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Looking For The Next Marlins Catcher

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In a recent post, I looked at some potential landing spots for Willson Contreras, should the Cubs decide to move him. A few commenters expressed surprise that the Marlins weren’t on the list. While it’s true that Miami could use a new backstop, and has been rumored to have interest in Contreras in the past, my logic for leaving them off the list was that I expect they will target a catcher with more control than Contreras, who would be a pure rental. While it’s possible they could trade for Contreras and then sign him to an extension, that wouldn’t be cheap, especially for a club that has been stripping payroll down in recent years. It seems more likely that they will target a catcher that matches their current core.

With Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and others, the club has a solid core of players that are between the ages of 23 and 27, and all come with at least three years of control. They also have five prospects on both the MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs Top 100, as well as six on Baseball America’s list. The club has everything in place to open a competitive window soon, but after going 67-95 in 2021, it’s probably too soon to be going after a win-now piece like Contreras.

In the first few months of 2021, most of Miami’s playing time behind the plate went to Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon and Chad Wallach. With none of those three locking down the job, the club acquired a couple of catchers at the trade deadline, trading Adam Duvall to Atlanta for Alex Jackson as well as sending John Curtiss to Milwaukee for Payton Henry. Down the stretch, Jackson was given 30 starts as a catcher and Henry got five, but neither did enough to secure the position. Nick Fortes played better than both of them, but in a small sample of just 14 games that doesn’t align with his minor league track record. The position still seems to be wide open with the club looking for outside upgrades, as manager Don Mattingly admitted when discussing the situation a few weeks ago. But since there’s a weak free agent class and the Marlins have about a dozen viable starting pitchers, there should be plenty of avenues for trade discussions this winter. Let’s dig into some options.

Blue Jays: The Canadian birds are loaded with young, cheap, controllable catchers, with varying degrees of appeal. Danny Jansen is entering his age-27 season, which will be his first of three arbitration years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz recently projected his salary will be a modest $1.5MM. He dealt with various injuries in 2021 and only got into 70 games, but hit 11 home runs in that time and slashed .223/299/.473, producing a wRC of 105 and 1.4 fWAR. Reese McGuire got a lot of playing time when Jansen was hurt, getting into 78 games and hitting .253/.310/.343, for a wRC+ of 78 and 1.3 fWAR. He’ll turn 27 in March, has just over two years of service time and is therefore one season away from arbitration and four away from free agency. Alejandro Kirk also spent some time on the IL and only got into 60 games. He hit .242/.328/.436 for a wRC+ of 106 and 0.7 fWAR. He’ll turn 23 in November and has five years of team control remaining. On top of those three MLB-ready options, the club also has one of the best catching prospects in the majors in Gabriel Moreno. Baseball America lists him as the 8th overall prospect and the second-highest catcher, behind only Adley Rutschman. MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both have him as the 32nd overall prospect. Though he hasn’t reached the big leagues yet, he finished 2021 at Triple-A and will be appearing in this year’s Arizona Fall League. With the Blue Jays losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz to free agency, they could perhaps part with one of these catchers in exchange for one of the dozen or so starting pitchers that the Marlins have to offer.

Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud recently signed an extension, agreeing to stay in Atlanta through at least 2023, with a club option for 2024. With d’Arnaud seemingly lined up to be the go-to catcher for the next few years, that could put a squeeze on some of the other options in the organization. William Contreras is still a few months away from his 24th birthday but has gotten into 56 big-league games already. In that time, he’s hit .225/.308/.405, for a wRC+ of 89. He has six years of team control remaining. Waiver claim Chadwick Tromp is on hand as a depth option. And then there’s Shea Langeliers, the club’s best catching prospect. Baseball America ranks him the 68th best overall prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline has him 69th, and FanGraphs ranks him 52nd. He played most of this season at Double-A and even got into five Triple-A games. Despite already trading Alex Jackson to Miami a few months ago, they might be able to do line up on another deal.

Tigers: Eric Haase had a breakout campaign in 2021, his age-28 season. In 98 games, he bopped 22 homers and produced an overall line of .231/.286/.429, wRC+ of 100 and 1.0 fWAR. He has five years of team control remaining. Jake Rogers was enjoying a nice breakout before an injury shut him down, eventually leading to Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out for at least part of the 2022 campaign. In 38 games in 2021 before the injury, he hit .239/.306/.496, wRC+ of 115 and 1.0 fWAR. He also has five years of team control remaining. The club also has Dustin Garneau and Grayson Greiner on hand, who both made decent contributions in their limited action in 2021. There’s also the Dillon Dingler factor, as the prospect finished the season at Double-A. FanGraphs lists him as the 73rd-best prospect in baseball. Given all these competent options, they could subtract someone and still feel good about their situation behind the plate. Perhaps Miami would be willing to take on Rogers and give Alex Jackson a chance to prove himself until Rogers is healthy. Although they’ve been in rebuild mode for a few years, it seems like the Tigers will attempt to return to contention in 2022. They have lots of intriguing young arms but lost Wily Peralta to free agency and may not get anything from Spencer Turnbull or Matthew Boyd next year because of injuries. One of those Miami arms would make a great fit in Detroit.

