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Marlins Notes: Meyer, Eder, Sanchez

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The Marlins’ rotation has been a common point of discussion this offseason, with Miami considering ways to deal veteran pitching as a means of addressing the offense. The main impetus for the front office is their stockpile of arms, a group that includes a few talented young pitchers working back from serious injuries.

Former third overall pick Max Meyer cemented himself as one of the sport’s top prospects before his call-up last July. The organization’s excitement for that debut turned quickly, as the 23-year-old blew out his elbow during his second big league start. He required Tommy John surgery a couple weeks later.

As he nears the six-month mark in his recovery, Meyer updated Kyle Sielaff of the Hot Stove Show on his progress. The right-hander indicated he’s built up arm strength and hopes to be able to start throwing next month. “I think early February — even February 1 — is when I’m going to start throwing,” Meyer told Sielaff. “Been starting to get the elbow moving a little bit. … When Spring Training rolls around, I’ll be throwing with all those guys — I don’t know with the team or not — but I’ll be throwing. It’s coming up here pretty soon.”

The young starter will surely take things slowly, with Christina De Nicola of MLB.com writing that he’s expected to begin with a long toss program once he’s again able to throw. De Nicola adds that general manager Kim Ng indicated last month Meyer was likely to miss the entire 2023 season rehabbing from the procedure, which often comes with a recovery time pushing or exceeding 14 months. There’s no indication that timeline has changed — he’ll certainly need multiple months to gradually build back into game shape from the first time he can pick up a ball — but it’s encouraging he seems to be progressing well thus far.

Meyer isn’t Miami’s only touted young pitcher working back from Tommy John. Left-hander Jake Eder had broken out as one of the more interesting arms in the minors through 15 excellent Double-A starts early in the 2021 campaign. The Vanderbilt product blew out and underwent TJS at the end of August that year; he missed all of last season recovering. De Nicola writes that Eder, who first began throwing roughly 10 months after the operation, is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training.

Eder is not yet on the 40-man roster and will surely begin the upcoming season at an upper minor league affiliate. Those 15 Double-A starts are the 24-year-old’s only professional experience, and the organization has the MLB pitching depth to not rush Eder to the big leagues. If his stuff returns at pre-surgery levels and he again thrives in the upper minors, it seems possible he could put himself on the radar for a call-up later in the season.

Sixto Sánchez, meanwhile, has now lost two consecutive seasons to shoulder issues. Still just 24, the former top prospect and centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade has fallen down the Miami depth chart in the wake of those injuries. Sánchez underwent arthroscopic surgery on the shoulder last October, with the club announcing at the time he was expected back for Spring Training. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald provides a reasonably promising update, writing that Sánchez has been throwing bullpen sessions of late. Backstop Nick Fortes, who recently caught one of Sánchez’s workouts, expressed optimism about the young pitcher’s form heading into exhibition play.

Marlins Notes: Meyer, Pitching Staff, Mattingly, Coaches

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The Marlins will likely be without top pitching prospect Max Meyer for the entire 2023 season after he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of July. Whether it’s a return late in the ’23 season or for Opening Day 2024, the former No. 3 overall pick is still a pivotal arm for the organization’s future — but a role has yet to be determined. Scouting reports on Meyer have long suggested that he could eventually land in the bullpen, and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre tells Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that the right-hander indeed has traits that “lean more on a bullpen guy.” Stottlemyre emphasized that Meyer will still get a look as a starter to “see how his changeup develops, see how he reacts to getting through the lineup three times” but also noted that Meyer’s elite slider, max-effort delivery and general mentality on the mound all lend themselves to potential bullpen work. “He is wired a lot like a bullpen guy,” said Stottlemyre.

Jackson’s piece also contains detailed thoughts from both Stottlemyre and outgoing skipper Don Mattingly on a number of the team’s young arms, including Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Sixto Sanchez and top prospect Eury Perez. General manager Kim Ng, meanwhile, appeared as a guest in the booth during yesterday’s game and broadly discussed the team’s rotation depth (Twitter link, with video, via Bally Sports Florida).

Some more notes out of Miami…

  • Although Mattingly is on the way out as the team’s manager, he revealed yesterday that he’s at least spoken to Marlins owner Bruce Sherman about the possibility of remaining with the organization in another role (Twitter link via Jackson). The 61-year-old Mattingly stated that, while nothing has been agreed upon yet, “nothing’s off the table” either. Mattingly noted at the time of his release that he was looking forward to spending time with his family but also “to any future endeavors,” strongly suggesting that he does not plan to retire and that he’s open to opportunities both with the Marlins or with another club. There will be quite a few managerial openings this winter, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mattingly surface as a candidate for several of them. The Rangers, Angels, Phillies, White Sox and Blue Jays all currently have “interim” managers after in-season dismissals of their Opening Day personnel, though some of those interim skippers could be moved into a full-time role for the 2023 season.
  • Marlins general manager Kim Ng was a guest in the booth on yesterday’s broadcast and said that any decisions pertaining to the coaching staff will likely wait until a new manager is hired (Twitter link, with video, via Bally Sports Florida). MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola wrote recently, however, that the Marlins will likely try to retain Stottlemyre as pitching coach, though they’ll likely have competition from other clubs in that regard. “I guess fortunate thing for Mel and unfortunate thing for the organization, Mel’s probably going to have options,” Mattingly said last week when asked about Stottlemyre.

