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Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

The Biggest Trade In Nationals History Looks Better Every Day

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The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.

The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.

A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.

San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.

It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.

While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.

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Nationals Notes: Soroka, Wood, Garcia

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After moving to the bullpen with the White Sox down the stretch last year and finding great success with a 2.75 ERA and a 39% strikeout rate in 36 innings of work after converting to relief, right-hander Michael Soroka now figures to get another crack at starting in D.C. after signing a one-year deal worth $9MM. Soroka made his spring debut for his new club yesterday, posting three scoreless innings while walking one and striking out three.

Those strong results aren’t especially meaningful given the nature of Spring Training, but MASN’s Bobby Blanco noted yesterday that Soroka’s velocity was up substantially during the outing. Per Blanco, Soroka “nearly” averaged 95mph throughout the outing and topped out at 96.2mph. That’s a big step up from previous years of his career, where the right-hander has typically averaged around 93mph on his heater, with last year’s 93.5mph figure standing as his current regular season peak. One outing of just 39 pitches hardly guarantees that Soroka will be able to keep up mid-90s velocity throughout the regular season, but both Soroka himself and manager Dave Martinez appeared encouraged by the start, the latter of whom called it “very encouraging.”

“Yeah, absolutely. I think I knew I could,” Soroka said when asked about maintaining his velocity deeper into games, as relayed by Blanco. “In relief last year, for the most part, I was still throwing multiple innings. And to be honest with you, the feeling of where the fastball got to at the end of inning three was really exciting, because it feels like I can replicate it over and over again. It’s definitely the easiest I’ve ever thrown in the mid-90s… And yeah, I think after today, especially, I know I won’t have a problem, at least holding somewhere close to that.”

Soroka figures to be a fixture of the Nationals rotation this year if healthy, alongside southpaw MacKenzie Gore. Right-hander Jake Irvin, left-hander DJ Herz, lefty Mitchell Parker, veteran Trevor Williams, and NPB southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara are among the other candidates for the club’s Opening Day rotation as things stand. It’s a deep group of young and interesting arms, but none has posted a season that compares to Soroka at his best. A former first-round pick by Atlanta, the right-hander’s rookie campaign in 2019 was nothing short of dazzling as he posted a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts en route to a second place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Soroka’s been derailed by injury woes in the years since then, but he’s still just 27 and is coming off a healthy 2024 campaign, lending optimism to the possibility he could return to form.

Elsewhere on the roster, young outfielder James Wood is still working his way back from a bout of quad tendinitis that slowed him in the early days of camp. The injury hasn’t impacted his swing, allowing him to continue to get reps as a DH, and Spencer Nausbaum of the Washington Post laid out the club’s plan for Wood to return to the field. Wood is expected to DH in today’s spring game, and with a team off-day on Monday the club plans to get Wood some outfield work on the backfields to test his ailing quad. If that goes well, it’s possible Wood could then return to the outfield in games. Wood, 22, figures to serve as the club’s everyday left fielder in 2025 after a strong debut season where he hit .264/.354/.427 across 79 games.

Elsewhere on the diamond, infielder Luis Garcia Jr. was a late scratch from yesterday’s spring lineup and was sent home from camp due to illness. As noted by Blanco, Martinez told reporters that he wasn’t yet sure when Garcia would return to action, as the Nats don’t want Garcia passing his fever around camp. Fortunately, it seems unlikely that the illness will have any serious impact on Garcia’s ability to ramp up for Opening Day later this month. The lefty enjoyed a strong season last year as he slashed .282/.318/.444 in 528 trips to the plate.

NL East Notes: Sale, Montas, Wood

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Braves left-hander Chris Sale just had a tremendous bounceback season. He made 29 starts with a 2.38 earned run average, earning a National League Cy Young award. He was largely injured and/or ineffective from 2019 to 2023, which had him pondering retirement.

“I thought that it was gonna be my last year,” Sale said to the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast about where he was at before getting traded to Atlanta. “So I went into that offseason on a mission like ’one more year left.’… ’cause in my mind, I wasn’t walking away from baseball. I was walking away from getting hurt.”

