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Cubs To Sign Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Cody Bellinger. It will be a one-year deal with a $12.5MM salary and a $5MM buyout on a mutual option, bringing the guarantee to $17.5MM. Bellinger is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bellinger, 27, has been one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, given that he has shown incredible upside in the past but has been in a dismal downturn in recent years. Over his first three seasons, 2017 to 2019, Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% better than league average during that time. That included a 2019 season where he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also provided excellent outfield defense, leading to a tally of 7.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.

Bellinger slid a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average with his wRC+ finishing at 112, but a significant drop-off from previous seasons. An ill-advised celebration in the postseason caused a shoulder injury that required surgery and he hasn’t seemed himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then bounced back a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.

Despite those down years, Bellinger’s salary kept climbing for a few reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time going into 2020, on the heels of his MVP campaign, as a Super Two player. He quickly jumped up to $11.5MM in his first year of eligibility and then to $16.1MM for 2021 after having a diminished but still productive 2020. Since the arbitration system is designed to push salaries up, Bellinger jumped to $17MM for 2022 despite his poor performance in the prior season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected another jump to $18.1MM for 2023 but the Dodgers decided to cut bait and non-tendered Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving on to a new club, they will have to chart a new course in center field for 2023.

Despite the rough few years Bellinger has had, he still found robust interest as a free agent. At one point, Heyman reported that there were 11 teams at the table. That’s due to a couple of factors, one of them being that Bellinger was looking for a one-year deal so that he could potentially return to form and then go back to free agency in search of a better deal. That opened the door to many suitors who would normally be wary of a lengthy commitment but would happily take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. There’s also the fact that Bellinger provides a decent floor with his speed and excellent center field defense. Despite a subpar batting line in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR by stealing 17 bases and producing six Outs Above Average in center field.

The Cubs were linked to Bellinger a few weeks ago and make plenty of sense as a landing spot for him. The rebuilding team had a rotating cast of characters playing center field for them this year, including Christopher Morel, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez and Michael Hermosillo. All of those players were subpar at the plate except for Morel, who is a natural infielder and produced poor defensive numbers on the grass. The Cubs have some intriguing outfield prospects that could fill this role in the long run, but Bellinger and Ian Happ are set to become free agents a year from now, meaning there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya Suzuki, who’s controlled through 2026, is the only outfielder penciled in for the long haul.

Financially, there’s no real impediment for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes their commitments to just under $140MM for next year, according to Roster Resource. They had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but have been over $203MM in recent seasons and should have plenty of space still to work with.

The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years but could be aggressive this offseason in trying to return to contention in 2023. Whether they are successful or not, Bellinger could potentially be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a useful ballplayer even if his bat doesn’t rebound to previous levels. If he and the team are both playing well, that’s a great outcome for all involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term deal means he should be able to be flipped at the deadline for prospects. As mentioned, even if Bellinger doesn’t truly bounce back, he can still be a useful player with his glovework and baserunning, meaning he could still be an interested trade chip regardless.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first with Bellinger going to the Cubs. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the $17.5MM guarantee. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the structure of the $12.5MM salary with $5MM buyout on the mutual option.

Nationals Have Had Discussions With Jordan Lyles

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said yesterday that the club plans to pursue rotation upgrades and it’s possible they have some self-imposed urgency in that search. Talk Nats reports that Rizzo wants to have a pitcher locked in before the end of the Winter Meetings, which conclude tomorrow. On a related note, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports that the club has had discussions with free agent Jordan Lyles.

The fact that the Nats are interested in starting pitchers is hardly shocking, given the uncertainty they have in that part of their roster. Stephen Strasburg has pitched just over 30 innings over the past three seasons combined and still isn’t sure what he can do in the future. Patrick Corbin still has two seasons remaining on his contract but has seen his ERA climb in four straight years, ending up at 6.31 in 2022. Apart from those two, the other rotation options are limited in experience and have concerns with either their health or performance. Josiah Gray has a 5.17 ERA through 219 1/3 career innings. Cade Cavalli made one MLB start before shoulder inflammation ended his 2022. MacKenzie Gore used to be the top pitching prospect in the sport but lost his command over 2020 and 2021. He got back on track in 2022 but then missed the second half of the season due to elbow inflammation.