Marlins Place Trevor Rogers On Injured List, Designate Willians Astudillo

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The Marlins have made a handful of moves in advance of tonight’s series opener with the Mets (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 26, with lower back spasms. Miami also selected reliever Jake Fishman and infielder Charles Leblanc onto the big league roster, designating Willians Astudillo for assignment. To clear a second 40-man roster spot, the Marlins transferred Max Meyer from the 15-day to the 60-day IL. That was a formality, as the top prospect is set to undergo Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the next year-plus.

Rogers had been slated to start tomorrow, but the Marlins will obviously have to find a replacement. The IL stint is the latest in what has been a frustrating season for the southpaw, who looked to have broken out as one of the game’s top young pitchers a year ago. Rogers pitched to a 2.64 ERA and earned an All-Star nod in 2021, but he’s gone in the opposite direction this season. He owns just a 5.85 ERA through 87 2/3 innings, watching his strikeout rate plummet from 28.5% to 20.8% in the process.

Astudillo has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. The former Twins utilityman signed a minor league deal with Miami over the winter, and he’s posted an excellent .321/.364/.557 showing through 33 Triple-A contests. Astudillo, owner of perhaps the sport’s best bat-to-ball skills, has only gone down on strikes in 4.3% of his minor league plate appearances, but he’s not made much of an impact in 21 MLB contests. Despite fanning in just three of his 55 trips to the dish, he owns a meager .241/.255/.296 showing with one homer and a 1.8% walk rate.

The Marlins will presumably again place Astudillo on waivers over the next few days. He’s already passed through the wire unclaimed this year and accepted an outright assignment to their top affiliate in Jacksonville. It’s possible he eventually winds up back with the Jumbo Shrimp, but he’d again have the right to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Leblanc and the aptly-named Fishman are each joining the Marlins for what’ll be their major league debuts. The former is a 26-year-old infielder who was a fourth-round draftee of the Rangers out of the University of Pittsburgh back in 2016. Leblanc spent six years in the Texas system, mostly splitting his time between second and third base, before signing a minor league deal with Miami last offseason. The right-handed hitter has impressed over 360 plate appearances in Jacksonville, hitting .302/.381/.503 with 14 home runs. Leblanc’s 27.2% strikeout rate is higher than ideal, but he’s done enough from a power perspective to get an MLB call.

Fishman, 27, also entered pro ball in that 2016 draft. He fell to the 30th round, where the Blue Jays selected the Union College product. Fishman briefly reached Triple-A in the Toronto system before qualifying for minor league free agency during the 2020-21 offseason. He’s spent the past two years working as a multi-inning reliever in Jacksonville. This season, the southpaw has an excellent 1.87 ERA with a robust 54.3% ground-ball rate across 43 1/3 innings, posting roughly average strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9.1%, respectively).

Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer’s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.

Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.

Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.

The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.

Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.

Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

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The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Marlins Roster Moves

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The Marlins made a number of roster moves today, including moving All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the 60-day injured list. Anthony Bender and Cody Poteet were also moved to the 60-day injured list. Those moves cleared 40-man roster spots for Willians Astudillo, Jeff Brigham, and Huascar Brazoban, who were all added to the active roster. To create those spots on the active roster, Brian Anderson was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder strain, while Max Meyer and Tommy Nance were both placed on the 15-day injured list, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).

The Chisolm move is the most noteworthy (if expected) move of the bunch. The All-Star was recently diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back. The Marlins hope he can return by the end of the season, though that’s definitely in doubt.

It’s equally disappointing to see Meyer make a quick trip to the injured list after just two big league starts. The 23-year-old surrendered five earned runs in seven innings while striking out six and walking two.

Nance, a 31-year-old reliever, joins Meyer on the injured list. The former Cub has a 5.76 ERA/3.28 FIP in 19 outings covering 25 innings this season for the Marlins. The power righty misses a fair amount of bats, but struggled at times with his command. For the year, he has struck out a robust 29.9 percent of opponents, but he has also walked 11.1 percent of opposing hitters, a number that needs to come down in order for him to become an effective late-inning arm.

