Reds’ Connor Overton To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Reds righty Connor Overton had, who’s been out since mid-April due to an elbow strain, had a setback in his recovery and will undergo exploratory elbow surgery to determine the root of his troubles, manager David Bell announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Olivia Ray of WLWT Cincinnati). Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer further adds that the surgery could very well end the righty’s season.
Overton, 29, appeared in six games for the 2022 Reds (four starts) and posted a sharp 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work. With just an 11.3% strikeout rate and a minuscule .204 batting average on balls in play contributing to that mark, Overton never seemed likely to sustain that level of success, but he regressed far more precipitously than the Reds had anticipated through his first three starts of the current campaign.
While Overton’s velocity remained consistent with its 2022 levels, he was clobbered for 14 runs on 19 hits (three of them homers) and seven walks in just 11 innings of work. Overton actually improved his strikeout rate a bit (to 16.4%) and more than doubled his swinging-strike rate (from 6% to 12.5%), but his elbow barked after just three starts and he’ll now face a lengthy absence.
Originally a 15th-round selection by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around the league on a series of minor league deals and also played with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers before landing with the Reds, his sixth affiliated organization, prior to the 2022 season. He’s posted sharp numbers in the upper minors — 2.45 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate in 91 Triple-A innings — but has yet to find much in the way of big league success. In 59 1/3 Major League innings between the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds, he has a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He’ll accrue big league service and pay while on the injured list, though his chances of lasting the entire 2023-24 offseason on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster take a big hit with news of this surgery.
Overton likely would’ve gotten a lengthier look in a rotation audition this season, but he’s now out of the picture for the foreseeable future. Cincinnati also subtracted veteran righty Luis Cessa from that mix when they released him last week. Overton joins lefty Nick Lodolo on the injured list, though Lodolo, who has a stress reaction in his tibia, isn’t looking at nearly as long an absence. The Reds are currently utilizing Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, rookie Brandon Williamson, journeyman Ben Lively and veteran offseason pickup Luke Weaver in the rotation. Top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s fanned 45.3% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A, could get a look at some point this summer as well.
Guardians Notes: Naylor, Valera, Rotation
The Guardians briefly added top catching prospect Bo Naylor to the big league roster as the 27th man in yesterday’s doubleheader, but he’s already been sent back to Triple-A Columbus and will continue to get regular playing time there, it seems. Cleveland’s offense is out to a dismal start to the 2023 season, and the catching corps, in particular, has been quite poor at the plate so far.
Naylor’s .257/.391/.507 slash in Triple-A Columbus is strong, but manager Terry Francona noted to Bill Ladson of MLB.com that Naylor’s throwing numbers in Columbus have been rough. He’s just 7-for-49 in cutting down base thieves this year (14.3%). Francona added that some of that could be due to minor league pitchers doing some experimenting of their own (perhaps at the cost of some quickness to the plate), it seems the organization would understandably still like to see some improvement in that aspect of his game. To his credit, Naylor had a much stronger 32% caught-stealing rate in the minors last year.
One other near-MLB-ready prospect who could come up this year in hopes of providing some offensive help will be sidelined for the second time this year. Outfielder George Valera, who missed the first seven weeks of the season due to hamate surgery, is heading back to the injured list after just five games, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. This time, the 22-year-old is dealing with a strained hamstring. It’s not yet clear how long he’s expected to miss.
Valera went 3-for-16 at the Triple-A level in his brief five-game activation between IL stints. Last year’s .221/.324/.448 output in Triple-A doesn’t immediately stand out, but that also came as a 21-year-old against much more advanced competition and was only across 179 plate appearances. Valera spent the majority of the season in Double-A Akron, where he posted a heartier .264/.367/.470 batting line. Between those two stops, he mashed 24 homers over the course of 132 games.
Valera ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at MLB.com (No. 51) and Baseball America (No. 72) heading into the season, and the organization surely hoped he could hit his way into the big league mix before too long. Health hasn’t cooperated to this point, though the Guardians have at least avoided injuries to their position player corps at the big league level.
