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Merrill Kelly

Padres Notes: King, Kelly, Darvish

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The Padres reunited with Michael King this past week on a three-year deal that offers him the opportunity to opt out in each of the next two offseasons. As noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune, however, negotiations between the two sides didn’t kick into gear until very recently.

Sanders notes that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller instructed manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla to message King less than two weeks ago to see if King was interested in returning to San Diego. At the outset of the offseason, the right-hander initially preferred a return to the east coast, where he pitched for years with the Yankees after growing up in Rhode Island and going to college in Boston. King indicated to reporters (including Sanders) that while some teams had “blown [him] away” with strong offers, he didn’t believe those teams had the roster and commitment to winning necessary to field a World Series contender in 2026. King added that he was prioritizing winning “for the duration of the contract,” and that he was willing to take less in order to make that happen.

It seems that ended up being what he did with San Diego, which Sanders adds was the only west coast team King had interest in playing for. While King’s $75MM guarantee came in just shy of the $80MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander at the outset of the offseason, it’s nonetheless a strong deal given the higher average annual value and opt-out opportunities after each season. With that said, King clearly was trending towards a nine-figure contract prior to his injury woes this past season. It’s not inconceivable that there was a team willing to look past the medical concerns and offer him that sort of deal this winter, given King’s comments. The Marlins, Cubs, Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox were among the teams known to have interest in King’s services this winter, though Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees ultimately never made an offer to the righty.

With King in the fold alongside Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, Preller indicated that he’s satisfied with the front of the club’s rotation. It seems the Padres had a strong desire to add to the front of their rotation this winter, however, as Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that San Diego made a “competitive” offer to right-hander Merrill Kelly before landing King. Kelly ultimately landed with the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40MM deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that Kelly received a three-year offer from a west coast team that would’ve guaranteed the right-hander “more than $50MM,” and it’s not clear if the Padres were the team references in Rosenthal’s report, it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if the “competitive” offer Lin reports that San Diego made to Kelly was in that ballpark. A three-year offer in that range could theoretically have been similar to the four-year, $55MM contract the team signed Pivetta to last winter.

Perhaps Preller’s desire to add a front-of-the-rotation arm this winter in part stems from uncertainty surrounding Yu Darvish’s future. The veteran right-hander underwent UCL surgery last month that will keep him out of commission for at least the entire 2026 campaign. What’s more, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported earlier this week that Darvish is not certain if he’ll pitch again following his rehab process. The 39-year-old hurler was limited to 15 starts this past year due to injury and struggled when he did take the mound, with a 5.38 ERA in 72 innings of work. Given that he’ll celebrate his 41st birthday during the 2027 season, it’s perhaps not a shock that Darvish is uncertain about his ability to return to a major league mound after this latest health-related setback.

Of course, the possibility of Darvish stepping away from baseball is complicated by his contract situation. The veteran righty is under contract for $16MM in 2026 and is set to make $15MM per year in both 2027 and 2028. If Darvish were to retire, as Acee has reported he’s contemplating, he would stand to lose out on at least some of that money. It’s also possible that Darvish and the Padres could negotiate a buyout, not unlike the process the Angels and Anthony Rendon are reportedly in the midst of ahead of the final year of his contract with the organization. Perhaps that sort of buyout could help create financial flexibility for the budget-conscious Padres, who have had to get creative with their contracts in recent years in order to remain competitive and continue spending in free agency.

Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly

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The Diamondbacks officially announced a reunion with Merrill Kelly on a two-year contract with a 2028 vesting option. The Apex Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $40MM. He receives a $2MM signing bonus and will make successive $17MM and $21MM salaries. If Kelly reaches 170 innings in 2027, he’ll lock in a $12MM salary for the 2028 season. If he reaches 185 innings in ’27, that ’28 guarantee will jump to $14MM. The D-Backs cleared a roster spot earlier by flipping Kyle Backhus to the Phillies.

