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Could The Rays Still Move A Starting Pitcher?

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The Rays entered the offseason with at least seven rotation-caliber arms on the roster. Each of Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Ryan Pepiot has had success in a big league rotation, though injuries have hobbled several of that group in recent years. Tampa Bay already thinned out that stock of arms (and, naturally, trimmed payroll) by shipping Springs and lefty Jacob Lopez to the A’s in a deal netting them righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters, and a Competitive Balance (Round A) draft pick in 2025.

The Rays now have “only” six starters with proven (to varying levels) track records in the majors. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that they’re still planning on a five-man rotation, however, adding that trading a starter in the late stages of spring training is “not out of the question.” At best, that very lightly leaves the door for a trade propped open. There’s nothing to strongly suggest the Rays are planning to deal from the rotation. Still, it’s nonetheless worth examining the team’s options if it comes to that point.

The veteran Littell would be the most obvious candidate to change hands. Tampa Bay moved the now-29-year-old righty from the bullpen to the rotation midway through the 2023 season, and the results have been better than anyone could’ve reasonably predicted. Littell solidified the staff in the second half of ’23 and pitched a career-high 156 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA over 29 starts last season. Since moving to a starting role after the Rays claimed him from the Red Sox, Littell has started 40 games and logged a combined 3.65 ERA with a lower-than-average 20.4% strikeout rate but a sensational 4.1% walk rate.

Each of the Rays’ other starting pitchers is signed or controlled via arbitration through at least the 2027 season. Littell is a free agent following the 2025 campaign. He’s being paid a reasonable $5.72MM. He’s not an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but based on how he’s fared since July 2023, the right-hander could step into the third, fourth or fifth spot in most big league rotations.

Trading anyone from the rest of the group is tougher to envision. McClanahan has pitched at a Cy Young level when healthy but missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s controlled through 2027. Moving him right now would mean moving their most talented starter at a time when they’d be selling low. Rasmussen signed a two-year deal with a club option earlier this offseason. That bought out his remaining arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over his first free-agent year by way of that 2027 club option. Flipping him so soon after signing him to that deal is extremely difficult to envision; MLB teams simply don’t sign a player to extension and then trade him prior to ever appearing in their jersey under the terms of that new contract.

Baz and Pepiot are under club control through 2028. The former is earning $1.45MM in 2025, while the latter has yet to reach arbitration. (Baz did so as a Super Two player.) Bradley can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. We’re talking about the Rays, so the “never say never” caveat always applies to some extent, but acquiring four or five seasons of anyone from that bucket would very likely come at a steep price and require a team to part with MLB-ready bats that are both high-upside and controllable for a similar or even lengthier window.

Any team even contemplating a trade from the rotation at this stage of the calendar will be wary, of course. As we’ve seen throughout the league — most prominently up in the Bronx — perceived starting pitching “surpluses” can turn into deficits quickly this time of year. The Rays won’t move someone just to trim payroll, but they have depth even beyond the six arms mentioned here.

The previously mentioned Boyle, for instance, is having a nice spring and has experience in a big league rotation already. Following his acquisition in the Springs trade, president of baseball operations Erik Neander called the 6’7″ righty someone who has “the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation.” Boyle averages nearly 98 mph on his heater but has severe command issues that need to be ironed out. Righty Jacob Waguespack might be Triple-A bound but has 105 2/3 big league innings under his belt. Prospects Joe Rock and Ian Seymour both had some success in Triple-A last year (the latter in particular). There’s no such thing as “too much” rotation depth, but that group could further embolden the Rays to listen on Littell or another big league starter if a team makes a compelling offer.

Rays Place Ryan Pepiot On Injured List

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The Rays announced that right-hander Ryan Pepiot has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right knee infection, retroactive to July 19. Right-hander Tyler Zuber was recalled from Triple-A Durham in a corresponding move.

Pepiot was acquired from the Dodgers in the offseason trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to Los Angeles. His first season in Tampa has been a solid one so far, as he has made 17 starts with a 3.92 earned run average. He has punched out 26.7% of batters faced while keeping walks down to a reasonable clip of 8.8%.

It’s unclear exactly how or when he injured his knee. His last outing was the Sunday before the All-Star break and he tossed six shutout innings against the Guardians that day. Perhaps it was ailing him after that and the Rays used the break to see if it would improve but didn’t see much progress.

