Three Needs: Oakland Athletics
We’ll continue here with our “Three Needs” series, in which we break down a few high-level needs of teams that fell out of contention early. (Soon, we’ll take full looks at every team’s offseason outlook.)
For the Athletics, a last-place finish in the AL West for the second straight year probably won’t spur a full-blown rebuild — it’s just not how the team has operated — but will likely lead to a fair bit of roster turnover this winter.
1. Improve the speed and defense.
If Oakland’s combined position-player fWAR from 2016 was doubled, it would still be nearly a win shy of the next-to-worst team in baseball. Though the team’s hitting was below-average (91 wRC+), it was the bottom-of-the-barrel baserunning and defense that did most of the damage.
The A’s had company in their troubles on the bases, with the Cardinals, Angels, and Tigers also in the conversation for worst in the game. But on defense, the A’s were far and away the least gloveable team in the league, by measure of both UZR and DRS. And that’s before accounting fully for the work behind the dish, where primary catcher Steven Vogt is one of the lowest-rated receivers in baseball (see here and here).
There may not be a lot of opportunity to change things in the infield beyond hoping for internal improvement. Moving Danny Valencia off of third base helps, but Ryon Healy isn’t an inspiring defensive choice either. Marcus Semien had a whole lot less errors, at least, so perhaps he can drive some further improvement next year at short. If he can return to health, Jed Lowrie will be looking to improve on his metrics in limited action this season at second, but age and injury pose questions. At first, Yonder Alonso has typically graded well, but had his worst season by the metrics in 2016. (Of course, his bat was a bigger problem.)
While consideration should be given to tweaking that alignment, the outfield is the key area that Oakland can target to add some speed and glovework. Read on for more on that area of need:
Manfred: MLB Nearing Completion Of Investigation Into Cardinals-Astros Hacking Case
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred says that the league is nearing the end of its investigation into the improper accessing of the Astros’ computer systems by at least one Cardinals employee, as the Associated Press reports (via USA Today).
“We are in the process of finishing up our investigation,” said Manfred. “I wish it had gotten a little more help a little sooner from the U.S. attorney’s office. But the cards come up how they come up, and we’re going to finish our investigation, and there will be a resolution of that during this offseason.”
Unsurprisingly, the commissioner did not hint as to whether the team would face any punishment, or if so of what kind and severity. The individual seemingly directly responsible for mining information from the computer systems of the Houston organization, then-Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, has already paid an extremely heavy price with a prison sentence and order to pay restitution.
It seems to be all but a foregone conclusion that the Cards will face some kind of punitive measure, since the intrusion came from a fairly high-ranking member of its front office hierarchy. But the scope will surely be tied to Manfred’s assessment of how high up the chain of command the matter rose. The Cardinals have suggested publicly that this was an isolated situation, but as Manfred’s comments hint, nobody is really sure what the prosecuting authorities know (and what of that they’ve shared with the league).
Latest On Mets After Wild Card Loss: Yo, Walker, Bruce, Duda
The Mets lost a tough one last night, falling to the Giants and Madison Bumgarner when Conor Gillaspie blasted a three-run bomb off closer Jeurys Familia. Thus begins an interesting offseason for the organization, which continues to have plenty of major league talent but also faces many questions. The action won’t get underway in earnest for a few weeks, but ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin provides some important information on some significant players:
- Unsurprisingly, the Mets expect star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to opt out of the remaining two years of his deal after another outstanding season. Rubin says the team is expressing pessimism about a reunion, but does intend to try after smartly re-signing him last winter. The current thinking is that the Mets will offer something on the same order as Cespedes’s most recent deal, with some front-loaded cash, a relatively modest term of years, and an opt-out after the first season. Whether that’s enough remains to be seen, but may depend upon whether another team is willing to make a truly significant guarantee after watching Cespedes post another top-notch campaign.
- It is clear, Rubin suggests, that Cespedes truly enjoys playing in New York, so perhaps that’s the ace in the hole for Sandy Alderson and co. The Cuban star said last night that he “hope[s]” to return to New York, as Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, though that’s approximately the same line he has repeated when asked about the subject over the course of the season. All told, it seems possible but hardly likely that the Mets will lay enough cash on the table to bring him back.