The 37-year-old Kelly returns to the team with which he has spent nearly his entire major league career. Though initially drafted by the Rays in the eighth-round of the 2010 draft, Kelly made his big league debut with the Diamondbacks back in 2019 after a four-season stay in Korea as a member of the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now known as the SSG Landers). After a pedestrian rookie campaign in the majors where he pitched to a league-average ERA in 32 starts, Kelly managed to fashion a role for himself as one of the better mid-rotation arms in the majors.

Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Kelly has pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 108 starts. He’s struck out 23.1% of his opponents while walking 7.7% in that time, leaving him with a 3.81 FIP. Although a 4.03 SIERA and other so-so peripherals cast him as a step down from your prototypical front-end starter, the veteran has managed to remain a durable and productive rotation piece. Kelly particularly endeared himself to Arizona fans when he delivered a brilliant 2.25 ERA over 24 postseason innings during the club’s run to the World Series in 2023.

Amid a disappointing 2025 season where the Diamondbacks were ravaged by injuries to everyone from star closers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk to newly-signed ace Corbin Burnes, the team engaged in a sell-off at trade deadline and shipped Kelly to the Rangers in exchange for a trio of pitching prospects. Kelly put up fairly pedestrian numbers across ten starts with the Rangers: a 4.23 ERA and near-matching 4.18 FIP across 55 1/3 innings of work.

Even while the veteran was in Texas, an offseason reunion with the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon. Kelly spoke fondly of Arizona and expressed an openness to re-signing when asked about the possibility while the Rangers were visiting Chase Field in the season’s final few weeks. “Definite” interest in a reunion with Kelly was reported on Arizona’s side shortly before last week’s Winter Meetings, and now the sides have come together on a deal.

Turning to the deal itself, Kelly’s $40MM guarantee clocks in just ahead of the two years and $36MM MLBTR predicted for the right-hander when ranking him as the #25 free agent in this offseason’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. The Snakes were aggressive both in their offer and the timing of the deal; while the free agent market for position players and especially relievers has kicked into gear already, Kelly is just the third starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 to sign a contract this offseason. He joins Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, both of whom received guarantees that slightly eclipsed MLBTR’s predictions.

Now that he’s set to return to Arizona, Kelly stands as the favorite to start for the Diamondbacks on Opening Day this year. He’ll join a rotation that already added Michael Soroka and will reunite with former teammates Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. Burnes could be a factor later in the season but is not expected to pitch until sometime in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. While the team’s rotation certainly looks much more complete with Kelly back in the fold, bringing the right-hander back shouldn’t stop the team from pursuing other rotation additions after the club’s pitching staff finished 19th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA last year.

Of course, adding beyond this could prove to be easier said than done. The Diamondbacks are projected for a payroll just north of $171MM in 2026, according to RosterResource. That rises to north of $205MM for luxury tax purposes. GM Mike Hazen has suggested that, while Arizona’s payroll would likely be moving downward from its 2025 level, that would still leave the team with room to spend. The club spent $188MM on its payroll last season, however, meaning they currently sit less than $17MM from that mark.

Perhaps that leaves enough wiggle room to reunite with Paul Goldschmidt on an affordable one-year deal, a move the Diamondbacks have been said to be contemplating, but Kelly will surely go down as the team’s biggest expenditure unless an increase in payroll is approved or the team makes a trade that clears salary. To that latter point, the hot stove has been burning with Ketel Marte trade buzz in recent weeks. Moving Marte would certainly clear payroll off the books (and simultaneously add some young rotation options as part of the return), though Hazen has consistently downplayed the likelihood of a deal surrounding Marte actually coming together.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the Diamondbacks and Kelly were finalizing a two-year, $40MM deal. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported the option specifics. David Brandt of The Associated Press had the salary structure.

D-backs Have Shown Interest In Reunions With Kelly, Goldschmidt

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The D-backs are in the market for rotation help this offseason, and there’s mutual interest between the team and longtime right-hander Merrill Kelly, reports John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. A reunion with righty Zac Gallen is seen as less likely, he adds. Beyond the “definite” interest in re-signing Kelly, Gambadoro adds that Arizona is open to the idea of bringing Paul Goldschmidt back to Phoenix —  albeit in more of a part-time/platoon role at first base.

