Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2023 at 6:57pm CDT

Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series. After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs. Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers. Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West. It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles. All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014. Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team. The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons. The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round. The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004. Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club. A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series. Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff. Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title. With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers. The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth. But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play. After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003. A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Coaching Notes: Guardians, Albernaz, Giants, Yankees, Casey, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2023 at 4:46pm CDT

The Guardians will interview Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz about their upcoming managerial vacancy, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Terry Francona may officially announce his retirement as Cleveland’s skipper as early as tonight, so the Guardians are already lining up what is expected to be a long list of possible replacements.

Albernaz (who turns 41 later this month) has spent the last four seasons on the Giants’ coaching staff. A longtime catcher in the Rays’ and Tigers’ farm systems from 2006-14, Albernaz then became a coach, field coordinator, and manager for Tampa Bay at the minor league level. His experience as a manager consists of a partial season with the Rays’ short-season A-ball affiliate in 2017, and then a full year with the Rays’ high-A affiliate in 2018.

Slusser notes that the Giants might interview Albernaz for their own managerial opening, and interim manager Kai Correa and third base coach Mark Hallberg could also be considered. Since a managerial change usually begets changes on the coaching staff, Slusser feels teams could try to make some hires away from San Francisco, with pitching coach Andrew Bailey reportedly on the Yankees’ radar. There hasn’t been any indication that New York pitching coach Matt Blake could be in danger of losing his job, so it isn’t known exactly what role the Yankees might have in mind for Bailey.

More on other possible coaching moves from around baseball…

Sticking with the Yankees, hitting coach Sean Casey told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce that he has been asked to return in 2024, though he first had to discuss matters with his family before deciding one way or the other. Casey took over the hitting coach job at midseason on essentially a 1.5-year contract, with an understanding that the two sides might re-evaluate things after the season. While the Yankees’ lack of batting prowess has been an issue before and after Casey’s hiring, he has won some immediate support — Aaron Judge praised Casey’s work, while both GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone have asked Casey to keep coaching. Joyce observes that Cashman’s support of Casey might indicate that Boone will also be returning as manager, since Boone and Casey are good friends. [UPDATE: Speaking with The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and other reporters, Casey said that he hasn’t received a former offer to return next season.}
White Sox manager Pedro Grifol implied that some changes are coming to his coaching staff, though was short on details with the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen (X link) and other reporters because “it’s a very sensitive issue. We talk about the staff, we talk about people who have been in the game a long, long time. Unfortunately, this is a game that’s predicated on wins and losses.” Like Grifol himself, several members of the staff are finishing their first season with the White Sox, including bench coach Charlie Montoyo, third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, hitting coach Jose Castro. It isn’t known if any of these specific coaches might be in jeopardy, or if the Sox are looking at some of the longer-standing holdovers. [UPDATE: assistant pitching coach Curt Hasler will be reassigned to a role in the minor league system, James Fegan of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.]

Tim Wakefield Passes Away

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2023 at 3:16pm CDT

Former Red Sox and Pirates knuckleballer Tim Wakefield passed away today at age 57. Wakefield pitched in 19 MLB seasons from 1992-2011, beginning his career in the Pittsburgh organization before moving onto a 17-year run with the Sox.

In an official statement from the Red Sox, club president/CEO Sam Kennedy said “It’s a rare occurrence for a two-time World Series Champion’s extraordinary personality to shine even brighter than their illustrious career. Tim was undeniably an exceptional pitcher, but what truly set him apart was the ease with which he connected with people. He was an extraordinary pitcher, an incredible broadcaster, and someone who exemplified every humanitarian quality in the dictionary. I will miss my friend more than anything and can only aspire to live as genuinely and honorably as he did.”

The Pirates also paid tribute, saying “Tim began his Major League career with the Pirates and was a part of our baseball family for six years. He made his big league debut in 1992 and was a key addition to the pitching staff that helped propel the team to its third consecutive Postseason appearance. Off the field, Tim always devoted his time to make an impact on others within the Pittsburgh community. He was a great man who will be dearly missed. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family at this difficult time.”

