The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month
Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.
Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.
Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
GM: Royals Hope To Deepen Bullpen, Add Hitter Who Can Play Outfield And Infield
The Royals have been one of baseball’s best turnaround stories in 2024, currently sitting nine games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. At five games back of the division-leading Guardians and a half-game up on the third-place Twins, they’re in a tightly contested race for their division as well.
Royals general manager J.J. Picollo joined Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville on The Windup podcast yesterday to discuss an aggressive offseason that saw Kansas City sign nine free agents for more than $100MM in total guarantees before signing franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7MM extension. Royals fans, in particular, will want to listen to the excellent, roughly 45-minute interview in full to hear about the work to establish a new identity for the team, some inner-workings on that Witt extension and plenty of anecdotes stemming from Picollo’s lengthy career in the industry.
But Stark noted late in the conversation that given the Royals’ performance and the timing of the chat, he’d be remiss not to inquire about the Royals’ deadline needs. Picollo, naturally, didn’t tip his hand in too much detail but did speak about his desire to deepen the bullpen and add a bat that’s capable of playing both the outfield and the infield in an effort to lengthen the lineup.
“Some of our relief corps is starting to pitch to the capabilities and abilities we’ve seen in the past,” Picollo said of his relief corps. “That’s going to be helpful, which will help put pieces of the puzzle together, but getting deeper in our bullpen to come alongside of those guys, I think, would be great. Whether or not it’s a closer — that’s going to be very difficult for anybody — there’s only going to be so many of them, and the competition will be steep. But if we can get deeper and be more reliable in our bullpen, that would be great. I’ve talked in the past about strikeouts. We’re more of a matchup bullpen without necessarily the big power. Now, we do have a couple guys we think might fit the bill internally but haven’t done it quite yet.”
The Royals indeed lack the type of power arms that proliferate the late innings of modern MLB games. The Kansas City bullpen’s 93.6 mph average fastball (per Statcast) is tied for fourth-slowest in MLB. The only entrenched Royals relievers who’ve averaged 95 mph or better on their heater this season are James McArthur and Angel Zerpa. Righties Carlos Hernandez, Dan Altavilla and Will Klein have each averaged 96.7 mph or better, but none has thrown even six innings with the big league club.
McArthur, Klein and Hernandez are likely among the names to which Picollo alluded when suggesting that the organization has power arms in house that could eventually fit that bill but haven’t done so at a consistent level. Hernandez had a big first half in 2023 and averages nearly 99 mph on his blazing heater, but has struggled with subpar command and troubles keeping the ball in the park. McArthur had a dominant finish in 2023 and a big first month in 2024, but he’s sitting on a 7.20 ERA in 15 frames since the calendar flipped to May. Klein is one of the organization’s top bullpen prospects but has walked nearly 16% of his opponents in Triple-A Omaha this year.
Kansas City has gotten particularly shaky results from its two free-agent additions to the bullpen. Left-hander Will Smith and righty Chris Stratton both have pitched to ERAs north of 5.00. Stratton’s 29 1/3 innings are tops in the Royals’ bullpen, but he’s walking a career-worst 15.2% of his opponents and sitting at 92.2 mph with his heater — his lowest mark since moving from a starting role to a bullpen gig back in 2018. Smith’s 91.4 mph fastball velocity is also a career-low, as is this year’s 17.4% strikeout rate.
It’s feasible that the Royals could look to upgrade over either of those veteran additions to the pitching staff. However, Stratton signed two-year, $8MM deal with a surprising player option standing as the second season of that contract. That could afford him a longer leash, as the Royals know they’re on the hook for $4MM to him next season unless he can turn things around and put himself in position to turn down that second-year option. Smith is on a one-year, $5MM deal but has pitched better of late, with just two earned runs allowed over his past 14 2/3 innings.
With regard to the offense, it seems the Royals are open-minded as to where a new bat could slot into the defensive alignment. Picollo mentioned at multiple points throughout the interview that the Royals need more production from the outfield — as we recently detailed at length for MLBTR Front Office subscribers — but targeting a pure outfielder isn’t necessarily set in stone.
