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Tommy Pham

Reds Sign Tommy Pham

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TODAY: The Reds have officially announced Pham’s signing.  Tejay Antone (who underwent Tommy John surgery in August) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster room.

March 24: Pham is guaranteed $7.5MM on the deal, coming in the form of a $6MM salary and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, Nightengale further reports.

March 23: The Reds are in agreement with outfielder Tommy Pham on a one-year deal, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The deal, which contains a mutual option for 2023, is pending a physical. Financial terms have not been disclosed. Pham is a client of Vayner Sports.

Pham was one of the game’s more underrated players early in his career with the Cardinals and Rays. Between 2017-19, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.381/.475 line while averaging nearly 22 home runs and stolen bases apiece per season. Pham routinely posted high-end exit velocities and walk rates while making a decent amount of contact. A high ground-ball tendency kept him from emerging as an elite power threat, but he was a well-rounded and highly productive offensive player.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Tampa Bay traded Pham and Jake Cronenworth to the Padres in a deal that sent Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Edwards back to the Rays. While Pham was the headliner of the swap from the Friars’ perspective, Cronenworth proved to be the more valuable pickup. Pham struggled to a .211/.312/.312 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the only below-average offensive showing of his career. Last year’s .229/.340/.383 slash was a tick above average, by measure of wRC+, but it still came up well shy of his early-career numbers.

Pham, who didn’t emerge as a regular until his age-29 campaign, turned 34 earlier this month. It’s certainly possible his recent downturn is attributable to aging, but it’s worth noting he dealt with a few health issues in San Diego that probably also had a deleterious effect on his performance. Pham missed a month in 2020 after fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand, an injury that could certainly have sapped some of his power. Last offseason, he was the victim of a life-threatening stabbing attack that required 200 stitches to close a wound in his back.

Remarkably, Pham returned by Opening Day and didn’t spend any time on the injured list. Yet he was open about how the incident affected his offseason routine, and it’s possible he was never fully healthy in 2021. Pham actually performed much better in the first half of the year than he did in the second — he didn’t merely start slowly while recovering from the stabbing  — but it’d be understandable if he weren’t up to the physical grind of a 162-game season coming off the prior winter’s tribulations.

Pham’s dip in results has been attributable to what has happened on balls in play. Last season’s 13.9% walk rate remained excellent, while his 22.8% strikeout percentage is right in line with his career marks. Pham still made plenty of authoritative contact. His 47.6% hard contact rate and 94.9 MPH average exit velocity on balls hit in the air were both definitively better than average. The results didn’t align with those batted ball numbers, though, as Pham saw a career-low 13.5% of his fly balls clear the fences.

San Diego’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark didn’t seem to do the veteran outfielder any favors. Pham’s .412 weighted on-base average on fly balls was far outstripped by his .562 “expected” weighted on-base on those batted balls, per Statcast. A few more of those flies should clear the fences at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, perhaps enabling Pham to post numbers closer to his career norms.

That makes him a sensible buy-low target, although the signing comes in the broader context of a strange offseason for the Reds. Much of the winter was focused on the club’s cost-cutting efforts. They parted ways with Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhart, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and seemingly made no effort to retain free agent Nick Castellanos. Those all thinned out a roster that was marginally above-average (83-79 with a +26 run differential) last season.

That’ll make it difficult to make a serious run at contention in 2022, but Cincinnati has made a few short-term moves in recent days. They acquired Mike Minor from the Royals and signed each of Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland, building out the margins of the roster. Pham may be the most impactful of those moves, but competing this year while slashing costs still looks to be a difficult needle for general manager Nick Krall and his staff to thread.

Pham figures to replace Winker as the primary left fielder. Jake Fraley, whom the Reds acquired from the Mariners in the Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade, is better suited for left but could see some action in center field. Tyler Naquin will probably move from center to right after rating poorly defensively, leaving Fraley, Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama as the options in center. That’s not an ideal group, but there weren’t many capable everyday center fielders available in free agency or trade this offseason. Pham isn’t a perfect positional fit, but installing his bat into the lineup should help an offense that lost two of last season’s top three hitters.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tommy Pham Open To Playing First Base

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Tommy Pham is one of the many free agents still without a contract for 2022, and the lockout has only added to the uncertainty facing Pham’s market following a pair of underwhelming seasons with the Padres.  However, Pham is looking to increase his positional value, with The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writing that the veteran outfielder is “open to playing first base if needed.”