Padres: The Friars have a couple of adequate catchers in the majors, Victor Caratini and Austin Nola. Caratini had a down year in 2021 but still has passable numbers of the past few campaigns. From 2019 to 2021, his overall line is .244/.327/.368, wRC+ of 86. 2022 will be his second of three arbitration years, with MLBTR projecting a salary of $2.1MM for the 28-year-old. Nola, on the other hand, is still a year away from arbitration and has four years of team control remaining. In 183 games over the past three seasons, his slash line is .271/.345/.435, for a wRC+ of 114 and 4.2 fWAR. And the picture gets crowded when we consider Luis Campusano. He’s ranked as the 32nd prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 37th by MLB Pipeline and 15th by FanGraphs. The 23-year-old has already had a cup of coffee at the majors, getting into 12 games for San Diego. Since they are running franchise-record payrolls of late, trading a catcher could be a way to upgrade their roster without breaking the bank.

Twins: Even with a terrible showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, Mitch Garver is still on a solid four-year run for the Twins. From 2018-2021, his line is .259/.344/.501, wRC+ of 125 and 6.3 fWAR. He has two seasons of team control remaining and is projected by MLBTR to earn $3.1MM in arbitration next year. Ryan Jeffers had a solid debut in 2020, but took a bit of a step backward in 2021. However, he’s still only 24 years old and comes with five years of control. His overall slash line between 2020 and 2021 is .221/.285/.407, producing a wRC+ of 88 and 1.1 fWAR in 111 games. They also have Ben Rortvedt on hand, who made his debut in 2021. He didn’t show much with the bat, but it was a small sample size of 39 games, and he has much better offensive numbers in the minors. He just turned 24 and has six years of team control remaining. He’s also left-handed, with Garver and Jeffers both being righties. 2021 was an awful campaign for the Twins but all indicators suggest they’re hoping to immediately return to competing in 2022. The rotation lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to injury, leaving plenty of room for a new acquisition.

Pirates: Pittsburgh hopes that its catcher of the future is Henry Davis, which is why they selected him first overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Baseball America ranks him as the 44th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 22nd and FanGraphs 27th. He’s likely still a few years away from reaching the big leagues, but the Pirates aren’t expected to compete in the interim. They could easily subtract someone like Jacob Stallings and sign a cheap veteran to take his place. Stallings turns 32 in December and has three years of club control remaining. As a Super Two player, he’s already gone through arbitration once, making $1.3MM in 2021. MLBTR projects he will double that to $2.6MM for 2022. He generally hits just below league average but adds value with his excellent defense. For instance, his 2021 slash line was .246/.335/.369, for a wRC+ of 95. But because of his defensive contributions, he was worth 2.6 fWAR on the year, which was double his previous best. One of the worst teams in baseball this season, the Pirates will be looking to stockpile as much young talent as they can in order to return to contention.

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal is entrenched as the primary catcher for the Pale Hose as he still has two years left on his contract. Yermin Mercedes had a tantalizing showing with the bat at the start of the season, but got squeezed out of playing time and eventually optioned down to the minors. Even when Grandal was on the injured list, the playing time went primarily to Seby Zavala and Zack Collins. In 68 games at the big-league level this year, Mercedes hit .271/.328/.404, for a wRC+ of 102. In 59 Triple-A games, the production was similar, as he slashed .275/.318/.464, wRC+ of 106. There was some scuttlebutt that Mercedes was unhappy with the organization, and he even briefly retired in July, only to quickly return. Perhaps a change of scenery would be beneficial to all parties. Mercedes will turn 29 in February but has six years of team control remaining. The White Sox have a solid rotation but will be losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.

Diamondbacks: Similar to the Pirates, the Diamondbacks are coming off a terrible year and probably considering any veteran-for-prospect arrangement they can find. Carson Kelly is coming off his first of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player, just like the aforementioned Jacob Stallings. However, Kelly is much younger, as he just turned 27 in July. He made $1.7MM in 2021 and is projected by MLBTR to make $3MM in 2022, with two years of team control after that. Over his three seasons in the desert, he’s hit .239/.333/.435, for a wRC+ of 99 and 3.8 fWAR.

Mariners: The Mariners have a bit of a crowd behind the plate. Tom Murphy is the most experienced of the bunch, as he has just over four years’ service time. Luis Torrens had a nice season in 2021, his age-25 campaign. He hit 15 homers and slashed .243/.299/.431 for a wRC+ of 101. He has four years of team control remaining. Cal Raleigh made his MLB debut in 2021. Although he didn’t hit much, he’s only 24 years old and has a better offensive track record in the minors. He’ll turn 25 in November and has six years of team control remaining. They also have Jose Godoy on hand as a depth option. The rotation will be without Tyler Anderson next year, as he heads to free agency. There’s also the giant unanswered question of Yusei Kikuchi, who had a great first half but slumped bad enough in the second half to lose his rotation spot. With famously trade-happy president like Jerry Dipoto, perhaps a catching-for-pitching swap could be discussed here.