That’s not the case on the pitching side of things, where Cleveland has faced prolonged absences for both Triston McKenzie (teres major strain) and Aaron Civale (oblique strain). McKenzie embarked on a minor league rehab assignment over the weekend and will make at least one more outing before the team considers activating him, writes Hoynes, citing Francona. The Guards are aiming to build both righties up to around five innings and 80 to 90 pitches before reinstating either from the injured list.
McKenzie’s first rehab outing lasted three innings and 52 pitches; he can’t be activated until May 29 at the earliest, due to his status on the 60-day injured list. Civale also pitched three innings in a rehab game last week.
As it stands, the Guardians only have one clear opening in the rotation. Righty Hunter Gaddis is up from Columbus to make today’s start in place of the injured Peyton Battenfield. One of McKenzie or Civale could step into that spot, but Cleveland has Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and thriving rookies Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen also in the rotation currently. Situations such as this tend to work themselves out — injuries are inevitable on the pitching front — but at some point it’s possible the Guards will need to make the tough call to send one of Bibee or Allen back to Columbus. Speculatively speaking, Cleveland could also look into a six-man rotation or perhaps bump a more established starter like Quantrill or Civale to the bullpen, but however it shakes out there’ll be some decisions on the pitching front in the near future.
A’s Outright Zach Neal
The Athletics assigned right-hander Zach Neal outright to Triple-A Las Vegas after he cleared waivers, per the team’s transaction log. Neal, who was designated for assignment on Friday, does have the ability to reject the assignment and opt for free agency if he chooses.
The 34-year-old Neal appeared in a pair of games for the A’s and allowed three runs on four hits and no walks with three strikeouts through 3 1/3 innings. It’s his second stint with the A’s, with whom he also spent the 2016-17 seasons. Since departing the first time around, Neal pitched one big league inning with the Dodgers and spent three years in the rotation for the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
Through 89 Major League innings, Neal carries a 5.06 ERA with one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (11%) but also one of the best walk rates (1.9%). He’s a ground-ball pitcher who’s struggled recently in Triple-A both with the A’s and with the Rockies (in 2022). The Athletics’ rotation and bullpen have been a mess in 2023, with both groups ranking dead-last in the Majors in terms of ERA (7.26 for the starters, 6.49 for the relievers).
Oakland also currently has eight pitchers on the injured list: Paul Blackburn, Mason Miller, Drew Rucinski, Freddy Tarnok, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, Trevor May and Kirby Snead. Given that huge slate of injuries and, more generally, the complete lack of definition on the pitching staff, Neal could work his way back to the big league roster if he pitches even decently in the upper minors.
Rangers Release Jacob Barnes
The Rangers have released veteran right-handed reliever Jacob Barnes, per the league transaction log at MiLB.com. He’d been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock but will now be free to sign with any club.
Barnes, 33, posted good results with the Rangers organization, logging 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball during his time with their Round Rock club. He turned in a strong 52.3% ground-ball rate and 0.44 HR/9 mark, although his 17.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate were both more concerning.
A former 14th-round pick (2011), Barnes debuted with the Brewers in 2016 and was a mainstay in their bullpen for three seasons, compiling 147 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a quality 24.4% strikeout rate against an elevated 9.9% walk rate. His results fell off in 2019, however, and he’s bounced around six big league rosters since leaving Milwaukee (Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees). Dating back to 2019, Barnes has a 6.37 ERA in 101 2/3 frames, thanks largely to a hefty 1.59 HR/9 mark.
While Barnes has struggled with the long ball, he was averaging 95.4 mph on his heater last year, generally keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate (career 49%) and has frequently shown the ability to generate strikeouts at average or better rates. Barnes’ career 23.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the 2023 league average (22.7%), and his career 13.1% swinging-strike rate is two percentage points above the 11.1% league-average mark. In three separate seasons, he’s run that swinging-strike rate just shy of or even in excess of 15%, suggesting the potential for a well above-average strikeout rate.
