Stearns, Counsell Break Down Brewers Heading Into 2017
As was the case for many other teams who won’t be enjoying a postseason berth, Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke with the media to break down the 2016 season and look ahead to the winter. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeted the pertinent comments.
Despite a dismal record (73-89), Milwaukee had many bright spots this year. That means the coming offseason likely won’t see quite as much turnover as occurred last winter, Stearns suggests and McCalvy tweets. There also won’t be any turnover in the coaching staff, with Counsell and all his field staff set to return, per another McCalvy tweet. An extension for Counsell, whose contract runs through next season, is also a possibility, writes Mike Bauman of MLB.com.
“Craig has gotten the most out of this team, and I feel very good about that,” Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said of Counsell, who took the helm in May 2015 after the firing of Ron Roenicke.
In addition to the coaching staff, Chris Carter will likely be back, the Brewers’ GM suggested (via a Haudricourt tweet). His 41 home runs make him a rather easy choice to return as the team’s primary first baseman, though they’ll also drive a big increase in his arbitration earnings. Carter earned a $2.5MM base salary, with $500K in incentives also triggered, after joining the Brewers via free agency. He is controllable in 2018 as well.
Infielder Jonathan Villar‘s position is unsettled, says Counsell, but he’ll certainly have a place after an immensely promising campaign (Twitter links via Haudricourt). The 25-year-old put up a .285/.369/.457 slash and contributed 19 home runs with 62 stolen bases. He led the majors in that last mark, though he also led the league in being caught 18 times on the bases. Counsell explains that the team pushed players’ limits on the bases this year, as McCalvy tweets, calling it a “necessary” step in driving the organization forward.
Fellow 25-year-old Hernan Perez wasn’t nearly as productive overall, but he provides value through his versatility, Counsell adds. He swiped 34 bags of his own while batting .272/.302/.428 over 430 plate appearances on the year. With solid glovework, Perez was worth an even two wins above replacement by measure of Baseball-Reference.com, and won’t even be arb-eligible until 2018.
There are, of course, some places to improve as Milwaukee builds back toward contention. As I advocated in assessing the team’s three chief needs, dealing star outfielder Ryan Braun at a peak in his value may well be a way to drive the rebuild forward. Stearns was understandably noncommittal on the point. “We’ll see what happens,” he said with regard to Braun (via Haudricourt, on Twitter).
MLBTR Live Chat: 10/4/16
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Silverman: Rays “Hellbent” On Return To Contention
The Rays are surely happy to put the 2016 season in the rearview mirror after ending up buried in the AL East basement. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman and manager Kevin Cash addressed the club’s situation heading into the offseason today, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
First and foremost, Silverman stressed that the club is “hellbent” on a return to contention, suggesting that a broad-based sell-off should not be expected. Tampa Bay dealt Matt Moore and Steve Pearce at the trade deadline, but the former was shipped from a position of depth while the latter was on a one-year deal.
Plus, the Moore swap brought in Matt Duffy, who the club hopes will solidify things at shortstop. His presence also allows the organization to utilize Brad Miller at first (or in a broader utility role), which Silverman suggested could be positive in several regards (via Topkin, on Twitter).
Silverman suggested that the club will need to balance its commitment to its core with the need to infuse some new blood. “We have a lot of the guys in house, but we’re going to need to make some changes and we’re going to need to bring in some new players, too,” he said. “The core is intact, the core is talented, and if you listen to the players talk, if you listen to Kevin and the coaches, they will tell you, too. There is still a lot of confidence, there is still a lot of optimism within our clubhouse, and that bodes well for next year.”
The two key organizational figures didn’t cite any major needs, which is a good thing given the team’s resource restraints. Improving the bullpen is one obvious area, and Cash also cited a desire to do a better job running the bases. Then, there’s the catching position, which Silverman acknowledged has been a “sore spot,” as Topkin further tweets.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether Silverman and co. can come up with any other creative options over the winter. As I wrote in breaking down three key needs for the club, there’s not only room to improve behind the plate and in the pen, but also perhaps an opportunity to add some offensive firepower. Looking to players like Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza to improve is obviously the key, but that doesn’t mean more can’t be done. What remains to be seen is whether the rotation-rich Rays will be willing to dip into the reservoir of starters once again after dealing Moore at the deadline. It is clear, though, that there’ll be interest from other teams; Silverman says he has already received calls on starting pitching, as Topkin tweets.
