The potential for a Nolan Arenado trade has been one of the most persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the spotlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would’ve sent him to the Astros.

Further details on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out today and presumably will in the days and weeks ahead. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that while Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will continue to negotiate and an eventual deal remains possible. Of further note, while there’s been plenty of talk regarding the number of teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, Goold suggests that the third baseman has not at any point submitted a formal list of such teams to the Cardinals. Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.

The lack of a firm list could potentially be due to the fact that Arenado’s willingness to approve a trade to another club is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear at last week’s Winter Meetings that Arenado’s goal is to land with a clear win-now team that will continue to pursue a World Series title for the balance of the three years remaining on his contract. A team’s offseason dealings can impact the perception of whether they’re a true long-term contender.

Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, somewhat ironically, the very same move that in some regards paved the way for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado might’ve reduced his willingness to go there: the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a player seeking a perennial win-now atmosphere, a team simultaneously trading its best player and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some red flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado wants to further see how the third-base market plays out before making any kind of decision, with Bregman’s eventual landing spot being one potential factor.

If that sounds counterintuitive, consider that Arenado could be viewed as something of a “Plan B” for teams with interest in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to both the Yankees and Red Sox, for instance. Either could hold appeal to Arenado, speculatively speaking, but they may choose not to ramp up their pursuit until Bregman is off the table. Revisiting the talks with Houston could also occur if Bregman signs elsewhere.

MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Show in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as well. He echoed many of the same points made in those reports and in his own reporting in helping break the no-trade development yesterday, but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.

While Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy will be the team’s third baseman next season, Denton suggested some gamesmanship in those comments and reports that the Dodgers still have some interest in Arenado. It’s hard to see how that’d work with Muncy in the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.

Muncy would make a pricey and overqualified bench player. He’s a highly affordable starter at third, owed $12MM this year with a $10MM club option for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but the 2023-24 version of Arenado isn’t a clear upgrade overall — certainly not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — higher batting average for Arenado notwithstanding. Those roadblocks aside, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”

There were clearly many factors that went into Arenado’s decision to utilize his no-trade provision, but regardless of the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Cards in limbo. They’d like to open third base playing time for younger players (e.g. Nolan Gorman, perhaps Jordan Walker) and are simultaneously hopeful of scaling back payroll ahead of next year’s player development-focused “reset” year.

Trading Arenado would’ve done just that, particularly with the Astros apparently willing to foot the majority of the bill. Woo and Rome indicate that Houston was willing to cover around $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.

Taking a step further back, Arenado’s various reported reasons for saying no to the Astros — at least for the time being — suggest we may not get resolution on his trade candidacy anytime soon. If Arenado is waiting to see both whether the Dodgers make a serious push and to see where Bregman lands (perhaps opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ hands are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors. Even in that scenario, the ball would be squarely in Arenado’s court, and if he’s willing to wait out several related market factors, this saga could drag on for some time.

In that scenario, the Cardinals might well be forced to look into other ways they could shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the other short-term veterans on the roster who don’t hold the same no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas hold. Both Contreras and Gray have reportedly told the Cardinals that they prefer to stay in St. Louis and do not plan to waive their no-trade rights.