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Mets Interested In Rick Porcello

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With Zack Wheeler officially jumping ship to join a division rival, the Mets are exploring options on the starting pitching market, speaking with free agent right-hander Rick Porcello and his representatives, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR tabbed Porcello to receive a one-year deal worth $11MM. Coming off an awful 2019 season, the 30-year-old doesn’t have all that many factors working in his favor, but the sheer number of teams lacking depth in the starting rotation makes it a likely proposition that Porcello attracts his fair share of interest—especially given his durability; he’s never made fewer than 27 starts in any of his eleven big league seasons.

And while he can hardly be considered a direct substitute for Wheeler’s production, Porcello nonetheless represents an intriguing option with some potential. After a nice 2018 showing, Porcello regressed considerably last year, stumbling to a 5.52 ERA that ranked dead last among qualified starters. But his control and K:BB ratio makes him a viable candidate for a spot in the back end of a Major League rotation.

The question that defines Porcello’s market is how much teams buy into his ability to spin the baseball, which ranks among the best in baseball. Per Statcast, the spin rates Porcello generates on his curveball and fastball rank in the 89th and 74th percentiles, respectively, with his slider also grading out well. Teams who think they can transform that skill into on-field results might look to add Porcello on a relatively low-risk deal.

However, that profile glosses over his troubling inability to prevent home runs. Porcello ranks firmly below average in groundball rate and home run rate, and while that in itself isn’t a dealbreaker (he shares company with names like Jack Flaherty, Gerrit Cole, and Justin Verlander) it often spells bad news for a pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats—Porcello saw his K/9 drop from a career-best 8.9 in 2018 to just 7.4 last year. The aforementioned trio of Cy Young contenders is distinguished from Porcello in that their opponents simply don’t put the ball in play enough to do real damage with the home run. It bears mentioning that New York’s Citi Field certainly offers a more pitcher-friendly environment that could mitigate Porcello’s weakness somewhat.

While the Cy Young Award on his mantle suggests otherwise, Porcello has never really been a bona fide ace. Still, he showed in 2018 that he can be a fine complementary rotation piece, filling out the Boston staff behind Chris Sale and David Price. Just one season removed from that 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP year, Porcello could fill a similar role behind the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. And given the organization’s penchant for honing starters’ sliders, the Mets may aim to boost his slider (and curveball) usage at the cost of his fastball and sinker, which opposing hitters collectively mashed in 2019.

Pirates Hire Don Kelly As Bench Coach

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The Pirates have hired Don Kelly to serve as the bench coach on Derek Shelton’s staff, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Kelly, 39, worked the 2019 season as the Astros’ first base coach, a role he accepted after beginning his post-playing career as an assistant in the Tigers’ player development department.

Kelly, a native of the Pittsburgh area, made his Major League debut with the Pirates but spent the majority of his playing days with the Tigers. Kelly will succeed Tom Prince, whom the Tigers hired to manage in their minor league system.

Many view Kelly, who has made a quick ascent up the coaching ranks, to be a future manager, but he’ll have to cut his teeth in the Pittsburgh dugout for the time being. Joining first-time manager Derek Shelton in the dugout, there’s not a lot of experience between the two. However, with the franchise in a transformative state, Shelton and Kelly should have opportunities to grow alongside the players.

Kelly’s hire continues the Pirates’ organizational overhaul under new general manager Ben Cherington, who has been able to hand-pick some of his staff given the coaching turnover. The upper ranks of the Pittsburgh organization will have a drastically different look this offseason and beyond, as Cherington and Shelton will be joined by new team president Travis Williams and assistant GM Steve Sanders.

In one last note on the Pittsburgh coaching staff, Kelly will join coaches Joey Cora, Rick Eckstein, and Justin Meccage, all of whom have been retained, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. Cora and Eckstein will remain in their current posts as third base coach and hitting coach, respectively, while Meccage will shift to a yet-undetermined role after previously serving as an assistant pitching coach. With former pitching coach Ray Searage out, the team has yet to identify a replacement.

Chris Sale Cleared To Begin Throwing

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Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.

The Red Sox had originally expected to have their star lefty re-evaluated six weeks after the fact, but their early departure from the playoff picture allowed them to play it slow when it became apparent that Sale wouldn’t be needed in October. So the prolonged timeline is not reflective of Sale’s progress; assistant GM Brian O’Halloran said that “the rehab has gone very well and Chris is exactly where we want him to be.”

