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Brewers “Moving Closer” To Deal With Wade Miley

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5:27 PM: Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates this evening that the Brewers and Miley are “moving closer” to a deal, while noting that an agreement between the sides would be a one-year arrangement.

9:57 AM: It would appear as though the Brewers and Wade Miley are making progress on a reunion, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicts that a deal between the two sides will “materialize in the coming days.”  Miley pitched for Milwaukee during the 2018 season and then returned to the Brew City last season on a one-year, $4.5MM deal with a $10MM mutual option for 2024.  Like with virtually all mutual options, it wasn’t exercised, as Miley declined his end of the option and took a $1MM buyout to re-enter free agency.

Some elbow soreness and a lat strain limited Miley to 120 1/3 innings last season, but that was still a vast improvement over his injury-riddled 2022 campaign as a member of the Cubs roster.  Miley’s comeback year included a very solid 3.14 ERA over his 120 1/3 frames, though advanced metrics (like a 5.04 SIERA) were much less impressed by the veteran’s performance.  Miley benefited from a .234 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate, and his 16.1% strikeout rate ranked in only the eighth percentile of all pitchers.

These numbers notwithstanding, secondary metrics have often been down on Miley over the course of his 13-year career, as the left-hander has never been much of a strikeout pitcher and he has relied on grounders (49% career groundball rate) and soft contact to achieve success.  Miley’s efforts at limiting hard contact have been particularly successful over the last few years, and his 31.3% hard-hit ball rate was one of the better marks in baseball in 2023.

This skillset has led to some pretty varied results over Miley’s long career, as the BABIP gods haven’t always been on his side.  Nonetheless, the Brewers still seem interested in what Miley can bring to the table as he enters his age-37 season, and Rosenthal notes that the team also values his off-the-field contributions as a clubhouse leader.  It is probably safe to assume that Miley will sign another relatively inexpensive one-year contract, perhaps with another option of some sort covering the 2025 season.  That is surely appealing to a Brewers team with a limited budget, and a need for some extra depth in the rotation.

Should Miley return, he’ll join Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and (another re-signed pitcher in) Colin Rea as the projected starting five, with depth options that include Janson Junk, top prospect Robert Gasser, and Aaron Ashby returning from an injury-marred 2023 season.  There is plenty of fluidity within this group, however, as rumors persist that Milwaukee could trade Burnes prior to his final year of team control.

NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs

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The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox.  However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.

Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands.  But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides.  Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.

More from the National League…

  • Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale.  The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion.  Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante.  The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions.  In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
  • The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively.  Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side.  Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
  • Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week.  Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers’ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system.  Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it.  This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”

Latest On Shohei Ohtani

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1:32PM: The numbers continue to escalate for Ohtani, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “Ohtani is believed to already have received multiple bids well north of $500MM, and some speculate he could even wind up as baseball’s first $600MM man.”

11:49AM: Shohei Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes have been largely shrouded in mystery, as Ohtani and agent Nez Balelo have specifically prioritized a low profile approach to perhaps the most high-profile free agency in baseball history.  As such, there has been a lot of speculation and relatively little facts about Ohtani’s market, though there are some indications that the two-time AL MVP might be coming somewhat closer to a decision.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) hears from a source that Ohtani “is likely to” make his choice within the week, though this timeline could indicate that the news could come after the Winter Meetings have concluded.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has a slightly different timeline, indicating that Ohtani will make his choice “certainly before the Christmas holidays” but also more than a week from now, so roughly mid-December.

It isn’t a stretch to say that whenever Ohtani does make the call, it will automatically become the most pivotal day of the offseason calendar.  Ohtani is widely expected to sign the largest contract in baseball history, and thus his free agency has to some extent held up the market as a whole.  Such known suitors as the Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs have largely held off on any other major business until they know if they’ll be adding a $500MM+ Ohtani contract to their long-term payroll plans.  As such, several top players have yet to make their own free agent decisions, waiting for these big-spending potential suitors to more fully engage in the rest of the market — and possibly be more eager to spend elsewhere after missing out on Ohtani.

Since it’s only December 3, it’s worth reminding that the offseason isn’t even at the halfway point yet, and Ohtani is hardly taking any sort of unusually long time in deciding on his next team.  Given the sport-altering amounts of money involved and how any free agent decision big or small is a life-changing decision for a player, it would’ve been more surprising if Ohtani had already made his choice this relatively early into the winter.

