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Christian Walker

The Astros Are (Again) Not Getting Much From A Pricey First Base Signing

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The Astros signed Jose Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason, seemingly sealing up a first base position that was one of the few weak links on the club’s World Series-winning roster from the prior season.  Abreu was entering his age-36 season and his power numbers had dropped off considerably in 2022, but the former AL MVP still delivered a strong overall year at the plate by hitting .304/.378/.446 in what proved to be his final year with the White Sox.  Coming off an impressive 137 wRC+, Abreu’s “professional hitter” track record indicated that he would continue to be productive into his late-30s, making his deal a wise investment for Houston on paper.

In practice, of course, things quickly went south for Abreu in his new home.  After hitting only .237/.296/.383 in 594 PA in 2023, Abreu hit so poorly (.124/.167/.195) over his first 120 PA of the 2024 season that the Astros chose to release the veteran in June of last year, and simply ate the remainder of his contract.  Right now, roughly $11.9MM is still owed to Abreu through the remainder of the 2025 season.

Even with such a big chunk of Abreu’s deal still on the books for 2025, the Astros certainly felt the need to address first base in a major fashion this past winter.  It should be noted, technically, that Christian Walker was Houston’s backup plan for the first base position.  After acquiring Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, the Astros then seemingly had another deal lined up with the Cardinals to land Nolan Arenado, which would’ve installed Arenado at third base and Paredes as Houston’s new first baseman.  Instead, Arenado used his no-trade protection to reject the move to Houston, with later reporting revealing that Arenado wasn’t closing the door on the Astros entirely as a landing spot, but simply wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation given that Houston had just dealt away a superstar in Tucker.

Rather than wait for Arenado, the Astros instead made a splash on the free agent market by signing Walker to a three-year, $60MM contract.  This made Paredes the new third baseman, and that part of the equation has at least worked out since Paredes is off to a great start in his first year in an Astros uniform.

To fill first base, then, the Astros seemed to be solidifying things quite nicely with Walker, a two-time Fielding Bible Award-winning defender.  Walker had also hit .253/.332/.464 with 141 home runs over 3171 PA for the Diamondbacks from 2019-24, posting above-average offensive numbers except for his injury-marred 2021 campaign.  He was showing no signs of slowing down as he entered his age-34 season, and in the eyes of many observers, Walker was a much surer thing at first base than Pete Alonso, who is four years younger and had to wait much longer than Walker did to land a new contract.

The 36-29 Astros are in first place in the AL West, and appear to be once again lining up to make a run in October.  The 2025 season is also only 65 games deep, so we’re still dealing with relatively small sample sizes when discussing players who are or aren’t performing well.  Yet, even with the caveat that Walker’s slow start isn’t really holding the Astros back to any great extent, it still isn’t good that his performance has suddenly cratered over his first two-plus months in Houston.

Through 260 plate appearances, Walker is hitting .207/.269/.350 with eight home runs, and only 16 qualified players have a lower wRC+ than Walker’s 76 figure.  His 6.2% walk rate and 27.7% strikeout rate are each far below the league average, and on pace to be Walker’s worst BB% and K% rates over any of his full Major League seasons.  Walker’s barrel and hard-hit ball rates are slightly down from his 2024 numbers but are still solid, yet his Isolated Power metric has plummeted from .217 in 2024 to just .143 in 2025.

A .258 BABIP is part of the problem, so again, it is certainly possible Walker’s numbers might normalize once more of his hard contact starts translating into hits.  However, Walker is chasing more pitches out of the zone than usual, and his 47.9% pull rate is well above the 42% pull rate he carried into the 2025 season.  One interpretation could be that the right-handed hitting Walker is focusing a little too much on taking advantage of Daikin Park’s short porch in left field, yet his splits pour cold water on that theory.  Walker is hitting .250/.321/.431 at his new home ballpark, and only .165/.217/.273 on the road.

Another set of splits might offer another hint, as Walker has a .662 OPS over 227 PA against right-handed pitching and a .320 OPS in 33 PA against left-handed pitching.  Walker’s career splits against righties and lefties are almost exactly even, yet his lack of production against southpaws (when he should have the advantage) may not stand out as much as how rarely Walker has gotten to face left-handed pitching.