Many more testimonials have poured in from across social media from Wakefield’s many former teammates, colleagues, friends, and fans, in a sign of just how beloved a figure Wakefield was to an entire baseball generation, particularly in Boston. Wakefield was closely involved with numerous charities and non-profit groups, and was recognized for these off-the-field endeavors by Major League Baseball as the 2010 winner of the Roberto Clemente Award.

Fans are already very familiar with Wakefield’s work on the mound, as his use of the knuckleball made him stand out from the moment he made his MLB debut with the Pirates in 1992. In fact, Wakefield’s entire rookie year was a triumph, as he posted a 2.15 ERA over 92 innings in the regular season, and then threw a pair of complete-game wins for Pittsburgh in the NLCS.

However, the vagaries of the knuckleball didn’t lead to consistent success, as Wakefield struggled in 1993 and didn’t pitch at all in the majors in 1994. Released by the Pirates in April 1995, it looked like Wakefield might’ve been a flash in pan, until he caught on with the Red Sox and rediscovered his form. Wakefield finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting in 1995, which kicked off his 17-year run in Boston with a bang.

No pitcher in Red Sox history threw more innings (3006) or started more games (430) than Wakefield, who became a fixture of the team’s rotation. Never the ace of the staff, Wakefield sometimes wasn’t even a starter at all, moving into a swingman or long relief role at times, and he even had a stretch as Boston’s closer in 1999. Again owing to the difficulties of fully harnessing a knuckleball, Wakefield’s numbers had plenty of ebbs and flows, though he capably filled in whenever the Red Sox had a need to fill in the rotation or bullpen.

As such, Wakefield took part in some of the most memorable moments in Red Sox history, both for good and bad. He allowed Aaron Boone’s walkoff home run in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, yet got some revenge on the Yankees the very next year, tossing three shutout innings and earning the win in Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. Wakefield won World Series rings for helping the curse-breaking 2004 Red Sox and 2007 Sox win championships.

Wakefield posted a 4.41 ERA and a 200-180 record over his 3226 1/3 career innings, along with 2156 strikeouts. The icon of durability pitched until he was 45 years old, facing (who else) the Yankees in his final game on September 25, 2011.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Wakefield’s family and many loved ones.

Mets Place Brandon Nimmo On 10-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 1:45pm CDT

Brandon Nimmo’s 2023 season is over, as the Mets placed the outfielder on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder sprain. The placement is retroactive to September 29, and catcher Michael Perez was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding roster move.

Manager Buck Showalter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (X links) and other reporters that Nimmo’s injury is related to his AC joint. An MRI didn’t reveal any damage to the rotator cuff, so it doesn’t appear to be a particularly serious issue or anything that would hamper Nimmo’s readiness for Spring Training. Nimmo even told the Athletic’s Tim Britton and other media that he would’ve kept playing if the Mets had still been in playoff contention, and that he should need only 10-14 days to recovery.

Injuries have often plagued Nimmo during his career, yet he followed up a career-best 151 games and 672 plate appearances in 2022 by narrowly topping both marks in 2023, playing 152 games and making 682 trips to the plate. Nimmo his .274/.363/.466 with a career-high 24 home runs this year, with a 130 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR.

While the Mets’ season as a whole was a disappointment, Nimmo was a bright spot, and his continued good health provides some extra relief given his long-term importance to the team. New York re-signed Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM free agent deal last winter, which outpaced even the most optimistic projections for a player whose injury history (though not his production when healthy) was such a question mark. It’s obviously too early to call the signing a clear win just yet, but Nimmo’s continued strong play beyond his contract year is a good sign that he can be a big part of what the Mets hope will be an eventual return to contention.

