Cubs Designate Efren Navarro, Select Chris Gimenez
The Cubs have designated outfielder Efren Navarro for assignment, tweets Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. In his stead, the club has selected the contract of catcher Chris Gimenez. Fellow catcher Victor Caratini has been optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a related move.
The move probably isn’t related to the performance of Caratini (though he’s hardly lighting the world on fire with his .264/.304/.308 batting line) as much as it is to the contract situation of Gimenez. As Muskat notes in a separate tweet, the latter had an opt-out clause in his contract that he could have used if he wasn’t on the big league roster by June 1st. Navarro, then, may simply be a casualty created by the Cubs’ desire to preserve their catching depth.
Navarro’s actually played in parts of six seasons with the Angels, Tigers and Cubs, though he’s amassed just 355 plate appearances and posted a meager 77 wRC+ during that time. That’s obviously not particularly impressive, but even a 0.4 fWAR career to date is probably better than odds would suggest for a 50th round draft pick.
Gimenez, meanwhile, is an interesting add to the MLB roster if only for his relationship with struggling ace Yu Darvish. The two played together for the Rangers during parts of two seasons, and have a close relationship with each other. Perhaps working with Gimenez could go a little ways towards helping Darvish get back on track, though that’s obviously a largely intangible factor.
Indians Designate Oliver Drake, Recall Ben Taylor
Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets that the Indians have designated right-handed reliever Oliver Drake for assignment and recalled fellow righty Ben Taylor from Triple-A to take his roster spot. Drake was charged with six earned runs in last night’s game against the Astros.
It’s the latest turn in the revolving door that’s been the Indians’ bullpen this season as they desperately search for lightning in a bottle to stabilize their relief corps. The Tribe’s bullpen currently ranks dead last in baseball with a 6.23 ERA, and have suffered many a loss at the hands of relievers who simply can’t seem to preserve leads for their stellar starting rotation. Last night’s loss may have been one of the most disheartening yet, as Indians fans watched Corey Kluber shut out Houston over 6 1/3 strong innings only to groan later as a five different relievers combined to allow four earned runs in the eighth inning and seven more in the ninth.
For Drake’s part in that nightmare, he allowed base hits to five Astros and beaned one more. All six of those players crossed the plate, and Drake managed to record just two outs. He’d been generally good for the Indians in three appearances prior to that, striking out four batters in 3 2/3 innings after being acquired from the Orioles. It’s worth noting that in his four appearances as an Indian, he owns a 12.46 ERA but a 2.65 FIP (though the microscopic sample size probably renders those numbers somewhat pointless).
As for Taylor, he’ll be up for his second stint with the Indians, having allowed just a single earned run in 3 1/3 innings so far this season while striking out five of the 13 hitters he faced. Prior to this season, Taylor had spent his entire career in the Red Sox organization. On the whole, he owns a 4.79 ERA and 4.26 FIP for his career across 20 2/3 innings.
Cardinals Activate Tyler Lyons, Carson Kelly; Place Greg Holland On DL
The Cardinals have made several injury-related moves, activating lefty reliever Tyler Lyons and catcher Carson Kelly while simultaneously moving righty reliever Greg Holland to the 10-day DL. The club also optioned catcher Steven Baron to Triple-A Memphis in a related move.
There’s no word yet as to the nature of Holland’s injury, though he’s certainly dealing with some swelling in his ERA and walk rate. On the season, those figures stand at 9.45 and 10.15, respectively. While he’s been unfortunate in the BABIP department (.388), there’s no arguing that Holland’s pitching has been astonishingly poor; the Cardinals are surely disappointed in the early returns on his one-year, $14MM contract. On the bright side, perhaps an extended rehab stint in the minors will allow Holland to get back on track.
The swap of Holland for Lyons, then, can probably be considered somewhat of a boost to the Cards’ bullpen. Though Lyons’ surface results don’t look much better (6.17 ERA), his strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.40) looks much less disastrous than that of his right-handed counterpart. Lyons emerged as a dominant left-hander for St. Louis last season, striking out 11.33 batters per nine innings en route to a 2.83 ERA.
Kelly’s return is welcome news for a Cardinals ballclub that’s been missing both he and feature backstop Yadier Molina all week. Formerly a highly-regarded catching prospect, Kelly hasn’t yet lived up to his billing. He’s hit just .160/.222/.200 across 108 plate appearances in the major leagues. He’ll likely see plenty of playing time as long as Molina remains out, though, so perhaps this is his chance to turn his offensive reputation around.
