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Jose Hernandez

Dodgers Reinstate Joe Kelly, Outright Jose Hernandez

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July 19: The Dodgers announced today that Joe Kelly has been reinstated from the injured list to take the 40-man spot of Hernandez. Michael Petersen was optioned to make an active roster spot for Kelly. Their 40-man is now full again so they will have to open another spot when Ryan is officially promoted.

July 18: The Dodgers passed lefty Jose Hernandez through outright waivers and assigned him to their Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Hernandez had already been pitching in the ACL, building up after a layoff between the time L.A. acquired him from Pittsburgh and he began pitching with an affiliate. The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster, which is presumably earmarked for top pitching prospect River Ryan, who’s slated to make his big league debut this weekend.

Hernandez, 26, was a Dodgers signee out of the Dominican Republic back in 2016. He spent seven years in the system before being selected by the Pirates in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. Pittsburgh carried Hernandez in their bullpen all season in 2023, letting him work 50 2/3 low-leverage innings while pitching to a 4.97 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.

By rostering him all season, the Pirates gained the right to option Hernandez in subsequent seasons. However, the lefty pitched just 5 1/3 innings over seven MLB appearances this season and was hit hard with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis, yielding a dozen runs in 15 1/3 innings while working with diminished velocity. The Bucs designated him for assignment in June and wound up trading him back to the Dodgers in exchange for cash.

The Dodgers can now keep Hernandez in their system as a depth option without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him. He’s had a tough 2024 season, but last year’s K-BB profile in the majors was interesting; those strikeout and walk rates were near-identical matches for his marks in his most recent full minor league season with the Dodgers back in 2022, when he posted respective 27.8% and 10% strikeout and walk rates in 59 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. Hernandez yielded just a 3.32 ERA that season and induced grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. This year’s velocity dip is concerning, but there’s still reason to think he could eventually emerge as a viable bullpen option somewhere down the road.

Dodgers Acquire Jose Hernandez From Pirates

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The Dodgers announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash. Los Angeles transferred Ryan Brasier to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Pittsburgh designated Hernandez for assignment earlier in the week when they claimed Dennis Santana off waivers.

Los Angeles took that opportunity to bring Hernandez back to his original organization. The Dodgers signed the Dominican-born southpaw as an amateur in May 2016. Hernandez spent the next six-plus seasons in the L.A. farm system, topping out at Double-A Tulsa. He tallied plenty of punchouts in the low minors but never consistently found the strike zone. The Dodgers left him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2022 season, allowing other clubs to take a flier in the Rule 5 draft.

Pittsburgh selected Hernandez with the third Rule 5 pick that December (behind Thaddeus Ward and another former Dodger farmhand, Ryan Noda). The Bucs secured his long-term contractual rights by carrying him in the MLB bullpen for all of last season. Hernandez showed the ability to miss bats at the MLB level, fanning 27.8% of opposing hitters behind a 12.5% swinging strike rate. He walked just under 10% of batters faced and surrendered nine homers in 50 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.97 earned run average.

The Pirates gained the right to option Hernandez to the minors after his first MLB campaign. They shuttled him between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis for the season’s first couple months. Hernandez tossed 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts and walks apiece at the big league level. He has been tagged for 12 runs over 15 1/3 Triple-A frames despite punching out 21 of the 75 hitters he’s faced (a solid 28% rate).

It was moderately surprising to see the Bucs move on from Hernandez not long after they satisfied the Rule 5 requirements. His velocity has been slightly down, perhaps contributing to the move. As a rookie, Hernandez averaged 82.9 MPH on his slider (which he uses as his primary pitch) and 94.6 MPH on his fastball. Those speeds were respectively at 81.6 MPH and 93.1 MPH during his major league work this year.

Hernandez has just over one year of service and is in his first of three minor league option years. The Dodgers can keep him in Triple-A Oklahoma City for the foreseeable future if he holds his 40-man roster spot.

