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Diamondbacks Notes: Beeks, Graveman, Gallen, Kelly, Miller

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Prior to yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels, the Diamondbacks placed left-hander Jalen Beeks on the 15-day injured list due to lower back inflammation, with a retroactive placement date of July 8.  Right-hander Kendall Graveman was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move.

It doesn’t appear as Beeks’ injury is overly serious, as manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that the hope is that Beeks will miss just the minimum 15 days, with the retroactive time and the All-Star break factoring into that number.  This means Beeks should be able to return in plenty of time before the July 31st trade deadline, which is perhaps noteworthy if the 46-49 Diamondbacks end up being sellers.

Beeks is just a couple of days removed from his 32nd birthday, and he has a 4.39 ERA, 51.8% grounder rate, 22.9% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate over 41 relief innings this season.  While the K% and BB% numbers aren’t anything special, Statcast has liked Beeks’ work on the whole, and his ability to induce soft contact and keep the ball on the ground have helped the southpaw deliver some respectable numbers.  Beeks’ numbers are somewhat inflated by two nightmarish outings against in the Marlins in late June, which accounted for eight of the 20 earned runs he has allowed all year.

Should Arizona indeed decide to sell, Beeks is a natural trade chip as an impending free agent, and plenty of clubs should have interest in an inexpensive veteran lefty.  The D’Backs signed Beeks to a one-year, $1.25MM deal just before Opening Day, after Beeks was released at the end of spring camp from a previous minor league deal with the Astros.

An IL stint this relatively close to the deadline could throw a wrench into Beeks’ trade candidacy, as he has now joined the long list of Diamondbacks pitchers sidelined by injuries.  Graveman has been on the IL twice this season, first due to a lumbar strain and then this latest placement due to a hip impingement that cost him a little over a month of action.  These two IL stints have limited Graveman to just 10 appearances and 9 1/3 innings this season.  Graveman’s ERA is 8.68, though one six-run implosion against the Reds on June 7 is largely responsible for Graveman’s ungainly bottom-line statistics.

The D’Backs have faced such a swath of pitching injuries that it may impact their deadline plans as either buyers or sellers.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both impending free agents and oft-cited trade candidates, yet according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks “are unlikely” to move both starters at the deadline for the simple reason that the club still needs to fill innings for the remainder of the year.  The Snakes have already seen their starter depth depleted by Tommy John surgeries to Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Walston, while Tommy Henry underwent an internal brace procedure in late June.  A shoulder strain has also sidelined Cristian Mena until at least the second week of August, as per his timeline on the 60-day IL.

Gallen is in the last few months of his final arbitration-eligible season, while Kelly is in the last year of what has now become a three-year, $24MM contract when Arizona made the easy call to exercise its $7MM club option on the right-hander last November.  Kelly has been the significantly better of the two pitchers this season with 2.0 fWAR to Gallen’s 0.1 fWAR, though Gallen is perceived to have the higher upside as a former front-of-the-rotation type.  The Diamondbacks figure to receive plenty of offers for both pitchers prior to July 31, so the decision of who stays and who goes will just come down to which offer the Snakes prefer.

In another injury update, Lovullo said Shelby Miller will be visiting Dr. Keith Meister to get a second opinion about the forearm strain that sent Miller to the 15-day IL earlier this week.  Lovullo said that surgery may well be an option for the reliever, but Miller is also still considering treatments that would allow him to return to action at some point in 2025.

At the very least, it certainly doesn’t seem like Miller will be able to return before the deadline, which reduces or (more realistically) wipes out his trade value.  This injury has cast a pall over what had been an outstanding season for Miller, a minor league signing who has delivered a 1.98 ERA over 36 1/3 bullpen innings for Arizona.

D-Backs GM Mike Hazen Talks Trade Deadline

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The Diamondbacks dropped this afternoon’s series finale against the White Sox, falling to 41-39. They’re 3.5 games back with four teams in front of them in a crowded NL Wild Card picture. As Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week’s MLBTR podcast, Arizona is one of the most interesting bubble teams five weeks from the deadline. They’re still in the race but have been battered by injuries, leaving them shorthanded as they enter a pivotal stretch of the season.

