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Grayson Rodriguez

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Orioles Select Grayson Rodriguez, Four Others

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The Orioles announced they have added five players to their roster in advance of tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline. They are right-handers Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Johnson and Noah Denoyer, along with lefty Drew Rom and shortstop Joey Ortiz.

Rodriguez is arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, making him one of the easiest additions on Rule 5 protection day. The former first-round pick could’ve factored into the MLB mix at some point this year, but a lat strain threw him off track. He did make 14 starts with Triple-A Norfolk, working to a sparkling 2.20 ERA while punching out an excellent 35.8% of opposing hitters. While there was no intrigue with Baltimore’s decision regarding the Rule 5 draft, it’ll be fascinating to see whether Rodriguez can crack Baltimore’s big league roster out of Spring Training.

Johnson was a supplemental first-rounder of the Rays during the 2019 draft. He landed in Baltimore via the three-team Trey Mancini deal at the deadline. The Campbell product recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of next year, but the O’s like him enough as a prospect to give him an offseason 40-man spot. He can be placed on the MLB 60-day injured list at the start of the season to reopen the roster vacancy.

Denoyer went undrafted in 2019 out of a California junior college, but he’s pitched his way onto a 40-man roster. He’s a reliever who split the 2022 campaign between High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie. Denoyer spent most of the year in Bowie, working to a 2.61 ERA with an excellent 35.4% strikeout rate and a meager 5.6% walk percentage over 51 2/3 innings. He’ll be 25 by Opening Day and could factor into the big league bullpen next year.

Rom, 23 next month, split his season between Bowie and Norfolk. He combined for a 4.43 ERA through 120 innings with a 27.1% strikeout percentage and an 8.9% walk rate. A fourth-round selection out of a Kentucky high school in 2018, he was named the #18 prospect in the Baltimore system midseason by Baseball America. He’s a viable back-of-the-rotation candidate next year.

Ortiz went in the fourth round in 2019 coming out of New Mexico State. A gifted defensive shortstop, he split his season between the minors top two levels. The right-handed hitter put up a cumulative .284/.349/.477 mark across 600 plate appearances, pounding out 35 doubles and 19 home runs. He’s part of an excellent pipeline of upper minors infielders in the Baltimore system.

Prospect Notes: Alvarez, Jung, Casas, Rodriguez

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There was some concern that Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez could require surgery on his ailing right ankle, but the team received relatively good news on that front, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. While Alvarez does have a loose body in his ankle, he won’t undergo surgery and will instead receive an injection to alleviate some of the discomfort he’s been experiencing. The hope is that Alvarez could resume baseball activities as soon as next week.

Alvarez, 20, ranks among the top ten prospects in all of baseball on the majority of publications and is currently the game’s top-ranked prospect at FanGraphs and MLB.com. He tore through Double-A pitching earlier this season despite being one of the league’s youngest players, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers and 16 doubles through 296 plate appearances. However, Alvarez stumbled a bit in Triple-A, slashing just .180/.340/.378 in his first 141 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in Double-A to 28.4% in Triple-A. Alvarez hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 23.

A few more notes on some of the game’s top prospects…

  • Rangers fans are (understandably) clamoring for third baseman Josh Jung to make his Major League debut, and general manager Chris Young and interim manager Tony Beasley discussed with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the team’s decision to hold off on promoting him just yet. Texas is also taking a look at infield prospect Ezequiel Duran, who’s playing third base in the big leagues right now and would be displaced with a Jung promotion. “We have an opportunity to play [Duran] and we just want to take advantage of that until it’s not there,” Beasley said. From a bigger picture vantage point, Jung still has just 83 plate appearances in Triple-A after missing the first four-plus months of the season due to shoulder surgery. Grant points out that Jung still hasn’t gone a full week playing third base every day — he’s spent eight games at DH — and the Rangers will want to see him at the hot corner as much as possible in the big leagues. When Jung originally underwent surgery, the expectation was that he’d miss the majority of the season and perhaps be able to DH for a few weeks late in the year. He’s beaten both the timeline and that DH-only projection, and he’s decimated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .299/.349/.610 batting line. It still seems Jung will debut in the near future, but Young emphasized the organization is focused on his long-term outlook rather than getting his bat into the big league lineup as soon as possible.
  • While slugger Triston Casas wasn’t among the Red Sox’ initial September call-ups, manager Alex Cora said on WEEI’s Merloni, Fauria & Mego show this week that the team has discussed giving Casas his first taste of the big leagues sometime this month (Twitter link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Casas, 22, missed two months with a high ankle sprain but has been excellent since returning to the lineup in Triple-A Worcester, hitting .300/.410/.515 with five homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 156 plate appearances. The 6’4″, 252-pound first baseman is considered one of the best bats in the minors and ranks 31st or better among all MLB prospects at The Athletic, MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. The Red Sox will have to add Casas to the 40-man roster this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft anyhow, so there’s plenty of reason to get an earlier look at him.
  • Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez made his first appearance for an Orioles affiliate in three months last night, returning from a Grade 2 lat strain that, at one point, threatened the remainder of his season. Rodriguez threw just 31 pitches in 1 1/3 innings with Class-A Aberdeen and exited after back-to-back walks in the second inning. He told reporters after the game that he’d simply hit the pitch count the organization placed upon his first appearance since June 1 (link via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). Considered by many to be the game’s top pitching prospect, Rodriguez overwhelmed Triple-A lineups prior to his injury, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a 37.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate through 56 innings. He’s not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but he’ll need to be added in the offseason or else be Rule 5-eligible, so it’s at least possible the O’s call him up for a big league debut late in the regular season if his rehab work progresses nicely.