Regardless of how or when it happened, it will subtract from Tampa’s rotation depth, which has been an evolving story in recent weeks. They are not exactly sellers in the traditionally understood way, as they have been hovering around .500 this year. They are currently 49-49 and just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot.

However, they have had some pitchers coming back from lengthy injury layoffs, which has allowed them to make some starters available on the trade market. They recently flipped Aaron Civale to the Brewers and then quickly replaced him with Shane Baz, who had recovered from his Tommy John surgery.

That swap left the Rays with a rotation consisting of Pepiot, Baz, Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and Taj Bradley. With Jeffrey Springs also nearing a return from his own Tommy John surgery layoff, it seemed possible that Tampa could make yet another starter available without really harming their rotation depth in 2024 too much. Eflin and Littell seemed the most likely options there as each is set for free agency after 2025.

Perhaps this injury to Pepiot will change that calculus, but it’s still not clear how serious the injury is or how much time the Rays are expecting him to miss. In the meantime, they will have to replace Pepiot in the rotation, which could just involve reinstating Springs since the lefty has been rehabbing for a couple of months now. Rehab stints normally only last 30 days for pitchers but can be extended in the case of Tommy John surgery recoveries. If Springs isn’t ready, Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez are on the 40-man roster and could be recalled.

Rays Notes: Lowe, Pepiot, Poche, Devenski

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The Rays are close to getting a major piece of their lineup back from the injured list, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that club manager Kevin Cash told reporters that Brandon Lowe is restarting his rehab assignment this weekend and could return to the big league roster as soon as Monday if all goes well in his final rehab outings.

Lowe made it into just eight games this season before being sidelined by an oblique injury but has been one of the club’s most reliable hitters since he made his debut back in 2018, as evidenced by the career .245/.334/.484 slash line he carried into the 2024 campaign. That includes two monster seasons in 2020 and 2021 that saw him earn downballot MVP consideration, but he’s remained a valuable hitter in recent years even as he’s not regained that elite peak offensive form; in 2023, the then-28-year-old slashed a solid .231/.328/.443 with 21 homers.

The Rays are surely hoping that Lowe can provide the club with a spark offensively, as the AL’s best offense from 2023 has scuffled a bit in 2024. They’ve posted a collective wRC+ of just 101 this year, down 17 points from last year and good for just 14th in the majors to this point in the year. Those relative struggles have been thanks primarily to down seasons from key contributors like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena to this point in the season. Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have filled in admirably for Lowe in his absence, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays look to work both players into the lineup on a semi-regular basis even upon Lowe’s return.

Also nearing a return from the shelf is right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has been on the shelf since May 8 after being struck by in the leg by a comebacker. Pepiot’s return will be greatly appreciated for the Rays, as he’s pitched to a strong 3.68 ERA and 3.64 FIP through seven starts with the Rays in his first season as a regular in the rotation. Prior to being swapped to the Rays this past winter in the Tyler Glasnow deal, Pepiot had shown flashes of his impressive ability with the Dodgers, for whom he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings split between the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

In Pepiot’s absence, the Rays have relied on Taj Bradley and Tyler Alexander to fill out the club’s rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Zack Littell. Bradley has looked excellent in his two starts since being activated, with a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 11 frames. Alexander, on the other hand, has generally struggled while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen with the Rays but carried a perfect game into the eighth innings of his most recent start against the Blue Jays, ultimately throwing 7 1/3 innings of three-run ball on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Not all the injury news has been positive for the Rays, however. Topkin relays that Cash indicated to reporters today that the Rays still have no clear timeline for return regarding left-hander Colin Poche, who has been on the shelf for nearly a month now due to mid-back tightness. The 30-year-old southpaw was one of Tampa’s most important relievers last year as he pitched to a sterling 2.23 ERA with a 3.34 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 60 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, he struggled badly this season in ten appearances prior to being placed on the injured list, as he allowed seven runs in 9 1/3 frames on 12 hits and three walks while striking out six. Poche’s uncertain return date, according to Cash, contributed to the club’s decision to acquire left-hander Richard Lovelady from the Cubs earlier today in exchange for southpaw Jeff Belge.

