NL Central Notes: Saito, Fielder, Pujols
The Astros announced last night that GM Ed Wade and longtime executive Tal Smith have been dismissed. Here are some notes from the NL Central…
- The Brewers announced Johnny Narron will replace Dale Sveum as their hitting coach. Narron, who's the older brother of Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron, had previously worked with the Rangers and developed a strong relationship with Josh Hamilton. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reaction from GM Doug Melvin, manager Ron Roenicke and Narron.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Brewers need relievers (assuming Francisco Rodriguez turns down arbitration).
- The Brewers have maintained dialogue with the agent for free agent reliever Takashi Saito, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
- Baseball executives tell Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that they have trouble identifying a team other than the Cardinals that’s a realistic potential destination for Albert Pujols. The Marlins bid on Pujols, but they aren’t seen as a realistic suitor.
- Generally speaking, Passan’s sources say they prefer overweight players to aging ones. This could play in Prince Fielder’s favor, since he’s just 27.
Quick Hits: Davis, CBA, Smith, Darvish
On this date in 2005, the Marlins sent Carlos Delgado and $7MM to the Mets for Mike Jacobs and prospects Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas. It doesn't appear that any blockbusters will take place today, but we do have some links to go along with those leftovers…
- The Athletics have hired Chili Davis to be their new hitting coach, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Maureen Mullen reported the news first (on Twitter).
- John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle says baseball’s new labor deal is a win for the players.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports points out that the high turnover in MLB front offices could lead to increased player movement this offseason. Some general managers become attached to players they’ve obtained, but it’s easier for new GMs to deal players acquired by a previous leadership group.
- Randy Smith told Dan Hayes of the North County Times that he’d like to become a general manager again. Smith became the youngest GM in baseball history when the Padres hired him as a 29-year-old in 1993. He went on to become the Tigers' GM before returning to the Padres, where he's now the international scouting and player development director.
- Yu Darvish is still likely to be posted this offseason, though we won’t know officially for a couple of weeks, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). A source close to Darvish told Morosi that it's "more likely than not" that the 25-year-old will pitch in the Major Leagues next year.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Garcia, Rays, Blue Jays
The Red Sox won’t be hiring their next manager today, but they made progress on the managerial front this week. Here’s the latest on Boston’s search and here are some updates on their division rivals…
- Matt Klentak left the Orioles to be the Angels’ assistant GM because the chance to build a winner with Jerry Dipoto was too good to pass up, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. “This is a great opportunity,” Klentak said. “It has nothing to do with the team and the change in regime [in Baltimore].”
- Jon Heyman of SI.com says Freddy Garcia’s deal with the Yankees guarantees the right-hander $4MM and includes incentives (Twitter link). Garcia pitched for a $1.5MM base salary this past season but earned a raise with 146 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball.
- ESPN.com’s Buster Olney highlights some offseason needs for ten MLB teams. For example, the Rays will need to obtain a first baseman and/or a DH and the Blue Jays continue searching for a closer.
Baseball’s Hardest-To-Obtain Commodity
When Major League executives discuss what they’re looking for in the amateur draft, they use phrases like “middle-of-the-order bat,” “five-tool athlete” and “top-of-the-rotation stuff.” They’re focused on premier talent, not replaceable role players, and the jargon they use reveals their intentions. Not coincidentally, starting pitchers and up-the-middle players like catchers, shortstops and center fielders dominate the early rounds of the draft.
Free agency isn't so different. It pays to be an elite starting pitcher, a shutdown closer, a legitimate power threat or a serviceable hitter at a defense-first position. But if you’re a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, a pinch hitter or a utility player, your chances of obtaining a substantial payday are substantially diminished.
Baseball’s general managers are always on the lookout for their team’s next impact player, so they know which players tend to be easy to acquire and which ones are elusive. So what’s the hardest commodity to obtain: an all-around catcher, an elite shortstop, an ace starter, a power bat or something else entirely?
“It’s a great question,” Pirates GM Neal Huntington says. “I don’t know that you can really put one over the other. To find that all-around shortstop, to find that all-around catcher, to find that true top-of-the-rotation starter, those are probably the three most challenging. There just aren’t a lot of them, whether they come out of high school or come out of college, via trade or via the draft it’s a scarcity,”
The Mets employ Sandy Alderson, baseball’s longest-tenured GM. Even though he’s been running MLB teams since the year Jose Reyes was born, Alderson doesn’t have a definite answer, either.
“Well if you’re talking about a five-tool catcher, you’re talking about a very rare commodity,” he said in Milwaukee at baseball’s GM Meetings. “On the other hand to find a Justin Verlander-type number one starter — that’s extremely difficult to find. If you were starting a franchise, which would you prefer to have? You might say a position player over a pitcher, but then look at what happened to Buster Posey, so injuries can occur to catchers just as they can occur to pitchers.”
