Tyson Ross Nearing Decision
Veteran righty Tyson Ross is nearing a decision on his landing spot, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports on Twitter. The Rangers and Cubs have long been said to be the leading suitors, but there are at least four other clubs with ongoing interest.
Last we heard, the 29-year-old Ross was said to be taking his time with deciding where to sign. But it seems that he has largely sorted through the various offers, which apparently have come from quite a few organizations.
It’s not yet clear just what kind of deal Ross will land, but presumably he’s seeking a one-year pact. He surely hoped to hit the open market in search of a much larger and lengthier agreement than he’ll command, but he missed all of 2016 and is still working back from thoracic outlet surgery.
Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Michael Pineda
The Yankees have avoided arbitration with righty Michael Pineda, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $7.4MM in the deal, which is $400K shy of MLBTR’s projection.
Pineda, who’ll soon turn 28, earned a solid raise over his $4.3MM salary from 2015 despite an unsightly 4.82 ERA and just six wins. He did log 175 2/3 innings and struck out 207 batters on the year (against just 53 walks), which no doubt aided his cause.
This is Pineda’s final season of club control before he reaches the open market. His K/BB tallies remain impressive, but Pineda has been hurt by surrendering a lofty BABIP (.339) and too many home runs (1.4 per nine innings).
Angels Avoid Arbitration With Espinosa, Calhoun, Richards, Shoemaker
JAN. 13: The Angels have avoided arb with right fielder Kole Calhoun and right-handers Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker, reports Heyman (all Twitter links). Calhoun will earn a $6.35MM salary in his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, while Richards will earn $6.85MM and Shoemaker will receive $3.325MM.
JAN. 12: The Angels have reached a deal with infielder Danny Espinosa to avoid arbitration, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $5.425MM for the 2017 season.
That’s a slight bump over the $5.3MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected. Though Espinosa, 29, turned in a below-average overall offensive season last year, slashing .209/.306/.378, he did pop 24 home runs over his 601 plate appearances. That helped to drive a solid raise over Espinosa’s $2.875MM salary from 2016.
As he entered his final season of arb eligibility, Espinosa was dealt to the Halos from the Nationals — the only organization for which he has previously played. While it’s a fairly hefty salary for a player with his strikeout tallies, Espinosa is also regarded as a top-quality defender. That doesn’t pay in the arbitration process, but helps justify his earnings for the season to come.
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Duda, Reed, Familia
JAN. 13: The Mets have also avoided arb with setup man Addison Reed and closer Jeurys Familia, per a pair of reports from Heyman and James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links). Reed will earn $7.75MM and Familia will take home $7.425MM. Familia was projected to earn $8.7MM and came in a fair bit shy of that sum, while Reed’s unique background somewhat “broke” MLBTR’s arbitration model and resulted in a $10.6MM projection. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who designed the model, explained earlier this week why Reed’s case was something of an outlier and suggested at the time that a salary in the range of $8MM was more likely.
JAN. 12: The Mets have avoided arbitration with first baseman Lucas Duda, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Duda will receive $7.25MM in the deal.
That’s a fairly healthy bump over the MLBTR projection of $6.725MM, which would have been a repeat of Duda’s 2016 salary. Ultimately, he’ll get about half a million more after an injury-limited season in which he took just 172 plate appearances.
Duda will be looking to get on track before hitting the open market after the season. First, he’ll need to return to health after a long layoff due to back surgery. If he’s able to do that, there’s certainly reason to think he can be a productive bat at first base. Between 2014 and 2015, he slashed .249/.350/.483 with 57 home runs.
Mariners Avoid Arbitration With Jean Segura
The Mariners have agreed to a $6.2MM salary to avoid arbitration with newly acquired shortstop Jean Segura, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). On the heels of his big 2016 season, Segura will earn $6.2MM.
That’s a healthy payday for the 26-year-old, who Seattle acquired in a significant trade earlier this winter. But it falls well shy of the $7.3MM projected by MLBTR’s arbitration model. Segura earned $2.6MM in 2016, his first year of arb eligibility.
Matt Swartz, who developed that model, had broken down Segura’s case before the news of the agreement came through (and before we had a chance to publish that analysis). It was difficult to value the infielder precisely, he notes, due to a lack of reasonably comparable players, though Segura’s projected salary seemed a bit lofty.