Kelly, 37, spent six and a half seasons in the Arizona rotation before being traded to the Rangers at this summer’s deadline. The former Rays farmhand broke out in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2015-18 and had never pitched in the majors before the D-backs took a two-year flier on him in the 2018-19 offseason.

That modest investment proved to be a masterstroke. Kelly went on to sign an extension with the Snakes and ultimately made 162 starts with a 3.74 ERA over the course of 953 innings during his time in Arizona. All three of the pitching prospects the Snakes picked up in the trade sending Kelly to Texas now rank among the top 20 or so within the Diamondbacks’ system; Baseball America recently ranked righty David Hagaman their No. 5 prospect. Lefty Kohl Drake and righty Mitch Bratt are further down BA’s list of D-backs prospects but are also closer to the majors. Both could debut in 2026.

Bringing Kelly back to Chase Field after receiving a solid trade return would be a nice sequence for the D-backs. Even when the season was still ongoing, Kelly was asked (during a return series to Arizona as a visitor) about whether he’d be open to returning as a free agent.

“I’ve voiced my love for this place,” Kelly said at the time (video link via 98.7’s Jake Garcia). “I’ve talked to the front office tirelessly about being a D-back for life. That was really my plan. That was real. That was genuine. … So it’s never off the table. Coming home is very attractive, not only for me but also for the family aspect of it. But at the same time, I’ve put myself in a position to have what I hope to be a decent market, so I’m going to have to make a hard decision, business-wise, but coming back and being a D-back is never off the table.”

The D-backs have made no secret about the fact that they’re cutting payroll after topping $200MM for the first time in franchise history last year. With multiple rotation spots and several bullpen roles to fill, that could be a tall order. However, Kelly isn’t going to command the type of long-term megadeal that some of his free agent counterparts can seek, given that he’ll pitch next year at age 37. He’s likely capped at a two-year deal on the open market, which surely only enhances his appeal to the Diamondbacks. Arizona currently projects for a payroll around $145MM, per RosterResource.

With that in mind, a Goldschmidt reunion also makes some sense for a team that could use a right-handed platoon bat at first base. Pavin Smith seems likely to enter the season as Arizona’s primary option at either first base or designated hitter (depending on how righty-swinging Tyler Locklear looks next spring). Smith has hit .262/.357/.475 with 17 homers in 446 plate appearances across the past two seasons, but he’s been limited by injury and nearly all of that production came versus right-handed pitching. The lefty-swinging Smith has just 47 left-on-left plate appearances since 2024 and is a career .222/.296/.301 hitter versus southpaws.

Goldschmidt, at 38 years old, is no longer the annual MVP threat he once was. He spent 2025 with the Yankees and got out to a torrid start before limping to a sub-par finish over the final four months of play. His .274/.328/.403 batting line was about league average, but Goldschmidt batted only .226/.277/.333 (69 wRC+) from June 1 onward.

One thing he managed to do all season, however, was to pummel left-handed pitching, just as he always has. Goldschmidt posted an awful .247/.289/.329 line against righties but decimated lefties at a .336/.411/.570 clip in 168 turns at the plate. He earned $12MM last year, and coming off a poor finish with glaring platoon splits, he’s probably looking at a further pay cut. Critics might label a reunion as a nostalgia bid for a player who is past his prime, but Goldschmidt can still provide value in a limited role. And, with someone this talented, a rebound to better numbers against righties can never be expressly ruled out; Goldschmidt didn’t hit right-handers at all in 2024-25, but he slashed .259/.359/.446 against them as recently as 2023.

D-backs’ GM Downplays Payroll Concerns

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Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has already publicly indicated that his team’s payroll will decline from the franchise-record $200MM set in 2025, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the front office is handcuffed in terms of its ability to pursue additions this winter. General manager Mike Hazen recently pushed back on the idea that he might have to subtract some salary via trade, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic:

“I don’t really feel that way, honestly. That’s not the impression I have. Are we going to be doing what we did last offseason? Probably not. But I don’t think I have zero wiggle room or avenues to pursue players.”