Giants: Not so long ago, it didn’t seem there was any chance of the Giants picking up their $22MM club option on Buster Posey for 2022. But then 2021 happened. After sitting out the 2020 season, Posey showed didn’t show any rust. In fact, it seemed to rejuvenate him. His slash line on the season was .304/.390/.499, producing a wRC+ of 140, his highest such mark since 2014. Now it seems almost impossible for the club to turn that option down. That means that prospect Joey Bart is blocked for another year. He’s already seen his name floated in trade rumors before, and there was even a false report that he was part of the Kris Bryant trade. But he’s still in the Giants organization for now. Baseball America ranks him the 39th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 16th and FanGraphs 55th. He’s already gotten a cup of coffee at the majors and comes with six years of club control. He turns 25 years old in December.

David Stearns May Have Vesting Option For 2023

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As the Mets continue their search for a new president of baseball operations, they may have to change tack, according to Andy Martino of SNY. It has long been reported that the top tier of their preferred candidates included Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. Martino reports that the Mets’ confidence of landing any of the three is apparently low, leading to them consider a change of strategy and targeting younger executives.

Stearns, the youngest of the group at 36, has had his name connected to the Mets in rumors for a while now, as it was widely believed the Manhattan native was entering the last year of his contract with the Brewers. However, Martino says it is “now believed” that the club has a vesting option for his services for 2023. It’s unclear what conditions need to be met for the option to vest, but that is a noteworthy development, if true. As Martino himself notes, this changes the calculation of how much leverage the Mets would have to compel Milwaukee to allow negotiations to take place. Many have speculated that the Brewers could allow Stearns to consider outside opportunities because he is nearing the end of his contract. But if that is not actually the case, it makes it less likely that they would be open to such a scenario.

Dodgers’ assistant general manager Brandon Gomes, 37 years old, has already been reported to be one of those under consideration, though Martino reports that the Dodgers could promote him to general manager in order to keep him from taking a GM job with the Mets. Martino also floats Brewers general manager Matt Arnold and Giants general manager Scott Harris as those that “could be in the mix.”

Gio Urshela Discusses Position Change

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Yankees’ infielder Gio Urshela spoke to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post about switching from third base to shortstop this season and had positive things to say about the move.

“I played my entire minor leagues [and major leagues] at third base. Then, moving to shortstop, I kind of liked it,” he said. Urshela was exaggerating a little bit, as he had played a little bit of shortstop before this year, but not a lot. In 2017, he logged 20 innings at short while with Cleveland, then racked up 65 more for the Blue Jays in 2018. That was the sum total of his big league shortstop experience, 85 innings. He got a bit more in the minors, 276 1/3 shortstop innings from 2013 to 2018. But over 2019 and 2020, he didn’t play shortstop at all, majors or minors. “I really enjoyed playing shortstop because you get more involved in the game,” Urshela continued. “Every play, you’re going to be involved. Third base, I just wait for the [ball] and that’s it. You don’t move that much.”

On September 13th, Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone announced that the club would be moving Gleyber Torres from shortstop to second base “to take some pressure off” him. This followed years of speculation about the eventual move, given Torres’s defensive struggles. At that point, Urshela had appeared in parts of 11 games at short on the campaign, but then made 17 more appearances there over the season’s final three weeks. And how do defensive metrics like Urshela’s work? On the season overall, Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Urshela at zero, Defensive Runs Saved had him at minus-1 and Ultimate Zone Rating gave him minus-0.2.

It’s probably not wise to use these small-sample numbers as any kind of cudgel to attack Urshela’s future as a shortstop, but he was around average offensively this year as well, as his slash line of .267/.301/.419 amount to a wRC+ of 96. (League average is 100.) That’s a drop-off from his 2019-2020 output of .310/.358/.523, wRC+ of 132. It seems fair to deduce that the Yankees will consider shortstop an area of potential improvement and will thus be very interested in this winter’s crop of shortstops. The market is loaded with stars, such as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Chris Taylor.

This will be lead to an interesting financial decision for the Yankees, in terms of the luxury tax. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, their 2022 luxury tax number is already $222MM, when factoring in estimates for the team’s massive arbitration class of 19 players. That’s well over the lowest threshold for this season, which was $210MM, a line the Yankees made a point to avoid crossing. However, it’s entirely possible that the entire luxury tax landscape looks completely different in a few months, given that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and MLBPA expires December 1st, with the negotiation of a new CBA widely expected to be contentious, leaving many variables undetermined for the time being. Regardless of whether the thresholds change significantly or not, that’s a heavy payroll to be carrying before the offseason even begins. Any of those aforementioned star shortstops would likely add at least $20MM to their luxury tax ledger, if not more, taking the Yankees above $240MM, before even factoring in any other offseason signings. Under the current CBA, the luxury tax penalties increase at $230MM and again at $250MM.

