Vladimir Guerrero Announces Retirement
All-time great slugger Vladimir Guerrero has decided to officially retire from the game, Hector Gomez of Dominican outlet Listin Diario recently reported (Spanish-language link). "I decided to announce my retirement due to my desire to spend more time with my family," said Guerrero (in Spanish), "as well as because of the two operations that I've had on my right knee."
Though we had heard recently that Guerrero would play independent league ball with the hope of returning to the bigs at age 38 and making a run at 500 career home runs, it appears he will settle for the 449 long balls he's already bagged. On the milestone, Guerrero said: "Lamentably, I couldn't do it. That was one of my principal goals." He last appeared in the majors with the Orioles in 2011. Then 36, Guerrero hit .290/.317/.416 in 590 plate appearances for the O's in what was his worst season as a regular.
Of course, Guerrero's career is not diminished because he fell short of his home run goal. His career triple-slash line stands at a remarkable .318/.379/.553 over 9,059 plate appearances. He swatted over 25 home runs twelve times, and hit over 30 in eight seasons. And he consistently hit for average as well, posting a batting average over .300 in thirteen of his fifteen full-time campaigns. Guerrero struck fear in baserunners and third-base coaches alike, ranging right field with a powerful right arm and recording double-digit assists for eight straight years in his prime. It is easy to forget, too, that a more youthful Guerrero notched 37 and 40 stolen bases in the 2001-2002 seasons, even if he was not terribly efficient in doing so. He was voted the American League MVP in 2004 — it was probably not even his best season — and finished amongst the top five three other times.
The long-time Expo and Angel great still stands atop the Montreal/Washington franchise's career list in total home runs. He also holds that franchise's record for OPS with a seemingly insurmountable .978 mark. What is most unforgettable, of course, was Vlad's uncanny ability to hit even the worst pitches for incredible power.
Giants Discussing Extension With Pence; No Talks Yet With Lincecum
The Giants are in discussions with outfielder Hunter Pence regarding a contract extension, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. This indicates that the team has real intentions of inking the Beverly Hills Sports Council client before he hits free agency, says Schulman, though he adds (via Twitter) that talks have been "minimal" to date. Meanwhile, the club has yet to begin talks with fellow free agent-to-be and BHSC client Tim Lincecum, Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com reports.
Both Pence and Lincecum were mentioned as trade deadline targets, though the team apparently decided it would be better served by making qualifying offers to the pair of pending free agents. (This year, the qualifying offer is expected to clock in at around $14MM.) At the time, ESPN's Jayson Stark also reported that the Giants were telling other teams that they intended to extend Pence.
Pence figures to earn a raise, over multiple years, on the $13.8MM he received this year, his final season of arbitration eligibility. In a market that features few high-end power bats, the 30-year-old's career .475 slugging percentage and six-year streak of twenty-plus long balls figures to play up. The durable, righty-swinging Pence has a .289/.340/.477 line in 624 plate appearances in 2013, and has also contributed a career-best 21 steals. As Schulman notes, Pence has said he does not intend to give the Giants a hometown discount, though he has expressed interest in sticking around. Of course, San Francisco can exercise additional leverage before the qualifying offer deadline by threatening to make Pence a QO, which would attach draft-pick compensation and lower his market value.
Unlike the short-time Giant Pence, Lincecum has long been a fixture at AT&T Park. Also unlike Pence, Lincecum told Baggarly that his agent recently told him there was nothing new to report on the contract front. The twice former Cy Young winner has been better than he was in 2012, but has yet to restore his former glory (or fastball velocity). If you believe in xFIP, though, things may look different, as Lincecum's 3.53 mark is substantially better than his 4.40 ERA over his 178 innings to date in 2013. He currently ranks sixth among baseball's top 34 free agent starters, per MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
NL Notes: Arrieta, Mets, Strasburg
Let's take a quick look at some notes from the National League …
- Recent Cubs trade acquisition Jake Arrieta is struggling with consistency even while flashing the potential to be a dominant starter, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Of course, as MLBTR's Zach Links noted back when he was shipped to Chicago, Arrieta was a nice buy-low, change-of-scenery candidate precisely because of his historical inability to harness his stuff.
- Looking forward to the club's right field opening in 2014, the Mets probably lack the top-end young bat that would be necessary to draw Giancarlo Stanton away from the Marlins, writes ESPNNewYork.com's Mark Simon. (Simon notes that catcher Travis d'Arnaud could fit the bill, but his struggles at the MLB level lower his value and he fills an obvious need for his current club.) Looking elsewhere, Simon tabs Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, and recent Met Marlon Byrd as potential targets.
- Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had his start skipped today after experiencing soreness in his right forearm, reports Tom Schad of MLB.com. Though manager Davey Johnson said that a medical examination revealed nothing of concern, the team is understandably proceeding with caution, even as it tries to hang on to the fringes of the Wild Card race. At this point, Strasburg has set himself up for a nice arbitration payday regardless of what happens over his remaining starts. He will enter the process for the first time with a career 2.95 ERA over 421 1/3 innings pitched, with 10.6 K/9 against just 2.5 BB/9, although his relatively low inning totals (he is at a career-high 170) and lack of wins this year (he has just seven) could limit his earning potential somewhat.
Quick Hits: GMs, Comp Picks, 2013 Free Agents
On this day in 2007, Terry Ryan announced that he would step aside from his post as the Twins general manager at the end of the season. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted, Ryan's history was checkered at best at the time. Of course, as a read through this site's most recent post would indicate, Ryan is now back at the helm. Though the team has yet to post more than seventy wins in a season since Ryan returned in November of 2011, Minnesota stands at 15th in ESPN's latest future power rankings on the strength of its minor league system. While Ryan has long been said to have his job as long as he wants to keep it, some other GMs may not be so lucky …
- There are four general managers around the league who could soon be replaced, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. According to Gammons, two of those — Jerry Dipoto of the Angels and Larry Beinfest of the Marlins – have arguably been undone by meddling owners. (Gammons cites Arte Moreno's $365MM investment in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and Jeffrey Loria's propensity for "whimsically run[ning] everything.") Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik may not survive to see whether the team's top young pitching talent can drive a winner. And Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd — the game's fourth-longest tenured GM — has yet to figure out how to craft a squad that can win away from Coors field. (For what it's worth, O'Dowd was in charge for the franchise's lone season with a winning road record, when it posted a 41-40 mark in 2009.)
- It would be ridiculous to consider Rangers GM Jon Daniels among those at risk, writes Baseball Nation's Grant Brisbee. While he surely could have sacrificed future value to win at all costs this season, says Brisbee, Daniels was prudent not to and still delivered a team that should qualify for the post-season.
- Teams must determine whether to make outgoing free agents a qualifying offer just five days after the conclusion of this year's World Series, and those decisions will play a major role in setting the stage for the 2014 free agent market. For non-obvious candidates, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, an important part of the equation lies in valuing the compensation pick that the team would receive if the player declines the offer and then signs with another club. Working off of a rough valuation of international signing slot dollars, Cameron opines that teams could value the dollars spent on a comp pick as much as three-to-four times higher than money the team could spend outside the draft. As he explains, this would imply that there is substantial excess value in obtaining non-marketable draft picks, which could move the needle in favor of making qualifying offers in marginal situations.
- As we prepare to weigh a new class of free agents, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman ranks the best signings of 2013. His top three are a collection of veterans whose contributions have vastly outweighed the relatively meager financial commitments that they received: Pirates starter Francisco Liriano, Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, and Athletics starter Bartolo Colon. Next on his list is Boston's David Ortiz, who as Heyman notes was the only player to accept a qualifying offer in the first year of the system.
Jhonny Peralta Leaves ACES For SFX
Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta has become the latest player to leave Sam and Seth Levinson's ACES agency, reports MLB.com's Jason Beck. As he approaches free agency, Peralta will be represented by Diego Bentz of SFX.
Since being investigated by Major League Baseball in relation to the PED suspension of Melky Cabrera, ACES has seen several high-profile clients leave for other representation. It lost Nelson Cruz just before the Rangers outfielder — like Peralta — took a fifty-game suspension relating to the Biogenesis scandal. Other players, including Shane Victorino and Everth Cabrera (another Biogenesis suspension target), walked over the off-season.
Peralta, 31, had been enjoying one of the best years of his career before his suspension, posting a .305/.361/.461 slash line in 436 plate appearances and making his second All-Star game. The Tigers are reportedly still debating whether to bring Peralta back as a reserve in the post-season, but have no plans to bench recent acquisition Jose Iglesias if they do. (As Beck noted earlier today, Peralta could even see time in left field.)
In either event, Detroit seems set to move on with Iglesias as the everyday shortstop next season, making it likely that Peralta will find a new employer after the season. His new agency, SFX, also represents Tigers star Miguel Cabrera, Diamondbacks first bagger Paul Goldschmidt, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, and a long list of other ballplayers. It will be tasked with convincing clubs that the suspension was a one-time mistake and focusing on Peralta's strong campaign prior to his time off. While Peralta's value has unquestionably taken a hit, some organization will surely see a lot of potential upside in a low-risk deal for the veteran.