RosterResource currently projects the Snakes for about $143MM in 2026 payroll, and that’s before potential non-tenders among the arbitration class. Injured lefty A.J. Puk, who underwent UCL surgery this summer, is projected for a $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) but might not even pitch next season in his final year before free agency. Righty Kevin Ginkel ($3MM projection) posted a 7.36 ERA in 25 2/3 MLB innings. Outfielders Alek Thomas ($2.2MM projection) and Jake McCarthy ($1.9MM projection) both had well below-average seasons at the plate; McCarthy, in particular, was one of the 20 worst hitters in MLB, sitting with the 18th-worst wRC+ mark among the 348 hitters who tallied at least 200 turns at the plate.

Assuming some of that group departs, the Diamondbacks will find themselves with a $135-140MM projection for next year’s Opening Day payroll. Even if ownership plans to scale back payroll by as much as $25MM — and that’s just an arbitrary number for illustrative purposes — Hazen could reasonably have as much as $40MM to spend on next year’s payroll alone.

All of this pushes back somewhat against the notion of a potential trade of star second baseman Ketel Marte. Hazen has already called trading Marte or any of his star hitters “unlikely,” although because he’s acknowledged that he’ll hear offers as a matter of due diligence, some optimists have clung to the idea that Marte might be available.  Trading him would bring a haul of talent, but it’d also just create another hole which needs to be filled.

Arizona’s shopping list this winter is lengthy, to say the least. Hazen & Co. will need to add at least two starters to a rotation that currently consists of Ryne Nelson and a pair of pitchers who struggled badly in 2025: righty Brandon Pfaadt and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will miss most or all of next year. Zac Gallen is a free agent. Most of the organization’s top pitching products heading into 2025 pitched poorly and/or suffered an injury this past season. The bullpen needs a nearly complete overhaul.

In a separate piece, Piecoro suggests that reunions with Gallen and fellow righty Merrill Kelly (whom the D-backs traded to the Rangers back in July) seem unlikely if the two indeed command the type of $17MM+ annual values many (MLBTR included) have predicted for both pitchers. There’s no firm indication that either is squarely off the table, to be clear, but the D-backs need to add at least two starters and relievers apiece, and that’s to say nothing of the infield corners or the bench. Young sluggers Tyler Locklear and Jordan Lawlar could get looks at first base and third base, respectively, but neither has proven himself in the majors. Lawlar has also been getting a look in center field, which stands as another potential area of need after Thomas struggled so much with the bat in 2025 (and really, in his overall parts of four MLB seasons to date).

Diamondbacks Notes: Gallen, Kelly, Rotation, First Base

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Zac Gallen is one of the more intriguing pitchers on the free agent market this winter, as interested clubs will have to balance the right-hander’s solid track record up against his shaky 2025 season.  Theoretically, the situation could present an opening for Gallen to accept a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, though John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7FM Radio (multiple links) feels “there is no chance he accepts it.”

This winter’s qualifying offer is estimated to be worth roughly $22MM.  While a nice one-year payday, Gallen is undoubtedly looking for much more in a longer-term commitment as he tests the market for the first time.  Even if his struggles this year inevitably lower his asking price, baseball’s ever-present need for pitching means that Gallen should be able to land some kind of acceptable multi-year pact.

Scott Boras (Gallen’s agent) has a long history of finding such deals for his clients, though Boras has also explored relatively shorter-term contracts with opt-out clauses for players who are entering free agency on the heels of so-so platform years.  It isn’t hard to imagine Gallen signing such a deal, and then if he returns to form in 2026, enacting an opt-out clause to immediately return to free agency.  Obviously there’s some risk in betting on himself in such a fashion, plus next year’s market has the added uncertainty of labor unrest and a potential lockout as the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Gallen posted a 4.83 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate over 192 innings in 2025, with the ERA and K% both standing out as career worsts.  Pretty much all of Gallen’s Statcast numbers were below the league average, and he was continually plagued by the home run ball — Gallen’s 31 homers allowed were the third-most of any pitcher in baseball.  The inflated number is related in part to the number of innings Gallen tossed, though his barrel rate and hard-hit ball rates didn’t surpass the 26th percentile of all pitchers.