The Red Sox traded Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom in December of 2023. At the time, as mentioned, he had been battling significant injuries for five years. Tommy John surgery in 2020 was the big one but Sale also had a stress reaction in his ribs, a fractured finger, a broken wrist suffered in a bicycle accident and a stress reaction in his shoulder blade over that span. He had a 4.16 ERA in 298 1/3 innings over those five seasons.

2024 was the final year of his extension with the Red Sox and the mounting injuries apparently had him looking towards hanging up his spikes. But he was traded to Atlanta, signed an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026, and then went on to have an excellent season in 2024. It makes for an interesting “what if” but Sale is clearly in a better spot now. The injury bug hasn’t left him entirely alone, however. He missed the final two weeks of 2024 due to back spasms and was also left off Atlanta’s postseason roster. 2024 was still a big improvement over prior years but time will tell if he can keep the good health going into his age-36 season.

Some more spring training tidbits from the NL East…

  • It was reported earlier this week that Mets righty Frankie Montas has a lat strain and will be shut down for six to eight weeks. The righty is apparently a bit more optimistic than his club, however. He told members of the media today, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that he’s already feeling better from his platelet-rich plasma injection and expects to be throwing again in four to six weeks. That’s still a notable period of time but it’s a bit less dire than the other timeline. He had a 4.84 ERA last year and then signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Mets this winter. He will have the chance to opt out after the first year, though returning healthy and productive will be important if he is to consider that possibility. For now, the Mets’ rotation mix includes Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill.
  • Nationals outfielder James Wood has some quad tendinitis, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. It doesn’t bother him when he hits, so he’s been able to take batting practice but has skipped some defensive drills. Per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, Wood says he has “zero” concern but the club did send him for an MRI, which showed no structural damage. With still over a month before Opening Day, there’s plenty of time to get things in order, with Wood and the Nats both surely hoping for a clean bill of health by then. Now just 22 years old, Wood hit .264/.354/.427 in his major league debut last year and is slated to be a big part of the club’s future.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

* This podcast was recorded on the evening of July 2, before the Rays traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers.

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What are the Astros going to do at the deadline? (42:15)
  • The Rangers are terrible but are World Series champions for the first time. Can they sell even if it’s the best thing for the team? (46:50)
  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris says the club could buy or sell. What do the final months of the season look like in Detroit? (54:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals Promote James Wood, Designate Eddie Rosario For Assignment

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The Nationals have made top prospect James Wood’s previously reported promotion to the major leagues official, formally announcing the selection of his contract from Triple-A Rochester. In a corresponding move, veteran outfielder Eddie Rosario has been designated for assignment.

Wood’s promotion to the majors was reported last Friday, and MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald broke down the vaunted outfielder’s impending ascension to the majors at the time. The 21-year-old had laid waste to upper-minors pitching this season, delivering an outrageous .353/.463/.595 slash with 10 homers, 16 doubles and nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (42). Wood has drawn a free pass in a massive 17.3% of his trips to the plate and chipped in a 10-for-11 showing in stolen base attempts as well.

A second-round pick of the Padres back in 2021, Wood has elevated his status to the point that he’s widely regarded as the top yet-to-debut prospect in the sport. Baseball America and MLB.com both rank him as the game’s No. 3 prospect, but the players ahead of him between those two lists (Paul Skenes, Jackson Holliday, Junior Caminero) have all reached the majors at least briefly. Based on the timing of his promotion, Wood will now be under team control through at least the 2030 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2027-28 offseason.

Wood now joins top Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams as potential core pieces acquired by the Nationals in the blockbuster trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego two summers ago. The Nats still have minor league outfielder Robert Hassell III and minor league lefty Jarlin Susana working their way through the system as well. Neither is viewed as having the type of ceiling Wood, Abrams and Gore have already shown, but Hassell is still just 22 and reached Double-A this year, while the 20-year-old Susana is in his second season at Low-A. Both players could yet reach the big leagues in the next few years.

Turning to the 32-year-old Rosario, he’s long been seen as a potential casualty of Wood’s big league promotion. The former Twins, Braves and Guardians outfielder signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary during spring training and made the team’s Opening Day roster despite a poor showing in nine spring contests. Rosario had an awful first month of the season (.088/.137/.162 through the end of April), followed by a blistering May (.253/.319/.530) before falling into another major swoon (.191/.200/.250 in June).

