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The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

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The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Orioles To Recall Grayson Rodriguez

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Dan Connolly of sportsnaut.net, today that right-handed flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez is slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Dodgers.

A consensus top ten prospect in the sport entering the 2023 campaign, Rodriguez first received the call to the big leagues early this season but struggled badly across ten starts, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.93 FIP in 45 1/3 innings of work. That performance saw him optioned to the minors at the end of May. In seven starts since returning to Triple-A, Rodriguez has dominated to the tune of a 1.69 ERA with a fantastic 36.5% strikeout rate in 37 1/3 innings of work. That level of dominance indicates that Rodriguez has little else to gain from additional reps in the minors, making today’s news that Rodriguez will return to the big league rotation a natural next step.

If Rodriguez is able to live up to the promise of his Triple-A results and prospect pedigree at the major league level, it would be nothing short of transformative for the Orioles’ rotation. While strong performances in the lineup and bullpen have propelled the club to an excellent 56-35 record so far this season, a mediocre rotation has held the club back in their pursuit of the division-leading Rays for the AL East crown. Orioles starts rank just 18th in the majors in ERA and bottom five in the AL in terms of fWAR this season, with the likes of Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Gibson offering performances closer to serviceable than dominant.

By calling up Rodriguez two weeks before the trade deadline on August 1, the Orioles will be able to see the 23-year-old hurler make multiple starts before trade season comes to an end. That’ll give the club valuable information about how much he can be relied on to make an impact for the club as Baltimore eyes a return to postseason play for the first time since 2016. The Orioles have long been expected to add to their rotation ahead of the coming trade deadline, but a dominant showing from the youngster could give the club’s front office additional confidence in pursuing a top-of-the-market option such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery to pair with Rodriguez at the front of the club’s rotation.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, but a corresponding move will nonetheless be required prior to tomorrow’s game in order to make room for the right-hander on the active roster. Connolly notes that left-hander Cole Irvin will move to the bullpen going forward to make room for Rodriguez in the club’s rotation. After being acquired from the A’s in an offseason trade, Irvin had a disastrous start to his Orioles career with a 10.66 ERA across his first three starts of the season. That led the club to demote him in early April, though in 25 innings of work in the big leagues since then he’s posted a far more palatable 2.88 ERA and 4.04 FIP. He figures to offer the Orioles a solid multi-inning option out of the bullpen going forward.

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Orioles Option Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles announced this morning that the club had optioned right-hander Grayson Rodriguez to Triple-A and recalled left-hander Keegan Akin.

The move brings to an end Rodriguez’s first taste of big league action in his career. The club’s first-round pick in 2018 and a consensus top-10 prospect entering the season, Rodriguez has struggled badly to this point in the majors. The hard-throwing righty sports a ugly 7.35 ERA, 41% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and a 5.94 FIP in ten starts this season. While a 26.5% strikeout rate is excellent, Rodriguez’s 10% walk rate is well below league average. Most concerning of all, however, is the frequency with which Rodriguez has given up hard contact. The youngster’s average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel% are all in the tenth percentile or worse among qualified players this season.

Rodriguez’s struggles this season have been particularly pronounced since the calendar flipped to May. In five starts this month, Rodriguez has allowed 27 runs (26 earned) with nearly as many combined walks (10) and home runs (11) as strikeouts (22) while pitching into the sixth inning just once and failing to finish the fourth inning three times. All that adds up to a brutal 11.14 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 9.43 FIP in 21 innings of work.

Given Rodriguez’s deep struggles, it’s impossible to know when his next big league opportunity will be. That said, Rodriguez obviously has incredible talent, and is far from the only starter struggling for the Orioles this season. Offseason acquisition Cole Irvin is currently in Triple-A himself after posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work, while Tyler Wells sports a FIP north of 5.00 despite his solid 3.47 ERA. Dean Kremer (94 ERA+) and Kyle Bradish (100 ERA+) have both been roughly league average to this point in the season, leaving offseason signing Kyle Gibson as the club’s only properly above average starter, with a 3.82 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 66 innings of work.

Replacing Rodriguez on the active roster is Akin, who turned in a quality season as a reliever last year, with a 3.20 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 81 2/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old lefty struggled somewhat with a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, but a 3.76 FIP indicates his underlying performance may have been better than the results would indicate. In seven innings of work at the Triple-A level, Akin has dominated to a 1.29 ERA with thirteen strikeouts.

Orioles Notes: Urias, Givens, Rodriguez

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The Orioles will be without infielder Ramon Urias for another 2-3 weeks, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN). Urias was placed on the IL during the week with a hamstring strain, and it appears he’ll be out a little longer than the minimum stint.

