Steve Adams | MLB Trade Rumors

Latest On Orioles’ Front Office Overhaul, Managerial Search

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2018 at 9:09am CDT

The Orioles have fired farm director Brian Graham, who served as the interim general manager between the dismissal of Dan Duquette and the hiring of Mike Elias, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). The move comes not long after the decision not to retain scouting director Gary Rajsich for the 2019 season, as reported by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The pair of personnel changes marks the latest in a series of moves designed to bring about an organizational overhaul in Baltimore. Graham has been the team’s director of player development since the 2013 season and been with the team since 2007, while Rajsich was hired by Duquette as the team’s director of scouting back in 2011.

With Graham and Rajsich both out the door, two of the three top-ranking executives mentioned in the Orioles’ press release announcing a “transition in baseball operations leadership” are now out of the organization; of that trio, only vice president of baseball operations Brady Anderson remains. The departures of Graham and Rajsich give the Orioles another pair of significant vacancies to fill — all while the team continues its search for a replacement for the also-dismissed Buck Showalter.

Adding a manager is the organization’s top priority at present, Elias said last night in an interview on 105.7 FM The Fan in Baltimore (links via Kubatko and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun). Elias declined to delve into specifics, as one would expect. However, the newly hired Baltimore GM did acknowledge that he, with assistance from new assistant GM Sig Mejdal and others in the front office, has pared the list of initial candidates down “quite a bit.” Elias added that he feels the Orioles are “well past phase one of this search.”

Once a manager is in place, that hire will work alongside Elias and the front office to fill in what will in all likelihood be a significantly revamped coaching staff for the 2019 season. Paired with the need to hire a new farm director and scouting director (and the subsequent new hires that’ll be made to work underneath that pair), Elias, Mejdal and the remnants of the prior regime face a fairly daunting amount of administrative work in the coming weeks. That, of course, is in addition to the obvious roster machinations that need to be made for a team that lost a franchise-record number of games in 2018.

Chief among those decisions is likely determining who will be selected with the top pick in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. By virtue of finishing the 2018 season with the worst record in baseball, Baltimore has the top pick, and Elias confirmed in last night’s interview that the O’s will indeed be making a selection.

Padres To Sign Garrett Richards

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 9:37pm CDT

DECEMBER 7: The signing is now official. Richards will earn $7MM in the first year of the deal and $8.5MM in the second, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The contract includes $250K bonuses for every start he makes from his 21st through his 30th.

NOVEMBER 29, 7:14pm: Heyman tweets that Richards will be guaranteed $15.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM worth of incentives on the deal.

3:59pm: It’s a straight two-year deal for Richards, Passan further tweets. With incentives, the contract can max out at a total of $18MM.

3:49pm: Richards’ two-year agreement comes with a hefty guarantee of roughly $15MM, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That’s a new precedent for a player coming off Tommy John surgery, though the timing of Richards’ surgery also makes it at least plausible that he could return to the mound before the end of the 2019 season.

3:45pm: The Padres have reached an agreement with free-agent right-hander Garrett Richards, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The ISE Baseball client was reported earlier today to be a target of both the Padres and the division-rival Dodgers.

Richards may not pitch in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid July, but other free-agent starters in his situation have recently landed two-year guaranteed deals with an eye toward contributing in the second season of that pact. Namely, both Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly signed two-year, $10MM contracts last winter (with the Twins and Cubs, respectively), while Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $4MM pact with the Rays an offseason prior. All three of those hurlers had undergone Tommy John surgery and were known to be out for the vast majority of the first season of those two-year deals.

A former top 50 overall draft pick (No. 42 in 2009), Richards established himself on the Angels’ pitching staff in 2013 and looked to be one of the more promising young arms in the American League by the end of the 2015 campaign. In 2014-15, the righty pitched to a combined 3.18 ERA through 376 innings (58 starts) and averaged 8.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 along the way.

Injuries, however, have limited the now-30-year-old Richards to just 138 2/3 innings in the three seasons since that time. He’s been quite good when healthy enough to take the mound — 3.05 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.59 FIP — but by the lengthy slate of arm injuries that has slowed his career now make him an upside play in free agency rather than the potential frontline starter many expected he’d become after that strong 2013-15 showing.