Adding a stable veteran like Lyles into the mix would be plenty sensible, as that’s essentially the same role he just played in Baltimore in 2022. The rebuilding O’s had a similarly unclear rotation and signed Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a club option for 2023. Lyles ended up making 32 starts for the club, absorbing 179 innings. His 4.42 ERA and 18.6% strikeout rate weren’t elite, but he limited walks to a 6.7% rate.

Those results are roughly in line with the numbers Lyles, now 32, has put up over his 12-year career. The O’s could have retained him for another season via a club option valued at $11MM but instead opted for the $1MM buyout, returning him to the open market. Most of the win-now teams will be focused on the starters with larger upside, with Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander already off the board and Carlos Rodón seeming to have abundant interest. Back-end options like Lyles could wait around and see if those contenders will circle back to them later in the offseason, but some of them will also get some early interest. The O’s have already signed Kyle Gibson, effectively replacing Lyles as the veteran innings eater on the team. Meanwhile, the Rockies have re-signed José Ureña, the Tigers have added Matt Boyd and the Pirates have added Vince Velasquez. If the Nats like Lyles as their target for the stable vet, it’s possible for a deal to come together quickly.

NPB Posting Window Expanded From 30 To 45 Days

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The posting system that allows players to move from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues has been expanded from 30 days to 45 days, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

If a player in Japan wants to pursue a contract with an MLB club, the NPB team can “post” the player. In the past, this opened up a 30-day window where the player and his representatives could negotiate with all 30 major league teams. If they didn’t find a contract to their liking, the player would return to their NPB club. If they did find a deal, the signing team would also owe money to the NPB team, on top of what they pay the player. The amount of that fee would be relative to the size of the contract given, with 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

It seems that this system is all still in place, just with the window being extended from 30 days to 45 days. This year, this will impact at least two players: Masataka Yoshida and Shintaro Fujinami. It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that this will not impact another NPB player in Kodai Senga, as he has accrued enough service time to become a proper free agent that is not subject to the posting system. Yoshida’s window will reportedly start tomorrow and go until January 20. Fujinami was posted on December 1, meaning his window should be closing around January 15.

Assuming this is a permanent change and not a temporary exception, it will also have a bearing on all future NPB players who are posted in the future.

Pirates In Agreement With Vince Velasquez On One-Year Deal

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The Pirates and righty Vince Velasquez are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com. Velasquez will make $3.15MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Velasquez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Velasquez, 31 in June, has pitched in each of the past eight MLB seasons, mostly with the Phillies but also with the Astros, Padres and White Sox. He has occasionally tantalized with some high strikeout numbers but has rarely been able to be consistently effective for extended stretches. His lowest ERA in a single season is 4.12, which came back in 2016, though he’s also been above 5.00 in three separate seasons, including one above 6.00. His career high in terms of strikeout rate is 29.9%, in the shortened 2020 campaign, but it’s also been as low as 21.6%. His walk rate has been as low as 7.8% but also as high as 11.8%.

All told, Velasquez has 726 1/3 innings in his career with a 4.93 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Those numbers vaguely resemble an effective back-end starter, which Velasquez has occasionally been, just not reliably. Last year, he signed a $3MM deal with the White Sox and began the year in the rotation but was hit hard and bumped to the bullpen before the end of May, only making two starts for the rest of the year.

