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Giants Sign Justin Verlander

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January 13: The Giants made the deal official over the weekend and introduced Verlander to the media today. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, in addition to the $15MM salary, Verlander’s deal also contains awards bonuses and a full no-trade clause.

January 7: The Giants are in agreement with Justin Verlander on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $15MM.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age-42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt that he’d be back on a one-year contract somewhere. It always seemed unlikely to continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros around his first half stay with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, leading Houston to let him walk.

Verlander took the ball 17 times and turned in a 5.48 earned run average through 90 1/3 innings. He had a pair of injured list stints — first in April for shoulder inflammation, then a two-month stretch between June and August related to a neck issue. Opponents tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 over his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander conceded after the season that he had come back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.

San Francisco believes there’s more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is only one year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s prior level. That pointed to regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found plenty of success with diminished swing-and-miss stuff that year.

Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already defied expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. Even if he’s not likely to repeat that kind of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotation arm and veteran presence in a staff that lost Blake Snell.

Logan Webb will be back to take the mantle as the team’s #1 starter. Verlander and Robbie Ray slot in the middle of the rotation as high-upside veterans who are trying to rebound from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big splash was a seven-year deal to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently liked the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.

San Francisco had roughly $208MM in luxury tax obligations coming into today, as calculated by RosterResource. This will push them to around $223MM, a little less than $20MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Verlander’s deal matches the $15MM salaries which veteran starters Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Blue Jays Sign Jeff Hoffman

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The Blue Jays made a significant bullpen upgrade on Friday evening, announcing a three-year deal with Jeff Hoffman that guarantees $33MM. The CAA client reportedly receives a $5MM signing bonus and can earn another $6MM in incentives. He’d unlock $500K for reaching each of 60, 70, 80 and 90 innings pitched in all three seasons. He’ll make a $6MM salary next season followed by $11MM annually from 2026-27.

General manager Ross Atkins said in a statement that Hoffman “will get an opportunity to close games for us” (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That suggests they’re planning to keep the right-hander in the late innings. Hoffman had reportedly drawn interest from teams as a starting pitcher.

Hoffman, who turned 32 on Wednesday, returns to the organization that drafted him more than a decade ago. The righty was Toronto’s first-round pick (ninth overall) out of East Carolina in 2014. He was a high-profile starting pitching prospect who landed among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in each of his first three professional seasons. Hoffman didn’t spend long in the Toronto system. One year after the draft, the Jays dealt him to the Rockies as part of the return in the Troy Tulowitzki deadline blockbuster.

The early portion of Hoffman’s major league career was a struggle. Like many young pitchers, he had a tough time at Coors Field. Hoffman had an earned run average north of 6.00 over parts of five seasons with the Rox. Colorado swapped him to the Reds for Robert Stephenson in advance of the 2021 season. Stephenson and Hoffman were each former top prospects whose careers would take off after a move to the bullpen.

For Hoffman, that didn’t materialize right away. He had a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Cincinnati, combining for a 4.28 ERA over 66 appearances. He signed with the Phillies on a minor league deal coming out of Spring Training in 2023. Hoffman had the best two seasons of his career in Philadelphia. He made the big league roster in early May of the first season and turned in 52 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball.

That performance made him a key piece of Rob Thomson’s leverage group heading into 2024. Hoffman posted even better numbers during his second season at Citizens Bank Park. He worked 66 1/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA while striking out more than a third of opposing hitters. Over his tenure with the Phils, Hoffman turned in a 2.28 earned run average with a 33.4% strikeout percentage. He kept his walks to a modest 7.4% clip and held opponents to a .180/.249/.295 slash in 473 plate appearances.

Of the 97 relievers who have logged 100+ innings over the past two seasons, only five (Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates and Tyler Holton) have a lower ERA. Hoffman also ranks sixth in strikeout rate, trailing Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Fernando Cruz, Kirby Yates, and A.J. Puk. He is in the top 10 in swinging strike percentage. The 6’5″ hurler has the stuff to match those results. His fastball sits around 97 MPH on average. Hoffman mixes four pitches and has overpowered hitters with both the heater and his upper-80s slider.