The good news for Gallen is that he seemed to get on track over the season’s final two months.  After posting a 5.60 ERA over his first 127 innings, he improved to a 3.32 ERA over his last 65 frames and 11 starts.  Gallen’s turn-around came directly after the trade deadline, and had he started pitching better a little earlier, it is quite possible he already would’ve been gone from Arizona considering the Diamondbacks’ other deadline sells.

Ken Kendrick is a known fan of Gallen, and the D’Backs owner stated earlier this week that it isn’t “out of the realm of reality” that the righty could be re-signed.  Within that same interview, however, Kendrick said that “we will not be spending at the same level” as in 2025, though the Diamondbacks still plan to have a competitive payroll and are intent on winning next year.

Whether this adds up to a salary number that can work for both the D’Backs and Gallen’s camp remains to be seen.  If Gallen did reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere, Arizona would receive a compensatory draft pick just after the first round of the 2026 draft.  Landing an extra pick in the 31-36 overall range would be a decent consolation prize if Gallen did depart, especially if the Diamondbacks could add starting pitching elsewhere at a lower price.

For instance, a reunion with Merrill Kelly has been speculated on basically ever since Kelly was traded to the Rangers at the deadline.  Kelly was open about his desire to stay in Arizona both before and after the trade, and Kelly would be available at a lower price than Gallen given their ages (Kelly turns 37 in a couple of weeks, and Gallen turned 30 last month).  Gambadoro feels the Diamondbacks will pursue one of Gallen or Kelly but not both, leaving one rotation spot open for a younger pitcher until Corbin Burnes is ready to return from Tommy John surgery.

Between Arizona’s pitching needs and the team’s desire to lower payroll, some other areas of the roster might receive less focus.  For instance, Gambadoro thinks the D’Backs will probably stand pat at first base, with Pavin Smith getting the bulk of at-bats and Tim Tawa or Tyler Locklear facing as the right-handed hitting side of the platoon.  Bringing in a veteran bat for the first base/DH mix would also seem logical, even if such an acquisition isn’t likely to be as high profile as last offseason’s trade for Josh Naylor.

Smith appeared in only eight games after July 5, as an oblique strain and then a quad strain cost him essentially all of the back half of the season.  Smith hit .258/.362/.434 with eight home runs over 288 plate appearances in 2025, facing right-handers in all but 24 of those trips to the dish.  The result was a very solid 123 wRC+ for the season, yet almost all of Smith’s production came during a scorching-hot April, and his strikeout rate ballooned upwards to an ungainly 31.9%.  Getting more out of Tawa or Locklear would go a long way towards solidifying the Diamondbacks’ first base platoon, but the unproven duo has only 390 combined Major League PA between them.

Red Sox Promote Connelly Early, Place Dustin May On Injured List

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5:50pm: Early’s promotion is official. May lands on the 15-day IL, retroactive to September 6, with elbow neuritis. Boston created the necessary 40-man spot by recalling infielder Vaughn Grissom from Triple-A and placing him on the 60-day injured list. Grissom’s season is over due to plantar fasciitis.

10:46 am: The Red Sox will promote pitching prospect Connelly Early to make his major league debut tonight versus the A’s, as first reported by Foul Territory. Katie Morrison-O’Day of MassLive.com noted earlier in this week that Early, a 2023 fifth-round pick, was scratched from his start at Triple-A Worcester because the Sox wanted him to be ready if the big league club had a need this week. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo wrote yesterday that Early was “very much in play” to make his MLB debut within the next couple of days.

Early isn’t on the 40-man roster, so Boston will need to make corresponding transactions to open space on both the active and 40-man rosters. Righty Dustin May will head to the injured list to open an active roster spot, per Foul Territory and Cotillo.

The 23-year-old Early has thrived in both Double-A and Triple-A this season, combining for 100 1/3 innings with a 2.60 earned run average, a huge 31.9% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. The 6’3″, 195-pound lefty is sitting 93.4 mph on his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a deep variety of secondary offerings including a slider, changeup, sinker, cutter and curveball (listed in descending order of usage rate). He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 50% clip and has thus far posted an excellent 14.3% swinging-strike between Double-A and Triple-A.