This could be a bit of a statistical fluke, but the Astros’ overall lineup is absurdly lopsided in favor of righty bats.  With Yordan Alvarez and Taylor Trammell on the injured list, rookie Jacob Melton and two backup catchers (Cesar Salazar and the switch-hitting Victor Caratini) provide the only left-handed balance in Houston’s current mix of position players.  Opposing teams have little reason to deploy their lefty pitchers against the Astros’ phalanx of right-handed batters, and Walker may be having some trouble adjusting to this new reality.

If Walker’s batting numbers are a letdown, his glovework is perhaps more shocking than anything.  Walker has produced -4 Defensive Runs Saved and +1 Outs Above Average over 543 1/3 innings at the Astros’ first base spot this year, down from a +7 DRS and +13 OAA in 2024.  Adding to this puzzling situation is the fact that Walker is now suddenly a relative weak link on one of baseball’s better defensive teams — Houston ranks second in baseball in OAA (18), and Fangraphs’ overall defensive ranking system puts the Astros ninth in the league.

The overall result for Walker is a -0.3 fWAR to show for his first 63 games with the Astros.  Needless to say, it is not what Houston expected from its biggest free agent signing, especially since inking Walker cost the Astros not just $60MM but also two compensatory draft picks, since Houston exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024.

Perhaps if Abreu’s contract wasn’t still sitting on the Astros’ books, Walker’s performance could just be written off as a slump, or an adjustment period for a player moving to the AL West after eight years in the National League.  But, Houston fans can be forgiven for sounding some alarm bells over an underwhelming free agent first baseman, especially with Jose Altuve’s own struggles and Alvarez’s uncertain injury situation casting some shadows over the Astros’ good start.  There is plenty of time for Walker to turn things around, of course, and to provide some more concrete evidence that Houston’s first base issue has been properly solved.

Astros Notes: Bregman, McCullers, Garcia, Walker

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Astros owner Jim Crane spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) about a handful of topics today, most notably the club’s pursuit of a reunion with longtime third baseman Alex Bregman this winter. Bregman received a widely-reported offer of $156MM of six years from the Astros early in the winter, and Crane indicates that original offer was not altered at any point during Bregman’s free agency. Bregman, of course, went on to sign a three-year deal with the Red Sox that guarantees him $120MM and affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though deferred money in that contract brings the net present value down to the $90MM range.

Crane’s comments notably conflict with a report back in February that indicated Houston had upped its offer to Bregman from that initial 6/156 figure. As Spring Training approached with Bregman still on the market, there were signals that the sides had resumed discussions as the club toyed with the idea of moving Jose Altuve to left field and Isaac Paredes to second base in order to bring Bregman back into the fold. While Altuve has moved to left field, Paredes remains entrenched at third in the aftermath of Bregman moving on to the Red Sox. After Bregman landed in Boston, the Astros pivoted towards Brendan Rodgers, who will share time with Mauricio Dubon at the keystone this year, to round out their infield mix.

More from Houston…

  • Rome also reports that right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will make a start for Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday. It’s a big milestone for the 31-year-old, as he hasn’t thrown in an official game at the major or minor league level since the 2022 World Series after undergoing flexor surgery back in 2023. That layoff of more than two years could come to an end fairly soon if the righty can avoid additional setbacks, as he’s tentatively expected to return in about a month and has to this point been kept off of the 60-day injured list.
  • News regarding the club’s other injured starter, Luis Garcia, is less positive but still at least somewhat encouraging. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that the first opinion Garcia received on his right elbow was “decent news,” though that hasn’t stopped Garcia and the Astros from seeking a second opinion on the matter before deciding on a course of action. The right-hander was shut down last week after he began feeling discomfort in his elbow again while nearing the end of his rehab following Tommy John surgery back in 2023. While it’s unclear how much longer the 28-year-old figures to be out of action, that Espada showed any signs of encouragement would at least suggest that the righty has not yet been recommended for Tommy John surgery, which would wipe out his 2025 season and likely much of the 2026 campaign as well.
  • Rounding out the news with a positive update, first baseman Christian Walker is reportedly “full go” to start the season after dealing with some oblique soreness in the final weeks of Spring Training. As Walker himself told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters, Walker’s oblique issue “wasn’t too aggressive to begin with” and that he’s facing zero limitations as the season begins. Walker was the biggest acquisition of the club’s offseason, signed to a three-year, $60MM deal to replace the lackluster combination of Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton at first base this year for Houston.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Smith, Walker, McCullers

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Earlier this week, Astros manager Joe Espada told the Houston beat that Jose Altuve would play the “majority” of his games in left field. The second-year skipper walked that back a bit on Friday, indicating that the team’s position player mix remains unsettled.

