Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel had been set to sign with the Dodgers once the 2025 international signing period opened on January 15, but Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Morel will now be signing with the Pirates for a bonus worth close to $1.8MM.  This represents roughly twice the amount of money Morel would’ve received from Los Angeles.

There isn’t anything improper about such a transaction, as none of these signings are official until pen is put to paper on January 15.  That said, teams, prospects, and the prospects’ unofficial advisors/trainers known as “buscones” often have these deals lined up far in advance of a player’s eligibility year.  The 2025 class features players who are at least 16 years old or will be turning 16 prior to September 1, yet many prospects are regularly linked to teams as early as age 13 or 14.

What makes the 2025 international signing class so unusual is the presence of Roki Sasaki, whose move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the big leagues at age 23 qualifies him as a member of the int’l market.  Waiting until age 25 would’ve allowed Sasaki to qualify as a free agent (within the boundaries of the MLB/NPB posting system) and thus put him in line for what likely would’ve been a hefty nine-figure contract a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but Sasaki has opted to bet on himself and get an early start to his big league career.

Sasaki is such a hugely sought-after prospect that it is expected that his future Major League team will surrender its entire international bonus pool to sign him.  It should be noted that money is obviously not the chief factor for Sasaki in picking his MLB franchise, but since this bonus will represent all of his official MLB earnings for the time being, it stands to reason that he will look to score a big payday within the constraints of the bonus pool system.

Since Sasaki won’t sign until after January 15, it has created quite the ripple effect on the international class as a whole.  As Badler puts it, “at least half a dozen teams that think they are still in the running to sign Sasaki.  That means at least 20 percent of the league has their 2025 international signing class in limbo.”

Morel isn’t considered one of the elite members of the 2025 class, as MLB Pipeline doesn’t have the shortstop listed within its top-50 ranking of the year’s top international prospects.  Yet because the Dodgers are viewed as one of the top candidates to sign Sasaki, Morel had no guarantee that his pre-arranged deal with L.A. would be honored, so he opted to sign with the Pirates instead.  Naturally, it probably also helped that Pittsburgh was willing to add $900K or so to Morel’s bonus figure.

It isn’t specified if the Pirates walked away from some deals of its own in order to sign Morel, or if they had enough leftover space in their own int’l bonus pool to fit Morel under their $6,908,600 pool limit.  Badler notes that some clubs left some money open within their pools specifically to capitalize on some prospects who might become available due to the Sasaki-related uncertainty.  “Some clubs are already scouting committed players with other teams,” Badler writes, with the trainers in turn taking the unusual step of getting their players ready for a fresh round of tryouts.

Some players have already received offers from other teams, so for the Dodgers and the other six clubs who have reportedly met with Sasaki in person, their continued interest in Sasaki represents a potential red flag for those seven teams’ 2025 international commitments.  The “worst-case scenario” for a team, as Badler notes, would be that “they hold off on their signings in the hopes of landing Sasaki, their top commits bolt elsewhere after Jan. 15, only for Sasaki to sign with a different team anyway.”  That could leave a few unlucky clubs without Sasaki, without much of their 2025 int’l pool, and with some damaged relationships amidst the buscone community for future dealings.

While the trainers might view 2025 as a unique circumstance due to the Sasaki situation, even if the door isn’t closed completely with certain teams who renege on handshake deals, it can’t help those teams’ chances of signing any star prospects these trainers might be handling in the future.  The biggest impact, of course, is on the 2025 prospects themselves, some of whom will find themselves without the life-changing bonus money their families have been counting on for years.  Some prospects like Morel will be fortunate enough to land larger bonuses, yet a significant number of teenage prospects will see their careers and lives altered in the fallout.