Early entered the season ranked tenth among Boston prospects at Baseball America but has climbed to sixth, even after the draft added several new entrants to the top tiers of every system in the sport. Scouting reports at BA, FanGraphs and MLB.com tout Early’s changeup as a plus offering. There’s a wider range of opinions on his slider, but the general consensus is that it at least has the potential to be an above-average, if not plus offering. The Virginia product will join fellow rookie Payton Tolle as a fairly high-profile September addition who could not only help into and throughout the postseason but could very well be auditioning for a 2026 rotation spot.

Although Early wasn’t on the 40-man roster on Sept. 1, he’ll still be eligible for postseason play. Players only need to be in the organization to have eligibility. The Sox will technically need to petition to have Early added to their postseason roster as an injury replacement, but teams do that every year. Depending on May’s timetable, he could simply be added as a replacement for the same pitcher he’s replacing on the active roster today.

There was at least one scenario where the Red Sox wouldn’t have had Early as an option to call up. When speaking with the Diamondbacks about Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen prior to the trade deadline, Early was of interest to Arizona’s front office, Alex Speier and Tim Healey of the Boston Globe report. The Sox were willing to discuss lefty Brandon Clarke but deemed Early too steep a price to pay in those talks, per the Globe duo. Kelly went to the Rangers for a package of three pitching prospects. Gallen stayed in Arizona and will likely receive a qualifying offer.

As for May, it’s not yet clear exactly what type of injury he’s facing. Boston acquired him from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, sending 2024 first-round pick James Tibbs III (whom they’d acquired from the Giants for Rafael Devers) back to Los Angeles in return.

That trade hasn’t gone at all as the Red Sox hoped. May has made six appearances, five of them starts, and pitched to an ugly 5.40 ERA with a lower strikeout rate (19.5%) and higher walk rate (9.8%) than he’d logged in what was already a shaky season with Los Angeles (4.85 ERA). He’s a free agent at season’s end and doesn’t necessarily have a spot on the postseason roster set in stone, so if May needs even three weeks on the injured list, it’s at least feasible that his Red Sox tenure is effectively over. Certainly, both he and the organization will hope he can get back in minimal time and pitch his way into postseason consideration, but time will tell whether that’s plausible.

Diamondbacks Notes: Gurriel, Kelly, Gallen

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The D-backs may have lost one of their regulars last night. Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was carted off the field after a non-contact injury in left-center. Both he and Blaze Alexander — who was making his first career appearance in center field — were tracking a drive to the left-center gap off the bat of Rowdy Tellez. Alexander laid out to make an exceptional diving grab, but Gurriel only pulled up and pivoted in the final second or so before a potential collision. Though the two avoided impact, Gurriel dropped after pivoting and had to be helped to a cart (video link).

The team didn’t have an initial diagnosis on Gurriel last night. Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters after the game that they’d scheduled an MRI for today and would know more after the fact (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Presumably, he’ll have an update before tonight’s game against the Rangers — assuming there’s a confirmed diagnosis after one wave of imaging, anyhow. We should know more about Gurriel’s status before too long, but there aren’t many instances where a player has to be carted off the field but returns to the lineup in short order.

With the D-backs 6.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and 11 back in the division, it’s likely they’ll proceed with caution if there’s an injury of even modest note. Arizona’s playoff odds are down around 1% at this point, and if Gurriel was fortunate enough to avoid any major damage, there’s little sense rushing back and risking something more severe by playing at less than 100%.

The 31-year-old Gurriel has had perhaps the least-productive season of his lengthy MLB tenure. He was well on his way to his fourth career 20-homer season, with 19 big flies under his belt already, but Gurriel’s .248/.295/.418 slash is about 6% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. If last night’s incident led to an injury that cuts his season short, that would be the first below-average season of his career at the plate. Gurriel entered the season as a .279/.324/.461 hitter in 3009 big league plate appearances.

There are contractual aspects to consider as well. Gurriel is playing on a three-year, $42MM contract but has the right to opt out of his deal at the end of the current season. Given the slightly below-average rate stats, it seems unlikely he’d have walked away from the remaining year and $18MM ($13MM salary in 2026, plus a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027).