The team essentially had an open roster spot thanks to Brasier’s injury. The veteran righty has been out since April 28 after suffering a significant strain of his right calf. He has yet to begin a minor league rehab stint. Brasier will be eligible for reinstatement two weeks from now — the 60-day minimum is backdated to his initial IL placement — but it’s not clear if he’ll be ready by that point.

Pirates Claim Dennis Santana, Designate Jose Hernandez

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The Pirates announced they’ve claimed reliever Dennis Santana off waivers from the Yankees. Pittsburgh designated Jose Hernandez for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot. The Bucs also recalled Ryder Ryan from Triple-A Indianapolis to take the bullpen spot opened by yesterday’s designation of Ben Heller.

Santana, 28, signed a minor league deal with New York over the offseason. He cracked the Yankee roster within the first week of the season. Santana tossed 27 1/3 innings, typically in middle relief, in the Bronx. While he had a decent run through the season’s first month, he’s run into harder times since the calendar flipped to May. Santana allowed 6.26 earned runs per nine while striking out a personal-low 16.5% of batters faced altogether.

The right-hander has posted an ERA above 5.00 in three consecutive seasons. Santana has nevertheless caught the attention of various teams as a middle innings target. Pittsburgh will be his fifth team dating back to 2021. Santana throws relatively hard, sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his sinker and four-seam fastball. Until this season, that had generally translated into average swing-and-miss rates against MLB hitters.

Santana has exhausted his minor league options. He’ll step directly into Pittsburgh’s bullpen once he reports to the team. The Pirates need to keep him in the majors or again send him into DFA limbo. Santana surpassed the four-year service threshold this season and would be eligible for arbitration for two more years if he pitches well enough to hold the roster spot.

Hernandez, a 6’3″ southpaw, was the third pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. The Bucs stashed him in low-leverage relief last season to gain his long-term contractual rights from the Dodgers. While Hernandez struggled to a 4.97 ERA across 50 2/3 innings, his 27.8% strikeout percentage was reason for optimism that he could be a long-term bullpen piece.

The 26-year-old has had a tough follow-up season, most of which has been spent in Indianapolis. Hernandez has allowed 12 runs over 15 1/3 Triple-A frames. He has fanned 21 of 75 batters faced (a solid 28% clip) but walked nine. Hernandez has been limited to 5 1/3 frames of two-run ball at the MLB level this season. His 81.6 MPH average slider velocity and 93.1 MPH fastball speed are each down more than a mile per hour relative to last year.

Pittsburgh will trade Hernandez or put him on waivers within the next few days. He’s in his first of three option years and has a solid track record of missing bats in the minors, so it wouldn’t be surprising if another team takes a low-cost flier.

Pirates Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Pirates announced a series of roster moves today. They recalled catcher Henry Davis, outfielder Jack Suwinski and infielder Liover Peguero from Triple-A Indianapolis. They also selected the contract of right-handed reliever Ben Heller from Indy. In one corresponding move, they placed infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae on the 10-day injured list with a right wrist sprain, retroactive to June 3. Outfielder Michael A. Taylor went on the paternity list, opening another roster spot, while left-hander Jose Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A and catcher Grant Koch was designated for assignment.

Additionally, the club reinstated catcher Jason Delay from the 60-day IL and optioned him to Triple-A. To open a 40-man spot for him, left-hander Marco Gonzales was transferred to the 60-day IL.

The news on Davis was reported on the weekend. Manager Derek Shelton was on 93.7 The Fan earlier today, as relayed by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and revealed the news about Suwinski, Peguero, Bae and Taylor.

Davis, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 draft, returns to the majors after spending a bit more than a month in Triple-A. He’d gotten out to not only a rough start in 2024 (.162/.280/.206 in 83 plate appearances) but to his overall big league career. The former Louisville star also struggled through 255 plate appearances last season in his debut campaign and carries a disappointing .201/.297/.319 slash to this point in the majors.