Urias was enjoying a productive start to the season, compiling a .278/.375/.381 line with a single home run over 112 plate appearances. He’s spent the majority of his time manning third this season, and defensive metrics haven’t loved his work there, with Outs Above Average marking him at -5 and Defensive Runs Saved at -3. It’s been a better story at second, with Urias worth 3 DRS at that spot.

One player the Orioles should be able to call on soon is Mychal Givens, with Hyde saying (via Jake Rill of MLB.com) that he’s “pretty close” to a return. Givens has made five relief appearances on a rehab stint in Double-A, and there’s a chance he makes one more appearance in the minor league before being activated.

Givens returned to Baltimore on a one-year, $5MM deal in the winter, but exited a spring game with a knee injury and is yet to make his season debut. He last appeared for the Orioles in 2020 when he was a quality late-inning relief option. The numbers have dropped off a bit since, but he still turned in a solid season last year between time with the Cubs and Mets, working to a 3.38 ERA over 59 1/3 innings.

The backend of the Orioles bullpen has been a strength this season, with Felix Bautista, Yennier Cano and Bryan Baker all sporting ERAs south of 2. The hope will certainly be that Givens can provide important relief innings in the future, but the strength of that trio allows them a bit of flexibility to ease the veteran back into the bullpen as he gets up to speed.

Taking a look at the rotation, and Hyde adds (via Kubatko) that the team hasn’t put a hard cap on top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez’ innings this season. The 23-year-old has made seven big league starts so far, working to a 5.08 ERA. A lot of the damage done there was in his first three outings, and Rodriguez has been sporting a far healthier 3.72 ERA over his past four starts, which includes getting rocked for six earned runs in Kansas City, so he does appear to be settling in nicely at the highest level.

In any case, while there’s no hard innings limit, the Orioles would surely be keeping an eye on things. Rodriguez pitched 75 2/3 innings last year, and 103 innings in 2021 (his career high). He’s at 33 1/3 innings so far this season, but it makes sense that the Orioles might start get a little more cautious as he approaches his career highs. It’s a tricky situation for the Orioles to navigate with the team 25-13 and in the thick of a competitive AL East division race, particularly with Rodriguez pitching nicely in his last handful of starts, so it’ll be interesting to see how far the Orioles are willing to push Rodriguez as the season rolls on.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Rays, Angels, Prospect Promotions

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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast has relaunched!  Simon Hampton is now your host, and we’re very excited to bring the new show to you every week.

Episode 2 is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple.  You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Steve Adams to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • A look at the Rays hot start to the season, and why they’re impressing (1:03)
  • As Grayson Rodriguez debuts for the Orioles, Taj Bradley is called up to the Rays, and a raft of other highly touted young players make their mark on the season, we take a look at whether the new top prospect service time rules are working (7:47)
  • The Angels have made a solid start to the season, and with a deeper lineup and a promising rotation is this finally the year they get back to the playoffs? Or will their bullpen hold them back? (13:21)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Who will be a surprise seller at the deadline, and who’s a surprise player that could be made available? (18:33)
  • Is Gary Sanchez the answer to providing a bit more thump in the Giants’ lineup? (23:08)
  • How will Francisco Alvarez do with the Mets? Will he force his way into the starting lineup on a regular basis, or will the Mets wind up sending him back to Triple-A and bringing in an external catcher? (25:55)

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Latest On Orioles’ Rotation

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The Orioles haven’t gotten much production from their rotation through the first couple weeks. Baltimore starters entered play Wednesday with a 6.23 ERA that ranked 26th in the majors, while their strikeout and walk rates are middle-of-the-pack.

Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has been part of those struggles, allowing seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his first two MLB starts. While the results haven’t been great, the highly-touted righty has shown the high-octane stuff that has intrigued evaluators and fans for years. He’s averaging 97 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on an excellent 13.2% of his pitches.

After Rodriguez’s start against the A’s on Tuesday, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters the rookie would get another turn through the rotation (relayed by Roch Kuabtko of MASNsports.com). Assuming the club stays on schedule, Rodriguez is lined up to take the ball against Dylan Cease and the White Sox on Sunday.

The O’s didn’t break camp with Rodriguez in the rotation. Baltimore called him up last week after losing Kyle Bradish to the 15-day injured list because of a right foot contusion. Bradish’s injury was never expected to be serious and he’s already set for a rehab assignment. Hyde told reporters the righty will take the ball for Double-A Bowie on Friday (via Andy Kostka of Baltimore Banner). That’d seemingly put Bradish on track to be reinstated when first eligible on April 19.

