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The Opener: Bonus Pool Trades, Infield Market, Rotation Market

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Teams weighing trades of bonus pool money?

Yesterday, the Giants made two trades to pick up additional international bonus pool money. In doing so, they shipped out catcher Blake Sabol to the Red Sox and righty Will Kempner to the Marlins. More teams could follow suit in that regard, as both the Dodgers and Padres are in the market to add additional funds to their bonus pools amid their respective pursuits of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki. Those clubs aren’t likely to be alone in the looking to make deals involving bonus pool space. Sasaki’s presence on the market has caused the Dodgers to allow several committed players to look elsewhere, while the Padres have been holding off on finalizing deals in anticipation of Sasaki’s decision. The Dodgers, Friars and Jays have all held off on finalizing deals with international prospects as of yet, as have several other clubs. Even teams that aren’t finalists for Sasaki might be cagey with finalizing deals, knowing that they could have the ability to trade for some extra bonus space and scoop up a prospect who’d been gearing up to sign with L.A., San Diego or Toronto.

2. Potential movement on the infield market:

There’s been some movement on the infield market since the calendar flipped to January, kicked off by Josh Rojas signing with the White Sox on Jan. 2. Since then, Amed Rosario and Donovan Solano have landed deals in D.C. and Seattle, respectively, while Thairo Estrada finalized his December agreement to sign in Colorado. That movement has left relatively few bench players still available on the infield with Whit Merrifield, Jose Iglesias, and Paul DeJong among the most notable options available. Meanwhile, the infield market’s rumors have primarily been focused at the top of the market where there’s been plenty of buzz about the markets of both first basemen Pete Alonso and third basemen Alex Bregman in recent days. With rumors churning at the top of the market and a number of lower-level signings occurring in recent weeks, could more deals be on the horizon?

3. Will Sasaki spur movement in the rotation market?

Aside from an occasional one-year deal for a veteran arm like Justin Verlander or Charlie Morton, the rotation market has quieted in the aftermath of right-hander Corbin Burnes signing late last month. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana are among the quality veterans who still remain available in free agency. Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease have seen their names come up in trade rumors, but there’s been seemingly little movement on those markets in the New Year. One potential wrinkle in the market is Sasaki, particularly since the Padres could feel more comfortable dealing from the rotation were he to land in San Diego. Other clubs like the Mariners, Cubs, Yankees and Rangers were at least loosely involved in his market until recently and may have been holding off on significant decisions while waiting on a resolution to his free agency. Those clubs, now informed that they’re out of the running, will have to turn to alternative plans. With a decision looming from Sasaki, could the wider market start to move again in the coming days?

Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

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The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Jose Quintana 62.01% (2,027 votes)
Andrew Heaney 37.99% (1,242 votes)
Total Votes: 3,269

The Opener: International Free Agency, Sasaki, Burnes

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With less than a month until pitchers and catchers begin reporting for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. International signing period opens:

The 2025 signing period for international amateurs has begun and will remain open until December 15. Teams have set bonus pools ranging from $7,555,500 to $5,146,200 for the upcoming period that they can allocate however they see fit — including trading bonus allotments in $250K increments. (A team can only acquire a maximum of 60% of its originally allotted pool, however.) The most highly-regarded prospects in the class have had handshake agreements in place with MLB clubs for years before they were old enough to sign, so for many players at the top of the class their destination is already known. Among the top prospects available are Dominican shortstop Josuar Gonzalez (tied to the Giants), Venezuelan-American shortstop/outfielder Andrew Salas (tied to the Marlins), Dominican shortstop Elian Peña (tied to the Mets) and Cuban outfielder Kevin Alvarez (tied to the Astros).

2. Sasaki officially eligible to sign:

Of course, the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted by NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines last month, is a major disrupting force in the current international class. Sasaki, 23, is regarded as among the most talented pitchers in the world and has four years of NPB experience under his belt already. Unlike the typical teenage prospects that come to the majors through the international amateur system, Sasaki is viewed as big league ready and could be a front-of-the-rotation starter in year one. Whoever ultimately signs Sasaki will likely use most if not all of their bonus pool in order to do so, which could force their more traditional international prospects to look for deals elsewhere.