It’s unclear if the Pirates plan to use him as a starter or a reliever, but he fits the mold of the low-cost rotation addition they have done in recent years. They signed Tyler Anderson to a $2.5MM deal in 2021 and traded him to the Mariners at the deadline for prospects Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada. Going into 2022, they inked Jose Quintana to a $2MM deal and later flipped him to the Cardinals, alongside Chris Stratton, for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez. It’s possible that they have similar designs on Velasquez this year, with the veteran ideally holding down a rotation spot and pitching well enough to become a midseason target of other clubs.

The Pirates have been aggressively rebuilding in recent years, finishing last in the National League Central in each of the past four seasons, tying with the Reds in 2022. It’s unlikely they will suddenly jump into contention in 2023, but they have been looking to bolster their young roster with some veteran additions on short-term deals. They acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays and signed free agent Carlos Santana for their first base/designated hitter mix, then signed Jarlín García for some left-handed relief. It was reported earlier this morning that starting pitching was on the list with the club looking to potentially add a couple of arms into the rotation. If Velasquez is indeed one of them, he will join Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras, with JT Brubaker likely taking up a spot as well. There are some in-house options who could be in the mix as well, including Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, Bryse Wilson and Zach Thompson, with health and performance likely determining who gets the nod most frequently. If they find enough success in that group to bump Velasquez to the bullpen, he posted a 4.25 ERA as a reliever in 2022 compared to a 5.26 as a starter.

Orix Buffaloes Officially Post Masataka Yoshida

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12:55pm: The posting window has actually been changed from 30 days to 45 days, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Feinsand adds that Yoshida’s window will officially open tomorrow at 8am Eastern and go until 5pm on January 20th.

12:20pm: The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have officially posted outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll have 30 days to find a deal with a major league team or else return to the Buffaloes for 2023.

Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams. It was reported back in November that this posting was coming, but NPB contracts generally run until the start of December, which delayed the official move until now.

This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.

Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.

There will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with Yoshida’s representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023. Yoshida has already been connected to the Blue Jays, Mariners and Yankees, with plenty of other teams sure to emerge in the next few weeks.

Mets Sign Three To Minor League Deals

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The Mets have signed three right-handed relievers to minor league deals, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Tommy Hunter, Sean Reid-Foley and Jimmy Yacabonis have joined the organization and will presumably be invited to major league Spring Training, though no formal announcement of that nature has been made.

Hunter is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, as he’s currently 36 years old and has 494 MLB games under his belt. He has an even ERA of 4.00 thus far in his career, often succeeding with strong control. His career walk rate is 5.5%, well below this year’s MLB average for relievers of 9.1%. Outside of an injury-marred 2021, he’s never posted a rate higher than 6.9% in any single season. In 2022, he posted a 2.42 ERA but injuries limited him to just 22 1/3 innings. That’s been a recurring issue in recent years, as Hunter hasn’t reached 25 innings in a season since 2018.

Reid-Foley, 27, has pitched in the past five MLB seasons, the first three with the Blue Jays and the last three with the Mets. He came to New York from Toronto in the Steven Matz trade. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will miss at least part of the 2023 season. He was non-tendered by the Mets at the end of the season. He has a 4.66 ERA in 102 1/3 career innings, along with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 13.7% walk rate and 40.4% ground ball rate.

Yacabonis, 31 in March, put up an 8.36 ERA in 14 big league innings in 2022 but was much better in the minors. He tossed 33 2/3 innings down on the farm for various teams with a 3.21 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. He was outrighted by the Rays in November and elected free agency.

The Mets have a lot of work to do in rebuilding their bullpen as Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May all hit free agency. Edwin Díaz was also in that group, though he was quickly re-signed. They will likely have more moves to come in bolstering the bullpen, but it’s understandable why they would look to add multiple depth options to the system.

Pirates To Sign Jarlín García

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12:20pm: Mackey relays that the 2023 salary will be $2.5MM with the club option for 2024 valued at $3.25MM.