Phillies Place Dylan Covey On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 12:57pm CDT

The Phillies announced four roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Dylan Covey was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 28) due to lower back pain. Infielder Rodolfo Castro was also optioned to the club’s Spring Training complex now that the minor league season is over, while right-hander Luis Ortiz and utilityman Weston Wilson were called up from Triple-A to fill the two open spots on the active roster.

Covey is now ineligible to return until at least October 12, so he wouldn’t be available for a playoff roster unless the Phillies reached the NLCS. Even in that best-case scenario, the Phillies might not prefer to activate a pitcher coming off an extended layoff, and Covey might have been something of a borderline candidate to make the postseason roster even if healthy.

Regardless of the unfortunate ending, 2023 has still been Covey’s most successful season in the big leagues. He posted a 6.57 ERA over 264 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2017-20 before heading to the Chinese Professional Baseball League for two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys. Covey pitched well enough to attract the attention of North America, and he inked a minor league deal with the Dodgers that resulted in a single MLB game in Dodger Blue.

Covey was designated for assignment after that lone game in May but quickly claimed off waivers by the Phillies. Powered by a 54.3% grounder rate and a lot of soft contact, Covey has a 3.69 ERA over 39 innings with Philadelphia, posting some quality bottom-line results despite a very modest 15.7% strikeout rate. Even his ERA is somewhat skewed by Covey’s lone start with the Phillies, as he lasted just two-thirds of an inning while allowing five earned runs. In 42 1/3 other innings as a reliever in 2023, Covey’s ERA is 2.76.

Orioles Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 12:19pm CDT

The Orioles announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment. Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was called up from Triple-A to take Lopez’s spot on the active roster.

Baltimore claimed Lopez off waivers from the Marlins at the start of September, and Lopez posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 1/3 innings of work in the orange-and-black. While Lopez had a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate over his brief time with the O’s, he also allowed four home runs, sending his ERA skyrocketing. Lopez was ineligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1, and since he was looking like a clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Orioles look to have started his path to free agency a little early. In all likelihood, Lopez will clear waivers and then be released, unless a team wants to take a quick evaluation before the offseason officially begins.

Lopez has a 5.53 ERA over 478 1/3 innings in the majors, appearing with five different teams over an eight-season career that began in 2015. The clear highlight of Lopez’s career came during his first stint with the Orioles, when his exceptional first-half performance earned him a spot on the 2022 All-Star team. The O’s were in postseason contention at last year’s trade deadline, but the team opted to sell high on Lopez by dealing him to the Twins for a four-player package that included Yennier Cano (an All-Star himself in 2023) and left-hander Cade Povich, arguably Baltimore’s top current pitching prospect.

It was a wise move on the Orioles’ part, as Lopez immediately started to regress in Minnesota. Those struggles deepened in 2023, as Lopez posted a 6.12 ERA over 57 1/3 combined innings with the Twins, Marlins, and Orioles. Minnesota dealt Lopez to Miami at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro in something of a mutual change-of-scenery deal for both relievers, though neither got on track on a new team. (By coincidence, the Twins just released Floro yesterday.)

Lopez earned $3.625MM in 2023, and would be in line for some kind of minimal raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. The 30-year-old may have to settle for a minor league deal this winter, in the wake of such a disappointing season.

NL West Notes: Melvin, Haniger, Musgrove, Rojas

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 12:04pm CDT

With the Giants looking for a new manager and Bob Melvin’s future with the Padres perhaps in question, there has already been speculation that the two situations could be simultaneously resolved by Melvin leaving San Diego to take over the Giants’ dugout. Melvin is both from the Bay Area and is both a former Giants player (1986-88) and A’s manager (2011-21). It was during that stint in Oakland that Melvin worked with Farhan Zaidi, when the Giants’ current president of baseball operations was a member of the Athletics’ front office.