So little is known about Ohtani’s thought process that it is hard to say whether or not the aforementioned five teams (or any possible mystery teams) could be true finalists.  However, the last few days has seen the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mets reportedly all step back from the Ohtani sweepstakes in some sense, perhaps indicating that the bidding has either gotten too high, or that Ohtani’s camp has given some indication that these three clubs are no longer in consideration.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Angels’ 2023 Payroll Stayed Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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12:52PM: The Angels’ final tax number fell within just $30K of the threshold, the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher reports.

11:28AM: The Angels’ final luxury tax calculations placed the team slightly under the $233MM threshold, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  As a result, the Halos will both avoid paying any tax money and ensure that they will receive a higher compensatory draft pick should Shohei Ohtani depart in free agency.  If Ohtani signs elsewhere, the Angels’ pick will fall after the second round of the 2024 draft, whereas the pick would’ve come after the fourth round as part of the penalties attached to teams who exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

This represents a difference of roughly 55-60 spots in the draft order for the Angels, which is no small matter even if a compensatory pick is a relatively thin silver lining for losing a generational talent like Ohtani.  Staying under the tax line also means, however, that Los Angeles would face less of a penalty if it signs another free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Signing such a player will now cost the Halos $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft, whereas if they had exceeded the CBT threshold, the Angels would’ve had to give up $1MM in international pool money and their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Since owner Arte Moreno has made a point of bringing big-name free agents to Anaheim, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Halos responded to the possible loss of Ohtani by trying to obtain another star.  It also can’t be ruled out that Ohtani might stay with the Angels after all, even if the expectation is that the AL MVP will depart for a team that can offer him a better chance at winning than the perennially disappointing Angels.

In avoiding a tax penalty, the Angels continue their streak of staying under the CBT threshold in every season since 2004, which was Moreno’s first full year as the club’s owner.  As much as Moreno has been willing to splurge on big contracts, it has been clear that he has viewed the tax threshold as an unofficial salary cap, with this past season being the one exception.  As part of a final push to retain Ohtani and finally end the Angels’ string of losing seasons, the club was aggressive throughout the summer in adding pieces to atone for injury losses, until a disastrous run in August ended their playoff hopes.

L.A. then pivoted by placing a big chunk of their roster on the waiver wire just before the September 1 deadline for postseason eligibility, hoping that contenders in need of reinforcements would make some claims and bring the Angels some salary relief.  Given the specifics of the dollar figures and the narrow margin of error the Angels were working with, it wasn’t quite clear until today whether or not Los Angeles had gotten under the tax line or not, but it appears as though the team’s efforts weren’t for naught.

Mariners, Blue Jays Interested In Isaac Paredes

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Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors.  There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years.  He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.

As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena.  Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.

In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely.  It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.

The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022.  Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move.  Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.

Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022.  This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023.  On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average.  In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.

This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup.  The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon.  The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more.  That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.

Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade.  With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks.  Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary.  On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.

Mets Interested In Jung Hoo Lee

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Most of the offseason buzz surrounding the Mets has focused on their pursuits of pitching, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Amazins also have “strong interest” in outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.  Between New York’s known interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and now Lee, it is clear that the Mets are taking a particularly hard look at the overseas market as an avenue to add talent to the roster.

Though David Stearns is now in charge of the Mets’ front office, the international market isn’t exactly a new direction for the club, considering that Kodai Senga was signed to a five-year, $75MM deal just last offseason.  That deal is looking like a wise investment considering Senga’s success in his first MLB season, and adding any of Lee, Yamamoto, or Imanaga would be an intriguing upgrade over the long term.  This fits with the general assessment that the Mets are more focused on 2025 as the target date for their true return to championship contention, though obviously the team still wants to achieve some on-field success in the coming season.

Lee is expected to be posted by the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes any day now, and once he officially hits the market, the Mets and other teams will have 30 days to reach a contract with the 25-year-old outfielder.  If no deal is reached, Lee would return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next offseason to again seek out a Major League deal, yet there seems to be enough interest in his services now that Lee will very likely be making his big league debut in 2024.  MLB Trade Rumors projected a five-year, $50MM deal for Lee, and ranked him 15th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The Mets join the Yankees, Giants, and Padres as known suitors for Lee’s services, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman estimates that around 20 teams have some level of interest in Lee.  Naturally, owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend gives the Mets some level of financial advantage over a lot of suitors, and it might also help the Amazins that their overall offseason focus is little more narrowed than most big-market teams.  Whereas clubs like the Giants, Yankees, or Dodgers are broadly “in on everyone” as a matter of due diligence, the Mets’ prioritization of the 2025 season has reportedly made them less interested in many trade targets only under contract for the 2024 campaign (i.e. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, or Shane Bieber).