11:47am: The Pirates are close to a deal with left-hander Jarlín García, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It will apparently be a one-year deal with a club option. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says the deal is done, pending a physical. The financials of the deal aren’t yet publicly known. The lefty is represented by Paul Kinzer.

García, 30 in January, has seen MLB action in each of the past six seasons, the first three with the Marlins and the last three with the Giants. He made 58 appearances for the Giants in 2022, logging 65 innings and finishing the year with a 3.74 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate.

The Giants could have retained García for 2023 via arbitration, as he has between five and six years of MLB service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected García for a salary of $2.4MM but the Giants instead opted to non-tender him and send him to the open market.

As of this moment, the Pirates don’t have a single left-handed pitcher on their 40-man roster. That makes García a very sensible addition for the club. Like most southpaws, he fares better against batters that hit from left side. For his career, lefties have hit García to the tune of .206/.268/.338 while righties have a line of .235/.304/.428. The Pirates have been deep in rebuild territory for a few years now and don’t seem likely to suddenly jump into contention but García can potentially help them in multiple ways this year. He should give the club an option to tackle tough lefty hitters on opposing teams and will likely find himself in trade rumors at the deadline if he’s successful.

Nationals Looking For Upgrades In Rotation, Lineup

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo met with the media at the Winter Meetings today. As part of that session, he mentioned starting pitching and “another offensive player” as the club’s needs, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The bat would ideally be left-handed, reports Alden González of ESPN.

The Nats were the worst team in baseball in 2022, after leaning hard into rebuilding mode in recent years. Superstars like Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto were all sent to other teams in exchange for prospects, leaving the club with a roster largely consisting of unproven youngsters and veteran placeholders. As such, there are many areas of the roster where they could easily find upgrades this winter.

The rotation is certainly one of those areas, as they have plenty of uncertainty there. Stephen Strasburg has pitched just over 30 innings over the past three seasons combined and still isn’t sure what he can do in the future. Patrick Corbin still has two seasons remaining on his contract but has seen his ERA climb in four straight years, ending up at 6.31 in 2022. Apart from those two, the other rotation options are limited in experience and have concerns with either their health or performance. Josiah Gray has a 5.17 ERA through 219 1/3 career innings. Cade Cavalli made one MLB start before shoulder inflammation ended his 2022. MacKenzie Gore used to be the top pitching prospect in the sport but lost his command over 2020 and 2021. He got back on track in 2022 but then missed the second half of the season due to elbow inflammation.

Given all those question marks, a solid veteran presence would make sense. This theoretical pitcher could both provide a stabilizing presence for the club while also turning into a trade chip, getting flipped at the deadline for prospects. The Nats aren’t likely to beat the market for highly sought after hurlers like Carlos Rodón or Jameson Taillon, but they could perhaps look to other options like Ross Stripling, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski or Drew Smyly.

As for the bat the club is looking to add, the most logical place would be the outfield, given that they have plenty of infield options. Youngsters CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia are likely to get the playing time in the middle infield to see if they can establish themselves as core pieces. As for the corners, the club will probably give first baseman Joey Meneses a chance to see if his rookie breakout at the age of 30 was real. Faded prospect Carter Kieboom could get the bulk of the playing time at third if he seems healthy and on track in the spring. The club signed Jeimer Candelario as a backup plan for Kieboom, though he could also move over to the first base/designated hitter mix if Kieboom continues to struggle. Meanwhile, veteran Ildemaro Vargas is on hand to play a utility role or slot into any position that is vacated by injury or underperformance.