- The Mets intend to make Neil Walker a qualifying offer so long as he continues to progress following his back surgery. In fact, it’s possible that the organization will be interested in a multi-year pact with the second baseman, per the report. There could well be some opportunity for such an approach, given that Walker’s upcoming free agency figures to be impacted somewhat by the procedure. Though he has suggested that it’s actually a good thing — it ought to fix a long-standing problem — any uncertainty is problematic when guaranteed money is on the table. And entering the market with draft pick compensation would only increase the risk for Walker. That seems to leave some daylight for a new contract that would keep him in New York for a few years. Rubin notes, too, that Walker has remained involved even after his season ended, suggesting that he truly enjoyed being with the club.
- In some part, the presence of Jay Bruce suggests that the team isn’t fully convinced it can afford Cespedes, as the lefty slugger provides another corner outfield option through his $13MM option. Rubin says the team was already going to commit that cash before Bruce ended his rough second half on a high note. That does begin to tilt the Mets’ lineup to the left side, as both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto already feature as southpaw-swinging outfield options. And as Rubin also notes, the late-season return of Lucas Duda makes it nearly certain that he’ll be tendered, plugging another lefty bat in at first base. Duda’s injury-limited campaign means he won’t be owed much of a raise on his $6.725MM salary in his final year of arbitration.
White Sox Outright Jacob Turner
The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Jacob Turner to Triple-A, per a club announcement. That move leaves the organization with one open 40-man spot at present.
Though he is still just 25 years of age, the once-touted Turner has still not shown signs of reaching his former promise. He wasn’t terribly effective even at the Triple-A level, and was bombed for a 6.57 ERA over 24 2/3 major league innings.
Neither were the peripherals terribly promising. Opposing hitters made hard contact on nearly 40% of the balls they put in play against Turner. He ended with just 6.6 K/9 against a messy 5.8 BB/9 and sported a 26.3% home run-per-flyball rate to go with his more-promising 51.2% groundball rate.
Angels Claim Blake Parker, Kirby Yates; Designate Nick Buss, A.J. Achter
The Angels have claimed pitchers Blake Parker and Kirby Yates from the Yankees, according to an announcement from New York. In a corresponding move, the Halos designated outfielder Nick Buss and righty A.J. Achter.
Parker and Yates both provide the Angels with bullpen options heading into 2017, at least assuming they hold onto their 40-man positions over the months to come. The former threw 17 1/3 major league innings last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. He was much better, however, during his time at Triple-A, which came with the Mariners organization.
As for Yates, he’ll look to bounce back after coughing up 5.23 earned runs per nine in his 41 1/3 innings with the Yanks. Actually, though, his peripherals were rather promising. He logged 10.9 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 while carrying a career-high 11.6% swinging strike rate and topping 93 mph with his average fastball for the first time.
Moving off of the Halos’ big league roster are Buss and Achter. The former cracked the majors briefly last year, struggling badly in 90 plate appearances. In his 372 Triple-A plate appearances, Buss posted a .290/.345/.462 batting line with six home runs.
The 28-year-old Achter threw a superficially productive 37 2/3 major league innings, with a 3.11 ERA, but things didn’t look great under the hood. He managed only 14 strikeouts against 12 walks while permitting 43 hits. Perhaps only sequencing luck — he carried a 93.1% strand rate — got in the way of much greater damage.
The Yankees also announced that righty Anthony Swarzak elected free agency rather than taking an outright assignment. He tossed 31 innings for the Yankees after a solid showing at Triple-A, but the results didn’t match up to his peripherals. Swarzak ended the year with a 5.52 ERA, owing largely to a sky-high 2.90 homers per nine. But he did compile 9.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 with a 46.4% groundball rate — leading to a 3.21 SIERA and 3.86 xFIP.
Latest On Diamondbacks’ Front Office Situation
Change is afoot in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks have already parted ways with GM Dave Stewart, VP DeJon Watson, and manager Chip Hale. Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, who oversaw all of the baseball operations department, will no longer carry that mantle moving forward.
Assistant GM Bryan Minniti will seemingly take the reins on an interim basis, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports, though he has not been given any official nod — even temporarily — as of yet. Though his own role remains unsettled, La Russa may also be involved in handling the early offseason decisionmaking while the front office search ramps up.
