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Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill

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At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield.  O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field.  This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.

Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond.  (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.)  Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.

O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+.  The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries.  A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.

Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate.  Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL?  A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits.  His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.

The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA.  While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.

It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors.  Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services.  It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.

The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night.  That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.

A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.  Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason.  From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation.  The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.

Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke.  It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder.  After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.

O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season.  He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction.  Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.

Twins Sign Jay Jackson

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Feb. 7: Jackson will be guaranteed $1.5MM on the deal, MLBTR has learned. That’s paid out in the form of a $1.3MM salary and a $200K buyout on a $3MM club option for the 2025 season. The value of that club option and the buyout can be increased to $4MM and $350K, respectively, based on the number of games Jackson pitches.

Feb. 4: The Twins have signed veteran right-hander Jay Jackson to a big league contract, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link).  The deal will become official when Jackson passes a physical.  Jackson is represented by agent Nello Gamberdino.

Jackson posted a 2.12 ERA over 29 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays last season.  His 3.89 SIERA was less flattering due to a .187 BABIP and 89.3% strand rate, yet Jackson’s strikeout (23.3%) and walk (7.8%) rates were quite solid.  This performance also came under trying circumstances for the 36-year-old, as Jackson spent much of the season traveling back and forth from Utah during breaks in the schedule to spend time with his fiancee and newborn son, who was born 15 weeks premature.

In joining the Twins, Jackson has now been a member of 10 different MLB organizations and two Nippon Professional Baseball organizations during his 16 pro seasons.  In addition to his four seasons pitching in Japan, he has seen action at the Major League level with five of his clubs, starting with the Padres in 2015.  Jackson has amassed only two years and 28 days of proper MLB service time given all of the stops and starts in his career, yet his contract with Toronto last winter included a clause that allowed him to test the market again without still being under arbitration control.

Despite his journeyman resume, Jackson’s actual results have been pretty respectable, with a 3.50 ERA and 29.5% K% over 87 1/3 career innings in the Show, albeit with an 11% walk rate.  He brings some experience and perhaps under-the-radar upside to a Minnesota bullpen that has started to receive some attention over the last week, via the trade that sent Jorge Polanco to the Mariners.

Justin Topa looks to be a candidate for higher-leverage innings, while Anthony DeSclafani is a long relief option if he isn’t needed in the rotation.  Jackson figures to work closer to the back end of the pen and might be something of a proverbial 25th or 26th man on the roster, even though his guaranteed contract gives him some advantage over other pitchers who might have minor league options.

Quick Hits: Twins, Pohlad, Turner, Suter, Rockies, Marlins

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.

Tony Kemp Getting Interest From Five Teams

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The Blue Jays, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees have all shown interest in veteran second baseman/left fielder Tony Kemp, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports.  These are the first teams linked to Kemp this offseason, as the 32-year-old is a free agent for the first time in his career.

One of the few experienced players on a young and rebuilding A’s team, Kemp has spent the last four years in Oakland, bridging the gap between the last contending Athletics club and its current state of extreme teardown.  Most of his playing time has some against right-handed pitching (though Kemp’s career splits are pretty even against both righties and lefties), and Zack Gelof’s emergence at second base meant that Kemp was mostly a left fielder in the back half of the 2023 season.

Kemp’s own lack of production didn’t help his cause for more playing time, as he hit only .209/.303/.304 over 419 plate appearances last year.  Kemp posted strong numbers in a part-time capacity with the A’s in 2021 and the Astros in 2018, though he has generally been a below-average hitter during his career, with a 94 wRC+.

It seems likely that any of Kemp’s suitors would be viewing him as a bench piece or platoon option at best, plus the respected Kemp would be a boost in any clubhouse.  While he played some center field early in his career and he has a handful of games as a right fielder and shortstop, it seems like Kemp is pretty set as a two-position player, and the public defensive metrics have been more positive about his work as a left fielder than at second base.

Of the five teams mentioned by Murray, the Red Sox might be the cleanest fit for Kemp given that Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom (their projected left field/second base starters) are both right-handed hitters.  Utilityman Rob Refsnyder is right-handed and infield backup Enmanuel Valdez is short on big league experience, perhaps creating an opening for Kemp on the roster.  Red Sox manager Alex Cora is also a familiar face, as Cora was on Houston’s coaching staff during Kemp’s time with the Astros.

The Pirates have a pretty crowded second-base competition heading into the season, with Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and others all battling for time at the keystone.  While the Bucs would prefer to see one of their youngsters grab the job, adding a seasoned player like Kemp could help add some depth in the event that nobody really breaks out.  Kemp’s reputation as a leader could also be particularly useful for a young Pirates team, particularly after several players spoke of how the addition of such veteran voices as Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana helped the club last year.

New York, Cincinnati, and especially Toronto could all use some more left-handed balance in their lineups, though Kemp isn’t as clear-cut of a fit given how all three of these teams are already pretty deep in second base and left field options.  Kemp’s experience could again be a factor here as something more of a proven commodity, in case any of the Reds’ prized young infielders need some more minor league seasoning or if the Yankees want some depth in case Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza don’t develop at the plate.