It’s been a few years since Barnes has had big league success, but this year’s 2.21 ERA in Triple-A would be his highest of the past three seasons at that level. Between that run of upper-minors success, the league-wide need for bullpen depth and Barnes’ combination of velocity, whiffs and grounders, he ought to find another opportunity in his return to the open market.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
The Guardians’ Lineup Needs An Overhaul
The 2022 Guardians skated to a division title in the American League Central and did so with a lineup unlike any other in MLB. Cleveland’s offense was a triumph for fans of small ball and the older-school game that relied far less on the long ball than today’s brand of three-true-outcomes offenses. The ’22 Guardians put the ball in play more than any other team in baseball, and it wasn’t close. Their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in MLB and made them one of just four teams shy of 20%. The others — the Astros (19.5%), Mets (19.7%) and Cardinals (19.9%) — weren’t particularly close. Cleveland ranked 15th in the Majors in runs scored despite ranking 29th in home runs. Their 119 steals (a number that seems pedestrian in light of this year’s rule changes) ranked third in MLB.
Fast forward a season, and the lineup has a similar complexion but staggeringly different outcome. The 2023 Guardians are MLB’s most punchless team, ranking dead last with 24 home runs — just eight more than Pete Alonso has by himself. Cleveland’s 150 runs scored entering play Friday led only the Tigers (143), and the Guards had played two more games than Detroit. Cleveland enters play ranking 28th in the Majors with a .228 batting average and .302 on-base percentage, and 30th out of 30 teams with a .341 slugging percentage.
As The Athletic’s Zack Meisel pointed out Wednesday (Twitter link), Cleveland catchers have been astonishingly anemic at the plate. Prior to Cam Gallagher‘s single yesterday, the Guardians hadn’t received a hit from their catcher since the calendar flipped to May; Gallagher was hitless in 32 at-bats entering play yesterday, while Zunino is currently 0-for-27 with 21 strikeouts this month.
The Guards opened the season surprisingly carrying three catchers: Mike Zunino, Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. Even after designating Viloria for assignment, they added another catching option in 27-year-old David Fry. The Guardians have gotten less production from behind the dish than any team in the American League. Zunino, Gallagher, Viloria and Fry have combined for a .127/.225/.231 slash (29 wRC+) while serving as catcher, striking out in 38.4% of their plate appearances.
All of this comes at a time when Cleveland has one of baseball’s top catching prospects thrashing Triple-A pitching. Bo Naylor has appeared in 39 games with Columbus, taken 180 turns at the plate and batted .264/.400/.521 with nine home runs, eight doubles, a triple, a sky-high 18.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate. The bar he’d need to clear in order to be an upgrade could scarcely be lower, yet he’s still in the minors while Cleveland backstops endure a nearly three-week-long hitless streak.
The problem isn’t confined to the team’s catching corps, although that’s the most glaring weak point in the lineup. Still, here are the Guardians’ position-by-position rankings, in terms of wRC+, at the other positions on the diamond: first base (90, 21st in MLB), second base (86, 19th in MLB), shortstop (79, 23rd in MLB), third base (116, sixth in MLB), left field (97, tied for 13th in MLB), center field (74, 28th in MLB), right field (37, 30th in MLB), designated hitter (80, 26th in MLB).
Jose Ramirez (.285/.364/.457) remains excellent and is the one still decidedly above-average hitter on the roster, although even he’s having a down year by his MVP-caliber standards. Steven Kwan has been solid in left field (.269/.356/.353) but not as good as during last year’s sensational rookie campaign. No other player who’s taken 20 plate appearances for Cleveland this season has been better than league-average at the plate.
Some of this was to be expected. The Guardians surely weren’t hoping to get much offensive production from catcher — though they hoped for more than this — and knew Myles Straw‘s contributions would come more from his elite center field defense and baserunning. But every hitter on the roster has taken a step back from last season’s performance.