Overall, Rosario’s time with the Nats will draw to a close with a .183/.226/.329 batting line. That’s 46% worse than league-average production, by measure of wRC+ (54). Rosario’s 5.5% walk rate was his lowest since 2019, while his 23% strikeout rate is roughly in line with the 2022-23 rates he showed in Atlanta (but a far cry from the 16.1% mark he turned in from 2017-21).

The Braves acquired Rosario in a 2021 salary-dump deal with Cleveland and immediately saw him go on a magical run down the stretch, slashing .271/.330/.573 with seven homers in 106 plate appearances. He went on to deliver a legendary 14-for-25 performance with three home runs during the National League Championship Series, taking home NLCS MVP honors in the process, before slumping in the World Series.

Rosario’s late surge with Atlanta prompted the team to re-sign him on a two-year, $18MM contract that proved regrettable. He hit .212/.259/.328 in his first season of that contract, and while Rosario bounced back with 21 homers in 2023, his overall batting line was effectively league average (100 wRC+) while his defense continued to receive lackluster grades. Rosario was a productive everyday outfielder with the Twins from 2017-20 but in four seasons since that time he’s turned in a .236/.283/.403 batting line with poor defense and mounting strikeout rates.

The Nats will have five days to trade Rosario, release him or place him on outright waivers, though a veteran with Rosario’s service time would surely just reject an outright assignment to Triple-A anyhow. It’s unlikely that any team would claim even the modest remainder on Rosario’s contract. The likeliest outcome is a release, at which point Rosario will be free to sign with any team. A new club could owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the Nats still owe him, but Washington will be on the hook for the majority of his contract at this point.

Nationals Planning To Call Up James Wood On Monday

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Nationals fan can circle Monday, July 1 as one of the most anticipated days in recent franchise history. They’re planning to promote top outfield prospect James Wood for his MLB debut when they return home for a series against the Mets that day, reports Grant Paulsen of 106.7 FM The Fan. Talk Nats recently suggested that could be a potential target date for the ballyhooed prospect’s debut, and it seems that is indeed the Nats’ plan. Washington will need to formally select Wood’s contract to get him onto the 40-man roster. The 21-year-old Wood, currently the game’s No. 3 overall prospect at Baseball America, was one of the centerpieces in the blockbuster trade sending Juan Soto from Washington to San Diego two years ago.

Wood, now 21, was selected by the Padres in the second round of the 2021 draft. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in San Diego’s system going into 2022. He increased his prospect stock almost immediately, with a strong showing in 50 Single-A games that year. He hit ten home runs, stole 15 bases and drew a walk in 15.7% of his plate appearances, striking out just 17.8% of the time. His .337/.453/.601 batting line translated to a 168 wRC+.

As mentioned, Wood changed teams in the 2022 deal that sent Soto to the Padres, with the Nationals also getting CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. Wood continued at the Single-A level after that deal, slashing .293/.366/.463 for his new organization.

Going into 2023, Wood was generally considered to be one of the top 20 prospects around the league and he just kept hitting. He got into 129 games last year between High-A and Double-A, launching 26 homers and swiping 18 bags. His 31.5% strikeout rate was a bit high but he was still getting walked at a string 11.8% clip.

This year, Wood’s progression has continued with more amazing numbers, though with a slight injury hiccup. In late May, he suffered a hamstring injury and missed closed to a month, but he returned to the field and has looked no worse for wear. Through 51 Triple-A games this season, he currently sports a monster line of .346/.458/.578. That includes ten home runs, ten steals and a 17.3% walk rate. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate to a tidy 18.2% level.

Wood is clearly ready for the next step and will try tackling major league pitching. Not all prospects find immediate success when brought up to the big leagues, so it shouldn’t be a massive surprise if he can’t keep putting up video game numbers like he has in the minors, but he has little left to prove and it’s time for the show.

For the Nationals, it’s a very interesting transition time for this promotion. They spent most of the previous decade in contention, with rosters featuring star players like Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Soto and others, winning a title in 2019. But the bottom quickly fell out after they won that World Series, which led to trades of Scherzer, Turner and Soto.

Though dealing a generational talent like Soto may have been tough for the Washington front office and its fans, it has played a huge role in what seems to be a relatively quick return to respectable baseball. Abrams’ defense is still a work in progress but he’s putting up huge offensive numbers from the shortstop position and stealing bases as well, while Gore is having himself a very nice season on the mound.