While Poche appears to be nowhere near a return, the same isn’t true of veteran right-hander Chris Devenski, who has been on the shelf since late April due to a bout of knee tendinitis. Topkin notes that the veteran right-hander has begun a rehab assignment at Triple-A, though he notes that according to Cash the righty will need “at least” one more rehab appearance before the club considers bringing him back up to the big leagues. Cash also indicated that the Rays have not yet decided whether they’ll have Devenski take a longer rehab assignment in order to stretch him out for multi-inning relief or simply promote him to the majors as soon as he’s ready to contribute in shorter bursts. Devenski pitched to largely average results between the Angels and Rays last year, with a 4.46 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work despite a solid 3.96 FIP.

Rays Place Ryan Pepiot On Injured List, Reinstate Taj Bradley

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The Rays have made a swap of starters, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot going on the 15-day injured list, while Taj Bradley has been reinstated from the IL and will start Friday’s game. The moves were relayed on X by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Pepiot was hit on the leg by a comebacker on Sunday. A CT scan came back negative for any fractures but the club will give him some time on the injured list anyway, presumably to get over any soreness or swelling he’s currently experiencing.

It’s an unfortunate development for the Rays, as Pepiot was out to a strong start to the year. Acquired from the Dodgers as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade, Pepiot has made seven starts with a 3.68 earned run average. He has struck out 29.1% of batters faced while walking 7.8% of them.

Rotation health has been an ongoing concern in Tampa for quite a while. Each of Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are on the injured list due to undergoing elbow surgeries last year, or 2022 in the case of Baz. Jacob Waguespack is also on the IL due to a strained shoulder while Bradley had been there due to a strained pectoral.

Bradley now swapping in for Pepiot makes this a neutral move in a sense, though Bradley’s results haven’t been as strong as Pepiot’s thus far. He had a 5.59 ERA in 104 2/3 innings for the Rays last year. His 28% strikeout rate was strong and his 8.5% walk rate around average, but he allowed 23 home runs.

The rotation will now consists of Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Aaron Civale, Tyler Alexander and Bradley, at least until Pepiot heals up. Bradley still has options and could perhaps be sent back to the minors later in the year, though the club will have other choices available. Civale has a 6.14 ERA while Alexander is at 4.96 and both of them are optionable as well.

Dodgers Acquire Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot; Glasnow Signed To Contract Extension

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December 19: Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the extension is actually valued at $111,562,500 over four years, with Glasnow to make $30MM from 2025 to 2027. The player option in 2028 is valued at $21,562,500, slightly higher than previous reporting. Heyman’s framing also suggests that Glasnow will choose on his option first. If he turns it down, then the Dodgers will get to decide whether or not to trigger a $30MM club option.

December 16, 3:33pm: USAToday’s Bob Nightengale relays the full contract breakdown for Glasnow, reporting that the 2028 player option is worth $21.5MM. This accounts for the previously unexplained $1.5MM discrepancy between the reported contract breakdown and the Dodgers’ announced $136.5MM figure.

12:08pm: The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot, and $4MM in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.  News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension.  That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5MM.  Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.

As per the terms reported yesterday by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the new contract will see Glasnow earn $110MM in new money over the course of the 2025-28 seasons.  Glasnow was already slated to earn $25MM in 2024 according to the terms of his prior contract with the Rays, and the new deal with L.A. breaks down as $90MM in salary over the 2025-27 seasons, and then the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on Glasnow’s services for 2028.  If the team declines that option, Glasnow can exercise a $20MM player option for 2028.  Since Passan’s numbers only add up to $135MM rather than the Dodgers’ announced figure of $136.5MM, that extra $1.5MM has yet to be accounted for, possibly a signing bonus or a bit of extra guaranteed money on one of the years.

Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM mega-deal with the Dodgers from last week, Glasnow’s extension doesn’t contain any deferred money.  As such, it will be entirely portioned out onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax bills based on a $27.3MM average annual value over the next five seasons.  According to Roster Resource’s calculations, Los Angeles has an estimated luxury tax number of roughly $253.7MM for 202 — still under the $257MM secondary CBT tier, thanks to all of Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his tax-related AAV to $46MM per season.  Still, with a number of roster needs still be addressed, the Dodgers’ tax bill could certainly still approach or exceed the next penalty tier of $277MM between now and Opening Day.

