Quick Hits: Angels Payroll, Hamels, Olivera
Let’s round up a few stray notes from the day:
- After avoiding arbitration with Matt Joyce today, the Angels appear set to enter the spring with a MLB payroll of a shade under $145MM, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. That is about $10MM shy of last year’s starting point, leaving the team with additional luxury tax space (Gonzalez estimates a $174MM payroll for those purposes) that the club will be willing to put towards any needs that become apparent over the course of the season.
- Potentially joining the Halos with interesting summer plans are the Phillies, who are increasingly likely to hold onto ace Cole Hamels, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. reiterated previous statements that he expects Hamels to enter camp with the team, adding that he “expect[s] him to be our Opening Day starter.” The Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, and Cardinals are all said to have been in touch recently on Hamels, but while all are clear of Hamels’s no-trade protection, they also each have good reasons not to be aggressive.
- Hector Olivera‘s representatives have indicated that he will put on his final open showcase this coming Wednesday, Ben Badler of Baseball America tweets. That obviously could be a prelude to an intensification of his market, particularly with Spring Training fast approach. As Badler notes, Olivera is still not a free agent, but is expected to be so declared in short order.
More Reactions To The James Shields Signing
We already took a look at one group of opinions and analysis coming out of the Padres’ signing of James Shields, but the reactions keep coming. Here’s more:
- The Shields camp made a strategic error by shooting too high, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. After initially asking for a contract in the realm of five to six years at $120MM to $125MM, his team did not move down off that ask soon enough in the wake of Jon Lester‘s signing, says Passan. I do think it worth adding that four years and $75MM at a preferred geographical spot is far from a terrible downside scenario — even in the context of the modern free agent world — and that ultimate price could well have justified an aggressive strategy, depending upon Shields’s own particular preferences and risk tolerance.
- Quality, durable arms of the relatively recent past provide at least some insight into how Shields might produce over the term of his deal, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland writes. Among pitchers with age 29-32 seasons similar to those Shields just put up, the outcomes over the next four years ranged from 900+ innings of Greg Maddux to less than 300 frames of Frank Viola. On the whole, the (rather small) group lost one-third of its total innings while putting up less than half the total wins above replacement as against the previous four-year run. Though there is obviously plenty of risk, Lindbergh concludes that, in Shields’s case at least, it seems a reasonable-enough outlook to warrant the commitment.
- San Diego has a legitimate abundance of starting pitching and could use it to make a trade, now or over the summer, opines ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider post). That flexibility is as important as the upgrade that Shields represents, in Law’s view. Of course, bolstering the MLB roster through trade is not the only hypothetical outcome, and Padres GM A.J. Preller may face an even sterner challenge if the team he has compiled fails to compete, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes.
- That the Cubs made a legitimate, late run at Shields is revealing, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers writes. It shows that the team has cash to spend, that Shields likely would have been pursued harder if Chicago hadn’t landed Lester, and that the front office is prepared to act boldly when opportunity arises.
- The Dodgers considered a run at Shields but were never going to approach the price range that Shields ultimately commanded, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Los Angeles “was looking for something more cost effective,” says Olney.
Poll: Best “Big Three” Free Agent Pitcher Signing
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated three starters at the top of this year’s free agent class, as did many other observers: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. There was never much debate as to which of that trio was “best” or would earn the most money, but plenty of ink was spilled on the question of which would deliver the best value.
Those three are now all signed to deals that fall largely within the range of expectations, but which come with considerations impacting their respective value. And, of course, we now know which teams those hurlers will pitch for, allowing consideration of fit.
So, all said, which signing was the wisest? Here are the affirmative arguments for each:
Max Scherzer, Nationals (seven years, $210MM): There is little question that Scherzer was the best player available, and he upgrades an already-excellent Nats’ rotation while also effectively building out the team’s depth at the position — now and in the future. And here’s the key point that has flown under the radar: when the deal’s whopping $210MM price tag is reduced to net present value, it is less than 10% more costly than the Lester contract.
Jon Lester, Cubs (six years, $155MM plus option): Raise your hand if you predicted this signing? Actually, wait, raise your hand if you didn’t. Lester makes a perfect fit for the Cubs in so many ways. He is a workhorse, clubhouse rock who is coming off his best season as a professional. Lester can be expected to front the rotation now and provide a stabilizing force over the life of his deal, which gives the team control over a seventh year without guaranteeing it.
James Shields, Padres (four years, $75MM plus option): Not only did San Diego manage to get Shields for four years, instead of five, it did so while promising far less than the nine-figure deal that many thought possible or even probable. Shields may be the oldest of this group, but he is not promised any money past his age-36 season, same as the rest. He has been outstanding and durable, and there’s an argument to be made that the Friars got the steal of the offseason.