“I’m not committed to Altuve being the everyday left fielder nor any X player being the everyday second baseman,” Espada said (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “We are exploring all our options here and we’ll make those decisions when we get towards the end of camp.”

Altuve has gotten the bulk of his Spring Training work in left field. That’s likely to continue as the Astros try to build his outfield reps. While Espada’s most recent comments leave the door open for the nine-time All-Star to return to second base, it still seems likely that Altuve will remain the team’s primary left fielder. That’d leave the keystone to Mauricio Dubón. Houston added former Rockies’ Gold Glove winner Brendan Rodgers on a minor league deal. He could also play second base if the Astros want to bounce Dubón around the diamond.

There’s an outside possibility of top prospect Cam Smith factoring into the infield mix before long. Selected 14th overall by the Cubs last summer, Smith went to Houston alongside Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Smith has all of 32 professional games under his belt, only five of which have come above High-A. Though he’s likely to begin the season in the minor leagues, the 22-year-old has turned some heads in his first Spring Training. Smith is 7-11 with a pair of homers in exhibition play. He has drawn four walks while striking out just once.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic examined the possibility of Smith breaking camp with the MLB team. Rome notes that the Astros promoted 2023 third-round pick Jake Bloss last June, less than one calendar year from his draft date. (Bloss was traded to Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal a month later.) Bloss, a right-handed pitcher, had started eight games in Double-A and jumped from there to the big leagues. Carrying Smith on the Opening Day roster would be a bolder move, as he has almost no experience facing upper minors pitching.

Smith is a natural third baseman. That’s the position he played at Florida State and where he saw all of his defensive innings in the Chicago system. Rome writes that the Astros would like to get him some work in right field (in addition to third base) in the minor leagues. Houston’s outfield is arguably its biggest weakness. Altuve will probably have some growing pains defensively if the Astros use him as their primary left fielder. Center fielder Jake Meyers is unlikely to provide much offensively. Chas McCormick is looking to rebound from the worst season of his career in right field. If McCormick struggles for a second consecutive year, right field would be a target for midseason upgrade. The Astros would presumably want Smith to have some minor league experience there before considering him a candidate for outfield work at Daikin Park.

At the same time, they’re also facing a potential injury absence on the infield dirt. Christian Walker went for imaging after reporting soreness in his left oblique. Espada provided an encouraging update on Friday, saying that the MRI didn’t reveal any kind of strain (link via McTaggart). The Astros intend to gradually ease him back into game action.

Smith’s path to breaking camp may be conditional on Walker opening the season on the injured list. That’d leave first base to a combination of Jon Singleton and Zach Dezenzo unless the Astros wanted to slide Paredes across the diamond and install Smith at the hot corner. Espada didn’t commit to Walker being ready for Opening Day, but the lack of a strain seems to leave that as a possibility.

Espada provided one other injury update of note. Lance McCullers Jr. got through a live batting practice session this afternoon without issue (via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). The righty is expected to get into game action in the near future. That’ll be a big step for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since the 2022 World Series. The Astros have already announced that he’ll begin the season on the injured list as he returns from June ’23 flexor surgery. If McCullers gets into Spring Training action, he could be ready to return from the IL within the first few weeks of the regular season.

Injury Notes: Jordan Walker, Christian Walker, Topa

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The Cardinals got good news on Jordan Walker this afternoon. An MRI revealed no structural damage in his left knee, manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including John Denton of MLB.com). Walker is dealing with inflammation that’ll shut him down for around a week, but there’s nothing to suggest this’ll be a serious issue. It would have been a freak injury, as the young outfielder felt the discomfort after stepping on a sprinkler head while tracking a fly ball during Tuesday’s game.

With three weeks until Opening Day, it seems the 22-year-old will be on track for the start of the regular season. He’s in line to work as the everyday right fielder. The former top prospect has yet to develop into the impact hitter that many evaluators believe he could become. Walker has turned in a .255/.317/.423 slash in 643 career plate appearances. That includes a .210/.253/.366 line over 51 MLB games last season. He had pedestrian numbers (.263/.326/.427 over 377 PAs) in Triple-A as well. Walker is young enough that this isn’t yet a make-or-break season, but the Cards’ transitional year should give him an extended opportunity to cement himself.