General manager Mike Hazen spoke with ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Tuesday and said he has started to receive calls from opposing clubs gauging their interest in selling. Hazen jokingly likened the rival executives to sharks circling but noted that the D-Backs aren’t interested in dealing away talent at this point.

“We have good players, so I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able to play good baseball and stay in this and then get those guys back and maybe be able to add on at the deadline,” the GM said, referencing the recent injured list placements to right fielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno. Arizona has also recently lost Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, but none of them will be back this season. Hazen acknowledged there may eventually be “a critical mass of injuries” that forces them to reconsider but added he “still (thinks they) have every opportunity to be competitive.”

It’s what should be expected from a bubble team’s GM this far out. It’d be far more surprising if the D-Backs were already open for business. They’ll know more in a month about their place in the standings and on the statuses of Carroll (wrist fracture) and Moreno (broken index finger). Hazen conceded, however, that playoff spots will be tough to come by in a National League that has ten teams that are above .500 at the moment.

If they’re still within a few games of a playoff spot in July, they’ll be motivated to buy. The D-Backs narrowly missed the postseason a year ago. Ownership subsequently approved a franchise-record payroll to support an excellent lineup. Their pitching plans have largely been decimated by injuries and/or underperformance from their free agent acquisitions. That has kept them around .500 despite an offense that trails only the Dodgers and Cubs in runs — one year after they led MLB in scoring.

The ideal outcome is that the team plays well enough that the front office can add to the pitching staff, especially in the bullpen. If things go in the opposite direction over the next month, they’d have no shortage of veteran players to shop. Josh Naylor, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eugenio Suárez, Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks are all impending free agents. Gallen seems unlikely to re-sign, and it’s tough to see the Diamondbacks retaining both Naylor and Suárez while again blocking Jordan Lawlar’s path to infield at-bats. The D-Backs could consider a qualifying offer for any of the first four players, though it’s unlikely they’d QO all four since there’d be an argument for each of them to accept.

Naylor and Suárez have been middle-of-the-order run producers and would be among the top rental bats if the D-Backs made them available. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that the Yankees have shown some early interest in Suárez with a likely infield need. Acquiring a third baseman would free them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base and move DJ LeMahieu to a utility role. Suárez is currently day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on Monday. He sat out the final two games of the Chicago series.

Gallen has had a poor season but has the pedigree to attract attention. The 36-year-old Kelly is churning out another low-3.00s ERA season while striking out a quarter of opponents. Miller, who is playing for barely more than the league minimum after signing an offseason minor league contract, would be a top bullpen target. He’s carrying a sub-2.00 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate while pitching his way into the ninth inning. Beeks has pitched well in a setup capacity and would be a target for teams seeking left-handed relief.

The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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D-backs Sticking To Five-Man Rotation

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes further crowded a rotation that had at least six starters in the mix. While there’s been talk of a possible six-man rotation in Arizona since that Burnes deal, manager Torey Lovullo said at D-backs camp this week that team is not considering that at this point (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven starters for five spots: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson. The first four are largely locked into place. Burnes and Gallen are Cy Young-caliber arms when healthy. Kelly has been a steady midrotation arm for the Snakes since signing out of the KBO in the 2018-19 offseason. Rodriguez’s first year in Arizona was marred by injury, but he’s signed three more years and has a lengthy track record.

Montgomery’s status in Arizona has been a talking point throughout the winter. The Diamondbacks signed him to a one-year, $25MM contract with a vesting $20MM player option for the 2025 season. The left-hander pitched enough to trigger that option but nowhere near well enough to decline it in favor of a return to the open market. Signing just days before Opening Day last season, Montgomery missed spring training, rushed through an accelerated ramp-up in Triple-A and never appeared to be himself. He pitched 117 innings but was rocked for a 6.23 earned run average with career-worst walk and strikeout rates.

D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called Montgomery’s performance out late in the season, publicly lamenting the role that he’d played in bringing the left-hander to his organization. “I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it,” Kendrick said in September. “They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.”