Like Alderson, Orioles GM Dan Duquette has experience running large and small-market MLB teams. He echoed his counterpart when describing baseball’s toughest-to-obtain commodity.
“A switch-hitting catcher with power from both sides of the plate, who’s a good field general,” he said, seemingly referring to Matt Wieters, the Baltimore backstop who hit 22 home runs and won his first Gold Glove in 2011.
Four-time Gold Glove winner Yadier Molina joined Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter on the 2011 World Series Champions. The Cardinals obtained excellent production behind the plate, in the middle of the order and atop their rotation, but one type of player continues to elude Mozeliak.
“For us it seems to be that dominant shortstop,” he said. “I think having just a stable young star that becomes the face of your club — it’s everybody’s goal to try to get that, whether that’s a starting pitcher, first baseman, shortstop, catcher and so for us shortstop is a hard position to find.”
25 years ago, when Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith was in his prime, then-Cardinals GM Dal Maxvill probably would have answered the question differently. There are few absolutes when it comes to roster construction, but every team — even the defending World Champions — wants something.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Latest On Boston’s Managerial Search
The Red Sox interviewed Bobby Valentine for their managerial opening earlier in the week and Tigers third base coach Gene Lamont and Blue Jays first base coach Torey Lovullo remain in the mix for the position. Here's the latest on Boston's search:
- The team won't settle anything today or over the weekend, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham reports that Lamont met with ownership earlier this week. Meanwhile, Valentine is "really excited" about the idea of managing in Boston, but hasn't communicated with the team since Monday, according to Abraham.
- The Red Sox don't have plans to conduct further interviews with Lovullo or other candidates, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. It appears that Lamont and Valentine are the finalists for the position.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggests Red Sox president Larry Lucchino has more sway with GM Ben Cherington than he did with Theo Epstein. Lucchino is Valentine's "patron saint" in the Red Sox organization, Olney writes.
- More than 70% of respondents expect Valentine to manage in Boston, according to a recent MLBTR poll.
37 Free Agents Offered Arbitration
Teams offered 37 free agents arbitration this year, compared to 35 last year and 23 the year before that. If you're not sure what offering arbitration means, click here to read our free agent arbitration primer.
The following players were offered arbitration this week, and now have until December 7th to accept or decline the offers. The breakdown is more complicated than usual this offseason, as MLB transitions from one CBA to another. Here are the details on which players obtained offers:
Type A Free Agents (7 players)
- Prince Fielder
- David Ortiz
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Albert Pujols
- Jose Reyes
- Jimmy Rollins
- C.J. Wilson
It will cost draft picks to sign the free agents above, and their teams did have to offer them arbitration to be eligible for compensation picks.
Modified Type A Free Agents (6 players)
- Heath Bell
- Michael Cuddyer
- Kelly Johnson
- Ryan Madson
- Francisco Rodriguez
- Josh Willingham
It won’t cost draft picks to sign the six players above, but their teams did have to offer them arbitration to be eligible for compensation picks.
Type B Free Agents (24 players)
- Rod Barajas
- Clint Barmes
- Mark Buehrle
- Matt Capps
- Bruce Chen
- Francisco Cordero
- David DeJesus
- Octavio Dotel
- Ryan Doumit
- Mark Ellis
- Frank Francisco
- Freddy Garcia
- Aaron Harang
- Ramon Hernandez
- Raul Ibanez
- Edwin Jackson
- Jason Kubel
- Derrek Lee
- Jose Molina
- Darren Oliver
- Carlos Pena
- Aramis Ramirez
- Jon Rauch
- Dan Wheeler
It won’t cost draft picks to sign the 24 players above, but their teams did have to offer them arbitration to be eligible for compensation picks.
Also note that the following five Type A players will be treated as Type B free agents: Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Ramon Hernandez and Darren Oliver. They didn't require arbitration offers for their teams to receive supplemental draft picks as compensation and teams won't have to surrender picks to sign them.
Our Free Agent Arbitration Offer Tracker has all of the arbitration decisions and will also show who accepts two weeks from now. We also note the decisions in our constantly-updated 2012 free agent list.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Kelly Johnson
Kelly Johnson’s free agent stock has improved considerably in the past week and it has nothing to do with his ability to contribute on a baseball field. The MLBPA announced on Tuesday that teams will no longer have to forfeit draft picks to sign six Type A free agents and, fortunately for Johnson, he was on the list.
Heading into the offseason, it seemed likely that Johnson’s Type A ranking would limit his free agent value. His offense dropped off in 2011 (.222/.304/.413 line with 21 homers), so teams might not have wanted to surrender a top draft pick for the 29-year-old. But thanks to the players association, all that’s required to sign Johnson is money.