Hyde downplayed the possibility of rolling with a six-man rotation. If the O’s want to stick with a five-man starting staff, they’d have to make a decision once Bradish is activated from the IL (barring an intervening injury). Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks to hold jobs, which would seemingly squeeze one of Bradish, Rodriguez, Tyler Wells or Dean Kremer out of the group.

Kremer, in particular, is off to a rough start. The 27-year-old has been tagged for 13 runs in 12 1/3 innings across three appearances, surrendering five home runs in that limited stretch. Kremer had been one of Baltimore’s most effective starters last year, when he posted a 3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 frames. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote last night that Kremer’s hold on a rotation spot could be tenuous if he continues to scuffle. That came before the righty surrendered four runs and allowed homers to Brent Rooker and Carlos Pérez in 4 1/3 frames during tonight’s loss to Oakland.

Orioles Recall Grayson Rodriguez, Place Kyle Bradish On IL

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The Orioles have announced that right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been recalled and will start today’s game against the Rangers. It was reported last night that the prospect was joining the club and likely to jump into the rotation. Fellow righty Kyle Bradish was placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 4, with a right foot contusion.

Rodriguez, 23, will be making his major league debut today, which has been a long time coming. A first-round pick from 2018, he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the sport for a while. Baseball America has ranked him on their top 100 list in each of the past four seasons, with Rodriguez in the top 10 both this year and last year. He seemed to be cruising towards a debut last year since he began the season in Triple-A, but a lat strain then put him on the shelf for about three months and prevented that from happening.

Throughout the winter, it was expected by many that Rodriguez would crack the club’s Opening Day rotation, with general manager Mike Elias stating that was his expectation as well. But the young hurler didn’t look great in spring, posting a 7.04 ERA in his five starts. He struck out 19 hitters in his 15 1/3 innings but also walked seven and allowed 17 hits, including three home runs. The club decided not to carry him in the Opening Day rotation after all and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk at the end of camp.

The O’s were probably hoping for Rodriguez to spend a bit more time in the minors getting into a good groove, but circumstances necessitated a quick change. Bradish was struck on his foot by a comebacker on Monday and was removed after just 28 pitches and 1 2/3 innings. That’s led to the recall of Rodriguez after just a single start for Norfolk, which didn’t exactly go swimmingly. He threw 75 pitches over four innings, allowing three runs, two earned. He only struck out two opponents, walked four of them and surrendered four hits.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in his first taste of major league action. On the one hand, the recent results haven’t been amazing. On the other, he’s ranked high on prospect lists because of his quality arsenal and has had better results in the past. He posted a 2.20 ERA in his 14 Triple-A starts last year, striking out 35.8% of batters he faced along the way.

If Rodriguez is able to thrive and hold onto his roster spot the rest of the way, he’ll be able to earn a full year of service time. The major league baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs to only spend 172 days on the active roster, or injured list, in order to bank a full year. That will obviously have implications for him personally, as hitting that mark would put him on track to reach arbitration after 2025 and free agency after 2028. But further time in the minors could keep him shy of that line and potentially push those timelines back a year.

The team could also benefit if Rodriguez sticks around, on top of whatever contributions he makes on the field. If a player has less than 60 days of service time and is considered a top 100 prospect by two of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN then earns a full service year, they become eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or cracks the top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration years, the team will net an extra draft pick. This began with the new collective bargaining agreement that was signed a year ago and has already happened once, with the Mariners getting an extra draft pick when Julio Rodríguez won Rookie of the Year last season. Baltimore’s young pitcher is on all three of the aforementioned prospect lists, putting all of this on the table.

Those will be concerns for the future. In the short term, the club will have to see which version of Rodriguez shows up, the one who looked dominant in Triple-A last year or the one who floundered in spring this year. He’ll slot into the rotation next to Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, with Bradish returning at some point down the line.

Orioles Expected To Promote Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles may soon bring up one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. Grayson Rodriguez will join the team in Texas tomorrow and is under consideration to start their game against the Rangers. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after tonight’s game that Baltimore hasn’t yet named their starter for tomorrow (relayed by Dan Connolly of the Athletic). That’s not to say it won’t be Rodriguez, who is still expected to join the MLB team in Arlington, but that doesn’t seem official as of now.