Lee was the KBO’s MVP in 2022, and is a five-time winner of their Gold Glove Award for his outfield work (primarily as a center fielder).  His 2023 season was prematurely ended in July due to ankle surgery, though there aren’t any known complications preventing Lee from being fully fit for the start of Spring Training.  With a .340/.407/.491 slash line over 3947 career plate appearances for the Heroes, Lee has been more than a match for KBO pitching, though gauging how that will translate against the higher caliber of MLB pitching is the big question for any position player coming from the hitter-friendly KBO League.

Evaluators have some concerns over Lee’s defensive future and if he can generate enough power to be a true top-tier Major League hitter, though there might be a decent talent floor in place if Lee is “only” a high average/OBP type of batter who is more than capable in left field.  Sliding Lee into the Mets’ left field vacancy makes for a very easy fit, and Lee could also get time up the middle if Brandon Nimmo was moved to left field.  Public defensive metrics have been mixed at best over Nimmo’s center field glovework over the years, so even if Lee is perhaps not a sure thing at the position, he might represent at least a short-term defensive upgrade over Nimmo.

Padres Interested In Corbin Burnes

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Much of the hot stove buzz around the Padres this offseason has focused on the team’s reported desire to cut payroll, and the possibility that a Juan Soto trade could be an ideal way for the Friars to both save money and reload with some new talent.  However, the Padres firmly still intend to get back to winning baseball in 2024, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has interest in trading for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Nick Martinez has already left to join the Reds, and there is little expectation that either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha will be re-signed, given the Padres’ apparent budget concerns.  That leaves San Diego in severe need of starting pitching depth behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and adding a former Cy Young Award winner like Burnes would certainly provide a huge boost.  While more work would need to be done on the back end of the rotation, the Padres would suddenly have a top three comparable to any other starting trio in baseball.

Acee’s piece details some of the financial factors going into the Padres’ winter plans, and notes that “the Padres have inquired about most of the top starters” available in free agency, even if signing one of the bigger-name arms doesn’t seem likely.  Acquiring pitchers on more moderate free agent deals or via the trade market seems much more realistic, though landing Burnes would naturally come at a heavy price.

Firstly, it isn’t yet clear that the Brewers are even going to move Burnes, as much as their own payroll situation might make a deal seem sensible.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1MM in 2024, which is his final year of arbitration eligibility before testing free agency.  Given Milwaukee’s history of spending, it doesn’t seem likely that the Crew will fork over the pricey extension or free agent deal it would take to keep Burnes in Wisconsin, so there is some merit in moving him this winter.

In essence, it’s the same decision the Padres face with Soto, who is projected for a whopping $33MM arbitration salary and will also be a free agent come next winter.  Soto is widely expected to seek a contract upwards of $500MM since he’ll be only entering his age-26 season in 2025, and re-signing in San Diego suddenly seems less likely if the Padres are going to be reining in their spending.

Just to get the obvious hypothetical out of the way, a trade of Soto for Burnes in some fashion might not be too feasible for either San Diego or Milwaukee.  It obviously wouldn’t be a straight one-for-one swap, yet it’s very fun to imagine a blockbuster swap that would see the Padres get the pitching upgrade they need while the offense-needy Brewers land an elite bat.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has plenty of creative trades on his resume, and last winter’s three-team swap with the Braves and Athletics shows that Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is also no stranger to bold moves.

This all being said, the trade package San Diego reportedly wanted from the Yankees is perhaps more instructive as to what the Padres are looking to achieve with a Soto deal.  If the Friars are looking for a mix of win-now talent, prospects, and salary relief (perhaps involving unloading the contract of a player like Trent Grisham), then very few teams can meet that asking price.  Obviously that reported Yankees offer might represent a high starting ask from Preller and his demands might lessen as the offseason develops, yet a smaller-market team like the Brewers that particularly values prospects as the backbone of their organization isn’t going to make a big splurge for one year of control over Soto.  If anything, Arnold might be looking for a similar return for Burnes — a trade package that helps set the Brewers up for years to come, not a particular win-now push for 2024.