“Offensively, you always want to add a bat somewhere — lengthen your lineup,” the GM explained. “…We have three or four guys that are in the lineup every day, and we mix and match a lot, so it doesn’t necessarily have to be an outfielder, but somebody who could play outfield and infield would be ideal. Just another bat that we could lengthen our lineup out and get a little more production in the back half of our lineup.”
No team in Major League Baseball has received less production from its outfield in 2024 than the Royals, whose collective has turned in a .210/.271/.345 batting line. The resulting 72 wRC+ (indicating they’ve been 28% worse than league-average at the plate) is the lowest in the game. Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez lead the Royals in outfield appearances, but of the 262 MLB hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season, that trio ranks 218th (Renfroe), 238th (Isbel) and 250th (Melendez) in terms of wRC+.
The Kansas City infield has been far more productive, led by the aforementioned Witt, their recently extended superstar shortstop. Witt is a bona fide MVP candidate, while second baseman Michael Massey was quietly strong (.294/.306/.529) in 110 plate appearances before landing on the IL with a back injury late last month. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has been slightly better than average, and while third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit much (.247/.299/.365), he’s played plus defense and provided outstanding value on the basepaths (17-for-17 in steals).
One common theme among the Royals’ top hitters is handedness. Pasquantino is the only healthy left-handed bat who’s provided even close to league-average offense. Melendez, Isbel, Adam Frazier and switch-hitting Drew Waters (who was optioned to Omaha as I wrote this) have all floundered at the plate. Massey, who just went on a minor league rehab assignment this week, will add another interesting left-handed bat when he returns. Even then, Kansas City will still have a predominantly right-handed lineup. Picollo didn’t specify, but adding a left-handed bat — or at least a switch-hitter who provides more from the left side of the dish — would seem particularly prudent.
However things shake out, Picollo’s comments clearly underscored a strong desire to continue the active offseason mindset into this year’s deadline. He noted that the fans in Kansas City deserve to see that level of aggression but said the motivation is about more than that.
“I also think about the players who committed to coming to Kansas City and bought into a vision that we had, which included winning and potentially getting to the playoffs,” said Picollo. “So you do feel a need to help supplement what we already have and the motivation that ownership had this offseason in signing those players.”
Blue Jays, James Kaprielian Agree To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent righty James Kaprielian, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Buffalo.
Once one of the top pitching prospects in the Yankees organization, Kaprielian was traded from New York to Oakland in the 2017 deadline deal that shipped Sonny Gray to the Bronx. The former No. 16 overall draft pick spent the next six and a half years in the A’s organization, making his big league debut in the shortened 2020 season. He’d appear in four straight seasons with the A’s but do so intermittently while battling a slate of shoulder injuries that necessitated a pair of surgeries.
For Kaprielian, injuries have been all too common. The former UCLA standout required Tommy John surgery early in the 2017 season and wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign as well. During his time with the A’s, he underwent surgery in Dec. 2022 to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder and again to repair damage to his right shoulder’s labrum in Aug. 2023. Kaprielian missed time in each of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons due to shoulder troubles.
In 2021, Kaprielian offered a glimpse of what he could provide in a healthy season. He appeared in 24 games for Oakland (21 of them starts) and pitched to a 4.07 earned run average over the life of 119 1/3 innings. He fanned a strong 24.5% of his opponents against a similarly encouraging 8.2% walk rate. Home runs were an issue for the 6’3″, 225-pound righty (1.43 HR/9), but he offered an intriguing strikeout-to-walk profile, sat 93.3 mph with his heater and recorded a promising 10.9% swinging-strike rate.
The 2022 season was a bit of a step back in terms of results but a step forward in terms of both workload and velocity. Kaprielian tossed 134 innings — his career-high in a big league season — and turned in a 4.23 ERA while seeing his average fastball tick up to 94 mph. His 17% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate both represented steps in the wrong direction, but Kaprielian also trimmed that HR/9 mark to 1.07. Overall, he looked like a solid fourth starter from 2021-22 with the A’s: 253 1/3 innings, 4.16 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate, 36.5% grounder rate, 1.24 HR/9.
