Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals appear to have avoided the worst on Bobby Witt Jr. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the superstar shortstop avoided any fractures after being hit by a pitch in the left forearm/wrist area this afternoon. Kansas City subsequently announced that Witt sustained a forearm contusion and said he’d be reevaluated tomorrow.

Manager Matt Quatraro said immediately after the game that Witt was headed for x-rays (relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Last year’s AL MVP runner-up left the game after he was struck by a 96 MPH sinker from Andrés Muñoz. Quatraro said Witt initially lost the feeling in his fingers, though the manager added that “it was coming back” postgame. He framed the x-ray as more of a precautionary measure.

The team can breathe a sigh of relief after that initial testing. Lingering soreness could raise the possibility of a season-opening injured list stint, but he’s unlikely to face an extended absence. Maikel Garcia would likely step in at shortstop if Witt misses any time. That’d temporarily leave second and third base to the combination of Michael Massey and Jonathan India.

Witt is coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history. He won the batting title while hitting .332/.389/.588. Witt led the majors with 211 hits, including 45 doubles and 32 home runs. He stole 31 bases while earning Gold Glove and Silver Slugger honors. Witt started 160 games at shortstop and logged nearly 1400 innings. Garcia, who played 22 1/3 innings at the position, picked up the other two starts.

The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the finalists for the 2024 awards this evening. Bobby Witt Jr. was among the finalists for American League MVP, indicating he finished in the top three in the balloting. As Matt Eddy of Baseball America points out (on X), that’ll earn the Royals an extra pick after the first round of the 2025 draft.

The 2022 collective bargaining agreement introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive to dissuade teams from keeping their top talents in the minors. A team that carries a top prospect for a full year of service can receive a draft choice if that player finds success early in his career.

A player would earn his team a pick for winning Rookie of the Year or finishing in the top three in Cy Young or MVP voting within his pre-arbitration years (essentially his first three seasons of service). A team can only add one PPI selection per player. In previous seasons, Julio Rodríguez, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll have earned their teams a PPI choice by winning Rookie of the Year.

Kansas City carried Witt, a consensus top prospect, on the roster for the entire 2022 season. The star shortstop did not earn the Rookie of the Year pick, finishing fourth in the balloting. He instead becomes the first player to earn his team an extra selection through the top three MVP placement in his third season. That’s a more difficult path that’ll presumably happen far less frequently than the Rookie of the Year route. They’ll take it all the same.

In February, the Royals signed Witt to an 11-year extension that guaranteed him a little less than $289MM. That did not take away from Witt’s eligibility for the Prospect Promotion Incentive even though he was no longer slated for a salary around the league minimum. He’s likely to finish as the MVP runner-up behind Aaron Judge after racking up a season worth around nine wins above replacement. Witt won the batting title and led the majors with 211 hits. He finished the year with a .332/.389/.588 slash line with 32 homers and 109 runs batted in while playing plus defense at the infield’s most demanding position. The Royals won 86 games to snap a nine-year postseason drought.

This is the only guaranteed PPI selection to date, but there could be more once award winners are announced next week. The Padres and Orioles would stand to gain an extra pick if Jackson Merrill and Colton Cowser win their respective Rookie of the Year awards. Austin Wells is also eligible but is a longer shot to win AL Rookie of the Year.

The Pirates cannot get an extra pick for Paul Skenes finishing in the top three in Cy Young balloting because Pittsburgh did not call the star righty up until early May. They would not receive a selection if Skenes wins Rookie of the Year for the same reason. Skenes would earn himself a full year of service time in the likely event that he places in the top two in ROY voting, however.

The other Rookie of the Year finalists also do not meet the PPI criteria. Luis Gil was not on two of the preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline — the necessary prospect status to earn a pick. The Brewers carried Jackson Chourio for a full season but signed him to an eight-year extension last December. Eddy reported in September that players who sign an extension before their MLB debuts are not eligible for a PPI selection. Chourio’s extension differs from Witt’s because the latter had already played in MLB before signing.

The Royals have been one of baseball’s best turnaround stories in 2024, currently sitting nine games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. At five games back of the division-leading Guardians and a half-game up on the third-place Twins, they’re in a tightly contested race for their division as well.

Royals general manager J.J. Picollo joined Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville on The Windup podcast yesterday to discuss an aggressive offseason that saw Kansas City sign nine free agents for more than $100MM in total guarantees before signing franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7MM extension. Royals fans, in particular, will want to listen to the excellent, roughly 45-minute interview in full to hear about the work to establish a new identity for the team, some inner-workings on that Witt extension and plenty of anecdotes stemming from Picollo’s lengthy career in the industry.

But Stark noted late in the conversation that given the Royals’ performance and the timing of the chat, he’d be remiss not to inquire about the Royals’ deadline needs. Picollo, naturally, didn’t tip his hand in too much detail but did speak about his desire to deepen the bullpen and add a bat that’s capable of playing both the outfield and the infield in an effort to lengthen the lineup.