Rodriguez, 23, competed for a spot in the club’s Opening Day rotation but struggled to a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work during camp, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A. However, right-hander Kyle Bradish left his start yesterday with a foot contusion in the second inning. That pushed Tyler Wells to pitch five innings in relief of Bradish rather than make his scheduled start tonight. With Kyle Gibson moving up to take the ball tonight in place of Wells, that left no one to start tomorrow’s game against Texas.

It appears Rodriguez will make that start. As Dan Connolly of the Athletic points out (on Twitter), recalling a pitcher who had been optioned within the past 15 days would require a corresponding injured list transaction. That’ll presumably result in Bradish landing on the 15-day IL, though Baltimore hasn’t finalized that decision yet. According to Connolly, Austin Voth would be the likeliest option to take the ball if Bradish doesn’t go on the IL.

Assuming Rodriguez is tabbed for the start, it’ll be his MLB debut. Once a consensus top five prospect in the sport, Rodriguez struggled with a lat strain for much of the 2022 season. That caused him to slip slightly down some prospect rankings, though he remains a top 20 prospect in the eyes of virtually every prospecting service, with a career 2.49 ERA in the minor leagues supported by an eye-popping 35.9% strikeout rate.

Evaluators credit Rodriguez with one of the best arsenals in minor league baseball. Baseball America gives him above-average or better grades for four pitches, highlighted by plus-plus reviews of his fastball and slider. Keith Law of the Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, by contrast, each pointed to his changeup as the headlining pitch in his arsenal.

While a few days of the season have already elapsed, there’s still enough time for Rodriguez to reach a full service year in 2023. Players are credited with a full year so long as they’re on a roster for 172 days. If Rodriguez is in the majors from here on out, he’d hit that mark. Accruing a full service year would put him on track to first reach arbitration after the 2025 season and qualify for free agency for the first time over the 2028-29 offseason.

The timing of the promotion may also be significant for the Orioles. Rodriguez is a consensus top prospect, appearing on Top 100 lists at all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. Teams that carry prospects who appear on at least two of those three lists for a full service year could recoup draft compensation as part of the collective bargaining agreement’s prospect promotion incentive. If Rodriguez logs a complete service year, the O’s would receive an extra pick in the amateur draft if he wins Rookie of the Year in 2023 or secures a top three finish in Cy Young or MVP balloting between 2023-25. Julio Rodriguez is the only player to net his team compensation under that provision so far, doing so as a result of his Rookie of the Year win in 2022.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, so the club won’t have to make a 40-man transaction. He has a full slate of minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible the O’s send him back to Triple-A Norfolk at some point if they feel he needs continued development time.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America first reported Rodriguez was being promoted.

Orioles Not Planning To Carry Grayson Rodriguez On Opening Day Roster

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Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez isn’t going to be on the club’s Opening Day roster, reports Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Rodriguez will start the season in Triple-A instead.

Rodriguez, 23, is a former first round draft pick, having been selected by the Orioles 11th overall in 2018. As he’s moved up the minor league ladder, he’s also climbed prospect lists. Baseball America has considered him one of the ten best prospects in the league, regardless of position, in each of the past two years.

He seemed on track to make his MLB debut last year, as he began the season in Triple-A. However, he suffered a lat strain in June that kept him out of action until September. He still finished the season with a strong 2.62 ERA over 75 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.6% of batters faced.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft and the club seemed to be quite open to Rodriguez making his debut at the start of the 2023 season, with general manager Mike Elias stating as much in January. However, the youngster hasn’t exactly forced the club’s hand here in spring, as he’s posted a 7.04 ERA in five starts, allowing 17 hits and seven walks in 15 1/3 innings. He did strike out 19 batters in that time, but it seems his overall performance wasn’t enough to nab him a spot on the roster out of the gate.

Since Rodriguez is on the 40-man roster, he could very easily be recalled to join the big league club early in the campaign, especially if an injury creates a need. Teams never go through an entire season using just five pitchers and Rodriguez will likely get a shot to make his debut at some point. How much time he eventually spends in the minors could have service time implications, as it could prevent him from earning a full year. A baseball season is typically 186 days but a player needs to spend only 172 of them in the bigs to earn a full “year” of service. Even if they come up short of that, they can get bumped up to the one-year mark if they meet certain conditions. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting, per the latest collective bargaining agreement. This already happened last year, with Adley Rutschman being awarded a full year despite missing the first few weeks of the season. Rodriguez is on all three of those aforementioned prospect lists and could potentially follow the same path as Rutschman.

For the Orioles, their rotation without Rodriguez figures to consist of Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. Rodriguez will be in Norfolk, looking to be the next man up, though he’ll be competing with DL Hall, who was recently optioned and will be building up to a starter’s workload.

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