Glasnow has been seen as a possible trade candidate basically since the moment he inked his previous two-year, $30.35MM extension with Tampa Bay during the 2022 season.  Signed when Glasnow was recovering from Tommy John surgery, the deal saw $25MM of the salary backloaded into the 2024 season, making it likely that the cost-conscious Rays would try to unload the right-hander beforehand.

The 30-year-old’s availability dovetailed with the Dodgers’ need for pitching this winter, as the Los Angeles rotation is full of injury-related question marks (i.e. Walker Buehler, and possibly Dustin May at midseason), pitchers without much big league experience (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone), and a swingman in Ryan Yarbrough who may be best suited for bullpen duty.  Pepiot was another member of that young crop of arms, but he’ll now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his third season of MLB duty.

In moving Glasnow and Margot and factoring in the $4MM in cash considerations, the Rays unloaded $33MM worth of salary for two players making the Major League minimum, in a move reminiscent of many budget-trimming, sell-high types of trades Tampa has become known for over the years.  The Rays’ success rate in these deals is almost a cliche by this point, and even if Tampa Bay fans have become weary of the team’s continual roster churn and perpetually low-spending ways, the Rays’ ability to field competitive teams speaks for itself.  Pepiot figures to step right into the rotation spot left open by Glasnow, while Deluca may not be guaranteed a spot in the Opening Day outfield, but he’ll at least be part of the shuttle heading back and forth between Triple-A since the outfielder has two minor league option years remaining.

The right-handed hitting Margot figures to move into a part-time role in the Dodgers’ outfield picture, acting as a complement to the left-handed James Outman and Jason Heyward.  Margot has played primarily as a center fielder and right fielder, thus lining up well with Outman and Heyward’s projected positions.  Mookie Betts will be taking over as the Dodgers’ new everyday second baseman in 2024, so it’s safe to guess that L.A. will aim to add more outfield depth if Betts will be spending most of his time on the dirt.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams broke down the Glasnow extension in larger detail yesterday, while Darragh McDonald outlined the news of the four-player trade agreement for MLBTR on Thursday.  Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest first reported the four principal players in the trade.  Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on the extension.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the Rays’ inclusion of the $4MM in salary offset.

Chicago Notes: Lee, Candelario, Pepiot

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After losing Jeimer Candelario, Cody Bellinger, and Marcus Stroman to free agency last month, the Cubs figure to look for additional help at the corner infield spots and in the rotation while also continuing a search for a left-handed bat that saw them connected to both Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani before the superstars landed with the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that search for a left-handed bat took them to a somewhat unusual place, as Mooney indicates that Chicago pursued star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee prior to him landing in San Francisco on a six-year, $113MM deal last week.

It’s something of a peculiar fit, as the Cubs have Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into the corner outfield spots with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his 80-grade glove in center field expected to break into the majors as a regular sometime next season. While that hasn’t stopped president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office from pursuing Soto and a reunion with Bellinger, it’s worth noting that Bellinger has plenty of experience at first base and that Soto is a fringe defender in the outfield who may be best suited for a DH role. Lee, by contrast, has spent his entire professional career in the outfield and is viewed as a plus defender on the grass with a chance to stick in center.

Despite the uncertain fit, Mooney suggests that the 25-year-old’s youth, left-handed bat, and ability to play center were all attractive factors in the eyes of the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the club may have seen Lee as a piece who could slot into center field on Opening Day to allow Crow-Armstrong more time to develop in the minors. Upon Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, the club could have utilized the DH slot, where they have no regular starting option, to rest Suzuki, Happ, and Lee by divvying up time in the outfield corners between the three of them while also allowing them to all play on an everyday basis.

