes that the veteran right-hander has begun a rehab assignment at Triple-A, though he notes that according to Cash the righty will need “at least” one more rehab appearance before the club considers bringing him back up to the big leagues. Cash also indicated that the Rays have not yet decided whether they’ll have Devenski take a longer rehab assignment in order to stretch him out for multi-inning relief or simply promote him to the majors as soon as he’s ready to contribute in shorter bursts. Devenski pitched to largely average results between the Angels and Rays last year, with a 4.46 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work despite a solid 3.96 FIP.

Rays Place Brandon Lowe On Injured List

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April 12: The Rays have now made it official. They announced that Lowe has been placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to April 9, with a right oblique strain. Infielder/outfielder Niko Goodrum has been recalled as the corresponding move.

April 10: The Rays will place second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The veteran infielder was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right oblique after undergoing an MRI this morning.

Lowe missed a couple games last week after experiencing some discomfort in his left side. The current issue is seemingly unrelated, as he suffered the oblique strain on his right side while taking warm-up swings yesterday. Lowe last played on April 7, so the Rays will be able to backdate the IL stint to Monday.

That’s probably immaterial, as oblique strains typically lead to multi-week absences. A Grade 1 strain is the lowest severity, but any oblique issue is going to affect a hitter’s ability to rotate through his swing. While this is the first time that Lowe has been sidelined by an oblique injury, he has spent a fair bit of time on the IL in recent years.

Back inflammation and a season-ending knee fracture shelved him in 2023. A stress reaction in his back had led to an extended absence in the previous season. He has also had IL stints for a triceps contusion and a bone bruise in his lower leg within the past five years. Lowe has only reached 450 MLB plate appearances in a season once, connecting on 39 homers over 149 games back in 2021.

Around the injuries, the Maryland product has been one of the game’s top offensive second basemen. Lowe has turned in above-average rate production in every year of his career by measure of wRC+. He hit 21 homers with a .231/.328/.443 slash line over 436 trips to the dish last season. Lowe was out to a slow start this year, collecting just five hits in his first 27 at-bats.

Lowe will join Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe and Jonny DeLuca as position players on the injured list. Curtis Mead has gotten the nod at the keystone in each of the last three games. He’ll probably assume the bulk of the playing time in Lowe’s absence. Amed Rosario has plenty of middle infield experience and is on hand as an option off the bench, although the Rays have deployed him mostly in right field in the early going.

Rays Select Raimel Tapia; Place Brandon Lowe, Jason Adam On IL

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12:46PM: The Rays also placed Jason Adam on the 15-day IL with a left oblique strain, and called righty Chris Devenski up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Adam’s placement was expected after he left yesterday’s game due to injury, and Friday’s appearance was his first since returning from a three-week IL stint with another injury to his left oblique.

11:17AM: As reported yesterday, Brandon Lowe will miss 4-6 weeks of action after suffering a right kneecap fracture.  The Rays officially placed Lowe on the 10-day injured list today, and selected the contract of outfielder Raimel Tapia from Triple-A Durham.  To create a 40-man roster spot for Tapia, Tampa Bay called up Calvin Faucher from Triple-A and placed him on the 60-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis.

Assuming he gets into a game with the Rays, it will be Tapia’s third different MLB team of the 2023 season, and his fifth club in less than two years after playing with the Rockies in 2021 and the Blue Jays in 2022.  Tapia signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox during the winter and ended up appearing in 39 games for Boston before being released in June.  He signed a big league deal with the Brewers a couple of days later, and played in 20 games before Milwaukee designated Tapia for assignment and subsequently released him.

Overall, Tapia has hit .230/.308/.338 over 158 combined plate appearances with the Red Sox and Brewers this season, as well as a .269/.371/.414 slash line in 124 PA with Durham since the Rays signed the outfielder to a minors contract in early August.

Tapia has a decent .273 career batting average in 2016 career PA in the majors, albeit without much on-base or power numbers, and not much pop to show all of the contact he makes.  Known as an excellent baserunner, Tapia’s speed has helped him beat out some grounders to the tune of a .328 career BABIP, but is more known for being a fourth-outfielder type who can play all three positions in a pinch (though primarily a corner outfielder) and provide bench depth as a pinch-runner.

The left-handed hitting Tapia’s numbers aren’t much better against right-handed pitching than they are against southpaws, but he’ll at least provide Tampa Bay with some balance within their mostly right-handed hitting outfield group.  Randy Arozarena also left Friday’s game due to quad tightness, so with Tapia’s selection, the Rays might be looking to bolster their outfield ranks if Arozarena needs a couple of days off or possibly even an IL stint.

Faucher hasn’t pitched since tossing two-thirds of an inning for Durham on August 13.  His move to the 60-day IL is basically just procedural to open up a 40-man spot, and he’ll at least get some MLB service time and a minimum salary for being shifted to the big league version of the injured list.  The righty also missed a chunk of time earlier this season due to right elbow inflammation, and has a 7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2023.

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