If the Yankees do add a shortstop of some kind before next season, it might squeeze Urshela’s playing time, as moving Torres to second base means DJ LeMahieu should be slotted into third base most of the time. Urshela played 2021 on a salary of $4.65MM and MLBTR’s arbitration projections for 2022 estimate that could increase to the vicinity of $6.2MM for his second of three arb years. That would be a bit steep for a bench infielder who offers up league-average offense, but it could also be a bargain if the club thinks he’s capable of returning to the form he showed in 2019-2020.

Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Center Fielders

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As the offseason creeps closer and closer, we’ll continue our position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve already covered catchers, first basemen, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops. Next up, center field.

Everyday Options

Starling Marte (33 years old next season): There are some other great players on this list who can play center field a bit, but Marte is your best bet if you’re looking for an everyday center fielder who can help you on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he’s been an above-average contributor for nine of the last ten years, with 2017 being his only dip. (He missed 80 games that season after testing positive for Nandrolone, an anabolic steroid.) Over the 1,134 games of his career, he has hit 126 home runs, stolen 296 bases and has a slash line of .289/.345/.451. All that adds up to a wRC+ of 118 and 30.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. And he’s coming off his best offensive season to date, as he slashed .308/.381/.456, with 47 stolen bases, the most in the majors by a significant margin. (Whit Merrifield was second with 40.) His wRC+ on the season of 133 and his 5.4 fWAR were both career highs.

On the defensive side of things, Marte played primarily in left field for the first half of his career, as the Pirates had Andrew McCutchen in center. But since McCutchen’s departure, Marte moved over to center and has hardly moved off it since. Over the past four seasons, he has played exactly one game in left field, logging just three innings. Other than that, he’s been exclusively in center. According to Statcast, he has been worth 17 Outs Above Average in that span, which is the 15th-highest tally among center fielders league-wide. Although Marte just turned 33 and is older than many center fielders in the league, he was still worth 4 OAA, 20th-best among center fielders this season.

Marte is reaching free agency a little bit later than most players due to the extension he signed with the Pirates way back in 2014. As a 33-year-old, that could put a cap on how long teams are willing to commit to him being a regular in center. But the Blue Jays just gave George Springer a six-year contract to cover his age-31 through age-36 seasons. Regardless, Marte is the best option available for any team that needs a center fielder now. He won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.

Kris Bryant (30): Bryant was already written about in the third basemen post linked above. He’s not really a center fielder, only playing 29 games there over his career so far. But his versatility will be a big part of his appeal to clubs in free agency this winter. That said, he’s likely to be considered a third baseman/corner outfielder and only an emergency option in center.

Bryant will command a huge contract because of his offensive track record and strong platform season. His line this season is .268/.356/.496, wRC+ of 123, producing 3.6 fWAR.

Mark Canha (33): If you don’t regularly watch Oakland games, you might not realize how good Mark Canha has been over the past four seasons. From 2018 to 2021, he hit .249/.366/.441. That amounts to a wRC+ of 126, which ranks 39th among all qualified hitters over that time. That’s buoyed by a 12.1% walk rate, 19th among qualified hitters over those years. His 10.4 fWAR over that span is the 18th highest tally among all outfielders.

In 2018 and 2019, he played 62 and 56 games in center, respectively. But in the shortened 2020 season, it was just 9. This year, it was 23. He’s more of a corner outfielder who can cover center in a pinch than a true center fielder. However, Statcast considers him a competent defender, crediting him with 3 OAA this season overall. And given his late-bloom career, he’s reaching free agency for the first time at a somewhat advanced age. That makes it unlikely for a team to consider him a long-term solution up the middle. But for any team that needs a corner outfielder that could slide over when needed, he’s a great option.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has already been discussed in the aforementioned MLBTR posts about second basemen and shortstops. While not a true everyday center fielder, he’s one of the most intriguing options on this list by virtue of his versatility. This season, he’s played 61 games in center field, and at least eight games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field. In other words, he’s a proper super utility player.

2021 was his fifth-consecutive season with a wRC+ of 106 or higher. His 2021 line is .254/.344/.438, for a wRC+ 113 and 3.1 fWAR. That bat and that defensive versatility makes him a fit on just about every team in the league, meaning he should garner plenty of interest this offseason and will be one of the more fascinating markets to watch.