Specifically, Pham said he would be interested in playing first base in a second stint with the Rays, as Pham played in Tampa during the 2018-19 seasons.  The Rays are known to be looking for a right-handed hitting first base option, and a reunion with Pham would be a creative way of addressing that need.  It stands to reason that if Pham is willing to take on a new position with the Rays, he is also willing to pick up a first base glove with other contenders who might come calling, and perhaps non-contenders as well.

Pham took a frank view of his pending free agency last September, saying that “I didn’t play well enough” in 2021 and that he was “fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”  Pham was still a slightly above-average hitter in the view of wRC+ (102) and OPS+ (103), as he batted .229/.340/.383 with 15 home runs over 561 plate appearances with San Diego.  That kind of production and playing time is itself an impressive accomplishment considering that Pham was coming off a terrifying stabbing incident in October 2020 that threatened his life.

A case can be made that Pham was pretty unlucky at the plate last year, considering that his .354 xwOBA was significantly higher than his .318 wOBA.  Between that glaring differential and his still solid hard-contact numbers, Pham could well be a bounce-back candidate to watch in 2022.  In fact, he seems exactly like the type of relatively inexpensive veteran the Rays would traditionally target in free agency, as the team would bet that a healthy Pham could match or better the production of a player with a heftier price tag.

Pham played 37 games at shortstop in his very first season of pro ball, way back in 2006 with the Cardinals’ rookie ball affiliate.  Since then, he has exclusively played in the outfield, and mostly in left field since the start of the 2019 season.  Among the publicly available statistics for measuring defense, the Outs Above Average metric has been very down (-17) on Pham’s left field glovework over the last three seasons, while UZR/150 (-1.1) and Defensive Runs Saved (-3.3) are at least passable, if trending downward.

With this in mind, a change in positions might be a logical pivot for a veteran player looking to extend his career.  Pham turns 34 in March, and he’d need a big year at the plate (no matter the position) to line himself up for a nice multi-year contract next winter, if he does indeed opt for just a one-year contract during this trip to the open market.  While health issues have hampered Pham over the last two years, he isn’t far removed from a very strong five-year stretch of hitting .277/.373/.472 over 2110 PA with the Cardinals and Rays from 2015-19.

Free Agent Notes: Baez, Pham, Mariners

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The Mets’ interest in re-signing Javier Baez reportedly didn’t end with the club’s agreement with Eduardo Escobar yesterday, yet Baez and the Mets are still “apart on price” in contract talks, according to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).  With Starling Marte and Mark Canha also joining the roster, it would seem as though the Mets are already bolstering the lineup in the event that Baez doesn’t return, and their current focus on pitching upgrades could at least temporarily put an end to their efforts to land Baez or any other position players.

Timing could be an issue with Baez, as there has been speculation that he would prefer to get his next contract finalized before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1.  (Martino is among those who believes Baez will indeed sign prior to that date.)  If the gap between Baez and the Mets is too large to overcome in the next few days, that could open the door for one of the other teams known to be interested in the shortstop’s services.  The Tigers and Red Sox have been linked to Baez, with the Mariners, Rangers, and Yankees somewhat more speculatively attached to Baez via their interest in the shortstop market as a whole.

More on other free agent situations around baseball….

  • Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said earlier this month that his club had interest in re-signing Tommy Pham, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that the Padres are indeed still considering Pham for their left field vacancy.  After subpar performance in his first two years in San Diego, Pham wouldn’t be too expensive, which Lin notes is still a consideration for a team trying to manage its payroll under the luxury tax threshold if possible.  Today’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners cleared some projected salary off the books, and if the Padres do succeed in unloading Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer’s contracts, that will ease an even more substantial amount of the financial burden from Preller’s maneuverings.
  • Speaking of the Mariners, the Frazier trade represents Seattle’s first big strike of the offseason, though the club has been rumored in connection with multiple prominent free agents.  Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other reporters that the Mariners currently offers on the table to two free agents, with Dipoto noting that one of the two players is “notable.”  Reading between the lines, it would seem as if Dipoto was implying that one of the two offers was a significant multi-year pact, while the other offer may have been a shorter-term, less-expensive deal.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Lamet, Pham

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The Padres are planning to have a healthy Mike Clevinger ready for Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Shaun O’Neill. The 30-year-old made just four starts in the regular season after being acquired from the Guardians midway through the 2020 season. Clevinger underwent his second Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Clevinger’s absence was one reason President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller went out and acquired Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish last winter, though even those additions ended up being insufficient as injuries took their toll on the Friars.

Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay on the hill certainly played a part, as the right-hander could not stay healthy enough to hold a rotation spot. He came off the injured list on April 21st, but made just one appearance before landing back on the shelf. He later missed another 66 days with forearm inflammation. He ended up moving to the bullpen, making 11 appearances in relief and finished with a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP across 47 innings. Lamet’s role in 2022 will be undecided until the spring, notes O’Neill.

They’re open to re-signing Tommy Pham, per Preller, but it’s going to be a numbers game now. The 33-year-old put up 1.4 rWAR in 561 plate appearances, leaving room for an upgrade, should the Padres find the right player. Pham’s contributions were suitable, though a .229/.340/.383 at the plate leaves much to be desired.

The Padres have some flexibility in the outfielder corners, where Will Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Adam Frazier could all see time next season. Ideally, however, only one of those three lines up at an opening day starter. There are plenty of corner outfielders available in free agency, however, so the Padres don’t have to rush a decision on Pham. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, and Avisail Garcia are just some of the corner outfielders available, as well as more versatile options like Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor.

Tommy Pham On Injuries, Free Agency

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Tommy Pham’s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.

Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.

In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.

“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”

Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.

Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”

From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.

It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.

Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.

“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”

[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]

That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.

Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.

Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.

Injury Notes: Pham, Cueto, Flores, Yaz, Springer

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Tommy Pham came up limping after grounding out in the second inning of tonight’s Padres game in Los Angeles, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (via Twitter). Pham stopped running about halfway down the baseline, clearly uncomfortable. Pham’s reaction, while muted, also suggested that he knew something was off as he reached for his ankle. An Achilles injury is the fear, but the injury appears to be left calf tightness, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). As for tonight, Jorge Mateo took over in left for Pham. Elsewhere…

  • Johnny Cueto is likely to miss a third start before returning from the injured list, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Cueto was placed on the injured list ten days ago with a grade 1 lat strain. The expectation at the time was that he would miss two starts, so it sounds like he’ll miss that target. That said, there was no indication that the injury was any more severe than originally diagnosed. Cueto should still be able to return shortly. In the meantime, Logan Webb will get at least one more turn in the rotation. Complicating matters in a good way for the Giants, Webb went seven scoreless against the Marlins today.
  • Also in San Francisco, Wilmer Flores missed today’s ballgame because he was under the weather, but after receiving fluids he’s on the mend. Mike Yastrzemski, meanwhile, was taken out of the game because of left oblique tightness, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (via Twitter). Because of their short bench, don’t be surprised if Yaz lands on the injured list tomorrow, but the team gave no indication one way or the other.
  • Blue Jays fans may finally get the chance to see offseason acquisition George Springer this week. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sports.net.ca (via Twitter), manager Charlie Montoyo said, ““I’m optimistic that Springer’s got a good chance on Tuesday.” Springer’s return still hinges on his a final check-up, but the club hopes the 31-year-old will be in the lineup to face Max Scherzer in Dunedin on Tuesday.

Health Notes: Pham, File, Rodriguez, Reyes

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Padres outfielder Tommy Pham estimates he’s at 80% strength after he was stabbed in the lower back last October, he told reporters (including Dennis Lin of the Athletic and Bob Nightengale of USA Today). The 32-year-old opened up about the incident, telling reporters he initially believed he would never play again. Scarier still, Pham says doctors later told him he could have been killed or paralyzed by his wound, which ultimately required more than 200 stitches to close, per Nightengale. Fortunately, he’s on the path to recovery and played in the Padres’ first spring training game today, although he says he’s still not at his previous weight-lifting capabilities. In addition to the stabbing, Pham underwent an offseason surgery to correct a wrist issue, but it seems he’s recovered from that procedure.