Minniti, who joined the Arizona front office after a stint with the Nationals, is also likely to receive consideration for the full-time job, per the report. (He has long been considered a potential GM, as former MLBTR scribe Ben Nicholson-Smith explored way back in 2011.) Likewise, farm director Mike Bell may be viewed as a candidate as the D-Backs’ upper management group assesses its options.
In terms of external possibilities, we haven’t heard any names as of yet, and the organization has suggested it intends to remain quiet on the matter. But many around the game are wondering whether the Diamondbacks will struggle to attract some candidates owing to their frequent front office turnover and recent turmoil, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
While various executives with rival teams gave Piecoro different indications about how big a concern they’d have with joining the Arizona organization, some were clear that its reputation is not strong. One unnamed exec who has been considered as a GM target told Piecoro that, while running the D-Backs’ baseball ops would hold “surface” appeal, “from everything I hear about some of the dysfunction up there, to be quite candid, I would have zero interest.” Another wondered whether the club would need to give out a lengthy guarantee to entice a quality candidate to “mov[e] your family for that level of insecurity, juxtaposed to the security that some of us have” in current positions with rival teams.
Brian Cashman On Yankees’ Offseason Plans
Yankees GM Brian Cashman took his turn breaking down the club’s 2016 season and previewing the offseason that lies ahead. Jack Curry of the YES Network was among those on hand, and all links below are to his Twitter feed:
- When asked about the possibility of dealing for a top-line starter such as Chris Sale, Cashman said he’d be “hard-pressed” to part with the haul of young talent needed to pull off such a deal. He indicated that it would be a “dangerous approach” to chase that kind of acquisition, especially given that his club is more than one piece away from pushing for a championship
- Dellin Betances is in line to remain the Yankees’ closer, though Cashman held out the possibiity that the club will “do something different.” Curry notes that his own expectation is the team will chase lefty Aroldis Chapman, who is heading onto the open market after spending part of 2016 in New York (prior to his mid-season trade to the Cubs).
- In other pitching news, intriguing young righty Luis Severino won’t come into camp with a rotation job locked up, Cashman said. Instead, he’ll need to prove himself in camp, with Cashman saying that he hopes Severino “can regain starter ceiling status” after a tough 2016 campaign. Though he contributed only 71 major league frames with a 5.83 ERA last year, Severino is only 22 years of age and threw well at the Triple-A level in 2016.
- Meanwhile, veteran lefty CC Sabathia is headed for a clean-up procedure for his knee. It’s said to be a “routine” operation, which presumably won’t prevent the 36-year-old from a full spring build-up. Sabathia is an important part of the Yankees’ pitching mix after his $25MM option vested. He contributed 179 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA pitching last year, making for a rather promising showing.
- New York will still presumably make an effort to bolster its rotation from the outside. Indeed, Cashman said the team will be on the lookout for opportunities to add arms. While the free agent picture is rather bleak, there are a few useful starters available as well as plenty of trade possibilities — even if chasing an ace likely isn’t in the cards.
- The Yankees have never asked catcher Brian McCann to waive his no-trade clause, which Cashman says represents an indication of how much the team values the veteran. McCann’s name has come up quite a bit in trade chatter with Gary Sanchez expected to take over primary duties behind the dish. But it’s certainly still plausible to imagine both players holding down important roles. Alternatively, with a lot of demand for catchers around the game, McCann could be moved to address another need.
- Meanwhile, the current plan is for Greg Bird and Tyler Austin to battle for playing time at first base while choosing from among Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Rob Refsnyder in right field. It’s likely the club will stay with its internal options in those areas, Cashman said, though he added that there is some uncertainty as to whether that mix will be sufficient.
- While he probably won’t be an option early in the year, hyped prospect Jorge Mateo could play his way into the team’s plans if he can turn things around after a rough 2016 at the High-A level. The 21-year-old, a shortstop by trade, is being exposed to center field in instructional league action this fall in a bid to increase his versatility.
- Cashman also addressed a few broader points. The organization still hopes to get under the luxury tax threshold at some point, which would reset the team’s rising tax figure. Both Cashman and skipper Joe Girardi will go year to year on their contracts rather than receiving any long-term assurances. And all coaches except Larry Rothschild are under contract, with the Yanks set to work on a new deal with their pitching coach.