Best "Big Three" Free Agent Pitcher Signing
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Jon Lester 44% (9,324)
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James Shields 36% (7,708)
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Max Scherzer 20% (4,219)
Total votes: 21,251
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Matt Joyce
We’ll keep tabs on the day’s arbitration settlements here:
- The Angels have avoided arbitration with outfielder Matt Joyce, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports on Twitter. He will earn $4.75MM in his final arb-eligible season. The 30-year-old, left-handed-swinging Joyce lands just shy of his $4.9MM projection, via MLBTR/Matt Swartz, and just above the midpoint between the sides’ filing figures ($5.2MM vs. $4.2MM). After dealing for him earlier in the offseason, Los Angeles figures to rely on Joyce quite a bit — especially with Josh Hamilton out to start the season. Joyce has been a steadily above-average offensive producer over recent years, though his power dropped last year and he has not returned to the All-Star level numbers he put up in 2010-11.
Quick Hits: Fielder, De Aza, Maddon, Scherzer
Prince Fielder is one of several players whose hoped-for return to past production levels will go a long way toward determining the near-term fate of the Rangers. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an interesting profile of Fielder, who says he is recharged, newly appreciative, and raring to go for 2015.
Here are a few more notes from around the league:
- The Orioles are headed toward an arbitration hearing with outfielder Alejandro De Aza, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Executive VP Dan Duquette explains that the club informed De Aza it had made him its best offer and would take a “file to go” strategy from that point forward. He expressed surprise that the team’s $5MM proposal was not accepted, noting that there had been discussions of a two-year deal as well. De Aza filed at $5.65MM, which actually falls shy of the $5.9MM that MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected. Baltimore’s arbitration strategy was actually the first topic covered by Kubatko in his recent appearance on the MLBTR Podcast.
- MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said today that the league’s investigation into possible tampering by the Cubs into then-Rays manager Joe Maddon is still in progress, as ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reports. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and Maddon’s agent, Alen Nero, have both insisted that nothing untoward occurred, but it appears that MLB will take its time and cover the matter thoroughly before coming to any conclusions.
- Max Scherzer‘s departure from the Tigers appears to have been all but a formality from the point that he rejected the club’s $140MM offer last spring, as the righty explained to MLB.com’s Jason Beck. Scherzer said that he wasn’t interested in holding contract talks during the season, and that the club was not interested in negotiating when Scherzer’s camp “reached out” over the offseason. Indeed, Scherzer said that both he and Rick Porcello realized some time ago that the club was likely going to undergo a lot of turnover in the coming years, which has indeed been the case.
- As for his choice of the Nationals, Scherzer gave some further details on how the end game went down: “Of the teams that were really down to the end, the Nationals gave me the best opportunity [to win]. So because of that, that’s the recent why I told Scott [Boras] at the end, ‘Let’s just negotiate with the Nationals.'”
Minor Moves: Flande, Vitters, Barfield, Malm, Perez
Let’s round up the day’s minor moves:
- Rockies lefty Yohan Flande has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the club announced. Flande lost his roster spot to make space for the signing of Kyle Kendrick, but could be one of the first men up if a big league rotation spot opens.
- The Rockies have also added outfielder/first baseman Josh Vitters and right fielder Jeremy Barfield on minor league deals, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Still just 25, Vitters came into the league as the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, but struggled mightily in a brief MLB stint and had a rough go last year at Triple-A as he suddenly experienced a huge increase in his strikeout rates. Barfield, the 26-year-old son of longtime big leaguer Jesse, had always been an outfielder but began working as a left-handed reliever last year in the A’s system. He racked up 10.6 K/9 but allowing nearly seven free passes per nine at High-A while also slashing .261/.387/.394 in 173 Double-A plate appearances.
- Another player looking to move to the mound is former first baseman Jeff Malm, who signed a minor league pact with the Angels, according to reports from Eddy (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter link). The left-handed former Rays prospect failed to crack the .700 OPS mark in his last two campaigns and will hope for a new start as a pitcher.
- Lefty Luis Perez is headed to the Blue Jays on a minor league pact, Eddy tweets. Perez missed all of 2014 with injury, but does have 112 big league innings under his belt from the 2011-13 campaigns, all with Toronto. He owns a 4.50 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over his MLB time.
Phillies Could Make Cliff Lee Available This Spring
Lost in the commotion somewhat in Philadelphia is veteran ace Cliff Lee, who made only 13 starts last year while dealing with elbow problems. But he, too, could be a trade candidate — possibly sooner than expected. The Phillies will consider trading Lee during camp if he can prove his health, the team told at least one rival executive, who relayed that information to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
It is not exactly surprising that the club is preparing to listen on Lee, of course. The Phils front office has candidly acknowledged that it is embarking upon a rebuilding effort, and has already moved several veterans.