A couple other health updates from around baseball:

  • Christian Walker felt soreness in his left oblique during batting practice before the Astros game on Wednesday, manager Joe Espada told the beat (relayed by MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). He’s day to day for the moment, but the team will know more tomorrow after further testing. Any kind of strain would make a season-opening injured list stint likely. Walker was Houston’s big free agent pickup, inking a three-year deal that guarantees $60MM. He’s coming off his third consecutive Gold Glove win and hit .251/.335/.468 with 26 homers over 552 plate appearances during his final season in Arizona. If Walker misses time, Jon Singleton would get the bulk of the first base reps. Righty-hitting Zach Dezenzo could take some at-bats against lefty pitching in that situation.
  • Twins reliever Justin Topa has had unfortunate injury luck for most of his career. He has undergone two Tommy John procedures and a flexor tendon surgery. A patellar tendon issue in his left knee limited him to three MLB appearances last season. Topa is now dealing with shoulder discomfort, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star-Tribune. Minnesota lifted the righty from Wednesday’s game after seven pitches when Topa reported shoulder tightness. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that the pitcher wasn’t overly concerned, so it’ll hopefully be a precautionary removal, but he’ll go for further testing tomorrow.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Sign Christian Walker

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December 23: The Astros have officially announced Walker’s signing. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the deal includes a limited no-trade clause and will pay Walker an even $20MM annually per season.

December 20: A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

Christian Walker Reportedly Seeking Four-Year Deal

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Christian Walker has been a popular target in free agency thus far in the offseason, drawing interest not only from the incumbent Diamondbacks but also the Yankees, Mariners, Astros and Nationals, among other clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that interested teams have been unwilling to extend their offers beyond three years but that Walker’s camp “would love to get a fourth year.”

Widespread interest in Walker is only logical. He’s been among the most underrated players in the sport for several seasons. The 33-year-old slugger’s .251/.335/.468 slash from 2024 is a near mirror image of the broader .253/.332/.464 line he carries in nearly 3200 plate appearances dating back to 2019. At the time, it would’ve seemed utterly nonsensical to think that the Diamondbacks would be able to successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did just that and has been rewarded handsomely.

Not only has Walker been consistently productive at the plate — 13% better than average overall, including 20% better over the past three seasons — he’s emerged as one of the game’s best defenders at his position. Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves for his work at first base. Walker’s 33 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons lead all big league first baseman by a wide margin. Matt Olson is second, at 27. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting Walker with 39 Outs Above Average — nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He’s made only eight errors since 2022.

Quietly excellent as Walker has been, however, a four-year deal is a lofty ask when considering his age. He’ll turn 34 in March. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the past decade have secured a four-year deal beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92MM with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56MM with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57MM with the Mariners) and Victor Martinez (four years, $68MM with the Tigers. Donaldson’s deal, now almost five years old, is the most recent of the bunch. Of the four, only Cruz’s contract played out well.

Suffice it to say, four years would break any recent precedent for a position player of this age. Speculatively speaking, he could go the route some other veterans have in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term deals: throw in (in this instance) the fourth year at a discounted rate. General expectations for Walker have been that he’ll command something in the vicinity of $20MM per year. If he were to tack on a fourth year at, say, $8-10MM, that’d get him his fourth season and also lower the luxury-tax hit for the signing club. For many of Walker’s reported suitors, that won’t be a factor, as they’re not CBT payors anyhow. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it could prove significant.

Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons that the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The others include the qualifying offer that’d cost them an additional two draft picks (after already punting two for Max Fried) and the plethora of options available on the free agent market  (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade market (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).

Cubs Interested In Luis Castillo

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The Cubs are one of the teams who have spoken to the Mariners about Luis Castillo’s trade availability, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The depth of Chicago’s interest isn’t known, or if this interest still exists now that the Cubs have already swung a blockbuster deal to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros.  Castillo also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he could veto things entirely if he doesn’t have interest in going to Chicago.

Since the Cubs were known to be looking for pitching, however, it would make sense that they would at least check in on what seems to be an increasingly available trade candidate. Rumors have been swirling about Castillo’s availability in recent days, as while Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly downplayed the idea of trading from Seattle’s rotation depth, it is thought that Castillo might be the most available of the starting five.  The 32-year-old Castillo is at least five years older than any of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, and much more expensive — Castillo is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money from 2025-27, plus a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that becomes guaranteed based on health and an innings threshold.