More injury-related situations around the game:

  • Brewers right-handed pitching prospect Dylan File underwent surgery to repair a stress fracture in his throwing elbow, team personnel told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The surgery is expected to keep him out of action until at least the middle of June. File was added to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster over the offseason. Given his recovery timetable, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Brewers place him on the 60-day injured list if a need for a 40-man spot arises in the coming weeks.
  • Rangers reliever Joely Rodríguez is “a couple of weeks behind” schedule of the team’s other relievers, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The southpaw was bothered by an offseason ankle issue; he’s now pain-free, but the injury delayed his ramp-up before spring training. It remains to be seen if he’ll have enough time to build up before Opening Day. Rodríguez was a bright spot in limited time with Texas last season, striking out seventeen while issuing five walks across 12.2 innings of three-run ball.
  • The Angels announced that pitching prospect Packy Naughton has a Grade 1 flexor pronator strain, per Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be out of action for three to five weeks. There was some concern for the left-hander after an MRI revealed a UCL sprain yesterday but it seems he’ll avoid the worst case scenario. Naughton was acquired from the Reds in advance of last summer’s trade deadline and could be a big league option for Los Angeles at some point in 2021.
  • Another of the Angels’ acquisitions at the 2020 trade deadline, right-hander Gerardo Reyes, left this afternoon’s spring training contest with discomfort in his throwing elbow, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old reliever came over from the Padres in the Jason Castro deal. Reyes has a 7.62 ERA/3.38 SIERA over 26 MLB innings.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Padres Will Tender Tommy Pham

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Tommy Pham will be tendered a contract by the Padres prior to today’s 7pm CT deadline, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (Twitter link).  The Padres’ decision ends months of speculation that Pham could be non-tendered a way of saving a projected arbitration salary of roughly $8MM for the 2021 season.

It was a tumultuous first season for Pham in San Diego after being acquired (along with Jake Cronenworth) as part of a trade with the Rays last offseason — a deal made in part so Tampa Bay could escape Pham’s escalating arbitration price tag.  Pham hit only .211/.312/.312 over 125 plate appearances and missed time in September due to a fractured left hamate bone.  He was able to return in time for the postseason, and delivered a big performance (1.077 OPS in 13 PA) during the Padres’ wild card series victory over the Cardinals.

Since the season ended, Pham was stabbed in the lower back after an incident in a parking lot, though he thankfully escaped with seemingly only minor injuries.  Pham also underwent surgery on his left wrist at some point in the offseason.

With all of these factors in mind, the Padres still obviously feel comfortable enough in Pham’s ability to bounce back that the team was comfortable in offering him another contract.  Pham, after all, posted outstanding numbers (.284/.381/.475 with 65 homers) over 1754 plate appearances with the Cardinals and Rays from 2017-19, so there’s plenty of evidence that a healthy Pham can provide even more hitting depth within an already strong Padres lineup.

Tommy Pham Recovering From Wrist Surgery

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Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery to repair a a tear of the triangular fibrocartilage complex in his left wrist at some point in the past couple of months, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The specific timing of the procedure remains unclear. The Padres did not announce the surgery at the time it was performed.

Pham, according to Rosenthal, is already lifting weights but has yet to swing a bat since undergoing this latest surgery. He had surgery on the same wrist back in August after suffering a fractured hamate bone when he was hit by a pitch, and he also underwent surgery after a frightening incident in early October wherein Pham was stabbed in the lower back. The Padres announced at the time that Pham was in “good condition” following that surgery, and Pham now tells Rosenthal that this latest wrist procedure has improved his grip strength.

A third surgery and, more importantly, Pham’s recovery from said procedure are all the more noteworthy given that the 32-year-old outfielder is up for arbitration for the final time this offseason. The Padres have until tomorrow evening to determine whether they’ll tender a contract to Pham, whom they acquired alongside Jake Cronenworth last winter in a trade that sent Hunter Renfroe, top prospect Xavier Edwards and minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to the Rays.

Pham struggled to the worst performance of his career in San Diego, slashing just .211/.312/.312 through 125 plate appearances. Of course, if the current wrist issue was bothering him during the season and impacting his grip strength, that would of course explain the downturn at the plate — at least to some extent. Pham’s track record is quite strong — evidenced by a .284/.381/.475 slash in 410 games from 2017-19 — and a healthy Pham would make for an appealing bounceback candidate.

However, that same track record calls Pham’s future with the Padres into question, as it’s also the reason that he earned $7.9MM in arbitration this past season. Pham could see a nominal uptick from that rate in the arb process, and he would at least be a candidate to simply repeat that salary in 2021. Given the uncertainty surrounding his health, however, he stands out as a potential non-tender candidate prior. If the Padres don’t plan to tender a contract to Pham, then they’ve likely already been shopping him in recent days and will continue to do so in the hours leading up to tomorrow night’s deadline.

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