Brazoban made his Major League debut today, throwing an arsenal based around a sinker that neared 98 mph on average. The 32-year-old Dominican was playing in the independent league last season. Brigham, 30, has made 37 appearances for the Marlins over the past three seasons, posting a 5.01 ERA/5.32 FIP across 55 2/3 innings. Astudillo has stepped to the plate 38 times for the Marlins this season, slashing .270/.289/.351.

Injury Updates: Trout, Rodriguez, Buxton, Thielbar, Meyer

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Mike Trout hasn’t played since July 12 due to back spasms, and that absence morphed into a stint on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his left ribcage.  The Angels placed the superstar on the IL on July 18, but head trainer Mike Frostad told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group) that Trout will miss more than the minimum 10 days.  Trout received a cortisone shot in his back “a few days ago.”

It isn’t yet known when Trout could return, and any sort of lingering problem is obviously bad news for the Angels and their fans — especially after last season, when Trout played in only 36 games due to a seemingly minor calf injury that simply never healed.  Trout returned in 2022 to deliver another outstanding set of numbers, though it isn’t helped an Angels team that has fallen apart after an impressive first five weeks of play.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Julio Rodriguez has missed both of the Mariners’ games in the second half, as the rookie star is day-to-day with left wrist soreness.  Rodriguez first suffered the injury while sliding during a stolen-base attempt last Sunday, and he told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other reporters) that he felt more soreness after participating in the Home Run Derby on during Monday’s All-Star week festivities.  However, the injury is “feeling better already,” and Rodriguez doesn’t think he’ll miss much time.  Rodriguez has exploded onto the scene in his first season, hitting .275/.337/.477 with 15 homers and 21 steals over his first 380 plate appearances in the majors.
  • Byron Buxton will miss the Twins’ weekend series in Detroit, as the outfielder received a PRP injection in his right knee on Wednesday.  (Megan Ryan of The Minneapolis Star Tribune was among those to report the news.)  Buxton has been plagued by tendinitis in his right knee for much of the season, though he opted to play in the All-Star Game for the first time rather than sit out the entire break.  Since Minnesota has off-days sandwiched around this two-game series against the Tigers, Buxton will receive five days off anyway, and the hope is that he’ll be ready to play when the Twins face the Brewers on Tuesday.
  • In other Twins injury news, Minnesota placed left-hander Caleb Thielbar on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to July 19) due to a left hamstring strain.  Right-hander Yennier Cano was called up to take Thielbar’s spot on the active roster.  Thielbar has a rather misleading 4.84 ERA over 35 1/3 relief innings this season, as he has outstanding hard-contact and strikeout numbers, plus only a 3.00 SIERA.
  • Max Meyer made only 10 pitches before exiting tonight’s game due to what the Marlins described as right elbow discomfort.  The ominous diagnosis comes on the heels of some ulnar nerve irritation that sidelined Meyer while he was pitching in the minors earlier this season.  One of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Meyer was making his second career start after allowing five runs over 5 1/3 frames in his July 16 debut.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Marlins To Promote Max Meyer

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The Marlins are set to promote top pitching prospect Max Meyer, the team announced on Twitter (with video of him learning the news). Craig Mish of SportsGrid reports (Twitter link) that Meyer will start on Saturday against the Phillies.

It’ll be the major league debut for the right-hander, who flew through the minors. Miami selected Meyer with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. The University of Minnesota product was the first pitcher off the board, and he’s excelled over his first two years in pro ball. There was no minor league season during his draft year because of the pandemic, and the Fish aggressively assigned Meyer to Double-A Pensacola for his first game action in 2021.

Meyer handled the assignment with aplomb, pitching to a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts. He punched out an above-average 27.2% of opponents while inducing ground-balls on more than half the batted balls he surrendered. Meyer’s walks were a touch high, but it was a promising showing for his first full pro season. He earned a late-season cameo at Triple-A Jacksonville and headed into last offseason as one of the sport’s better pitching prospects.

Entering the 2022 campaign, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted Meyer among the game’s top 100 overall prospects. He drew praise for a mid-upper 90s fastball and a slider that some evaluators considered the best single pitch in the 2020 draft class. The quality of his changeup was a bit more divisive, with FanGraphs and ESPN projecting it to average or better but BA considering it more of a fringy offering.

Meyer isn’t necessarily regarded as a future ace. BA and Keith Law of the Athletic (who slotted him fifth in the Miami system heading into the year) each noted that some evaluators point to his lack of pinpoint fastball command as a reason to project a potential bullpen future. That said, all four outlets suggested Meyer has the potential to be an above-average, mid-rotation or better arm if his command comes along. The Marlins will surely give him every opportunity to cement himself in the starting five over the coming seasons.