Kaprielian, however, never seemed to bounce back from that surgery to tend to his AC joint in the 2022-23 offseason. He was shelled for 45 runs in 61 innings (6.34 ERA) that season. His fastball dropped to a 92.5 mph average. He walked a career-worst 11.1% of hitters. The A’s passed him through outright waivers in October, and he qualified for minor league free agency following the season.
Now nearly 11 months removed from last August’s shoulder surgery, Kaprielian will head to the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate and provide some needed rotation depth. The Jays recently lost Alek Manoah to season-ending UCL surgery, and their rotation depth was already thin in the first place. They’re lacking an established option behind the quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with rookie Yariel Rodriguez likely to step into the fray once he’s cleared to return from a back injury (likely later this week). Twenty-eight-year-old Bowden Francis has been hit hard in eight appearances (three starts). Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann has spent most of the season on the injured list and only just went on a Rookie-level rehab assignment.
If Kaprielian can prove healthy and look anything like his 2021-22 form, he’ll emerge as a legitimate option for the Jays in the season’s second half. And given that he entered the season with just 2.167 years of big league service time, there’s potential for him to be controlled for three more years beyond the current season. Obviously there’s a long way to go before that’s even an option worth pondering, but the generally thin nature of Toronto’s rotation depth makes it a more distinct possibility than if he’d signed with a more pitching-rich organization.
Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews
The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.
It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.
The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.
All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.
Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).
The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.
Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.
Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.
Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.
One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).
Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.
Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.
Mets Release Tomas Nido
The Mets announced Monday that catcher Tomas Nido has been released following last week’s DFA. He’s now a free agent. The Mets will remain on the hook for the balance of this year’s $2.1MM salary (minus the prorated league minimum from any new team that plugs him onto the major league roster).
Nido, 30, is in the second season of a two-year, $3.7MM deal he signed to avoid arbitration in the 2022-23 offseason. The Mets outrighted him off the 40-man roster midway through the 2023 season, and he chose to accept the assignment, as electing free agency would’ve required forfeiting the remainder of the guaranteed money on that contract. Nido was selected back to the majors earlier this season when Francisco Alvarez tore a ligament in his thumb. He passed five years of big league service time during this most recent stint with the Mets, meaning that even if the team had again passed him through outright waivers, Nido now would’ve had the option to reject the assignment while being able to retain the remaining guaranteed money on his deal.
In 32 games with the Mets this season, Nido took 90 plate appearances and batted .229/.261/.361 with three home runs and his typically strong defensive grades. Nido has long been regarded as a high-end defensive backstop but has never coupled his fine glovework with much in the way of offensive firepower. His career .214/.251/.313 batting line is generally in line with the small-sample production he posted in this year’s 90 trips to the plate.
Now that he’s a free agent, Nido will have the ability to sign with any team and would only cost his new club the aforementioned prorated major league minimum for any time spent in the bigs. Teams like the Marlins, White Sox, Cubs and Rays are light on catchers and have received dismal production from the position this season, while the Phillies are reportedly on the lookout for some veteran depth in the wake of J.T. Realmuto‘s knee injury.
Diego Castillo Elects Free Agency
Veteran reliever Diego Castillo has elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Twins last week, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Presumably, he first cleared outright waivers.
Minnesota signed Castillo to a minor league deal during spring training and added him to the big league roster in late May. The former Rays and Mariners righty totaled seven innings out of manager Rocco Baldelli‘s bullpen and only yielded two runs, but he issued seven walks in that time as well. He’s pitched well in Triple-A St. Paul, logging 18 innings with a sharp 2.50 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 54.4% grounder rate.
Castillo was hobbled by a trio of shoulder injuries in recent years, which dropped his fastball from the upper 90s to an average of 94.2 mph in an ugly 8 2/3-inning run with the 2023 Mariners. He struggled with Triple-A Tacoma last year as well, prompting the Mariners to remove him from the 40-man roster by passing him through waivers. That granted Castillo the right to elect free agency at season’s end, which he did. He’ll now return to the open market, this time on the heels of a nice Triple-A showing with the Twins and, more importantly, after displaying a rejuvenated fastball that sat at 95.7 mph in his brief big league stint.