The Nats came into this season clearly still in rebuild mode but they haven’t fallen completely out of the playoff picture in the weak National League race. Their 38-42 record is clearly subpar but they are only three games back of a Wild Card spot at the moment.

If Wood is able to succeed in the majors right away, that would obviously be a boost for their chances of hanging around that playoff race. Wood has experience at all three outfield spots but has been in left field since coming back from his injury, perhaps suggesting that is where the Nats plan to slot him in. Jesse Winker has been playing that spot and is having a nice season, but he’s not considered a strong defender and may be moved into a designated hitter role. Eddie Rosario has been serving as the DH for most of this month but is hitting just .181/.226/.330 for the year. If he’s going to be the one relinquishing the most playing time to Wood, it will be a low bar to clear for Wood in providing the Nats with an immediate upgrade.

Whether the Nats can be a surprise contender this year or not, Wood is still lined up to be a big part of a new core that has been gradually forming in Washington. As mentioned, Abrams and Gore are having good seasons. Jacob Young hasn’t hit much yet but has a strong floor in center field thanks to his speed and defense. Young and controllable pitchers like Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz have shown encouraging signs to various degrees. Cade Cavalli will be back in that mix after he finishes rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. And Wood won’t be the last exciting prospect promotion, with Dylan Crews, Brady House and others on the way.

The trade deadline is on July 30, just over a month away, so the club can take that time to decide if they want to try for something this year or just focus on putting the pieces together for the future. Either way, there’s plenty to like in the long-term view. In addition to the talent, the onerous Patrick Corbin contract is set to expire at the end of this season. That will leave the future payroll relatively clean, Keibert Ruiz and Strasburg the only notable deals on the books. The Ruiz deal has a fairly low average annual value while Strasburg’s deal was renegotiated to defer some money as part of his retirement. In short, the club has plenty of ability to build around their budding core going forward.

For Wood, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time this year. Top prospects called up midseason can earn a full service year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that will be essentially impossible for him at this point. Even if he crushes the ball for the next three months, he won’t be able to catch guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Paul Skenes, Joey Ortiz and the other rookies that have already had plenty of time to pull ahead.

He also won’t have enough time to get to Super Two status after 2026, based on where previous cutoffs have been. The earliest he could qualify for arbitration is after 2027 and his earliest free agency would be after 2030. Future optional assignments could push those timelines back but that won’t be a concern if he keeps mashing the way he has been on the farm.

Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews

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The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.

It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.

The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.

All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.

Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).

The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.

Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.

Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.

Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.

One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).

Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.

Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.

Beltway Notes: Wood, Thomas, Wells, Webb

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One of the chief questions surrounding the Nationals this season is when star prospect James Wood could be making his Major League debut, though that debate might be put on hold while Wood overcomes a minor injury.  Wood left Thursday’s Triple-A game with tightness in his right hamstring, and Nats manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Andrew Golden of the Washington Post) that the removal was precautionary in nature.

We could learn as early as today whether or not this injury is serious enough to merit a stint on the seven-day minor league IL, or if Wood could potentially be ready to go after another day or two of rest.  Naturally the team is going to be as cautious as possible with Wood given that, if healthy, he seems to be forcing the issue of a call-up.  Acquired from the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade package in 2022, Wood was a consensus top-15 prospect in baseball even before he started obliterating Triple-A pitching.  The 21-year-old is hitting .355/.465/.596 over 202 plate appearances with Triple-A Rochester, with nine homers and 10 steals (in 11 tries).