Pirates Activate Starling Marte, Option Jose Osuna
After reporting earlier today that Starling Marte could be activated from the DL if he felt good upon arrival to PNC Park, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets that Marte has indeed been reinstated, with the Pirates optioning first base/outfield type Jose Osuna to the minors.
The quick DL stint for Marte is obviously best-case scenario for the Pirates, who must have been concerned at first considering the dubious nature of oblique injuries in general. Marte’s kicked off the 2018 season with a bang, hitting .308/.366/.503 with six homers and ten steals, so his return to the lineup is excellent news for Pittsburgh, who’ve been a .500 team in his absence.
The more interesting implication of this transaction is that outfield prospect Austin Meadows survived the roster crunch. Meadows was promoted to the big leagues for the first time ever following Marte’s placement on the disabled list, despite hitting a tepid .294/.336/.397 in Triple-A this season. His performance in the majors, however, has earned him a longer look: Meadows has homered three times and struck out just twice while hitting .448 in his 29 MLB plate appearances.
Injury Notes: Gomez, Sanchez, Marte, Bird, Prado
Rays outfielder Carlos Gomez has been activated from the 10-day disabled list; he’d been sidelined since May 16th with a strained groin. The injury was thought to be minor at the time, and the fact that Gomez missed only the ten-day minimum leaves little room to doubt his health at this time. That doesn’t mean his performance comes without questions, though, as the veteran is slashing just .200/.252/.345 on the season. No corresponding move was required for Tampa Bay, as their roster was two men short following yesterday’s surprising trade with Seattle.
And now a flurry of other injury-related items from around the league…
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests that Anibal Sanchez could be the Braves‘ starter on Tuesday following a successful rehab start on Friday. Mark Bowman of MLB.com takes it a step further by quoting manager Brian Snitker, who reportedly said that Sanchez is indeed penciled in to start Tuesday’s game. Sanchez has a 1.29 ERA in three appearances (two starts) on the season.
- Adam Berry of MLB.com writes that Starling Marte will be activated from the DL by the Pirates today if he reports to the ballpark feeling ready to play. It’d be a remarkably quick return for the 29-year-old outfielder, who has been sidelined with an oblique injury. Injuries of that type have a reputation for lingering and causing players to miss extended time. One has to wonder what Marte’s potential activation would mean for the red-hot Austin Meadows, who’s managed more homers in the big leagues thus far (3) than strikeouts (2).
- The Yankees have reinstated first baseman Greg Bird from the disabled list, optioning infielder Ronald Torreyes to Triple-A in a corresponding move. Marc Carig of The Athletic notes that the move makes plenty of sense considering the versatility of Gleyber Torres and the fact that a removal of Neil Walker from the roster isn’t reversible. Bird entered the season with plenty of hype surrounding him, but has yet to make his 2018 debut thanks to right foot surgery.
- In a move that was widely expected, the Marlins placed Martin Prado (hamstring) on the 10-day DL today, recalling J.T. Riddle from Triple-A to take his place on the roster. It’s the latest in an unfortunate series of injuries for the formerly-durable Prado, who made only 147 trips to the plate last year following eight straight seasons with at least 500 PA.
Quick Hits: Colon, Bibens-Dirkx, Odor, Rangers, Anthopoulos, Bae
Timeless right-hander Bartolo Colon celebrated his 45th birthday this week, so he’ll soon become just the 18th player in major league history to pitch in the majors beyond that benchmark. Colon is also the oldest to hurl a pitch since Jamie Moyer back in 2012. Value metrics are divided on his effectiveness so far this season; Baseball Reference pegs his contributions at 1.6 WAR, while Fangraphs believes his 2018 production to be exactly replacement level. In any case, it would have been difficult at season’s outset to imagine Colon exceeding his current results. A 3.51 ERA and 7.20 K/BB ratio are welcome numbers to a Rangers rotation that sports the sixth-highest combined ERA in major-league baseball.
It’ll be fun to see just how long Colon can keep up this pace. But in the meantime, here are some minor notes from last night…
- In other Rangers news, Jeff Wilson of the Star Telegram examines the job security of a pitcher and a position player in Arlington. Austin Bibens-Dirkx pitched well on the whole in his last start (though he was a victim of some bad fielding behind him), Wilson notes that the club is more likely to give Matt Moore a longer look before ceding his spot in the rotation to Bibens-Dirkx. Meanwhile, Wilson notes that struggling second baseman Rougned Odor has two options remaining. With Jurickson Profar putting together quality at-bats of late, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa producing at a better clip than Odor, there’s a chance the club might consider letting the latter work out his issues in the minors.