Ellsbury To Receive Second Opinion On Injured Foot
SUNDAY: Manager John Farrell told reporters, including the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, Ellsbury has a compression fracture and will return before the end of the season (Twitter link). Ellsbury will head back to Boston and wear a walking boot for five days, tweets Tim Britton of the Providence Journal.
SATURDAY: Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is in a walking boot after an MRI revealed inflammation around the navicular bone of his foot, tweets Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, and will get a second opinion on the injury. Ellsbury's doctors are set to determine whether he suffered a deep bone bruise or a fracture, tweets the Boston Globe's Gordon Edes. Somewhat more positively, GM Ben Cherington says that his "understanding is there's not a long-term concern here," making the key question "how do we manage it over the next several weeks," Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports on Twitter.
While the precise nature of the injury remains unknown, it seems clear that Ellsbury will miss at least some time. Manager John Farrell said the injury is "more than day to day," according to another Lauber tweet, and the team will want to make sure he is able to contribute in the post-season even if he gets a favorable diagnosis. If Ellsbury has indeed suffered a fracture, there would seem to be a good chance that his season would be over. A fracture of the navicular bone sidelined teammate Dustin Pedroia for about two months in 2010, and he re-injured the foot upon returning.
Whatever happens with the injury, Ellsbury has re-established himself — albeit not his former power — after a poor, injury-plagued 2012 season. Over 624 plate appearances this year, he has a .299/.355/.424 line and leads the league with 52 swipes. Of course, the 29-year-old's value would figure to be in line for a substantial downgrade if he is unable to return and prove his health. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk recently looked at the question whether the Sox would spend over $100MM for Ellsbury, but it is certainly fair to doubt whether that level is attainable if he ends the season injured. Even if he can return in 2013, the center fielder's history was already a potential source of concern for clubs pondering a major, long-term investment, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted in placing Ellsbury second in the 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
Edward Creech contributed to this post.
Poll: How To Handle The Braves’ Young Players
Last night, I discussed the Braves overflowing cupboard of players that seem to fit the mold of early extension candidates, looking at whether GM Frank Wren would join the league-wide trend of locking up young talent. In a nutshell, the team seems to have at least eleven players that arguably could warrant extension consideration in the immediate future: Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, Julio Teheran, and Justin Upton. (I mention Upton last because, though he is just 26, he has already signed one extension and thus is not looking for his first big payday. All of the other players still have at least two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.) Inspired by the MLBTR commenters that endeavored to sort through this group, I thought it would be interesting to ask our readers to weigh in on the situation in its full context.
As noted in my earlier piece, Atlanta does have room in its future payroll to fit some extensions. Then again, it also has over $40MM committed to just three players over the next two years, and boasts an annual payroll that has tended to land right around $90MM at opening day. The list of players we've compiled is good enough that you could probably just add average players around it and still have a winner. Without demeaning the immense contributions this year of part-timers like Jordan Schafer and Evan Gattis, to say nothing of Brian McCann and a solid all-around pitching staff, that is very nearly what the Braves have done. But if the full core cannot be maintained for the long-term, with big arbitration raises ramping up beginning next year, then how should the team prioritize amongst its youngsters?
To keep things simple, we'll allow for three options on each of the youngsters noted above: First, go year to year for the time being, potentially risking losing the player through free agency and paying full boat (arbitration-wise, anyway) for their services. Second, explore a long-term extension that delivers cost-certainty and perhaps cost savings, while adding risk and reducing payroll flexibility. (Of course, the length and value will vary widely by player, but we will have to save that discussion for another day.) Third, shop the player on the open market, looking to return even younger, cheaper, close-to-the-bigs talent.
It is important, of course, to consider the internal options that the team's always-productive minor league system has in the pipeline. The Braves' top prospects include a bevy of young pitchers, some of whom — in particular, J.R. Graham, Sean Gilmartin, and Cody Martin — could soon be ready to contribute at the MLB level along with rookie Alex Wood. There are a few top position players in the upper minors as well, led by catcher Christian Bethancourt, outfielder Todd Cunningham, third baseman Edward Salcedo, and second baseman Tommy La Stella.