He recently narrowed down his potential landing spots to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays. A poll of MLBTR readers yesterday suggests that the majority of fans expect him to sign in L.A., with nearly 52% voting for the Dodgers. The Padres have received 33% of the vote at the time of writing. Toronto lags behind at 15%. While Sasaki is officially eligible to sign as of today, he could wait another few days in order to give teams the opportunity to trade for additional dollars in their bonus pool. Sasaki must sign by Jan. 23, when his posting window comes to a close.

3. Burnes presser today:

The Diamondbacks are set to formally introduce right-hander Corbin Burnes at a press conference scheduled for 1pm local time this afternoon. Burnes surprised the baseball world last month by signing a six-year, $210MM guarantee with Arizona after weeks of rumors connecting him to the Giants and Blue Jays. He was nearly universally ranked as the top pitcher available in free agency this winter (aside from, perhaps, Sasaki) and should give the Snakes one of the most formidable rotations in baseball, joining Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt (and perhaps Jordan Montgomery, if he’s not traded). In addition to Burnes himself, principal owner Ken Kendrick and GM Mike Hazen are both set to be on hand for today’s press conference.

Poll: Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?

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The 2025 international amateur signing period begins tomorrow. While that milestone is a bit of a footnote for many fans in the offseason calendar, this year is different thanks to the presence of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was posted for major league clubs by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines just after the Winter Meetings last month. As an NPB player coming to the majors before the age of 25, he’s considered an amateur despite his dominance over the course of four seasons in Japan.

The fact that Sasaki is coming to the majors through the system in place for international amateurs created a wide-open race for his services on paper. International amateurs can only sign minor league deals that are accompanied by signing bonuses from each team’s hard-capped international bonus pools. As such, clubs without substantial payrolls couldn’t be outbid by their large-market counterparts. More than 20 teams reportedly checked in with Sasaki when he was posted last month. He met with a number of teams in Los Angeles (where his agents at Wasserman are headquartered) before the holidays, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs. Now, with just over a week left in Sasaki’s posting window, a trio of finalists has emerged: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays.

That the Dodgers are a finalist for Sasaki’s services should surprise no one. After all, Sasaki is a player who wanted to compete at the highest level badly enough to come over to the major leagues early and in doing so chose to forfeit the opportunity to land a nine-figure deal. Given that competitiveness, joining the reigning World Series champions who haven’t missed the postseason since 2011 figures to hold obvious appeal. Aside from that, the Dodgers are perhaps the largest international brand in the sport, employing former NPB and KBO stars like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, now, Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. That global brand (and the potential for international endorsements that comes with it) could hold plenty of appeal for Sasaki given the fact that he’ll be signing a minor league contract.

All of that has made the Dodgers such an obvious fit for Sasaki’s services to many around the game that his agent, Joel Wolfe, felt compelled earlier this winter to deny rumors of a “handshake” deal with the Dodgers before Sasaki’s posting period had even begun. Despite this air of inevitability surrounding the Dodgers and Sasaki in the eyes of some fans and media members, however, there are two other finalists that each can offer a legitimate case for Sasaki’s services in their own right.

The Padres have received nearly as much attention as a likely co-favorite. Multiple reports have suggested that Sasaki has a strong relationship with veteran right-hander Yu Darvish, who has four seasons left on his deal in San Diego and would as such be available to serve as a mentor to Sasaki and guide him through his transition to the big leagues. San Diego, much like Los Angeles, also could benefit from being on the west coast with the associated mild climate and travel-related benefits that often appeal to NPB players. The Padres can also offer more money to Sasaki than the Dodgers; their bonus pool is $6,261,600 this year as compared to L.A.’s pool of just $5,146,200, though either club could trade for more bonus pool money in order to put together a more tempting offer for Sasaki.

Compared to the Dodgers and Padres, the Blue Jays appear to be a dark horse candidate. A connection between Sasaki and the club was first made just yesterday, when reporting surfaced that Sasaki had met with the club in Toronto. The Blue Jays have long sought to court top talents in free agency, including a pursuit of Ohtani last winter where they were generally acknowledged to have finished as the runner-up for the MVP’s services. Though the Blue Jays aren’t as well set-up for success as the Dodgers and Padres, having finished fifth in a crowded AL East just last year, Toronto could offer Sasaki the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in a way that more star-studded teams in L.A. and San Diego cannot — particularly if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ultimately signs elsewhere in free agency next winter. What’s more, the Blue Jays have the same $6,261,600 bonus pool the Padres have and therefore could outbid the Dodgers financially.