More rumblings out of Chicago…

  • Sticking with the Cubs, Mooney suggests that the club “didn’t express interest” in retaining Candelario after he hit the open market last month. Candelario came up as a member of the Cubs but was shipped to the Tigers at the 2017 trade deadline alongside infielder Isaac Paredes in exchange for catcher Alex Avila and left-hander Justin Wilson. Candelario made his way back to Chicago this past summer when the Cubs landed him in exchange for infield prospect Kevin Made and lefty relief prospect D.J. Herz. Candelario’s second stint with the Cubs was shortened by a two-week stint on the injured list in September due to a back issue. Though Candelario was a strong fit for the Cubs’ offseason needs as a switch-hitting infielder who can contribute at both infield corners as well as DH, it’s possible the club was turned off from pursuing him by the relatively modest .234/.318/.445 slash line he put up in 157 trips to the plate with Chicago this season. Candelario wound up signing with the Reds on a three-year, $45MM deal earlier this month.
  • Looking toward the south side, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox were interested in right-hander Ryan Pepiot as part of a possible return package while discussing a Dylan Cease trade with the Dodgers earlier this winter. Pepiot ultimately was shipped to the Rays alongside outfielder Jonny DeLuca in exchange for oft-injured ace Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot. It’s unclear if the Dodgers and White Sox are still engaged in discussions regarding Cease following the Glasnow deal, though the Dodgers are certainly in need of multiple starting pitchers this offseason and would surely benefit from the addition of Cease, who sports a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons, to their rotation mix.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

Dodgers, Rays Discussing Deal Involving Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot

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December 14: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports today that the two sides are still discussing a trade. He says that “word is” the Dodgers “may also be” interested in an extension. It’s unclear what level of interest Glasnow has in an extension.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

MLB Places Julio Urias On Administrative Leave

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Sept. 8: ESPN’s Paula Lavigne reports that the alleged altercation occurred outside BMO Stadium in downtown Los Angeles following a Major League Soccer game between LAFC and Inter Miami. Los Angeles Department of Public Safety assistant chief Chris Carr tells Lavigne that a civilian captured the incident on video, and said video is now in the possession of local law enforcement.

Sept. 6: Major League Baseball has placed Dodgers starter Julio Urías on administrative leave, according to a league announcement. That’s the standard procedure for players who are being investigated for a possible violation of the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.

“Per an agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, Julio Urías has been placed on Administrative Leave until further notice as MLB continues its ongoing investigation,” the league said in a statement. “The administrative leave, which is effective immediately, is not disciplinary under the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.  We will refrain from further comment until the appropriate time.”

Urías was arrested on a felony domestic violence charge on Sunday. He was released on bond and reportedly has a court date scheduled for September 27. The Dodgers announced on Monday that Urías would not be traveling with the team, though he technically counted against the club’s roster until today.

As the league noted, administrative leave is not a finding of fact nor a disciplinary action. It’s a jointly agreed upon measure between the league and players union that keeps the player off the field while MLB conducts its investigation. Players continue to be paid while on leave, though they would retroactively forfeit salary if MLB ultimately levies a suspension. The league can impose discipline even in the absence of a criminal conviction. Urías was suspended for 20 games for a violation of the domestic violence policy during the 2019 season.

The Dodgers now have an opening on the active and 40-man rosters. It seems they’ll fill the MLB spot by recalling right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who’d been optioned to Triple-A last week. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) that Pepiot will take the ball tomorrow against the Marlins for what would’ve been Urías’ turn in the rotation.

Dodgers Designate Tyson Miller For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they have recalled right-hander Ryan Pepiot, with fellow righty Tyson Miller designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Miller is out of minor league options, so a DFA was the only way to remove him from the active roster. Los Angeles’ 40-man count drops to 39.

Miller just rejoined the Dodgers via a waiver claim over the weekend. It was his second stint with L.A., as he’d also spent a few weeks at Chavez Revine in the midsummer. The Dodgers initially acquired Miller from the Brewers in a July trade. They waived him a few weeks thereafter and lost him to the Mets. Los Angeles brought him back on a waiver claim out of New York a few days ago.

Between the two stints, Miller has pitched only twice as a Dodger — once apiece in each stay. He has logged 15 1/3 innings through 10 outings this season overall, allowing eight runs with a 10:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Miller has pitched in parts of three MLB campaigns with five different organizations and owns a 6.97 ERA in 31 frames.

The 28-year-old has also had mixed results at the Triple-A level, where he carries a 4.77 ERA in 230 1/3 innings. Miller has fanned over a quarter of opponents at the top minor league stop but has walked just over 10% of batters faced. Despite the inconsistency, he’s continued to find interest on the waiver wire in recent months.

He’ll land back on waivers in the next couple days. Miller has cleared once before, so he’d have the right to become a free agent if he’s outrighted again.

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