That production earned him a contract commensurate with what most top setup arms have made in recent offseasons. It’s an exact match for what Stephenson, last winter’s breakout free agent reliever, earned from the Angels. Joe Jiménez, Reynaldo López, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Clay Holmes all landed three-year deals that guaranteed between $26MM and $38MM. Jordan Hicks signed for $11MM annually but was able to secure a fourth year from the Giants as he entered his age-27 season.

MLBTR ranked Hoffman as the #2 free agent reliever behind Scott. We predicted a four-year, $44MM deal. While the AAV was accurate, teams evidently were unwilling to go to four years at that salary for what would be his age 32-35 seasons. Hoffman was reportedly hoping to land a deal similar to the three years and $38MM that Holmes received from the Mets. He comes up a little bit shy of that, at least in part because New York is going to give Holmes an opportunity to move to the rotation.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported this evening that Hoffman had been set to sign with the Orioles on a three-year, $40MM contract before Baltimore took issue with his throwing shoulder during the physical examination. Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate. Baltimore has a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. He did miss around two months due to a shoulder impingement early in the ’21 season as a member of the Reds.

The signing is perhaps some evidence of a thaw in what has been a slow-moving reliever market. It’s the second straight day in which one of the top bullpen arms has come off the board, as Baltimore agreed to a $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge last night (after pulling out of the agreement with Hoffman). Scott remains unsigned and should land the most significant reliever contract of the offseason by a decent margin. Carlos Estévez, Yates and David Robertson are among the next group of back-end arms.

It’s Toronto’s biggest free agent move of the offseason. Their only previous signing had been a two-year, $15MM deal to bring Yimi García back to the organization. They also took on nearly $100MM and acquired middle reliever Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade. The Jays had the worst bullpen in the American League last season. They non-tendered Jordan Romano after an injury-plagued season for their former All-Star closer. (Romano signed with Philadelphia as a key replacement for Hoffman.) The trio of new bullpen pickups join holdovers Erik Swanson and Chad Green as potential late-inning options for John Schneider.

According to RosterResource, Toronto’s luxury tax number is up to roughly $239MM. That puts them within a few million of the $241MM base threshold. The Jays narrowly dipped below the CBT line last season. They’d need to be willing to exceed that marker if they’re going to make a notable offensive upgrade beyond Giménez. The outfield is the biggest issue on paper, while the Jays could also look to solidify a third base position that currently features a handful of young, unproven infielders.

Jon Morosi of the MLB Network first reported that the Jays and Hoffman were discussing a multi-year deal. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported the $6MM in bonuses, which Kiley McDaniel of ESPN specified. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus, while The Associated Press had the salary structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Sign Jordan Diaz

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed former A’s infielder Jordan Diaz. Reports out of Japan first emerged in November that the Buffaloes were nearing a deal with the Colombian-born infielder, but the contract was not finalized until Wednesday.

Diaz, a right-handed hitter who spends most of his time between second and third base, appeared in 105 major league games between 2022-23. The bulk of those reps came in ’23, when Diaz appeared in a little more than half of the team’s games. Diaz didn’t make much of an offensive impact, as he hit .227/.276/.358 across 344 trips to the plate. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A to begin last season. They designated him for assignment and outrighted him off the 40-man roster towards the end of May.

The 24-year-old spent the rest of the year with the A’s top minor league team. He had a strong season, hitting 22 homers with a .301/.362/.529 slash through 436 plate appearances. Diaz is up to a .311/.363/.523 batting line over 724 trips to the plate in the Pacific Coast League. That’s a hitter-friendly environment, of course, but Diaz has shown plus contact skills with decent power at every minor league stop.

Rather than pursue another minor league contract to stay in affiliated ball, Diaz will parlay his strong Triple-A numbers to a guaranteed deal in Japan. He’s young enough to attract MLB interest down the line if he performs well against NPB pitching.

Blue Jays Designate Brett de Geus For Assignment

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The Blue Jays designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Toronto needed to create a 40-man roster spot after signing Jeff Hoffman this evening.

de Geus landed with the Jays on a late-season waiver claim from Miami. The 27-year-old righty made two appearances and allowed four runs across 2 1/3 innings. de Geus had made brief appearances with the Mariners and Marlins earlier in the year. He concluded the season with 11 1/3 frames while allowing 10 runs (nine earned). He struck out seven and issued four walks.