- In a subscription-only piece for The Athletic, Bill Shaikin examines the storyline of Alex Anthopoulos leaving the Dodgers organization to run a Braves club that’s currently leading the NL East. While Anthopoulos felt like he had “as good a job as there was in baseball” with the Dodgers, his reshaping of the Braves’ payroll has helped to set them up for success as they near the end of a lengthy rebuild. Trades of Jim Johnson, Matt Kemp and some international bonus pool money shipped to the Angels has set the stage for Atlanta to complement its young core through free agency and perhaps even the midseason trade market.
- Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette provides an update on Pirates prospect Bae Ji-hwan via Twitter. Bae is reportedly on his way back to the United States after cooperating with police in South Korea on suspicion of a domestic violence incident. He’ll be allowed to participate in baseball activities pending the outcome of an investigation into said incident. Bae was one of a few players that the Braves reportedly offered “extra-contractual compensation” recently and were thus barred from signing in the last international signing period.
Injury Notes: Kendrick, Bumgarner, Mauer, Moore, Souza, Cuthbert
Things got even worse for the Nationals today; Howie Kendrick appeared to sustain a serious injury while chasing down a Max Muncy fly ball. Kendrick was carted off the field, and was seen pointing to his ankle area. Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports that he’s off to get an MRI. The Nationals are already dealing with injuries to a number of other key players, including Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters and Brian Goodwin, and can ill afford to lose another player from their outfield for an extended period of time. They’ll likely be anxious as they await further news on Kendrick.
More injury news from around MLB today…
- Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner considers his fractured left hand to be “95% or more” healed, according to a tweet from MLB.com’s Chris Haft. He’s on track to throw live batting practice on Tuesday and begin a rehab assignment on Saturday. Meanwhile, Haft says, Johnny Cueto will head to the club’s rehab facility in Arizona. The Giants will hope for the best-case scenarios as far as the timetables of these two players; their depleted rotation is a chief factor in the club’s sub-.500 record on the season.
- Joe Mauer is headed to the Twins’ DL with concussion symptoms once again, according to LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribute. He reportedly did well in regards to concussion tests last night, but is apparently experiencing some sensitivity to light along with some balance issues. Mauer, who has dealt with concussion issues in years past, is walking at a 16.8% clip so far this season en route to a .404 OBP. According to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey (via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger), the club is “not saying at this time that Joe has a concussion.”
- The Rangers have placed lefty Matt Moore on the 10-day disabled list with what the club is calling right knee soreness. The move will make room for fellow righty Ariel Jurado, who will make the jump from Double-A to debut in the majors tonight. Jurado has a 2.57 ERA in 35 minor league innings this year, but with a 5.31 FIP that strongly disagrees with those results. He posted a 4.59 ERA at Double-A last season, with 5.45 K/9.
- Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza will avoid the DL for the time being, says Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. A key offseason acquisition by the Dbacks, Souza has already spent the bulk of the season on the DL after suffering a pectoral strain upon diving for a ball in the outfield. Fortunately, it seems as though some minor pec soreness will not require a second DL stint for the time being.
- The Royals have placed Cheslor Cuthbert on the 10-day DL with a lower back strain, recalling fellow infielder Ramon Torres from Triple-A Omaha in a corresponding move. Cuthbert is a career .252/.308/.383 hitter, and is performing especially poorly this season, as evidenced by his -0.5 fWAR for 2018. However, Torres seems unlikely to provide any significant upgrade; he’s hitting just .229/.280/.307 at the Triple-A level so far this season.
Reliable Relievers Are More Valuable Than Ever
If you felt like relievers were getting special attention this offseason, you weren’t imagining things. In a 2017-2018 winter that featured a free agent freeze the likes of which we haven’t experienced in recent memory, relief pitchers were the one position group that hardly seemed to suffer. They flew off the board remarkably early in comparison to the rest of the free agent crop this season; 17 of the 30 seven-figure major league free agent signings to occur on or before December 15th, 2017 (an admittedly arbitrary date) were relief pitchers.
I’ll follow that statistic up with the obvious disclaimer that one offseason doesn’t necessarily set a trend. But the buyer’s frenzy that took place in regards to relief pitchers this past offseason is in line with a startling trend in today’s baseball climate: reliable relievers are a more valuable commodity today than they’ve ever been before.
Notice the qualifier reliable. I’m not suggesting that the Warwick Saupolds and Alec Ashers of the world are suddenly any more valuable than they would have been five years ago. But the upper echelon of relievers, the ones who can be relied upon to come in the game and consistently get outs in the late innings over the course of a full season, the value of those relievers relative to other positions has increased from what it was in years past.