With just over a week left until the January 23 deadline by which Sasaki has to make a decision, where do MLBTR readers believe he’ll land? Will he hitch his wagon to the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles? Will he join his longtime friend and mentor Darvish in San Diego? Or will he surprise the baseball world and opt to make a name for himself in Toronto? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?
Los Angeles Dodgers 51.63% (11,589 votes)
San Diego Padres 32.87% (7,378 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 15.50% (3,480 votes)
Total Votes: 22,447

The Opener: Sasaki, Mariners, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Sasaki decision draws nearer:

Roki Sasaki’s market is now down to three suitors. The Dodgers and Padres, long regarded as the heavy favorites to sign the 23-year-old Japanese star, are among the final two teams standing — as most would’ve anticipated. That the Blue Jays stand as the third and final entrant in the bidding, however, registers as an unexpected outcome. Toronto ostensibly has a legitimate chance at this point; Sasaki visited the city and saw the Jays’ home facilities over the weekend. The right-hander’s camp began informing teams yesterday that they’d been eliminated from the running, with the Giants, Rangers, Yankees, Mets and Cubs all learning they would not be Sasaki’s eventual destination.

Landing Sasaki would be something of a coup for a Jays front office that has finished runner-up in so many notable free agent and trade pursuits overt the past two offseasons. He’d give the Jays  rotation depth they badly need at the moment, and do so with front-of-the-rotation upside and a minimal salary, of course. That’d leave more funds both for bringing in another prominent bat to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — whose extension status looms over the team as he approaches his final year before free agency.

2. What’s next for the Mariners?

Seattle’s desire to add infield help this winter has long been established, and yesterday they finally took a step toward that goal by signing veteran Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Solano, 37, has been one of the league’s most consistent part-time bats since 2019. Though he’s never totaled more than 450 plate appearances in a season, the veteran has posted a robust .294/.353/.413 (112 wRC+) over the past six seasons. That includes a wRC+ of 118 in 309 trips to the plate with the Padres this past season.

As the roster is currently constructed, Solano would be in line for frequent at-bats against right-handers at third base while spelling Luke Raley at first base against southpaws. However, the Mariners have been seeking multiple infielders this winter — ideally a pair of corner infielders to help round out the offense. Adding Solano at an affordable rate could allow the M’s to spend a bit more heavily at the hot corner, be it via free agency or the trade market. A major splash for Alex Bregman almost certainly isn’t happening, but the Mariners reportedly had around $15-16MM to spend prior to adding Solano at $3.5MM.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With arbitration figures exchanged and Spring Training less than a month away, we’re nearing the point where the baseball offseason starts to give way to preseason excitement even as major free agents remain unsigned and team needs remain unfulfilled. Whether you have questions about what’s left for your team to do this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson

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The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.

Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.

The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.

Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.

While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.

If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
David Robertson 64.76% (2,137 votes)
Kenley Jansen 35.24% (1,163 votes)
Total Votes: 3,300

The Opener: Kittredge, Padres, Rangers

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With less a month until pitchers and catchers begin reporting for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Kittredge to undergo physical:

Last week, the Orioles agreed to a one-year deal with right-hander Andrew Kittredge that guarantees the righty $10MM. According to Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, Kittredge is set to undergo a physical today. It’s the final box to check before the deal can be made official. Physical exams rarely hold up deals from coming together, though it certainly happens. The Orioles, dating back to prior ownership and front office regimes, have a reputation for altering deals or backing out of them entirely due to concerns regarding a player’s physical. A new front office and owner hasn’t necessarily changed that, as the O’s reportedly backed out of an agreement with right-hander Jeff Hoffman last week due to an issue with his physical, leading Hoffman to sign with the Blue Jays instead. If Kittredge’s physical goes over without issue, the Orioles will need to clear a 40-man roster spot to accommodate his signing.