The offseason signing of Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal looks regrettable with the Guardians getting closer to the Padres version of Bell from 2022 than the Nationals version. In 177 plate appearances, Bell is walking at a huge 14.7% clip but has batted only .227/.339/.3535 with three home runs. His 19.8% strikeout rate would be the second-highest of his career, and his .127 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is 33 points south of the league average and 67 points below his own career mark. Bell is hitting the ball on the ground at a staggering 58.6% rate. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end, but it would take a drastic turnaround for that to seem realistic.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has optioned last year’s primary right fielder, Oscar Gonzalez, to Triple-A after he followed up last year’s .296/.327/.461 debut with a .192/.213/.288 start to his sophomore season. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco has already outlined shortstop Amed Rosario‘s struggles, and Josh Naylor hasn’t been any better at first base. Will Brennan, called up to replace the demoted Gonzalez, has barely been an improvement.
The Guardians’ commitments to defense-, contact- and/or speed-oriented players at multiple positions isn’t inherently flawed, but it only works if the rest of the lineup is capable of supporting players like Straw and Zunino (or, in last year’s case, Austin Hedges). That hasn’t been the case in 2023. The Guardians’ team strikeout rate is up nearly two percentage points (from 18.2% to 19.8%), while their team BABIP is down 20 points (from .294 to .274).
That might not seem like much — perhaps an extra strikeout and one extra ball in play turned into an out per game — but the margin for error is thin when there’s practically no one on the team with even average power. The Guardians are completely reliant on balls in play to manufacture runs, which leaves them at the mercy of sequencing and hitting when it counts. Entering play Thursday, they’d batted .228/.296/.325 as a team with men on base. Last year, they hit .258/.319/.394 in such situations.
These struggles all come in spite of remarkably good health among the team’s collection of position players. The Guardians don’t have a position player on the injured list at the moment and in fact haven’t placed a hitter on the Major League injured list all season. They’ve still had injury troubles — Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Sam Hentges have most notably been sidelined — but they’ve come exclusively on the pitching side of the roster.
As for how they can turn things around, the avenues to doing so aren’t plentiful in mid-May. The trade market simply isn’t active this time of season — and that was true even before an expansion to a 12-team playoff field likely further emboldened fringe contenders to take a wait-and-see approach to trade deadline season.
Over the past half decade, there have been just two mostly regular position players who were traded in May and had not first been designated for assignment. The Rays shipped Willy Adames and righty Trevor Richards to the Brewers for right-handers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen back in 2021. Tampa Bay was also involved in a 2018 swap with the Mariners, centering around Denard Span and Alex Colome. That’s not to say a deal can’t and won’t happen, but history tells us it’s overwhelmingly unlikely. Cleveland can certainly monitor the DFA and waiver market, but with a 20-23 record they’re not close to top waiver priority right now.
If the Guardians are going to right the ship, they’ll need to promote from within. Bo Naylor is an obvious candidate to join the big league roster and quite arguably should already be there. Tyler Freeman hit .329/.468/.482 in 109 Triple-A plate appearances before being called up to the roster but is being used in a bench role. He’s not a home run threat himself and the team isn’t going to bench Andres Gimenez seven weeks into a seven-year extension, but there are still ways to get Freeman into the lineup more regularly. Top outfield prospect George Valera only just made his season debut in Triple-A a week ago, as he missed the first several weeks of the year recovering from hamate surgery. If he’s able to approximate the .264/.367/.470 output he showed in Double-A last year over even a small sample, there’s good reason to give him a look in right field over both Brennan and Gonzalez sooner rather than later.
The Guardians are rather fortunate that they’ve managed to remain as close to .500 as they have. They’re sitting on a -31 run differential, while the Pythagorean win-loss system and BaseRuns both put their expected record at 18-25. Their sub-par run differential and sub-.500 record come despite the fact that Baseball-Reference grades their strength of schedule to date as the third-easiest in MLB.
Cleveland has already gone full speed ahead with a youth movement in the rotation, giving prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Peyton Battenfield prominent rotation spots. Some of that’s been necessitated by injury, but the Guardians weren’t shy about optioning one of their most experienced starters, Zach Plesac, to Columbus when he wasn’t performing up to expectations. Given the state of their lineup, it shouldn’t be long before they take a similar approach on the position-player side of the roster. And, if some of those young bats don’t break through, the Guardians ought to be on the lookout for controllable bats heading into the trade deadline — particularly with so much young pitching at their disposal. The schedule is only going to become more difficult from here on out, and the current group of hitters gives little reason for optimism.