However, Gurriel had been hitting quite well of late, with a .273/.315/.530 slash over the past three weeks. If he’d kept mashing like that in the final four weeks, he’d have pulled his season-long batting line back above average. That’s plausible, given his track record, and in that scenario he might’ve been tempted to return to the market and see what free agency had to offer ahead of his age-32 season.

Speaking of the D-backs and free agency, Arizona fans will be encouraged to hear now-former D-backs starter Merrill Kelly express a strong openness to re-signing in the offseason. Arizona traded Kelly to the Rangers prior to the trade deadline, netting three pitching prospects in return (Mitch Bratt, Kohl Drake, David Hagaman). With the Rangers visiting the D-backs at the moment, Kelly told Jake Garcia of 12 News that a return in free agency is something he’d absolutely consider (video link).

“I’ve voiced my love for this place,” Kelly said. “I’ve talked to the front office tirelessly about being a D-back for life. That was really my plan. That was real. That was genuine. … So it’s never off the table. Coming home is very attractive, not only for me but also for the family aspect of it. But at the same time, I’ve put myself in a position to have what I hope to be a decent market, so I’m going to have to make a hard decision, business-wise, but coming back and being a D-back is never off the table.”

Arizona is going to need arms for the upcoming season, so a return would make sense for both parties. Corbin Burnes will miss most or all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Zac Gallen is a free agent. Left-handers Blake Walston (March) and Tommy Henry (June) also had Tommy John surgery this year. Prospects Yilber Diaz and Cristian Mena have both struggled and/or been injured. Next year’s rotation currently projects to include Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson, with little else in the way of certainty.

Bringing Kelly back would obviously go a long way toward stabilizing the group, and it could very likely be done without making a long-term commitment. He’ll turn 37 in October, so anything beyond two years would register as a surprise. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Max Scherzer (three years, $130MM in 2021) and Rich Hill (three years, $48MM in 2016) are the only free agent starting pitchers in the past decade to command a deal greater than two years at 37 or older.

As for Kelly’s longtime rotation-mate, Gallen, it remains to be seen how seriously the Snakes will pursue a reunion. However, Gallen is doing his best to flip the script on a disappointing season in the run-up to free agency. It’s too little, too late to salvage the team’s season in all likelihood, but Gallen fired six shutout innings with eight punchouts against the Dodgers in L.A. on Aug. 29 and, in doing so, dipped his ERA back under 5.00. A 4.94 earned run average still isn’t going to stand out, but Gallen has been pitching well for two months now.

Dating back to July 1, the former All-Star touts a 3.74 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate in 65 innings. He was particularly sharp in August, with a 2.57 ERA in 35 innings. Gallen started six games last month and delivered five quality starts.

Once the Diamondbacks opted not to trade Gallen, it seemed likely that they would make him a qualifying offer at season’s end — struggles notwithstanding. However, a prolonged stretch of quality results on the mound should only make that decision easier for the team. A big September performance will also make it easier for Gallen, who from 2019-24 logged a combined 3.29 ERA in 815 1/3 innings, to turn down a one-year offer in the $22MM range. His recent hot streak makes his results in the season’s final four weeks worth monitoring extra closely; Gallen will take the mound tomorrow against the Rangers and look for his eighth quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound.

MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…

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Rangers Acquire Merrill Kelly

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The Rangers announced the acquisition of starting pitcher Merrill Kelly from the Diamondbacks for pitching prospects Mitch Bratt, Kohl Drake and David Hagaman. Texas designated first baseman Blaine Crim for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kelly is the most significant of three deadline pickups for the Rangers. They also deepened their bullpen by adding Phil Maton and Danny Coulombe. The Rangers leaned even harder into their identity as a pitching and defense team after evidently being dissatisfied with the asking prices on top hitters.

The 36-year-old Kelly was arguably the best rental starter who changed hands. He has turned in a 3.22 earned run average through 128 2/3 innings. That comes with a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage and a league average 7.4% walk rate. Kelly doesn’t have massive swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s a plus command artist with a long track record of mid-rotation performance. This will his third sub-4.00 ERA season within the past four years. Last year’s 4.03 earned runs per nine is his worst mark since 2021.