2. How will the Padres clear salary?

While Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is typically among the most active executives in the game, things have been extremely quiet for San Diego this winter. They’ve signed zero free agents to major league deals and have remained equally quiet on the trade market. That lack of activity has been caused by a payroll crunch, as reporting has suggested the club hopes to not only duck under the luxury tax in 2025 but also end the offseason with a payroll lower than the $208MM RosterResource currently projects. That’s led to plenty of discussion of both Dylan Cease and Luis Arráez in the rumor mill this winter. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported over the weekend that the club prefers to hold onto Arraez and has at least entertained interest in closer Robert Suarez. With just a month to go until Spring Training begins and holes to be filled in the club’s outfield and starting rotation, the Padres are likely to put together some creative deals to address those holes and the current payroll predicament.

3. Rangers Winter Caravan begins:

After delays due to inclement weather, the Rangers are set to begin their Winter Caravan later today. The series of 13 fan events run from today until January 29 and are all free to attend. Today’s event is scheduled to run from 6:30pm to 8pm local time at the Audacy Showroom in Dallas and will feature appearances from left-hander Cody Bradford and All-Star second baseman Marcus Semien. The first 225 people in line for the event will be able to get autographs from both players. More information, including a full schedule of the events set to take place throughout the month, can be found here via MLB.com.

Red Sox Interested In Exploring Long-Term Extensions With Top Prospects

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At yesterday’s Fenway Fest fan event, Red Sox top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell indicated that they have not heard from the club’s brass regarding the possibility of signing long-term extensions in Boston to this point. Today, a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays that while the Red Sox have not yet reached out to begin extension discussions, the team is nonetheless interested in exploring the possibility with its top prospects.

Namely, Speier lists Anthony, Campbell, and top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer all as youngsters the club is hoping to talk extension with. Campbell, in particular, has made clear that he would be interested in negotiating if the Red Sox approach him. Speier notes that the club’s 2023 fourth-rounder told reporters last season that he would be “100 percent” open to a long-term deal with Boston and also reports that Anthony is seen as being willing to “at least listen” if the Red Sox were to approach him about signing a long-term extension.

All three youngsters come with significant prospect pedigree. According to Baseball America, Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, while Mayer sits just behind him at #10 and Campbell clocks in at #24. MLB Pipeline, meanwhile, has all three youngsters within the top ten: Anthony is ranked #3 overall behind Dylan Crews of the Nationals and Walker Jenkins of the Twins, while Mayer comes in at #7 and Campbell rounds out the trio at #10. The trio’s performance on the field has generally backed up those rankings, as well. Campbell flew through three levels of the minors in 2024, slashing .330/.439/.558 along the way, while Anthony hit .291/.396/.498 at the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Mayer was limited to just 77 games at Double-A due to injuries last year but nonetheless hit a solid .307/.370/.480 at the level in his age-21 season.

Pre-debut extensions for players with that level of prospect pedigree are somewhat rare but one did occur last winter between the Brewers and outfielder Jackson Chourio, who had been ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline at the time of the deal. Chourio wound up signing an eight-year extension last offseason that guaranteed him $82MM with club options and incentives that could allow the deal to max out at $142.5MM over ten years. Chourio’s extension seems like it would be a sensible benchmark for Anthony should he wind up signing a deal before making his big league debut, given their similar prospect rankings and Anthony’s status as a similar five-tool outfielder who projects to land in a corner at the big league level.

Campbell and Mayer, on the other hand, may not be in line for paydays at quite that level. Tigers infielder Colt Keith landed at the other end of the pre-arbitration extension spectrum when he signed a six-year deal last winter. That contract guarantees Keith just $28.6425MM and maxes out at $82MM over nine years if the Tigers pick up a trio of club options they hold on the youngster’s services. Prior to the 2024 season, Keith was ranked as a consensus top-30 prospect in the game but did not crack the top 20 with any major service. That limits Keith’s usefulness as a point of comparison for Campbell and Mayer, given both are rated as top-10 prospects by at least one major prospect outlet.