Melvin is under contract for the 2024 season, so the Padres would have to fire the skipper to allow him to change jobs. While there have been plenty of rumblings that Melvin might be replaced, the possibility that he might immediately join a division rival could complicate the situation for the Padres, and they might explore the possibility of some kind of trade if the Giants did have interest in hiring the veteran manager. A meeting of Padres officials is set to take place Monday, so some kind of resolution to Melvin’s status in San Diego could possibly be coming pretty quickly.

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Azolay, Hoerner, Duarte

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 9:13am CDT

Adam Wainwright’s 200th career win (from seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers on September 18) has been confirmed as the last pitching appearance of the right-hander’s outstanding career, but Wainwright stepped up to the plate one final time in yesterday’s 19-2 Cardinals loss to the Reds. With the game already out of hand by the sixth inning, Wainwright pinch-hit for DH Luken Baker, and grounded out to second to conclude the 847th plate appearance of his career.

There was a loose plan in place to give Wainwright at least one PA during the final series of his career, though with the Reds still alive in the playoff race, the Cardinals weren’t going to do anything to do impact the integrity of the game just for the sake of a ceremonial at-bat. However, the lopsided score Friday provided an opportunity for Wainwright to hit for what will likely be the final time, barring another blowout result in the next two games or if the Reds are officially eliminated from contention. Wainwright has a .194/.221/.293 slash line and 10 homers during his career.

Twins Release Dylan Floro

By Mark Polishuk | September 30, 2023 at 7:49am CDT

The Twins released right-hander Dylan Floro, according to the club’s official transactions page. Floro was designated for assignment earlier this week, and it isn’t yet known if the Twins just released Floro entirely, or if he rejected an outright assignment off Minnesota’s active roster.

Regardless, the outcome is the same for the veteran reliever, who will now hit free agency and look to turn the page on a disappointing 2023. Floro posted a 4.76 ERA over 56 2/3 innings with the Marlins and Twins, as a trade deadline move to Minnesota didn’t help the righty turn things around. Miami dealt Floro for another struggling pitcher in Jorge Lopez, and the Marlins have also since parted ways with their end of the trade, as Lopez was put on waivers and claimed by the Orioles at the start of September.

While Lopez’s overall numbers have been lackluster, Floro’s performance is harder to parse, as the 32-year-old has a case as one of the unluckier players of the 2023 season. Floro’s inflated ERA could simply be attributed to an enormous .401 BABIP, which is particularly lethal for a pitcher who relies so heavily on grounders — Floro has a 51.7% career groundball rate, including a 54.4% mark this year.

Playing for two lackluster defensive teams like Minnesota and Miami certainly didn’t help in this regard, and Floro’s defense-independent numbers (2.95 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and a 3.34 SIERA) indicate that he deserved a much better fate. Floro’s 23.4% strikeout rate was middling, but his walk and hard-hit ball rates were both well above average, and his 2.9% barrel rate was one of the best of any pitcher in baseball. Floro only allowed three home runs over his 56 2/3 frames, continuing his career-long knack for keeping the ball in the park.

Between these metrics and the 2.96 ERA he posted over 252 2/3 innings from 2018-22, Floro will surely get plenty of looks in free agency, and he is one of the more intriguing bounce-back candidates on the open market. Since this obviously isn’t the platform season Floro wanted heading into free agency, it seems likely that he’ll aim for a one-year contract in the hopes of re-establishing himself for a bigger payday in the 2024-25 offseason. Floro’s relative lack of strikeouts might put something of a ceiling on his earning power even in the best of times, yet his solid track record (when he has even a modicum of batted-ball luck) is hard to ignore.

NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2023 at 2:24pm CDT

Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media. Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

Nevertheless, Contreras will hopefully soon be healed up from both his wrist issue and other injuries, as Marmol mentioned that the catcher had also been playing through nagging soreness in his right hand and left wrist. The health problems didn’t appear to hamper Contreras’ bat (.264/.358/.467 with 20 homers in 495 plate appearances), but they perhaps impacted his defense, as his framing and blocking numbers were both below average and he received a career-low -9 total as per the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

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