Marlins Exercise Ichiro Option, Announce Prado Extension
The Marlins have officially announced that they have exercised the 2017 club option over outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and also added an additional $2MM option year to his deal. Miami also confirmed the previously-reported, three-year extension with third baseman Martin Prado.
It’ll cost the Fish just $2MM to bring back Ichiro, who topped 3,000 hits during his solid 2016 campaign. All told, he ran up a .288/.352/.374 batting line over 365 plate appearances. While nobody will mistake that for one of the Japanese star’s mid-prime seasons, it made him quite a useful fourth outfielder and represents remarkable productivity for a man of his age.
It remains to be seen whether the coming season will be the last for the all-time great performer. But it certainly appears that at least one more is under contemplation, given that the sides agreed to plug another option into his contract. With a starting outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna, the hope will be that Ichiro is deployed only sparingly, but he has been needed for rather extensive use in each of his two seasons in Miami.
As for the Prado contract, which was reported about a week ago, the Marlins will keep the versatile veteran from testing a market that likely would have valued him rather highly. Prado, meanwhile, avoids the risk of entering free agency after declining a qualifying offer, which would have held down his market by requiring other teams to sacrifice a draft choice to sign him.
With Prado locked in at third for the time being, the Marlins appear to have solidified their infield mix. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria did struggle quite a bit in 2016, but it’s unclear whether there’s any reasonable hope of upgrading. With Dee Gordon at second, J.T. Realmuto behind the plate, and Derek Dietrich available as a utility option, the only question may be what the team does to find a right-handed-hitting complement for Justin Bour at first base.
Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald tweeted that the announcements were expected today. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweeted on the additional option, while SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweeted its value.
Mozeliak On Cards’ Offseason Needs
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak spoke about several notable topics impacting the team in an interview with 101sports.com. You can find audio of the full chat at the link, but here are some of the highlights:
Generally, Mozeliak said that he is “still sort of reflecting on our past year,” which just ended a hair shy of qualifying for a sixth-straight postseason. That means that he doesn’t quite yet have a clear picture of how the club will tackle the winter to come. “I’m still sort of reflecting on our past year and I haven’t necessarily set out our offseason strategy,” says Mozeliak.
That being said, the veteran executive obviously has a good idea of where the needs will be. The rotation, in particular, suffered a significant fall-off in 2016. Mozeliak suggests that he sees room for more from veterans Adam Wainwright and Mike Leake, though he notes that’s hardly a sure thing. Michael Wacha remains a bit of a wild card, too, while the club sees reason for optimism in Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes. With Lance Lynn returning to join a list of possibilities that also includes Luke Weaver, Marco Gonzales (if he makes it back), Tim Cooney and others, Mozeliak says he hopes to “have the depth we thought we were going to have a year ago,” though he notes “that just means maybe something else is going to go wrong.”
Notably absent from that list of hurlers? Lefty Jaime Garcia. The club is reportedly still weighing whether to pick up his option, though Mozeliak’s comments seemed to throw some doubt on the idea that he’d be with the organization in 2017.
“What we’ll do is spend the next two to three weeks sorting through our roster and getting a feel for what we think makes the most sense for us,” Mozeliak said when asked about Garcia. “I just went through our rotation and I didn’t mention Jaime because I think, given how he finished, it’s going to be tough for him to fit in there. But I also would say last year when we were sitting here talking, I thought we were going to have Lance Lynn and then two weeks later he ends up having Tommy John. So you just never know.”
Of course, even if Garcia doesn’t end up with the Redbirds, he could have his option exercised and then be traded. Mozeliak also says he won’t hesitate to trade young players to drive improvement, though he suggests that he won’t overreact after just missing the playoffs.
“You can’t always react to just today’s needs,” says Mozeliak. “When you’re looking to build long term success you damn well better be keeping some assets in your system. I think, historically, we’ve proven right on that with that strategy. We’re not going to deviate.”
Otherwise, the organization has already stated an intention to improve defensively, and Mozeliak adds that he’d like to see the team become “a little bit more aggressive on the basepaths.” For the former, he notes that getting Kolten Wong more time at second base and “trying to find a consistent position for Matt Carpenter” would help with the infield, while the team has to figure out a center field solution.
