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10 Starting Pitchers Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries

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We checked in last night at some position players who have done a lot in 2018 to boost their earning capacity in their first trip through arbitration. Now, we’ll turn to the hurlers. Remember, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz has divined, the touchstones for pitchers are innings, ERA, and accumulation of outcome-based stats — i.e., wins for starters. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.

Changes in the game may start to shift the arb earning metrics. But there’s still reason to believe the above-cited factors will continue to drive the process for the time being. Here are ten starting pitchers whose big seasons set the stage for strong 2019 salaries:

  • Aaron Nola, Phillies: It has been a dominant season for Nola, who has racked up 16 wins through 193 2/3 innings of 2.42 ERA pitching to this point. That adds to an already-impressive compilation of stats at this early stage of his career. It doesn’t seem he’ll capture the Cy Young vote, despite numbers sufficient to support a case, but even a top-three finish would bolster his arb resume.
  • Luis Severino, Yankees (likely Super Two): He hasn’t held up the pace all season long, but Severino is still carrying very appealing overall numbers — including those of the type that play well in arbitration. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 17 wins and 207 strikeouts. He has cracked 200 K’s now in consecutive seasons.
  • Sean Manaea, Athletics (likely Super Two): A shoulder injury diminishes Manaea’s future outlook and could keep him on the shelf for all of 2019. But other than robbing him of his final five starts, it doesn’t detract from a strong set of arb stats. He has reached 160 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and compiled a dozen wins. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Manaea also provided his agents with an ace in the hole when he spun a no-hitter earlier this season.
  • Matthew Boyd, Tigers (possible Super Two): If he can notch another win, Boyd will reach a ten-spot. But that’s not the only point in his favor from a surprisingly solid statistical line. Boyd is likely to finish with over 175 frames and could yet draw his ERA to below the 4.00 line; regardless of exactly how things turn out, he’ll be sturdy in both departments. And he has already topped 150 strikeouts. All told, he’s done a ton to advance his case after entering the season with an unappealing stat line. Of course, he’ll have to cross his fingers that 2.136 days of service is enough to qualify as a Super Two.
  • Jon Gray, Rockies: The candidates from this point forward all have some major warts. In this case, it’s an ugly 5.07 ERA that doesn’t match Gray’s strong peripherals. He’ll be dinged for that, no doubt, but also rewarded for tallying double-digit wins and over 160 innings with more still there for the taking.
  • Vince Velasquez, Phillies: He’s a big strikeout threat, but Velasquez has missed a few starts and his results don’t match his peripherals. Still, 139 innings of 4.53 ERA ball, with eight wins and 156 Ks, ought to play fairly well — particularly if he can pad that line over the final few outings of the season.
  • Tyler Anderson, Rockies: Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, to be sure, but Anderson’s 4.82 ERA isn’t going to be viewed with much favor. He also has only six wins. Still, he’s up to 162 1/3 innings and will be compensated for that fact alone.
  • Jose Urena, Marlins: Almost an exact match for Anderson, except with the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, Urena hasn’t been wildly impressive but is in line to get paid. He’s thrown precisely as many frames as Anderson and worked to a 4.21 ERA with a paltry seven wins.
  • Steven Matz, Mets: It hasn’t always been pretty, and the home runs are a problem, but Matz is currently through 140 frames with a 4.18 ERA. Though he only has five wins, the southpaw could yet end the season with 150 punchouts.
  • Junior Guerra (likely Super Two): Guerra gets the final spot over a few similarly situated hurlers because he has done so much to help himself this year. After a rough 2017 season, the late-blooming hurler’s future was in doubt. But he has taken the ball for 26 starts and two relief appearances, throwing 137 2/3 total innings of 4.18 ERA ball. He’s only sitting on six wins and 132 strikeouts, but the bottom-line results are solid.
  • Honorable Mention: The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is another likely Super Two, but he is headed in the wrong direction after generally quality work to open his career. In terms of outcomes, Mike Montgomery of the Cubs certainly deserved a nod, but he has only compiled 111 2/3 innings to this point and his 3.87 ERA is accompanied by only 74 strikeouts. It’s the opposite situation for Orioles righty Dylan Bundy, who’ll almost certainly end up with over 160 innings with more than a strikeout per frame but is also surrendering more than five earned runs per nine owing to an out-of-control home run rate.