Royals Expect To Deal With Payroll Constraints In 2017
The Royals’ payroll will “regress” in 2017, according to GM Dayton Moore, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports. While Kansas City still intends to push to put a winner on the field after a disappointing, .500 campaign, it will face significant monetary restraints in finding ways to improve.
Dodd provides an extensive breakdown of the organization’s financial situation. The club carried approximately $135MM on its payroll on Opening Day of 2016, and is currently lined up to land near that team-record number as things stand (with arbitration raises factored in).
That kind of outlay, Moore suggested, is not likely. “This [2016] payroll was put together with going deep in the postseason [in mind],” said Moore. “That didn’t happen. Again, I’m accountable for that. It’s not going to look very good on the spreadsheet when the bill comes due.”
Looking ahead, it seems, there’s little chance that Kansas City will further bump that spending. If anything, it seems, the inclination may be to find ways to save. “[W]e’ll have to re-evaluate that, probably reorganize, take some steps back,” Moore explained. “We’re going to have to look internally and [in] trades,” he went on to add. “We won’t be adding money. That’s for darn sure.”
That will make for a challenge as K.C. seeks to return to contention. Certainly, better health and better play from key veterans could make a significant difference. But Moore cited an interest in bolstering the back of the pen and boosting the offense, which could require identifying the right internal talent and pursuing what Moore referred to as “creative” trade scenarios. He largely rejected the idea of adding salary in free agency after making some rather substantial outlays last winter.
Certainly, the totality of the comments seem to suggest that some change could be afoot. Key players such as Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Wade Davis, and Alcides Escobar are entering their final seasons of team control. While praising the organizational core, Moore said that the front office “also recognize[s] the need to maybe mix it up a little bit.”
Improving on offense will be a particular challenge given that the Royals may soon bid adieu to Kendrys Morales, their most productive hitter in 2016. He’s unlikely to pick up his side of a $10MM mutual option, and while the club could theoretically slap a qualifying offer on him, that would represent a big risk given the aforementioned financial constraints.
Moore suggested that it’s still an open question how things will play out with Morales, but it seems difficult to imagine a way to accommodate his return. “We’ll just keep all of our options open,” Moore said. “But he’s a player that we’re very proud of. He’s a big part of our success. We would love to have him back. I just don’t know if it will work at this point in time.”
Cardinals Still Weighing Jaime Garcia’s Option; “Floated” Him In Trade Talks This Summer
The Cardinals are still debating whether to pick up the $12MM club option over southpaw Jaime Garcia, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. St. Louis would need to pay a $500K buyout if it declines.
Garcia, 30, just made thirty starts for only the second time in his career, representing a highly promising return to health for a pitcher who has battled shoulder problems. But his results fell well shy of his established benchmark. Between his first full season in the majors through last season (i.e., 2010-2015), Garcia compiled a 3.25 ERA over 708 1/3 innings.
In his 171 2/3 frames in 2016, Garcia ended up allowing 4.67 earned runs per nine. His peripherals weren’t that far off of his career norms — 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were both on the high side of his typical range, while his strong 56.7% groundball rate was nearly an exact match for his lifetime average.
Really, Garcia suffered most from an elevated home run susceptibility. He was touched for dingers on over one of five flyballs put in play against him, with opposing hitters launching 1.36 per nine. Whether he can pare back the long balls may be the biggest question remaining. Ultimately, ERA estimators suggest that his down year occurred at least in part due to some poor fortune (4.49 FIP; 3.77 xFIP; 3.93 SIERA.)
In terms of the underlying physical tools, there are indications that Garcia has continued to adapt with a shoulder that will probably never be fully normal. His release point continues to drift (see here and here), with his breaking balls showing marked changes in behavior as well as some inconsistencies. With those changes, Garcia’s typically double-digit swinging strike rate has resided just below that level (9.2%) for each of the last two years. On the other hand, his average fastball velocity is better than ever.
Garcia acknowledged that some of his struggles may be related to his efforts to stay ahead of the shoulder problems that have plagued him for so long. “I got caught up so much in being healthy and working hard to stay healthy that sometimes mechanics took a hit,” he said. But he says he’s glad to have ended the year on an uptick, proclaiming: “I found it now. … I know the kind of pitcher I am.”