Reading between the lines a bit, since Jedd Gyorko and Aledmys Diaz seem all but certain to command significant playing time, it’s fair to wonder where this assessment leaves Jhonny Peralta. He could conceivably share time at first or end up on the trade block. It also certainly seems as if the center field spot could be filled from the outside, with Randal Grichuk sliding over to a corner role. Perhaps there’s also a way the club can address the baserunning issue through a new up-the-middle performer; Mozeliak notes that he’s interested in “trying to get a little smaller on the basepaths, trying to add a little speed to this team,” and this may be the spot to target to find such a skillset.
Certainly, speed and defense are not the calling cards of slugger Brandon Moss, though defensive metrics rated him surprisingly well in the outfield in limited time there this season. Mozeliak says that the overall results from Moss were good, and praised his work in the clubhouse, but added that it was tough to deal with his lengthy slumps. Ultimately, there’s interest in bringing him back, says Mozelik, “but it’s going to be at what price?”
Phillies Owner John Middleton On Rebuilding Process, Progress
Phillies owner John Middleton covered a variety of interesting topics in a two-part interview with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (see here and here). Fans of the team will certainly want to give those pieces a full read, but here are a few highlights:
Middleton began by addressing the way that the organization’s recent leadership transition came about. The ownership group decided it needed to take a more public role as Ruben Amaro Jr. was moved out of the general manager’s seat. Ultimately, Andy MacPhail was brought in as president to drive a rebuild, with the organization feeling it “needed to go to the outside” to acquire executives with “a different knowledge base than an internal candidate would have.” Change, notes, Middleton, is now a clear organizational imperative.
“I think in a competitive world, the one constant is change,” he explained. “I want the Phillies to be at the forefront of change because in order to be successful in the long run, you have to be ahead of change rather than lagging behind it.”
As Middleton and MacPhail set out to put that philosophy into action, they hired Matt Klentak to run the baseball operations department. In part, that reflected a massive shift toward the use of analytics. Middleton explained how the club has ramped up its use of statistics and related tools:
“In 2013, our analytics department was zero. Zero people, zero budget. In 2014, we had one full time person, and one intern, and the budget from my memory was $100,000. Next year, we’re going to have a minimum of six full-time people, a number of interns, and a budget measured in the millions. Our competitors may add people, as well, and add to their budgets, but right now we’re projecting that we’re going to have one of the top analytics departments in baseball. We have come light-years in the last 12 months.”
There’s more to come, Middleton also mentioned. The Phils are working to develop “some proprietary analytical tools … specifically biomechanical analytics, trying to predict and prevent future injuries for pitchers by combining that analysis with our medical evaluations, human intelligence.”
Obviously, the rebuilding process isn’t always quick; he notes, in fact, that Klentak studied recent examples from competitors and found that a three-year down period is the likely minimum. Middleton stressed that he continues to exercise patience and intends to see the process through, though he noted that the organization hopes it can complete its own process on the shorter side of what others have required to return to contention. There’s progress, he says: the team as a whole, both hitters and pitchers, showed improvement in “controlling the strike zone,” which Middleton labeled “the cornerstone of [Klentak’s] vision of Phillies baseball going forward.” And the minor league ranks featured strong team and individual performances.
Whether and when the Phillies can break out — as soon as next year, but perhaps more likely in 2018 — will likely depend upon many variables, Middleton noted, including simply the developmental path of several important young players (and others who could emerge from relative obscurity). Philadelphia doesn’t seem inclined to make an early strike via free agency, with Middleton stressing that it’s not the way to build a roster. But he did acknowledge that the organization has “already started talking about issues like our current team and where we see strengths and weaknesses in the free agent market” over the next several years.
As the process continues to unfold, Middleton suggested that he won’t simply fade back into the background. If anything, it seems, he’ll take on an even more visible and important role both inside and outside the organization:
“My role has changed over the last two years and I find it interesting. I’m enjoying it a lot. I like working closely with Andy and Matt and I’m enjoying what I’m doing. I’m even thinking of getting an office in the stadium if they’ll let me do that. I see my job as making sure we have the right strategy in place to get us back to our championship form, and to make sure that we’re on track and on schedule with getting back there.”