Utility/Platoon/Bench Types 

  • Delino DeShields (29): DeShields bounced around in the minors for a few organizations this year, eventually seeing a bit of big league action with the Reds. He had a good showing in a small sample size of 25 games, slashing .255/.375/.426. That’s much better than his career slash line of .246/.327/.342.
  • Jarrod Dyson (37): Dyson returned to the Royals this year on a one-year deal and hit a paltry .221/.256/.311 before being put on waivers. He was claimed by the Blue Jays, who used him primarily as a late-game defensive replacement and pinch runner. He could potentially fill a similar role for a team in 2022.
  • Leury Garcia (31): 2021 was the best full season of Garcia’s career, as he hit .267/.335/.376. His wRC+ of 98 was bested only by his 107 in the shortened 2020 season, where he played only 16 games. His 2.0 fWAR in 2021 almost doubled his previous high of 1.2. The most he’s ever played in center field was 2019, where he got into 80 games there. But this year, it was just 26. He’s more super utility guy than proper center fielder, which is why he was already featured in MLBTR’s posts about second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.
  • Billy Hamilton (31): Signed by the White Sox to a minors deal in March, he cracked opening day roster and has managed to hold down his spot all year. With Luis Robert getting most of the playing time in center when healthy, Hamilton was used primarily off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. In parts of 71 games this year, he hit .220/.242/.378 and stole nine bases without getting caught.
  • Ender Inciarte (31): Inciarte has always been revered more for his defensive skills than his bat, but his offense has slumped to new lows over the past couple seasons. This year, in 52 games, he hit just .215/.276/.316 and got released by Atlanta in July. He signed a minors deal with the Reds but opted out of that in September. He’ll probably have to settle for another minors deal this winter.
  • Danny Santana (31): Signed by the Red Sox to a minor league deal in the offseason, Santana has gotten into 38 games for them, including 13 in center. On the season, he hit .181/.252/.345 for a wRC+ of 58. He’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season and will probably be looking at another minor league deal this winter. He’s played second, third and shortstop in the past, but over 2020 and 2021, he’s only seen time at first base and in the outfield.

Players With 2022 Options

Jackie Bradley Jr.(32): Bradley has had a dismal season at the plate, hitting .163/.236/.261, for a wRC+ of 35. He has a player option valued at $11MM, which he will certainly take instead of heading back to the open market with that kind of platform.

Brett Gardner (38): Gardner has a player option valued at $2.3MM, but if he declines, the Yankees have a team option valued at $7.15MM, with a buyout of $1.15MM. Gardner was thrust into everyday duty this season after Aaron Hicks went down with wrist surgery and wound up playing 105 games in center. Overall, he hit .222/.327/.362 for a wRC+ of 93 and 1.4 fWAR. The Yankees may be motivated to keep him around given the uncertainty surrounding Clint Frazier, but $7.15MM would be a big raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. They previously declined club options on Gardner in 2018 and 2020 but subsequently agreed to new contracts, which seems like a distinct possibility for this winter as well.

Odubel Herrera (30): In July of 2019, Herrera was suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. He was designated for assignment after that season and cleared waivers, being outrighted to Triple-A. He made his way back to the roster in April 2021 and got into 124 games this season, hitting .260/.310/.416 for a wRC+ of 93. The Phillies can retain him for another year by picking up his $11.5MM option, but it seems more likely that they will buy him out for $2.5MM. However, if they do pick up the option, they’ll be able to control him for 2023 via another club option, this one valued at $12.5MM.

Jake Marisnick (31): Between the Cubs and Padres this year, Marisnick played 99 games, 52 of those in center field. He was passable at the plate when with the Cubs, slashing .227/.294/.438, but slumped after being traded to San Diego, hitting .188/.264/.208. The one-year deal he signed with the Cubs came with a $4MM mutual option for 2022. Mutual options are almost never exercised, meaning the Padres will likely just give him the $500K buyout.

Joc Pederson (30): Pederson played over 90 games in center in each season from 2015-2017, but it’s been much rarer since then: 32 games in 2018, 2 in 2019, none in 2020 and 26 in 2021. Similar to Canha, he’s more of a corner outfielder who could play center field if you really needed him to. However, his defensive prowess was below Canha’s in 2021, at least according to Statcast. Whereas they valued Canha as 3 OAA, Pederson is -5. Pederson has also seen his offensive numbers slide in recent years. After he logged a wRC+ of 116 or higher in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019, his slash line over the past couple seasons is .227/.304/.416, wRC+ of 93. His one-year deal that he signed with the Cubs for 2021 has a mutual option valued at $10MM, which is likely to be bought out by Atlanta at $2.5MM.

Kevin Pillar (33): Pillar signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason that came with a 2021 salary of $3.6MM, as well as an option for 2022. It’s a $2.9MM player option with no buyout, but if he doesn’t pick it up, the team has a $6.4MM club option with a $1.4MM buyout. In 124 games this year, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 for a wRC+ of 90, while playing all three outfield positions. It seems unlikely that the team would pick up the club option, meaning Pillar will have to decide whether he would rather take the $2.9MM contract or turn that down in favour of the $1.4MM, then try to make up the difference in free agency.

Jurickson Profar (29): Profar was already written about in MLBTR’s posts about first basemen and second basemen. He can opt out of the remaining two years and $14MM on his contract, but seems unlikely to do so, given his meager .235/.335/.336 line on the season.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

Examining A Potential Juan Soto Extension

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It’s a new era for the Washington Nationals. In a major deadline selloff in July, the club traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Daniel Hudson, Brad Hand and Josh Harrison. Anyone who was healthy and productive was shipped out of town. Well, almost anyone. Juan Soto stayed.

Even though the team is clearly stripping things down for the short-term, it always made sense to hang onto an incredible talent like Soto since he still has three years of team control remaining after 2021. The club targeted MLB-ready prospects in their deadline deals such as Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, specifically to get back into contention while Soto is still on the club. But why not keep him around past 2024 and get rid of that ticking clock scenario?