If a direct trade between the two teams might not work, it is possible another three-team deal could be explored, and Acee suggests that a three-team trade might be the only way for the Padres to fully achieve most of their goals in dealing Soto.  In regards to Milwaukee specifically, perhaps the Padres could move Soto to a third club, then funnel some of the young talent they’d receive from that mystery team towards the Brewers to then add Burnes for San Diego’s rotation.  The permutations here are pretty much endless, and there’s a reason why three-team trades are relatively rare, particularly three-team trades involving some of the game’s biggest superstars.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Burnes’ trade market, and the Padres weren’t one of the 12 teams Steve identified as the best possible fits for the right-hander.  This doesn’t mean the Padres (or even one of the other clubs not cited) absolutely couldn’t emerge as something of a surprise suitor, and the team’s interest altogether indicates that Preller isn’t planning a fire sale of the roster.

Coaching Notes: Tigers, Iapoce, Royals, Dillon

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Catching up on some coaching staff moves from around baseball…

  • The Tigers will name Anthony Iapoce as their new first base coach, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News reports (X link).  Tim Federowicz is leaving his position as the big league catching coach to take over as the manager at Triple-A Toledo, which was Iapoce’s previous job in 2023.  Iapoce worked as a hitting coach with the Rangers and Cubs from 2016-21 and then as a senior hitting coordinator with the Red Sox in 2022 before joining Detroit’s organization.  Federowicz retired from playing following the 2021 season, and the former catcher is already on his second Triple-A managerial stint after previously being the skipper of the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2022.
  • The Royals announced the hiring of Joe Dillon as an assistant hitting coach.  A big leaguer with the Marlins, Brewers, and Rays from 2005-09, Dillon’s time in Tampa’s organization overlapped with the tenure of current Royals manager Matt Quatraro, back when Quatraro was working as an instructor in the Rays’ minor league system.  Dillon also has longstanding ties in Kansas City, as the Royals began his pro career when they selected him in the seventh round of the 1997 draft.  Since retiring as a player, Dillon has worked as a hitting coach and coordinator at the Major League and minor league level, including two years as the Nationals’ assistant hitting coach in 2018-19, and then working as the Phillies’ big league hitting coach in 2020-21.

Orioles Interested In Robert Stephenson

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With the Orioles already exploring the high-end reliever market, Robert Stephenson is another name drawing interest from Baltimore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).

The O’s saw plenty of Stephenson when he pitched for the Rays last season, a 38 1/3-inning stint that set a new ceiling on the former first-rounder’s potential.  While Stephenson had posted good results over full seasons (with the Reds in 2019 and with the Rockies in 2021) and for the last month of the 2022 season after the Pirates claimed him away from Colorado, the right-hander had simply been too inconsistent to be a truly reliable bullpen arm.  Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings with Pittsburgh last season before the Rays acquired him in a June trade, and that’s when the turnaround happened.

Stephenson proceeded to post a 2.35 ERA, 42.9% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his 38 1/3 frames for Tampa, suddenly breaking out as one of the best relievers in baseball.  A tiny .194 BABIP undoubtedly contributed to that success, yet the rest of Stephenson’s metrics were so impressive that batted-ball luck alone couldn’t account for his success.  Replacing his slider with a cutter as his secondary pitch worked wonders for Stephenson, as his cutter became one of the more overpowering pitches in all of baseball.

While 38 1/3 innings isn’t a huge sample size by any stretch, Stephenson’s run in Tampa Bay was so dominant that it has made him one of the most sought-after names on the relief market as he enters his age-31 season.  Morosi previously reported that the Cubs, Angels, and Dodgers all had interest in the righty’s services, and the Orioles now become the fourth team linked to the Stephenson market.

MLBTR ranked Stephenson 27th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a four-year, $36MM contract.  Darragh McDonald also picked the Orioles as Stephenson’s landing spot, despite the fact that the O’s have yet to sign any player to even a multi-year contract during Mike Elias’ tenure as general manager.  While nobody expects the Orioles to suddenly go wild with spending this winter, the team’s 101-win 2023 season shows that Baltimore is firmly capable of contending for a championship, and some level of payroll increase is likely necessary to add what might be only a couple of final pieces to the team’s impressive talent core.

The Orioles have showed signs that they’re at least considering some higher-level expenditures.  Baltimore reportedly checked in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and their ventures into the relief market have included links to Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.

Stephenson perhaps joins Hicks as something of a middle ground between the nine-figure, multi-year deal it will likely take to land Hader and the one-year deals Kimbrel or Chapman are likely to sign.  Signing Stephenson, Hicks, or Hader would give the O’s a longer-term relief arm even after Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and putting any of those relievers with Bautista and Yennier Cano in 2025 and beyond makes for a very promising bullpen situation.

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