Pfaadt, 26, would give the D-backs an upside arm at the back of the staff. The former top prospect hasn’t yet found his stride over a full big league season but has shown glimpses of the potential that made him so well regarded. He looked to have found his stride last year, logging a 3.98 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through his first 24 starts, but Pfaadt was hit hard in late August and for much of September. He mixed in one late-season gem — seven innings, one run, 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee — but even with that showing still posted an ERA north of 7.00 over his final eight starts. He finished the year at a 4.71 mark but did pile up 181 2/3 innings.

Nelson, who turned 27 in December, made 27 appearances this past season — 25 of them starts — and recorded 150 2/3 innings of 4.24 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging-strike rate were below average (well below, with regard to the latter), but Nelson’s 5.4% walk rate was outstanding.

There are other options on the 40-man roster, but they’re likely to be viewed as depth candidates, barring a spring breakout. Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry and Blake Walston are all on the 40-man roster and have all made their big league debuts, but they’d likely only be called upon in the event of multiple injuries — at least with the current roster construction.

Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade of this winter, but no such deal has come to fruition. It’s still possible the D-backs could find a taker for a portion of the contract or swap him out for a comparably priced veteran on an underwater deal (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte), but for now, Montgomery will get a full spring buildup and look to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season.

If the D-backs can find some kind of trade that sheds a portion of the Montgomery money, any savings could be reallocated to other needs. Most notably, they’ve been in the market for a closer throughout the winter but have yet to add an established ninth-inning arm. Arizona’s payroll is projected for a franchise-record $195MM, per RosterResource. It’s not clear whether Kendrick is willing to push things further after already ponying up to sign Burnes (six years, $210MM), acquire Josh Naylor in a trade (one year, $10.9MM) and re-sign Randal Grichuk (one year, $5MM). Barring the signing of a veteran like David Robertson or Kyle Finnegan, the D-backs will look inward and lean on A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel as their top late-inning arms.

Diamondbacks Not Close To Any Pitching Trades

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes added a new frontline arm to a rotation that was already operating at a surplus on paper.  Burnes joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson, giving the Snakes an enviably deep group of starting pitchers.  The D’backs had already been drawing trade interest in this group even before Burnes was added, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Burnes signing wasn’t made with any other pitching swaps immediately on the horizon.

According to Piecoro, no “other deals [are] lined up or even close” involving Arizona’s pitchers, as the Diamondbacks will continue to take a measured view of the market.  A source tells Piecoro that the D’Backs will likely “spend the coming days fielding calls from teams still in the hunt for starters, including those that were in on Burnes.”  The D’Backs aren’t in any particular rush to complete a trade any time soon, as having more than a full rotation in place before New Year’s Eve gives the club plenty of time to figure out the best possible offer.

It also isn’t entirely out of the question that the Diamondbacks stand pat on their starters, especially if an injury emerges to a starter during their offseason training, or during Spring Training.  Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery all missed significant time with injuries last season, so there is obvious value in having extra pitchers on hand should any more health issues create openings in the rotation.  Operating with a six-man rotation is also a possibility, in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh for what the D’Backs hope can be an extended run through the playoffs.

Given how the Burnes deal reportedly came together just within the last week when Burnes himself approached the D’Backs, it isn’t surprising that the signing wasn’t part of an immediate plan to re-model the pitching staff.  Such two-step transactions are usually hard to pull off, though the Diamondbacks were part of such a set of moves from the Guardians just last week — Arizona acquired Josh Naylor from the Guards, and Cleveland then signed Carlos Santana that same day to immediately fill Naylor’s spot as the everyday first baseman.

The fact that Burnes signed with a team that was seemingly already set for starting pitching gives GM Mike Hazen even more leverage in shopping his hurlers.  Such known Burnes suitors like the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Giants are still in need of pitching, to say nothing of the many other starter-needy clubs on the market that weren’t willing or able to meet Burnes’ asking price.