Keith also falls lower on the defensive spectrum than Campbell and especially Mayer. He was limited to second and third base throughout his time in the minor leagues while both Red Sox infielders have spent much of their time in the minors at shortstop. While Campbell has mixed in work at second base and in the outfield and manager Alex Cora suggested to reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) yesterday that the club plans to have Mayer start playing second and third base in addition to shortstop this year, the ability to play shortstop along with stronger prospect pedigree seems likely to allow both Red Sox infielders to set their asking prices meaningfully higher than Keith’s deal.

Of course, it’s also possible the Red Sox could wait to work out an extension with one or more of the trio until they’ve already debuted in the majors. Speier notes that the club extended utility man Ceddanne Rafaela back in April on an eight-year, $50MM deal just over 100 plate appearances into his big league career. That deal can max out at $62MM over nine years, but it’s on the low end of deals signed at that stage in a player’s career in recent years; only Aaron Ashby’s $20.5MM extension with the Brewers guaranteeing less in the past half decade. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker demonstrates how quickly a player’s asking price can skyrocket once they’ve accrued big league service time. Julio Rodriguez’s $210MM guarantee with the Mariners is the most lucrative deal of the bunch, though Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. are among the other extensions signed with less than a year of big league service time that eclipsed the $82MM guarantee Chourio secured from the Brewers last offseason.

Given how quickly the price of an extension can rapidly escalate once a young star begins to establish themselves at the big league level, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being particularly motivated to see if a deal between the sides can be reached in the coming months. With that being said, the club has shown a willingness to extend players later into their career as well. Boston brass are already known to have begun discussions with left-hander Garrett Crochet about a possible extension with two years left before free agency, and the club has previously extended Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers on nine-figure deals ahead of their final seasons before free agency.

Rockies Sign Jake Woodford To Minor League Deal

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The Rockies have agreed with right-hander Jake Woodford on a minor league deal, according to a report from Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training, as Harding says he’ll be able to compete for a spot in the rotation or bullpen when camp opens next month.

Woodford, 28, was a first-round pick by the Cardinals back in 2015. The right-hander worked his way up the minor league ladder with the club to make his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season. That debut wasn’t much to write home about, as he posted a lackluster 5.57 ERA in 21 innings of work. Woodford continued to pitch for St. Louis in an up-and-down role over the next few seasons, and actually enjoyed generally solid results in 2021 and ’22 with a 3.26 ERA (121 ERA+) and a 3.93 FIP in a combined 116 innings of work spread between nine starts and 42 relief appearances. Even during those years, however, his 15.4% strikeout rate was well below-average and a clear cause for concern.

Woodford’s lack of strikeouts came back to bite him during the 2023 season, when he pitched to a 6.23 ERA over 47 2/3 innings of work with the Cardinals. He not only continued to struggle with striking opponents out (13.1%) but also began having problems with his control to the point where his walk rate (9.1%) started to approach his strikeout rate. That’s nearly always a recipe for disaster, and while Woodford’s 51.2% groundball rate was solid, opposing hitters were crushing the ball when they did manage to elevate as evidenced by an 11.3% barrel rate. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Woodford’s brutal results led the Cardinals to non-tender him that November.

Ahead of the 2024 season, Woodford signed with the White Sox on a minor league deal. He ultimately was added to the roster in late May to replace injured right-hander Mike Clevinger and made two starts for Chicago. Neither of those starts went well, and he wound up surrendering ten runs on 15 hits (two homers) and five walks while striking out seven in 8 1/3 innings of work for the White Sox before he was designated for assignment in early June. He elected free agency and was signed to a minor league deal by the Pirates shortly thereafter.

Pittsburgh selected him to the roster shortly after the trade deadline last July, but his tenure with the Pirates only went slightly better than his time on the south side of Chicago had. In all, Woodford made seven appearances for the club: five starts and two relief outings. He surrendered an ugly 7.09 ERA during that time, and while a 4.07 FIP suggests that the righty may have been the victim of bad luck during his stint with the Pirates, his strikeout woes continued as he punched out just 15.7% of opponents during his time with the club.

Woodford was eventually outrighted off the Pirates’ roster near the end of last season and headed back into minor league free agency once the regular season came to a close. Now, the right-hander will get his latest opportunity with the Rockies. Colorado has famously struggled to field an effective pitching staff over the years due in large part to the difficulties associated with pitching at elevation. That’s led the Rockies to prioritize adding groundballers to their pitching staff, so it’s hardly a surprise that they would have interest in adding Woodford given that his career groundball rate at the big league level is a robust 45.1%.