But Lee’s health questions made the timetable uncertain. It now appears at least plausible that he could come available before the season, which is not only significant in its own right but may have some impact on the trade market for other arms (including, perhaps, his teammate Cole Hamels).
Of course, the major issue with Lee is the fact that his elbow problems coincide with the tail end of a significant contract. Lee is owed $25MM for the coming season and can be controlled for another year through a $27.5MM option that comes with a hefty $12.5MM buyout.
While it is conceivable that a healthy Lee would make that 2016 option look reasonable, it is difficult to imagine a competitor giving value and taking on $27.5MM in obligations at this point. It probably does not help that Lee has lost a tick off his average fastball in each of the last two seasons. There will no doubt be interest if Lee looks his old self this spring, but it figures to be hard for Philly to find an attractive offer unless it waits til the summer.
Apart from his recently-balky left elbow, Lee has been nothing short of outstanding even as he has aged. Lee’s 2014 campaign broke a streak of six straight seasons in which he had gone over 200 innings. Over that stretch, he carried a 2.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9.
It is worth noting that Lee does have a no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to twenty teams per year. Last year, Lee could only be traded without consent to the remaining four NL East clubs and the Indians, Astros, Twins, Padres, and Rays. That seemingly strategic list appears fairly likely to have undergone some changes this time around.
While Lee managed only a 3.65 earned run average last year, he otherwise posted strikeout-to-walk ratios that were completely in line with his past results. Once a .358 BABIP was accounted for, ERA estimators valued his work right around his typical three-earned-per-nine level.
Jose Molina To Miss “Long, Indefinite Period” After Knee Surgery
Free agent backstop Jose Molina says that he expects to be out of action for a “long, indefinite period” with an upcoming knee surgery scheduled, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
Molina, 39, has fifteen years of big league action on his resume. He appeared in 80 games last year with the Rays, slashing a career-low .178/.230/.187. That historically unproductive offensive line was out of character for his career, though Molina carries only a .608 career OPS.
Of course, Molina has long been regarded as a preternaturally good pitch framer. That statistically-supported reputation surely would have landed him another opportunity, but it appears that his (as-yet unknown) injury and procedure will prevent that. Whether the aging veteran will be able to engineer an eventual return remains to be seen.
Rangers Sign Nate Schierholtz To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have signed outfielder Nate Schierholtz to a minor league deal with a spring invite, executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. He will earn a $1.75MM salary if he makes the club, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets.
Entering his age-31 season, Schierholtz is coming off of a rough 2014 in which he slashed .195/.243/.309 over 383 plate appearances with the Cubs and Nationals. He has generally produced at a much better clip, and averaged a .261/.314/.442 line in part-time action over the three previous seasons. A .231 BABIP likely contributed to he severity of the drop-off.
The left-handed hitter has traditionally been far more productive against right-handed pitching. He joins a lengthy list of candidates for a Texas outfield and bench bat role.
Latest On Cuban Market: Gutierrez, Olivera, Ibanez
While much of the focus has been on stud prospect Yoan Moncada, another Cuban infielder — veteran Hector Olivera — is the biggest wild card looming over the traditional free agent market. Another intriguing younger player is available in Andy Ibanez, and the market also saw yet another possible infusion of talent over the weekend, with young righty Vladimir Gutierrez and infielder Dainer Moreira defecting. Here’s the latest…
- Gutierrez is applying for political asylum in Puerto Rico, according to El Nuevo Dia, a Puerto Rican newspaper (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez). If he claims asylum in Puerto Rico and then establishes residence in another country, he’ll go through the usual international signing process. If he establishes residence in Puerto Rico, however, Gutierrez would be eligible for the first-year draft since Puerto Rico is a United States territory.
- Moncada has at least one workout scheduled during the week of February 16th-20th, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports (via Twitter), so Badler doesn’t think the phenom will sign before then.
Earlier Updates
- Olivera petitioned MLB for free agency two weeks ago and has not yet received a determination, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. On the positive side for Olivera, it would appear that the new rules regarding clearance of Cuban players will permit him to sign as soon as he receives the nod from MLB.
- While Olivera waits, he is working out for clubs and trying to build a market, as Sanchez further tweets. Olivera has held session recently for the Padres, Mariners, Giants, Yankees, and Braves. He has open showcases scheduled for this Friday and next Wednesday.
- Indeed, the Mariners had more than the usual contingent on hand to see both Olivera and Ibanez, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. Seattle sent not only GM Jack Zduriencik but also president Kevin Mather to join international director Tim Kissner in the Dominican Republic for the private workout. As Badler notes, that level of front office involvement is unusual, and is all the more odd in this case since the club has Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager installed in the infield.
- Cuban baseball documentary project El Trogon (cinematographer Jonathan Miller, director Sami Kahn) has video from Puerto Rico depicting Gutierrez and Moreira, who left their team, Pinar del Rio, during the Caribbean Series.