Of course, baseball is a game of context, and the word reliable doesn’t mean anything without tangible statistics assigned to it. Fortunately, the echelon of relief pitcher I’m talking about seems to have clearly defined itself across the past several seasons.
But before I get too much into those statistics, it’s important to set the context of this analysis by pointing out a clear trend in baseball: starters are pitching fewer innings than ever, leaving relievers to shoulder the remainder of the workload. Below is the number of total innings thrown by the starting pitchers in MLB games in the past three seasons…
2014: 28,992
2015: 28,223 1/3
2016: 27,412 2/3
2017: 26,787 1/3
With the starters getting quicker hooks, MLB relievers have seen their combined workload increase by 735 innings per season since 2014. Because of this, MLB bullpens were forced to handle an average of 73.49 more innings per team in 2017 than they had to in 2014. It looks like we’ll be seeing yet another decrease in total innings pitched by the starters this season; they’re on pace to throw about 26,542 total innings in 2018. With the way things tend to work in September, I’d be willing to bet that innings total will end up being even lower when the season comes to a close.
As one might expect, the number of qualified relievers last season reached its zenith in the modern era (155). But the number of relievers to throw at least 60 innings has remained within the same range across the past decade or so. There were 84 such pitchers in 2017, 85 in 2016, 79 in 2015, 82 in 2014, 93 in 2013 and 88 in 2012. So while we’re seeing bullpens shoulder larger workloads on the whole, we aren’t seeing an increase in the number of workhorse relievers who are able to remain healthy or hold down a job for the bulk of the season.
If an innings threshold doesn’t do it for you, perhaps an overall measure of effectiveness will. WPA, or Win Probability Added, is a measure of how much value a player has provided to a team based on performance in each plate appearance (or batter faced, in this case) in relation to the leverage of those situations. Though there’s been a significant uptick in the number of relief pitchers who accrued a WPA of at least 1 in each of the past several seasons, the number of relief pitchers who’ve managed a WPA of about 2 has remained largely the same. Here’s the breakdown by year (past five years) of pitchers who’ve met that 2.0 WPA mark…
2013: 25
2014: 23
2015: 24
2016: 23
2017: 23
It’s hardly a coincidence that almost every single one of the relievers to accrue 2.0+ WPA in a given season also threw at least 60 innings in that season. So while “reliable reliever” is a somewhat nebulous label, there are clear indications that we’re seeing an increase in the number of reliable relievers needed to make a complete ballclub, but not an increase in the number of reliable relievers in MLB on the whole.
While the above milestones are admittedly somewhat arbitrary, the fact that they’re holding so steady across a period of five years is probably not. The fact that there’s a need for more talented bullpen arms doesn’t necessarily mean that more of them will just suddenly appear. That would likely require a dramatic change in how teams draft and develop players, and it seems unlikely teams would place any additional emphasis on developing pitchers as relievers when the main strategy seems to revolve around turning them into successful starters, and shifting them to the bullpen if that doesn’t work out.
So to recap, bullpens in 2017 were forced to take on an average of 73.49 more innings than they were in 2014, but they aren’t developing any additional high-end arms to compensate for that. It makes sense, then, to think that almost all of those extra innings are likely going to replacement-level or near-replacement level relievers. That works out to nearly an extra out and a half per team game put in the hands of a relief pitcher who may be an up-and-down- or waiver-claim-type arm. Obviously it doesn’t work exactly like that, but the core logic checks out.
Perhaps that’s why a higher percentage of the free agent dollars have been going to relievers on the market lately. According to data pulled from Spotrac.com, total reliever earnings accounted for an average of 28.98% of free agent dollars spent across the past two offseasons. That’s a remarkable upgrade over the four offseasons prior; relievers averaged a 19.54% share of the total free agent spending, topping out at a 21.51% pie slice in 2013. Last year saw 15 different free-agent relievers earn eight-figure guarantees and 21 earn multi-year contracts, both stunningly high numbers in comparison with years past.
It’s not just the free agents, though. Teams have paid handsomely on the trade market for elite bullpen arms in recent years. The Indians gave up a hefty package for Andrew Miller at the 2016 trade deadline that included top prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. The second Aroldis Chapman trade brought back a top 10 prospect in Gleyber Torres, and the Cubs parted with the highly-regarded Jorge Soler in order to get just one season of Wade Davis. Extensions for Brad Hand, Kenley Jansen and Felipe Vazquez in the past two offseasons guaranteed significant numbers of years and dollars, too. While no one of these transactions is necessarily an abnormality in and of itself, the general pattern of these reliever valuations and more beyond them are in line with the trend of top-flight bullpen arms being valued more in today’s game than in years past.