More from the Nationals and the Orioles…

  • It has now been a month since a Grade 2 MCL sprain sent Lane Thomas to Washington’s 10-day injured list, and Martinez told Golden and company that Thomas will be re-evaluated this weekend.  This could potentially mean an activation from the IL, or perhaps just a move up to Triple-A games in the next stage of Thomas’ rehab assignment.  Thomas has already played in four games with Double-A Harrisburg, and Martinez said that Thomas has been a little sore but otherwise feeling okay in his return to action.  Thomas was off to a slow start (.184/.250/.253) over his first 96 PA of the season, but the outfielder was the Nationals’ most consistent hitter in 2023, with 28 homers and a .268/.315/.468 slash line over 682 PA.
  • The Orioles’ pitching depth has again become a talking point with John Means and Dean Kremer both hitting the 15-day injured list in the last few days.  Tyler Wells has been on the IL since mid-April due to elbow inflammation, and the righty will start playing catch this week, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun).  This represents something of a restart of Wells’ recovery program, as Wells was shut down with more soreness after attempting some catch at the start of May.  Given the setback, it would appear as though Wells is still several weeks away from a return to the 26-man roster, as he’ll need to ramp up before even starting a minor league rehab assignment.  Wells has a solid 3.93 ERA over 222 1/3 innings for Baltimore over the last two seasons, working mostly as a starter though some struggles cost him his rotation spot last year.
  • Right-hander Nathan Webb will miss the rest of the 2024 season after undergoing left Achilles tendon surgery, as Webb himself announced on his Instagram page.  Webb underwent Tommy John surgery in spring 2023 and was slated to return to the mound around midseason.  “I was only a few weeks away from getting into games after rehabbing….however, the good news is that I will make a full recovery and be 100 percent ready for Spring Training 2025,” Webb wrote.  The latest injury won’t impact Webb’s status with the Orioles, as the club signed him to a two-year minor league contract last October with the understanding that Webb would already be missing a big chunk of the 2024 campaign.  The 26-year-old Webb has yet to make his MLB debut, and he has a 6.11 ERA over 268 minor league innings in the Royals’ farm system.

Nationals Place Lane Thomas On Injured List With Grade 2 MCL Sprain

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3:12pm: It’s a Grade 2 sprain, manager Davey Martinez announced to the Nationals beat (X link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). While not a worst-case scenario, that points to an absence of some note for the Nats’ everyday right fielder.

12:56pm: The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list due to an MCL sprain in his left knee. Infielder Trey Lipscomb has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester in his place. Andrew Golden of the Washington Post first reported that Lipscomb would be called up if Thomas required a trip to the injured list after departing last night’s game with the injury.

Thomas sustained the injury last night on a steal of second base (video link). After a somewhat awkward feet-first slide into the bag, he rolled to his side in obvious discomfort. He tried to stand and was initially unable to put weight on the leg, though he eventually was able to stand and walk off the field with the team’s training staff. The Nats haven’t yet provided a timetable for Thomas’ recovery, nor have they specified the extent of the sprain.

The 28-year-old Thomas has had a rough start to his season at the plate, hitting just .184/.250/.253 in 96 trips to the plate — a far cry from last year’s career-high 28 home runs and breakout .268/.315/.468 showing. He’s actually cut his strikeout rate from 25.8% to 20.8% and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to 8.3% thus far. Much of Thomas’ struggle seems related to a .212 average on balls in play that sits 91 points shy of the career .303 mark he carried into the season, though it can’t all be chalked up to bad luck. He’s already hit seven infield flies this season, nearly halfway to last year’s total of 16. Those virtually automatic outs are naturally going to suppress his BABIP.

When Thomas has managed to reach base, he’s been exceptional. His 11 stolen bases (in 12 attempts) rank second in the majors, trailing only Milwaukee’s Brice Turang and Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (both at 12). It’s an unexpected development from a player who has always had good speed but had never stolen more than 20 bags in a season, which he did just last season.

The injury to Thomas opens the door for more outfield reps for veterans Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario. They’ll likely flank center fielder Jacob Young on a regular basis while Thomas is on the mend for a yet-to-be-determined period of time. Of course, all eyes will be on top prospect James Wood, who has crushed Triple-A pitching at a .303/.418/.474 clip through his first 91 plate appearances this season.

It’s feasible that the 21-year-old Wood — widely considered to be among the sport’s 10 to 20 best overall prospects — could get a look in the big leagues sooner than later. That’ll be all the more tempting for the Nats if Thomas is slated to miss significant time. If he’s only expected to be on the shelf for a couple weeks, however, the Nats could give Wood everyday at-bats in Triple-A for a bit longer. Winker has been excellent in left field, although if the Nats wanted to free up playing time for Wood on the big league roster, it wouldn’t be that difficult. Rosario, Joey Gallo and designated hitter Joey Meneses have all struggled greatly at the plate thus far. Moving Winker to DH to clear a corner outfield spot could happen at some point even if Thomas is back in the fold in relatively short order.

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