Here is a breakdown of the contract situations of the eleven players we will consider:
Second-Year Arb-Eligible (2013 salary; notes)
- Outfielder Jason Heyward ($3.65MM)
- Starter Kris Medlen ($2.6MM)
- Reliever Jonny Venters ($1.62MM; missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery)
- Third baseman Chris Johnson ($2.88MM; qualified for arbitration as Super Two)
First-Year Arb-Eligible (notes)
- Closer Craig Kimbrel
- First baseman Freddie Freeman
- Starter Brandon Beachy
- Starter Mike Minor (will have 2.138 years of service and likely be arb-eligible as Super Two)
Pre-Arb-Eligible (notes)
- Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (will have 1.125 years of service)
- Starter Julio Teheran (will have 1.062 years of service)
Under Contract Through 2015 (salary)
- Outfielder Justin Upton (owed $14.25MM in 2014 and $14.5MM in 2015)
Click here to view the results as they come in.
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Quick Hits: Petit, Pelfrey, Astros, Call-Ups
As you've no doubt heard by now, Giants pitcher Yusmeiro Petit — yes, that Yusmeiro Petit — came within inches of recording 27-straight outs last night. As a youngster, Petit was twice a top-100 prospect as he moved quickly through the Mets system. When he became the headline piece of the deal shipping star first baseman Carlos Delgado to the Mets late in 2005, Marlins GM Larry Beinfest said that Petit would join the Marlins' "stable of outstanding young pitchers." Instead, the Fish quickly lost interest and shipped him to the Diamondbacks in a misguided bid to acquire a proven closer, Jorge Julio. After flaming out in Arizona, Petit's transactional history on MLBTR has provided a crash course on minor roster moves. While we can all celebrate this journeyman hurler's brush with history, does it mean anything for the 28-year-old's future as a ballplayer?
- According to Giants manager Bruce Bochy, Petit "sent a tremendous message that this is where he belongs and this is where he should be pitching," tweets Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com. Petit has indeed performed in limited action this year for San Francisco, with a 2.05 ERA over 26 1/3 innings in which he has notched thirty strikeouts against just four walks. Though he hasn't suppressed runs quite as well in Triple-A, he does sport a nifty 7.62 K:BB rate in 92 2/3 innings there.
- It will be interesting to see how the Giants proceed with Petit. As Baggarly notes in another tweet, Petit will reach arbitration eligibility for the first time this offseason. While the Giants can therefore control him for three seasons, it remains to be seen whether the team will be interested in tendering him a contract to do so.
- There is some interesting precedent here. Another highly regarded young pitcher-turned-disappointment, Philip Humber, tossed a perfect game in 2012 but went on to post a 6.44 ERA in 102 innings on the year. When the White Sox released the first-time arb-eligible Humber, the Astros snapped him up and guaranteed him $1.3MM (including the buyout of a 2014 option) just before the tender deadline. Of course, unlike Petit, Humber had put up one full season of solid performance at the big league level, as he notched 163 innings of 3.75 ERA ball in 2011.
- Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey, set to become a free agent, hopes to stay in Minnesota, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com, but agent Scott Boras will ask for more than $4.5MM per year to make that a reality. (Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Pelfrey signed with the Twins for one-year and $4MM.) This season, Pelfrey's first in a uniform other than the Mets', has seen him struggle to a 4.97 ERA in 26 starts. Pelfrey's ground-ball rate has dropped to a career-low 43.8%, and he continues to strike out less than six batters per nine while posting a below-average K:BB ratio (1.83 this season; 1.62 for his career). Nevertheless, Wolfson opines in another tweet that some club will give the 29-year-old that kind of money, though he believes the Twins would be best served to pass on another year of Pelfrey.
- The Astros are still working on finalizing the rest of the club's September call-ups, tweets Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. As he notes in another tweet, fans pining for top prospects to taste the big leagues should bear in mind that players must be on the 40-man roster to be on the active MLB roster, and adding a player necessarily carries repercussions for managing the 40-man going forward.
- General managers around baseball seem to be coalescing around the idea that a rule change should be made that limits the September roster expansion, writes USA Today's Bob Nightengale. Among the GMs and managers that Nightengale cites, only Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers prefers to reward teams that have deep farms with a larger active roster, though he says an even better solution is to "expand in April" so teams "won't wear out [their] bullpen early, and guys won't get injured so easily coming out of spring training." Most importantly, several members of the league's committee for on-field matters — including Tony LaRussa and Mike Scioscia — seem to believe that a change is warranted to avoid the sudden and massive shift in the game's rules during its most strategically challenging month.
Will The Braves Seek To Extend Their Young Core?