Between that reinvigorated fastball, his Triple-A results and an excellent track record from 2018-22, Castillo should find interest on a new minor league deal. (The Twins, conceivably, could look to quickly bring him back on a minor league pact with new terms.) Over parts of five years from ’18-’22 between Tampa Bay and Seattle, the now-30-year-old Castillo recorded a 3.12 ERA (3.38 SIERA) with a 28.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, 50.7% ground-ball rate and 1.07 HR/9. He worked both as a closer and setup man at times along the way, so he’s no stranger to leverage situations.
Castillo also has a pair of minor league options remaining, although he’s just days away from reaching five years of big league service time, at which point he’d need to consent to being optioned. If he does land back on a big league roster and stick, he’ll be controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration.
Braves Place Hurston Waldrep On Injured List
The Braves sustained yet another injury within their starting staff, as young right-hander Hurston Waldrep has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation, per a team announcement. Righty Daysbel Hernandez is up from Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. Atlanta has also optioned outfielder J.P. Martinez to Gwinnett and recalled fellow outfielder Forrest Wall in his place.
Manager Brian Snitker indicated last night that Waldrep would be optioned to Gwinnnett. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that the 22-year-old Waldrep subsequently informed the team’s training staff that his elbow was more sore than usual following his recent start. He’ll now join Spencer Strider, AJ Smith-Shawver and Huascar Ynoa on the injured list.
Waldrep, the team’s first-round pick just last year, made his MLB debut earlier this month. He’s taken the mound twice since being promoted to the big leagues but been hit quite hard, yielding 13 runs on nine hits and eight walks with only three strikeouts through seven innings. The former Florida Gator standout hasn’t completed four innings in either of his two starts and issued four free passes in each.
Tough as his debut has been, Waldrep excelled in the upper minors prior to his promotion. Through 49 1/3 Double-A frames, he pitched to an excellent 2.92 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate. The Braves promoted him to Triple-A after that start, where he pitched six innings and allowed three runs — but only on five hits and one walk with a terrific 11 strikeouts.
Since he was set to be optioned anyhow, Waldrep’s injury won’t necessarily subtract from the immediate MLB rotation. Atlanta will still lean on Reynaldo Lopez, Chris Sale, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach for the time being, and there are still quality options in Gwinnett — Bryce Elder most notably. But any elbow issue for a promising young arm is troubling, and Waldrep’s injury does further deplete the team’s depth for the time being.
As for the outfield shuffle, Martinez will head down to Gwinnett after going hitless in 10 plate appearances with the big league squad. Wall will get a look after batting .287/.393/.415 with four homers and 11 steals for the Stripers. He’ll replace Martinez as a left-handed bat in the outfield mix, giving Snitker some additional speed off the bench. Given Adam Duvall‘s woeful .084/.126/.108 slash against fellow righties — he’s hitting .275/.393/.565 against southpaws — Wall could see some action against right-handed pitching as well.
Diamondbacks Re-Sign Logan Allen To Minors Contract
TODAY: Allen did elect to become a free agent, but has now re-signed with the Diamondbacks on a new minor league deal. The southpaw is getting the start today for Triple-A Reno.
JUNE 13: Diamondbacks left-hander Logan Allen went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Reno, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment over the weekend. Allen has been outrighted in the past and will thus have the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency.
The 27-year-old Allen, not to be confused with the Cleveland southpaw of the same name, appeared in a dozen games for the Diamondbacks and pitched 28 innings. He was tagged for an ugly 5.46 ERA in that time, though the bulk of the damage came in his final outing, when he surrendered six runs in a single inning of work against the Padres. Prior to that collapse, he’d tossed 27 frames of 3.67 ERA ball with a 16.9% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 44.8% ground-ball rate.
That marked Allen’s first MLB action since 2022. The former eighth-round pick at one point ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects on several publications and has been in multiple trades of note but has yet to solidify himself as a steady big league contributor. Originally drafted by Boston, he’s since suited up for San Diego, Cleveland and Baltimore in addition to his current run in Arizona, but he’s been hit hard, yielding a 5.79 ERA in 124 1/3 MLB innings.