Athletics Designate Zach Neal For Assignment
The A’s announced Friday that they’ve designated righty Zach Neal for assignment and placed fellow righty Zach Jackson on the 15-day injured list with a flexor tendon strain. That pair of moves clears a spot for the selection of righty Lucas Erceg‘s contract. Oakland acquired Erceg from the Brewers in exchange for cash earlier in the week and will put him right onto the MLB roster.
Neal, 34, returned to the Majors for the first time in five years when the A’s called him up last week. He’s appeared in two games and allowed a total of three runs on four hits (two homers) and no walks with three strikeouts. That marks his second stint with Oakland, as he was also with the A’s back in 2016-17. Neal tossed one lone inning for the 2018 Dodgers and spent the 2019-21 seasons pitching for the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His first NPB season was a strong one, but he struggled in two subsequent years and was also hit hard with the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate in 2022.
Overall, Neal has 89 big league innings and a 5.06 ERA with just an 11% strikeout rate but a minuscule 1.9% walk rate. He’s a heavy ground-ball pitcher who’s had some success in Triple-A, last year’s rough showing with the Rockies organization (6.87 ERA in 116 2/3 innings) notwithstanding. The A’s will have a week to trade him or pass him through outright waivers. Neal would have the ability to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, as he’s been outrighted previously in his career.
Word of a flexor strain for Jackson is tough for the A’s, given that Jackson was one of just two members of the team’s Opening Day bullpen who’d survived to this point. He’s pitched 18 innings of 2.50 ERA ball thus far, fanning 28.7% of his opponents against an admittedly unsightly 12.5% walk rate. Even with that ugly walk rate, Jackson has been a bright spot in an Oakland bullpen that has used a stunning 21 relievers so far this year. The timeline on his recovery hasn’t been provided yet, flexor tendon injuries are rarely accompanied by short-term absences.
Erceg will become the 22nd A’s reliever of the young season whenever he takes the mound. He’s a 2016 second-round pick who drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman but eventually moved to the mound in 2021. Erceg was a reliever in college as well, so the shift wasn’t entirely foreign to him. He’s taken to the mound reasonably well, given the long layoff between his college pitching career and his debut on the mound in pro ball.
The 28-year-old Erceg pitched to a 3.43 ERA in 39 1/3 Triple-A frames following a promotion there last year, fanning just under a quarter of his opponents (24.7%) against a bloated 13.5% walk rate. He’s had a rougher go in 2023, evidenced by a 6.46 earned run average in just 15 1/3 frames.
However, six of the 11 earned runs he’s allowed came in one catastrophic appearance against the Braves’ top affiliate on May 10, wherein Erceg didn’t record an out. He’s been generally solid otherwise, and his 23.9% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate are at least within the vicinity of last year’s rates. He’ll obviously still need to cut down on his walks if he’s to have any sustained success on the mound, but the paper-thin A’s are strapped enough for pitching depth that they’ll give him the chance to do so at the big league level for now.
Giants Select Patrick Bailey, Designate Cal Stevenson
The Giants announced a flurry of roster moves Friday, headlined by their selection of catcher Patrick Bailey‘s contract from Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco also selected the contract of righty Ryan Walker, designated outfielder Cal Stevenson for assignment and placed both catcher Joey Bart (groin strain) and right-hander Ross Stripling (back strain) on the 10-day and 15-day injured lists. Stevenson’s DFA opens one 40-man roster spot for Bailey, and a second was opened by recalling outfielder Heliot Ramos from Sacramento and placing him on the Major League 60-day injured list with a strained right oblique.
Bailey, 23, was the Giants’ top pick in the 2020 draft, coming off the board with the No. 13 overall selection. He had a decent debut campaign in their system a year later, batting a combined .265/.366/.429 across the Giants’ Rookie-ball, Low-A and High-A affiliates. He struggled at the final of those three stops (.185/.290/.296), but Bailey returned to High-A in 2022 and posted an improved .225/.342/.419 output. It still wasn’t a great showing, but the Giants moved him up to Double-A in 2023 anyhow, and he responded with a .333/.400/.481 slash in 14 games before being promoted again to Triple-A.