Al McBean Passes Away

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Former big league veteran Al McBean passed away earlier this week at age 85.  McBean holds a distinction as the first pitcher (and one of just 15 players ever) from the Virgin Islands to play in Major League Baseball, making some history when made his debut in 1961.

Most of McBean’s career was spent with the Pirates, including his first eight seasons and then a brief return in 1970 for what ended up being his final seven MLB games.  (In between those two stints in Pittsburgh, McBean pitched for the Padres and Dodgers.)  Pitching mostly as a reliever in his rookie season and then mostly as a starter in 1962, McBean then primarily worked out of the bullpen for most of his career, apart from a return to the Pirates rotation late in the 1967 season and for much of 1968.

McBean posted a 3.13 ERA and 63 saves over 409 games and 1072 1/3 career innings.  The 63 saves are a retroactive statistic given how saves weren’t officially recognized since 1969, and the idea of a true closer was still something of a rarity in the 1960’s.  However, the Pirates enjoyed great success with longtime relief ace Roy Face anchoring the bullpen, and McBean teamed with Face as a one-two punch for high leverage work.  McBean was named Reliever Of The Year by the Sporting News in 1964 for an outstanding season of 1.91 ERA ball and 21 saves over 89 2/3 innings and 58 appearances.

We at MLB Trade Rumors give our condolences to McBean’s family and friends.

Orioles Notes: Burnes, Cease, Hicks

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The Orioles completed one of the offseason’s biggest trades in landing Corbin Burnes from the Brewers earlier this week, and it was a move that GM Mike Elias said the organization had been “talking about…since when the World Series ended.” It was heavily expected that the O’s would be looking for significant rotation help during the winter, and Elias shared some details on the search when speaking with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) on a conference call in the aftermath of the trade.

“Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed.  We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason,” Elias said.  “Obviously, there were other starting pitchers who we pursued, but it’s harder to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list.  It’s a tremendous impact.”

Milwaukee’s side of the deal involved two big league-ready young players (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) with top-100 prospect pedigrees, as well as the Orioles’ Competitive Balance Round draft pick (currently 34th overall in the 2024 draft order).  It was a noteworthy amount to give up even for a team as rich in minor league depth as the O’s, but Elias felt it was worth the plunge.

“We’re giving up a lot of long-term talent and also a couple of players that were going to contribute to the 2024 Orioles,” Elias said.  “So I mean, this is a risky move, but it lined up for both sides.  We weren’t going to force it necessarily, but our wish list was a rotation upgrade and I certainly think that the Cy Young winner and with his body of work qualifies as that. We couldn’t have found a better upgrade and now we just have to go play the games.”

While the Orioles’ offer was enough to sway the Brewers, it apparently wasn’t enough to get the White Sox to move Dylan Cease, another pitcher known to be on Baltimore’s list of potential targets.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the O’s “offered basically the same package” to White Sox, as well as an unknown additional player.  The larger size of the offer probably reflects the fact that Cease is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season while Burnes is only controlled through 2024, yet it still wasn’t enough to meet Chicago’s asking price for Cease’s services.

Past reports have suggested that the Sox have a particular interest in Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, among many of Baltimore’s top prospects.  It can be assumed that none of these blue-chippers weren’t the mystery fourth part of the Orioles’ offer to Chicago, so speculatively, it could be that the White Sox asked for one of the trio as the top position-player piece instead of Ortiz.  Considering that the Sox have reportedly been looking for additional pitching in other Cease-related trade talks with the Mariners and Reds, it could also be that the White Sox wanted a better pitcher included than Hall, or perhaps a pitcher as the fourth element if the Orioles had offered a position player.

These talks are again indicative of the very large price tag that the White Sox are demanding for Cease, which isn’t really surprising given how he is their biggest trade asset apart from Luis Robert.  It also understandable why the Orioles ultimately pivoted from these talks with Chicago to closing the deal on Burnes, as Burnes provides a higher ceiling as a more consistent ace-level pitcher even if he comes with one less year of control than Cease.

Obviously some of this discussion is just conjecture since we don’t know exactly what the Orioles put on the table for Cease, yet it also speaks to the interesting juggling act Elias has been facing in determining how to put the best “final touch” on the AL East-winning roster.  It can be assumed that pretty much every rival team has been asking about the top tier of names in Baltimore’s farm system in any trade talks, so Elias technically has the minor league depth to complete just about any deal, he naturally isn’t going to deplete that depth for just any pitcher.

Speaking of Kjerstad and Cowser, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either youngster play big roles in whatever success awaits the 2024 Orioles, though they’re part of a crowded outfield, first base, and DH picture that also includes Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and even more up-and-coming prospects in Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers, among others.  Even with all these options on hand, Nightengale reports that the O’s still had interest in bringing back Aaron Hicks before the veteran outfielder signed with the Angels earlier this week.

After an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees, Hicks revived his career after joining the Orioles last season, hitting .275/.381/.425 over 236 PA and acting as a veteran leader within the young clubhouse.  Since the Yankees are still covering Hicks’ previous contract through the 2025 season, the outfielder was available on only a minimum MLB salary to any team this winter, giving him presumably a pretty wide range of suitors.