Of course, Woodford’s lackluster results weren’t enough to earn him a major league deal, and he’ll need to earn a roster spot during Spring Training or wait for an opportunity to present itself later in the year as a non-roster depth option. As things stand, the Rockies appear to be more or less set in the rotation with Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, and Antonio Senzatela all seemingly ticketed for the Opening Day roster. There’s a bit more room for flexibility in the bullpen, however, and it’s not impossible to imagine Woodford beating a player like Angel Chivilli or Tanner Gordon out for a roster spot with a strong showing in Spring Training.

Padres Have “Entertained” Interest In Robert Suarez

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As the Padres look to retool their roster ahead of the 2025 season, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club has entertained trade interest in both players that could reach free agency next winter and players under longer-term team control. In particular, Lin notes that the club has received interest in right-handers Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez as well as infielders Luis Arráez and Jake Cronenworth. It’s unclear whether or not the club is engaged in active negotiations regarding any of those players as things stand.

Cease and Arraez have both seen their names in the rumor mill frequently this winter, but Suarez and Cronenworth have been far less frequently discussed to this point. In fact, Lin himself suggested in early December that the Padres were inclined to keep Suarez at that point in the offseason. That the club has subsequently begun to entertain interest in the closer’s services is certainly worth noting. At the time, Lin relayed that Suarez’s trade value was complicated by the presence of an opt-out clause in his contract that would allow him to head to free agency after the 2025 season rather than receive $8MM salaries in 2026 and ’27.

Perhaps as the relief market has begun to develop, rival clubs have changed their evaluation of Suarez. With righty Jeff Hoffman landing a $33MM deal with the Blue Jays, veteran set-up man Andrew Kittredge securing a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles, and some reports suggesting closer Tanner Scott could land an AAV in the $20MM range this winter, it’s certainly feasible that the possibility of being on the hook for $26MM over three years if Suarez opts in has become more palatable. After all, Suarez’s 2.77 ERA in 65 innings as the Padres closer positions him as one of the better relief arms in the game and compares quite well with Kittredge in particular. With that being said, it’s also possible that the Padres have become more motivated to clear salary as the offseason has continued and are open to dealing Suarez even if the return is lighter than they would have accepted a month ago.

As for Cronenworth, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the club getting a meaningful return for his services beyond salary relief. He was a perfectly serviceable infield option for San Diego in 2024, hitting a roughly league average .241/.324/.390 in 656 trips to the plate while splitting time between first and second base. That was enough to make Cronenworth roughly a two-win player according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference last year, a notable step up from 2023 but still well below the numbers he posted during his back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 and 2022. With just over $72.7MM left on Cronenworth’s contract to be paid out over his age 31 to 36 seasons, the versatile infielder seems unlikely to be moved without the Padres eating significant salary or taking on another bad contract in return.

Interestingly, Lin suggests that the Padres would prefer to keep “at least” Arraez in the fold for 2025 out of those four names. That’s something of a surprise given Arraez’s hefty $14MM salary in his final year under team control and the fact that replacing him at first base could surely be done for much cheaper, thereby opening up payroll space to upgrade other areas. Even Lin acknowledges that Arraez’s pricey final year under contract could be an obstacle for San Diego as they look to retool their roster. With that being said, it’s possible that the market for Arraez hasn’t been especially robust. Few teams have been directly connected to the infielder this winter, and one rumored suitor was seemingly taken off the table when reports pushed back on the idea that the Yankees could have interest in acquiring Arraez to play second base for them in 2025.

However the club ultimately decides to go about moving salary, it seems all but certain they’ll need to make a trade or two before the season begins. RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $243MM in 2025, putting them about $2MM over the first threshold, with an actual payroll of just over $208MM. The club surely wants to duck under that first luxury tax threshold this winter, and previous reports have indicated that they want their final payroll to clock in below its current level while not necessarily dropping all the way back down to last year’s $169MM payroll. With clear needs in the outfield and rotation, it’s hard to imagine the Padres achieving all of their offseason objectives without moving at least one player due a significant salary in 2025, if not more.

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