Nothing seems to have changed in terms of which starters are most prominently on Arizona’s trade block.  Gallen and Kelly are both free agents next winter but don’t seem likely to be dealt, as a team source told Piecoro that the team’s focus in on “trying to put the best team on the field in 2025.”  Nelson is controlled through the 2027 season and Pfaadt through the 2029 season, so the Diamondbacks would probably only move either if a longer-term asset (likely a position player) could be obtained in return.  The D’Backs might not mind moving the $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s contract, but the club would certainly have to sell low and eat some of that money in the wake of E-Rod’s injury-plagued down year.

That leaves Montgomery as still the chief candidate to be dealt before Opening Day.  Montgomery’s trade value is also at a low ebb after his rough first year in Arizona, and his $22.5MM salary for the 2025 season.  Owner Ken Kendrick’s public criticism of Montgomery following the season only increased the probability that the left-hander would be pitching elsewhere next year, yet again, the Burnes signing gives the D’Backs some flexibility in this regard.  The Diamondbacks technically don’t have to trade Montgomery if an acceptable offer for another starter comes their way, and offers for Montgomery might improve if other teams become increasingly desperate to add pitching.

Diamondbacks’ Starters Drawing Trade Interest

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As free agent starters begin to find new homes — Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Hendricks have all signed in the past two weeks — interest in the Diamondbacks’ collection of rotation arms has “started to pick up,” general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have at least six starters on the roster at present: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery.

Of the six, Montgomery is the most obvious trade candidate, following a rough 2024 showing and owner Ken Kendrick’s public, verbal thrashing of the player. In October, Kendrick openly lamented ever pushing his front office to sign Montgomery late in the 2023-24 offseason, calling it a “horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did” and “our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Montgomery unsurprisingly exercised a $22.5MM player option even after being called out by Kendrick — a straightforward decision for a pitcher coming off an injury-shortened year with career-worst marks in ERA (6.23), strikeout rate (15.6%) and walk rate (8.3%).

For all the focus placed on Montgomery’s struggles last year, the other veteran lefty signed by Arizona last offseason also fell well short of expectations. Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM pact with the Snakes but was limited to just 10 starts after opening the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He pitched 50 innings of 5.04 ERA ball while showing diminished life on his four-seamer and sinker. Rodriguez is owed $20MM for the coming season, $21MM in 2026 and $19MM in 2027. He’s also guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a $17MM mutual option for the 2028 season — an option that could automatically vest based on his innings tallies in 2026-27. While Montgomery’s contract is underwater, the three years and $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s pact very likely make him even harder to unload.

Any of  the other four arms in Arizona’s rotation would be hard to pry loose. Ace Zac Gallen is a Cy Young contender when healthy, evidenced by fifth- and third-place finishes in 2022 and 2023 balloting. He missed about a month of action with a hamstring strain in 2024 and flashed worse command than usual (relative to his excellent standards, anyhow), but any team would love to have the right-hander. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM in his final season of club control before becoming a free agent next winter. Gallen is not being shopped, to be clear. Hazen even chuckled at the mere notion of Gallen being a prominent trade candidate in a mid-November appearance on Arizona Sports 98.7’s Wolf & Luke Show (2:35 mark). That’s unlikely to stop other teams from trying.

Kelly, like Gallen, is a free agent next offseason. He missed more than three months in 2024 with a shoulder strain but was generally effective when healthy, logging a 4.03 ERA with a slightly below-average 21% strikeout rate and a strong 6.3% walk rate. Arizona made an easy call to exercise a $7MM club option on Kelly for the upcoming season.

Nelson and Pfaadt are both controllable and thus quite valuable to the Snakes. The 26-year-old Nelson is under club control for four more seasons and just tossed 150 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate in 2024. Those numbers are skewed by a slow start, but from July onward, Nelson posted a 3.05 ERA, 24.8 K% and 5.0 BB% in 82 2/3 frames. He’s not yet eligible for arbitration.