Though the Orioles are in a better position to contend than the Angels in 2024, it could be that Hicks simply felt he wouldn’t get as much playing time in Baltimore than he would in Los Angeles.  Though the Angels have a fair amount of outfield options themselves, Mike Trout’s injury history and the unproven big league track records of Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell leave more room for Hicks to become a lineup regular.

Rangers Sign DJ Peters To Minors Deal

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The Rangers signed DJ Peters to a minor league contract, as initially reported by pitching consultant and former big leaguer Dave Coggin (X link).  After beginning his pro career as an outfielder, Peters is now exploring a second chapter as a pitcher, which began when he tossed 21 2/3 innings for the Tigers’ Florida Complex League team last season.

Peters appeared in 70 games with the Dodgers and Rangers in 2021, which marks his only previous MLB experience.  He hit .197/.242/.422 with 13 home runs and 82 strikeouts over his 240 plate appearance.  The lack of contact has been the story for much of Peters’ career, as while his power potential drew him some notice during his time in the L.A. farm system, rival pitchers were increasingly able to find holes in his swing.  The canceled 2020 minor league season also seemed to halt Peters’ momentum, as his numbers in the minors drastically tailed off after that lost year.

Peters’ 2022 season was mostly spent in South Korea with the KBO League’s Lotte Giants, though he caught on with the Nationals late in the year on a minor league deal, and then spent the 2023 campaign in Detroit’s organization on another minors contract.  Peters didn’t see any game action apart from his 17 appearances as a pitcher in the FCL, and he posted a 6.23 ERA over his 21 2/3 frames, and had more walks (27) than strikeouts (24).

Clearly the transition to pitching is still a work in progress, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Peters’ deal doesn’t include an invitation to the Rangers’ big league spring camp.  Peters will get an opportunity to work with some familiar faces in the organization as he continues to develop his craft on the mound, and figure out how to harness his stuff.  As noted by Coggin elsewhere on his X feed, Peters’ fastball sits at 95mph and he has a slider with a lot of break.

Dodgers’ Nick Frasso Undergoes Labrum Surgery, Could Miss Entire 2024 Season

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Dodgers right-handed pitching prospect Nick Frasso underwent surgery in November to fix a torn labrum, Frasso told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Southern California News Group and J.P. Hoornstra of the L.A. Sports Report).  GM Brandon Gomes described the labrum tear as relatively minor enough that there was some question about whether or not surgery would even be necessary, but now Frasso faces a recovery timeline of 8-12 months after undergoing the procedure.

A fourth-round pick for the Blue Jays in the 2020 draft, Frasso came to Los Angeles as part of the four-player trade that sent Mitch White to Toronto in August 2022.  Frasso’s minor league career has been limited to 152 innings due to an internal brace procedure that kept him out for 11 months spanning the 2021-22 seasons, yet the results have been impressive when Frasso has been able to get on the mound.  The righty has a 2.96 ERA and 30.22% strikeout rate during his minor league career, which includes 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2023.

Frasso has been cited on multiple top prospect lists heading into 2024, with MLB Pipeline (80th), ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (86th), and Baseball America (97th) all putting the righty within their top 100s.  A hard thrower with a 70-grade fastball that easily sits in the mid-90s, Frasso also has a plus slider and changeup, so he would seem to have the stuff to make it as a starting pitcher if he can stay healthy.

For now, unfortunately, Frasso will now face the second long injury rehab of his young career, delaying his path to a probable Major League debut at some point in 2024.  The Dodgers added Frasso to their 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and Hoornstra notes that L.A. made that roster move only after Frasso had undergone his surgery, underscoring the organization’s confidence in the 25-year-old’s potential.

Dodgers Sign Dinelson Lamet To Minors Contract

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The Dodgers have signed right-hander Dinelson Lamet to a minor league deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via X).  The 31-year-old Lamet also receives an invitation to the Dodgers’ big league spring camp.

Lamet has spent almost his entire career in the NL West, apart from a couple of months (and a single MLB game) in the Red Sox organization last season, and an even briefer four-day stint with the Brewers without any appearances at any level in 2022, as Milwaukee quickly designated Lamet for assignment after acquiring him as part of the Josh Hader trade.

It has been an unfortunately quick drop from Cy Young Award contender to borderline journeyman status for Lamet, who has been plagued by injuries since his seeming breakout year with the Padres in 2020.  Since Opening Day 2021, however, Lamet has amassed only 107 total innings in the big leagues, while posting an ungainly 6.88 ERA.  Lamet pitched decently well for the Rockies during the remainder of the 2022 season after Colorado claimed him off waivers from Milwaukee, but that limited success didn’t at all carry over to this past season, as Lamet had an 11.71 ERA over his 16 appearances with the Rockies and one game with the Red Sox.

As much as Lamet has struggled over the last few years, Padres and Rockies fans are undoubtedly fearful that a career revival could take place in Los Angeles, given how the Dodgers have scored on a number of reclamation projects in recent years.  There’s no risk for the Dodgers in seeing what Lamet can do during Spring Training, and whether or not he can stay healthy and recapture any of his early-career form.

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