Bailey’s bat has again struggled following that quick promotion, but he’ll be aggressively promoted even further now that Bart is sidelined with an injury. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Giants farmhands heading into the season, lauding his defensive aptitude — specifically his receiving and blocking skills (though he also sports a strong 31% caught-stealing rate in the minors). The switch-hitting Bailey has struggled mightily from the right side of the dish in pro ball, hitting below .200 with just two of his 25 career home runs coming from that side of the dish.
Walker, 27, was the Giants’ 31st-rounder back in 2018. He’s never ranked among the organization’s top prospects but has steadily posted above-average numbers throughout his minor league tenure. He opened the 2023 season in Sacramento — his second Triple-A stint — and has come roaring out of the gates with 20 1/3 innings of 0.89 ERA ball. He’s punched out 31.1% of his opponents this season, has induced grounders at a 50% clip and has yet to surrender a home run. His 10.8% walk rate is higher than the Giants would like to see, but command hasn’t been a recurring issue, as evidenced by a career 7.7% walk rate in parts of five pro seasons.
The Giants acquired the 26-year-old Stevenson from the A’s in exchange for cash earlier this year and called him up to the big leagues when Mike Yastrzemski hit the injured list. He’s gone hitless in 12 plate appearances and is now a .145/.259/.188 hitter in a still-small sample of 83 Major League plate appearances. Stevenson’s track record in Triple-A is far, far better. He’s appeared in 101 games at the top minor league level and turned in a .271/.382/.386 line with seven homers while going 21-for-26 in stolen bases and walking nearly as often as he’s punched out (15% vs. 18.2%). He’s primarily been a center fielder but has experience in both corners. The Giants have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
As for the slate of injuries announced by San Francisco, none had been heavily foreshadowed. Bart suited up behind the plate for the Giants’ most recent game — his eighth start at catcher in nine games — and went 1-for-3. He’s hitting just .237/.286/.295 on the season and has yet to solidify himself as the franchise catcher the organization envisioned when selecting him with the No. 2 overall pick back in 2018. Bailey’s ascension to the big leagues could put extra pressure on Bart, who’s in his final minor league option year in 2023.
Stripling signed a two-year, $25MM deal over the winter — one that allows him to opt back into free agency at season’s end. His early performance with the Giants makes that overwhelmingly unlikely. In 32 1/3 frames, the right-hander has been torched for a 7.24 ERA, thanks largely to a stunning 10 home runs surrendered in that time. Stripling excelled with the Blue Jays in 2022, pitching to a 3.01 ERA across 134 1/3 frames and allowing just 12 home runs in that time. It’s not clear at this time whether his back has been troubling him throughout the season, though that would certainly explain some of the right-hander’s astronomical downturn.
Ramos, meanwhile, had gone on the minor league injured list a bit more than a week ago, though there’d been no indication he was looking at an absence of this length. The former first-round pick (No. 19 overall in 2017) has struggled badly in 18 big league games dating back to last season, slashing just .152/.205/.196 in 49 trips to the plate. He hasn’t yet found his stride in Triple-A either, batting a combined .244/.313/.367 in a very hitter-friendly setting. He’s been a bit better so far in 2023, batting .262/.333/.385 in 75 plate appearances there, but his generally lackluster minor league performance has begun to obfuscate his long-term role with the club.
Astros To Activate Jose Altuve
The Astros announced Friday that All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve will be reinstated from the injured list prior to tonight’s series opener against the Athletics. Altuve has not yet played in a game during the regular season after suffering a broken thumb when he was hit by a pitch during the World Baseball Classic. While that fracture ultimately required surgery, Altuve was not placed on the 60-day injured list, meaning Houston won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man move to reinstate Altuve.