“Some of our relief corps is starting to pitch to the capabilities and abilities we’ve seen in the past,” Picollo said of his relief corps. “That’s going to be helpful, which will help put pieces of the puzzle together, but getting deeper in our bullpen to come alongside of those guys, I think, would be great. Whether or not it’s a closer — that’s going to be very difficult for anybody — there’s only going to be so many of them, and the competition will be steep. But if we can get deeper and be more reliable in our bullpen, that would be great. I’ve talked in the past about strikeouts. We’re more of a matchup bullpen without necessarily the big power. Now, we do have a couple guys we think might fit the bill internally but haven’t done it quite yet.”

The Royals indeed lack the type of power arms that proliferate the late innings of modern MLB games. The Kansas City bullpen’s 93.6 mph average fastball (per Statcast) is tied for fourth-slowest in MLB. The only entrenched Royals relievers who’ve averaged 95 mph or better on their heater this season are James McArthur and Angel Zerpa. Righties Carlos Hernandez, Dan Altavilla and Will Klein have each averaged 96.7 mph or better, but none has thrown even six innings with the big league club.

McArthur, Klein and Hernandez are likely among the names to which Picollo alluded when suggesting that the organization has power arms in house that could eventually fit that bill but haven’t done so at a consistent level. Hernandez had a big first half in 2023 and averages nearly 99 mph on his blazing heater, but has struggled with subpar command and troubles keeping the ball in the park. McArthur had a dominant finish in 2023 and a big first month in 2024, but he’s sitting on a 7.20 ERA in 15 frames since the calendar flipped to May. Klein is one of the organization’s top bullpen prospects but has walked nearly 16% of his opponents in Triple-A Omaha this year.

Kansas City has gotten particularly shaky results from its two free-agent additions to the bullpen. Left-hander Will Smith and righty Chris Stratton both have pitched to ERAs north of 5.00. Stratton’s 29 1/3 innings are tops in the Royals’ bullpen, but he’s walking a career-worst 15.2% of his opponents and sitting at 92.2 mph with his heater — his lowest mark since moving from a starting role to a bullpen gig back in 2018. Smith’s 91.4 mph fastball velocity is also a career-low, as is this year’s 17.4% strikeout rate.

It’s feasible that the Royals could look to upgrade over either of those veteran additions to the pitching staff. However, Stratton signed two-year, $8MM deal with a surprising player option standing as the second season of that contract. That could afford him a longer leash, as the Royals know they’re on the hook for $4MM to him next season unless he can turn things around and put himself in position to turn down that second-year option. Smith is on a one-year, $5MM deal but has pitched better of late, with just two earned runs allowed over his past 14 2/3 innings.

With regard to the offense, it seems the Royals are open-minded as to where a new bat could slot into the defensive alignment. Picollo mentioned at multiple points throughout the interview that the Royals need more production from the outfield — as we recently detailed at length for MLBTR Front Office subscribers — but targeting a pure outfielder isn’t necessarily set in stone.

“Offensively, you always want to add a bat somewhere — lengthen your lineup,” the GM explained. “…We have three or four guys that are in the lineup every day, and we mix and match a lot, so it doesn’t necessarily have to be an outfielder, but somebody who could play outfield and infield would be ideal. Just another bat that we could lengthen our lineup out and get a little more production in the back half of our lineup.”

No team in Major League Baseball has received less production from its outfield in 2024 than the Royals, whose collective has turned in a .210/.271/.345 batting line. The resulting 72 wRC+ (indicating they’ve been 28% worse than league-average at the plate) is the lowest in the game. Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez lead the Royals in outfield appearances, but of the 262 MLB hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season, that trio ranks 218th (Renfroe), 238th (Isbel) and 250th (Melendez) in terms of wRC+.

The Kansas City infield has been far more productive, led by the aforementioned Witt, their recently extended superstar shortstop. Witt is a bona fide MVP candidate, while second baseman Michael Massey was quietly strong (.294/.306/.529) in 110 plate appearances before landing on the IL with a back injury late last month. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has been slightly better than average, and while third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit much (.247/.299/.365), he’s played plus defense and provided outstanding value on the basepaths (17-for-17 in steals).

One common theme among the Royals’ top hitters is handedness. Pasquantino is the only healthy left-handed bat who’s provided even close to league-average offense. Melendez, Isbel, Adam Frazier and switch-hitting Drew Waters (who was optioned to Omaha as I wrote this) have all floundered at the plate. Massey, who just went on a minor league rehab assignment this week, will add another interesting left-handed bat when he returns. Even then, Kansas City will still have a predominantly right-handed lineup. Picollo didn’t specify, but adding a left-handed bat — or at least a switch-hitter who provides more from the left side of the dish — would seem particularly prudent.

However things shake out, Picollo’s comments clearly underscored a strong desire to continue the active offseason mindset into this year’s deadline. He noted that the fans in Kansas City deserve to see that level of aggression but said the motivation is about more than that.

“I also think about the players who committed to coming to Kansas City and bought into a vision that we had, which included winning and potentially getting to the playoffs,” said Picollo. “So you do feel a need to help supplement what we already have and the motivation that ownership had this offseason in signing those players.”