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Tanner Bibee

MLBTR Podcast: Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Guardians’ Tanner Bibee Scratched From Opening Day Start Due To Illness

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The Guardians announced Thursday that right-hander Tanner Bibee has been scratched from his scheduled Opening Day start due to acute gastroenteritis (or, the stomach flu). Cleveland will give the nod to fellow right-hander Ben Lively in his place.

It’s an unfortunate development for the recently extended Bibee, who is just days removed from signing a five-year, $48MM contract extension. It’s unlikely he’ll miss significant time with the illness, but Opening Day starts are a cherished occasion for pitchers. Bibee figures to have opportunities in the future, but this would’ve been his first Opening Day nod. Shane Bieber started for Cleveland in each of the past two seasons — Bibee’s only two years in the majors.

On the flip side, it’s an unexpected chance for Lively to also get his first career Opening Day nod. The notion of Bibee as an Opening Day starter would’ve been beyond far-fetched just a few short years ago. The now-33-year-old righty pitched only one big league inning in 2019 and didn’t pitch in the majors at all from 2020-22. Lively spent the 2020-21 season with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, returned to North America on a minor league deal with the Reds, and didn’t make it back to the majors until 2023. He pitched 88 2/3 innings for Cincinnati that year and logged a 5.38 ERA.

The Guardians still brought Lively in on a major league contract last year, guaranteeing him a $750K salary. He crushed any and all expectations, rattling off 151 innings with a 3.81 earned run average, an 18.7% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate and a 41.9% ground-ball rate. Lively misses bats at a well below-average level, but he has sharp command and managed to strand runners at a much higher rate than average (78.4% compared to league-average 72.1%). He and the Guardians settled on a one-year, $2.25MM contract this offseason to avoid an arbitration hearing.

Bibee and Lively will be joined in Cleveland’s rotation by righties Luis Ortiz and Gavin Williams, as well as southpaw Logan Allen. The bullpen will have several long relief options, including veteran swingman Jakob Junis, prospect Joey Cantillo and former standout righty Triston McKenzie, who’s looking to bounce back after a dismal 2023-24 run and rocky spring training. McKenzie suffered a UCL strain back in 2023 and avoided surgery but has not pitched anywhere close to the same level since sustaining that elbow injury.

Guardians Extend Tanner Bibee

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The Guardians have signed Tanner Bibee to a five-year contract extension that includes a club option for the 2030 season, according to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins.  The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (multiple links) reports that Bibee will receive at least $48MM in guaranteed money.  As per Meisel, the contract breaks down as a $2MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary this season, $4MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028, $21MM in 2029, and then Cleveland holds a $21MM club option for 2030 with a $1MM buyout.

Bibee just turned 26 earlier this month, so he gets a late birthday present in the form of a life-changing contract.  Bibee has exactly two years of MLB service time, and his $48MM deal ranks as the third-most money ever given to a pitcher with between two years and two years and 171 days of service time.  The 2025 season was Bibee’s final pre-arbitration year, so the extension covers all three of his arb-eligible years and at least one of his free agent years.

A fifth-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in the 2021 draft, Bibee quickly became the latest quality arm to emerge from Cleveland’s pitching development factory.  Bibee attracted top-100 prospect attention entering the 2023 season, and he immediately delivered on that potential by posting a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings with the Guardians.  That performance earned him a second-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and subsequently a full year of service time, as per the rules of the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive plan.

There was no sophomore slump in the follow-up, as Bibee had a 3.47 ERA in 173 2/3 frames last season, with improved strikeout and walk rates from his rookie year.  Bibee also got his first turn on the postseason stage, with a 3.45 ERA in 15 2/3 innings during the Guards’ run to the ALCS.  Perhaps the only minor red flag was that Bibee (an average velocity pitcher) saw his fastball drop off rather drastically in effectiveness from 2023 to 2024, but that was balanced out by his cutter becoming an even more effective pitch.

Bibee becomes the latest in a decades-long line of quality players the Cleveland organization has signed to early-career extensions.  Identifying and locking up talent has been perhaps the key plank of the team’s success over the years, given how the smaller-market Guardians rarely sign their players to secondary contracts or big free agent deals.  Jose Ramirez is a rare example of a Guardians player who did ink a second extension to remain in the Cleve, and Ramirez and Bibee are now the only Guards players signed to guaranteed money beyond the 2026 season.  The Guardians do have some control over Emmanuel Clase and Trevor Stephan in the form of club options covering their 2027 and 2028 seasons, as per the terms of their own extensions.

