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Jerry Dipoto On Mariners’ Struggles, Interest In Retaining Nelson Cruz

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In his most recent appearance on 710 ESPN radio (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed his club’s disappointing fade in the postseason race. What had seemed an inevitable march to a Wild Card has turned into a lost cause as the division-rival A’s sprinted past.

It long seemed that the M’s were outperforming their true talent level, but the collapse has still been surprising (albeit less so than the corresponding Oakland surge). Seattle is still 14 games over .500, but it sat over twenty games over for much of late June and July.

Dipoto admitted that the club is at a “bit of a crossroads” at this point, having seen a hoped-for postseason return fall out of its grasp. “We should be embarrassed by it and I am,” says the veteran executive, who says it feels as if the club has “taken two steps forward and then three steps back” over the course of the season.

It’s interesting to hear Dipoto describe things in that manner, as the organization seems largely to be set up to continue pressing forward after the present season. After all, its 2019 payroll already includes over $125MM in guaranteed money before accounting for arbitration salaries or outside acquisitions. Of course, Dipoto could perhaps be referring more to the team’s approaches to roster building and commitments to specific players than its determination to pursue near-term contention.

Notably, that upcoming salary figure also doesn’t include a salary for veteran slugger Nelson Cruz, who is the team’s top pending free agent. Dipoto highlighted Cruz as one of the season’s highlights in the above-linked chat. And he has made clear in other recent comments that the Mariners have every intention of trying to keep him in the fold, as Corey Brock of The Athletic explores (subscription link).

As Dipoto put it in an interview with Seattle’s KIRO-AM:

“I don’t think you could increase the chances we’d want to, the chances we want to are already very high. Everybody wants Nelson here, there’s no question about that.”

Just how contract talks will proceed isn’t clear, but they won’t be impacted by the qualifying offer process since Cruz isn’t eligible to receive one. The 38-year-old would otherwise seem a reasonable recipient despite his advanced age. After all, he has done nothing but mash since coming to Seattle. Through nearly 2,500 plate appearances over the past four seasons, he carries a ridiculous .286/.365/.553 slash with 162 home runs.

Interestingly, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times noted back in June that the organization has already made a run at “a contract setup similar to David Ortiz’s final years in Boston” — i.e., a hefty single-year guarantee with a series of options, at least some of which had vesting elements. Evidently, that approach (or other details of the offer) didn’t strike Cruz’s fancy, at least not to the extent that he was willing to make a deal before the start of the season.

Now that Cruz will have another productive year in the books, he can certainly seek a multi-year deal if he prefers. As Brock explains, some recent injuries are perhaps more a reflection of misfortune than deterioration, and Cruz is a noted workout fiend. Though he’ll be limited to American League teams, and will face a market that hasn’t favored defensively-limited sluggers, Cruz will surely be a popular target if he makes it to free agency.

Pedro Strop Out For Rest Of Regular Season

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TODAY: With an MRI revealing a moderate hamstring strain, Strop won’t return in the regular season, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat was among those to report on Twitter. His postseason availability remains to be seen.

YESTERDAY: Cubs reliever Pedro Strop pulled up lame after grounding into a double play late in tonight’s contest. He says he expects to miss at least a couple of weeks, as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweets, further depleting the late-inning ranks of the Chicago pen at a critical juncture.

Strop was only up to the plate because the heavily worked relief unit was left without other desirable options. Despite a bases-loaded, one-out opportunity, the Cubs sent the veteran hurler up in anticipation of asking him to throw a second inning to lock up a win.

As it turned out, the club won, but Strop was unable to make it back onto the hill. He and skipper Joe Maddon confirmed after the game that it’s a hamstring issue. Understandably, full details of the injury remain unknown at this time.

In large part, Strop’s recovery timeline will simply depend upon how quickly he responds. Perhaps, though, we can expect further indication as to expectations once he’s examined fully in the coming days.