So far this offseason, middle infielders such as Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill and John McDonald have all signed multiyear deals. Omar Infante agreed to a similar contract before officially hitting free agency. Johnson’s career .260/.343/.441 line trumps the others and he’s younger than every one of the infielders mentioned except Hill (Johnson and Hill were born less than a month apart).
Johnson's representatives at SFX will likely make the case that he is a complete player who contributes on defense (above-average UZR in 2010 and 2011), with his power (47 home runs in 2010-11), by getting on base (.343 career OBP) and on the basepaths (double-digit steals in three of the past four seasons). There's a good chance teams like the Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs and Rockies consider Johnson the best remaining free agent option in a thinned-out second base market.
Given the abundance of two-year deals for second basemen so far this offseason and the fact that Johnson won’t cost a draft pick, he figures to obtain two-year offers. If he’s looking for a two-year deal, I expect he could sign for more than the $11MM Hill obtained. Alternatively, he could accept arbitration or seek a one-year deal with a higher base salary and attempt to position himself for a bounce-back season and a major free agent contract a year from now at the age of 30.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
What We Learned: This Week’s Arbitration Offers
More than half of ranked free agents received offers of arbitration from their teams earlier in the week. Clubs offered 37 ranked free agents arbitration (up from 35 last year and 23 the year before) and that total may increase when the Tigers announce their decisions on Wilson Betemit and Magglio Ordonez. Here's what we learned from the flurry of arbitration offers:
The Facts
- 37 of 55 ranked free agents (67%) obtained offers of arbitration so far. Keep in mind that the total doesn't include the two Tigers, but does include players who signed before the deadline and the six modified Type A free agents.
- By way of comparison, teams offered 35 of 65 total ranked free agents arbitration (54%) a year ago.
- This year teams offered 13 of 16 Type A free agents arbitration (81%). 24 of 39 Type B free agents (62%) obtained arbitration offers so far.
- If you haven't done so already, click here for an explanation of how free agent compensation works and click here for our arbitration offer tracker.
General Observations About The Decisions
- Teams continue to value draft picks highly, despite the news that they’ll face spending limits in upcoming drafts.
- The former teams of the six Type A free agents who will no longer cost draft picks to sign all offered the players arbitration. Would Heath Bell, Michael Cuddyer, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Madson, Josh Willingham and Francisco Rodriguez all have obtained offers were it not for the rule change? Maybe, but their status change sure didn’t hurt.
- Every Type A free agent obtained an offer except Roy Oswalt and two players whose teams were contractually prohibited from offering arbitration (Carlos Beltran and Takashi Saito).
- Here's a more detailed look at what the decisions mean for a handful of free agents.
What To Expect In 2012
- Next year’s process will be all about the game’s top free agents and it will occur earlier in the offseason. Fewer free agents figure to obtain offers from their teams, which will hesitate to offer deals to non-elite players.
- After a five day quiet period following the World Series, teams must offer free agents substantial contracts to be eligible for compensation picks (to be precise, the guaranteed one-year contract offers must match the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the prior season).
- For what will may be the last time, the supplementary first round will again be extremely long in 2012.
List Of Free Agents Who Will Cost Draft Picks
In case the fine distinction between Type A and Type B free agents wasn't confusing enough, MLB has added a new level of complexity to this offseason's class of ranked free agents. This year's Type A free agents have been divided into three groups and teams will only have to surrender draft choices for signing players from one of the the sub-groups. You can read about the details here and follow the arbitration offers with MLBTR's tracker, but if you're only concerned with the bottom line, look no further. Here are the six remaining players for whom teams will have to surrender a top draft pick this offseason:
Also note that the Phillies will surrender a draft pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon earlier in the offseason. No other free agents, even those who obtained offers of arbitration, will cost draft picks. This means fewer obstacles exist for teams wary of losing draft choices and more opportunities exist for ranked free agents looking to sign their next contracts. Middle relievers and second-tier position players are no doubt pleased that the MLBPA bargained for these changes.
Poll: Which Team Will Sign C.J. Wilson?
At the beginning of the offseason, C.J. Wilson said there was a "great chance" that he would re-sign in Texas. Much has changed in the ensuing weeks. Wilson has drawn interest from a third of MLB teams and the Rangers have decided to shift Neftali Feliz to the rotation. Texas' need for starting pitching has diminished since the offseason began, so the Rangers may balk at Wilson's reported asking price of $120MM.
But some team will happily sign Wilson, even if the Rangers don't. Who will it be…
Which team will sign C.J. Wilson?
-
Angels 24% (4,960)
-
Yankees 23% (4,779)
-
Nationals 11% (2,143)
-
Red Sox 10% (2,023)
-
Rangers 10% (1,993)
-
Blue Jays 6% (1,147)
-
Marlins 5% (1,038)
-
Phillies 5% (961)
-
Other 4% (913)
-
Royals 2% (400)
Total votes: 20,357