Brewers, San Antonio Missions Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement

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In something of a surprise move, the Brewers and San Antonio Missions have announced today that they’ve line up on a two-year player development contract. This will be the first year that the Missions will function as a Triple-A club after the Colorado Springs SkySox decided to move their operations there.

Ultimately, then, the Brewers will have the opportunity to tap into a big new market while continuing to work with the same minor-league outfit that had hosted their highest-level affiliate in Colorado. While the San Antonio organization’s ballpark is still in need of some upgrades, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that there are plans in place to get the stadium up to full speed.

This news brings the affiliation matching dance down to just two teams on either side. Among major-league clubs, the Rangers will now place their top affiliate outside of Texas, while the Nationals are also still without a mate. Those two organizations will surely prefer Nashville — which lies just under 700 miles between both Arlington, TX and Washington, DC — to far-off Fresno, California.

How’d we get to this point? Nashville, of course, had been the site of the Brewers’ Triple-A club for some time before the minor-league outfit terminated the relationship. With an appealing setup, including a new park, the Sounds ended up lining up with the Athletics. But now the Oakland club is going to Las Vegas, which had been abandoned by the Mets when they bought the Nats’ former Syracuse affiliate. As for Fresno, its relationship with the Astros ended when the Houston club saw a chance to link up with former Rangers’ affiliate Round Rock.

Yankees Select Justus Sheffield, Move Clint Frazier To 60-Day DL

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The Yankees announced today that they have selected the contract of lefty Justus Sheffield, the organization’s top pitching prospect. He’ll be heading up for his first taste of the majors.

To create space on the 40-man roster, outfielder Clint Frazier was moved to the 60-day DL. The Yanks also brought up righty Domingo German to bolster their pitching options down the stretch.

Sheffield’s promotion was already reported over the weekend, but had not yet formally been made. The organization first had to sort out its roster machinations. Frazier, who came to the club along with Sheffield in the 2016 Andrew Miller swap, is going to be sidelined the rest of the year owing to his ongoing concussion issues.

Now that Sheffield is officially on the roster, it’ll be interesting to see how he’s utilized. Perhaps he will have some opportunities down the stretch, while the Yanks seek to hold off the A’s for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game. And it’s still conceivable that Sheffield could earn a role on the postseason roster.

10 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries

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No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.

On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.

MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.

While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.

On to the list:

  • Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
  • Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
  • Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
  • Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
  • Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
  • Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
  • Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
  • Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He  also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
  • Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
  • Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.

Dodgers Activate Trio Of Relievers

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The Dodgers have activated a trio of relievers to augment their bullpen down the stretch. Lefty Tony Cingrani and righties John Axford and Yimi Garcia will all head onto the active roster, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

Though the Los Angeles bullpen has actually been quite good of late as a unit, it had some notable struggles before that point and still features a fair bit of uncertainty. With work still to be done to reach the postseason, and playoff roster spots potentially at stake thereafter, the returnees will be most welcome.

In particular, Cingrani looks to be an intriguing (re-) addition to the relief unit. The southpaw has only a 4.84 ERA in his 22 1/3 innings, but has compiled an impressive 36:6 K/BB ratio. He also owns a career-high 13.9% swinging-strike rate, carrying over the leap he exhibited in 2017.

As for Axford, a summer trade pick-up, his first game with his new club was a complete mess but he came back for two effective appearances thereafter. Unfortunately, he has been on the shelf now for over a month. But there were obviously reasons that the Dodgers targeted him — his still-speedy heater and typically hefty groundball numbers perhaps chief among them — so the club still has cause to hope they’ll get some value.

As for Garcia, he had been on optional assignment after struggling with injuries and performance for much of the season. The 28-year-old has still not gotten back to the impressive form he showed as a rookie way back in 2015, with health problems — in particular, Tommy John surgery — limiting him to just 44 1/3 professional innings since that campaign. Garcia has thrown 17 2/3 minor-league frames without allowing a walk and while recording 18 strikeouts this year.