Pfaadt, also 26, paced the D-backs with 181 2/3 innings and 32 starts. His 4.71 ERA doesn’t stand out, but his 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, 3.61 FIP and 3.65 SIERA are all far more encouraging. He might’ve worn down a bit late in the season as he pushed through that new career-high workload, as his worst months were August and September. A disproportionate amount of the damage against Pfaadt this season came in one nightmare September outing, wherein the Brewers tagged him for eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Lopping off even that one start would cause his season-long ERA to drop by nearly 40 points. Regardless, the former top prospect is a 2025 breakout candidate when considering his pedigree and rate stats that far outpace his pedestrian earned run average. Of the arms on the big league staff, he’s probably the most difficult for another team to acquire.

There’s depth even beyond that sextet. Right-hander Drey Jameson will be back from 2023 Tommy John surgery next year. He’s already had some big league success. There are another five starters on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A, all of whom have minor league options remaining and at least a bit of MLB experience: Yilber Diaz, Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena and Tommy Henry. Few organizations boast a stockpile of arms so deep.

All of that is to say — it’s hardly a surprise that clubs are calling the D-backs about their starters. The same is true of their outfielders, as Hazen already acknowledged a couple weeks back. Piecoro writes that (naturally) Montgomery is both the likeliest to move and the pitcher whom the team would most strongly prefer to deal. Hazen stated that Kendrick’s comments regarding the left-hander have “zero” impact on the urgency to trade him, though there’s likely some public-facing lip service at play there.

Piecoro adds that the D-backs would be willing to take on another contract of some note in return for Montgomery (if said player filled a roster need) or perhaps pursue more of a traditional salary dump, where they shed as much of the contract as possible for little to no return. Of note, Hazen suggested that if he’s to ultimately move Montgomery in deal that is primarily rooted in salary relief, the trade would need to come together before the bulk of quality free agents come off the board: “At some point, it doesn’t make sense because your pivot moves are picking at the edges rather than getting somebody (who is more of a target).”

D’Backs Exercise Option On Kelly, Decline Option On McGough; Pederson Declines Mutual Option

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The Diamondbacks will be exercising their $7MM club option on Merrill Kelly for the 2025 season, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The team will also be declining their end of a $4MM mutual option on right-hander Scott McGough, as McGough will head into free agency with a $750K buyout.  He’ll be joined by Joc Pederson, who took a $3MM buyout after declining his end of a $14MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

All three decisions were expected, even with Kelly missing over half of the season due to a teres major strain.  The right-hander was limited to 73 2/3 innings over 13 starts, with a 4.03 ERA and some pretty unimpressive Statcast numbers, save for a solid 6.3% walk rate.

Assuming good health for Kelly next year, however, the $6MM decision (there was a $1MM buyout attached) was still an easy one for Arizona to make, given how well he has generally pitched over his six seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.  Kelly didn’t make his MLB debut until age 30, after the D’Backs signed him to return to North America after a successful four-season run in the KBO League.  Over the course of two separate contracts with Arizona, Kelly has now earned $37.5MM over a seven-year span since returning from South Korea.

The D’Backs were hoping for more reclamation success when they signed McGough to a two-year, $6.25MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason, as McGough had pitched well over four seasons with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.  Unfortunately, McGough posted a 4.73 ERA in 70 1/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen in 2023, and then a 7.44 ERA in 32 2/3 frames this season.  The right-hander’s home run and walk rates were constant issues, while McGough’s strikeout rate also plummeted from 28.6% in 2023 to just 16.7% this season.

Pederson almost exclusively faced right-handed pitching this season, and was utilized only as a designated hitter.  Albeit within this limited scope, Pederson enjoyed a monster year, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers over 449 plate appearances.  Among all position-player free agents, only six posted a higher fWAR than Pederson’s 3.0 mark in 2024, and only Juan Soto had a higher wRC+ than Pederson’s 151.

While Pederson resisted being a full-time platoon player or DH earlier in his career, embracing his specialist role has obvious upside, and could lead to another nice payday as he enters his age-33 season.  No shortage of teams could use Pederson’s power, and a return to the D’Backs is certainly a possibility given how well the veteran slugger performed in his first season in Arizona.  Randal Grichuk also declined his end of a mutual option, leaving the Diamondbacks without both pieces of their unofficial lefty-righty platoon.  Depending on the asking prices, the D’Backs could perhaps look to re-sign one of Pederson or Grichuk, and then look another complementary bat to fill the other side of the virtual platoon.