The most recent ulnar collateral ligament injury for Richards was actually the second of his career; he also suffered a UCL tear back in 2016 but opted to undergo stem cell treatment to avoid surgery. While that did stave off Tommy John surgery for awhile, Richards was ultimately forced to undergo the procedure this past summer when he was diagnosed with another tear.

For the Padres, the addition of Richards dovetails nicely with the organization’s projected timeline to contend. The Friars have begun to mix in some win-now moves with their longstanding efforts to rebuild the organization and were said this offseason to be eyeing pitchers who can help them contend in 2020, when much of the upcoming wave of young talent has surfaced at the MLB level. The Friars have little in the way of rotation certainty at the moment, so it’s still possible that they could add another arm on a multi-year deal — likely one who’d still be in his prime into 2020 and beyond. They’ve been tied to younger free-agent starters like Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, and they’ve also been rumored to have interest in Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.

Dodgers, Indians Have Reportedly Discussed Trade Scenarios Involving Corey Kluber

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 9:26pm CDT

The Indians’ top three starters have seen their names hit the rumor mill this winter, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes that the Dodgers are among the teams who’ve discussed various trade concepts with Cleveland in the past few days. Specifically, one iteration involves both Corey Kluber and Yasiel Puig, per Morosi, though it’s clear that there are still some gaps to be filled in with regard to that specific package, as there’s no logical scenario in which Puig is any sort of centerpiece to a Kluber trade.

In fact, while the Indians have obvious outfield needs, it’s difficult to see a player as expensive as Puig being a prime target to fill that need. The reported willingness to listen to offers on Kluber and others seemed to stem from a desire to create payroll flexibility and add controllable young talent. Puig checks neither of those boxes and is a clear downgrade from Kluber in terms of overall value. While Kluber will earn $17MM next season, Puig is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.3MM himself. Shedding a mere $6MM or so in payroll wouldn’t be of that much benefit to Cleveland unless the Dodgers were to add significant pre-arbitration talent and/or take on some additional money in return.

Morosi writes that the Dodgers would likely be willing to part with lefty Alex Wood and pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez, but that pairing, again, presents issues. Namely, Wood is projected to earn $9MM in arbitration and, like Puig, is a free agent next winter. He’d be a fine one-year replacement for Kluber, but it’s the idea of moving Kluber to acquire a pair of expensive veterans who have just one season of team control remaining isn’t logical on its surface, unless there are other moving parts at play.

Alvarez, meanwhile, was touted as a mega-prospect when he signed for $16MM out of Cuba (plus a matching $16MM luxury tax penalty), but he’s yet to top 100 innings in any of his three seasons in the Dodgers’ minor league ranks. Beyond that, the 2018 campaign was far and away his worst since signing; in 48 1/3 innings at the Double-A level, Alvarez posted a 4.66 ERA with 52 strikeouts against an alarming total of 43 walks. There’s still ample time for the 22-year-old to realize his potential, but he’s not the type of young player who’d headline a package for one of the game’s elite pitchers.

The Dodgers do have the type of young talent that Cleveland would covet in any deal involving Kluber, of course, and it seems likely that any talks centering around him, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer have involved several names. But a deal including any of Puig, Wood or Alvarez would require the addition of some prominent young, controllable players in order to sufficiently pique Cleveland’s interest. Furthermore, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland adds the salary requirements that would come with both Puig and Wood in the same deal without some additional financial considerations coming into play.

Mariners Grant Casey Lawrence His Release To Pursue Opportunity In Japan

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 7:43pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they’ve released right-hander Casey Lawrence so he can pursue an opportunity in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Obviously, it’s not the move that Mariners fans (or Mets fans) are anxiously anticipating, though it does deplete the Mariners’ pitching depth a bit and likely afford Seattle with a bit of financial compensation from the team with which Lawrence will ultimately sign. Which club that is, at this point, remains unclear.