Of course, that’s a small sample of just 338 plate appearances — far too limited a data set to make any broad-reaching conclusions about Davis’ long-term outlook. He looked reinvigorated during his short time in Indianapolis, utterly laying waste to International League pitching. In 101 turns at the dish, Davis recorded an outrageous .296/.436/.642 batting line with seven home runs and seven doubles.

Davis has long been viewed as a bat-first catching prospect, which admittedly makes his early struggles at the plate concerning but also creates some optimism that he’ll eventually turn a corner in the batter’s box. The Pirates’ hope is that this brief Indy reset will be a catalyst for just such a turnaround. And with Joey Bart now joining fellow catcher Endy Rodriguez on the injured list, Davis should have a clear opportunity to prove he can carry some of those gains over to the MLB level.

Suwinski will return after just a week in the minors. He was optioned last week after struggling to a brutal .174/.268/.297 slash to begin what he hoped would be a strong follow-up to last year’s 26-homer breakout. His rate stats were better in Indianapolis, as he hit .250/.276/.429 with a homer and a triple in his seven-game sample, but Suwinski also fanned in 13 of his 29 plate appearances (44.8%). That’s not the type of progress for which he and the team were hoping, but Bae’s injury created an outfield need and forced the team’s hand.

Heller, 32, has pitched in parts of five major league seasons and has a 3.06 ERA in 50 big league innings, albeit with a below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 11.8% walk rate. Metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him north of 5.00. He’s benefited from some decent fortune on balls in play (.261 BABIP) and a sky-high 89% strand rate that’s about 17 percentage points higher than average.

That said, Heller has also posted genuinely intriguing numbers in Indianapolis this year — none more so than his enormous 43% strikeout rate. Through 18 1/3 frames, he’s yielded a 4.91 ERA, but most of the damage against him came in one stretch of four straight appearances in which he allowed runs. He’s since rattled off 5 2/3 shutout frames, fanning 10 opponents along the way against four walks. Command is still an issue for Heller, but his 10.1% walk rate in Triple-A is a bit better than his big league standards.

Koch was only just called to the majors for his big league debut when Bart landed on the injured list. The 27-year-old former fifth-rounder appeared in three games but did not collect a hit in eight trips to the plate. He’s a .236/.295/.362 hitter in parts of two Triple-A seasons. The Pirates will have a week to trade Koch, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Delay played a prominent role with the Pirates over the past couple seasons and hit .251/.319/.347 in 187 plate appearances last year. That’s respectable production for a backup catcher, but Delay is generally considered just that — a backup option behind the dish — whereas Davis is the potential future if not at catcher then perhaps at first base or in right field. The Pirates understandably want to give Davis as many opportunities as possible, and he’ll now slide back into the primary catcher role with veteran Yasmani Grandal backing him up.

As for Gonzales, his move to the 60-day IL was largely procedural. The team needed a 40-man spot to reinstate Delay, and Gonzales has been on the 15-day IL since April 14. He’ll be eligible to return later this month, but he’s yet to begin throwing. He’s out with a strained left forearm muscle and may not be back until the season’s second half at this rate.

Pirates Option Jack Suwinski

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve optioned struggling outfielder Jack Suwinski to Triple-A Indianapolis. Left-hander Jose Hernandez has been recalled from Indy in his place.

It’s a notable turn of events for the Pirates and Suwinski, who looked to have emerged as a potential core piece for the Bucs just last season. Suwinski mashed his way into an everyday outfield role, clubbing 26 home runs and drawing plenty of walks en route to a .224/.339/.454 slash (112 wRC+). Everything’s gone in the wrong direction for the slugger this season, however. In his first 157 trips to the plate, Suwinski has posted an anemic .174/.268/.297 batting line.

The decline at the plate hasn’t followed the typical pattern. Suwinski has actually greatly improved on last year’s problematic 32.2% strikeout rate, punching out in a more palatable (albeit still higher-than-average) 25.5% of his plate appearances. He’s making contact at a much higher rate both on pitches within the strike zone (88% in ’24, 81.3% in ’23) and off the plate (60.2% in ’24, 52.7% in ’23).