Diamondbacks Notes: Kelly, Nelson

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The Diamondbacks suffered an injury scare during their game against the Brewers this evening when right-hander Merrill Kelly walked off the mound after five innings due to what Arizona brass later indicated was a bout of cramping in his right calf.

As noted by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, that’s the second time in three starts that Kelly has exited early due to a cramping issue, after he departed his start on the 11th after just four innings due to cramping in his right hamstring. Cramping doesn’t seem to be an immediately concerning injury for the 35-year-old veteran to be suffering from but the fact that Kelly has had two starts cut short due to the issue, both of which involved his lower right leg, in such short order is somewhat worrisome for a Diamondbacks club that both has its eyes on a second consecutive postseason run and has not yet clinched its spot in the playoffs.

After an excellent 2023 season where he pitched to a 3.29 ERA and 3.85 FIP in 30 regular season starts before dominating with a 2.25 ERA in four starts during the club’s pennant-winning playoff run, Kelly got off to a similarly strong start early this year with a 2.19 ERA and 3.78 FIP through the middle of April, but was promptly sidelined by a teres major strain that wound up keeping him on the shelf for the majority of the season. The right-hander finally returned to action last month but hasn’t been nearly as successful since returning from injury.

In seven starts spanning 38 1/3 innings of work prior to tonight’s game, Kelly has surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.44 FIP while striking out just 17% of opponents. That’s a worrisome dip for a pitcher who punched out more than a quarter of batters faced just last year, and it’s further exacerbated by Kelly’s sudden penchant for the long ball; prior to tonight’s shortened scoreless outing, Kelly had surrendered eight home runs since returning from the IL. Only six qualified starters have surrendered more homers in that time. Tonight’s five innings of shutout baseball seemed to represent a step in the right direction for Kelly with the postseason just over the horizon, so long as he remains healthy enough to pitch.

With Zac Gallen sure to front the club’s playoff rotation, an injury to Kelly that prevents him from starting postseason games for Arizona would seemingly line lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and youngster Brandon Pfaadt up to start behind Gallen in the playoffs, though (much like Kelly) Rodriguez has struggled since coming off the IL last month while Pfaadt has a 7.58 ERA in September. Both pitchers seem more likely to start playoff games for the Diamondbacks than lefty Jordan Montgomery, who has struggled to a 6.23 ERA and 4.59 FIP since he signed with the club back in March and was demoted to the bullpen late last month.

Fortunately, the club could have another option. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, the club remains optimistic that right-hander Ryne Nelson will be able to return from the injured list prior to the end of the season next week. The righty was placed on the shelf last weekend due to shoulder inflammation but was scheduled to throw a bullpen session today and is first eligible to return to action on September 26. The 26-year-old has impressed in his second season as a regular starter for Arizona, with a roughly league average 4.33 ERA and a stronger 3.76 FIP in 147 2/3 innings of work this year. Should Nelson return from the injured list next week as expected, he’ll be able to join the club’s postseason rotation and give the Diamondbacks some flexibility if Kelly’s exit this evening proves serious.

Diamondbacks Reinstate Merrill Kelly From 60-Day IL, DFA Humberto Castellanos

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The Diamondbacks have reinstated veteran starter Merrill Kelly from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. To make room for the right-hander on the active roster, righty reliever Scott McGough has been optioned to Triple-A Reno. Meanwhile, fellow righty Humberto Castellanos has been designated for assignment to free up a spot on the 40-man.

Kelly, now 35, was a durable and dependable starter for the Diamondbacks from 2021-23, making 90 starts and pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.16 SIERA. He got off to a strong start over his first four outings in 2024, putting up a 2.19 ERA and 3.88 SIERA in 24 2/3 innings pitched, but he suffered a teres major strain in mid-April. The right-hander will make his highly anticipated return this afternoon against the Phillies, and the D-backs will have their full rotation healthy for the first time this season. Manager Torey Lovullo now has six healthy starters at his disposal: Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson, and Kelly.