All told, it seems hard to imagine that the Cards will punt Garcia onto an open market that is starved for arms. There’s certainly an argument to be made that it would be unwise to sacrifice the depth after a season in which Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzales, and Michael Wacha were among the club’s hurlers who dealt with varying degrees of injury problems.
If anything, a trade would seem the more likely scenario. According to Goold, St. Louis “floated” Garcia’s name over the summer to assess his value. Whether or not there was ever serious consideration of moving him in 2016, that could become an option this offseason. As Goold explains it, promising the $12MM payday to Garcia “would give Mozeliak control of an asset for 2017 and pitching depth that he could use in deals even into spring training.”
Dave Stewart Discusses End Of Tenure With D-Backs
The Diamondbacks ousted Dave Stewart from the GM seat yesterday, bringing his tenure to an end after just two years. Stewart discussed his feelings on the matter with Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who described the scene yesterday as chief baseball officer Tony La Russa informed his long-time friend that he’d no longer be with the organization.
That order, of course, came from above La Russa’s head, with managing partner Ken Kendrick and president/CEO Derrick Hall deciding it was time to move on. La Russa’s own fate remains to be determined, but he won’t control the organization’s baseball operations any longer.
Stewart expressed little in the way of regret, explaining that he believes he ought to have been retained but also that he will land on his feet. After all, the long-time big league hurler has compiled a rather varied resume following his playing times. Most recently, before heading to Arizona, he served as a player agent.
“Quite frankly,” said Stewart, “I’ve got better things to do.” Just what those things will be isn’t clear yet. “I just got to figure out what to do next,” said Stewart, “but really, I’ll be just fine.”
What Stewart won’t be doing is airing grievances against the Arizona organization. While he acknowledges that he was “angry” when he left the Blue Jays organization 15 years ago after being passed over for an open GM seat, Stewart says that he’s “not angry this time.” Instead, he said, it’s “almost a relief.” And though he and Kendrick “were oil and water,” Stewart says that was just a reflection of personality differences; he does not “have anything bad to say about” the D-Backs owner.
As for the state of the roster and farm that he leaves behind, Stewart expressed optimism. “This team will be back,” he said. “They’re not far away at all.” Asserting that he stands by his work at the helm of the baseball ops department, Stewart suggested that it may take some time for the fruits of his labor to become obvious to the rest of the game. “You may not know it for a couple of years,” he said, “but you will.’’
West Notes: Walker, Athletics, Angels, Richards
Mariners righty Taijuan Walker is headed for a medical consultation to determine whether he ought to undergo surgery on his troublesome right foot, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. The 24-year-old has suffered with arch tendinitis, and may go in for a procedure to help address the problem over the offseason. Rest is the alternative, but a decision must be made soon. Walker says that the specialist he spoke with previously told him “it would be anywhere from a three- to four-month recovery to be ready to pitch.” Walker had a roller-coaster campaign — manager Scott Servais says he was “all over the board” with hot and cold stretches — but ultimately ended with a 4.22 ERA over 134 1/3 innings, with 8.0 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. Seattle will hope that Walker can put the foot issue behind him and fully realize his talent in 2017.
Here’s more from out west:
- Among the Athletics‘ many needs, the outfield stands at the top of the list, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Outside of Khris Davis, there’s little in the way of sure things. “No question center fielder is a concern short term and long term,” said president of baseball operations Billy Beane. “Until we discover a long-term option, we may be strategic in how we fill that temporarily.” Slusser notes that the club could end up pursuing a bounceback player, suggesting Carlos Gomez as one possible solution.
- The Angels also ended 2016 buried in the AL West, but the team is still exuding optimism about the season to come, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. “I don’t think we’re that far off,” says manager Mike Scioscia. “I know that we’re all going to work very hard this winter not only to put together a team but get it ready and play well in the spring and have some different conversations this time next year.”
- One key for the Angels, of course, is righty Garrett Richards. Per Fletcher, he is up to 97 mph as he continues to try to battle through UCL issues rather than succumbing to Tommy John surgery. He is slated for two more instructional league appearances before undergoing a final medical exam. If all goes well, the club will pencil him in for next season. “If you talk about having a top-of-the-rotation starter vs. not having a top-of-the-rotation starter, that would be a sizable difference for any club,” Eppler said.