Counter-intuitive as it may seem, that improved plate coverage has resulted in some ugly trends that have tamped down his production. For starters, Suwinski is swinging more in general. His 28.9% chase rate is lower than average but still up considerably from last year’s excellent 22% mark. That’s likely contributed to a dip in walk rate, which sat at a huge 14% a year ago but is down to 11.5% in 2023 (still about three percentage points north of average). It seems there’s been a conscious effort to be more assertive at the plate. Only eight qualified hitters swung less often than Suwinski in 2023, but this year there are 79 qualified bats swinging less often.

Suwinski’s more aggressive approach hasn’t generated quality contact, however. His ground-ball rate has spiked from 27.9% all the way to 44.4%. His line-drive rate is down two percentage points, while his fly-ball rate has plummeted by 14.2% percentage points (from 53.6% to 39.4%). He’s no longer elevating the ball at a strong rate, and when he does make contact, it’s been weaker in nature. He’s lost 2.4 mph off his average exit velocity and seen his hard-hit rate fall from 43.4% to 36.4%. After barreling up 15.7% of his batted balls last year (as measured by Statcast), he’s at just 6.1% in 2024.

Whether the more aggressive approach was intended to take advantage of Suwinski’s clearly plus power, to improve his batting average, some combination of the two or perhaps has simply been borne of frustration at his slow start, the results aren’t there. He’ll head to Indianapolis for now in an effort to get back on track and hopefully recapture some of the form that made him the Bucs’ top power threat just last season.

From a service time vantage point, the demotion won’t alter Suwinski’s path to free agency. He entered the season with 1.118 years of MLB service, meaning he only needed 54 days on the active roster or injured list to reach two years of service and remain on pace for free agency following the 2028 season. He reached that number earlier this week, so even in the unlikely event that he stays in the minors all year, he’d still have stayed on his prior free-agent trajectory. It’s at least possible this could cost him Super Two designation, as he’d have been on the Super Two bubble with 2.118 years of service this coming offseason, but he could remain on that bubble if his optional assignment is short enough. He’ll have to spend at least 10 days in the minors, unless he’s recalled sooner as a replacement for someone who’s being placed on the injured list.

With Suwinski no longer in the outfield fold, the Pirates figure to use a rotation of Bryan Reynolds, Michael A. Taylor, Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe and Edward Olivares. Taylor and Bae are likeliest to see time in center. Reynolds has split his time between the two corners this season but will be on the lineup on a near everyday basis. Olivares and Joe can rotate through the free corner spot, with Joe also an option at first base and either a candidate to stand in as the designated hitter (should Andrew McCutchen need a day off).

Pirates Designate Wil Crowe For Assignment

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July 21: Pittsburgh officially designated Crowe for assignment Friday afternoon. They also activated Jose Hernandez from the 15-day injured list while optioning righty Yohan Ramirez to Triple-A.

July 19: The Pirates are going to designate right-hander Wil Crowe for assignment, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Crowe has been on the 60-day injured list since April and has been on a rehab assignment of late, but the Bucs evidently don’t plan on putting him back on their roster.

Crowe, 28, was a starter earlier in his career but switched to a relief role last year. He tossed 76 innings over 60 appearances for the Pirates with a 4.38 earned run average. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were both a couple of ticks below average but he kept the ball on the ground at a 49.8% rate. Those solid results moved him up the club’s bullpen chart, allowing him to record four saves and 16 holds on the season.

This year, he made just five appearances before landing on the IL due right shoulder discomfort. He began a rehab assignment a couple of weeks ago and made five appearances in the minors with a 1.59 ERA, but it seems the club doesn’t want to put him back on the 40-man roster. The Pirates have been funneling various prospects to the big league level in recent weeks, which has involved selecting the contracts of players like Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales and Quinn Priester, perhaps crowding things out too much for Crowe.