All of these hurlers will be pitching for their own benefit as well, of course. Cingrani and Garcia are both eligible for arbitration. For the former, padding his innings totals will help boost his payday; for the latter, it’s still unclear whether he’ll be tendered, though cost won’t be a factor since he’ll be extremely affordable. As for Axford, who’ll return to free agency at season’s end, his showing will be of particular importance.

Blue Jays Recall Anthony Alford

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have recalled outfielder Anthony Alford. He was already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves will be required.

It’s an oddly timed move on the surface, as Alford — who is by most accounts one of the organization’s top prospects — wrapped up his Triple-A season a couple of weeks back. He’s also the last 40-man player, aside from outfielder Dalton Pompey, to be activated.

As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca explains, though, the timing makes more sense when you look more closely. Alford is being asked up as a way of rewarding him for his efforts this year, Davidi writes, the club is wary of allowing him to accrue enough service time that he may ultimately qualify as a Super Two.

To this point, despite very limited MLB action, Alford has accumulated 101 days of service. Had he spent all of September on the active roster and cracked the 2019 roster very early in the season, he might have been on track for an early arb trip.

As things have turned out, there’ll be no real consideration of Super Two status — at least, that is, at the beginning of the 2019 season. The longer Alford remains in Triple-A next year, in fact, the more important the number of service days becomes, because it’ll also be possible for the Jays to keep him short of a full season of MLB service.

Ultimately, this timing call is hardly a major strategic undertaking, since Alford still needs to show he’s deserving of a full look in the majors. Certainly, this situation doesn’t merit the kind of scrutiny that has attached to decisions not to promote some other, more hyped young players (including a certain teammate of Alford’s).

Alford, after all, managed only a .240/.312/.344 slash line in his 417 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not what was hoped for after a strong showing last year at Double-A and in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. After running a 45:35 K/BB ratio in 289 plate appearances at the penultimate level of the minors in 2017, Alford’s 112:30 mix this year is especially disappointing.

Clay Buchholz Out For Remainder Of Season

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TODAY: Buchholz won’t undergo surgery, telling Buchanan (Twitter link) and other reporters that he will receive a PRP injection.  The right-hander expects to be ready to pitch by Spring Training.

YESTERDAY: Diamondbacks righty Clay Buchholz will not return to the club in 2018, skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters including Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Buchholz has been diagnosed with a flexor mass strain in his right elbow.

While the D-Backs won tonight, their postseason hopes are fading regardless of the status of Buchholz. Still, it’s another blow to a team that has collapsed late in the season.

The news is a bigger problem, perhaps, for the veteran hurler. He has had plenty of arm troubles in the past, which helps explain how he ended up in Arizona on a minors deal. Buchholz originally signed this year with the Royals but was allowed to depart rather than being added to the MLB roster.

The Snakes were rewarded handsomely for the decision to bring Buchholz in, even if he won’t be able to finish out the season. He not only filled 98 1/3 innings, but allowed just 2.01 earned runs per nine along the way while recording 81 strikeouts against 22 walks.

That showing seemed to set the veteran up for a more successful return to the open market. There were some issues, to be sure, including the fact that he’s averaging about two miles per hour less on his fastball than he did in his most recent full seasons. But that didn’t stop Buchholz from posting a 9.7% swinging-strike rate that raised his career average.

Still-unknown details of the injury certainly remain the key to this story, as the true severity of the injury isn’t really clear. It’s certainly possible that Buchholz will be able to get back up to full strength with some offseason rest and rehab. Regardless, it’s a disappointing way for an otherwise encouraging campaign to wrap up.

Latest On Josh Donaldson

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Josh Donaldson’s difficult season and recent trade have prompted plenty of looks in the rearview mirror to imagine what might have been. Now with the Indians for the tail end of an injury-plagued year, the veteran third bagger could instead have inked a long-term deal to stay in Toronto or been shipped elsewhere.

Multiple organizations reputedly sought to acquire Donaldson from the Blue Jays before the start of the season. Reports at the time pegged the Cardinals as a major pursuer, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today now reports on Twitter that the club was indeed serious about landing Donaldson. While he had only one year of contract control remaining, and a hefty $23MM salary, the St. Louis organization was evidently not shy about giving up significant talent to make a deal.