At its core, this seems a simple lesson in the laws of supply and demand. With a greater need for relievers that can be depended upon for consistency and high innings totals, contending teams are facing a sense of urgency in pursuing a crop of those relievers that’s remained the same size. Logically, said urgency would figure to drive up the market value of those players in comparison with other positions.
As is always the case in the game of baseball, things could change quickly. For instance, with superstar position players like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson set to hit the market next year, it’s incredibly unlikely that reliever contracts will account for over a quarter of free agent spending, even with Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen set to join the pool. Still, I’m willing to bet that the latter three end up with hefty paydays, with a handful of others surpassing expectations as well.
Mets Designate Jose Lobaton, Recall Tomas Nido
The Mets have designated catcher Jose Lobaton for assignment, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports via Twitter, noting that the backstop wasn’t playing much with Devin Mesoraco now in the fold. In a related move, they’ve recalled Tomas Nido to serve as Mesoraco’s backup for the time being. In an unrelated move, the club also optioned lefty Buddy Baumann and recalled right-hander Chris Flexen to take his roster spot.
The 33-year-old Lobaton has played in parts of nine major league seasons for the Padres, Rays, Nationals and Mets, but has never provided much in the way of value. His 2018 slash line stands at a meager .152/.250/.239 through 52 plate appearances with the Amazins, and it certainly makes sense that the club would give the lion’s share of the work behind the plate to Mesoraco considering his former offensive prowess. Mesoraco was recently acquired from the Reds in exchange for Matt Harvey, in what was clearly a swap of struggling veteran change-of-scenery candidates.
Despite Lobaton’s uninspiring resume, it’s difficult to imagine he’ll go unclaimed given the state of the catcher position around MLB. The Nationals and Twins are in desperate need of catching depth after losing Matt Wieters and Jason Castro (respectively) to significant injuries. The veteran Lobaton could easily be a target for either team, though it seems likely that both clubs would wait for their chance to claim him rather than attempt to give anything up in a trade.
Nido, 24, has actually been worse than Lobaton so far this season. With a microscopic .135/.179/.162 slash line across 39 plate appearances to go with a 38.5% strikeout rate, Nido is simply the new unexciting backup option to Mesoraco while the team waits for Kevin Plawecki to return from a broken hand, hopefully by the end of the month.
East Notes: Yankees, Eickhoff, Smith, Garcia
Aaron Boone recently offered some words of encouragement regarding the imminent return of first baseman Greg Bird to the lineup (h/t Marc Carig of The Athletic). But while Bird’s activation appears to be “around the corner”, news surrounding fellow Yankees hitter Jacoby Ellsbury is not as promising. Ellsbury is reportedly dealing with a minor back injury and as such is not participating in baseball activities at this time. The outfielder made just 406 plate appearances last season and has yet to make his 2018 debut. Unfortunately, Ellsbury’s absence is not the end of the bad news for the Yankees this week, as it turns out hard-hitting outfield prospect Estevan Florial will require surgery on a broken hamate bone (according to a tweet from George A. King III of the New York Post). The injury will keep him sidelined until at least August. Florial was off to somewhat of a slow start at the High-A level, posting a .246/.353/.343 slash line across 156 plate appearances.
More out of the East…
- Phillies righty Jerad Eickhoff is set to begin a rehab assignment, according to Matt Breen of the Philly Enquirer. He’ll kick it off at Triple-A LeHigh Valley. Eickhoff has been sidelined since spring training due to a lat strain, and at this time it’s not clear how he’d fit into a suddenly crowded Phillies rotation that includes Aaron Nola, Nick Pivetta, Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin.
- The Red Sox haven’t gotten any particularly good news about Carson Smith in recent days. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, manager Alex Cora says the club can’t determine at this time whether or not the righty will pitch again this season. Smith was off to a serviceable start this season, posting a 3.77 ERA and 11.30 K/9 in his first 14 1/3 innings before going down with a shoulder subluxation.
- The Blue Jays are describing left-hander Jaime Garcia‘s injury as “left shoulder inflammation”. He’s been placed on the DL retroactive to May 16th. The Jays brought Garcia into the fold this past offseason on a one-year deal worth a guarantee of $10MM, but he’s disappointed thus far with a 6.28 ERA across his first 38 2/3 innings. In a related move, the club has recalled righty Deck McGuire from Triple-A Buffalo.