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

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The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

Orioles’ Prospect Grayson Rodriguez Diagnosed With Lat Strain

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TODAY: Elias provided reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski) with another update, saying Rodriguez has suffered a Grade 2 lat strain.  As a result, Rodriguez isn’t expected to return until September at the earliest, and while “I definitely don’t want to rule out him pitching later this season if we think it’s the right thing to do,” Elias said there is a possibility the team might ultimately shut the righty down for the rest of 2022.  Ultimately, the Orioles’ aim is to have Rodriguez on the Opening Day roster for 2023.

JUNE 2: Orioles pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez suffered a right lat strain during his start last night with Triple-A Norfolk, general manager Mike Elias announced to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and Dan Connolly of the Athletic). Elias declined to specify a timetable for his return to game action but ominously noted the 22-year-old “is going to miss a decent amount of time at minimum.” (Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun first reported the diagnosis before the team announcement).

It’s a disappointing development both for Rodriguez personally and the Baltimore fanbase. The 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Rodriguez has cemented himself as one of the sport’s most highly-regarded minor league arms. Baseball America just ranked the right-hander the sport’s #3 overall prospect and top pitching farmhand on its updated Top 100 list this morning. FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN each rated him as the league’s best minor league pitcher heading into the season.

Rodriguez has backed up that optimism with an incredible start to the year in Norfolk. Through 11 starts with the Tides, he’s worked 56 innings of 2.09 ERA ball. The Texas native has fanned an incredible 37.4% of batters faced at the minors’ top level against a meager 6.5% walk rate. He’s allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings at every stop in his pro career.

That utter domination of Triple-A hitters had seemed to put Rodriguez on the map for an imminent call-up. That’ll obviously be on hold while he’s out of action, and Elias declined to answer when asked if this injury could prevent Rodriguez from making his major league debut at any point in 2022 (Connolly link). In any event, whatever hope O’s fans had of potentially seeing the prized young hurler in Camden Yards over the next few weeks has been dashed.

It’s a disappointing setback, although Elias expressed confidence Rodriguez wouldn’t be hampered long-term by his recovery process. At 22-30, the O’s are likely ticketed for another last place finish in the AL East. The timing of Rodriguez’s debut won’t change the team’s fortunes this season, but he’d provide a jolt to the fanbase and get a development opportunity against big league hitters if he returns to health and gets on a big league mound at some point this season.

60-Man Player Pool Additions: Orioles, Rays

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A couple of American League East teams have made new additions to their 60-man player pools. Here are the latest updates:

  • One of the Orioles’ top prospects, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has joined their player pool, the team announced. The 20-year-old isn’t far removed from going 11th overall to the Orioles in the 2018 draft. He made his Single-A debut last year and turned heads with a 2.68 ERA, 12.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 94 innings. Rodriguez currently ranks among the league’s best farmhands – FanGraphs (No. 29), MLB.com (36) and Baseball America (37) are among the prospect outlets that are quite bullish on him.
  • The Rays have added catcher/outfielder Brett Sullivan, who will head to their alternate training site, Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets. Sullivan was a 17th-round pick of the Rays in 2015 who has since climbed to Double-A ball. He batted an impressive .280/.333/.459 (127 wRC+) and hit 10 home runs with 21 stolen bases in 403 plate appearances last season.

Orioles Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles have agreed to a $4.3MM bonus with first-rounder Grayson Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). As expected, per a recent report from Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com, Rodriguez will receive just less than the $4,375,100 bonus pool allocation that comes with the 11th overall pick that the Baltimore used to select him.

Entering the draft, evaluators saw Rodriguez as a clear first-round talent, but graded him just outside the top twenty or so draft-eligible prospects. But the O’s did not feel they were settling for the young right-hander.

Indeed, scouting director Gary Rajsich was effusive in his comments on the team’s top incoming amateur player. “We love him and we were just thrilled he was there for us at pick 11,” said Rajsich, who credited Rodriguez for possessing “a unique combination of power and polish.

Independent prospect rankings just aren’t quite as smitten, clearly, which makes Rodriguez all the more interesting to track as he enters the professional ranks. While the differences are in large part matters of degree and emphasis, there’s a split of opinion.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law, who ranked Rodriguez 22nd on his board, wrote: “[Rodriguez] has more effort in his delivery, and there’s at least a little concern that his trouble repeating it will eventually point him to the bullpen. He also hasn’t shown much of a third pitch to date.” Rajsich, meanwhile, says that his club’s new power arm comes with “advanced command of four pitches” and an “advanced delivery that he can repeat.”

O’s second-rounder Cadyn Grenier is also nearing a deal, Melewski adds. He, too, is expected to come in just under his slot value ($1,923,500).

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