Indeed, per the report, the Cards offered up a two-player package that included young righty Jack Flaherty — the same hurler who might well be cruising to a National League Rookie-of-the-Year award were it not for the brilliance of two historic young hitters. Flaherty’s ongoing ability to suppress base hits — he’s allowing only a .248 BABIP — may reasonably be questioned. But his 132 1/3-inning showing (to this point) has been amply impressive even if it comes with some batted-ball fortune.

Unquestionably, the Jays would take a do-over on their decision not to accept that offer. But that’s based as much or more on the ensuing injuries to Donaldson as it is Flahrty’s emergence. And if we’re going to consider what-if’s, there’s another entire scenario that also could have occurred. In this case, the outcomes favor the Toronto ballclub.

It has long been known that the Blue Jays explored the possibility of an extension with Donaldson in advance of the 2018 season. Details, though, have not only been slow to emerge, but have come with no small amount of controversy.

Today, Jon Heyman of Fancred fired the latest shot in an ongoing back-and-forth with Donaldson’s agents regarding pre-2018 extension talks with the Blue Jays. Heyman argues that “the Jays and the Donaldson camp knew exactly where they stood” in terms of contract price last spring, citing some of the player’s own comments to support his reporting. And, he insists, the Blue Jays made clear they’d be willing to pay something at or over the three-year, $75MM level to make a deal, if not a bit more.

In Heyman’s telling, the Donaldson camp found that level insufficient — which, as Heyman notes, would certainly have been a fair position to take given Donaldson’s outstanding level of play in the preceding campaigns. The recently stated position of agent Dan Lozano, however, is that “the team never extended an offer” and that “no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed.”

Those interested in the topic will want to read all the materials and reach their own conclusions. Broadly, the post mortem on the end of Donaldson’s tenure in Toronto is interesting for a variety of reasons. But it’s clearly also not a subject that necessarily needs to feature winners and losers. Certainly, there was no known reason to think that Donaldson was headed for such a calamitous season — either for the Blue Jays or the player’s reps. Historians may debate the facts, but they won’t likely dispute that the player was warranted in seeking a massive payday and that the club was justified in demanding a big return via trade.

In any event, for the Indians the focus now is solely on what Donaldson can do on the field. He broke through with a home run today, a promising sign for the club as it seeks to get him up to full speed in advance of the postseason. When the season ends, the veteran will be able to choose his next uniform for himself.

An Early Look At J.A. Happ’s Next Contract

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As you may or may not recall, we have been touting J.A. Happ for a fair portion of the present season, dating at least to our first ranking of the top summer trade candidates. The veteran southpaw has certainly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations since he ended up being traded. Now, as he prepares for the postseason with the Yankees, it’s worth taking an early look at his potential free-agent earnings.

Happ, of course, already went on the market not long ago. At the time, he was coming off of an oddball 2015 season that he finished in dominating form. His resulting three-year, $36MM deal certainly rewarded a strong late-year push from a pitcher who had — just months before — seemed at risk of entering a late-career journeyman phase.

That pact worked out swimmingly for the Jays, who received 77 generally excellent starts from Happ before spinning him off to the division-rival Yanks for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. For New York, the tail end of the deal has been quite a nice asset as well.

In his past eight starts, in fact, Happ has allowed just 14 earned runs on 38 hits, with a 43:9 K/BB ratio, over 46 2/3 innings. For the year, he has averaged a career-high 9.7 K/9 on a personal-best 10.3% swinging-strike rate It’s not all roses, of course. The quality results have come in spite of the fact that Happ has struggled to limit the long ball, allowing 1.4 per nine on the season.

All said, Happ has probably deserved the results — a 3.75 ERA in 160 2/3 innings — that he has produced on the year. The dingers have driven up his FIP (4.01), but xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.60) suggest his outcomes matchhis performance.

Looking ahead, the outlook seems promising. Happ is throwing as hard as ever. His output has been steady and excellent for some time now. And he has a rather long track record of durability, having averaged 153 innings for the past eight seasons and 168 annually for the past four (which will go up when 2018 is completed).