If Ramirez is the cornerstone of the position-player mix, Bibee now has a similar status as the key figure of the Guardians’ rotation for the remainder of the decade.  Bibee already stepped up as a pillar of stability in what was an uncharacteristically so-so year for the Cleveland rotation as a whole, and he’ll look to again be the ace of a staff that includes Ben Lively, Logan Allen, Gavin Williams, and new arrival Luis Ortiz.  Longtime ace Shane Bieber re-signed with the Guards in December and is expected to return around midseason once he fully recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Latest On Guardians’ Rotation

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Ever since losing ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery early in the season, the Guardians have employed something of a patchwork starting staff. In atypical fashion, Cleveland has succeeded this season not necessarily because of its strong rotation but rather in spite of its starting pitching; Guardians starters rank 24th in the majors with a collective 4.49 ERA in 2024. Over the past 30 days, Cleveland starters have a 4.74 ERA. Thanks to an elite bullpen and productive offense, however, Cleveland’s 66-42 record stands as the best mark in Major League Baseball.

Unfortunately for the Guards, there’s more ominous news on the starting pitching front. Right-hander Tanner Bibee, who leads the team in both starts (22) and innings pitched (121 1/3), will have his next start pushed back due to tightness in his right shoulder, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Right now, there’s no indication that a stint on the injured list is in the offing, but any delay due to shoulder or elbow problems are cause for at least some concern with pitchers.

Bibee, in particular, has been vital to Cleveland’s success. He’s not only the staff leader in terms of workload, he’s been the most consistent and most effective arm on the staff in 2024. Journeyman Ben Lively has a narrow edge in ERA (3.42 to Bibee’s 3.48), but Bibee sports the better strikeout and walk rates and has been far more effective at keeping the ball in the yard.

Of last year’s three vaunted top prospects who made the jump to the majors in short succession, Bibee is the only one who has taken another step forward in 2024. Fellow righty Gavin Williams has spent most of the season on the injured list and only just returned last month. Left-hander Logan Allen was optioned to Triple-A Columbus earlier this summer after posting a 5.67 ERA and yielding 1.85 HR/9 through 87 1/3 innings.

The Guardians can hope there’s help on the horizon. Trade acquisition Alex Cobb has been out all season due to recovery from winter hip surgery and some setbacks that occurred along the way. He’s nearly done with a rehab assignment, however. His next and likely final rehab appearance will come tomorrow in Columbus, writes Chris Assenheimer of the Chronicle-Telegram.

Cobb, 36, is in the final season of a contract originally signed with the Giants in the 2021-22 offseason. San Francisco picked up a $10MM club option on him, but his return from that hip procedure has taken longer than anticipated due to a shoulder flare-up and some blister troubles. He’s been quite sharp when healthy over the past three seasons, logging a 3.79 ERA, 22.8% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 394 1/3 innings between the Angels (2021) and Giants (2022-23). If Cobb can produce anywhere near that level in Cleveland, he’ll be a boon for a starting staff that has lacked a steadily productive veteran all season.

While Cobb was the only trade acquisition for Cleveland, he’s not the only midseason addition to the staff. Cleveland signed former Tigers and Giants southpaw Matthew Boyd to a big league deal earlier in the summer as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Boyd, 33, isn’t far from a potential debut himself. He’s now made four rehab starts, most recently tossing 3 2/3 innings with Columbus just yesterday. Boyd breezed through five innings on 64 pitches in Double-A during his third rehab stint and needed 63 pitches to get through yesterday’s 3 2/3 frames in Triple-A. He’s now pitched at three levels in Cleveland’s system and carries a pristine 1.15 ERA and 20-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Tanner Bibee Earns Full Service Year With Rookie Of The Year Runner-Up

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee finished runner-up in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year balloting. While the honor went to Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, the runner-up placement is an important development for Bibee as he will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 campaign.

In order to disincentivize service time manipulation, the MLBPA and MLB agreed to include a prospect promotion incentive in the collective bargaining agreement that was agreed to prior to the 2022 campaign. As a result of the incentive, players with less than sixty days of service time entering the season receive a full year of service time if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, so long as they were featured on at least two preseason Top-100 prospect lists from ESPN, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. Bibee met those qualifications, and as such will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 season despite making his big league debut near the end of April. That leaves Bibee likely set to hit free agency after the 2028 season as things stand.