Arbitration pays best for counting statistics, and Segura fared quite well in that regard in 2016. He not only took 694 trips to the plate, but swatted twenty home runs and swiped 39 stolen bases in that span, while posting a .319 batting average and driving in 64 runs.
Recent middle-infield comps, such as Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond, weren’t nearly as productive, so their respective ~$2.7MM raises seemed like floors. The most direct comp, perhaps, came from center fielder Lorenzo Cain, whose salary jumped by $3.78MM after he posted a .307 batting average with 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 2015. Swartz viewed that figure as something of a low-end estimate for Segura, given his bigger numbers.
As it turns out, though, Segura will fall just shy of Cain with a $3.6MM raise. Of course, negotiation and risk tolerance play a major role in the arbitration process, and it’s difficult to judge the matter without full knowledge of all the considerations.
Regardless, Seattle will be pleased to have Segura at this general price point. The team gave up two talented young players in Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to add his two years of control (along with Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis), so the team surely has high expectations as the 2017 season draws near.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pirates Avoid Arbitration With Drew Hutchison, Jared Hughes
9:04pm: The Bucs have also knocked out their case with fellow righty Jared Hughes, Heyman adds on Twitter. He secures a $2.825MM deal that lands over his $2.5MM projection. The 31-year-old, eligible for the second time, didn’t quite maintain his output from his prior two seasons but ended the 2016 season with a strong 3.03 ERA over 59 1/3 innings with 5.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 57.9% groundball rate.
7:47pm: The Pirates have avoided arbitration with righty Drew Hutchison, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’s set to earn $2.3MM.
That figure comes in just over the $2.2MM salary that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Hutchison to take down in his second season of arbitration eligibility. Though Hutchison went through the process last year with the Blue Jays, earning $2.2MM, he did not accrue enough service time to pass four total years of MLB service, so he’ll earn only a nominal raise and remain controllable through 2019.
Pittsburgh acquired Hutchison last summer in the trade-deadline deal that sent Francisco Liriano and prospects to Toronto. Hutchison ended up throwing just 24 major league frames in 2016, working to a 5.25 ERA. Though he posted a 22:7 K/BB ratio, he was also tagged for six home runs. Hutchison spent much of the year at the Triple-A level, where he recorded a 3.59 ERA across 138 innings with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland
7:41pm: Righty T.J. McFarland has also agreed to terms, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll earn $685K in 2017, just shy of his $700K projection.
6:35pm: The Orioles have avoided arbitration with infielder Ryan Flaherty, according to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com (via Twitter). He’ll earn $1.8MM and become the first arb-eligible Oriole to settle this year.
Flaherty will take home just a shade more than the $1.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected. The 30-year-old made just 176 MLB plate appearances in 2016 and managed only three home runs, limiting his earning power in his final run through arbitration.
Of course, Baltimore values Flaherty primarily as a versatile bench piece. He’s capable of playing all over the infield, including shortstop when necessary. And though he has never produced much at the plate, Flaherty has typically rated well as a baserunner.
Indians Avoid Arbitration With Dan Otero
The Indians have avoided arbitration with righty Dan Otero, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll earn $1.05MM in his first season of eligibility, falling short of the $1.2MM that the MLBTR model had projected.
Otero, 31, was picked up in a waiver trade last winter, and went on to provide tremendous production for Cleveland. He logged a robust 70 2/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball, with 57 strikeouts against just ten walks. He also chipped in 7 2/3 quality postseason innings during the team’s World Series run.
White Sox Avoid Arbitration With Dan Jennings, Jake Petricka
The White Sox have avoided arbitration with lefty Dan Jennings and righty Jake Petricka, per reports from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter) and Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link). Jennings will take home $1.4MM, while Petricka is set to earn $825K.
MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected Jennings at $1.2MM, but he’ll land just north of that mark. The 29-year-old southpaw didn’t carry particularly impressive peripherals, but did turn in 60 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA pitching in 2016. This is his first year of arb eligibility, and Jennings set himself up well with a solid platform year to go with his career 2.74 ERA over 217 total innings.
It’s also the first time through the process for Petricka, who missed much of the 2016 season due to hip surgery. He’ll fall just a bit shy of his $900K projection, but still will earn a solid raise over the league minimum as he looks to get back on track. Over four total seasons in the majors, Petricka carries a 3.31 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.