- Regardless, the Angels figure to chase pitching, per Eppler (also via Fletcher). And the Halos have several holes to fill on the position-player side. Still, the GM says he won’t head into the winter just looking to tick through the team’s needs. “I don’t really walk in with a grocery list and say ‘This is what we need,’ because then you end up forcing a shot,” says Eppler. “To use a basketball reference, I don’t want to force the shot. If the shot is there and the circumstances are right, take it.”
Adam Liberatore To Undergo Left Elbow Surgery
Dodgers lefty Adam Liberatore will undergo a debridement procedure tomorrow on his left elbow, the team announced. He is expected to be able to recover in time for a full 2017 season, per the team’s statement.
Liberatore, 29, was a revelation for the Dodgers in the first half of the campaign. He had only ever appeared in the majors previously in 2015 for L.A., but allowed just two earned runs over his first 33 innings on the season.
That pace proved difficult to keep up, especially as injury issues crept in. Liberatore ended up struggling through August and September, and ended the year with a 3.38 ERA ovr 42 2/3 frames, with an excellent 9.9 K/9 versus 3.6 BB/9.
Given his difficulties, Liberatore likely wasn’t slated to appear in the postseason for the Dodgers even before today’s news, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Still, it’s disappointing that he won’t even have a chance to appear if a need arises.
The Dodgers are no strangers to managing pitchers with health issues, so they’ll no doubt value Liberatore as a potential contributor next year. Still, he’ll need to earn his opportunities and prove his health next spring in order to claim a major role in the Los Angeles pen in 2017.
Tony La Russa Won’t Run D-Backs’ Baseball Ops; Future With Org Uncertain
The Diamondbacks continued a massive organizational overhaul today, firing GM Dave Stewart and manager Chip Hale after previously parting ways with VP DeJon Watson. Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa remains with the team at this point, but as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports, he’ll no longer run the team’s baseball operations department.
A new decisionmaker — whether a president of baseball operations, general manager, or both — will take over the reins in molding the team’s roster. At this point, it’s not known when or how the organization will go about filling the void, but president and CEO Derrick Hall says that the new hire will be expected to put greater emphasis on analytics.
Statistical analysis was one of several areas that observers have cited in criticizing the most recent iteration of the D-Backs’ oft-changing front office mix. La Russa was brought on as CBO in hopes that he’d oversee a successful organizational decisionmaking structure, but things haven’t turned out as hoped (as detailed in the post on the firing of Stewart and Hale). In the statistical arena, La Russa has been openly skeptical of the role of analytics, and raised many eyebrows with his hiring of long-time acquaintance — and first-time baseball front office man– Ed Lewis as director of baseball analytics and research.
Arizona’s top brass — Hall, who just inked an eight-year extension, and managing general partner Ken Kendrick — claimed a share of the responsibility for the failings. But they suggested that it was necessary “to turn the page and hit reset and see if we can’t get going in the right direction,” as Hall put it, by starting fresh with a new GM and manager. Per Kendrick, the organization “did not see the trend line at present moving in the right direction.”
Whether La Russa will be a part of the reshaped front office is an open question that was apparently not fully resolved in a lengthy meeting this morning (as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag notes on Twitter). Talks will continue as to what, if any, role may make sense for the Hall of Fame manager, whose foray into the D-Backs’ front office was his first in that capacity.
Jeff Luhnow On Trade Deadline, 2017 Needs & Payroll, Rasmus
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that he recognizes in retrospect that the team would’ve been better served to be more active at the trade deadline, as Angel Verdejo of the Houston Chronicle reports. But that wasn’t entirely apparent at the time, he stressed.
In particular, the losses of starters Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. left a difficult void for Houston down the stretch. But Luhnow says that he “didn’t have that perspective at that point,” referring to the August 1st trade deadline and its run-up. He also noted that, “over the long term, [foregoing additions] does sometimes turn out to be the right decision;” obviously, striking significant deals typically requires the sacrifice of young talent.
The “jury’s out” on whether the ‘Stros should have been more aggressive this summer, says Luhnow, who does note that there are lessons to be learned from the 2016 experience. “I can’t control what happened after the deadline,” he said. “But we’re certainly going to continue to look at every opportunity going forward to give ourselves maybe a little more breathing room so if we do lose a player or we have some underperformance, that we’ve got more of a margin to still have a successful campaign.”
The Houston GM also addressed a variety of other important topics for the organization as it moves forward after missing the postseason.