Lawrence, 31, has spent most of the past two seasons in the Mariners organization, struggling to a 6.20 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 65 1/3 innings at the Major League level. He’s been solid in the minors, however, compiling a 3.73 earned run average while averaging seven strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings pitched over the life of 262 2/3 frames — mostly as a starter. The new arrangement will surely provide Lawrence with a greater financial guarantee than he’d have earned with another season of bouncing between the Majors and Triple-A.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 7:27pm CDT

With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there figure to be several players agreeing to pre-tender deals to avoid arbitration today. Many players who agree to terms prior to the deadline will be fringe non-tender candidates and, as such, are likelier to sign for less than they’d been projected in order to avoid a non-tender. We’ll keep track of today’s players who are avoiding arbitration in this post (with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…

The Royals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with both Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) that Cuthbert will earn $850K, while Hahn’s deal contains an $800K base salary. Both were definitive non-tender candidates, as Cuthbert batted just .194/.282/.301 in 117 plate appearances this past season. Hahn, meanwhile, didn’t pitch in 2018 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required “primary repair” surgery — a similar, but less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that is perhaps familiar to Royals fans after Seth Maness previously underwent the procedure.

Earlier Updates

The Twins have agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract with utility infielder Ehire Adrianza, thus avoiding arbitration, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. A light-hitting defensive specialist, Adrianza batted .251/.301/.379 with career-highs in plate appearances (366), home runs (six) and doubles (23). His level of playing time increased due to the suspension for Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco as well as the midseason trade of Brian Dozier. Adrianza had been projected at $1.8MM.
The Athletics announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with catcher Josh Phegley by agreeing to a one-year deal. Heyman tweets that Phegley will earn $1.o75MM next season. Phegley, 31 in February, has posted a .255 OBP in each of the past two seasons while struggling to keep his average above the dreaded Mendoza Line. Phegley has some pop, however, and has controlled the running game quite well throughout his career (33 percent caught-stealing rate, including 35 percent in both 2017 and 2018). He’s the only catcher on Oakland’s 40-man roster at present, so the A’s will surely be looking for some additions. Phegley had been projected at $1.2MM.
The Rockies announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Chris Rusin. He’ll earn $1.6875MM next year — a $400K raise over his 2018 salary — tweets Heyman. Rusin was widely considered a non-tender candidate on the heels of a disastrous season in which he was clobbered for a 6.09 ERA with a career-worst 4.3 BB/9 mark through 54 2/3 innings. He’s only a year removed from a terrific season out of the Colorado bullpen, however, during which he totaled 85 innings of 2.65 ERA ball in 60 appearances. He’d been projected to earn $1.7MM.
The Royals have avoided arbitration with lefty Brian Flynn in advance of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, the team announced. His contract is worth $800K, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). Flynn, 29 in April, appeared in 48 games out of the Kansas City bullpen in 2018 and pitched to a 4.04 ERA with 5.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9 and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. It’s the first trip through the arbitration process for Flynn, whom the Royals initially acquired in the 2014 trade that sent righty Aaron Crow to the Marlins. In parts of three seasons since that trade, Flynn has compiled 133 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with 91 strikeouts against 58 walks and a grounder rate north of 50 percent. As things currently stand, Flynn will join Tim Hill as one of the top two lefty options in an inexperienced Kansas City bullpen. General manager Dayton Moore and his staff figure to be on the lookout for some veteran additions to supplement that relief corps this offseason.

Mets Sign Dilson Herrera To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 5:02pm CDT

The Mets announced that they’ve signed infielder Dilson Herrera to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.

Herrera, 25 in March, was long considered one of the best prospects in the Mets organization after being acquired from the Pirates in a 2013 trade. He made his MLB debut with the organization at the age of 20 back in 2014 and saw MLB action with the Mets in 2015 as well, but a series of shoulder issues slowed his development. The Mets ultimately flipped Herrera to the Reds, alongside young lefty Max Wotell, in the trade that sent Jay Bruce to New York. Herrera spent two-plus seasons in the Cincinnati organization but appeared in just 53 games late in the 2018 campaign, posting a dismal .184/.268/.414 slash in 97 plate appearances.

Though he was a seldom-used bench piece for the Reds after his call to the big leagues, Herrera did enjoy a solid season with their Triple-A affiliate in 2018. Through 50 games and 208 plate appearances, Herrera hit .297/.367/.467 with seven homers and 10 doubles.

