Triston McKenzie

Triston McKenzie has passed through waivers unclaimed. He has accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus. Tim Stebbins of MLB.com was among those to pass along the news.

Cleveland designated McKenzie for assignment last week. That the right-hander cleared waivers points to how far his stock has fallen as he’s battled injuries over the past couple seasons. McKenzie is a former top prospect who seemed to break out as a high-end starter in 2022. He posted a 2.96 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning over 31 appearances three years ago. He seemed to be a mid-rotation arm at the very least with a chance to develop into a #1 or #2 starter.

Clearly, that’s not how things have played out. McKenzie barely pitched in 2023. A teres major strain in his shoulder shelved him for a couple months to begin the season. He returned in June but quickly suffered a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow. McKenzie avoided surgery but did not return until the final week of the season.

Hopes for a rebound last year did not materialize. McKenzie’s fastball velocity dropped to a career-low 91.1 MPH. Opponents blitzed him for a 5.11 ERA across 16 starts, and he spent the second half of the season on optional assignment to Columbus. The results weren’t any better in the minors, as he allowed 5.23 earned runs per nine while walking almost 14% of his opponents. That was his final minor league option season.

Cleveland signed him to a $1.95MM arbitration contract in November. That indicated they had some hope that he could turn things around, as his out-of-options status meant he’d need to stick on the active roster or be exposed to waivers. He worked out of the bullpen through the season’s first few weeks. McKenzie’s average fastball speed has jumped closer to 94 MPH in short stints, but neither the command nor the results were there. He allowed seven runs on as many hits through 5 1/3 innings. He walked seven batters and threw three wild pitches while recording just four strikeouts.

McKenzie has between three and five years of major league service time. That means he could decline an outright assignment but would have needed to forfeit the approximate $1.6MM remaining on his salary to test free agency. The 29 other teams all passed on a chance to add him to their big league roster, suggesting he probably would’ve been limited to minor league offers if he hit the market. That made accepting the assignment to Columbus an obvious call. He’ll try to work his way back onto Stephen Vogt’s staff and would become a minor league free agent at the end of the season if the Guards don’t call him up before then.

The Guardians and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. The Octagon client will make a salary of $1.95MM in 2025.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected McKenzie for a salary of $2.4MM next year, but he’ll actually come up shy of that number. That’s usually the case for deals agreed to at this part of the calendar.

Friday evening is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The two sides will still have plenty of time to negotiate the figures but clubs sometimes offer “take it or leave it” style deals ahead of the deadline for players that are borderline cases to be tendered in the first place. Such “pre-tender” deals often come in below projections, as the club is essentially telling the player to take a lower salary or else be non-tendered and sent into free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie to be in, considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He had struck out 27% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8.1% of the time. With the Guardians having a tremendous reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed as though they had found yet another rotation building block.

But McKenzie has had a rough time since then. He was injured for much of 2023, first due to a right teres major strain. He came off the IL and made a pair of starts but went right back on the shelf, that time due to a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehab and was able to come back for two more starts late in the year.

Any hopes for a bounceback in 2024 were quickly dashed. His velocity was down and he clearly wasn’t in a good space mentally. While he wasn’t in pain, he did say in mid-April that the possibility of re-injuring himself was weighing on his mind. He was optioned to the minors in June after having made 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were both far worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly similar strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9% respectively.

Despite the strong form he showed earlier in his career, the injury-wrecked season followed by a dismal performance in 2024 made McKenzie a non-tender candidate, but the two sides will instead reunite. It’s an understandable gambit for the Guards to take. Even for a lower-spending club like them, $1.95MM is almost nothing by MLB standards. If McKenzie can bounce back at all in 2025, he’d be well worth that price. They would also be able to retain him via arbitration again in 2026, so there could be a further payoff if McKenzie can put his recent rough stretch in the past.

McKenzie is now out of options, so the club won’t be able to easily send him to Triple-A again if that bounceback doesn’t come. But given their current roster, there could be a path for him to stick around. Their rotation is in rough shape, an unusual position for the club to be in. Apart from Tanner Bibee, there’s not much they can bank on. Ben Lively had a good year but is a journeyman who’s about to turn 33. Gavin Williams was hurt for much of 2024 and finished with a 4.86 ERA. Joey Cantillo has less than 40 innings in the majors and a track record of terrible control in the minors. Logan Allen had a 5.73 ERA for the year.

Offseason moves could reshape that rotation but McKenzie could earn a role in there if he looks good in the spring. Or perhaps a bullpen move would be an option, as McKenzie’s last three Triple-A appearances in 2024 were in relief. Either way, it’s a modest bet for the club to make with a decent chance at a nice payout. For McKenzie, he can put a bit more money in the bank while staying in familiar environs and not have to spend his winter sweating about finding a new job.