Back in August, Soto said he wanted to go year by year, which would seem to indicate he’s not terribly motivated to put pen to paper. After all, he’s already banked some money, having reached Super Two status last offseason. He and the club avoided arbitration and agreed to a salary of $8.5MM for this season. But players have often made similar statements and still gone on to sign extensions when the numbers were big enough. For example, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor had extension rumors swirling around them for years, rumors that they consistently shrugged off until they finally got what they wanted. In both cases, they were just one season away from free agency.

So, what would it take to lock up someone like Soto and keep him away from the open market? Let’s look at some numbers. Soto is going to finish this season with three years and 134 days’ service time. The largest extension ever given out for a player between three and four years’ service time is Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM contract, signed at the start of the 2014 season. But Soto now has more earning power than Freeman did then. First of all, Freeman didn’t reach Super Two status as Soto did. Soto has also accomplished much more in his career so far, compared to Freeman at that time. In 471 games up to that point, Freddie had a career slash of .285/.358/.466 for a wRC+ of 127 and 7.1 fWAR. In 464 games, Soto’s career slash is .301/.432/.550, for a wRC+ of 156 and 17.7 fWAR.

Fernando Tatis Jr. makes for a closer comparison, though with a slightly smaller track record. When he signed his extension in February of this year, he had two years’ service time, with one of those years being the shortened 2020 season. Through 143 games, he had a line of .301/.374/.582, for a wRC+ of 150 and 6.6 fWAR. It took 14 years and $340MM to get his signature. That’s an average annual value of over $24MM.

Mookie Betts also makes for an interesting comparison, but unlike Tatis, he was much closer to free agency than Soto at the time of his extension. He had between five and six years’ service time and was just one year away from hitting the open market. In the three years leading up to that contract, Betts played in 439 games, slashed .299/.389/.535, for a wRC+ of 140 and 22.4 fWAR. His extension was 12 years, $365MM, average annual value of just over $30MM, the largest extension ever given out in MLB history.

Soto’s skill level is very similar to both Tatis and Betts, but he falls between the two when it comes to service time and proximity to free agency. Therefore, it seems fair to think that he could reasonably ask for an average annual value in between the two, where his salary escalates over his remaining arbitration years and into the free agent years. (Tatis’s contract for instance, escalates from $1MM in 2021 to $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028 and then settles at $36MM for each of the last six years of the deal.)

If Soto could get a contract of 14 years, just as Tatis did, that would take him into his age-36 season. That’s not unreasonable, given that other recent extensions for superstars have gone to a similar range. Betts’ extension goes to his age-39 season, Mike Trout’s to his age-38 season, Lindor to age-37 and Tatis to age-35. If that contract had an average annual value of $28.6MM, that would eclipse $400MM, nudging over a symbolic barrier and surpassing Mookie Betts for the largest extension in history.

That’s a lot of money, and probably too much money for the Nationals, without some creative manoeuvring to go along with it. They have Stephen Strasburg’s contract on the books through 2026, paying him $35MM in each of the next five years. There’s also Patrick Corbin’s deal, which pays him $23MM next year, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024. Add on that theoretical Soto money and they’re in the range of $100MM to just three players in 2024.

That’s probably too rich for a club that’s never had a payroll higher than about $205MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But then again, Soto’s contract figures to be quite high by 2024 anyway. Mookie Betts used the arbitration process to get his salary as high as $27MM in his final year of control, and he wasn’t even a Super Two player. So, extension or not, the club is still facing a scenario where Strasburg, Corbin and Soto take up about half the budget in 2024.

The question then is if they want to commit to a Soto-Strasburg duo earning around $70MM for 2025 and 2026, with Soto being the primary line item for about a decade after that. If the answer to that is yes, then baseball could have its first 400-million-dollar man.

Blue Jays Tried To Acquire Jose Ramirez, Robbie Grossman At Deadline

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In an article about the Blue Jays’ upcoming offseason, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet says that the club tried to acquire Cleveland infielder Jose Ramirez and Detroit outfielder Robbie Grossman at the trade deadline.

This comment came within the context of a discussion he had with general manager Ross Atkins about the lack of diversity in the Blue Jays’ lineup this season. Atkins stated that the righty-heavy lineup was better when left-handed hitters Cavan Biggio and Corey Dickerson were present. “It’s not just that they’re left-handed, but how we are attacked and potentially the pitchers that are used is different,” Atkins said. “Secondarily, we feel it’s important to have balance and not just the same type of hitters up and down your lineup. So some players that are more batting average driven and some players that are more on-base driven with plate discipline. Having both is exceptionally powerful.”

In the end, the Blue Jays only added pitching at the deadline, with Jose Berrios being the headline move. In the season’s final months, the club finished strong and ended up 91-71, just one game away behind the eventual Wild Card participants, the Red Sox and Yankees.