International Notes: McGuire, Kelly, Dominguez

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 4:55pm CDT

A few notes on some the market for players heading overseas and (potentially) returning from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization…

The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve signed righty Deck McGuire, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. McGuire will earn a $600K salary in addition to a $100K signing bonus, and his contract can max out at a total of $950K if he reaches all of the built-in incentives. McGuire, 29, pitched 38 2/3 innings this past season between the Angels and Blue Jays but struggled to a 6.16 ERA in that brief stint. A former first-round draft pick, McGuire has a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer, but he’s had more success in the upper minors in recent seasons. The right-hander posted a strong 2.79 ERA in 168 innings with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate in 2017 and a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings with Toronto’s top affiliate in Buffalo this past season.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has spent the past three seasons pitching in Korea, could make his way back to the United States as a free agent this winter. Kelly, who turned 30 in October, has never pitched in the Majors but has thrived as a starter in the hitter-friendly KBO. Over the past two seasons with the SK Wyverns, Kelly has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). It’s not clear whether MLB clubs will view him as a starter or a reliever, but his strong results in Korea figure to lead to some degree of interest, regardless. Passan notes that Kelly will formally become eligible to sign on December 1.
Former big league third baseman Matt Dominguez had his option declined by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and will once again be a free agent this winter. The 29-year-old didn’t fare well in a small sample of games overseas this past season and hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2016. Dominguez was the Astros’ primary third baseman in 2013-14, clubbing 37 home runs in that time, but he’s had limited big league opportunities since. He’s a career .264/.309/.410 hitter through 570 Triple-A games and came with a strong defensive reputation earlier in his career.

Angels Acquire Tommy La Stella, Release Jabari Blash

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2018 at 3:05pm CDT

The Angels announced today that they’ve acquired infielder Tommy La Stella from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. To clear a spot for La Stella on the 40-man roster, the Halos requested unconditional release waivers on outfielder Jabari Blash.

The trade of La Stella to the Angels comes one day after the Cubs acquired infielder Ronald Torreyes in a trade with the Yankees. The pair of moves seems to indicate that Chicago is content to move forward with Torreyes as their primary backup infielder headed into the 2019 season. The swap will also likely save the Cubs a slight bit of money; La Stella is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.2MM next season, while Torreyes was projected at $900K. The latter is more of a true utility option anyhow, given his ability to play shortstop — a position that La Stella has never played in the Major Leagues.

From the Angels’ perspective, adding La Stella is a sensible move. His composite .274/.360/.396 batting line through 512 plate appearances over the past three seasons fits general manager Billy Eppler’s preferred mold of an OBP-driven offensive profile, and La Stella provides the Angels with a much-needed left-handed bat. La Stella, 30 in January, can give the Angels some cover at both second base and at third base next season, and the Angels have enough right-handed bats to comfortably platoon him if they desire. Then again, while La Stella was always shielded from left-handed pitching in Chicago, he does have a solid .278/.366/.383 batting line against lefties in his career — albeit in a tiny sample of 133 plate appearances.

Blash, also 29, has displayed light-tower power in the minor leagues but managed just a .186/.306/.307 slash in 324 plate appearances between the Padres and Angels to this point in his MLB career. He’s a lifetime .274/.394/.606 hitter in nearly 1300 Triple-A plate appearances, however, so he could draw interest elsewhere on a minor league contract or, speculatively speaking, from a club overseas.

Padres’ Franmil Reyes To Undergo Knee Surgery

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2018 at 11:08pm CDT

Padres outfielder Franmil Reyes will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and will be sidelined for the next four to eight weeks, tweets Dennis Lin of the Athletic. The team expects him to be ready for Spring Training.

Reyes, 23, sustained the injury while playing in the Dominican Winter League, where he was off to a ludicrous start through 13 games: .444/.510/.689 with three homers and two doubles in 51 plate appearances. The knee issue will likely end his DWL season, though even an eight-week timeline would have him back up to speed by the end of January.