It's no secret that Atlanta plays home to one of the best collections of young, established big leaguers in the game. The Braves have steamrolled back to the top of the NL East this season, led by that youthful core. Even as the team focuses on the coming post-season, it is worth considering whether, and when, Atlanta will follow the baseball-wide trend of locking up talent through early extensions over the coming offseason.
The list of reasonable possibilities is extensive, and impressive: first baseman Freddie Freeman; Andrelton Simmons at short; outfielder Jason Heyward; maybe even third-bagger Chris Johnson. Then, there are the pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, and Julio Teheran could all make sense, either now or in the foreseeable future. These players — eight of the team's top nine in terms of fWAR (excepting the injured Beachy and Venters) — have all yet to reach their second year of arbitration.
With this many candidates, it is difficult to analyze each player on his own merit. (MLBTR has recently looked at the cases for Heyward and Medlen, though the situations of both players have changed somewhat over the season.) As a whole, though, it seems that the Braves have an even greater opportunity — albeit, a more complicated one — than those availed of recently by so many other teams. As MLBTR's Zach Links has explained, the increasing utilization of early-career extensions has created fears that the free agent market will be depressed. Such extensions, Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus wrote, have become "the mainstream strategy."
To date, however, the Braves have not locked up any of their young stars. After passing on Michael Bourn, Atlanta is poised to do the same with 29-year-old catcher Brian McCann and 28-year-old reliever Eric O'Flaherty, both of whom reach free agency after distinguishing themselves with the Braves. (MLBTR's Mark Polishuk profiled the extension case for O'Flaherty in March of last year, a year before he was lost to Tommy John surgery; Mike Axisa did the same for Bourn in January of 2012.)
It is not just the recent crop: in the nearly six-year reign of GM Frank Wren, Atlanta has not extended a single player who had less than five years of MLB service time at the time of the deal. The last extension of any kind that the team completed was the five-year, $62MM contract given Dan Uggla in January of 2011, which was agreed upon immediately after he was traded for — hardly an example of baseball's recent trend. Over Wren's six years, aside from the Uggla deal, the team has only committed $82.25MM in total to extensions, every penny of which went to grizzled veterans Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones, David Ross, and Rafael Soriano.
Of course, there are good explanations for the team's disinclination to focus on extending its core over the last offseason. The front office had other business: it pulled off a blockbuster deal for Justin Upton, who had already been extended by his former club, and inked B.J. Upton to a five-year contract as a free agent.
With at least two years of control still remaining on Atlanta's admirable array of youngsters, there is plenty of time to act. And the team has flexibility: at present, its total future commitments are just $42.4MM for 2014, $42MM for 2015, $15.45MM for 2016, and $16.45MM for 2017. Of course, virtually all of those obligations are tied up in three players, Uggla and the Upton brothers, and the team's opening day payroll has hovered in the $90MM range of late. It may become necessary for the Braves to begin exploring trade opportunities to help manage the coming burst in salary obligations.
Focusing on the possibility of extensions, Wren could look to bag the players with less service time while a bargain is still possible, or could focus on extending control over those that are closer to reaching the open market. (This latter group could include the younger Upton, whose deal expires after 2015.) Or, he could continue to let his players earn their salaries year to year, at least for another season. Whether the Braves aim to work out long-term deals as the cost begins to rise through the arbitration process — and, if so, how they prioritize negotiations amongst so many viable candidates — will be fascinating to watch over the coming winter and spring.
Quick Hits: Rodriguez, Middlebrooks, Mariners, Haren
To round out the evening, here are a few links …
- The Red Sox had an opportunity to acquire reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers, reports CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler, but were unwilling to give up young third baseman Will Middlebrooks to do so. Leaving Rodriguez go to the division-rival Orioles, GM Ben Cherington determined that Middlebrooks could still contribute to the team this season. Of course, he has done just that, posting an excellent .972 OPS since being recalled on August 10th.
- Mariners manager Eric Wedge says that his team has "a lot of guys that have a good chance to be good ballplayers," reports Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, but says he is not sure "we have any superstars." Wedge went on to praise the organization's "volume" of talent. Though intended as a compliment, says Baker, these comments make clear that the team needs to jettison its "risk-averse financial approach" and act boldly on the free agent market to produce a real contender.
- Nationals' starter Dan Haren had a second straight disastrous outing today, once more failing to hang in past the third inning. While Haren had a chance to end his rocky season on a consistent high note after a solid run through much of July and August, his free agent value seems unlikely to make a real recovery at this point. It will be interesting to see how the market values once-excellent starters like Haren, Josh Johnson, and Roy Halladay, each of whom have suffered through miserable seasons in their walk years.