Astros Release Jose Abreu
The Astros announced Friday that they’ve released first baseman Jose Abreu. The former American League Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM contract. Houston will eat the remainder of the money still owed to Abreu on that deal.
Houston selected the contract of catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel from Triple-A Sugar Land, reports KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander. In 201 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Hummel boasts a .301/.423/.509 slash (135 wRC+) with seven homers, 13 doubles, eight steals (in nine tries), a 17.4% strikeout rate and a massive 16.4% walk rate. The Astros acquired the 29-year-old from the Giants via an April waiver claim and later succeeded in passing him through outright waivers.
While Abreu generally exceeded expectations in landing that sizable three-year deal, few could’ve predicted that the contract would go this poorly. Abreu hit .237/.296/.383 with Houston last season and began the 2024 season in such a calamitous funk that the veteran agreed to be optioned at a point when he was 7-for-71 on the season. Since returning, Abreu hasn’t looked any better, hitting .167/.186/.333 in 43 trips to the plate.
Overall, Abreu’s tenure with the team will come to an end with a shocking .217/.275/.351 batting line in 714 plate appearances. That’s about 28% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. When coupled with below-average defense at first base, Abreu was 1.6 wins below replacement level, per Baseball-Reference, and a full two wins below replacement per FanGraphs.
Although there were some signs of decline in 2022, Abreu still hit .304/.378/.446 that season. A good portion of his power had eroded (hence the pedestrian .141 ISO and career-low 15 homers), and a fair bit of his production was propped up by a .350 average on balls in play that the plodding Abreu was never going to sustain over the long run. The Astros, operating without a general manager for the first portion of the offseason, still paid a hefty per-year price to sign Abreu into his late 30s, with owner Jim Crane spearheading negotiations on that deal and on Rafael Montero‘s own surprising three-year pact. Though the length of the pact was a modest surprise, it pales in comparison to how surprising the extent of Abreu’s decline has been.
Between Abreu and Jon Singleton, Houston’s lack of production at first base has been near the bottom of all Major League Baseball. Only the Rockies — Kris Bryant, Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman — have seen their first basemen combine to deliver a lesser output than the Astros’ miserable .181/.262/.291 batting line. That dearth of offense from a typically bat-heavy position in the lineup has been one of many reasons for the Astros’ disappointing 31-38 record. Houston sits eight games back of the division-leading Mariners and six games out in the AL Wild Card hunt (with six teams to leapfrog in order to claim one of those three spots).
Abreu’s contract will now be dead money on the Astros’ payroll both this year and next. It still counts toward the luxury tax as well, even though he’s no longer on the roster. That dead money only further adds to a troubling long-term outlook that raises legitimate questions about the team’s ability to continue putting a perennial contender on the field. Despite their questionable long-term outlook and their 2024 struggles, however, general manager Dana Brown — hired after the signing of Abreu — has insisted that his team will not be a seller and that he expects to operate as a buyer in the run-up to next month’s trade deadline. The Astros reportedly have interest in adding multiple starting pitchers.
As for Abreu himself, he’ll now head to the open market and be able to field interest from other clubs. It’s unlikely that any team will place him directly onto the big league roster in light of his recent struggles, so he’d very likely need to settle for a minor league deal.
Whether Abreu is amenable to that sort of arrangement isn’t clear, but players often want to go out on their own terms rather than be forced from the game they love due to declining performance. Abreu’s willingness to be optioned earlier this season and the constant praise he’s received from teammates both in Chicago and in Houston regarding his work ethic and passion for the game could point a willingness to keep going. Teammates Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena and Kendall Graveman all lauded Abreu’s work ethic last September when discussing his late-season hot streak with Chandler Rome of The Athletic, as well as his impact in the clubhouse. That drive, combined with his sterling clubhouse reputation and outstanding track record in Chicago, could lead to interest on what amounts to a no-risk flier from a team with a need for help at first base and/or against left-handed pitching.