It’s certainly exciting news for Bibee, 24, who looked like a potential front-of-the-rotation arm for the Guardians across 25 starts this season. The right-hander posted a 2.98 ERA that was 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+, alongside a 3.52 FIP that was 17% better than league average by measure of FIP- in 142 innings of work. Impressive as Bibee was during his first season in the majors, there were some potential red flags in his performance, perhaps most notably a whopping 80% strand rate that was ninth-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings of work this year. His 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate were both right around league average, but his exceptionally low 36.8% groundball rate could leave him vulnerable to major changes in his home-run-to-fly-ball fortunes, particularly if he struggles to replicate his exceptional 6.1% barrel rate.

Still, Bibee figures to be a mid-rotation or better arm for the Guardians going forward even if he’s unable to keep up the incredible production of his rookie season. With Bibee now a year closer to free agency than he otherwise would have been, he figures to have a considerable amount of additional leverage should the Guardians look to engage with him in extension talks. After all, Bibee now figures to hit free agency a few months before his 30th birthday, and free agents who hit the market younger than 30 tend to be in much better position to seek long term commitments from clubs in free agency. Of course, free agency is still a long way away for Bibee and there’s been no indication of the Guardians looking to lock the youngster, who won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2025-26 offseason.

Bibee’s runner-up finish for the award will not earn the Guardians an additional draft pick in the 2024 draft, unlike Henderson’s first-place finish for the Orioles. Baltimore will earn the extra draft pick because Henderson both met the aforementioned criteria to be considered a top prospect preseason and would have qualified for a full year of service time after being on the MLB roster for at least 172 days in 2023. Bibee, meanwhile, was on the roster for just 158 days and would have fallen short of a full year of service time if not for his top-two finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Activate Triston McKenzie From 60-Day IL

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The Guardians activated right-hander Triston McKenzie from the 60-day IL earlier today, per the MLB.com transactions log. McKenzie will take the 40-man roster spot of Tanner Bibee, who was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move, and the active roster spot of Michael Kelly, who was optioned to Triple-A Columbus.

McKenzie, 26, help to power the Guardians to a AL Central crown in 2022 with a breakout campaign. He posted a 2.96 ERA, 29% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.59 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings of work. After that impressive season, McKenzie figured to slot in alongside Shane Bieber at the front of Cleveland’s rotation entering 2023. Unfortunately, McKenzie has been limited to just ten innings of 4.50 ERA ball across two starts this season due to injuries. After missing the first two months of the season with a shoulder strain, McKenzie went back on the shelf shortly thereafter thanks to a UCL sprain and hasn’t pitched in the majors since. That’s set to change today, however, as McKenzie is poised to take the ball for today’s game against the Orioles.

Looking ahead to the offseason, McKenzie will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time in his career this winter and in 2024 figures to join Bieber and youngsters Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen in the club’s starting rotation as the club hopes to rebound from a difficult 2023 campaign that’s seen them post a record of just 74-82 to this point in the season. As for Bibee, the news hardly comes as a surprise as his season had already come to a close due to hip inflammation. Kelly, meanwhile, has provided solid innings for the Guardians while shuttling between Triple-A and the majors this year, with a 3.78 ERA and a 2.96 FIP in 14 appearances.

Guardians Place Tanner Bibee On Injured List

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The Guardians have placed right-hander Tanner Bibee on the 15-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Right-hander James Karinchak has been recalled in a corresponding move. With only two weeks remaining on the schedule, this move brings Bibee’s season to an end.

The Guards came into 2023 with their sights set on contention after winning the Central last year, but it seems they will ultimately fall short of that goal, currently seven games back of the Twins in the division and further out in the Wild Card picture. A significant issue for the club’s disappointing season has been the starting rotation. Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill all missed significant time due to injuries, while other pitchers struggled to fill the void.

The club fell in the standings and seemed to wave a white flag when they traded Aaron Civale to the Rays at the deadline. But they hovered close enough to contention in August that they grabbed Lucas Giolito off waivers from the Angels to try to mount a late-season charge that hasn’t really come to fruition.

The club was forced to turn to rookies like Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen in order to fill the void earlier in the year. Bibee has been the relative workhorse of the staff, with his 25 starts and 142 innings pitched both leading the club amid all the turmoil. It was a very successful first season for him, as he posted a 2.98 earned run average in that time, striking out 24.1% of opponents while limiting walks to a 7.7% clip.