That marked de Geus’ first MLB action since his 2021 rookie year. He tossed 50 innings as a Rule 5 pick that season but allowed more than seven earned runs per nine. de Geus owns a 7.48 earned run average across 61 1/3 big league innings. He combined for a 5.31 ERA through 39 Triple-A innings last season. He posted a well below-average 15.6% strikeout rate against a decent 8.1% walk percentage.

Toronto is likely to place de Geus on waivers within the next few days. He has a previous career outright, which means he’d be able to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Orioles Backed Out Of Agreement With Jeff Hoffman After Flagged Physical

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Jeff Hoffman signed a three-year, $33MM contract with the Blue Jays this evening. The righty nearly landed with a division rival. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Hoffman and the Orioles had agreed to terms on a three-year, $40MM contract earlier this week. According to Murray, Baltimore pulled out of the deal after the physical revealed something related to his throwing shoulder that concerned the organization. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet write that Baltimore continued to pursue Hoffman and made him a revised offer after backing out of the initial terms, but the All-Star reliever turned his attention elsewhere.

Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate on prospective signings or trade acquisitions. The Orioles have a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. The O’s backed out of agreements with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin, respectively, in 2013 and ’14. They restructured their agreement with Yovani Gallardo during the 2015-16 offseason because of concerns about his shoulder. Those situations all predated the hiring of general manager Mike Elias and the franchise’s sale to owner David Rubenstein. This could certainly be coincidental.

Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. Hoffman did miss around two months in 2021 due to a shoulder impingement. He was sidelined between May 27 and July 21 that season. The injury did not require surgery.

Other teams have failed free agent physicals, of course. The most famous instance was when the Giants and Mets each pulled out of agreements with Carlos Correa because of concerns about his ankle during the 2021-22 offseason. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a deadline trade to acquire Jack Flaherty from the Tigers last summer because of concerns about his back. That’s not a direct parallel, as the Yanks had issues with Flaherty’s medical records rather than conducting their own physical.

The Flaherty situation illustrates that different clubs’ medical departments could have diverging opinions on a player’s health. The Dodgers traded for the righty within hours of the Yankees deal falling through. (Flaherty stayed healthy for the stretch run with Los Angeles.) Hoffman’s physical wound up costing him $7MM in guaranteed money, though he can earn up to $6MM back via innings-based incentives. It’s not clear whether his agreement with Baltimore would have included any performance bonuses.

Baltimore quickly pivoted to their next bullpen target. The O’s agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal with righty Andrew Kittredge last night. He’ll join Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez and Keegan Akin in front of closer Félix Bautista, who is returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Diamondbacks Claim René Pinto

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The D-backs announced Friday that they’ve claimed catcher René Pinto off waivers from the Orioles. Baltimore designated him for assignment a week ago to create roster space for free agent signee Charlie Morton. Arizona already had two open spots on their 40-man roster, so there’s no corresponding move.

Pinto changes hands for the second time this offseason. Baltimore had claimed him off waivers from the Rays within days of the end of the World Series. Their subsequent signing of Gary Sánchez to an $8.5MM free agent deal indicated that Pinto’s tenure with the O’s could be brief. The 28-year-old is out of minor league options. Baltimore couldn’t send him to Triple-A without exposing him to waivers. The Orioles will go with Adley Rutschman and Sánchez as their duo behind the plate.

While Pinto has a better chance of holding his roster spot in Arizona, that’s by no means guaranteed. Gabriel Moreno is locked in as the starter. Jose Herrera has spent parts of three seasons as the backup. Herrera is also out of options. It’s unlikely that the Diamondbacks will carry three catchers into the regular season. The Snakes could let Pinto and Herrera compete for the #2 job during Spring Training.

Alternatively, Adrian Del Castillo could squeeze them both off the roster. He had a monster year in Triple-A (.312/.399/.603) and hit .313/.368/.525 in his first 25 big league games. Del Castillo isn’t considered an especially strong defender, however, so the Snakes could use him as a multi-positional bench bat rather than risk thinning their catching depth by waiving Herrera and Pinto.