Sale missed all of September and much of August after encountering problems with his throwing elbow, landing on the injured list after experiencing inflammation in the wake of an August 13 start.

Even when he was healthy, Sale wasn’t himself, finishing the season with a 4.40 ERA, the worst mark of his career. His peripheral numbers were more in line with his career norms, but that did little to mitigate concerns about diminished fastball velocity. Luckily, it seems that Sale’s early-season dip in velocity was unconnected to the elbow injury, which is believed to have surfaced in August.

Still, any unanswered questions will be magnified by Sale’s hefty price tag, with a five-year contract extension worth $145MM taking effect in 2020, when Sale will earn $30MM. He’ll earn similar salaries through his age-35 season. From a financial perspective, Sale’s injury concerns could hardly have come at a worse time, but it seems there’s hope that Sale’s 2019 injuries won’t linger into the offseason and beyond. He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Wilmer Difo

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The Nationals have signed infielder Wilmer Difo to a one-year, $1MM contract, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Difo had been projected to earn $1.2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Difo, who was seen by some as a non-tender candidate, is evidently still viewed by the Nationals as a utility option off the bench. However, his signing doesn’t necessarily guarantee him a roster spot with the 2020 Nationals. To some degree, he represents insurance against the potential losses of Brian Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Howie Kendrick, all of whom are free-agent infielders who would slot in above Difo on the depth chart.

Notably, Difo is out of options, meaning that he’ll need to clear waivers before he can be demoted to the minor leagues.

Last year, Difo played in 43 games for the Nats, posting a .252/.315/.313 batting line. He’s hardly threatening with the bat, but he’s valued for his ability to capably play multiple positions. Although he was only used in the infield last year, he’s played all over the diamond throughout his career—everywhere but first base, pitcher, and catcher.

Braves Sign Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves have signed free-agent catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year contract worth $16MM dollars, according to an official team announcement. The deal will pay him $8MM in both 2020 and 2021.

Travis d'Arnaud | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves continue their busy winter, adding a position player to the healthy crop of relievers they have already inked. Between guarantees handed out to Will Smith, Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, and now d’Arnaud, the Braves are wasting no time adding upgrades to a team that came up a game short of the NLCS in 2019. In d’Arnaud, GM Alex Anthopoulos adds MLBTR’s 26th-ranked free agent on guarantee that slightly exceeds our prediction.

The contract puts a bow on what’s turned out to be a nice year and a surprising turnaround for d’Arnaud, who found himself jobless after the Mets designated him for assignment in May. After a pit stop with the Dodgers, he was dealt to the Rays and proceeded to post a .263/.323/.459 batting line for his new club, representing an integral part of the team’s playoff run. His 16 home runs matched a career-best mark, with d’Arnaud doing much of his damage against left-handers, against whom he notched a 130 wRC+.

Equally notable was d’Arnaud’s ability to stay healthy in Tampa, an issue that plagued his stint with the Mets. After he was acquired as a promising catching prospect in 2012, d’Arnaud appeared in more than 75 games in just two of six seasons with the Mets, including a 2018 season in which he missed all but four games thanks to Tommy John surgery.

As a defensive catcher, d’Arnaud is regarded as an above-average framer, though he saw his numbers in that department dip in 2019 compared to his Mets days. Baseball Savant measures his average pop time in the 55th percentile, which allowed him to throw out 29 percent of would-be base stealers in 2019, a notch above his career mark of 22 percent.

In Atlanta, d’Arnaud will join incumbent Tyler Flowers to make up a solid catching tandem that will earn a combined $12MM this year. With Braves icon Brian McCann retiring and Francisco Cervelli hitting free agency, the team found itself in need of a second option heading into the winter. We’ll see just how Brian Snitker and the Braves’ decision-makers allocate playing time between Flowers and d’Arnaud, but the bet here is that d’Arnaud settles into the primary starting role with Flowers getting into the lineup a couple times every week. Flowers’s framing prowess likely gives him the edge over d’Arnaud defensively, but his offensive track record is spotty.