The Bucs will now have a week to trade Crowe or pass him through waivers. He still has an option year and has yet to qualify for arbitration, which could perhaps give him some appeal to clubs looking for an extra depth arm. If he were to clear waivers, he would not have the right to elect free agency since he has not previously been outrighted in his career and it still shy of three years of major league service time.

Pirates Place Jose Hernandez On 15-Day IL, Select Ryan Borucki

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The Pirates placed left-hander Jose Hernandez on the 15-day injured list due to a right calf strain.  Taking Hernandez’s place in the bullpen is veteran Ryan Borucki, whose contract was selected from Triple-A Indianapolis.  No further transaction was necessary to create room for Borucki, since the Pirates already had only 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Hernandez was the third pick in last December’s Rule 5 draft, with Pittsburgh selecting the southpaw out of the Dodgers’ farm system.  The 25-year-old hadn’t yet pitched in Triple-A before jumping right to the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, but Hernandez has looked very sharp in his rookie season.  Over 27 1/3 innings out of the Bucs’ bullpen, Hernandez has a 2.63 ERA, an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate, and a borderline elite 5.5% walk rate.  Batters haven’t made much hard contact against Hernandez, and his slider has quickly become a devastating weapon.

R5 draft picks must remain on a team’s big league roster for the entire season or else be offered back to their original club, and while a Rule 5 player can be on the IL, they have to clock at least 90 days on the active roster.  Hernandez isn’t quite at 90 days yet, but he’ll easily clear that threshold assuming his calf injury isn’t serious.  Beyond Hernandez’s R5 status is the bigger issue of how his absence will further impact an injury-riddled Pirates bullpen — Hernandez, Colin Holderman, and Rob Zastryzny on the 15-day IL, while Jarlin Garcia (who has yet to pitch at all this season) and Wil Crowe are on the 60-day IL.

Borucki signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in May, after he elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate.  Chicago inked the lefty to a minor league deal during the offseason, and designated him for assignment just a few days after selecting his contract to the 26-man roster (without Borucki ever appearing in a game).

Borucki now looks primed to make his first official appearance of the 2023 campaign, which will make it six MLB seasons for the left-hander.  Borucki has a 4.45 ERA over 170 career innings with the Blue Jays and Mariners, working exclusively as a reliever since 2020.  There has been a lot of inconsistency in Borucki’s work over the years, as he has very prone to allowing home runs and has occasionally struggled with control.

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

Rule 5 Draft Update: April 2023

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Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — an annual avenue for teams to potentially acquire talent from other organizations whose decision-makers did not place them on the 40-man roster. For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of 15 Rule 5 players and where they stand a couple of weeks into the 2023 season. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