The original timetable on Altuve was a two-month recovery period from the surgery, plus some rehab work after that. General manager Dana Brown has said recently, however, that Altuve was ahead of schedule. He’ll indeed return just shy of two months after undergoing surgery on March 22 (and two months, to the day, since the injury itself occurred). He’s played in five minor league rehab games between Double-A and Triple-A, and although he’s gone just 2-for-22 in that time, he and the team clearly feel he’s in a good enough place to return to the big league lineup.
Altuve, 33, had a down year during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but has since rebounded to elite levels of performance. Over the past two seasons, he’s batted a combined .288/.368/.510 with 59 home runs and 23 steals — including a sensational .300/.387/.533 output in 2022.
In place of Altuve, the Astros have primarily leaned on utilityman Mauricio Dubon, who has exceeded any and all expectations since taking the reins at second base. The former Red Sox/Brewers prospect and Giants utilityman, acquired from San Francisco in a trade for catcher Michael Papierski last May, has taken 156 turns at the plate and turned in a .309/.333/.389 batting line with ten doubles, a triple, three steals and above-average glovework in the field.
Altuve will take over the lion’s share of playing time at second base, but Dubon’s performance has surely been impressive enough that manager Dusty Baker will frequently work him into the lineup at other spots. In addition to his work at second base, Dubon has big league experience at shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. He figures to spell Altuve and other Astros regulars while moving around the diamond going forward.
The return of Altuve should be a jolt for an Astros lineup that has been surprisingly been below-average. Houston ranks 25th in the Majors with 38 home runs and is tied for 16th with 191 runs scored. Astros hitters rank 16th in batting average (.244), 21st in on-base percentage (.312) and perhaps most surprisingly, 27th in slugging percentage (.377). They’ve received no production whatsoever out of Jose Abreu, who inked a three-year deal worth $58.5MM this winter, and they’ve yet to get a single game out of Michael Brantley, who’s spent the year on the injured list.
A healthy Altuve would certainly lift the Astros’ production across the board, though only time will tell how quickly he can bounce back from that thumb surgery. The eight-time All-Star, six-time Silver Slugger and three-time American League batting champion is in the penultimate season of a $151MM contract extension he signed prior to the 2018 season. He’s being paid $26MM in 2023 and is slated to earn the same salary in 2024 before becoming a free agent — although Brown has said on record multiple times that he hopes to eventually extend Altuve and keep in Houston for the entirety of his career.
Braves Select Charlie Culberson
The Braves announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of veteran utilityman Charlie Culberson from Triple-A Gwinnett and transferred infielder Ehire Adrianza to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Culberson will take the 26-man roster spot of prospect Braden Shewmake, who was optioned to Gwinnett after last night’s game. Adrianza had been on a rehab assignment after landing on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, but he’s now dealing with a left shoulder strain.
Culberson, 34, has struggled in Gwinnett this season, slashing just .204/.234/.255 in 107 trips to the plate. He has a lengthy track record of better output than that in the Majors, however, and is a known commodity for a Braves organization that rostered him from 2018-20. Culberson suited up for 230 games with the Braves and hit .265/.314/.454 in 473 plate appearances, including a career-best year in 2018 that saw him reach career-highs in both home runs (12) and doubles (18).
Over the past few seasons, Culberson’s production has dropped off. He’s posted a .244/.289/.371 batting line in 402 trips to the plate dating back to 2020, mostly spending time with the Rangers during that stretch. The Braves will hope that a return to his native Georgia can also bring about a return to top form.
Culberson has appeared at every position on the diamond other than catcher and center field in his decade-long career, including 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball in mop-up duty (albeit with just one strikeout). Third base has been his primary position in the Majors, but he has more than 400 innings at second base, at shortstop and in left field as well. Culberson has generally struggled against right-handed pitching (.217/.277/.348), but he’s a .285/.313/.431 hitter against lefties in his career.
Adrianza, 33, appeared in just five games with the Braves before landing on the injured list. He went hitless in 11 plate appearances during that time. The versatile switch-hitter is a career .238/.308/.352 batter in 1550 plate appearances between the Twins, Giants, Braves and Nationals. It’s not immediately clear when he’ll be expected to return. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.