McGough, 34, signed a two-year deal with Arizona during the 2022-23 offseason. He was a serviceable middle reliever last season, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and 3.49 SIERA over 70 1/3 innings, but he has struggled in 2024. Over 29 innings, McGough has a 6.83 ERA and 5.63 SIERA. This is the third time he has been optioned this season.

As for Castellanos, 26, he has failed to make much of an impression over 32 games (16 starts) for the Diamondbacks at the big league level. Since the D-backs claimed him off of waivers from the Astros during the 2020-21 offseason, he has pitched to a 5.29 ERA and 4.89 SIERA over 100 1/3 innings as both a starter and a reliever. His minor league stats aren’t much better; he has a 4.59 ERA and 6.64 FIP at Triple-A this year. If Castellanos passes through waivers unclaimed, he will have the right to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A and elect free agency.

Diamondbacks Notes: Kelly, Moreno

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Merrill Kelly’s last big league pitching appearance was on April 15, as the Diamondbacks right-hander looked terrific in his first four starts before being sidelined by a right shoulder strain.  After almost four months on the shelf, Kelly now looks to be nearing a return, with manager Torey Lovullo hinting to reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that Kelly will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list in time to start on Sunday when the D’Backs host the Phillies.

It won’t be official until Kelly gets through a bullpen session slated for Friday, but as Lovullo put it, “you guys can read between the lines” about the team’s plans.  “You get to a certain pitch count…when things get beyond three innings [in rehab starts], it gets real.  We like when it gets in that 80-pitch range.  We fire downrange when we’ve gotten into that spot before.  So stay tuned.”

Kelly already passed the three-inning threshold in his first minor league rehab assignment last Tuesday, when he threw 62 pitches over four innings with the high-A Everett affiliate.  Given both his long layoff and the fact that he has faced only A-ball competition, it is a little surprising that this will apparently be Kelly’s only rehab outing, but Lovullo said that “reports were really good” and that Kelly “did exactly what we wanted him to do.”  The manager noted that Kelly would be on something of a limited pitch count on Sunday, in the range of 75-80 pitches as the D’Backs ease him into action.

Now in his sixth season with Arizona, Kelly has become a rotation stalwart for the Snakes, posting a 3.75 ERA over his 775 1/3 regular-season innings.  The righty’s first MLB season (in 2019) saw him post 183 1/3 innings, and he then averaged 179 frames over the 2021-23 seasons, as Kelly missed a couple of months in that stretch with some relatively minor injuries but was otherwise a durable arm.  He gained more national attention during the Diamondbacks’ run to the NL pennant last fall, posting a 2.25 ERA in 24 playoff innings.

With Kelly on the verge of returning and Eduardo Rodriguez making his season debut earlier this week, the D’Backs will finally have their first-choice starting rotation intact for the first time all season.  Ironically, this reinforced rotation comes just as the team has taken a big blow behind the plate, as Gabriel Moreno was placed on the 10-day injured list on Tuesday with a left adductor strain.

Moreno will miss “several weeks” recovering, Lovullo told Arizona Sports (video link), and a more solid timeline could be known once the catcher “gets some second opinions” and a broader examination of his MRI results.  While Lovullo didn’t give any indication that Moreno’s injury could end his season, such a possibility can’t be ruled out simply due to the calendar and the fact that Moreno looks to be out until September at the earliest.  Any kind of setback could shut Moreno down entirely for the remainder of the 2024 campaign, and perhaps into whatever postseason activity could await the Diamondbacks.

The former star prospect has continued to impress in his second full Major League season, hitting .262/.344/.385 with five home runs over 314 plate appearances while delivering impressive defense.  There wouldn’t have been an easy way for the D’Backs to replace Moreno even if he’d gotten hurt before the trade deadline, but if he is looking at an extended absence, the pickings are slim for the Snakes to bolster the catching ranks.  Jose Herrera and rookie Adrian Del Castillo comprise Arizona’s catching corps, but Andrew Knizner was just claimed off waivers from the Rangers today to give the Snakes a bit more experienced depth behind the plate.

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