This salary might be the chief reason the M’s would be open to trading Castillo, as the club is known to be operating within pretty limited payroll parameters.  Divish and Jude note that the Mariners are thought to have around $15MM in spending space, and for a team with several needs to address on offense, their options for signings or other trades widen greatly if Castillo’s contract was off the books.  Freeing up some money might allow the M’s to make a more full-on pursuit of Christian Walker, who the Mariners have had “atop their wish list since the start of the offseason,” Divish and Jude write.

A deal that saw Castillo go to Wrigleyville could also logically bring at least one bat back in Seattle’s direction.  The M’s have already been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, so a swap involving the two of them (if not necessarily a one-for-one) would address both teams’ needs.  Hoerner is owed $23.5MM over the next seasons, so that represents some salary offset if Chicago absorbed all of Castillo’s contract.

On the other hand, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston in the Tucker trade package has already cost the Cubs one starting infielder, so Chicago might now be less willing to move Hoerner.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is viewed as the likeliest candidate to step in at third base in Paredes’ place, and while James Triantos is another highly-touted youngster who might be ready for the big leagues at second base, entrusting two infield jobs to rookies is a risk for the Cubs.

Getting Castillo for Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki would be a cleaner fit for Chicago in dealing from its outfield depth, but the Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles slated for starting jobs.  The M’s have Luke Raley set for at least part-time duty at first base and Mitch Haniger penciled in at DH, as well.  This all being said, the Mariners have such a broad need for hitting that it certainly isn’t beyond Dipoto to target a big outfield bat and then get creative in either fitting that bat into the lineup, or perhaps trying to deal Raley or Haniger to land the infield help Seattle more clearly needs.

Installing Castillo alongside Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and the newly-signed Matthew Boyd would suddenly give the Cubs one of the more appealing rotations in baseball.  Plenty more pitching would be on hand as well, since acquiring Castillo would turn fifth-starter candidates Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or top prospect Cade Horton into depth arms.  Speculatively speaking, one of these younger depth arms could also be sent to Seattle in a hypothetical Castillo trade, to give the Mariners a ready-made replacement for the new vacancy in their rotation.

Mariners Seeking Right-Handed, Veteran First Baseman

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It’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Mariners, who have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have been linked to trade candidates like Cody Bellinger, Alec Bohm, and Nico Hoerner, and are reportedly listening to offers for Luis Castillo, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto came away from the Winter Meetings without pulling off any swaps either.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

Latest On Yankees, Christian Walker

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The Yankees’ interest in Christian Walker was initially reported on last month, but it wasn’t until Juan Soto signed with the Mets that the Yankees were seemingly able to devote more attention to other position-player targets.  The change of focus apparently happened pretty quickly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees “renewed contract discussions” with Walker’s camp on Sunday evening, which was the same time that news broke of Soto’s record $765MM contract.

While the pitching and hitting markets aren’t exactly the same, the Bombers’ eight-year, $218MM megadeal with Max Fried is easy evidence that New York has been able to quickly pivot into the rest of its target list with Soto off the board.  First base help and lineup help in general are both needs, and signing Walker would address both issues in one fell swoop.

Fried’s deal adds another wrinkle to the Yankees’ pursuit of Walker, or any other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024 and because Fried turned down the Braves’ QO, the Yankees had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in order to complete the signing.  Inking Walker to a deal would cost the Yankees another $1MM in int’l pool funds, as well as two more draft picks — their third- and sixth-highest selections.

As much of a hit this could be to New York’s 2025 draft plans, Brian Cashman’s front office might view it as a necessary cost in order to capitalize on the team’s contention window.  Fried adds another top-flight arm to pair with Gerrit Cole atop a deep Yankee rotation, Aaron Judge is still arguably the best hitter in the sport, Giancarlo Stanton has a bounce-back 2024 season, and a younger core of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and (New York hopes) Jasson Dominguez can all contribute both now and in the future.

Walker would represent another big piece to this puzzle, bringing both elite first-base defense and a strong bat.  Walker is turning 34 in March but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, plus his age might be a feature and not a bug in terms of the Yankees’ needs.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said that a shorter-term contract might be more preferable for the Yankees than a longer deal for a younger first base option, which is why Morosi notes that Walker “is more of a priority for the Yankees than Pete Alonso would be.”

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