Since he’s going to miss the remainder of the year, those stats will now go down as the totality of his work for the season. The Guardians should now be able to go into the winter with their 2024 rotation picture looking strong, at least on paper. Bieber and McKenzie are both currently on rehab assignments and will hopefully have better injury luck next year. McKenzie will qualify for arbitration this winter while Bieber is set for his final arb year. Bieber has been speculated as a trade candidate since the Guards frequently trade away pitchers as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, but his value is at a low ebb due to his health concerns and diminished results this year. He’ll also be making a significant salary, due a raise on this year’s $10.01MM figure.

But alongside those two and Quantrill, who is also arb eligible, the Guards should be encouraged by the development of their rookies. In addition to Bibee’s aforementioned results, Allen posted a 3.60 ERA over 23 starts while Williams has a 3.29 ERA in his 16 outings. That gives them six viable starters in next year’s mix.

Without Bibee, the Guards may need another starter to slot into the rotation for the final two weeks alongside Williams, Allen, Giolito and Quantrill. As mentioned, Bieber and McKenzie are on rehab assignments and could be reinstated. Joey Cantillo, Hunter Gaddis and Cody Morris are also on the 40-man and in Triple-A, though Morris has been pitching shorter stints out of the bullpen lately.

Central Notes: Bibee, Madrigal, Yelich, Perez

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee exited yesterday’s game due to right hip tightness in the sixth inning of yesterday’s win over the Rangers, as relayed by MLB.com. Bibee is scheduled to undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue.

It’s the latest negative development for a Guardians rotation that’s been plagued by injury woes all year. Right-handers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both currently on the 60-day injured list, while righty Cal Quantrill also missed significant time with injury earlier this season. With the club’s three most established starters having spent time on the shelf this season, Bibee has become the rotation’s anchor during his rookie season. The 24-year-old youngster sports an impressive 2.98 ERA that’s 41% better than league average across 25 starts this year. While his 3.52 FIP and and slightly inflated 80% strand rate indicate there could be some regression in Bibee’s future, his solid 24.1% strikeout rate and strong 7.7% walk rate give him the look of a strong mid-rotation starter at the very least.

If Bibee’s injury ends his 2023 campaign, it will have certainly been a successful one that figures to garner some attention in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The Guardians are unlikely to be meaningfully impacted by his availability for the remainder of this season, however. Considering Cleveland sits seven games back of the Twins in the AL Central with just thirteen games left to play, it would take a miracle for the club to make the postseason even in the weak AL Central division.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal exited yesterday’s 13-inning marathon loss to the Diamondbacks with right hamstring tightness, as relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal’s balky right hamstring has caused him issues throughout his young big league career: it required season-ending surgery while he was with the White Sox back in 2021, and he missed just under a month with a strain earlier this season. A former top prospect who was selected fourth overall in the 2018 draft, Madrigal has slashed just .283/.311/.352 (83 wRC+) in 294 big league plate appearances this season. That being said, the 26-year-old has hit better since returning to the big leagues from an optional assignment in early June, slashing .271/.325/.379 with a minuscule 7.7% strikeout rate. With Jeimer Candelario already on the shelf, the Cubs figure to primarily rely on Patrick Wisdom at third base for the time being if Madrigal is out for an extended period.
  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has appeared in just one game since September 8 due to low back stiffness, and manager Craig Counsell (as relayed by MLB.com) indicates that the 31-year-old is still day-to-day despite starting Friday’s game against the Nationals. “At this point, we need 100 percent of Christian Yelich.” Counsell told reporters yesterday, “It’s not the time to go out there less than that.” Though Yelich is still nowhere near the level of production he enjoyed in 2018 and 2019 when he looked like one of the best players in the sport, the veteran outfielder has enjoyed a bounce-back of sorts in 2023, slashing a solid .272/.363/.432 with a wRC+ of 116. The club has utilized Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the outfield alongside regular fixtures Sal Frelick and Mark Canha while Yelich has been unavailable.
  • Royals catcher Salvador Perez exited yesterday’s game against the Astros after a foul ball off the bat of Jose Altuve struck his mask in the fifth inning. Perez began to feel lightheaded before exiting the game to undergo the concussion protocol, though the Royals later announced that Perez had avoided a concussion. Per MLB.com, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters that Perez “got his bell rung a little bit” but that Perez was feeling fine by the end of the game. It’s possible, then, that Perez returns to the lineup as soon as this afternoon. Perez has slashed .252/.291/.415 with a wRC+ of 84 in 551 trips to the plate this year while splitting time between catcher, first base, and DH.
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