Ramirez and Grossman are both excellent hitters, making it hardly surprising that Toronto, or any club, would be interested in their services. Both certainly would have helped with the righty-heavy situation, as they are both switch hitters. Grossman is usually better as a righty but still above-average from the left side. For his career, his slash line as a righty is .273/.367/.409, wRC+ of 116, whereas the lefty line is .241/.346/.378, wRC+ of 102. This year, his production as a lefty was slightly better, coming in at 105 in terms of wRC+. But his production as a righty was significantly better, coming in at 135 by the same measure. Ramirez, however, is equally excellent from both sides. His career line as a righty is .292/.351/.500 for a wRC+ of 125. As a lefty in his career, he’s hit .272/.356/.502 for a wRC+ of 127. This year, his wRC+ was 139 as a lefty and 135 as a righty.

It is perhaps worth nothing that both players are still controlled by their respective clubs, making it possible that whatever trade scenarios were discussed could be revisited in the offseason, especially considering that the Jays are losing the aforementioned Dickerson to free agency, weakening their already-thin pool of lefty bats. Grossman and the Tigers agreed to a two-year deal before this season, leaving one year remaining at a salary of $5MM. The Tigers have been rebuilding in recent years, making it somewhat logical that they would consider parting with a veteran player who is approaching free agency. But on the other hand, after an awful showing in April, they went 69-66 over the season’s final months and could be looking to add rather than subtract this offseason. And the Jays aren’t especially desperate for outfield help, given they have George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk on hand.

Ramirez, for his part, is controlled through for two more seasons via a pair of club options as part of the extension he signed prior to the 2017 season. The $11MM and $13MM salaries for 2022 and 2023 are both absolute bargains for a player of his caliber, meaning they’re guaranteed to be picked up. However, that also means it will be difficult to pry him loose from Cleveland, even if it’s unclear how aggressive the team plans to be this winter. They finished the season with a lackluster 80-82 record, meaning there could be an argument for selling. But on the other hand, they suffered a large number of injuries to key players, especially in their rotation, and could expect better results in 2022. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they also had an opening day payroll of under $50MM this season, lower than it’s been in a decade, meaning there shouldn’t be too much desire to strip it down even further. As much as he would slot nicely into a Toronto lineup that has Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal as its best third base options, it should take a tremendous trade package to make it happen.

The Blue Jays, for their part, should be able to take on some salary. When asked if the payroll could increase from this year’s $140MM range, Atkins tells Davidi, “That is our desire and that is our understanding.” That wouldn’t be unprecedented for the Toronto club, as their budget was over $160MM in both 2017 and 2018, before dipping as their recent rebuild picked up steam. Now that they’ve returned to contention over the past two seasons, it stands to reason that they would return to that level, if not surpass it. They only have about $65MM committed to next year, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, though that’s before accounting for arbitration raises for players like Berrios, Hernández and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet that the Jays are looking to add to the infield and rotation, which makes sense given they are losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien to free agency in a few weeks. As to whether they have the cash to pull it off, Atkins told Davidi that the Jays could give out a “very significant deal with a lot of term to it, maybe more than one,” but also tried to tamp down expectations by saying that teams “need to have that five- and six-year understanding for what that means for the team and the organization.”

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Upcoming Offseason

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In a chat with reporters today, including Corey Brock of The Athletic, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said that he has the blessing of club chairman John Stanton increase spending this winter. Dipoto stopped short of committing to anything, however, making sure to keep his words vague.

“We do have payroll flexibility, and we’re going to use it to make the team better,” Dipoto said. He continued, “It’s incumbent on us to go add where we can add and improve where we think we can improve. That’s not lost on us. We’ll visit every avenue to do that…We’re just looking to add talent.”

Of course, it makes a lot of sense that the Mariners would be looking to open the proverbial checkbook this offseason, for a couple of reasons. For one thing, they’re coming off a surprise 90-win campaign that saw them stay in the AL Wild Card race until the final day of the season. And secondly, this year’s payroll was less than half of what it was just a few seasons ago.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team payroll got as high a notch above $160MM in 2018. It was after that year’s 89-win campaign that Dipoto and the Mariners famously, or infamously, decided to strip down both the roster and payroll and start rebuilding again. That winter, they unloaded Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura and others, endured two straight losing seasons in 2019 and 2020, before opening this year’s campaign with a payroll under $75MM.

Potent bats will certainly be a primary target in the coming months. “We do want to make our lineup longer,” said Dipoto. “We would like to add offense.” In spite of their 90 wins, their 697 runs scored this season put them tied for 22nd in the majors in that category, and better than just three teams in the American League. (Royals, Orioles and Rangers.)

Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, Jarred Kelenic and Tom Murphy all got over 300 plate appearances with Seattle this season and posted below-average offensive numbers, by measure of wRC+. Seager is likely to depart in free agency, as it seems doubtful the club wants to pick up his $20MM option. That creates one obvious area of potential improvement. Abraham Toro has been floated as Seager’s possible heir at third base, but his wRC+ of 99 since coming over from the Astros matches Seager’s number on the year. If the Mariners want to improve on the infield, they’ll have lots of options, as the market has stars like Marcus Semien and Kris Bryant, as well as solid regulars such as Chris Taylor, Eduardo Escobar, Josh Harrison or Brad Miller.