The news leaves the Cubs without their first and second choices in the closer’s role. Top reliever Brandon Morrow is already on the shelf and facing an uncertain path back to the MLB roster. In his stead, Strop has increasingly operated in the ninth inning. Over twenty appearances since the return from the All-Star break, Strop has recorded 11 saves.

At this point, there’s not much to be done but to hope for the best with regard to both righties. Significant outside acquisitions, after all, aren’t a realistic possibility. (Though trades are still possible, through the revocable waiver process, any players changing hands at this juncture are not eligible to participate in the postseason.)

As with Morrow, the 33-year-old Strop is a key piece even before factoring in any added value in a closing capacity. Through 58 frames this year, Strop owns a 2.33 ERA — his fifth-straight season of sub-3.00 ERA pitching in Chicago. After all, going to the next man up still means reducing the quality of the options in the earlier innings, which could lead to increased demands on what’s already a less-than-dominant rotation.

Even if Strop is able to recover by the start of the postseason, any intervening absence will certainly impact the club’s efforts to hold off the Brewers and Cardinals in the division. That makes for an increased challenge for Maddon and his charges, though it might also lead to an even more interesting race for fans of these three teams.

Yankees Activate Aaron Judge

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The Yankees will activate star outfielder Aaron Judge for tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters including SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter links). Though he is not yet cleared to hit in game action, he’ll be able to play in the field and run the bases some while finishing his final preparations with the bat.

Though Judge isn’t quite fully back, it’s still a notable moment for an organization that hasn’t exactly been charging into the postseason. While the Yanks are all but assured of making it into the playoffs, they haven’t made a push for the AL East and are even in danger of losing the chance to host the Wild Card game.

When Judge hit the DL just before the trade deadline with a wrist fracture, the stated expectation of the club was that Judge would miss only about three weeks. That has proven optimistic, clearly, as Judge has been out for about seven weeks already. Now, he’ll try to help the organization win a few more games down the stretch and — more importantly — try to get up to full game speed before the start of the postseason.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of Judge to the Yanks’ hopes. He carried a .285/.398/.548 slash with 26 home runs in 447 plate appearances at the time of his injury, representing a worthy follow-up to his Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up performance from 2017. While his overall production is down a smidge, Judge was pumping out even more hard contact (47.9%) than he did in the season prior.

The hope, it seems, is that Judge and the team will benefit from the activation even if he’s not yet a full go. A rehab stint would be preferable, of course, but that’s not an option right now. Instead, the expectation seems to be that Judge will participate in a sim game in the near future in hopes of being deemed ready to get back into the lineup.

NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

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As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

  • The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
  • As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
  • It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.

MLBTR Poll: National League Divisional Races

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Has this season flown by for anyone else? It may be hard to believe, but there are just over two weeks left in the regular season. That means it’s crunch time in some cases, with much of the focus landing on two National League divisions.

Were it not for the Nationals’ season-long mediocrity and the Phillies’ recent stumbles, the NL East might still be in play. But with a 7.5 game cushion, only a total calamity will keep the Braves from the crown now.

Things are much tighter in the other two groupings. Six teams are still heavily involved in both the divisional and Wild Card races.

True, the Diamondbacks are at risk of falling all the way out of reasonable contention. And the Cardinals are increasingly in a tough spot in the NL Central, though they are in much better shape in the Wild Card picture. But those teams are still not out of things entirely in the divisions, so we’ll include them in our pair of polls.

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which team do you expect to win the NL West? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

AL West Notes: Felix, Lowrie, Cahill, Skaggs, Calhoun, Listach

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Mariners fans in particular will want to read up on the club’s faded ace, Felix Hernandez, in this piece from Scott Miller of Bleacher Report. The veteran hurler has taken his downfall hard, but he’s still working to rediscover the magic that once made him one of the game’s very best pitchers. Of course, his lost fastball velocity means the odds are long; it’s still in full retreat despite the fact that Hernandez says his “body feels good” after dealing with injuries over the past two seasons. It’s a well-conceived and well-paced story — at once deep and, refreshingly, not unnecessarily lengthy — with some notable observations from current and former M’s personnel and others close to Hernandez.