This year, the 23-year-old has continued to overpower upper minors hitters. He’s made 12 starts with the Jumbo Shrimp, tossing 58 innings of 3.72 ERA ball. He has a 28.4% strikeout percentage with a 50% grounder rate, and he’s cut his walk rate slightly from 9.6% in Double-A to 8.3% this season. Meyer spent a month on the injured list between mid-May and June, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts since returning.

It remains to be seen whether Meyer will hold a rotation spot for good now that he’s headed to the big leagues, but there should be an opportunity if the club feels he’s ready for consistent run against MLB hitters. Miami’s top three is set in stone. Sandy Alcantara is performing at a Cy Young level, and Pablo López is having another excellent year. Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing first half, but he’s certainly not in danger of losing a rotation spot after an All-Star 2021 campaign.

The final two spots have been more questionable, in part due to injury. Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo opened the year fourth and fifth on the depth chart. Hernández had a dreadful first few months and was eventually optioned to Jacksonville. He’s since been recalled but has worked in long relief. Luzardo, meanwhile, hit the injured list in May with a forearm strain and has yet to return to the big leagues. Sixto Sánchez hasn’t pitched all season, while Cody Poteet and Edward Cabrera have been on the IL for a while.

Former first-rounder Braxton Garrett has pitched well through seven starts since replacing Hernández in the rotation last month. Daniel Castano has stepped into the #5 role and held his own, working to a 4.35 ERA over six starts. He’s only striking out around 13% of hitters, though, so Meyer will certainly be a more high-octane option. Castano still has an option year remaining, and he can head back to Jacksonville or work out of the major league bullpen as needed.

The upcoming series is critical for the Marlins, who sit at 43-45. They’re three games back in the Wild Card standings. The Phils are one of two teams between them and the Cardinals, who currently hold the final playoff spot in the National League. The next two and a half weeks could shape how general manager Kim Ng and her staff approach the upcoming trade deadline, and they’ll turn to one of the sport’s most interesting young arms at this pivotal stage of the season.

Meyer is not on the 40-man roster, so the Marlins will have to formally select his contract on Saturday. Miami’s 40-man roster is full, but they can clear a roster spot by transferring one of their injured pitchers from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list. Reliever Anthony Bender has already missed almost two months and just began a rehab assignment today, so transferring him would be little more than a formality.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Notes: Poteet, Meyer, Sanchez

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The Marlins’ rotation took a hit over the weekend when left-hander Jesús Luzardo landed on the injured list due to a forearm strain. That leaves a vacancy alongside the top four of Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Elieser Hernández, and the long-term plans still appear to be up in the air.

The team announced yesterday that long reliever Cody Poteet would step into Luzardo’s spot for tomorrow’s game against the Nationals. General manager Kim Ng didn’t commit to the righty making more than one start, however, noting only that the team “will be flexible after that” (via Daniel Álvarez Montes of El Extrabase). Poteet started seven games for the Fish last season, so he could probably handle a rotation spot with Luzardo out, but that’d thin the bullpen mix.

Of course, Miami’s organizational strength is their controllable pitching, and the Fish have some young arms whom they hope will be rotation stalwarts over the long-term. 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer reached Triple-A Jacksonville at the end of his first full professional season, and he opened this year there as well. The right-hander has overpowered opponents, pitching to a 2.97 ERA with excellent peripherals in seven starts. Meyer has a lofty 29.5% strikeout rate, has only walked 6.8% of batters faced and has induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him.

That’s a continuation of very strong high minors work for Meyer, who was equally dominant in 101 Double-A innings last year. As he’s continued to tear up the minors, there’s been speculation the University of Minnesota product could be on the radar for a big league call. The Luzardo injury won’t be the immediate catalyst for his first MLB promotion; Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweeted this afternoon that Meyer will start for Jacksonville on Tuesday.

Still, Ng’s nebulous statement about being “flexible” with the vacant rotation spot long-term doesn’t figure to quell any speculation among the fanbase about the possibility of Meyer heading to Miami at some point in the relatively near future. Mish and Barry Jackson at the Miami Herald wrote earlier this month there’d been some “internal discussion” about whether to promote Meyer for relief work before Luzardo’s injury. Meanwhile, Hernández’s continued struggles with home runs may eventually put him in jeopardy of losing his hold on a rotation spot.

Another of Miami’s exciting young arms, Sixto Sánchez, reached the big leagues for the first time in 2020. The fireballing righty made seven strong starts as a 22-year-old, but he missed all of last season battling shoulder concerns. Sánchez landed back on the injured list to start this year, but the team informed reporters he’s progressed to throwing from 90 feet (via Jordan McPherson of the Herald). There’s obviously still a long way to go in his rehab process, but that he’s throwing is a promising development. Sánchez spent the first few weeks of the season in a shutdown period after he battled continued soreness during the spring.

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