Pinto is a right-handed hitter who has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons for Tampa Bay. He owns a .231/.263/.404 slash with 10 homers across 237 career plate appearances. Pinto showed some power in a small sample in 2023. That earned him the Opening Day catching assignment last season, but he struggled behind the dish. Opponents went 18-19 in stolen base attempts over just 135 innings. Pinto also committed a passed ball and was behind the plate for seven wild pitches.

Tampa Bay optioned him and kept him in Triple-A for the rest of the season. He hit just .191/.257/.373 over 53 games with their top affiliate and was never called back up. Pinto’s broader offensive track record in the minors is more impressive. He’s a .253/.303/.487 hitter across 907 Triple-A plate appearances spanning four seasons.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Reds' budget, Dylan Cease trade proposals, the Brewers' lineup, Nathaniel Lowe's extension candidacy, Nick Pivetta landing spots, the frequency of relievers getting rotation chances, the Braves' ceiling, and much more.

 

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17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Reds Have Interest In Carlos Estevez

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The Reds are among the teams with interest in free agent reliever Carlos Estévez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Blue Jays and Yankees have also been tied to the All-Star righty this offseason.

Estévez is one of the better unsigned relievers. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. Estévez turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

The relief market has yet to get going in earnest. Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Estévez is arguably the #3 free agent reliever, while Kirby Yates and David Robertson will be available on short-term deals at a lofty salary.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top setup arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino.

A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll. The Reds have a few openings in the middle relief group, though. Adding another reliever is sensible, though it’s not clear if there’s room in the budget to make a legitimate push for Estévez. RosterResource calculates Cincinnati’s payroll around $106MM, about $6MM above where they finished last season. After acquiring Gavin Lux from the Dodgers this week, general manager Nick Krall said the front office has “a little bit (of flexibility), not a ton” from a payroll perspective (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Latest On Pete Alonso’s Market

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Approximately eight teams are involved in the market for Pete Alonso, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. However, Heyman suggests that most of those clubs are interested in a shorter-term, opt-out laden deal with the star slugger.

That aligns with recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that suggested that Alonso is likely to turn to a short-term contract. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote in a reader mailbag last week that contract length appeared to be the holdup in talks between Alonso and the Mets. Heyman frames things similarly, reporting that the Mets prefer a short-term deal.

According to Heyman, Alonso had been seeking a deal of at least six years with a guarantee in the $150-180MM range at points this offseason. It is unclear how far his camp at the Boras Corporation has moved off that ask. In any case, it doesn’t seem that any teams were willing to go those heights. That’s not especially surprising considering the way teams have devalued defensively-limited sluggers over the past decade. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson each got six-plus years and narrowly topped $160MM (albeit with deferrals in Freeman’s case), but they were each coming off superior platform seasons to Alonso.

Alonso turned 30 last month. He hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers across 695 trips to the plate. That was his lowest full-season home run total and slugging percentage. Paired with the defensive limitations as a middling defender at first base, it’s easy to understand teams’ hesitance to make a long-term commitment. At the same time, there’s clear value in a player who plays every game who hit 34 homers in what is a relative down year from a power perspective.

MLBTR predicted a five-year, $125MM contract for Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. As we noted from the beginning of the winter, though, it wasn’t difficult to foresee a situation where his market didn’t materialize as his camp envisioned. Alonso had previously declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer (albeit not while he was represented by Scott Boras). That covered his final arbitration season, in which he made $20.5MM. To come out ahead, he needed to beat $137.5MM over six free agent years. While that was evidently a goal, it looked like an uphill battle.

Alonso could end up taking the route traversed by Cody Bellinger last offseason. When his market didn’t materialize as hoped, Bellinger signed for three years and $80MM with opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. Alonso would probably expect to beat a $26.67MM average annual value if he’s going with a short-term contract. A return to the Mets still seems the best fit, especially if the team successfully waits him out into pivoting to a three-year guarantee. New York could keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season.

Teams like the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been loosely tied to Alonso in recent weeks. Los Angeles, Toronto and Boston all have in-house options at first base who could clutter the picture. San Francisco seemingly wanted to upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr., but Heyman reports that they’re reluctant to meet Alonso’s asking price.

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