More from the AL West:

  • Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie acknowledged today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he has had some contact with the club about staying on past the present season. The team’s interest in maintaining the relationship has been known for some time, but it’s interesting nevertheless to hear Lowrie address the matter. To this point, Lowrie says, talks haven’t moved past an initial expression of interest. But he says he likes it in Oakland and believes he fits the club well, so it certainly sounds as if the good vibes flow in both directions. No doubt that’s due in some part to the immense success both player and team have found this year. It’s a second-straight eyebrow-raising season at the plate for Lowrie, who owns a healthy .276/.360/.455 slash since the start of the 2017 campaign. He has set himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market — if nothing comes together first with the A’s.
  • In yet more unwelcome health news for the Athletics, righty Trevor Cahill has gone down with a rhomboid muscle strain, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The upper-back ailment comes at an uncomfortable proximity to the postseason, though it seems as if the expectation is he won’t miss more than a single start. To be sure that things aren’t more serious, Cahill is headed in for an MRI.
  • Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs was able to work up to a 48-pitch sim game today, skipper Mike Scioscia tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). It’s still not clear whether he’ll return to the majors this year, though that figures to be a topic of discussion in the coming days. The 27-year-old, who is rehabbing from an adductor strain, is looking to extend his personal-best 116 2/3-inning, 3.78 ERA showing on the season. Whether or not he’s able to do so, Skaggs has impressed and now seems to be one of the club’s best bets to provide quality frames in 2019 — if he can stay healthy. Skaggs will likely command a nice raise in his second-to-last trip through the arbitration process after earning $1,875,000 this year.
  • It’s still not clear when Rangers prospect Willie Calhoun will get his first real crack at the big leagues. As T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com writes, Calhoun had seemed likely to see much more action in the 2018 season. Instead, after a relatively tepid season at the plate at the Triple-A level, Calhoun is seeing scattered time late this season. It seems the organization still wants to see more from the key piece of last year’s Yu Darvish swap before clearing the way. Beyond his known deficiencies in the field and on the bases, manager Jeff Banister seemingly hinted that there are some strength and conditioning steps that the youngster could take to improve.
  • In other Mariners news, the club will part ways with Triple-A skipper and longtime big leaguer player Pat Listach, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times recently tweeted. That’ll put an end to a four-year run at Tacoma for the former infielder, who has at times been mentioned as a future MLB managerial candidate.

Nationals Activate Jeremy Hellickson

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Jeremy Hellickson from the disabled list. He had been sidelined since suffering a wrist sprain during his last outing on August 15th.

It’s too late now for Hellickson to help the Nats crawl back into contention. And he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason if moved via trade. He will, however, add another arm to the mix while showcasing showcase for his own upcoming free agency.

Hellickson has neared the open market under quite different circumstances twice already. He received a qualifying offer from the Phillies after a strong 2016 campaign, but pitched poorly in 2017 after taking the hefty one-year deal. That set up a disappointing first foray into free agency, when he settled for a minors deal in D.C. in the middle of Spring Training.

Hellickson’s current contract came with only a $2MM base salary, though it did also include up to $4MM in incentives. Details on that clause have not yet been publicized, though it’s certainly possible that new thresholds could still be within reach.

To this point of the season, Hellickson has thrown 88 1/3 innings over 18 starts. That’s an average of less than five frames per outing, though that usage was by design rather than a reflection of poor pitching. In fact, Hellickson has thrived in this carefully controlled role, working to a 3.57 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a career-best 46.2% groundball rate.