The injury is of some note, however, given that Reyes has seen his name surface in past trade rumors. San Diego has somewhat of a crunch in the outfield corners, with Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero all on the 40-man roster, to say nothing of center field options like Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski.

Certainly, a relatively minor knee surgery won’t eliminate trade interest in the young slugger. But, the added health questions could nonetheless give some teams pause and/or lower the amount that an interested party would be willing to surrender in a theoretical deal. The Padres’ efforts, to this point in the offseason, have seemingly focused on potentially shedding the remainder of Myers’ contract, but they’ll undoubtedly explore a wide swath of options with regard to their outfield as the Winter Meetings approach.

Reyes, listed at a hulking 6’5″ and 275 pounds, made his MLB debut with the Padres this past season after laying waste to Triple-A pitching early in the year. The big man somewhat quietly posted a .280/.340/.498 batting line and clubbed 16 home runs through just 285 MLB plate appearances — production that’s all the more impressive when considering the spacious nature of San Diego’s Petco Park. Reyes has his flaws — he graded out below average in right field and struck out at a 28.1 percent clip — but there’s plenty about which to be encouraged when looking at his under-the-radar rookie campaign.

Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin Available On Trade Market

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2018 at 10:02pm CDT

Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli and Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin are both generating some degree of interest on the trade market, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (all Twitter links). The Jays are willing to pay a “significant” portion of the final $20MM on Martin’s contract, per Passan, and have already discussed him with other clubs. Cervelli’s on-base skills are also appealing to catcher-needy teams, Passan notes, and the Pirates are willing to listen to offers for the veteran backstop. Both players are entering the final season of multi-year contracts.

Cervelli, 33 in March, just wrapped up a vastly superior offensive season to Martin and is owed a more palatable $11.5MM in 2019 before reaching free agency next winter. That price point is obviously steep for the typically low-budget Pirates, but other clubs around the league may not consider it excessive for a player who hit .259/.378/.431 with a career-high 12 home runs in 404 plate appearances last season. That OBP is hardly anything new for Cervelli, who has reached at a .370 clip or better in five of the past six seasons, with a .342 mark in 2017 serving as the lone exception.

Cervelli also halted an outstanding 39 percent of stolen-base attempts against him, though his once-superlative framing skills have checked in below the league average in each of the past two seasons, per Baseball Prospectus. He also rated below average in terms of pitch blocking in 2018.

The 35-year-old Martin is in a much different spot. He’ll make $20MM in the final season of a backloaded five-year, $82MM contract next season, and while his 15.9 percent walk rate was sensational, his overall .194/.338/.325 batting line leaves plenty to be desired. Martin was undoubtedly harmed by a .234 average on balls in play, but that’s perhaps not as unlucky as some might think at first glance.

While that .234 mark is well south of his career .283 BABIP, Martin saw his line-drive rate drop by nearly 10 percent this past season — from 23.7 percent in 2017 to 14 percent in 2018. He also posted a career-worst 19.4 percent infield-fly rate and hit the ball on the ground at a career-high 51.2 percent clip. For a 35-year-old catcher whose once-surprising speed has largely evaporated, that’s not a great trend.

Defensively, Martin’s once-excellent caught-stealing rate has waned over the past three seasons (22 percent in 2018 — six percent below the league average), but Baseball Prospectus still grades him as a premium framer and blocker.

The availability of both Cervelli and Martin only further adds to a market that has a vast supply of options but also a rather substantial amount of demand. Marlins star J.T. Realmuto is obviously the prize of the catching class but also surely comes with a substantially greater cost of acquisition than either Cervelli or Martin. Cleveland’s Yan Gomes, too, is said to be available. Free agency, meanwhile, offers the likes of Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Martin Maldonado and Robinson Chirinos, among others.

As for demand, there’s no shortage of contenders or hopeful contenders who could use upgrades. The Dodgers, Astros, Rockies, Angels, Twins, Red Sox, Mets, Brewers and Phillies could all conceivably explore the market, as could a number of teams that are either in the midst of a rebuild or retooling process (e.g. Mariners, Tigers). And, of course, if any of Cervelli, Martin or Realmuto is moved, those catchers’ former clubs could look to the market to add a replacement option at a lower price.

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