The club will also be on the hunt for pitching, as Dipoto said it is “going to be a focus for us. The likelihood for us is it’s going to come as a starter.” Seattle’s rotation certainly has room for improvement, as it was fairly pedestrian this year, ranking 19th in ERA, 23rd in strikeout rate, 13th in walk rate and 22nd in WAR. They will also be losing deadline-pickup Tyler Anderson to free agency, leaving them with a rotation of Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. Yusei Kikuchi would have seemed like a lock to be in that group a few months ago, but had a terrible second half and got bumped from the rotation in September. The Mariners will likely decline their four-year option over him, but Kikuchi would still likely return in that scenario as he would then have a player option valued at $13MM. Whether they want to give him another shot or figure out another path forward remains to be seen. Prospects like Matt Brash, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock could help out eventually, but none of them have big league experience as of yet.

This year’s crop of free agent starters is loaded, with the top end featuring names like Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, though they could also aim for buy-low wildcards like Chris Archer, Zack Greinke or taking a flyer on James Paxton again.

Regardless of how it plays out, it should be interesting, as it always is when “Trader Jerry” is involved. Although, it seems there’s at least a chance that this offseason is focused less on wild trades and more on straightforward additions in free agency.

Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos Discusses Deadline Moves

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In a chat with Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Atlanta’s general manager Alex Anthopoulos discussed the moves that he and his club made before this year’s trade deadline. In particular, they focus on the Adam Duvall trade and how, although the discussions with the Marlins and general manager Kim Ng had been going on for over a week, the final deal came together in the last 24 hours.

“We had been talking to them about Duvall for at least 10 days and it just wasn’t going anywhere,” Anthopoulos said. “That [late-night] call was a breakthrough conversation, but there would still have to be discussions the next day. Then finally around 12:30 or 1 o’clock, we got that deal done.” Presumably, it was during this late-night call that Anthopoulos put catcher Alex Jackson on the table, as he was the only other player involved in the deal. It is perhaps not a coincidence that, three weeks later, the club and catcher Travis d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to make up for the subtracted depth at the position.

“After that call, it felt like this was going to happen… We wanted to talk about it internally, and [the Marlins] were going to do the same thing.” Bowman then goes on to detail the acquisitions of Eddie Rosario, Richard Rodriguez and, finally, Jorge Soler. As Bowman writes, “Around 3:30 p.m. ET, assistant general manager Jason Paré suggested the Braves call Kansas City one more time.”

These details give some insight into the collaborative nature of front offices and the different factors at play. As much as Alex Anthopoulos, or other GMs, might occasionally seem like rogue traders, a baseball front office is a multicellular organism that requires good rapport, within itself and to other clubs.

Of course, the other factor that is always present is the budget. Anthopoulos and his team got a midseason boost in that regard, as he told Bowman that Atlanta’s chairman Terry McGuirk offered an increase based on their good early-season revenues. “He basically gave me a large amount of money to work with. I was ecstatic. That’s a credit to those fans who came out and supported this club and put us in this position.”

Due to the ability to take on these contracts, the club upgraded their bullpen and totally remade their outfield, propelling them to a strong finish to the season. On the day of the deadline, July 31st, Atlanta was actually below .500, sitting on a record of 52-54, five games behind the Mets in the NL East. But from August 1st onwards, they went 36-19, leapfrogged the Mets, cruised to a fourth-consecutive division crown and now find themselves preparing for an NLDS matchup with the Brewers that begins on Friday.

Red Sox Outright Jose Iglesias, Yairo Munoz

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The Red Sox have outrighted infielders Jose Iglesias and Yairo Munoz, according to a team announcement. This now leaves their 40-man roster at 39, giving them the opportunity to potentially make an addition before tomorrow’s ALDS kick-off. (Munoz had been on the COVID-19 related injured list since September 1st and thus wasn’t taking up a roster spot.)

Subtracting Iglesias from the roster isn’t terribly surprising, since he is unable to play for the club again this season anyhow on account of being signed after the August 31st deadline. Players joining an organization after that date are ineligible for postseason play with their new club. Iglesias was released by the Angels September 3rd and signed with the Red Sox September 6th. He is also heading into free agency after the postseason, making it a formality to cut him loose a bit early.

The club could now potentially add a player from their minor league system to the 40-man roster for postseason eligibility. Players in the organization but not on the 40-man roster before September 1 can still participate in the playoffs via a petition to the Commissioner’s Office, a fairly common maneuver throughout the league.

Another roster question hanging over the club is whether or not J.D. Martinez will be on it. The slugger hurt his ankle recently and was left off the roster for the Wild Card game. As noted by Jon Morosi of MLB Network, Martinez took the field today and “tested his ankle at low intensity.” When Martinez was asked if he would play tomorrow, he gave the noncommittal answer, “You’ll find out.” Of course, any player that the Red Sox could potentially call up would pale in comparison to a healthy Martinez, who had yet another excellent season at the plate, hitting .286/.349/.518, for a wRC+ of 128.

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