In most ways, Hellickson looks to be much the same pitcher he always has been. By mostly eliminating his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a given outing, though, the Nats have lopped off his typically dreadful results in such situations. Perhaps that approach best explains the good year; of course, he’s also allowing only a .254 BABIP and is outperforming the expectations of ERA estimators (4.25 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA).

What that’s worth on the open market remains to be seen. But Hellickson has surely thrown well enough to warrant a deal that comes with a 40-man spot. It should help that he’ll have a chance to tamp down any health questions by returning for the last few weeks of the season, even if that means working out of the bullpen.

Tigers Owner Christopher Ilitch Expresses Optimism In Team’s Outlook

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Addressing the media yesterday, Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch struck a notably optimistic tone regarding his organization’s outlook. Evan Woodbery of MLive.com was among those to cover the chat; we’ll tick through a few items of particular note here.

Needless to say, with a 59-86 record, the current roster is not up to snuff. But that doesn’t mean the current campaign hasn’t been productive in the estimation of the man who sits top the organizational hierarchy.

As Ilitch put it, “I think this year has been a tremendous year of progress for the Detroit Tigers.” He credited the major-league club and its staff for producing “a fun team to watch,” even if it isn’t one that has won many games.

Of course, that substandard record was widely anticipated entering the year. GM Al Avila has been tasked with building for the future, rather than prioritizing the present. The Opening Day payroll was down by about $75MM against its 2016-17 levels and stands to fall yet further in the seasons to come.

The “tremendous” season cited by Ilitch, then, has less to do with the MLB showing than his take on the broader organizational overhaul efforts undertaken in this new era for the franchise. He explained:

“I see how hard Al Avila and his staff worked to enhance our scouting, our analytics, our player development. Our goal is very clear: We are working to build a world-class organization that will compete for championships on a sustainable basis. And I’m very committed to providing all of the resources and assets that are necessary to accomplish that.”

There’s little question that the Tigers have accumulated some intriguing young assets. The club’s farm is considered especially deep in pitching, led by recent first overall draft pick Casey Mize and including several other players added in recent drafts and trades.

Just when and how the club will begin to turn the corner again toward contention remains to be seen, but continued progress from those young arms could perhaps force the matter in relatively short order. Of course, health and development remain risk factors. And gathering up a new position-player core will also represent a challenge.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether Ilitch will spend to supplement the roster as lavishly as his father did, but it seems rather unlikely that the openness of his wallet will be tested full this coming offseason. Still, the club could consider some targeted free-agent spending, particularly if there’s good value to be had on a risky or more youthful player. And extensions could always be explored, though Nicholas Castellanos is the only realistic candidate who’ll be entering his walk year.

Luis Urias Unlikely To Return In 2018 After Hamstring Injury

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The Padres do not expect recently promoted infield prospect Luis Urias to return to action this season after suffering a hamstring injury last night, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. Though the full extent of the injury isn’t yet known, San Diego skipper Andy Green says it already seems “doubtful” Urias will make it back in 2018.

Clearly, with just over two weeks left to play, there isn’t a lot of time remaining to make it back onto the field. Most importantly, the Friars will want to be sure not to push a critical young player too hard at this late stage of a noncompetitive season.

Urias won’t turn 22 until next June, but he forced his way onto the MLB roster recently with another quality showing in the upper minors. In his 533 Triple-A plate appearances this season, Urias hit a career-high eight home runs and slashed an impressive .296/.398/.447.

Of course, Urias hasn’t been quite as impressive in his very first attempt at major-league pitching. In a dozen games, he has produced a .208/.264/.354 slash with two home runs and an uncharacteristic mix of ten strikeouts and just three walks.

That limited showing doesn’t detract from Urias’s lofty promise. And it’s certainly not going to prevent him from competing for a MLB job in camp next year. Still, that less-than-compelling output matters somewhat to his near-future roster outlook. Particularly if the hammy tweak sidelines Urias the rest of the way, he arguably will not have shown enough to lock up a starting role in advance of Spring Training.

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