It’s possible that Happ will slot in behind Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, and Dallas Keuchel to become the fourth-highest-paid starter on this lefty-loaded market. Certainly, the more youthful Gio Gonzalez could also stake a claim to the fourth spot, particularly if he finishes strong, but he has had some rough patches this year and his velocity decline remains a concern. Charlie Morton would be in the same general position as Happ, in terms of his age, but with a more impressive recent showing. In his case, though, he has strongly suggested he won’t just be seeking to maximize an overall contract guarantee; if anything, Morton sounds like a man who’ll only sign on for a single season at a time. Fellow veteran southpaw Cole Hamels could surely also be a factor, particularly at a somewhat younger age, though it remains to be seen how clubs will view the sustainability of his recent performance boost since moving via trade.

Regardless of the precise rank ordering, Happ’s general market position makes eminently possible that a fair number of contending teams will view him as a more appealing target than some of the younger, more expensive pitchers ahead of him. Capturing a quality arm for a shorter term, after all, holds appeal in and of itself. There’s no real chance of Happ signing for more than three years, while it could take a five-year commitment to land Corbin or Keuchel. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that signing Happ won’t mean giving up draft picks since he’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.

So, supposing there’s steady interest in Happ, what’s the contractual upside here? As noted, there’s no real argument for his reps to pursue a four-year term given his age. Happ will be selling his age-36 season and beyond.

That gives us a rather clear bound. But it doesn’t mean Happ can’t still earn quite well. In fact, two recent comps suggest he can. Entering his age-37 season, coming off of an excellent campaign, John Lackey secured a two-year, $32MM commitment from the Cubs. Even more recently, Rich Hill reached three guaranteed years at the same $16MM AAV despite the fact that he, too, was also entering his age-37 year and had no shortage of historical injury issues.

In each of those cases, perhaps, stellar outcomes helped to drive the paydays. Happ, arguably, hasn’t impressed to the same degree in his immediate platform year. But we already know he could secure a $12MM annual commitment. His steady velocity is a highly notable consideration. And the three-year run-up to this free agency has been stellar. (As of right now: 501 innings of 3.47 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.)

So, there’s certainly a case to be made that Happ ought to out-earn his last contract on an otherwise similar arrangements. Even if he doesn’t quite reach the $16MM annual value level of those prior (and somewhat older) comps, Happ has a very strong chance to achieve more than a $40MM guarantee over a three-year term. And the yearly value could even rise beyond the Lackey/Hill levels if there’s particularly robust interest or if Happ prefers a two-year arrangement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Bruce Bochy Says He Hopes To Manage Giants In 2019

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Long-time Giants skipper Bruce Bochy left little doubt that he wants to return next season in a chat with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. His current contract expires after the 2019 campaign.

Certainly, the results haven’t been there over the past two seasons — and, especially, in recent weeks. Even if the postseason long seemed a difficult objective after a disastrous 2017 effort, the club hung in the hunt for most of the current season. But the Giants are now closer to last place in the NL West than they are to third, reflecting a brutal stretch of play.

The writing was already on the wall when CEO Larry Baer expressed clear support for the team’s leadership. But it could be that the sudden downturn, along with other unhappy developments such as season-ending surgery for Buster Posey, has upped the uncertainty.

As Shea explains, it’s unclear at the moment whether the club remains committed to Bochy. Similarly, the club’s long-tenured front office leadership has yet to receive any public assurances. Both Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans will enter the offseason with a single season left on their deals, too.

For his part, though, Bochy says he’s still fully on board. “I still enjoy this as much as I did my first year,” he tells Shea. Of course, he also made clear that his drive is based upon the fact that he “want[s] to get back to the postseason.” Just how much of a priority contention will be in 2019 isn’t yet clear.

All things considered, the Giants face an immense amount of uncertainty. The options are limited with about $125MM in salary commitments already written in stone for each of the next two seasons — much of which is tied up in underperforming players.

Whether the uncertainty will lead to wholesale change, though, remains to be seen. Certainly, it’d be hard to lay the struggles of the past two seasons at Bochy’s feet. The roster wasn’t quite up to snuff on paper, even before injuries and declines intervened. Whether or not Bochy shares a significant portion of the blame, though, he could be caught up in a broader shift — if, that is, the club’s ownership decides it’s time to blow up a leadership combination that has brought so much success.

Giants fans, in particular, will certainly want to give Shea’s piece a full read, as he covers a lot of ground on the broader subject of the organization’s situation.

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