In the outfield, things seem a bit less settled. Lane Thomas seems likely to get one of the spots on the grass after having a decent showing over the past two seasons. His ability to plan center field perhaps spells trouble for Victor Robles, who is a strong defender and has speed but has posted a wRC+ under 70 for three straight years now. Alex Call had a nice debut in 2022 but in a small sample of just 47 games. There’d be plenty of room for a veteran addition here, with the club seemingly preferring a lefty since Thomas, Call, Robles, Meneses and Kieboom are all righties. It’s unlikely that the Nats would beat the market for a Cody Bellinger or a Michael Conforto, since both seem to have plenty of interest. However, veterans like David Peralta, Kevin Kiermaier or Corey Dickerson can all likely be had on one-year deals without breaking the bank, though those are just speculative fits. Much like the planned addition of a starting pitcher, there’s plenty of sense in adding a veteran to help guide the younger players while also potentially adding someone who can be traded in the middle of the year.

The Nats would surely love to improve on a season where they lost 107 games, but short term contention isn’t likely to be a priority with the holes on the roster and the strengths of their opponents. The Mets have been aggressively spending, including reportedly signing Justin Verlander earlier today. The Phillies are coming off a World Series appearance and have reportedly added Trea Turner. The Braves have locked up most of their young players to extensions and seem poised to contend for a long time. It will be a long climb for the Nats to catch those clubs, which will likely start with some modest moves for 2023.

Angels Looking For Shortstop Upgrades, Back-End Reliever

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The Angels have been one of the more active teams this winter and still have some more moves planned. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they are looking for upgrades at shortstop. However, he adds that the club’s immediate focus is a back-end reliever.

The club’s interest in shortstop upgrades is hardly surprising, as they’ve been looking for solutions at the position for a while now. Andrelton Simmons held down the spot from 2016 to 2020, largely providing offense near league average alongside his customary excellent defense. After Simmons reached free agency, the club tried José Iglesias at the position in 2021, which didn’t work out.

Going into 2022, they tried some more glove-first options by adding Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez to join David Fletcher as players in the mix. Fletcher missed most of the year with injuries, leading to Velazquez getting 100 starts at the position this year. His glovework was rated well, but he struggled at the plate, hitting just .196/.236/.304 for a wRC+ of 50. Even if Fletcher were healthy, it’s not guaranteed he would have been much better since he’s been in the league five years now with his only above-average season at the plate coming in the shortened 2020 campaign. Luis Rengifo had a nice year on offense in 2022 but is probably overmatched as an everyday shortstop in the field, better suited to play second base or a utility role.

Though it’s logical that the club would look for upgrades, they may not be a contender for the top free agents. This year’s crop of free agents features a group called the “big four” at the top of the market: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. However, Rosenthal reports that they are more likely to join more obvious contenders and that the Angels are wary of the soaring prices. Turner reportedly signed with the Phillies today for $300MM over 11 years. If the Angels are looking for options outside of the that group, the free agent market features Elvis Andrus and their old friend Iglesias, while players potentially available in trade include Amed Rosario and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Turning to the club’s bullpen, that’s another area where it’s sensible for them to look for upgrades. Angels’ relievers collectively posted a 3.97 ERA last year, placing them 18th out of the 30 clubs in the league. They also traded Raisel Iglesias to the Braves at the deadline, leaving them without a surefire lockdown closer. Rosenthal didn’t mention any specific targets, but Kenley Jansen is one of the few proven closers available in free agency. Since the Braves have Iglesias under contract for another three years and are getting near the luxury tax line, it’s possibly he will have greater employment opportunities elsewhere. It would make for a fitting endnote to the Iglesias trade if the Angels replaced him by grabbing Atlanta’s closer, but there are other options. Some of the other relievers who are available in free agency include Carlos Estévez, Adam Ottavino, Matt Moore and many more.

2023 figures to be a pivotal season for the franchise, as the team is reportedly for sale and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani is entering his final season before free agency. The club has been busy so far this winter, signing Tyler Anderson to upgrade their rotation while adding Gio Urshela to the infield and Hunter Renfroe to the outfield. The middle infield and bullpen stand out as the most obvious areas to continue upgrading, and it seems that’s exactly where the club is looking to make their next moves.

Phillies To Sign Trea Turner To 11-Year Deal

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The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.

Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.

The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.

There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.

It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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