Currently on a Major League Roster

  • Thaddeus Ward, RHP (Nationals, from the Red Sox): Ward was one of Boston’s best prospects a few years back but went the better part of two years without pitching due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and Tommy John surgery in 2021. He impressed in 51 minor league frames in his 2022 return, and many Red Sox fans were irked not to see him protected last November. The Nats selected him with the top pick in the Rule 5, and after a solid spring he’s tossed 5 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on four hits and a couple of walks. Ward is averaging 94.3 mph with his heater and has fanned seven of his 23 opponents (30.4%). The Nats are the exact type of rebuilding team that can afford to carry a player all season even if he struggles, so it’s quite likely that Ward will spend the year in their bullpen — and potentially get a look in the rotation sometime down the road.
  • Ryan Noda, 1B/OF (Athletics, from the Dodgers): Like the Nats, the A’s aren’t going anywhere this season, so there’s every incentive for them to give Noda a long audition. The 27-year-old slugger hit .259/.395/.474 in Triple-A last season, and while he fanned in 28.2% of his plate appearances he also walked at a gaudy 16% clip. It’s been more of the same with the A’s. He walked 11 times but fanned on 26 occasions in 69 spring plate appearances. So far in the regular season, he’s belted a pair of homers, drawn seven walks and whiffed a dozen times in 37 A’s plate appearances. The A’s aren’t ones to shy away from a three-true-outcomes skill set, and they’ll see if Noda can do the Jack Cust dance for them moving forward.
  • Jose Hernandez, LHP (Pirates, from the Dodgers): A rocky spring didn’t dissuade the Pirates from carrying Hernandez on their Opening Day roster, and so far it seems wise that they looked past that 8.18 Grapefruit League ERA. In 5 1/3 frames, Hernandez has held opponents to one run on five hits and a walk with four strikeouts. He’s averaged 96 mph on his heater. The 25-year-old Hernandez used that power fastball and a sharp slider to fan nearly 30% of his opponents in Double-A last year, and the Bucs are currently trusting him as one of two lefties in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. He’s already picked up his first big league hold.
  • Blake Sabol, C/OF (Giants, from the Pirates): Sabol was technically selected by the Reds with the fourth pick in the draft, but Cincinnati and San Francisco had an agreed-upon deal sending Sabol to the Giants for a player to be named later. (Such swaps are common in the Rule 5 Draft.) The 25-year-old Sabol split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A in Pittsburgh, batting a combined .284/.363/.497 with 66 games behind the dish and another 22 in the outfield. A monster spring showing (.348/.475/.630) and an injury to Mitch Haniger set the stage for Sabol to open the season in left field for the Giants. He’s hitting just .194/.265/.290 through his first 10 games and has split time between catcher and outfield pretty evenly. If the Giants feel he can legitimately play both spots, that’s just the type of versatility they crave when constructing their roster.
  • Mason Englert, RHP (Tigers, from the Rangers): Englert isn’t a power arm but had a strong showing in the Rangers’ High-A and (briefly) Double-A rotations in 2022, when he pitched to a combined 3.64 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. The Tigers have used him out of the bullpen so far, and the results haven’t been great. He’s surrendered six runs in just 7 1/3 innings, including a trio of long balls. Englert was a 2018 fourth-rounder who’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible Detroit could get him a look in a starting role at some point. Englert entered the 2023 season with just 15 1/3 innings above A-ball, so some struggles aren’t exactly surprising.
  • Kevin Kelly, RHP (Rays, from the Guardians): In a shocking and unprecedented development, the Rays look like they’ve plucked a pitcher from obscurity and perhaps found a keeper. Small sample caveats abound this time of season, but Kelly has now made four relief appearances of at least two innings (including today’s game) and yielded three runs on eight hits and no walks with seven punchouts. That comes on the heels of a 3.38 ERA and 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 spring innings. The Guardians have a deep farm system and perennial 40-man crunch, which can lead to players like this going unprotected; Kelly posted a 2.04 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 57 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
  • Gus Varland, RHP (Brewers, from the Dodgers): The Brewers looked past Varland’s woeful 5.98 ERA in Double-A across the past two seasons, betting on the right-hander’s raw stuff rather than his results. So far, so good. Varland obliterated opposing hitters in spring training, whiffing a comical 17 of the 35 batters he faced (48.6%). So far during the regular season, he’s allowed a pair of runs on eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts through six innings out of the bullpen. Varland is averaging 95.9 mph on his fastball and has kept 11 of the 22 balls in play against him on the ground.

On the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP (Marlins, from the Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergoing treatment and has said he hopes to “use his platform to provide hope and inspiration to others who fight their battle with cancer.” Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP (Phillies, from the Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (Cardinals, from the Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez is a remarkable story. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. During his past two seasons in Mexico, he hurled 73 innings with a 2.71 ERA — including 44 2/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball with a 43.2% strikeout rate there in 2022. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal in August, but because of his prior minor league experience from 2007-15, he was Rule 5-eligible and selected by the Cardinals. A right shoulder issue has Rodriguez on the 15-day IL right now. He’s yet to pitch for the Cardinals this year.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

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