That’s rock solid production that’ll make Kelly a high-end #3 starter in Texas. He’d slot behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi as the expected playoff rotation if the Rangers qualify. They have plenty of work to do in that regard — they’re currently tied with Seattle for the final AL Wild Card position — but opponents would have a very tough time scoring against them in October. Patrick Corbin and Jack Leiter figure to round out the starting five for the time being. That could push Kumar Rocker back to Triple-A.

Kelly is playing on a $7MM salary. It’s the final year of what turned out to be a very team-friendly extension that he signed with the Snakes early in the ’22 season. Texas is taking on roughly $2.22MM for the stretch run. They also added around $950K on Coulombe’s deal and picked up roughly $634K on Maton. The Rangers have wanted to stay underneath the $241MM base luxury tax threshold. RosterResource unofficially estimates them around $236M. The actual number is likely to be above that by season’s end as players trigger incentives, but it seems the Rangers at least stayed on the border of the threshold while making a trio of acquisitions on the pitching staff.

Arizona had already dealt Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor as they sold off most of their impending free agents. The biggest question on deadline day was whether they’d trade both Kelly and Zac Gallen. Ultimately, they only found what they considered a satisfactory offer on Kelly. Gallen will finish the season in the desert and quite likely receive and reject a qualifying offer. The D-Backs valued the compensatory draft pick they’d receive in that scenario more than whatever teams were willing to trade for Gallen, who has underperformed this season.

Kelly’s superior year allowed the Snakes to get a trio of minor league arms. They focused their trade returns on upper level young pitching. Drake, a 6’5″ left-hander, is the highest regarded of their new prospects. He placed fifth in the Texas system at MLB Pipeline and ninth at Baseball America. BA feels the former 11th-round pick projects as a multi-inning reliever, while Pipeline projects him as a back-end starter.

Drake has struggled over four Triple-A starts but turned in a 2.44 ERA through 12 appearances in Double-A. He sits around 93 MPH and has a four-pitch mix with advanced command. He’s 24 years old and will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He should debut at some point next year at the latest.

Bratt, 22, is a 6’1″ lefty who was selected out of high school in the 2021 draft. The Canadian southpaw has spent the whole season at Double-A Frisco. He has pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a plus 28.5% strikeout percentage and minuscule 4.3% walk rate in 18 appearances. Bratt placed ninth in the system at Pipeline and 14th at Baseball America. He’s a good athlete with above-average to plus command but fringe stuff that could make him a fifth starter. He’ll also need to go on the 40-man roster this offseason.

The 22-year-old Hagaman is a little further off. He was a fourth-round pick out of West Virginia last summer. He underwent Tommy John surgery last year and has been limited to eight professional appearances. Both BA and Pipeline ranked him in the middle third of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects. The 6’4″ righty has an impressive three-pitch arsenal but struggled with command in college. He could be a long-term reliever but will get a chance to develop as a starter.

Arizona’s player development staff now has a lot of young pitching talent with which to work. Most of those players could be on the MLB radar by next season. In the meantime, veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani will stretch out from long relief to take Kelly’s rotation spot (relayed by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). He has a 3.86 ERA in 23 1/3 frames and should be a serviceable innings source so the D-Backs don’t need to press their younger arms into early action.

As for Crim, he’ll be placed on waivers in the next few days. The 28-year-old first baseman got a brief look earlier in the season when the Rangers optioned Jake Burger to Triple-A. He went 1-11 with a walk. Crim has a career .283/.374/.487 batting line in more than 1600 plate appearances at the top minor league level.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.5 first reported the Rangers were nearing a Kelly deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed there was an agreement in place. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Arizona was acquiring three prospects, including Drake and Hagaman. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was first on Bratt’s inclusion. Image courtesy of Charles Leclaire, Imagn Images.

Red Sox Interested In Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara

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The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5MM this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7MM this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17MM salary, then there’s a $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Reiner, Imagn Images

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