With top free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal signing with the White Sox on Thursday and d’Arnaud now off the board, teams who entered the offseason in need of catching help have seen their options thin out considerably in the blink of an eye. It wasn’t an especially deep class of free agents to begin with, and d’Arnaud was widely considered the second-best catcher on the market. The top remaining options include Robinson Chirinos, Yan Gomes, and Martin Maldonado.

Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen

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The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.

One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.

That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.

And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.

The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.

As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/19

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor moves…

  • The Brewers signed right-hander Jesus Castillo to a minor-league deal that includes and invite to Major League camp, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The 24-year-old Venezuelan signed with the Diamondbacks as an international amateur in 2012 and has since spent time in the minors with the Cubs and Angels organizations. Last year, Castillo reached the Double-A level and enjoyed arguably his best season as a professional, splitting time between the bullpen and the starting rotation. in 99 2/3 innings of work with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate in Mobile, Castillo posted a 2.71 ERA while striking out 80 batters. While his strikeout and walk numbers are nothing special, Castillo has done well throughout his minor league career to suppress the long ball: in eight seasons across several levels of the minors, he’s conceded just 0.6 homers per nine innings pitched.
  • The Giants signed former Cubs farmhand Trey McNutt, tweets Matt Daniels, the Giants’ Coordinator of Pitching Sciences. McNutt, 30, signed with the Cubs in 2009 after being drafted in the 32nd round out of Shelton State Community College. He spent some time in the Padres system before two years in the Independent League (2017, 2018). He posted good strikeout rates while throwing 65 innings of 5.12 ERA baseball for the A’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2019. Daniels tracked McNutt at least through his independent league days, and the Giants’ pitching coordinator seems to believe in the righty’s ability to continue to improve, despite being quite a few years older than most farmhands. Still, after the success of Nick Anderson in Miami and Tampa Bay (whose career tracked a similar path), McNutt’s chances of making his major league debut are far from dead, and a year from now, he could very well be the Merrill Kelly to Anderson’s Miles Mikolas.

Cubs Acquire Jharel Cotton From Athletics

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The Athletics have traded right-handed pitcher Jharel Cotton to the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations, according to an official announcement from the A’s (Twitter link). Cotton was designated for assignment on Wednesday. Acquiring Cotton leaves three open spots on the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

Cotton hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2017, thanks to a 2018 elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. He returned to pitch in the minor leagues late this year, but struggled in 14 Triple-A games and didn’t make it back to the big leagues.

For the Cubs, Cotton represents a buy-low reclamation project who could pay off if he can make good on the upside that made him a promising prospect several years ago. A key part of the Athletics’ 2016 trade with the Dodgers involving Josh Reddick and Rich Hill, Cotton was viewed as a potential rotation cog thanks to an impressive minor league track record.

After a solid rookie showing with the Athletics in 2016, making five starts, Cotton was installed in the Opening Day starting rotation for 2017 and ultimately failed to match the numbers he posted the year before. He stumbled to a 5.58 ERA in 24 starts

It’ll be interesting to see if Cotton, now 27 years old and approaching two years removed from elbow surgery, will be given the chance to compete for a spot in the Cubs’ rotation, with Cole Hamels likely to depart in free agency. He’ll need to overtake Tyler Chatwood, Adbert Alzolay, and Alec Mills, all of whom were part-time starters last year. If not, Cotton could be deployed out of the bullpen as a multi-inning option; he made 15 appearances in relief in the minors last year. At the very least, he represents pitching depth for an organization that is otherwise lacking in that department.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Ozuna, Pirates, Hamels

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The Yankees have made a notable addition to their player development staff, hiring Rachel Balkovec to serve as a minor league hitting coach, reports Lindsay Berra of The New York Times. Balkovec, 32, played college softball with both Creighton and New Mexico and went on to earn two master’s degrees in kinesiology and the science of human movement. She broke into the industry as the Cardinals’ minor league strength and conditioning coordinator and landed a job with the Astros in Latin America after teaching herself Spanish. With Houston, she would meet Dillon Lawson, who now works as the Yankees’ hitting coordinator and recommended Balkovec for the job. She has also worked with Driveline Baseball, conducting research on hitters’ eye tracking and pitchers’ hip movement, which she hopes to apply in her work with the Yankees. As Berra writes, Balkovec is believed to be the first woman employed as a full-time hitting coach at any level of professional baseball. She’ll begin her work in earnest when spring training rolls around in February.

  • Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna could be in line for a five-year deal, according to J.P. Morosi of MLB Network (video via Twitter). Interestingly, Morosi also names a market of five teams that have expressed preliminary interest in the 29-year-old slugger—which includes a few teams that haven’t been mentioned as obvious suitors for Ozuna. It’ll come as no surprise that the Cardinals remain connected to Ozuna, but Morosi also lists the Rangers, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Braves as teams that could pursue him. Five years still feels a bit optimistic for a player who has yet to show that the career-best numbers he put up in 2017 are repeatable; MLBTR tabbed Ozuna for a three-year deal at the outset of the offseason. However, it’s hadly surprising that Ozuna is drawing his fair share of interest, given his age and raw skills.
  • The Pirates are no longer considering Joey Cora for their unfilled manager post, Tweets Enrique Rojas of ESPN. That leaves Twins bench coach Derek Shelton and the Rays’ Matt Quatraro atop GM Ben Cherington’s wish list. Cora has worked as a coach within the Bucs organization for the last several years, first as the Double-A skipper and later as a base coach for the big league team. His ascent up the coaching ladder will be temporarily put on hold, with the Pirates apparently turning their focus to external candidates. The Pirates’ is the last remaining managerial vacancy, so it looks like they won’t have to compete with other clubs for Quatraro or Shelton—assuming they are willing to leave their current employers.
  • Turning our attention to free agent pitchers, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark is hearing from Cole Hamels’s agent that the 35-year-old southpaw is a hot commodity, having drawn inquiries from as many as 14 teams. We’ll see just how much of this rumbling is a representative trying to drive up the price for his client, but it’s not hard to see why Hamels has a robust market. There’s no shortage of clubs vying for help in the starting rotation, and Hamels provides exactly that while coming at a considerably lower cost than consensus top options like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler: Hamels doesn’t come saddled with a qualifying offer, and, at age 35, won’t rival the market’s juggernauts in contract length or yearly value. For pitching-needy teams that have balked at the asking prices for Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler, Hamels represents a short-term, reasonably-priced alternative who’s shown he can still hang.

Yomiuri Giants Post Shun Yamaguchi

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Nov. 18: The Giants announced today that Yamaguchi has indeed been posted (link via the Japan Times). Major League teams will now have 30 days to negotiate with the right-hander.

“I will take a shot at my dream of playing in the majors,” Yamaguchi said at a press conference. “I’d like to express my appreciation to Yomiuri Giants officials, manager Mr. (Tatsunori) Hara, my coaches, teammates and fans for the past three years. I will work even harder as I pursue a new challenge.”

Nov. 17: Right-hander Shun Yamaguchi has asked his team, the Yomiuri Giants, that he be posted and allowed to negotiate with MLB teams, according to reports from Sankei Sports (hat tip to reporter Jim Allen).  Notably, the Giants have never posted a player in franchise history, meaning that it would be a considerable step for Yamaguchi to make it stateside.

The 32-year-old Yamaguchi has 14 years of experience in Nippon Professional Baseball, as he broke in with the Yokohama BayStars when he was just 18 years old.  After making 11 starts in his first two pro seasons, Yamaguchi was moved to the bullpen, and he posted impressive numbers as Yokohama’s closer from 2009-2012.  He began to transition back to starting pitching in 2014, and has worked almost exclusively out of the rotation ever since, culminating in a 2019 season that saw him lead NPB in both strikeouts (188) and wins (15) while pitching 170 innings.

As noted by Allen in a scouting report of Yamaguchi, the righty averages roughly 90.1mph on his fastball, though his top pitch is a splitter.  Yamaguchi also has an off-the-field black mark on his resume, as he reportedly shoved a security guard and injured his pitching hand during a drunken incident in July 2017, though Allen notes that this seems to have been an isolated case of bad behavior.

“MLB scouts I’ve spoken to see him as either a back-of-the-rotation starter or a bullpen guy, largely because he has not established his current level of success,” Allen writes.  It remains to be seen what type of interest Yamaguchi would draw in this offseason’s free agent market, though it could end up being a moot point if Yomiuri refuses to post him or release him from his contract.

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